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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Seamus Milne really is going then that could help effort

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  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Which is more palatable?
    TBH, US TV subs are superb value. I buy high end kitty dinner from Royal Canin - ditto for canines.

    Again, it's all choices. I cough for stuff I see as important, and buy Tesco Value whatever parsnip for filler that doesn't.

    There's no nutritional difference between Tesco Bog Standard Cat Biscuit, and everything else - they just taste better.
  • Bizzare state of affairs: in less than 6 months New Labour moderates seem to have gone from the most in favour of the EU/free movement, to those most clearly advocating change.

    On the other hand, some Conservatives worried about the economic impact of Brexit have gone back the other way.

    Bizarre.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,077
    The verdict on Corbyn from my work colleagues is in.

    'Plonker'
    'No fear for the Tories'
  • Bizzare state of affairs: in less than 6 months New Labour moderates seem to have gone from the most in favour of the EU/free movement, to those most clearly advocating change.

    On the other hand, some Conservatives worried about the economic impact of Brexit have gone back the other way.

    Bizarre.

    The circle is now complete,

    Back to the 70s and 80s, when the Tories were in favour of the EC because it was good for the economy, and Labour were worried it would impact the workers
  • Bizzare state of affairs: in less than 6 months New Labour moderates seem to have gone from the most in favour of the EU/free movement, to those most clearly advocating change.

    Rubbing the right's face in diversity was fun. Sinking into oblivion is less so.
  • 4) Zionist Conspiracy?
    Does the report say manufactured in Russia (which we all know) or launchers currently or very recently in the Russian Militarys custodianship?
  • So the odds on Denis Skinner becoming Shadow Home Secretary?
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    edited September 2016

    The problem for Nick's idea is that many people use the 'well, its a strain on the public services' as a way of avoiding talking about their real complaint - which is they are living in a country they no longer recognize.
    It also assumes that the electorate has absolute trust in the ability of the Labour party to translate spending rises into commensurate increases in public service quality. Labour is attempting to use its two biggest weaknesses, immigration and wasteful spending, as a selling point. Are we absolutely positive Corbyn isn't a CCHQ plant?
  • SeanT said:

    Trump definitely had the best lines about insecurity, jobs, foreign policy, he just fluffed them badly then started banging on about his amazing non-racist nightclub in Long Beach with its sexy Muslim bargirls.

    If you were minded to ignore the gibberish, it was possible to see that he might be the better president - certainly for the average Yank who hasn't seen median income improve in two decades or so.

    Hillary was just boilerplate. I can't recall a single thing she said. I was simply wondering at what point she would cough (she didn't).


    Trump just rambled nonsense, I can't remember anything he said other than stop and "frisk" and the story of his 10 year old being a tech whizz.

    If your claim is found to be true i.e. Joe the Plumber wasn't impressed with Clinton, it would be when The Clinton-Bot-2000 malfunctioned and spent 5 minutes going Stop and frisk , racist, racist, system racist, everybody racist, racist, racist, racist, racist....I am sure the black vote loved it, but Joe the Plumber I would think less so.
  • Just had an aurora alert from British Geomagnetic Survey. That Australian outage isnt linked to Solar Activity by any chance?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I am sure the black vote loved it, but Joe the Plumber I would think less so.

    The Trump spinners tried to make the debate about 'media bias' rather than anything substantive discussed at the debate. It appears they may have had some success.
  • Trump just rambled nonsense, I can't remember anything he said other than stop and "frisk" and the story of his 10 year old being a tech whizz. .

    That was a spectacular missed goal. The subject being cyber security, he failed to connect it to Hillary's email-server issue.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    SeanT said:

    Trump definitely had the best lines about insecurity, jobs, foreign policy, he just fluffed them badly then started banging on about his amazing non-racist nightclub in Long Beach with its sexy Muslim bargirls.

    If you were minded to ignore the gibberish, it was possible to see that he might be the better president - certainly for the average Yank who hasn't seen median income improve in two decades or so.

    Hillary was just boilerplate. I can't recall a single thing she said. I was simply wondering at what point she would cough (she didn't).


    Mexico, China, China, Mexico, China, China, China, Mexico, Mexico.
  • taffys said:

    I am sure the black vote loved it, but Joe the Plumber I would think less so.

    The Trump spinners tried to make the debate about 'media bias' rather than anything substantive discussed at the debate. It appears they may have had some success.

    There wasn't anything substantive discussed. It was a horrific level of debate from both. 90 minutes with virtually no policy content.
  • Mr. Eagles, at that rate, Shadow Cabinet reshuffles will be determined by the Grim Reaper.

    Mr. Glenn, rubbing people's face in diversity worked wonderfully well in Rotherham, didn't it?

    Mr. kle4, and here was I thinking you just wanted to hear more about the Second Punic War.

    On XCOM 2: that was part of my reasoning. Tomb Raider comes with a stack of DLC. Although XCOM 2 has plenty available, you've got to pay extra. The Enemy Unknown/Enemy Within approach last time suggests a GOTY version may well emerge. Even if it doesn't, the price will decline sooner or later.

    I don't play many independent games, so that may've just passed me by (I did play Banner Saga. Quite liked it, but not as much as I thought I might).

    Mind you, Manveer Heir's anti-white views on Twitter will help me save money, as I shan't be getting Mass Effect: Andromeda. I'd grown tired of Bioware's DLC approach, and having Captain Black Lives Matter working on it was the icing on the cake.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Rubbing the right's face in diversity was fun. Sinking into oblivion is less so.
    But... everyone English loves having their identity erased and sneered at!

    We've no heritage worth 2p. We're all racist bigots who want to only trade with Kent or something.

    It's so immensely insulting, I can't form the words.

    #ProudPevenseyBayNormanEffOff
  • Rubbing the right's face in diversity was fun. Sinking into oblivion is less so.
    Perhaps you are struggling to join the dots.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited September 2016

    That was a spectacular missed goal. The subject being cyber security, he failed to connect it to Hillary's email-server issue.
    Absolutely. That's the thing that gets missed in all of this. If Clinton was up to something or not by trying to keep all her emails private is one thing, the fact her actions endangered the US security is quite another.
  • Perhaps you are struggling to join the dots.
    ?

    I've said that I blame New Labour's immigration drive and going out on a limb among the major EU economies after the A8/10 accession in large part for the Brexit outcome.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Jobabob said:

    Quite so. Going to the supermarket is the biggest waste of time known to the human species.
    Now there you are wrong. You guys don't know you are born in the time wasting department ;)

    When we started developing our first batch of properties and needed to get a water supply installed so we could mix concrete, I was slightly surprised to discover that we had to attend a three hour seminar with our local water company which when it came down to it was all about how to fill in your application form for the water supply, a document which contained about six fields one of which was the certificate number from the certificate of having attended the said seminar.

  • taffys said:
    Gaddafi must have thought they were a Welsh IRA.

  • Trump just rambled nonsense, I can't remember anything he said other than stop and "frisk" and the story of his 10 year old being a tech whizz.

    He used a lot of words. A lot of the voters aren't paying enough attention to follow the sentences and the words that appeal to them vary from voter to voter, so maybe it's a good strategy just to say lots of words.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Just had an aurora alert from British Geomagnetic Survey. That Australian outage isnt linked to Solar Activity by any chance?

    Ah that'll be Jezza's charisma having a warm up for his speech later. Thought it might interfere with the solar system's electromagnetic balance. Hold on tight for when he gets going later.
  • Just had an aurora alert from British Geomagnetic Survey. That Australian outage isnt linked to Solar Activity by any chance?

    No, Hurricane Muhammad by all accounts...
  • He used a lot of words. A lot of the voters aren't paying enough attention to follow the sentences and the words that appeal to them vary from voter to voter, so maybe it's a good strategy just to say lots of words.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UIE_MRAhEA
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    taffys said:

    I am sure the black vote loved it, but Joe the Plumber I would think less so.

    The Trump spinners tried to make the debate about 'media bias' rather than anything substantive discussed at the debate. It appears they may have had some success.

    Given almost 70% think the media lies about it - I find their fact checking most amusing.

    I ignore all of them and those who post assertions here. It's all so agenda driven, no one is credible now.

    How on Earth can a source most think are liars, be purveyors of truth? It's laughable delusion. Zip cred.
  • He used a lot of words. A lot of the voters aren't paying enough attention to follow the sentences and the words that appeal to them vary from voter to voter, so maybe it's a good strategy just to say lots of words.
    And of course he famously said he is very smart as he knows lots of words ;-)
  • ?

    I've said that I blame New Labour's immigration drive and going out on a limb among the major EU economies after the A8/10 accession in large part for the Brexit outcome.
    Fair enough. It's less clear whether you regret it or not.

    If you impose on people a policy they do not want, you can't be surprised if, in a democracy, it eventually blows up in your face.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,802

    Does the report say manufactured in Russia (which we all know) or launchers currently or very recently in the Russian Militarys custodianship?
    Missile fired from BUK launcher in rebel held territory that was imported from Russia and returned back there shortly after the incident.
  • SeanT said:

    Trump went on and on (and on and on) about blue collar US jobs being offshored. Which they are. He may not have the solutions, but if you are a working class American with "nothing to lose" then he's clearly the guy. Why not roll the dice.

    Same for crime, and foreign policy. It all depends how many American voters are in a Brexit state of mind.
    Oh he is definitely onto something with the outsourcing of jobs and the only thing Clinton had to really say was well if we go all eco we will need a load of solar panels manufacturing. It is also why Bernie would have trashed Trump, despite both having stupid ideas about how to address these issues.
  • SeanT said:

    Trump went on and on (and on and on) about blue collar US jobs being offshored. Which they are. He may not have the solutions, but if you are a working class American with "nothing to lose" then he's clearly the guy. Why not roll the dice.

    Same for crime, and foreign policy. It all depends how many American voters are in a Brexit state of mind.
    My view is that Brexit may turn out to be a pretty unique event to the UK.

    It won here due to an alliance between sovereignists, democratic idealists, globalists, anti-globalists and populists.

    Leave winning 35-40% of the vote on anti-free movement/globalisation alone wouldn't have led to it crossing the line. It was the unique overbearing nature of EU federalism and its continued march, combined with our own democratic tradition of self-governance, that led to another 15-20% voting Leave from the well-off/middle classes.

    I think Trump has the former, but the latter does not apply in his case.
  • Bye bye crackberry...

    BlackBerry stops designing its own phones

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-37493566
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    Indigo said:

    Now there you are wrong. You guys don't know you are born in the time wasting department ;)

    When we started developing our first batch of properties and needed to get a water supply installed so we could mix concrete, I was slightly surprised to discover that we had to attend a three hour seminar with our local water company which when it came down to it was all about how to fill in your application form for the water supply, a document which contained about six fields one of which was the certificate number from the certificate of having attended the said seminar.

    We rewired our house - in the early 00s. A man from SSE came round and approved us to reconnect to the grid. This isn't possible now. What a load of regulatory crap.

    It's red tape with knobs on. Why can't I bury a dead horse in my field? Or thousands of other things that are now nitpicked over by clipboard warriors?

    Just eff off.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,077
    Alan Curbishley in the next England manager betting at 100-1 xD

  • On topic, Milne to return to The Guardian next month, according to Sophie Ridge. If true, that will leave Corbyn a good deal more exposed than he has been of late. Milne has acted as his praetorian.

    Why The Guardian would want him back is another matter, as is why he'd want to go, given how much effort he's put into keeping Corbyn in place. Perhaps he thinks that battle's won now (and for now, it is - but give it three months it'll be a different story).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited September 2016
    "Earlier, he told Sky Sports he had only attended the meeting with the undercover reporters as a favour to friend and agent Scott McGarvey, who he says was hoping to land a job out of it."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37493794

    The Telegraph have said they met with him on two separate occasions....So far, we have only seen the video from one of them.
  • Mr. Royale, "...pretty unique...".

    Cooler. Six weeks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited September 2016

    On topic, Milne to return to The Guardian next month, according to Sophie Ridge. If true, that will leave Corbyn a good deal more exposed than he has been of late. Milne has acted as his praetorian.

    Why The Guardian would want him back is another matter, as is why he'd want to go, given how much effort he's put into keeping Corbyn in place. Perhaps he thinks that battle's won now (and for now, it is - but give it three months it'll be a different story).

    The Guardian staffers don't, but he is very very friendly with the editor. Please make his replacement Paul Mason, we want the laughs to continue.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited September 2016
    Muckguire comfirms Seamus is a goner, Runners and riders....

    http://order-order.com/2016/09/28/labour-director-of-communications-runners-and-riders/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    PlatoSaid said:

    We rewired our house - in the early 00s. A man from SSE came round and approved us to reconnect to the grid. This isn't possible now. What a load of regulatory crap.

    It's red tape with knobs on. Why can't I bury a dead horse in my field? Or thousands of other things that are now nitpicked over by clipboard warriors?

    Just eff off.

    A friend of mine is building a house.

    The electricity board delivered a 3 phase feed to the site, and man came to install a meter on one of the phases. Having done so he carefully sealed the incomer so nobody can tamper with the meter and get free electricity...

    ...except he only sealed the single phase he connected. There are 2 other completely unmetered supplies...

    The same guy is also putting in a septic tank. When he grew up the accepted method for ensuring your septic tank never ran out of bacteria was to put a dead sheep in it during construction.

    Now he's not allowed, and not very happy about it.
  • SeanT said:

    That's a pity for the Tories. Milne was reliably crap. They might actually get someone competent, who will be able to sell Corbyn to the...

    Nah. Hahahaha
    As they say, you can't polish a turd.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    The Guardian staffers don't, but he is very very friendly with the editor. Please make his replacement Paul Mason, we want the laughs to continue.
    He thinks he's still a journalist, only now he can tell the TRUTH, man. It's sweet, in a way. He's the type of blinkered partisan of the type we see all over, who may well be right on occasion, but it would only ever be in the stopped clock sense as there's no thought involved.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,900
    edited September 2016
    Corbyn in his speech today at 2.30 is going to say that he will resolve immigration by harmonising wages across the EU. Roumania pays £1 per hour and we are at £7.20. So he is going to increase Roumania to £7.20 per hour then. The man is just on a different planet.

    I believe the moderate labour MPs have to get rid of him by no later than 2018 or face extinction at the 2020 GE. They cannot go into that election with him
  • SeanT said:

    That's a pity for the Tories. Milne was reliably crap. They might actually get someone competent, who will be able to sell Corbyn to the...

    Nah. Hahahaha
    You can't polish a turd.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited September 2016
    A new GUESSING GAME for all PBers:
    https://twitter.com/julierobins/status/780791702122590208

    I personally think she's growing scales.
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276

    The Guardian staffers don't, but he is very very friendly with the editor. Please make his replacement Paul Mason, we want the laughs to continue.
    If the Guardian has more layoffs to come then it'll be interesting to see if the pro or anti Corbyn wings take the greatest losses.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    SeanT said:

    That's a pity for the Tories. Milne was reliably crap. They might actually get someone competent, who will be able to sell Corbyn to the...

    Nah. Hahahaha
    Paul Mason is the front runner. He's almost worse than Milne, but doesn't have the same ruthless Stalinist efficiency.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278
    MikeK said:
    Pretty sure I remember similar photos from several different presidential candidates in the past, it seems to be an old standard in the elections game over there.
  • Rubbing the right's face in diversity was fun. Sinking into oblivion is less so.
    One begat the other.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,278

    Corbyn in his speech today at 2.30 is going to say that he will resolve immigration by harmonising wages across the EU. Roumania pays £1 per hour and we are at £7.20. So he is going to increase Roumania to £7.20 per hour then. The man is just on a different planet.

    I believe the moderate labour MPs ave to get rid of him by no later than 2018 o face extiction at the 2020 GE. They cannot go into that election with him

    Well unless we have an early election or some truly unforeseeable event changes things somehow, they don't have a choice - they've proven twice now they cannot beat him, and there are no election results that will matter between now and 2020 that will be so bad as to change the membership's mind I suspect.
  • SeanT said:

    Trump definitely had the best lines about insecurity, jobs, foreign policy, he just fluffed them badly then started banging on about his amazing non-racist nightclub in Long Beach with its sexy Muslim bargirls.

    If you were minded to ignore the gibberish, it was possible to see that he might be the better president - certainly for the average Yank who hasn't seen median income improve in two decades or so.

    Hillary was just boilerplate. I can't recall a single thing she said. I was simply wondering at what point she would cough (she didn't).


    Hillary's best bet is to keep the focus on Trump. Given her ratings, keeping things anodyne is sensible, unless she can deliver a zinging one-liner at some point.
  • Corbyn in his speech today at 2.30 is going to say that he will resolve immigration by harmonising wages across the EU. Roumania pays £1 per hour and we are at £7.20. So he is going to increase Roumania to £7.20 per hour then. The man is just on a different planet.

    I believe the moderate labour MPs have to get rid of him by no later than 2018 or face extinction at the 2020 GE. They cannot go into that election with him

    Perhaps he should run to be premier of Romania then.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Perhaps he should run to be premier of Romania then.

    I suspect the PLP would have a whip round for his air fare...
  • Trump is by no means the most right wing candidate. Cruz is far more right wing.

    Trump is just the rudest. Compared with Hillary and Hattie he is obviously very right wing but that is really a product of how Labour Libdems, Wet Tories and in the US the Democrats, had until the middle of this year appeared to have shifted the centre ground a long way to the left.

    None of us (I hope) want to go back to the days of No Blacks or Irish signs outside cafes.

    Where we principally disagree is that the left think this sort of thing should be prevented by authoritarian laws that abolish the right of freedom of association; wheras the right trust the people and think that other than by educating the people and setting a good example the state should butt out.

    Technology favours the right. No business that did that would last very long in the twitter age whether legal or not.
    You would repeal the Equality Act, for example?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    A fare-dodging barrister who commuted by train for two years without paying has been struck off https://t.co/txRps4R2IB https://t.co/uZ7daCoNYe
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    ?

    I've said that I blame New Labour's immigration drive and going out on a limb among the major EU economies after the A8/10 accession in large part for the Brexit outcome.
    Absolutely. There's always been a low level resentment to the EU, but the free movement and labour around the EU was always seen as a good thing. I never really sensed any resentment from migration from france, italy, germany etc. We were just not prepared for the scale of people who came over following enlargement, and the wage differentials meaning that people were coming over and working for what seemed a kings ransom, sleeping five to a room and then going home with it, all the time competing with unskilled and low skilled labour.
  • Scott_P said:

    I suspect the PLP would have a whip round for his air fare...
    one way
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    Post Brexit London Apocalypse Continued, Part 837

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/revealed-apple-to-create-stunning-new-hq-at-battersea-power-station-a3356201.html


    "Apple is leasing 500,000 sq ft in total, making it one of the biggest single office deals signed in London outside the City and Docklands in the past 20 years."

    Caw!
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited September 2016

    Perhaps he should run to be premier of Romania then.
    I remember Ceaucescu on his balcony trying to buy off the baying mob by promising them all a wage rise and then fleeing by helicopter out of the back door. The look on his face when he realised it all wasn't quite going to plan was immortal.

  • This is a very good article by Lord Mandelson on possible compromises in EU-UK negotiations:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3c86306-840e-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5.html?siteedition=uk#axzz4LXCTfu4b

    (If you don't have FT access, you can sometimes get to FT articles via Google. The title is 'A hard Brexit is far from inevitable'.)
  • Corbyn in his speech today at 2.30 is going to say that he will resolve immigration by harmonising wages across the EU. Roumania pays £1 per hour and we are at £7.20. So he is going to increase Roumania to £7.20 per hour then. The man is just on a different planet.

    I believe the moderate labour MPs have to get rid of him by no later than 2018 or face extinction at the 2020 GE. They cannot go into that election with him

    Is that before or after he has solved the Syrian Civil War with his idea to have a sit down with AQ and Al-Nursa (just not ISIS)?
  • Jonathan said:

    Mexico, China, China, Mexico, China, China, China, Mexico, Mexico.
    Is that meant to be sung to the tune of Lilliburlero?
  • SeanT said:

    Post Brexit London Apocalypse Continued, Part 837

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/revealed-apple-to-create-stunning-new-hq-at-battersea-power-station-a3356201.html


    "Apple is leasing 500,000 sq ft in total, making it one of the biggest single office deals signed in London outside the City and Docklands in the past 20 years."

    For the second time today I wonder if this new is related to the EU deciding to fine Apple.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    We rewired our house - in the early 00s. A man from SSE came round and approved us to reconnect to the grid. This isn't possible now. What a load of regulatory crap.

    It's red tape with knobs on. Why can't I bury a dead horse in my field? Or thousands of other things that are now nitpicked over by clipboard warriors?

    Just eff off.
    Because you might pollute the potable water being abstracted from a well nearby. One man's actions on his property are another man's injurious affection.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    SeanT said:

    Post Brexit London Apocalypse Continued, Part 837

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/revealed-apple-to-create-stunning-new-hq-at-battersea-power-station-a3356201.html


    "Apple is leasing 500,000 sq ft in total, making it one of the biggest single office deals signed in London outside the City and Docklands in the past 20 years."

    Apple's long term future may lie outside of the EU. 17% corporation tax and no political interference might look attractive to them in the long term, especially if the UK has a favourable free trade in goods and capital settlement with the EU.

    Brexit can give us the best of both world's, we must be strong enough to take the opportunity.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited September 2016

    For the second time today I wonder if this new is related to the EU deciding to fine Apple.
    Looks like they are just consolidating their existing 8 London offices into 1. Apple has money to burn that they don't want to pay tax on so spending it on vanity buildings makes sense.
  • MikeK said:

    A new GUESSING GAME for all PBers:
    https://twitter.com/julierobins/status/780791702122590208

    I personally think she's growing scales.

    It is the zip of the full skin outfit she puts on to hide the green lizard inside?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Because you might pollute the potable water being abstracted from a well nearby. One man's actions on his property are another man's injurious affection.
    And we did this for hundreds of years and no one noticed?

    Get a grip. Or shall I stop you from knocking on my front door in case you've a cold and I may catch it.

    An old dead horse - FFS - it doesn't have anthrax or ebola.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    538 discussing what the polls don't show. (through rose-tinted spectacles)
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited September 2016
    ''For the second time today I wonder if this new is related to the EU deciding to fine Apple. ''

    Hmmn. I don;t know about anyone else, but if I had large deposits in Eurozone banks, shipping them to London looks pretty attractive right now.

    There's a chance for me that ECB's policy has essentially made banking in the region an unprofitable enterprise.

    And I am even more worried that Carney is about to do this same in Britain. He has to be stopped.
  • SeanT said:

    I doubt it very much. Apple has been negotiating this for a year.

    What it does show is that it will take an AWFUL lot of negatives to dethrone London as Europe's de facto capital. There's so much talent, money and investment in London already, people don't want to move.

    And this is ignoring the possibility that the UK government will actually behave intelligently, and use Brexit as a means to attract MORE investment.

    All to play for.
    Surely this has little net effect? If I've read it correctly they're not talking about new jobs; they're consolidating several other sites onto one site? Which TBF makes sense from a business POV.

    Now, if they were moving European head office from Eire to London, that *would* be news.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    MaxPB said:

    Apple's long term future may lie outside of the EU. 17% corporation tax and no political interference might look attractive to them in the long term, especially if the UK has a favourable free trade in goods and capital settlement with the EU.

    Brexit can give us the best of both world's, we must be strong enough to take the opportunity.
    I would think the EU will be alive to the possibility of the UK becoming a low tax base for global companies selling into the EU and any trade deal will block that development. Anyway if we are outside the EU Custom Union then there would be no advantage to Apple basing themselves in the UK to sell to Europe.

    Where we would have an advantage is in R&D and other service activities that can attract the brightest from the rest of Europe and not be bogged down by EU bureaucracy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    This is a very good article by Lord Mandelson on possible compromises in EU-UK negotiations:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3c86306-840e-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5.html?siteedition=uk#axzz4LXCTfu4b

    (If you don't have FT access, you can sometimes get to FT articles via Google. The title is 'A hard Brexit is far from inevitable'.)

    His description of the customs union is very tricky. On the one hand he says we'd be free to agree trading deals outside of it, but in the very next sentence he says we'd have no control over our tariffs. He also lambasts the idea of being on the EEA as not having control over rulemaking and advocates staying in the customs union, which we'd have no control over either.

    All in all, it reads like a piece of well put together spin to keep us in the EU in all but name. Exactly what I expect from Mandy.
  • wasd said:

    If the Guardian has more layoffs to come then it'll be interesting to see if the pro or anti Corbyn wings take the greatest losses.
    If Milne resumes his role as head of the Guardian chapel, the layoffs will involve him....
  • SeanT said:

    I doubt it very much. Apple has been negotiating this for a year.

    What it does show is that it will take an AWFUL lot of negatives to dethrone London as Europe's de facto capital. There's so much talent, money and investment in London already, people don't want to move.

    And this is ignoring the possibility that the UK government will actually behave intelligently, and use Brexit as a means to attract MORE investment.

    All to play for.
    While the EU has been threatening Apple for years and even if we voted Remain as expected the UK is more than willing to stand up to the EU and be uncomfortable with the Commission whether in or out. It makes sense if the Commission is being awkward to hedge their bets with us and not just Eire.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited September 2016
    Post-debate poll: Hillary 4% up on before the debate (-1 to +3)
    https://morningconsult.com/2016/09/28/clinton-bests-trump-debate-half-likely-voters-say/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: Shami Chakrabarti as Shadow Home Secretary would put the cat among the pigeons. #lab2016
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    JonathanD said:

    I would think the EU will be alive to the possibility of the UK becoming a low tax base for global companies selling into the EU and any trade deal will block that development. Anyway if we are outside the EU Custom Union then there would be no advantage to Apple basing themselves in the UK to sell to Europe.

    Where we would have an advantage is in R&D and other service activities that can attract the brightest from the rest of Europe and not be bogged down by EU bureaucracy.
    I would he very surprised if we didn't get free goods trade. That is essentially the fallback position as Richard Nabavi has been saying all along. It benefits the EU more than us, but overall its not a terrible starting point.

    On being an offshore low tax zone, well look at Switzerland. It has the same role already and the CET applies to point of origin anyway. So even if we signed a free trade deal with China, Apple wouldn't be able to re-export devices into the EU tariff free from the UK, what they might do is export profits to the UK and take them out of EU jurisdiction altogether.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,970

    This is a very good article by Lord Mandelson on possible compromises in EU-UK negotiations:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3c86306-840e-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5.html?siteedition=uk#axzz4LXCTfu4b

    (If you don't have FT access, you can sometimes get to FT articles via Google. The title is 'A hard Brexit is far from inevitable'.)

    "the commission’s chief representative, Michel Barnier, is proposing to conduct negotiations in French".
    Brexit dur alors.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2016
    MaxPB said:

    His description of the customs union is very tricky. On the one hand he says we'd be free to agree trading deals outside of it, but in the very next sentence he says we'd have no control over our tariffs. He also lambasts the idea of being on the EEA as not having control over rulemaking and advocates staying in the customs union, which we'd have no control over either.

    All in all, it reads like a piece of well put together spin to keep us in the EU in all but name. Exactly what I expect from Mandy.

    No, I don't think that's right. He's actually teasing out different aspects of the possible deals.

    His Customs Union point is particularly interesting. What I think he is saying is that (like Turkey) we could be in the customs union, which involves some restrictions on what we could do, but not as much as the EEA. (An obvious difference being freedom of movement). His point on tariffs is that, yes, in a customs union we'd be bound by EU external tariffs, but only for those categories of goods covered by the customs union (manufactured goods). We could still enter into trade deals in respect of other sectors - notably, of course, services. That might be a trade-off worth exploring.

    I appreciate that Mandelson is the messenger most fit to be shot in the eyes of many, but if you ignore who wrote the article, and read it without preconceptions, it's an interesting and perceptive contribution.

    He also makes a very interesting point on the EU being dependent on the City:
  • Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Shami Chakrabarti as Shadow Home Secretary would put the cat among the pigeons. #lab2016

    Can you have a non-MP in that position?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794

    No, I don't think that's right. He's actually teasing out different aspects of the possible deals.

    His Customs Union point is particularly interesting. What I think he is saying is that (like Turkey) we could be in the customs union, which involves some restrictions on what we could do, but not as much as the EEA. (An obvious difference being freedom of movement). His point on tariffs is that, yes, in a customs union we'd be bound by EU external tariffs, but only for those categories of goods covered by the customs union (manufactured goods). We could still enter into trade deals in respect of other sectors - notably, of course, services. That might be a trade-off worth exploring.

    I appreciate that Mandelson is the messenger most fit to be shot in the eyes of many, but if you ignore who wrote the article, and read it without preconceptions, it's an interesting and perceptive contribution.

    He also makes a very interesting point on the EU being dependent on the City:
    I think a free goods trade deal and some accommodation on financial services is where we are heading. I don't see much mileage for staying in the customs union. The idea that countries would want to sign free services trade deals with the UK without being able to sell us, the UK consumer, their goods without tariffs is fanciful.

    On the City. A few of us have mentioned many times that London's capital markets are among the deepest in the world. EU companies and governments raise more money in London than they do in the rest of the EU combined at the last count. The combination of UK law, international investors and fairly relaxed rules on the kind of paper that can be sold is fairly unique. It is certainly not something that could be easily replicated on the continent, especially UK law for bonds.
  • MaxPB said:

    I think a free goods trade deal and some accommodation on financial services is where we are heading. I don't see much mileage for staying in the customs union. The idea that countries would want to sign free services trade deals with the UK without being able to sell us, the UK consumer, their goods without tariffs is fanciful.

    Except that in many cases they can sell into the EU without tariffs. Or, like the US, they might themselves be keen on selling us services.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003
    weejonnie said:

    538 discussing what the polls don't show. (through rose-tinted spectacles)
    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/

    Thanks for the links. That's a really interesting article. Hypothesis 4 is one I hadn't thought of.

    I think the known unknowns favour Hillary. The unknown unknowns favour Trump.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,802

    No, I don't think that's right. He's actually teasing out different aspects of the possible deals.

    His Customs Union point is particularly interesting. What I think he is saying is that (like Turkey) we could be in the customs union, which involves some restrictions on what we could do, but not as much as the EEA. (An obvious difference being freedom of movement). His point on tariffs is that, yes, in a customs union we'd be bound by EU external tariffs, but only for those categories of goods covered by the customs union (manufactured goods). We could still enter into trade deals in respect of other sectors - notably, of course, services. That might be a trade-off worth exploring.

    I appreciate that Mandelson is the messenger most fit to be shot in the eyes of many, but if you ignore who wrote the article, and read it without preconceptions, it's an interesting and perceptive contribution.

    He also makes a very interesting point on the EU being dependent on the City:
    If I understand his point on the Customs Union correctly, it would allow us to tap into existing EU agreements. If we are outside we would have to replicate every single one of them to get to the same point. Admittedly he doesn't make that point clearly. I think remaining in the Customs Union has a lot in its favour - it removes the third country content compliance burden for any business with supply chains. I think the benefits of negotiating FTAs independently is largely a PR claim. But the fact the government is so heavily invested in that claim may make remaining in the Customs Union a politically difficult option
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,077
    Barnesian said:

    Thanks for the links. That's a really interesting article. Hypothesis 4 is one I hadn't thought of.

    I think the known unknowns favour Hillary. The unknown unknowns favour Trump.
    Full Rumsfeld :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,077
    edited September 2016
    Does anyone remember when the president market was

    A ) Trimmed to two runners (Or 3 maybe (Johnson))
    B ) Fully settled

    last time round in 2012 ?
  • Can you have a non-MP in that position?
    He could use it as a symbolic precursor to proposing Westminster reforms to end the need to hand out peerages in order to appoint outsiders to ministerial posts. Oh....
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    ive heard about 5 porkies so far
  • Barnesian said:

    Thanks for the links. That's a really interesting article. Hypothesis 4 is one I hadn't thought of.

    I think the known unknowns favour Hillary. The unknown unknowns favour Trump.
    I think hypothesis 4 is wrong.

    Hillary's performance in the last debate was just about perfect from her standpoint. She needs to repeat that level twice and hope Trump doesn't up his game.

    We also know from Brexit that having the great and the good intervene on her side will not necessarily help.
  • No, I don't think that's right. He's actually teasing out different aspects of the possible deals.

    His Customs Union point is particularly interesting. What I think he is saying is that (like Turkey) we could be in the customs union, which involves some restrictions on what we could do, but not as much as the EEA.
    If I understand correctly, Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, but not the customs union. It's another concentric ring in a complex system.
  • Can you have a non-MP in that position?
    You can have a non mp as pm if you want theoretically.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    <...
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    <
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    FF43 said:

    Missile fired from BUK launcher in rebel held territory that was imported from Russia and returned back there shortly after the incident.
    The Anerucabs will have known in real time exactly where rhe missile was launched. And where the launcher went

    http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/sbirs.html
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784

    I think hypothesis 4 is wrong.

    Hillary's performance in the last debate was just about perfect from her standpoint. She needs to repeat that level twice and hope Trump doesn't up his game.

    We also know from Brexit that having the great and the good intervene on her side will not necessarily help.
    The Obama's and Sanders will definitely help her get young people out. And again, Brexit is different to a presidential election.
This discussion has been closed.