@rcs1000 - obviously I don't know the technical detail, but I had wondered if the US could end up waiving the fine simply because it wasn't in their interest to see Deutsche fail.
Milne has done a poor job - idd media relations for Jez is a tough gig due to the collosal amount of blairite/soft left journalists around who really do hate him, but nevertheless this is Milne's task.
I do wonder if Mrs Merkel is actually being cleverer than she appears. According to the BIS, Deutsche Bank is the most systematically important institution in the world. It has the most counterparties, and (probably) the greatest exposure to the swaps and other illiquid derivative markets.
If DB were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would clearly be a disaster in Germany. But at least there is a path to "supporting" depositors and the like. A new company "German Retail and Commercial Banking AG" could be created to take the healthy (non investment banking) parts of the business.
That would be a disaster for all DB's counterparties - particularly their US ones. What happens if you have an interest rate swap with an institution that simply doesn't exit? (Because European banks - outside CS, UBS and - to a lesser extent - SocGen aren't really in the investment banking business the effect would be relatively most here.) The US might be required to bail out their banking system a second time to deal with the insolvency of Deutsche Bank.
By threatening not to rescue DB, and refusing to intervene in the discussions re the potential fine, she is saying to the US government "sure, shoot DB, but it'll be you picking up the pieces".
Just a thought.
An interesting idea, but one fraught with danger. The US will have its pound of flesh from remaining EU businesses via fines and litigation and I'm not sure anyone will look to kindly at the idea of Germany not paying to clean up its own mess.
Also, unless DB ringfence the retail operation now, as in within the next few months, it would be very hard to justify ringfencing it once it goes under, not when there are hundreds of billions of deposits in the retail operation to use to plug any gaps in the balance sheet.
The latter is an idea the German government should be looking at actively, force Deutsche to ringfence their retail operation into a separate legal entity so that it cannot be raided for cash if the investment bank goes tits up. I know that the Vickers banking reforms will look to achieve something similar here.
Mr. Alistair, Merkel's generally solid but can make odd decisions (the knee-jerk reactions to end all nuclear power after the Japanese tsunami/earthquake and the migration lunacy being obvious examples).
I do wonder if Mrs Merkel is actually being cleverer than she appears. According to the BIS, Deutsche Bank is the most systematically important institution in the world. It has the most counterparties, and (probably) the greatest exposure to the swaps and other illiquid derivative markets.
If DB were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would clearly be a disaster in Germany. But at least there is a path to "supporting" depositors and the like. A new company "German Retail and Commercial Banking AG" could be created to take the healthy (non investment banking) parts of the business.
That would be a disaster for all DB's counterparties - particularly their US ones. What happens if you have an interest rate swap with an institution that simply doesn't exit? (Because European banks - outside CS, UBS and - to a lesser extent - SocGen aren't really in the investment banking business the effect would be relatively most here.) The US might be required to bail out their banking system a second time to deal with the insolvency of Deutsche Bank.
By threatening not to rescue DB, and refusing to intervene in the discussions re the potential fine, she is saying to the US government "sure, shoot DB, but it'll be you picking up the pieces".
Just a thought.
Would they be OK if it weren't for the fine, or are they still going down even if the US go easy on them?
The rumoured fine is in the $10-20bn range, so it could easily make the difference.
Has Deutsche bank actually wronged the US for that staggering amount of money, or is the amount of wronging say nearer $5 Bn, and the rest is punitive ?
I honestly am amazed that Corbynites and far too many in Labour mainland think that buying voters off will somehow fix the immigration issue.
You can't put a price on your culture, the feeling that you live in a foreign land, that you're now an outsider.
It's insane.
We don't think the numbers game is either appropriate or honest - every promise the Tories have made on this has been broken because they understandably shrink from the measures needed to make them actually deliverable. If you want them delivered anyway, vote UKIP. If you like being lied to, vote Tory. If you want realistic acceptance but money to address practical difficulties, vote Labour.
I don't think that you fully appreciate that no amount of money makes up for what some consider unwanted demographic and cultural change. Labour lost the election because of failing to fix the roof whilst the sun was shining. What has become apparent in the years since is that they also changed the password on the gate to 'password' AND told everyone in Europe that they were entitled to settle. Now Labour want to tell everyone the same?
UKIP are going to clean up the WWC voters who have traditionally voted labour. And rightly so, they've been utterly betrayed.
Absolutely. That Polish supermarket on the corner (and actually also the Polish restaurant on the parade) are scything down centuries of British culture. I think I also read that the BBC is going to play the pips in Polish on alternate Fridays.
Milne has done a poor job - idd media relations for Jez is a tough gig due to the collosal amount of blairite/soft left journalists around who really do hate him, but nevertheless this is Milne's task.
Well quite. - It’s Labour party conference time and the big story is – will he resign? has he been sacked and Corbyn advisors forced to deny rumours about him. – Seumas Milne once again the media main story, rather than the chap behind the curtain controlling it. He really is quite useless at this stuff.
Yes, it says someone is lying given the Trump venue fire safety certificate was for 7500.
Some of them look like they are standing outside (not that I care one way or the orget but to accuse someone of lying is pretty strong)
At the rally Trump claimed 25000, then the post rally campaign tweet said 15000 inside with 12000 outside, now it's down to 10000 despite the story Bill is tweeting saying it's 15000.
And venue was listened for 7500
LA Times latest poll shows no swing towards Clinton as yet - although only one day out of 7 is post debate.http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ (IMHO the key factor seems to be that more Republicans will hold their noses and vote Trump rather than Democrats hold their noses and vote Clinton)
Maybe, though this could be how most republicans feel
'The Arizona Republic has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, making her the first Democratic presidential candidate to earn the newspaper’s endorsement in its 126-year history.
“Since The Arizona Republic began publication in 1890, we have never endorsed a Democrat over a Republican for president. Never,” wrote the editorial board of Arizona’s most widely read daily newspaper. “This reflects a deep philosophical appreciation for conservative ideals and Republican principles. This year is different. The 2016 Republican candidate is not conservative and he is not qualified.”
The newspaper’s editorial board makes no bones about what it views as the temperamental deficiencies of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump: “Clinton has the temperament and experience to be president. Donald Trump does not.”
Calling Trump’s antics on and off the debate stage “beneath our national dignity,” the Arizona Republic’s editorial board dismissed Trump’s stance on immigration as inflammatory and ineffective - a potentially consequential assertion in the border state.
“Arizona went down the hardline immigration road Trump travels. It led our state to SB 1070, the 2010 ‘show me your papers’ law that earned Arizona international condemnation and did nothing to resolve real problems with undocumented immigration,” the editorial board writes. “Arizona understands that we don’t need a repeat of that divisive, unproductive fiasco on the national level.”
I do wonder if Mrs Merkel is actually being cleverer than she appears. According to the BIS, Deutsche Bank is the most systematically important institution in the world. It has the most counterparties, and (probably) the greatest exposure to the swaps and other illiquid derivative markets.
If DB were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would clearly be a disaster in Germany. But at least there is a path to "supporting" depositors and the like. A new company "German Retail and Commercial Banking AG" could be created to take the healthy (non investment banking) parts of the business.
That would be a disaster for all DB's counterparties - particularly their US ones. What happens if you have an interest rate swap with an institution that simply doesn't exit? (Because European banks - outside CS, UBS and - to a lesser extent - SocGen aren't really in the investment banking business the effect would be relatively most here.) The US might be required to bail out their banking system a second time to deal with the insolvency of Deutsche Bank.
By threatening not to rescue DB, and refusing to intervene in the discussions re the potential fine, she is saying to the US government "sure, shoot DB, but it'll be you picking up the pieces".
Just a thought.
That sounds remarkably shit or bust for a politician.
@edmundintokyo re Theresa May not triggering and coming back with a separate treaty. Frankly, TINA to A50. People may not know much about the nuances of what the EU does or doesn't do for us, but the man on the Clapham Omnibus sure as hell knows that triggering A50 means we're leaving and we voted to leave.
Yes, it says someone is lying given the Trump venue fire safety certificate was for 7500.
Some of them look like they are standing outside (not that I care one way or the orget but to accuse someone of lying is pretty strong)
At the rally Trump claimed 25000, then the post rally campaign tweet said 15000 inside with 12000 outside, now it's down to 10000 despite the story Bill is tweeting saying it's 15000.
And venue was listened for 7500
LA Times latest poll shows no swing towards Clinton as yet - although only one day out of 7 is post debate.http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ (IMHO the key factor seems to be that more Republicans will hold their noses and vote Trump rather than Democrats hold their noses and vote Clinton)
Maybe, though this could be how most republicans feel
'The Arizona Republic has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, making her the first Democratic presidential candidate to earn the newspaper’s endorsement in its 126-year history.
“Since The Arizona Republic began publication in 1890, we have never endorsed a Democrat over a Republican for president. Never,” wrote the editorial board of Arizona’s most widely read daily newspaper. “This reflects a deep philosophical appreciation for conservative ideals and Republican principles. This year is different. The 2016 Republican candidate is not conservative and he is not qualified.”
The newspaper’s editorial board makes no bones about what it views as the temperamental deficiencies of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump: “Clinton has the temperament and experience to be president. Donald Trump does not.”
Calling Trump’s antics on and off the debate stage “beneath our national dignity,” the Arizona Republic’s editorial board dismissed Trump’s stance on immigration as inflammatory and ineffective - a potentially consequential assertion in the border state.
“Arizona went down the hardline immigration road Trump travels. It led our state to SB 1070, the 2010 ‘show me your papers’ law that earned Arizona international condemnation and did nothing to resolve real problems with undocumented immigration,” the editorial board writes. “Arizona understands that we don’t need a repeat of that divisive, unproductive fiasco on the national level.”
Never endorsed a Democrat, just like Dallas Morning News.
I honestly am amazed that Corbynites and far too many in Labour mainland think that buying voters off will somehow fix the immigration issue.
You can't put a price on your culture, the feeling that you live in a foreign land, that you're now an outsider.
It's insane.
We don't think the numbers game is either appropriate or honest - every promise the Tories have made on this has been broken because they understandably shrink from the measures needed to make them actually deliverable. If you want them delivered anyway, vote UKIP. If you like being lied to, vote Tory. If you want realistic acceptance but money to address practical difficulties, vote Labour.
Milne has done a poor job - idd media relations for Jez is a tough gig due to the collosal amount of blairite/soft left journalists around who really do hate him, but nevertheless this is Milne's task.
Well quite. - It’s Labour party conference time and the big story is – will he resign? has he been sacked and Corbyn advisors forced to deny rumours about him. – Seumas Milne once again the media main story, rather than the chap behind the curtain controlling it. He really is quite useless at this stuff.
@edmundintokyo re Theresa May not triggering and coming back with a separate treaty. Frankly, TINA to A50. People may not know much about the nuances of what the EU does or doesn't do for us, but the man on the Clapham Omnibus sure as hell knows that triggering A50 means we're leaving and we voted to leave.
Might some of the US ire towards Deutsche bank be American revenge for the tax bill lumped on to Apple? You have a go at our champ and we hit yours etc.
Milne has done a poor job - idd media relations for Jez is a tough gig due to the collosal amount of blairite/soft left journalists around who really do hate him, but nevertheless this is Milne's task.
Well quite. - It’s Labour party conference time and the big story is – will he resign? has he been sacked and Corbyn advisors forced to deny rumours about him. – Seumas Milne once again the media main story, rather than the chap behind the curtain controlling it. He really is quite useless at this stuff.
I'd a very long and pointless conversation with @NickPalmer over identity several years ago.
To paraphrase my recollection of it [it started with how the SNP/PC/Anyone Else Party were legitimate - but an English version weren't]...
I'd the overwhelming impression that everyone else was allowed an identity except the English, we'd no culture or values or anything of cultural note - and when we did - it was horrible and should be rubbed out.
And lo, it's come to pass within Labour in spades. Unless you've commonsense like John Mann or Gisela or Hoey.
I forget which terrorist attack it was (it was during the flurry of maybe a dozen in a few weeks) but the BBC used the term 'Arabic phrase' rather than 'Allahu akbar' when reporting one, for which they claimed the motive was a mystery.
Declining trust in the media due to such things is completely understandable.
OK 'liable to be' then. I'd still rather wait for the facts.
Might some of the US ire towards Deutsche bank be American revenge for the tax bill lumped on to Apple? You have a go at our champ and we hit yours etc.
''If DB were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would clearly be a disaster in Germany. But at least there is a path to "supporting" depositors and the like. A new company "German Retail and Commercial Banking AG" could be created to take the healthy (non investment banking) parts of the business.''
And just who is going to deal with that august institution after having had the rug pulled out from under them by a bunch of cheating Germans. The financial credibility of Germany would be shot to pieces.
Furthermore, Does Deutsche even have any healthy parts to its business?? The more I read the more it seems banking in the Eurozone is an inherently unprofitable enterprise/ Point to a bank that's making money FFS.
Financial passport? who wants a financial passport to that?
meanwhile City AM reports Britain surging up the business competitiveness league.
Might some of the US ire towards Deutsche bank be American revenge for the tax bill lumped on to Apple? You have a go at our champ and we hit yours etc.
Is there a PB Brexitory line on Boris Johnson announcing support for Turkey becoming an EU member yet? Curious to see the mental gymnastics involved.
Consistency has never been a Boris strong suit.
My guess would be something along the lines of 'it's right for Turkey but the specific problems that Turkish membership would have brought Britain will be nullified by Brexit'.
Milne has done a poor job - idd media relations for Jez is a tough gig due to the collosal amount of blairite/soft left journalists around who really do hate him, but nevertheless this is Milne's task.
Well quite. - It’s Labour party conference time and the big story is – will he resign? has he been sacked and Corbyn advisors forced to deny rumours about him. – Seumas Milne once again the media main story, rather than the chap behind the curtain controlling it. He really is quite useless at this stuff.
"UPDATE: Corbyn’s office are insisting that Milne is not going anywhere. A Labour source tells Guido: “The story about Seumas leaving on Friday is untrue.”"
Is the $14bn fine for Deutsche Bank the Americans revenge for an almost identical fine on Apple by the EU?
There does seem to be a bit of tit for tat going on.
Welcome to the trade war!
Trump vs China next. Perhaps not the best environment for Brexit...
Brexit seems the best option if that is our environment. We can be Switzerland trading and taking wealth from everyone rather than at war with America like the EU.
The last 6 years suggest that Theresa May's false promises on immigration are vote winners. So far.
Quite so. Up to now you haven't had to do anything about it (maybe nothing coukd be done), but you did need to look like you were trying to do something about it.
It will be interesting to see if the Tories saying 'this time we will reduce it, we promise' or Labour's 'we don't want to reduce it at all, but we will mitigate it' will have an effect.
"UPDATE: Corbyn’s office are insisting that Milne is not going anywhere. A Labour source tells Guido: “The story about Seumas leaving on Friday is untrue.”"
Yes a bit like A50. Sounds great on paper but, like any battle plan, doesn't survive the first contact.
Tangentially, how would Brexit-minded people feel if May said she wasn't going to pull the Article 50 lever, but would instead get the EU to pass a custom treaty? They've been talking like Article 50 is anything from a brainfart to a plot to make leaving hard on purpose, so if she came home with an agreement to pass a treaty instead, could she spin that as a victory?
The practical advantage is that it could be done along with a comprehensive trade deal (which IIUC isn't covered by the Article 50 QMV vote?) and on a more flexible timetable. The practical impact would be that since treaties take a long, unpredictable amount of time, there would be no telling when the process would be done, if ever.
So I read that as a proposal to change the EU then ask the British to vote again, which I doubt would fly in either Britain or the rest of the EU. I think that's just for domestic consumption, as Sarkozy has the same problem that Cameron did ahead of 2015: He's angling for right-wing voters who are narked off with the EU over X, Y and Z, but he doesn't want to leave the EU, so he has to make it sound like he can change the EU so it no longer has X, Y and Z.
What I'm talking about would ostensibly just be a different way to Brexit, only with a full treaty of the EU and no 2-year time-bomb.
That is indeed Sarkozy's proposal, and naturally it's unlikely that the British will go anywhere near it. It's still interesting, (& again, assuming Sarkozy wins, which is nowhere near as improbable as it was even a few months ago) because the change from not giving Cameron a millimetre's ground to be prepared to ram through an entire new treaty on short order is significant, to say the least. If nothing else, it rather expands the room for negotiation - after all if the rump EU is going to circumscribe freedom of movement to appease their own electorates, the negotiation to satisfy out migration concerns will be that much easier.
Add in the awkward spot in which Merkel now finds herself, and the decision not immediately to invoke A50 seems very sensible.
Similarly the German refugee crisis is a direct result of Eight Million Germans being expelled from parts of Germany annexed by Russia, Poland and Czech after World War 2 and fleeing west as refugees. While that was within living memory Germany would never have stood aside as another refugee crisis unfolded in southern Europe.
Link? I read the German press regularly and watch German TV news coverage now and then, and I've never heard this referred to. The concern about expelled Germans was a big factor associated primarily with the fairly far right (CSU) in the 50s and it delayed recognition of the Oder-Neisse border with Poland, but because it tended to get mixed up with revanchism (give us back our lost lands) it never got broad acceptance, and when people had settled it evaporated as an issue - I've not heard it mentioned for years.
Rather, I think the Hitler background is a factor - having been the cause of mass forced migration followed by extermination, many Germans feel that they need to be especially careful not to shut an eye to refugee misery. It's a decent fundamental outlook though of course one can quarrel with practical consequences.
My understanding was it was a personal thing for Merkel - and related to the opening of the Austrian/Czech (?) border to East Germans immediately before the fall of the Berlin Wall. The concept of providing sanctury to those seeking a better life marked her deeply.
..and one of the reasons is that Sainsbury's penchant for rebranding foods from other companies under their own name. People don't like it when well remembered and loved brands are made invisible. True other major supermarkets do this too - Tesco is a prime example - but Sainsbury's leads the pack.
Used Argos for the first time in years a few weeks ago. Twice In One day and got same day delivery each time, very good.
In store is dreadful. You do all the work - ordering payingand still have to wait
I can't pretend to like Argos stores - but for the zip and out purchase, it's great. I can get a taxi to store find the item [usually a power lead for laptop cat chewed], order it and out within less than ten mins.
Online shopping has totally changed how I shop - I don't wander around looking at stuff - I know what I want, look for it online and buy it. Amazon recommendations occasionally gets me to add extras - but not often. I'm much more focussed.
May be it's my local but the "Fast Track" queue is longer than the normal one
If you haven't discovered Wilco yet you should check it out
I'd a very long and pointless conversation with @NickPalmer over identity several years ago.
To paraphrase my recollection of it [it started with how the SNP/PC/Anyone Else Party were legitimate - but an English version weren't]...
I'd the overwhelming impression that everyone else was allowed an identity except the English, we'd no culture or values or anything of cultural note - and when we did - it was horrible and should be rubbed out.
And lo, it's come to pass within Labour in spades. Unless you've commonsense like John Mann or Gisela or Hoey.
That's an odd recollection - I certainly don't think we don't have anything of cultural note - it's hard to think of a country with a stronger cultural tradition. I think I was arguing the other way round, that we have such a strong culture that we don't need special protection, like an English Parliament or rules requiring other people to behave like us. We should leave such things to Cornish nationalists worried about the dying language and autocratic states like Belorussia.
I honestly am amazed that Corbynites and far too many in Labour mainland think that buying voters off will somehow fix the immigration issue.
You can't put a price on your culture, the feeling that you live in a foreign land, that you're now an outsider.
It's insane.
We don't think the numbers game is either appropriate or honest - every promise the Tories have made on this has been broken because they understandably shrink from the measures needed to make them actually deliverable. If you want them delivered anyway, vote UKIP. If you like being lied to, vote Tory. If you want realistic acceptance but money to address practical difficulties, vote Labour.
Begs the question though. What is it exactly that Corbyn hates about the EU? He is clearly at least highly sceptical and unenthusiastic about it, if not a secret downright 'leaver'. It can't be free movement as he has just announced the same policy. It can't be the social chapter and all that.
Neo-liberal austerity policies as shown in its treatment of Greece. But he feels this can be tackled better from inside the EU than outside. This is based on my recollection of a speech by Corbyn during the referendum campaign.
I honestly am amazed that Corbynites and far too many in Labour mainland think that buying voters off will somehow fix the immigration issue.
You can't put a price on your culture, the feeling that you live in a foreign land, that you're now an outsider.
It's insane.
We don't think the numbers game is either appropriate or honest - every promise the Tories have made on this has been broken because they understandably shrink from the measures needed to make them actually deliverable. If you want them delivered anyway, vote UKIP. If you like being lied to, vote Tory. If you want realistic acceptance but money to address practical difficulties, vote Labour.
Begs the question though. What is it exactly that Corbyn hates about the EU? He is clearly at least highly sceptical and unenthusiastic about it, if not a secret downright 'leaver'. It can't be free movement as he has just announced the same policy. It can't be the social chapter and all that.
Neo-liberal austerity policies as shown in its treatment of Greece. But he feels this can be tackled better from inside the EU than outside. This is based on my recollection of a speech by Corbyn during the referendum campaign.
He hated it in 1975. That's basically all that matters.
Is the $14bn fine for Deutsche Bank the Americans revenge for an almost identical fine on Apple by the EU?
There does seem to be a bit of tit for tat going on.
Welcome to the trade war!
Trump vs China next. Perhaps not the best environment for Brexit...
Or an excellent opportunity to be a neutral haven for trade..
Getting hammered by both sides?
So are we going for a free trading Brexit, with no protective tartiffs? Or are we going to put up barriers to protect indigenous industries? Two rather incompatable visions of what A50 will do.
I am glad to not be in a business dependent on such things. Whether the economics rain or shine there will always be sick folk for me to treat.
Mr. Palmer, that's an odd thing to say. English culture being strong doesn't negate the need for an English Parliament given the substantial and increasing devolution of power to Holyrood. It's a matter of political equality.
Edited extra bit: F1: all the markets [except safety car...] seem to be up on Ladbrokes. I'll give them a perusal at some point in the next hour.
We don't think the numbers game is either appropriate or honest - every promise the Tories have made on this has been broken because they understandably shrink from the measures needed to make them actually deliverable. If you want them delivered anyway, vote UKIP. If you like being lied to, vote Tory. If you want realistic acceptance but money to address practical difficulties, vote Labour.
I like the strategy Nick. But isn't it true that immigration is least popular where it is lowest? So if you direct money to where immigration is high... then you're not really 'helping' the people who are upset about immigration?
True, but I don't think you target it quite that precisely - what you do is reinforce funding for whole regions where there is e.g. a problem with NHS waiting times so that people feel that their practical concerns are being addressed "in their area". Essentially we're trying to split off people who don't especially mind immigrants but are worried about practical impacts from people who simply hate seeing many foreigners, who I don't think we are going to be able to attract as voters under any conceivable leader.
I do wonder if Mrs Merkel is actually being cleverer than she appears. According to the BIS, Deutsche Bank is the most systematically important institution in the world. It has the most counterparties, and (probably) the greatest exposure to the swaps and other illiquid derivative markets.
If DB were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would clearly be a disaster in Germany. But at least there is a path to "supporting" depositors and the like. A new company "German Retail and Commercial Banking AG" could be created to take the healthy (non investment banking) parts of the business.
That would be a disaster for all DB's counterparties - particularly their US ones. What happens if you have an interest rate swap with an institution that simply doesn't exit? (Because European banks - outside CS, UBS and - to a lesser extent - SocGen aren't really in the investment banking business the effect would be relatively most here.) The US might be required to bail out their banking system a second time to deal with the insolvency of Deutsche Bank.
By threatening not to rescue DB, and refusing to intervene in the discussions re the potential fine, she is saying to the US government "sure, shoot DB, but it'll be you picking up the pieces".
Just a thought.
An interesting idea, but one fraught with danger. The US will have its pound of flesh from remaining EU businesses via fines and litigation and I'm not sure anyone will look to kindly at the idea of Germany not paying to clean up its own mess.
Also, unless DB ringfence the retail operation now, as in within the next few months, it would be very hard to justify ringfencing it once it goes under, not when there are hundreds of billions of deposits in the retail operation to use to plug any gaps in the balance sheet.
The latter is an idea the German government should be looking at actively, force Deutsche to ringfence their retail operation into a separate legal entity so that it cannot be raided for cash if the investment bank goes tits up. I know that the Vickers banking reforms will look to achieve something similar here.
Postbank is already separate but I don't know how much of the retail and corporate business that incorporates
I'd a very long and pointless conversation with @NickPalmer over identity several years ago.
To paraphrase my recollection of it [it started with how the SNP/PC/Anyone Else Party were legitimate - but an English version weren't]...
I'd the overwhelming impression that everyone else was allowed an identity except the English, we'd no culture or values or anything of cultural note - and when we did - it was horrible and should be rubbed out.
And lo, it's come to pass within Labour in spades. Unless you've commonsense like John Mann or Gisela or Hoey.
That's an odd recollection - I certainly don't think we don't have anything of cultural note - it's hard to think of a country with a stronger cultural tradition. I think I was arguing the other way round, that we have such a strong culture that we don't need special protection, like an English Parliament or rules requiring other people to behave like us. We should leave such things to Cornish nationalists worried about the dying language and autocratic states like Belorussia.
Neither am I sure that Gisela Stuart or Kate Hoey are the best guardians of English culture, North European culture possibly.
May has been in charge of immigration for six years and has failed to make a dent in either EU or Non EU migration in that time. I do not see why she should be the saviour now. Indeed Labour's policy is more realistic. Arbitrary caps on numbers are impossible to deliver, not least because we can only control immigration not emmigration, and there is a great deal of churn in both.
I do wonder if Mrs Merkel is actually being cleverer than she appears. According to the BIS, Deutsche Bank is the most systematically important institution in the world. It has the most counterparties, and (probably) the greatest exposure to the swaps and other illiquid derivative markets.
If DB were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would clearly be a disaster in Germany. But at least there is a path to "supporting" depositors and the like. A new company "German Retail and Commercial Banking AG" could be created to take the healthy (non investment banking) parts of the business.
That would be a disaster for all DB's counterparties - particularly their US ones. What happens if you have an interest rate swap with an institution that simply doesn't exit? (Because European banks - outside CS, UBS and - to a lesser extent - SocGen aren't really in the investment banking business the effect would be relatively most here.) The US might be required to bail out their banking system a second time to deal with the insolvency of Deutsche Bank.
By threatening not to rescue DB, and refusing to intervene in the discussions re the potential fine, she is saying to the US government "sure, shoot DB, but it'll be you picking up the pieces".
Just a thought.
Could be. There is a difference between not levying a fine, which is discretionary anyway, and picking up the pieces after everything has blown up.
Supposedly the Fed have some bad blood with Deutsche Bank ever since they bailed them out through the back door as part of the AIG business.
' And just who is going to deal with that august institution after having had the rug pulled out from under them by a bunch of cheating Germans. The financial credibility of Germany would be shot to pieces.
I don't think anyone has a legitimate expectation that national governments will spend taxpayers' money to bail out private businesses, especially since their express policy is that they won't. The credibility problem comes if they do the bailout.
I do wonder if Mrs Merkel is actually being cleverer than she appears. According to the BIS, Deutsche Bank is the most systematically important institution in the world. It has the most counterparties, and (probably) the greatest exposure to the swaps and other illiquid derivative markets.
If DB were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would clearly be a disaster in Germany. But at least there is a path to "supporting" depositors and the like. A new company "German Retail and Commercial Banking AG" could be created to take the healthy (non investment banking) parts of the business.
That would be a disaster for all DB's counterparties - particularly their US ones. What happens if you have an interest rate swap with an institution that simply doesn't exit? (Because European banks - outside CS, UBS and - to a lesser extent - SocGen aren't really in the investment banking business the effect would be relatively most here.) The US might be required to bail out their banking system a second time to deal with the insolvency of Deutsche Bank.
By threatening not to rescue DB, and refusing to intervene in the discussions re the potential fine, she is saying to the US government "sure, shoot DB, but it'll be you picking up the pieces".
Just a thought.
Could be. There is a difference between not levying a fine, which is discretionary anyway, and picking up the pieces after everything has blown up.
Supposedly the Fed have some bad blood with Deutsche Bank ever since they bailed them out through the back door as part of the AIG business.
Naa - the US just LOVE to rake in the $$$$ from any non US company that it thinks has done something wrong - as BP will testify. Remember the USA is skint. (I would say bankrupt* but technically it can't go bankrupt as it could debase the dollar by turning on the printers and dropping dollar bills from helicopters)
bankrupt = banca rotta - literally broken bench, from the time when such deals were actually done from them. (A money dealer's table)
Ah, Shimon Peres, who was so much a "man of peace" that he won a Nobel Peace Prize. Actually he shared it. I wonder what proportion of people who read today's media could name who he shared it with.
The Oslo accords were a complete failure - except for one side. They were based on having a casino in Jericho and an internment camp in Gaza and calling them autonomous.
I'd a very long and pointless conversation with @NickPalmer over identity several years ago.
To paraphrase my recollection of it [it started with how the SNP/PC/Anyone Else Party were legitimate - but an English version weren't]...
I'd the overwhelming impression that everyone else was allowed an identity except the English, we'd no culture or values or anything of cultural note - and when we did - it was horrible and should be rubbed out.
And lo, it's come to pass within Labour in spades. Unless you've commonsense like John Mann or Gisela or Hoey.
That's an odd recollection - I certainly don't think we don't have anything of cultural note - it's hard to think of a country with a stronger cultural tradition. I think I was arguing the other way round, that we have such a strong culture that we don't need special protection, like an English Parliament or rules requiring other people to behave like us. We should leave such things to Cornish nationalists worried about the dying language and autocratic states like Belorussia.
I well recall the discussion because you denied ilk like me of having any cultural value beyond roast beef.
It stuck in my mind precisely because you denigrated my entire cultural identity and labelled anyone who was English as a racist, bigot, blah blah blah - and sought to smother nicer people from anywhere else.
I changed my entire opinion of your views during that conversation. You just didn't like us - like Emily Thornberry.
Remember the USA is skint. (I would say bankrupt but technically it can't go bankrupt as it could debase the dollar by turning on the printers and dropping dollar bills from helicopters)
By threatening not to rescue DB, and refusing to intervene in the discussions re the potential fine, she is saying to the US government "sure, shoot DB, but it'll be you picking up the pieces".
Just a thought.
A very good call, I think.
More generally, if the world wants to avoid banking crises, governments have got to give up their addiction to imposing ever more ludicrous fines on banks.
There is a wonderful documentary available on iPlayer (but only until the end of today I think) called "All Aboard! The Country Bus" and it is a journey in real time of the Yorkshire Dalesman as it travels west from Richmond. No documentary just occasional panels with information about the names of the villages the bus passes through or the flowers in the meadows or the history of lead mining. The only sounds are the sounds of the birds and the animals and you simply watch the countryside pass by as if you were on the bus yourself.
Simply glorious and calming to watch as you sit (or as I do) in my overcrowded tube train on my way into work.
Not to be missed.
The countryside is quite marvelous. I can see why some call Yorkshire "God's Own County".
Mind you, Cumbria and the Amalfi coast are even better.
I do wonder if Mrs Merkel is actually being cleverer than she appears. According to the BIS, Deutsche Bank is the most systematically important institution in the world. It has the most counterparties, and (probably) the greatest exposure to the swaps and other illiquid derivative markets.
If DB were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would clearly be a disaster in Germany. But at least there is a path to "supporting" depositors and the like. A new company "German Retail and Commercial Banking AG" could be created to take the healthy (non investment banking) parts of the business.
That would be a disaster for all DB's counterparties - particularly their US ones. What happens if you have an interest rate swap with an institution that simply doesn't exit? (Because European banks - outside CS, UBS and - to a lesser extent - SocGen aren't really in the investment banking business the effect would be relatively most here.) The US might be required to bail out their banking system a second time to deal with the insolvency of Deutsche Bank.
By threatening not to rescue DB, and refusing to intervene in the discussions re the potential fine, she is saying to the US government "sure, shoot DB, but it'll be you picking up the pieces".
Just a thought.
Could be. There is a difference between not levying a fine, which is discretionary anyway, and picking up the pieces after everything has blown up.
Supposedly the Fed have some bad blood with Deutsche Bank ever since they bailed them out through the back door as part of the AIG business.
The fine itself, though, is not the event that drives Deutsche insolvent. It would (at $15bn ish) force a recap to restore Tier 1 capital to required regulatory levels, rather than driving the bank into immediate insolvency (the tangible net assets of the bank, as most recently stated, are much higher than the current market capitalisation. That is a really poor position to be in).
But as people have noted, any recap then runs into the two elephants in the room: the $600bn derivatives on the balance sheet, and the question mark over whether Deutsche can ever turn a profit again (or at least in the current interest rate environment). Somewhere along the line, there's going to have to be a significant write-down before the vulture funds get interested; who bears the cost?
More than half of people who voted for Labour in 2015 and subsequently voted Leave at the EU referendum now say that they will vote for another party or don’t know who they will vote.
..and one of the reasons is that Sainsbury's penchant for rebranding foods from other companies under their own name. People don't like it when well remembered and loved brands are made invisible. True other major supermarkets do this too - Tesco is a prime example - but Sainsbury's leads the pack.
Used Argos for the first time in years a few weeks ago. Twice In One day and got same day delivery each time, very good.
Argos has amazing logistics. If it was some silicon valley funded start up people would be going gaga over their stock control and delivery network but because it is boring old Argos it is unfashionable to like them. Their website ordering and reservation system was ground breaking a decade ago.
Someone did go gaga over it. Sainsbury's. They bought it out and are now absorbing it into the main company. I gather within the hour food deliveries have started in some London postcodes. By bicycle.
That idea is the perfect mix of deliveroo and Argos. There are enough people out there who don't mind paying for convenience. A few quid for 20 items to be delivered within an hour, people will pay for it in London. Even if the local Sainsbury's is in walking distance.
I pay Tesco £3pcm to deliver shopping over £40 for free on T/W/Th. And I pay a couple of quid outside those days if I accept a 4hr window. And they text me hours in advance to tell me what hour they'll turn up.
It's incredible value - no dragging bags up the drive, no queuing, no cocking about at the checkout - all delivered with a chat/smile in about 2mins. About 50 calories of effort from me.
Why anyone goes trolley shopping is beyond me unless they enjoy wandering the aisles as recreation. I used to - like garden centres on a Sunday....
I had tesco and sainsbury deliver every week for years until I realised I could improve the quality and near halve the bill by driving to Aldi and getting a trolley. In terms of cost saving per hour of effort an unassailable business case.
Remember the USA is skint. (I would say bankrupt but technically it can't go bankrupt as it could debase the dollar by turning on the printers and dropping dollar bills from helicopters)
Also it has a lot of assets it could sell.
Mostly it has been China buying US government bonds. If they were to reverse that flow, say as part of Trumps trade war, it could get really interesting.
Isn't that what happened in the Republican primary, the great and good would call it for not-Trump and then Trump would surge in the polls.
I think we need to bear in mind that that is a possibility. We don't have much solid data, but I was struck by a couple of articles suggesting that maybe ordinary Americans weren't terribly impressed by Hillary's 'win' in the debate:
OK, they are anecdotal, but they ring true to me. As a result, I'm topping up a bit on Trump at current odds. The market seems to have priced in a shift towards Clinton which (for the moment at least) is speculative.
@rcs1000 - obviously I don't know the technical detail, but I had wondered if the US could end up waiving the fine simply because it wasn't in their interest to see Deutsche fail.
I guess that might depend if the ECJ waives the £12 billion fine on whichever US company it was whose Irish tax dealings fell foul of them.
Similarly the German refugee crisis is a direct result of Eight Million Germans being expelled from parts of Germany annexed by Russia, Poland and Czech after World War 2 and fleeing west as refugees. While that was within living memory Germany would never have stood aside as another refugee crisis unfolded in southern Europe.
Link? I read the German press regularly and watch German TV news coverage now and then, and I've never heard this referred to. The concern about expelled Germans was a big factor associated primarily with the fairly far right (CSU) in the 50s and it delayed recognition of the Oder-Neisse border with Poland, but because it tended to get mixed up with revanchism (give us back our lost lands) it never got broad acceptance, and when people had settled it evaporated as an issue - I've not heard it mentioned for years.
Rather, I think the Hitler background is a factor - having been the cause of mass forced migration followed by extermination, many Germans feel that they need to be especially careful not to shut an eye to refugee misery. It's a decent fundamental outlook though of course one can quarrel with practical consequences.
You're right that it is a fundamentally decent outlook. But what has always puzzled me about it is why this decency was not directed at its near neighbours, Poland especially, who - far far more than the Middle East - suffered as a result of German actions. Why did Germany impose controls on migration from Poland and other accession states from Eastern Europe? Of all the countries and peoples who deserved generosity from Germany, Poland was surely at or near the top of the list?
If it was caused - in part - by war guilt it seems to have been misplaced, not least because by letting in so many from the Middle East Germany has risked importing, in part, some of the attitudes and perspectives which so disfigured Germany in the past and led to the mass forced migration and extermination you mention.
There is a wonderful documentary available on iPlayer (but only until the end of today I think) called "All Aboard! The Country Bus" and it is a journey in real time of the Yorkshire Dalesman as it travels west from Richmond. No documentary just occasional panels with information about the names of the villages the bus passes through or the flowers in the meadows or the history of lead mining. The only sounds are the sounds of the birds and the animals and you simply watch the countryside pass by as if you were on the bus yourself.
Simply glorious and calming to watch as you sit (or as I do) in my overcrowded tube train on my way into work.
Not to be missed.
The countryside is quite marvelous. I can see why some call Yorkshire "God's Own County".
Mind you, Cumbria and the Amalfi coast are even better.
*runs and hides*
IIRC, Norwegian TV did something similar with a ferry journey that took something like 24 hours to make its way along the coast.
..and one of the reasons is that Sainsbury's penchant for rebranding foods from other companies under their own name. People don't like it when well remembered and loved brands are made invisible. True other major supermarkets do this too - Tesco is a prime example - but Sainsbury's leads the pack.
Used Argos for the first time in years a few weeks ago. Twice In One day and got same day delivery each time, very good.
Argos has amazing logistics. If it was some silicon valley funded start up people would be going gaga over their stock control and delivery network but because it is boring old Argos it is unfashionable to like them. Their website ordering and reservation system was ground breaking a decade ago.
Someone did go gaga over it. Sainsbury's. They bought it out and are now absorbing it into the main company. I gather within the hour food deliveries have started in some London postcodes. By bicycle.
That idea is the perfect mix of deliveroo and Argos. There are enough people out there who don't mind paying for convenience. A few quid for 20 items to be delivered within an hour, people will pay for it in London. Even if the local Sainsbury's is in walking distance.
I pay Tesco £3pcm to deliver shopping over £40 for free on T/W/Th. And I pay a couple of quid outside those days if I accept a 4hr window. And they text me hours in advance to tell me what hour they'll turn up.
It's incredible value - no dragging bags up the drive, no queuing, no cocking about at the checkout - all delivered with a chat/smile in about 2mins. About 50 calories of effort from me.
Why anyone goes trolley shopping is beyond me unless they enjoy wandering the aisles as recreation. I used to - like garden centres on a Sunday....
I had tesco and sainsbury deliver every week for years until I realised I could improve the quality and near halve the bill by driving to Aldi and getting a trolley. In terms of cost saving per hour of effort an unassailable business case.
As a PBer who doesn't own a car, doesn't have a World Traveller Air Bragging Elite card, or own a wine collection full of Chateux FeuxOeuf - I find £3pcm very cheap.
Remember the USA is skint. (I would say bankrupt but technically it can't go bankrupt as it could debase the dollar by turning on the printers and dropping dollar bills from helicopters)
Also it has a lot of assets it could sell.
Mostly it has been China buying US government bonds. If they were to reverse that flow, say as part of Trumps trade war, it could get really interesting.
Can Trump put the USA into chapter 11?
Neither a borrower nor a lender be, said someone, somewhere.
..and one of the reasons is that Sainsbury's penchant for rebranding foods from other companies under their own name. People don't like it when well remembered and loved brands are made invisible. True other major supermarkets do this too - Tesco is a prime example - but Sainsbury's leads the pack.
Used Argos for the first time in years a few weeks ago. Twice In One day and got same day delivery each time, very good.
Argos has amazing logistics. If it was some silicon valley funded start up people would be going gaga over their stock control and delivery network but because it is boring old Argos it is unfashionable to like them. Their website ordering and reservation system was ground breaking a decade ago.
Someone did go gaga over it. Sainsbury's. They bought it out and are now absorbing it into the main company. I gather within the hour food deliveries have started in some London postcodes. By bicycle.
That idea is the perfect mix of deliveroo and Argos. There are enough people out there who don't mind paying for convenience. A few quid for 20 items to be delivered within an hour, people will pay for it in London. Even if the local Sainsbury's is in walking distance.
I pay Tesco £3pcm to deliver shopping over £40 for free on T/W/Th. And I pay a couple of quid outside those days if I accept a 4hr window. And they text me hours in advance to tell me what hour they'll turn up.
It's incredible value - no dragging bags up the drive, no queuing, no cocking about at the checkout - all delivered with a chat/smile in about 2mins. About 50 calories of effort from me.
Why anyone goes trolley shopping is beyond me unless they enjoy wandering the aisles as recreation. I used to - like garden centres on a Sunday....
I had tesco and sainsbury deliver every week for years until I realised I could improve the quality and near halve the bill by driving to Aldi and getting a trolley. In terms of cost saving per hour of effort an unassailable business case.
As a PBer who doesn't own a car, doesn't have a World Traveller Air Travel Bragging Elite card, or own a wine collection full of Chateux FeuxOeuf - I find £3pcm very cheap.
Its the cost of the goods that makes the difference not the delivery charge.
I would get Aldi to deliver but they have decided not to stiff all their customers to subsidise loss making home deliveries!
There is a wonderful documentary available on iPlayer (but only until the end of today I think) called "All Aboard! The Country Bus" and it is a journey in real time of the Yorkshire Dalesman as it travels west from Richmond. No documentary just occasional panels with information about the names of the villages the bus passes through or the flowers in the meadows or the history of lead mining. The only sounds are the sounds of the birds and the animals and you simply watch the countryside pass by as if you were on the bus yourself.
Simply glorious and calming to watch as you sit (or as I do) in my overcrowded tube train on my way into work.
Not to be missed.
The countryside is quite marvelous. I can see why some call Yorkshire "God's Own County".
Mind you, Cumbria and the Amalfi coast are even better.
*runs and hides*
Great stuff - I'll download it. I love the Yorkshire Dales. But they call Yorkshire "God's Own Country"
We don't think the numbers game is either appropriate or honest - every promise the Tories have made on this has been broken because they understandably shrink from the measures needed to make them actually deliverable. If you want them delivered anyway, vote UKIP. If you like being lied to, vote Tory. If you want realistic acceptance but money to address practical difficulties, vote Labour.
I like the strategy Nick. But isn't it true that immigration is least popular where it is lowest? So if you direct money to where immigration is high... then you're not really 'helping' the people who are upset about immigration?
True, but I don't think you target it quite that precisely - what you do is reinforce funding for whole regions where there is e.g. a problem with NHS waiting times so that people feel that their practical concerns are being addressed "in their area". Essentially we're trying to split off people who don't especially mind immigrants but are worried about practical impacts from people who simply hate seeing many foreigners, who I don't think we are going to be able to attract as voters under any conceivable leader.
I absolutely agree with the purpose of the strategy. It's much better than pretending to out-kip UKIP, or just lying to people like the Tories.
Instead it is internal migration which indicates pressure on NHS waiting times. This makes sense for the health sector since immigrants are more likely to be younger, healthier etc.
So for at least some of this migrant impact fund- it may need to be spent where there aren't many immigrants at all. I hope the policy is flexible enough to allow for that.
Isn't that what happened in the Republican primary, the great and good would call it for not-Trump and then Trump would surge in the polls.
I think we need to bear in mind that that is a possibility. We don't have much solid data, but I was struck by a couple of articles suggesting that maybe ordinary Americans weren't terribly impressed by Hillary's 'win' in the debate:
OK, they are anecdotal, but they ring true to me. As a result, I'm topping up a bit on Trump at current odds. The market seems to have priced in a shift towards Clinton which (for the moment at least) is speculative.
It's too small a sample group. And none of them went for Trump over Clinton in the first one.
The Second one had a headline saying one thing, and then an interview with 3 people. Hardly conclusive.
Trump is still the value bet at the moment though. He will get a few good polls at some point before the election again,
There is a wonderful documentary available on iPlayer (but only until the end of today I think) called "All Aboard! The Country Bus" and it is a journey in real time of the Yorkshire Dalesman as it travels west from Richmond. No documentary just occasional panels with information about the names of the villages the bus passes through or the flowers in the meadows or the history of lead mining. The only sounds are the sounds of the birds and the animals and you simply watch the countryside pass by as if you were on the bus yourself.
Simply glorious and calming to watch as you sit (or as I do) in my overcrowded tube train on my way into work.
Not to be missed.
The countryside is quite marvelous. I can see why some call Yorkshire "God's Own County".
Mind you, Cumbria and the Amalfi coast are even better.
*runs and hides*
Slow TV is great, mesmerising. BBC4 showed "All Aboard! The Sleigh Ride" in Norway on Xmas eve last year. The first I am aware of is the Midsummer train from Helsinki to Rovaniemi in Lapland shown on Finnish TV (YLE) in 2012.
There is a wonderful documentary available on iPlayer (but only until the end of today I think) called "All Aboard! The Country Bus" and it is a journey in real time of the Yorkshire Dalesman as it travels west from Richmond. No documentary just occasional panels with information about the names of the villages the bus passes through or the flowers in the meadows or the history of lead mining. The only sounds are the sounds of the birds and the animals and you simply watch the countryside pass by as if you were on the bus yourself.
Simply glorious and calming to watch as you sit (or as I do) in my overcrowded tube train on my way into work.
Not to be missed.
The countryside is quite marvelous. I can see why some call Yorkshire "God's Own County".
Mind you, Cumbria and the Amalfi coast are even better.
*runs and hides*
IIRC, Norwegian TV did something similar with a ferry journey that took something like 24 hours to make its way along the coast.
Similarly the German refugee crisis is a direct result of Eight Million Germans being expelled from parts of Germany annexed by Russia, Poland and Czech after World War 2 and fleeing west as refugees. While that was within living memory Germany would never have stood aside as another refugee crisis unfolded in southern Europe.
Link? I read the German press regularly and watch German TV news coverage now and then, and I've never heard this referred to. The concern about expelled Germans was a big factor associated primarily with the fairly far right (CSU) in the 50s and it delayed recognition of the Oder-Neisse border with Poland, but because it tended to get mixed up with revanchism (give us back our lost lands) it never got broad acceptance, and when people had settled it evaporated as an issue - I've not heard it mentioned for years.
Rather, I think the Hitler background is a factor - having been the cause of mass forced migration followed by extermination, many Germans feel that they need to be especially careful not to shut an eye to refugee misery. It's a decent fundamental outlook though of course one can quarrel with practical consequences.
I think Paul does have a point here. I have elderly German relatives who fled as children from East Pomerania (now part of Poland) during WWII and later from the DDR to the West in the 1960s. They have many stories of friends and relatives who were also expelled or fled from what are now parts of Russia, Poland and the Czech Republic. I'm sure that their personal experience as refugees does indeed colour their attitude towards the current Syrian refugee crisis in ways that may be hard for us to understand.
I agree and have seen this commented on before - many Germans' parents were refugees, which will have influenced opinion in a way that we can't really appreciate. Indeed making a wider point, the fact that the UK has enjoyed a relatively calm history (war et al notwithstanding) never having had the experience of occupation/collaboration/resistance nor of dictatorship does give us a mental block when it comes to understanding the politics of our friends on the continent.
True. But the reverse is also the case. It gives them a mental block about understanding why the British might think nation states a good thing and want to hold onto theirs.
..and one of the reasons is that Sainsbury's penchant for rebranding foods from other companies under their own name. People don't like it when well remembered and loved brands are made invisible. True other major supermarkets do this too - Tesco is a prime example - but Sainsbury's leads the pack.
Used Argos for the first time in years a few weeks ago. Twice In One day and got same day delivery each time, very good.
Argos has amazing logistics. If it was some silicon valley funded start up people would be going gaga over their stock control and delivery network but because it is boring old Argos it is unfashionable to like them. Their website ordering and reservation system was ground breaking a decade ago.
Someone did go gaga over it. Sainsbury's. They bought it out and are now absorbing it into the main company. I gather within the hour food deliveries have started in some London postcodes. By bicycle.
That idea is the perfect mix of deliveroo and Argos. There are enough people out there who don't mind paying for convenience. A few quid for 20 items to be delivered within an hour, people will pay for it in London. Even if the local Sainsbury's is in walking distance.
I pay Tesco £3pcm to deliver shopping over £40 for free on T/W/Th. And I pay a couple of quid outside those days if I accept a 4hr window. And they text me hours in advance to tell me what hour they'll turn up.
It's incredible value - no dragging bags up the drive, no queuing, no cocking about at the checkout - all delivered with a chat/smile in about 2mins. About 50 calories of effort from me.
Why anyone goes trolley shopping is beyond me unless they enjoy wandering the aisles as recreation. I used to - like garden centres on a Sunday....
Not just recreation, things are so quiet down here in Devon that when Morrisons move the confectionery to the aisle where cereals used to be, we talk about it for months. Online shopping rules you out of huge amounts of conversation material.
..and one of the reasons is that Sainsbury's penchant for rebranding foods from other companies under their own name. People don't like it when well remembered and loved brands are made invisible. True other major supermarkets do this too - Tesco is a prime example - but Sainsbury's leads the pack.
Used Argos for the first time in years a few weeks ago. Twice In One day and got same day delivery each time, very good.
Argos has amazing logistics. If it was some silicon valley funded start up people would be going gaga over their stock control and delivery network but because it is boring old Argos it is unfashionable to like them. Their website ordering and reservation system was ground breaking a decade ago.
Someone did go gaga over it. Sainsbury's. They bought it out and are now absorbing it into the main company. I gather within the hour food deliveries have started in some London postcodes. By bicycle.
That idea is the perfect mix of deliveroo and Argos. There are enough people out there who don't mind paying for convenience. A few quid for 20 items to be delivered within an hour, people will pay for it in London. Even if the local Sainsbury's is in walking distance.
I pay Tesco £3pcm to deliver shopping over £40 for free on T/W/Th. And I pay a couple of quid outside those days if I accept a 4hr window. And they text me hours in advance to tell me what hour they'll turn up.
It's incredible value - no dragging bags up the drive, no queuing, no cocking about at the checkout - all delivered with a chat/smile in about 2mins. About 50 calories of effort from me.
Why anyone goes trolley shopping is beyond me unless they enjoy wandering the aisles as recreation. I used to - like garden centres on a Sunday....
Not just recreation, things are so quiet down here in Devon that when Morrisons move the confectionery to the aisle where cereals used to be, we talk about it for months. Online shopping rules you out of huge amounts of conversation material.
Bickering in the meat aisle really is a miss for me these days.
Similarly the German refugee crisis is a direct result of Eight Million Germans being expelled from parts of Germany annexed by Russia, Poland and Czech after World War 2 and fleeing west as refugees. While that was within living memory Germany would never have stood aside as another refugee crisis unfolded in southern Europe.
Link? I read the German press regularly and watch German TV news coverage now and then, and I've never heard this referred to. The concern about expelled Germans was a big factor associated primarily with the fairly far right (CSU) in the 50s and it delayed recognition of the Oder-Neisse border with Poland, but because it tended to get mixed up with revanchism (give us back our lost lands) it never got broad acceptance, and when people had settled it evaporated as an issue - I've not heard it mentioned for years.
Rather, I think the Hitler background is a factor - having been the cause of mass forced migration followed by extermination, many Germans feel that they need to be especially careful not to shut an eye to refugee misery. It's a decent fundamental outlook though of course one can quarrel with practical consequences.
You're right that it is a fundamentally decent outlook. But what has always puzzled me about it is why this decency was not directed at its near neighbours, Poland especially, who - far far more than the Middle East - suffered as a result of German actions. Why did Germany impose controls on migration from Poland and other accession states from Eastern Europe? Of all the countries and peoples who deserved generosity from Germany, Poland was surely at or near the top of the list?
If it was caused - in part - by war guilt it seems to have been misplaced, not least because by letting in so many from the Middle East Germany has risked importing, in part, some of the attitudes and perspectives which so disfigured Germany in the past and led to the mass forced migration and extermination you mention.
If you have been to Germany you'll know that many of them have a certain view of the Poles, with some (loose) parallels between Britain and the Irish. When I first travelled to Poland I went via Berlin and almost whenever I mentioned my destination was given a variety of warnings about the crime and other unpleasantness I would surely encounter there. The german who ran the hotel even handed me a note when I was checking out with a word on it in Polish, which I had to go look up to find that it meant "beware". When I eventually got to Poland the locals (who were more friendly, decent and unthreatening than pretty much anywhere else I have been) made the same kind of comments about the Ukranians.
Remember the USA is skint. (I would say bankrupt but technically it can't go bankrupt as it could debase the dollar by turning on the printers and dropping dollar bills from helicopters)
Also it has a lot of assets it could sell.
Mostly it has been China buying US government bonds. If they were to reverse that flow, say as part of Trumps trade war, it could get really interesting.
Can Trump put the USA into chapter 11?
Off topic: I hate off-topic online portfolio talk, but there is no way the markets are going to have a huge, hopefully temporary, wobble at some stage between now and 9/11/16 (English style). The value bet is to free up a bit of cash now and await some bargains.
..and one of the reasons is that Sainsbury's penchant for rebranding foods from other companies under their own name. People don't like it when well remembered and loved brands are made invisible. True other major supermarkets do this too - Tesco is a prime example - but Sainsbury's leads the pack.
Used Argos for the first time in years a few weeks ago. Twice In One day and got same day delivery each time, very good.
Argos has amazing logistics. If it was some silicon valley funded start up people would be going gaga over their stock control and delivery network but because it is boring old Argos it is unfashionable to like them. Their website ordering and reservation system was ground breaking a decade ago.
Someone did go gaga over it. Sainsbury's. They bought it out and are now absorbing it into the main company. I gather within the hour food deliveries have started in some London postcodes. By bicycle.
That idea is the perfect mix of deliveroo and Argos. There are enough people out there who don't mind paying for convenience. A few quid for 20 items to be delivered within an hour, people will pay for it in London. Even if the local Sainsbury's is in walking distance.
I pay Tesco £3pcm to deliver shopping over £40 for free on T/W/Th. And I pay a couple of quid outside those days if I accept a 4hr window. And they text me hours in advance to tell me what hour they'll turn up.
It's incredible value - no dragging bags up the drive, no queuing, no cocking about at the checkout - all delivered with a chat/smile in about 2mins. About 50 calories of effort from me.
Why anyone goes trolley shopping is beyond me unless they enjoy wandering the aisles as recreation. I used to - like garden centres on a Sunday....
Not just recreation, things are so quiet down here in Devon that when Morrisons move the confectionery to the aisle where cereals used to be, we talk about it for months. Online shopping rules you out of huge amounts of conversation material.
Bickering in the meat aisle really is a miss for me these days.
..and one of the reasons is that Sainsbury's penchant for rebranding foods from other companies under their own name. People don't like it when well remembered and loved brands are made invisible. True other major supermarkets do this too - Tesco is a prime example - but Sainsbury's leads the pack.
Used Argos for the first time in years a few weeks ago. Twice In One day and got same day delivery each time, very good.
Argos has amazing logistics. If it was some silicon valley funded start up people would be going gaga over their stock control and delivery network but because it is boring old Argos it is unfashionable to like them. Their website ordering and reservation system was ground breaking a decade ago.
Someone did go gaga over it. Sainsbury's. They bought it out and are now absorbing it into the main company. I gather within the hour food deliveries have started in some London postcodes. By bicycle.
That idea is the perfect mix of deliveroo and Argos. There are enough people out there who don't mind paying for convenience. A few quid for 20 items to be delivered within an hour, people will pay for it in London. Even if the local Sainsbury's is in walking distance.
I pay Tesco £3pcm to deliver shopping over £40 for free on T/W/Th. And I pay a couple of quid outside those days if I accept a 4hr window. And they text me hours in advance to tell me what hour they'll turn up.
It's incredible value - no dragging bags up the drive, no queuing, no cocking about at the checkout - all delivered with a chat/smile in about 2mins. About 50 calories of effort from me.
Why anyone goes trolley shopping is beyond me unless they enjoy wandering the aisles as recreation. I used to - like garden centres on a Sunday....
Not just recreation, things are so quiet down here in Devon that when Morrisons move the confectionery to the aisle where cereals used to be, we talk about it for months. Online shopping rules you out of huge amounts of conversation material.
Bickering in the meat aisle really is a miss for me these days.
The downside at Aldi is that, much to @malcolmg 's amusement you end up spending the difference on electronic neo-cuckoo clocks which have albino starlings with red beaks cuckooing at you all day.
As a PBer who doesn't own a car, doesn't have a World Traveller Air Bragging Elite card, or own a wine collection full of Chateux FeuxOeuf - I find £3pcm very cheap.
I do own a car but as a parent of both a toddler and a baby I find <£1 per week to avoid pushing a pram and dragging a toddler around a supermarket to be well worth it. Once per week I answer the door and my groceries arrive, I have better things to do than go to the supermarket.
On my time off I'd rather take my toddler to the park and push her on a swing than take her to the supermarket and push a trolley.
Comments
Also, unless DB ringfence the retail operation now, as in within the next few months, it would be very hard to justify ringfencing it once it goes under, not when there are hundreds of billions of deposits in the retail operation to use to plug any gaps in the balance sheet.
The latter is an idea the German government should be looking at actively, force Deutsche to ringfence their retail operation into a separate legal entity so that it cannot be raided for cash if the investment bank goes tits up. I know that the Vickers banking reforms will look to achieve something similar here.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/16/deutsche-bank-must-pay-14bn-fine-to-settle-us-mortgage-case
'The Arizona Republic has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, making her the first Democratic presidential candidate to earn the newspaper’s endorsement in its 126-year history.
“Since The Arizona Republic began publication in 1890, we have never endorsed a Democrat over a Republican for president. Never,” wrote the editorial board of Arizona’s most widely read daily newspaper. “This reflects a deep philosophical appreciation for conservative ideals and Republican principles. This year is different. The 2016 Republican candidate is not conservative and he is not qualified.”
The newspaper’s editorial board makes no bones about what it views as the temperamental deficiencies of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump: “Clinton has the temperament and experience to be president. Donald Trump does not.”
Calling Trump’s antics on and off the debate stage “beneath our national dignity,” the Arizona Republic’s editorial board dismissed Trump’s stance on immigration as inflammatory and ineffective - a potentially consequential assertion in the border state.
“Arizona went down the hardline immigration road Trump travels. It led our state to SB 1070, the 2010 ‘show me your papers’ law that earned Arizona international condemnation and did nothing to resolve real problems with undocumented immigration,” the editorial board writes. “Arizona understands that we don’t need a repeat of that divisive, unproductive fiasco on the national level.”
To paraphrase my recollection of it [it started with how the SNP/PC/Anyone Else Party were legitimate - but an English version weren't]...
I'd the overwhelming impression that everyone else was allowed an identity except the English, we'd no culture or values or anything of cultural note - and when we did - it was horrible and should be rubbed out.
And lo, it's come to pass within Labour in spades. Unless you've commonsense like John Mann or Gisela or Hoey.
I'd still rather wait for the facts.
There does seem to be a bit of tit for tat going on.
And just who is going to deal with that august institution after having had the rug pulled out from under them by a bunch of cheating Germans. The financial credibility of Germany would be shot to pieces.
Furthermore, Does Deutsche even have any healthy parts to its business?? The more I read the more it seems banking in the Eurozone is an inherently unprofitable enterprise/ Point to a bank that's making money FFS.
Financial passport? who wants a financial passport to that?
meanwhile City AM reports Britain surging up the business competitiveness league.
What a lovely, lovely morning to be a Brexiteer.
My guess would be something along the lines of 'it's right for Turkey but the specific problems that Turkish membership would have brought Britain will be nullified by Brexit'.
Trump vs China next. Perhaps not the best environment for Brexit...
"UPDATE: Corbyn’s office are insisting that Milne is not going anywhere. A Labour source tells Guido: “The story about Seumas leaving on Friday is untrue.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/10/uk-trade-deficit-hits-new-record-of-24bn-pounds-eu-referendum-brexit
It will be interesting to see if the Tories saying 'this time we will reduce it, we promise' or Labour's 'we don't want to reduce it at all, but we will mitigate it' will have an effect.
It's still interesting, (& again, assuming Sarkozy wins, which is nowhere near as improbable as it was even a few months ago) because the change from not giving Cameron a millimetre's ground to be prepared to ram through an entire new treaty on short order is significant, to say the least.
If nothing else, it rather expands the room for negotiation - after all if the rump EU is going to circumscribe freedom of movement to appease their own electorates, the negotiation to satisfy out migration concerns will be that much easier.
Add in the awkward spot in which Merkel now finds herself, and the decision not immediately to invoke A50 seems very sensible.
If you haven't discovered Wilco yet you should check it out
http://www.scotsman.com/news/eu-student-numbers-at-scotland-s-universities-double-1-4241930
So are we going for a free trading Brexit, with no protective tartiffs? Or are we going to put up barriers to protect indigenous industries? Two rather incompatable visions of what A50 will do.
I am glad to not be in a business dependent on such things. Whether the economics rain or shine there will always be sick folk for me to treat.
Edited extra bit: F1: all the markets [except safety car...] seem to be up on Ladbrokes. I'll give them a perusal at some point in the next hour.
http://tinyurl.com/hm8w32n
Sky Data
Who'd you prefer to be in charge of:
Economy
CON 48%
LAB 31%
Defence
CON 53%
LAB 27%
Immigration
CON 46%
LAB 30%
https://t.co/AgKCANyzY3
Andrew Neil
UK overtakes Japan, HK and Finland to take 7th place in World Economic Forum competitiveness table of 138 countries. Highest ranking ever
May has been in charge of immigration for six years and has failed to make a dent in either EU or Non EU migration in that time. I do not see why she should be the saviour now. Indeed Labour's policy is more realistic. Arbitrary caps on numbers are impossible to deliver, not least because we can only control immigration not emmigration, and there is a great deal of churn in both.
Supposedly the Fed have some bad blood with Deutsche Bank ever since they bailed them out through the back door as part of the AIG business.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/780957955986292736
bankrupt = banca rotta - literally broken bench, from the time when such deals were actually done from them. (A money dealer's table)
The Oslo accords were a complete failure - except for one side. They were based on having a casino in Jericho and an internment camp in Gaza and calling them autonomous.
It stuck in my mind precisely because you denigrated my entire cultural identity and labelled anyone who was English as a racist, bigot, blah blah blah - and sought to smother nicer people from anywhere else.
I changed my entire opinion of your views during that conversation. You just didn't like us - like Emily Thornberry.
More generally, if the world wants to avoid banking crises, governments have got to give up their addiction to imposing ever more ludicrous fines on banks.
There is a wonderful documentary available on iPlayer (but only until the end of today I think) called "All Aboard! The Country Bus" and it is a journey in real time of the Yorkshire Dalesman as it travels west from Richmond. No documentary just occasional panels with information about the names of the villages the bus passes through or the flowers in the meadows or the history of lead mining. The only sounds are the sounds of the birds and the animals and you simply watch the countryside pass by as if you were on the bus yourself.
Simply glorious and calming to watch as you sit (or as I do) in my overcrowded tube train on my way into work.
Not to be missed.
The countryside is quite marvelous. I can see why some call Yorkshire "God's Own County".
Mind you, Cumbria and the Amalfi coast are even better.
*runs and hides*
But as people have noted, any recap then runs into the two elephants in the room: the $600bn derivatives on the balance sheet, and the question mark over whether Deutsche can ever turn a profit again (or at least in the current interest rate environment). Somewhere along the line, there's going to have to be a significant write-down before the vulture funds get interested; who bears the cost?
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/23/labours-losing-leave-voters/
More than half of people who voted for Labour in 2015 and subsequently voted Leave at the EU referendum now say that they will vote for another party or don’t know who they will vote.
Or have we Brexited recently? We haven't even had the guts to activate A50 yet, just do some willy waving.
Can Trump put the USA into chapter 11?
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article104382951.html
http://nypost.com/2016/09/26/the-best-debate-takes-come-from-inside-the-bar/
OK, they are anecdotal, but they ring true to me. As a result, I'm topping up a bit on Trump at current odds. The market seems to have priced in a shift towards Clinton which (for the moment at least) is speculative.
If it was caused - in part - by war guilt it seems to have been misplaced, not least because by letting in so many from the Middle East Germany has risked importing, in part, some of the attitudes and perspectives which so disfigured Germany in the past and led to the mass forced migration and extermination you mention.
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/09/27/12/45/vic-crime-figure-shoots-himself-in-groin
Seems 100% of the world ignores that advice mind.
I would get Aldi to deliver but they have decided not to stiff all their customers to subsidise loss making home deliveries!
All the immediate bad news in two days post vote were blamed on our voting to Leave. Now good news is being attributed to our membership.
Mmm, convincing.
It's much better than pretending to out-kip UKIP, or just lying to people like the Tories.
This interesting study suggests that an increase in external immigration is associated with a reduction in NHS waiting times. http://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/working-paper-series/working-paper-005
Instead it is internal migration which indicates pressure on NHS waiting times. This makes sense for the health sector since immigrants are more likely to be younger, healthier etc.
So for at least some of this migrant impact fund- it may need to be spent where there aren't many immigrants at all. I hope the policy is flexible enough to allow for that.
The Second one had a headline saying one thing, and then an interview with 3 people. Hardly conclusive.
Trump is still the value bet at the moment though. He will get a few good polls at some point before the election again,
BBC4 showed "All Aboard! The Sleigh Ride" in Norway on Xmas eve last year.
The first I am aware of is the Midsummer train from Helsinki to Rovaniemi in Lapland shown on Finnish TV (YLE) in 2012.
'Unluckiest man in Australia' bitten on the penis by a spider for the second time
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/28/unluckiest-man-in-australia-bitten-on-the-penis-by-a-spider-for/
I think we may have a new metaphor for Corbyn's re-election as Labour leader....
I think that means he's really, really thick. Anything more pronounced would surely be termed a "mental disability".
He was 3.5% ahead yesterday & he's 4.0% ahead today.
I make that a 3.5% gain total from the debates (0.5% x 7).
This is quite close to the Gravis Flash poll, which found him gaining 2% from the Debates.
Time to stock up on popcorn & watch the Liberal media meltdown.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
On my time off I'd rather take my toddler to the park and push her on a swing than take her to the supermarket and push a trolley.