politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remem

I am sure Dickin' Bill is more interested in what bimbos are in the motorcade than what medical facilities are available.

rcs1000 said:

HurstLlama said:

Casino_Royale said:

HurstLlama said:

@Casino_Royale

"For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled)"

Sorry, Mr. Royale, could you please explain that one too us. What does discount mean in this context? How is the Border Force to know who is high skilled and who is low skilled unless there is some pre-arrival method of checking (aka visas or work permits).

As ever with these discussions the tricky bit is how does the UK quickly and efficiently remove from its shores those that are in breach of their terms of entry? Unless such people as are deemed undesirable can be thrown out then there is not much point in setting up systems to control who comes in. That would seem to me to require the UK to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the ECtHR.

It's not for me to justify HMG policy but the intent and direction of it is clear to me from Hammond's statement on free movement of financial workers from the EU a couple of weeks ago:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/european-bankers-will-be-exempt-from-migration-curbs-after-brexi/

I think there may be a salary test, or some form of income bond. Excluding, say, free movement from those on under £40k a year but allowing it for those above.

I certainly don't expect you or anyone on here to Justify HMG policy, i am just interested in exploring some ideas that people put forward.

If a person earning more than £x p.a. is to be given easier access to the UK then there has to be a mechanism for determining that the person has a solid job offer that includes a salary of £x+ befor he he is allowed in. That sounds a lot like a visa/work permit system to me and not a "discounted" system of free movement.

You can only get an NI number if in possession of a written job offer of more than £40k. At the one year mark, if you're still in possession of that job (or another paying £40k+), the NI number is extended for a further period. After five years, assuming you've had a £40k+ job for 85% of the time, it's made permanent.

Doesn't seem to be that complicated.

Furthermore it should not just apply to Europe but be a global standard. If an Australian or an American gets offered a £50,000 pa job why should they be leaping through hoops that a continental on minimum wage did not?

MTimT said:

Latest twitter storm on Hillary's health, re ambulance in her motorcade

If she were Trump she'd make a show of it and have an armed guard carry her around in a lectica.

Corbyn has declared himself “totally anti-sugar” in his answer to a question about his favourite biscuit

What does he make his jam with?

Paristonda said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Britannia waived, Theresa rules:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-royal-yacht-britannia-boris-johnson-brexit_uk_57dfc6dee4b0d584f7f1c7a9?31ebsl2g3cd8qto6r

She's doing an awful lot of overruling at present.

I get the feeling she's quite enjoying publicly shooting down her cabinet ministers. She's done it with several of them now. A power play to show who's boss. Same reason Osborne's sacking was so public.

She's certainly more of a CEO than Cameron, who was more like an Executive Chairman as PM. Will be interesting to see how that plays out over time, but she's clearly notbafraid to publicly criticise ministers.

We all would have told Osborne to leave by the back door, if we were in May's position that first evening.

TheScreamingEagles said:

See this is what happens when crappy android based phones try and outdo Apple's iPhone.

It never ends well because you can never outdo Apple's brilliance.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-18/samsung-crisis-began-in-rush-to-capitalize-on-uninspiring-iphone

Well not so much speed, but hubris. The Chinese Note 7 has used the Amperex battery mentioned in the article from the start because the Chinese regulator wouldn't approve the SDI batter for safe use. Instead of going back and sourcing their batteries from Panasonic, Amperex and Sony as they normally do, they ploughed ahead with the battery from their own division.

It's a classic case of chaebol culture, and it afflicts all of Korean industry.

PlatoSaid said:

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are effectively tied in Florida, according to a new poll released Monday.

Clinton has the support of 41 percent of likely voters in the New York Times Upshot/Siena College Research poll. Trump is backed by 40 percent.

Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has 9 percent support and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has 2 percent.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/in-florida-clinton-and-trump-are-running-neck-and-neck/article/2602164?custom_click=rss

Nate Silver has Trump winning Florida 51:49 and it's been like that for a while.

IanB2 said:

FF43 said:

Paristonda said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Britannia waived, Theresa rules:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-royal-yacht-britannia-boris-johnson-brexit_uk_57dfc6dee4b0d584f7f1c7a9?31ebsl2g3cd8qto6r

She's doing an awful lot of overruling at present.

I get the feeling she's quite enjoying publicly shooting down her cabinet ministers. She's done it with several of them now. A power play to show who's boss. Same reason Osborne's sacking was so public.

I think this is common sense. Brexit is not going to be a comfortable experience. The government will be very exposed when a company who has been doing business here for decades pulls out or when they have to make difficult spending choices on a reduced taxbase. A half built royal yacht on which to sign all the wonderful Brexit deals that aren't materialising would be hubris on a comic scale, when you are struggling for answers on the most basic questions.

This is basically Boris and the water cannons all over again - he is incapable of making decisions based on common sense and value for money, always being swayed by the symbolism of things. Hence why we have a cable car to nowhere swinging above East London and million pound buses on the streets with a rear platform that is never open, because employing conductors is unaffordable.

Boris isn't sticking to the script, which makes him interesting of course. His Foreign Minister job is supposed to be a sinecure. In exchange for which, he is due to lend his considerable PR skills to selling whatever transpires from Brexit as great government success. Instead he hatches unwelcome schemes to do with royal yachts and plots against his own government through the Change Britain organisation.

MTimT said:

Latest twitter storm on Hillary's health, re ambulance in her motorcade:

http://www.ksdk.com/news/politics/is-it-normal-for-clinton-to-have-an-ambulance/319630667

Apparently, it's standard procedure for those with a Secret Service detail, but not for those without, which is why Trump has no ambulance in his motorcade.

Be interesting to see if former Presidents, such as Bill, who do have Secret Service details, have ambulances in their motorcades.

If it were quite the standard, there would surely have been one with her the other week in New York - so why did her security bundle her into her own van, rather than the medically equipped one?

Sandpit said:

MTimT said:

Latest twitter storm on Hillary's health, re ambulance in her motorcade:

http://www.ksdk.com/news/politics/is-it-normal-for-clinton-to-have-an-ambulance/319630667

Apparently, it's standard procedure for those with a Secret Service detail, but not for those without, which is why Trump has no ambulance in his motorcade.

Be interesting to see if former Presidents, such as Bill, who do have Secret Service details, have ambulances in their motorcades.

If it were quite the standard, there would surely have been one with her the other week in New York - so why did her security bundle her into her own van, rather than the medically equipped one?

I believe there was also some issue about taking her to the ER or not. I am going to guess they thought the apartment was more secure option.

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See this is what happens when crappy android based phones try and outdo Apple's iPhone.

It never ends well because you can never outdo Apple's brilliance.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-18/samsung-crisis-began-in-rush-to-capitalize-on-uninspiring-iphone

Well not so much speed, but hubris. The Chinese Note 7 has used the Amperex battery mentioned in the article from the start because the Chinese regulator wouldn't approve the SDI batter for safe use. Instead of going back and sourcing their batteries from Panasonic, Amperex and Sony as they normally do, they ploughed ahead with the battery from their own division.

It's a classic case of chaebol culture, and it afflicts all of Korean industry.

Ah, so the faulty battery was Samsung's own new design, rather than from an established player?
Sounds awfully like the Boeing 787 and its own dodgy battery problems.

Yes, it was from their own Samsung SDI subsidiary, rather than from Panasonic or Sony who have around 50% market share between them for gadget batteries. SDI make good batteries as well, and as rhe article mentions, they make them for Apple, but Samsung used an untested type of battery for their own flagship unit because they'd kept the technology in reserve. The Chinese Note 7 has a lower battery rating for this reason, but it doesnt explode.

The damning part for me is that they went ahead with the SDI batter for the global version despite being told by the Chinese that it was not safe and that the only way to release it in China was to use a different supplier. The speculation at the time of the refusal was that the Chinese government wanted Samsung to use a Chinese brand of battery to boost their fledgling chemicals industry. Clearly that wasn't the case given they used a Japanese sourced one and it was a legitimate safety concern for rejecting the original Note 7.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

MTimT said:

Latest twitter storm on Hillary's health, re ambulance in her motorcade:

http://www.ksdk.com/news/politics/is-it-normal-for-clinton-to-have-an-ambulance/319630667

Apparently, it's standard procedure for those with a Secret Service detail, but not for those without, which is why Trump has no ambulance in his motorcade.

Be interesting to see if former Presidents, such as Bill, who do have Secret Service details, have ambulances in their motorcades.

If it were quite the standard, there would surely have been one with her the other week in New York - so why did her security bundle her into her own van, rather than the medically equipped one?

I believe there was also some issue about taking her to the ER or not. I am going to guess they thought the apartment was more secure option.

Secret Service protocol says head to the nearest ER - which they have already scoped out. Hillary over-ruled this because she didn't want to risk any medical information becoming public. Another example of her pathological urge for secrecy and lying hurting her, and feeding into the whole meme of her dishonesty and lack of trustworthiness.

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

2. Did Diane James really say that - alongside Churchill and Thatcher - Putin was one of her heroes?

* OK, maybe foolish, rather than a fool.

rcs1000 said:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*..

Like most smartphones, it's too big, if you want a phone that can go in your pocket rather than a pseudo-tablet.

rcs1000 said:

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

2. Did Diane James really say that - alongside Churchill and Thatcher - Putin was one of her heroes?

* OK, maybe foolish, rather than a fool.

What is so good about the OnePlus 3? I know little about it, other than they had some viral marketing campaign.

Ishmael_X said:

HYUFD said:

Ishmael_X said:

HYUFD said:

JonathanD said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.

Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.

What would stop them following suit?

Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.

For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.

Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.

Not for most Leavers, for them the most important thing was to cut immigration

Not true: the principle that decisions about the uk should be taken in the uk was the most often given reason for voting leave - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
Border control came second.

And anyway he said *economic success".

The two are interlinked and immigration remains the top political issue

Those questioned by Ashcroft were expressly offered immigration as a "main reason"; 33% chose it, against 49% who chose decision making. What do you mean "immigration remains the top political issue", and how do you know?

He doesn't but it's a great nasty tag and easily attached despite it being complete utter bollocks.

rcs1000 said:

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

2. Did Diane James really say that - alongside Churchill and Thatcher - Putin was one of her heroes?

* OK, maybe foolish, rather than a fool.

I've ordered the Xperia XZ. Not a huge fan of the 1+1 which I currently use. For £550 including sellable headphones it's a pretty good deal. Plus I've used it and it is pretty amazing. The fingerprint scanner in the standby button looks great and the camera should be very good once the better camera software is made compatible.

MaxPB said:

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

See this is what happens when crappy android based phones try and outdo Apple's iPhone.

It never ends well because you can never outdo Apple's brilliance.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-18/samsung-crisis-began-in-rush-to-capitalize-on-uninspiring-iphone

Well not so much speed, but hubris. The Chinese Note 7 has used the Amperex battery mentioned in the article from the start because the Chinese regulator wouldn't approve the SDI batter for safe use. Instead of going back and sourcing their batteries from Panasonic, Amperex and Sony as they normally do, they ploughed ahead with the battery from their own division.

It's a classic case of chaebol culture, and it afflicts all of Korean industry.

Ah, so the faulty battery was Samsung's own new design, rather than from an established player?
Sounds awfully like the Boeing 787 and its own dodgy battery problems.

Yes, it was from their own Samsung SDI subsidiary, rather than from Panasonic or Sony who have around 50% market share between them for gadget batteries. SDI make good batteries as well, and as rhe article mentions, they make them for Apple, but Samsung used an untested type of battery for their own flagship unit because they'd kept the technology in reserve. The Chinese Note 7 has a lower battery rating for this reason, but it doesnt explode.

The damning part for me is that they went ahead with the SDI batter for the global version despite being told by the Chinese that it was not safe and that the only way to release it in China was to use a different supplier. The speculation at the time of the refusal was that the Chinese government wanted Samsung to use a Chinese brand of battery to boost their fledgling chemicals industry. Clearly that wasn't the case given they used a Japanese sourced one and it was a legitimate safety concern for rejecting the original Note 7.

Good background which I hadn't understood. Thanks.

Weird - we have two National Polls on 538

Poll 1 : Trump +7 (LV)
Poll 2: Clinton +9 (AV)

Is this a record divergence?

(And a Pennsylvania - Trump +1)

rcs1000 said:

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

2. Did Diane James really say that - alongside Churchill and Thatcher - Putin was one of her heroes?

* OK, maybe foolish, rather than a fool.

Yes - she must be a Russian spy surely - isn't that the conclusion one leaps to about anyone who doesn't share the orthodox view of Uncle Vlad?

FF43 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Britannia waived, Theresa rules:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-royal-yacht-britannia-boris-johnson-brexit_uk_57dfc6dee4b0d584f7f1c7a9?31ebsl2g3cd8qto6r

She's doing an awful lot of overruling at present.

The Britannia required 250 crew to serve one or two Important People. That's enough to man two of the new frigates and those sailors are supposed to fight.

Nope

The Britannia was an important business venue that could move internationally with brilliant pageantry.

My ship was tied up on the same quay as her for over a week and we saw many business leaders and deals being done. All of these were Aided and abetted by the special circumstances and setting. She was far more than just "two people" trouble is lefties could never see that.....or didn't want to.

Sandpit said:

Tim_B said:

PlatoSaid said:

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are effectively tied in Florida, according to a new poll released Monday.

Clinton has the support of 41 percent of likely voters in the New York Times Upshot/Siena College Research poll. Trump is backed by 40 percent.

Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has 9 percent support and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has 2 percent.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/in-florida-clinton-and-trump-are-running-neck-and-neck/article/2602164?custom_click=rss

All will start to become clear a week today - the first debate.

At what time is the debate? I fear it will be an all nighter for those of us in a weird middle time zone.

Monday, September 26, 2016
First presidential debate
Moderator: Lester Holt, Anchor, NBC Nightly News
Location: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

The first debate will be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on major topics to be selected by the moderator and announced at least one week before the debate. The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. Candidates will then have an opportunity to respond to each other. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a deeper discussion of the topic.
Read more at http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-presidential-debate-schedule/#BKqxPDjmDQx0jV8f.99

Time is 9pm-10.30pm ET

rcs1000 said:

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

Not necessarily

https://www.silentcircle.com/products-and-solutions/devices/

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

2. Did Diane James really say that - alongside Churchill and Thatcher - Putin was one of her heroes?

* OK, maybe foolish, rather than a fool.

What is so good about the OnePlus 3? I know little about it, other than they had some viral marketing campaign.

1. Fabulous build quality. It really feels as good as an iPhone in terms of how it's made, really premium.

2. It's got a clean Android build, with no bloat. And it has 7mb of RAM, so it absolutely flies. It's the only Android phone I know that makes my iPhone feel slow.

3. It's £320. That's half the price of an iPhone or a Samsung or an HTC.

I've had a OnePlus 3 for a month and it is as sensational as people say. It is the only smartphone to have 6GB RAM which makes it amazingly fast. Everything just works instantly.

Its Dash charging system outperforms by a big margin other fast chargers..

Its lovely to hold and the screen is a gem. Fantastic.

Location of New York bomb exactly the same location as in plot for video game

http://imgur.com/a/AxOoG

Your job is to calculate the chance of this happening given the volume of tv, films, computer games and books that have bombs exploding in New York.

MTimT said:

Casino_Royale said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I notice Canada has become the new Sweden in some circles...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37406857

It's normally around this time in the US electoral cycle that lots of stories start to appear in the press about US citizens wanting to mass emigrate to Canada.

Only fair, given that every successful Canadian broadcaster and entertainer ends up in the US.

Canada's in NATO though and the bits worth living in would be in the way of the fall-out plumes from the prairie missile silo fields. We're planning to head to Ireland if Trump gets in as at least it's neutral, plus herself has an Irish passport and as a Brit I'd get CTA privs to live there (unless Brexit buggers that up too). Personally I'd prefer New Zealand for safety, but we haven't figured out if we could qualify for immigration there yet.

Alistair said:

Location of New York bomb exactly the same location as in plot for video game

http://imgur.com/a/AxOoG

Your job is to calculate the chance of this happening given the volume of tv, films, computer games and books that have bombs exploding in New York.

Even within The Division, doesn't s##t go down in every part of the map at some point or another?

Alistair said:

weejonnie said:

Weird - we have two National Polls on 538

Poll 1 : Trump +7 (LV)
Poll 2: Clinton +9 (AV)

Is this a record divergence?

(And a Pennsylvania - Trump +1)

I'm totally not seeing any of these polls on 538, could you link?

You have to refresh the 'updates page http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/ the top 3 are Monday 10.30 EDT (3.30pm)

MikeSmithson said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

2. Did Diane James really say that - alongside Churchill and Thatcher - Putin was one of her heroes?

* OK, maybe foolish, rather than a fool.

What is so good about the OnePlus 3? I know little about it, other than they had some viral marketing campaign.

1. Fabulous build quality. It really feels as good as an iPhone in terms of how it's made, really premium.

2. It's got a clean Android build, with no bloat. And it has 7mb of RAM, so it absolutely flies. It's the only Android phone I know that makes my iPhone feel slow.

3. It's £320. That's half the price of an iPhone or a Samsung or an HTC.

I've had a OnePlus 3 for a month and it is as sensational as people say. It is the only smartphone to have 6GB RAM which makes it amazingly fast. Everything just works instantly.

Its Dash charging system outperforms by a big margin other fast chargers..

Its lovely to hold and the screen is a gem. Fantastic.

Does it hiss?

This thread bought to you in association with the official phone of PB.com....OnePlus 3....

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

2. Did Diane James really say that - alongside Churchill and Thatcher - Putin was one of her heroes?

* OK, maybe foolish, rather than a fool.

Yes - she must be a Russian spy surely - isn't that the conclusion one leaps to about anyone who doesn't share the orthodox view of Uncle Vlad?

Or more likely that she has bad judgement.

FrancisUrquhart said:

This thread bought to you in association with the official phone of PB.com....OnePlus 3....

I have a burning desire for a Galaxy Note 7.....

Is the consensus view on Putin that he's a time traveller or an immortal?

FrancisUrquhart said:

This thread bought to you in association with the official phone of PB.com....OnePlus 3....

In light of the Chinese regulator's prescience regarding Samsung, maybe brands like OnePlus will start to make more of a virtue of their origins.

Tim_B said:

Sandpit said:

Tim_B said:

PlatoSaid said:

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are effectively tied in Florida, according to a new poll released Monday.

Clinton has the support of 41 percent of likely voters in the New York Times Upshot/Siena College Research poll. Trump is backed by 40 percent.

Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has 9 percent support and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has 2 percent.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/in-florida-clinton-and-trump-are-running-neck-and-neck/article/2602164?custom_click=rss

All will start to become clear a week today - the first debate.

At what time is the debate? I fear it will be an all nighter for those of us in a weird middle time zone.

Monday, September 26, 2016
First presidential debate
Moderator: Lester Holt, Anchor, NBC Nightly News
Location: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

The first debate will be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on major topics to be selected by the moderator and announced at least one week before the debate. The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. Candidates will then have an opportunity to respond to each other. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a deeper discussion of the topic.
Read more at http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-debate-schedule/2016-presidential-debate-schedule/#BKqxPDjmDQx0jV8f.99

Time is 9pm-10.30pm ET

That's not actually too bad. 5am start for me (GMT+4) so I'll wake early rather than stay up to watch. And boy, will it be worth watching!!

weejonnie said:

Alistair said:

weejonnie said:

Weird - we have two National Polls on 538

Poll 1 : Trump +7 (LV)
Poll 2: Clinton +9 (AV)

Is this a record divergence?

(And a Pennsylvania - Trump +1)

I'm totally not seeing any of these polls on 538, could you link?

You have to refresh the 'updates page http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/ the top 3 are Monday 10.30 EDT (3.30pm)

The Pennsylvania one is interesting because it is by a Democratic leaning pollster who has Hillary ahead by 9 nationally. If Penn does become competitive, and there is no sign of that till now, the FOP that @JackW has been going on about is distinctly possible.

rottenborough said:

MikeSmithson said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

2. Did Diane James really say that - alongside Churchill and Thatcher - Putin was one of her heroes?

* OK, maybe foolish, rather than a fool.

What is so good about the OnePlus 3? I know little about it, other than they had some viral marketing campaign.

1. Fabulous build quality. It really feels as good as an iPhone in terms of how it's made, really premium.

2. It's got a clean Android build, with no bloat. And it has 7mb of RAM, so it absolutely flies. It's the only Android phone I know that makes my iPhone feel slow.

3. It's £320. That's half the price of an iPhone or a Samsung or an HTC.

I've had a OnePlus 3 for a month and it is as sensational as people say. It is the only smartphone to have 6GB RAM which makes it amazingly fast. Everything just works instantly.

Its Dash charging system outperforms by a big margin other fast chargers..

Its lovely to hold and the screen is a gem. Fantastic.

Does it hiss?

OGH one does when it gets close to Kippers....

Mr Max: 6gb of RAM is correct , I mistyped

weejonnie said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

weejonnie said:

Weird - we have two National Polls on 538

Poll 1 : Trump +7 (LV)
Poll 2: Clinton +9 (AV)

Is this a record divergence?

(And a Pennsylvania - Trump +1)

I'm totally not seeing any of these polls on 538, could you link?

They are on RCP. The Trump +7 is LA Times who are either going to look like geniuses or complete idiots when this is over.

They are the only pollster who's picked up a 15 percentage point surge in Trump's African American vote.

They are either the best or worst pollster at this very moment in time.

If I had to put money on it...

Damn, I did, ages ago. Hey ho.

Rasmussen also have high levels of AA Trump support - but they have a Pro Republican Bias

Rasmussen have a lot of things, many covered in brass. Doesn't seem to bother them.

Scott_P said:

rcs1000 said:

Two quick discussion points:

1. Anyone buying an Android phone that's not the new OnePlus 3 is a fool*.

Not necessarily

https://www.silentcircle.com/products-and-solutions/devices/

Sadly, Silent Circle is likely to soon be (if it is not already) out of business.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, thought you were talking about the Japanese Grand Prix for a moment

That starts at a fantastic 09:00 here in the sandpit
Memories of getting up at what felt like the middle of the UK night to watch Senna and Prost crash into each other in 1989 and 1990.

DavidL said:

But look at the polling to date: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

This is either a very big move or a rogue poll.

Hang on, 538 says the fieldwork was Feb. 11-16. Presumably they've just found out about it.

Ignore.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, not checked, but I'd guess it's a tedious 5am. May be one for the radio (if I get up, that means walking the dog, which means a rise of 4.30am give or take).

Mr. Glenn, we can only salute their heroism.

You're an hour out, should be 6am BST (5am GMT)

weejonnie said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

DavidL said:

Alistair said:

weejonnie said:

Weird - we have two National Polls on 538

Poll 1 : Trump +7 (LV)
Poll 2: Clinton +9 (AV)

Is this a record divergence?

(And a Pennsylvania - Trump +1)

I'm totally not seeing any of these polls on 538, could you link?

They are on RCP. The Trump +7 is LA Times who are either going to look like geniuses or complete idiots when this is over.

They are the only pollster who's picked up a 15 percentage point surge in Trump's African American vote.

They are either the best or worst pollster at this very moment in time.

If I had to put money on it...

Damn, I did, ages ago. Hey ho.

Rasmussen also have high levels of AA Trump support - but they have a Pro Republican Bias

They did in one poll as far as I remember. They don't regularly release demographic information unless you are a platinum subscriber.

Mr. Sandpit, hmm. That's good, but does make it trickier deciding whether to bother getting up, or not.

Mr. Urquhart, could be wrong, but I believe that 4x4, left at the top of a mountain, also had its keys locked inside by Clarkson [by mistake].

oxfordsimon said:

O/T - But would I be right in saying that no failed Labour leadership candidate has ever gone on to win the top job?

I can't find any examples of someone having failed once and then succeeding. And whilst it could change in the future, it seems unlikely that anyone defeated by Corbyn could move forward and claim the leadership in the future.

Brown (although I think he withdrew/didn't stand in 1994 rather than lost)

Wanted New York and New Jersey bomb suspect sued his local police claiming they PERSECUTED him for being a Muslim

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3796768/Ahmad-Rahami-sued-local-police-New-Jersey-claiming-persecuted-Muslim.html

RobD said:

DavidL said:

weejonnie said:

Alistair said:

weejonnie said:

Weird - we have two National Polls on 538

Poll 1 : Trump +7 (LV)
Poll 2: Clinton +9 (AV)

Is this a record divergence?

(And a Pennsylvania - Trump +1)

I'm totally not seeing any of these polls on 538, could you link?

You have to refresh the 'updates page http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/ the top 3 are Monday 10.30 EDT (3.30pm)

The Pennsylvania one is interesting because it is by a Democratic leaning pollster who has Hillary ahead by 9 nationally. If Penn does become competitive, and there is no sign of that till now, the FOP that @JackW has been going on about is distinctly possible.

Ignore the PA one, that's from Feb but has only just been added to the list.

So's that Clinton +9 (Mea Culpa). A New National has been added - Trump +2 And Florida Trump +1 - so the polls tighten still further.