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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remem
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remember this from June 2007
Remember June 2007? So many Labour MPs had chickened out of doing other than nominate Brown for leader that there weren’t enough left for another candidate to go on the ballot. The result – the party got what the polling indicated was a leader who was an electoral liability – not someone who could lead them into a fourth successive general election victory.
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I caught a quick thing on I want to say CNN last night where they had a security expert on and he said they had charged 11 Somali's in the Twin Cities (Minneapolis/ St Pauls) with terrorist related offences in the past few months.
Quite why he has double the chance of becoming next Labour leader through not winning the contest rather than actually winning it I don't know.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/singapore-post-race-analysis-2016.html
On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.
For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules. I.e. Leaving the EU does cost you.
For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU. I.e. We have taken back some control and got extra migration controls.
Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.
It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
ABC
UPDATE: Source: Cell phone left behind with pressure cooker helped police identify Rahami: https://t.co/0DyOKLab9P https://t.co/sMgu1rq8jX
What would stop them following suit?
Yvette Cooper didn't chuck her hat in the ring this time -
Stephen Kinnock, Maria Eagle, Benn, Jarvis and plenty of others still to have a pop.
http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2016/09/eight-childrens-television-programmes-for-the-enjoyment-and-enlightenment-of-momentum-kids.html
Bagpuss. The archetypal fat cat had grown obese and lazy from the profits created by the wage slavery of several mice. His capitalist enterprise has since been nationalised, and a committee of mice now control the means of production. Professor Yaffle has been redeployed to more productive work on a collective farm.
In the Night Garden… The Night Garden has come under threat from ruthless developers, who plan a new airport runway and several thousand unaffordable executive homes. Iggle Piggle and three of the Wottingers were recently arrested after breaking into the Pinky Ponk’s hangar and gluing themselves to its propeller, under the brand of Black Lives Matter UK.
* This is particularly important if the attacks are using simple or improvised means and carried out by individuals. Someone who is already leaning towards supporting an Islamist terror group can see such attacks and think "I could do that", but a larger sophisticated group attack is out of their reach
Fear of copycats is one thing, losing trust of your people is far far worse.
2) Outside terrorism is even more difficult to defend than internal terrorism
3) It disadvantages HRC by giving weight to Trumps claims so affects the upcoming election.
4) He's a tit
It's a "join the dots" scenario really
In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
Just an ordinary fascist.
"For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled)"
Sorry, Mr. Royale, could you please explain that one to us. What does discount mean in this context? How is the Border Force to know who is high skilled and who is low skilled unless there is some pre-arrival method of checking (aka visas or work permits).
As ever with these discussions the tricky bit is how does the UK quickly and efficiently remove from its shores those that are in breach of their terms of entry? Unless such people as are deemed undesirable can be thrown out then there is not much point in setting up systems to control who comes in. That would seem to me to require the UK to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the ECtHR.
Before dumping too much on how crap the UK is at technology, two questions:
- where does the UK stand in the list of top technology research universities?
- which countries do technology better?
I'll give you the US, Germany, Japan and Switzerland. I'll even say that France and South Korea are on a par. That still leaves the UK as technology elite on a global scale. Sure, we could and should strive to do better, but we are not crap.
When I was a kid, the meme was that we were good at inventing stuff but crap at exploiting it commercially. Again, the facts don't truly support that either. Sure, we are not in the US' league, but the Unicorn figures show that we hold our own on that parameter too.
China, not so long ago, and North Korea still. No need to resort to fiction.
"The supporters of Candidate Donald Trump have crushed all historic fundraising records for small (under $200/per) “grass roots” donations. Over 2.1 million individual small donations in 3 months.
For perspective Hillary and Bill Clinton’s small donor base is 2.3 million, as accumulated over their political lifetimes. Donald Trump has amassed a group of 2.1 million small donor contributors since July – 3 months ago – the date of his first email request."
Interestingly, I've never seen his fundraising tweets - and many pro Trump tweets re YouTube never appear. I've tried it several times to check.
Those who dismissed this sort of pro Hillary media bias are wrong. I find it really disappointing that this sort of manipulation is going on.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/19/trump-shatters-all-prior-gop-fundraising-records-2-1-million-small-donations-in-90-days/
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125203945
radiostage show.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/19/paul-gascoigne-pleads-guilty-to-racially-aggravated-abuse-after/
It is changing slowly though, actually one of the knock on effects of universities having to become business focused.
Well if you can dodge the Border Force, then presumably you are high skilled...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/european-bankers-will-be-exempt-from-migration-curbs-after-brexi/
I think there may be a salary test, or some form of income bond. Excluding, say, free movement from those on under £40k a year but allowing it for those above.
The EU will want to be able to point to Britain to say because they voted to Leave they lost this, and haven't got that - plus they are excluded from this and won't ever benefit from that.
However, over and above that, I don't expect a fuller punishment beating because it would be likely to be even more destabilising for the EU to do so.
A homeland security official says the explosive devices in #NewYork and #NewJersey were linked
A lot could change, but at moment it seems Labour members are determined to allow, or are unable to stop, the party moving to such a left-wing position that it is utterly unelectable under FPTP, given swing voters, marginal seats etc etc. It is purity over power and purity is winning hands down.
In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.
I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.
Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.
TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest.
http://youtu.be/GBvfiCdk-jc
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/19/labour-urged-to-make-immigration-controls-a-key-brexit-demand
Fear of UKIP in Labour seats.
How many Tory seats would be in danger from UKIP if there was a 'betrayal' over immigration? May be a better bet for the tories to go soft brexit, induce a betrayal, which ends up swapping out a bunch of labour seats for UKIP ones, with minimal damage to themselves.
This also helps put some clear yellow water between the Lib Dems and Labour. LDs for full EEA keeping FM and single market, Labour against it.
So that means two of Britain's Unicorns are not just Edinburgh based but based out of the same office building. That's some concentration.
I'm sure you've guessed that I am virtue signaling.
What is his evidence that Corbyn can’t provide the necessary leadership in opposition? And even if that proves compelling, was nine months really enough time before MPs tried to oust a politician elected by the party’s membership?
“I wasn’t in favour of there being a challenge,” says Smith quickly. “But once a challenge had been made then I felt I needed to stand because I felt that I had something to say about the future of the Labour party, and a lot of other people in the PLP [parliamentary Labour party] felt that about me, which is why they asked me to stand.”
So Smith would have preferred to see Corbyn allowed to carry on for longer?
“Yes, is the honest answer,” he says.
Not that this is an admission of regret about his bid to topple the sitting leader.
“The truth is, things weren’t going well, things aren’t going well. Nine months may be a short period of time but it’s a period of time in which the Labour party has gone backwards,” he says. “We are at a lower ebb than we’ve been in the polls at any time since 1982, and we’re six years into a Tory government and right now they are unfettered, they feel able to act with total impunity.”
Thanks to Jonathon too.
Of course, he may still last until end of 2019. But no longer.
If a person earning more than £x p.a. is to be given easier access to the UK then there has to be a mechanism for determining that the person has a solid job offer that includes a salary of £x+ befor he he is allowed in. That sounds a lot like a visa/work permit system to me and not a "discounted" system of free movement.
It's true that there is some tension between the Commission and some countries, and a bit of a power struggle going on. It's also true that there are disagreements about how to handle Brexit, although those disagreements are across countries (and different politicians within countries). Juncker is just one figure in that debate.