politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LAB selectorate polls don’t always get it right – remem
Comments
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Plenty of Tory marginals in Essex and Kent and the East Midlands and South West where UKIP are a threat tooParistonda said:Labour finally coming round to ending free movement?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/19/labour-urged-to-make-immigration-controls-a-key-brexit-demand
Fear of UKIP in Labour seats.
How many Tory seats would be in danger from UKIP if there was a 'betrayal' over immigration? May be a better bet for the tories to go soft brexit, induce a betrayal, which ends up swapping out a bunch of labour seats for UKIP ones, with minimal damage to themselves.
This also helps put some clear yellow water between the Lib Dems and Labour. LDs for full EEA keeping FM and single market, Labour against it.0 -
I saw that over the weekend - very cynical - changing debits to fit under the $100 mark for fraud.Pulpstar said:
''Careless' Hillary' has been debiting the accounts of her donors without authorisation.PlatoSaid said:Small donations in play snip
"The supporters of Candidate Donald Trump have crushed all historic fundraising records for small (under $200/per) “grass roots” donations. Over 2.1 million individual small donations in 3 months.
For perspective Hillary and Bill Clinton’s small donor base is 2.3 million, as accumulated over their political lifetimes. Donald Trump has amassed a group of 2.1 million small donor contributors since July – 3 months ago – the date of his first email request.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/19/trump-shatters-all-prior-gop-fundraising-records-2-1-million-small-donations-in-90-days/
There's far too many of these and varying numbers to discount as an accident. I honestly can't understand how blinkered so many on the Dems side can ignore this stuff. I guess it's like Corbyn.
Trump is a massive braggart, but he's saying what needs saying and not stealing from poor voters.
“We get up to a hundred calls a day from Hillary’s low-income supporters complaining about multiple unauthorized charges,” a source, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of job security, from the Wells Fargo fraud department told the Observer. The source claims that the Clinton campaign has been pulling this stunt since Spring of this year. The Hillary for America campaign will overcharge small donors by repeatedly charging small amounts such as $20 to the bankcards of donors who made a one-time donation. However, the Clinton campaign strategically doesn’t overcharge these donors $100 or more because the bank would then be obligated to investigate the fraud...
The New York Times reported in 2007 that Clinton’s first presidential campaign had to refund and subtract hundreds of thousands of dollars from its first-quarter total often because donors’ credit cards were charged twice. Additionally, it was reported that Clinton had to refund a stunning $2.8 million in donations, three times more than the $900K President Barack Obama’s campaign refunded."
http://observer.com/2016/09/exclusive-hillary-clinton-campaign-systematically-overcharging-poorest-donors/
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Small anecdote - I happened to meet Bill De Blasio while he was campaigning in Prospect Park, he was shaking hands with members of the public as I walked by - he has the limpest handshake of anyone I've ever met. I wouldn't be able to vote for him on that basis alone.MTimT said:
He is the mayor who, upon assuming office, decided that getting rid of horse-drawn carriages from Central Park was the city's top priority.MaxPB said:Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.
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I am no fan at all of Corbyn , but it may be worth reminding Kinnock - in view of his Panorama comments - of his own electoral record. In 1987 he lost to the Tories by 11.8% and five years later he was defeated by 7.6%. Last week Mori and YouGov had Labour trailing by 6% and 7% respectively - both a bit better than his own acievement!HurstLlama said:
Mr. Borough, how would you reconcile your views with those who point out that Labour polling is not actually that bad?rottenborough said:
Personally, I can't see there being another challenge before the last year or so before the next GE now. So summer 2019 perhaps. A last desperate effort to avert disaster. By then it should be clear the scale of what is coming.Sandpit said:
Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.MaxPB said:
Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!Richard_Nabavi said:
You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
A lot could change, but at moment it seems Labour members are determined to allow, or are unable to stop, the party moving to such a left-wing position that it is utterly unelectable under FPTP, given swing voters, marginal seats etc etc. It is purity over power and purity is winning hands down.
In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.0 -
Perhaps not yet, but I think his time will come. He is alienating people across the EU, and his State of the Union speech last week didn't help.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's no will. This is a British Eurosceptic fantasy. Our EU friends don't see it like that - neither countries nor MEPs.Casino_Royale said:Speaker Martin. Where there's a will there's a way. One way would be to threaten him with an EU parliament vote of censure unless he steps down, coordinated through national leaders.
Of course, he may still last until end of 2019. But no longer.
It's true that there is some tension between the Commission and some countries, and a bit of a power struggle going on. It's also true that there are disagreements about how to handle Brexit, although those disagreements are across countries (and different politicians within countries). Juncker is just one figure in that debate.0 -
Avoiding economic disaster (eg unemployment at the rates we saw in the 1980's) counts as a success. We probably will avoid economic disaster, so it will be a success.JonathanD said:
Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.MTimT said:
For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.MaxPB said:
Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.Scott_P said:
Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.Casino_Royale said:It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
What would stop them following suit?0 -
Does he not also eat pizza with a knife and fork?Paristonda said:Small anecdote - I happened to meet Bill De Blasio while he was campaigning in Prospect Park, he was shaking hands with members of the public as I walked by - he has the limpest handshake of anyone I've ever met. I wouldn't be able to vote for him on that basis alone.
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Not true: the principle that decisions about the uk should be taken in the uk was the most often given reason for voting leave - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/HYUFD said:
Not for most Leavers, for them the most important thing was to cut immigrationJonathanD said:
Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.MTimT said:
For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.MaxPB said:
Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.Scott_P said:
Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.Casino_Royale said:It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
What would stop them following suit?
Border control came second.
And anyway he said *economic success".0 -
Fair point, but the Government would argue its free movement in all but name above a threshold; just flash your passport and permit (or e-permit) at the UK border and walk straight through.HurstLlama said:
I certainly don't expect you or anyone on here to Justify HMG policy, i am just interested in exploring some ideas that people put forward.Casino_Royale said:
It's not for me to justify HMG policy but the intent and direction of it is clear to me from Hammond's statement on free movement of financial workers from the EU a couple of weeks ago:HurstLlama said:@Casino_Royale
"For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled)"
Sorry, Mr. Royale, could you please explain that one too us. What does discount mean in this context? How is the Border Force to know who is high skilled and who is low skilled unless there is some pre-arrival method of checking (aka visas or work permits).
As ever with these discussions the tricky bit is how does the UK quickly and efficiently remove from its shores those that are in breach of their terms of entry? Unless such people as are deemed undesirable can be thrown out then there is not much point in setting up systems to control who comes in. That would seem to me to require the UK to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the ECtHR.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/european-bankers-will-be-exempt-from-migration-curbs-after-brexi/
I think there may be a salary test, or some form of income bond. Excluding, say, free movement from those on under £40k a year but allowing it for those above.
If a person earning more than £x p.a. is to be given easier access to the UK then there has to be a mechanism for determining that the person has a solid job offer that includes a salary of £x+ befor he he is allowed in. That sounds a lot like a visa/work permit system to me and not a "discounted" system of free movement.
Those without get challenged.
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Defendant hadn't heard of Izzard.
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-09-19/brexit-supporter-admits-stealing-eddie-izzards-pink-beret-during-pro-europe-march/0 -
justin124 said:
I am no fan at all of Corbyn , but it may be worth reminding Kinnock - in view of his Panorama comments - of his own electoral record. In 1987 he lost to the Tories by 11.8% and five years later he was defeated by 7.6%. Last week Mori and YouGov had Labour trailing by 6% and 7% respectively - both a bit better than his own acievement!HurstLlama said:
Mr. Borough, how would you reconcile your views with those who point out that Labour polling is not actually that bad?rottenborough said:
Personally, I can't see there being another challenge before the last year or so before the next GE now. So summer 2019 perhaps. A last desperate effort to avert disaster. By then it should be clear the scale of what is coming.Sandpit said:
Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.MaxPB said:
Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!Richard_Nabavi said:
You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
A lot could change, but at moment it seems Labour members are determined to allow, or are unable to stop, the party moving to such a left-wing position that it is utterly unelectable under FPTP, given swing voters, marginal seats etc etc. It is purity over power and purity is winning hands down.
In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.
You cannot compare an opinion poll with a GE. Labour under Corbyn will be slaughtered at an actual election.
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There is a story to be told as to why the UK government was so opposed to his appointment yet the rest of the EU was fine with it.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps not yet, but I think his time will come. He is alienating people across the EU, and his State of the Union speech last week didn't help.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's no will. This is a British Eurosceptic fantasy. Our EU friends don't see it like that - neither countries nor MEPs.Casino_Royale said:Speaker Martin. Where there's a will there's a way. One way would be to threaten him with an EU parliament vote of censure unless he steps down, coordinated through national leaders.
Of course, he may still last until end of 2019. But no longer.
It's true that there is some tension between the Commission and some countries, and a bit of a power struggle going on. It's also true that there are disagreements about how to handle Brexit, although those disagreements are across countries (and different politicians within countries). Juncker is just one figure in that debate.
In EU terms 2019 is close enough that I'd guess that while he won't get re-appointed, he isn't going to get summarily dismissed either. I'm sure that would set a bad precedent and he is a too useful a scape goat for anything that goes wrong for others to want to get rid of him.0 -
I notice Canada has become the new Sweden in some circles...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-374068570 -
The institutional mood of the EU can be judged by the choice of Guy Verhofstadt as the European Parliament's negotiator. Wanting to take a hard line on Britain is a mainstream view.0
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Scan's 3XS systems are superb, can highly, highly recommend themJosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.
Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.
TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest.
https://www.scan.co.uk/3xs
Look at customizing one of their Value Gaming range rather than Custom Pro Gaming computers as the Pro Gaming range come with unnecessary bollocks like fancy cases and LED lighting0 -
Donald Trump famously avoids shaking hands, for fear of catching something.Paristonda said:
Small anecdote - I happened to meet Bill De Blasio while he was campaigning in Prospect Park, he was shaking hands with members of the public as I walked by - he has the limpest handshake of anyone I've ever met. I wouldn't be able to vote for him on that basis alone.MTimT said:
He is the mayor who, upon assuming office, decided that getting rid of horse-drawn carriages from Central Park was the city's top priority.MaxPB said:Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.
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Kinnock took Labour from 28% when he took over to 34% when he left. Corbyn has taken Labour right back to 28% again in some polls. Kinnock set the way for Blair and the 1997 Labour landslide, Corbyn may set the way for Labour's destructionjustin124 said:
I am no fan at all of Corbyn , but it may be worth reminding Kinnock - in view of his Panorama comments - of his own electoral record. In 1987 he lost to the Tories by 11.8% and five years later he was defeated by 7.6%. Last week Mori and YouGov had Labour trailing by 6% and 7% respectively - both a bit better than his own acievement!HurstLlama said:
Mr. Borough, how would you reconcile your views with those who point out that Labour polling is not actually that bad?rottenborough said:
Personally, I can't see there being another challenge before the last year or so before the next GE now. So summer 2019 perhaps. A last desperate effort to avert disaster. By then it should be clear the scale of what is coming.Sandpit said:
Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.MaxPB said:
Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!Richard_Nabavi said:
You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
A lot could change, but at moment it seems Labour members are determined to allow, or are unable to stop, the party moving to such a left-wing position that it is utterly unelectable under FPTP, given swing voters, marginal seats etc etc. It is purity over power and purity is winning hands down.
In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.0 -
Within normal statistical parameters, probably wouldn't have been reported if hadn't been for the Brexit vote. ©PB BrexitoriesPong said:
As opposed to Tom from Batley, who, it turns out, didn't have mental health problems when he dispatched Jo Cox.FrancisUrquhart said:
Known locally as Dave, long history of mental health problems and not a very good Muslim often seen drinking / doing drugs and even might be gay.PlatoSaid said:I'm shocked
J Peter Donald
Wanted: Ahmad Khan Rahami, 28 year old male, is being sought in connection with the Chelsea bombing. #nyc https://t.co/hSxhMqO7Qh
Just an ordinary fascist.0 -
MaxPB said:
Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.
PlatoSaid said:Small donations in play
"The supporters of Candidate Donald Trump have crushed all historic fundraising records for small (under $200/per) “grass roots” donations. Over 2.1 million individual small donations in 3 months.
For perspective Hillary and Bill Clinton’s small donor base is 2.3 million, as accumulated over their political lifetimes. Donald Trump has amassed a group of 2.1 million small donor contributors since July – 3 months ago – the date of his first email request."
Interestingly, I've never seen his fundraising tweets - and many pro Trump tweets re YouTube never appear. I've tried it several times to check.
Those who dismissed this sort of pro Hillary media bias are wrong. I find it really disappointing that this sort of manipulation is going on.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/19/trump-shatters-all-prior-gop-fundraising-records-2-1-million-small-donations-in-90-days/
FFS, it's an algorithm. There's no bias, it's just reflecting the fact that most Twitter users are not pro-Trump so his tweets don't trend as much.PlatoSaid said:Small donations in play
"The supporters of Candidate Donald Trump have crushed all historic fundraising records for small (under $200/per) “grass roots” donations. Over 2.1 million individual small donations in 3 months.
For perspective Hillary and Bill Clinton’s small donor base is 2.3 million, as accumulated over their political lifetimes. Donald Trump has amassed a group of 2.1 million small donor contributors since July – 3 months ago – the date of his first email request."
Interestingly, I've never seen his fundraising tweets - and many pro Trump tweets re YouTube never appear. I've tried it several times to check.
Those who dismissed this sort of pro Hillary media bias are wrong. I find it really disappointing that this sort of manipulation is going on.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/19/trump-shatters-all-prior-gop-fundraising-records-2-1-million-small-donations-in-90-days/0 -
His infamously tiny hands probably make for a weird handshake anyway ;-)DecrepitJohnL said:
Donald Trump famously avoids shaking hands, for fear of catching something.Paristonda said:
Small anecdote - I happened to meet Bill De Blasio while he was campaigning in Prospect Park, he was shaking hands with members of the public as I walked by - he has the limpest handshake of anyone I've ever met. I wouldn't be able to vote for him on that basis alone.MTimT said:
He is the mayor who, upon assuming office, decided that getting rid of horse-drawn carriages from Central Park was the city's top priority.MaxPB said:Governor Cuomo is now saying there is a foreign link to the bombs/bombers. Bill de Blassio is looking like a right tit today. I don't understand the rush to dissociate probable terrorism from terroists. It seems completely ridiculous.
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Corbyn was going to run anywayjustin124 said:A pivotal moment. Had Harman not been elected Deputy Leader she would not have been Acting Leader in July 2015, and Labour would have avoided her disastrous decision to abstain on Osborne's Welfare proposals as set out in his July Budget. Without that Corbyn would not have been propelled into the Leadership by the outrage that stemmed from that decision.
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FREEEEEEEEEDOOOOO.....
Oh, wait
@lindayueh: Dep 1st minister: 2nd Scottish independence referendum unlikely to be held until #Brexit negotiations are completed https://t.co/HJcMMoMO340 -
The two are interlinked and immigration remains the top political issueIshmael_X said:
Not true: the principle that decisions about the uk should be taken in the uk was the most often given reason for voting leave - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/HYUFD said:
Not for most Leavers, for them the most important thing was to cut immigrationJonathanD said:
Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.MTimT said:
For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.MaxPB said:
Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.Scott_P said:
Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.Casino_Royale said:It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
What would stop them following suit?
Border control came second.
And anyway he said *economic success".0 -
SienaCollege Poll has Hilary +1 in Florida , field work 10th-to-14th so mostly after the Clinton Collapse.
https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/clinton-41-trump-40-in-four-way-sunshine-state-race0 -
Amongst some of the elites, with Le Pen leading French polls, Wilders in the Netherlands, 5☆ in Italy near the top and the AfD on the rise in Germany the people may think differently, they do not want an easy ride for the UK but want the EU to reform too and come to a reasonable deal. Of course the harder line the EU takes the harder line the UK will take restricting access of EU goods to the UK in responseAlastairMeeks said:The institutional mood of the EU can be judged by the choice of Guy Verhofstadt as the European Parliament's negotiator. Wanting to take a hard line on Britain is a mainstream view.
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I don't have high expectations of Corbyn outperforming during an election campaign, but I am also far from convinced that May will shine in that environment - a view reinforced by last week's PMQs. If we look back at elections since World War 2, most campaigns have favoured the Opposition rather than the incumbent - the exceptions being 2015 - 1992 - 1979 - and 1951.MarkHopkins said:justin124 said:
I am no fan at all of Corbyn , but it may be worth reminding Kinnock - in view of his Panorama comments - of his own electoral record. In 1987 he lost to the Tories by 11.8% and five years later he was defeated by 7.6%. Last week Mori and YouGov had Labour trailing by 6% and 7% respectively - both a bit better than his own acievement!HurstLlama said:
Mr. Borough, how would you reconcile your views with those who point out that Labour polling is not actually that bad?rottenborough said:Sandpit said:Pulpstar said:
Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.MaxPB said:
Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!Richard_Nabavi said:
You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.
You cannot compare an opinion poll with a GE. Labour under Corbyn will be slaughtered at an actual election.
Even on the basis of polls, however, Kinnock is not well placed to comment. At the same stage of the 1987 Parliament - late October 1988 - the polls were giving the Tories a lead of between 9 and 11.5%.0 -
The direction of travel for the EU in terms of negotiating will depend very much more on the collective will of the council of ministers - the leaderships of the member states. They will have specific interests which they wish to safeguard, but the most important of those will be the trade and financial flows which the UK is involved in.AlastairMeeks said:The institutional mood of the EU can be judged by the choice of Guy Verhofstadt as the European Parliament's negotiator. Wanting to take a hard line on Britain is a mainstream view.
I don't doubt that they will put on a stern face, (hence Verhofstadt), but they will not act against their own national best interest to 'further the project' -nor will they attempt to offer up some kind of punishment beating as was alleged before the referendum.0 -
"A former student has appeared at the Old Bailey accused of planning to launch an Islamic State-inspired nail-bomb attack in central London.
Haroon Ali Syed, 19, appeared via video link from Belmarsh high-security prison in southeast London. The teenager, from Hounslow in west London, was arrested at his home on the morning of 8 September. He was charged under the terrorism act five days later.
The Crown alleges that he planned to detonate a nail-bomb, targeting shoppers on London's busy Oxford Street.
http://news.sky.com/story/man-in-court-over-alleged-nail-bomb-plot-targeting-oxford-street-105849180 -
Mr. Jessop, I would earnestly commend to you the company Chillblast. I got put on to them by a mate of mine who had heard about them from a another mate of his. I looked at their website and not being technically minded I couldn't decide which of their machines suited me best. So I rang them up.JosiasJessop said:Off-topic:
I'm on the market for a new gaming PC, and I was wondering if anyone here could give some advice on suppliers (ISTR this has been talked about before). I can't be faffed to assemble myself, but would like names of reliable, reputable gaming system builders.
Also, if anyone has any advice on what to look for, or not. Price range £1,000 to 1,500, not including monitor, keyboard and other peripherals. As it's a gaming PC, good graphics are a must (i.e. GTX 980 performance min). Processor less important, but would like an i7 ideally. Good power supply a must.
TIA. Doing my part for the post-Brexit vote economy by spending money that would otherwise just sit in the bank gaining cobwebs and f'all interest.
I wanted a games machine that would be top notch now and allow a bit of future proofing. We chatted about what games I played and we agreed on a spec that was, "Skyrim on max settings, running silky smooth" (this was a few years ago). The chap I was talking to was obviously a game player himself because he he knew exactly what I meant. He emailed me a spec I said go for it and about four years later I am still using the same machine and it has coped with all the games that have come out in between (the graphics on Elite Dangerous were so good, I sometimes used to sit there and just look at them).
So I would recommend that you talk to Chillblast, a company of gamers who build machines for gamers.
https://www.chillblast.com/
P.S. For your budget I am sure they will do something very nice, but talk to them explain your gaming needs. A set up like mine, now running three screens for flight sims (I did mention future proofing), may not be what you want.0 -
Indeed - but the point is that he would not have won! Without Harman's poor judgement he would have done no better than a fairly distant third behind Burnham /Cooper.HYUFD said:
Corbyn was going to run anywayjustin124 said:A pivotal moment. Had Harman not been elected Deputy Leader she would not have been Acting Leader in July 2015, and Labour would have avoided her disastrous decision to abstain on Osborne's Welfare proposals as set out in his July Budget. Without that Corbyn would not have been propelled into the Leadership by the outrage that stemmed from that decision.
0 -
Kinnock was of course left with the worst ever Labour performance in 1983 and a party rife with Militant to clean up. Even Miliband left Corbyn a better legacy than Foot did and Corbyn seems determined to take Labour back to Foot levelsjustin124 said:
I don't have high expectations of Corbyn outperforming during an election campaign, but I am also far from convinced that May will shine in that environment - a view reinforced by last week's PMQs. If we look back at elections since World War 2 most campaigns have favoured the Opposition rather than the incumbent - the exceptions being 2015 - 1992 - 1979 - and 1951.MarkHopkins said:justin124 said:
I am no fan at all of Corbyn , but it may be worth reminding Kinnock - in view of his Panorama comments - of his own electoral record. In 1987 he lost to the Tories by 11.8% and five years later he was defeated by 7.6%. Last week Mori and YouGov had Labour trailing by 6% and 7% respectively - both a bit better than his own acievement!HurstLlama said:
Mr. Borough, how would you reconcile your views with those who point out that Labour polling is not actually that bad?rottenborough said:Sandpit said:Pulpstar said:
Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.MaxPB said:
Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!Richard_Nabavi said:
You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.
You cannot compare an opinion poll with a GE. Labour under Corbyn will be slaughtered at an actual election.
If even on the basis of polls, however, Kinnock is not well placed to comment. At the same stage of the 1987 Parliament - late October 1988 - the polls were giving the Tories a lead of between 9 and 11.5%.0 -
https://mic.com/articles/150640/donald-trump-donations-how-to-stop-recurring-payments-credit-cards#.BAPbug7LvPulpstar said:
''Careless' Hillary' has been debiting the accounts of her donors without authorisation.PlatoSaid said:Small donations in play
"The supporters of Candidate Donald Trump have crushed all historic fundraising records for small (under $200/per) “grass roots” donations. Over 2.1 million individual small donations in 3 months.
For perspective Hillary and Bill Clinton’s small donor base is 2.3 million, as accumulated over their political lifetimes. Donald Trump has amassed a group of 2.1 million small donor contributors since July – 3 months ago – the date of his first email request.
Interestingly, I've never seen his fundraising tweets - and many pro Trump tweets re YouTube never appear. I've tried it several times to check.
Those who dismissed this sort of pro Hillary media bias are wrong. I find it really disappointing that this sort of manipulation is going on.
"The supporters of Candidate Donald Trump have crushed all historic fundraising records for small (under $200/per) “grass roots” donations. Over 2.1 million individual small donations in 3 months.
For perspective Hillary and Bill Clinton’s small donor base is 2.3 million, as accumulated over their political lifetimes. Donald Trump has amassed a group of 2.1 million small donor contributors since July – 3 months ago – the date of his first email request.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/19/trump-shatters-all-prior-gop-fundraising-records-2-1-million-small-donations-in-90-days/0 -
The LA Times is the only poll that has picked up a shift in the Trump African American vote from noise (about 4%) to near 20%.
It is either completely visionary and will rewrite the rules on how to conduct polling, or it's wrong.0 -
In actual fact, the best policy for the EU (meaning the institutions of the EU) is to do everything in its power to tie the UK into as many EU strictures, projects, and fees as possible. And going alongside that, the 'benefits' of single market access, which as the BOP indicates, work much more in the EU's favour than in the UK's. EU-Max as it were. This will prevent the UK from becoming an embarrassing turbo-capitalist Singapore in the EU's doorstep, and demonstrate that all leaving does is create the much-vaunted 'government by fax'. This is a prize for the EU that is well worth finding a compromise on immigration for.MaxPB said:
His comments on the EU being willing to take economic hardship in order to punish the UK have gone down extremely poorly across the bloc.Casino_Royale said:FPT
On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.
For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.
For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.
Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.
It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
Thankfully what it looks like they'll do is throw a tantrum instead, forcing hard Brexit and a Britain that once again chooses 'the open seas'.0 -
The likes of Field and Khan would certainly still have nominated him and he would still have won the membership easilyjustin124 said:
Indeed - but the point is that he would not have won! Without Harman's poor judgement he would have done no better than a fairly distant third behind Burnham /Cooper.HYUFD said:
Corbyn was going to run anywayjustin124 said:A pivotal moment. Had Harman not been elected Deputy Leader she would not have been Acting Leader in July 2015, and Labour would have avoided her disastrous decision to abstain on Osborne's Welfare proposals as set out in his July Budget. Without that Corbyn would not have been propelled into the Leadership by the outrage that stemmed from that decision.
0 -
A top Corbynista can be revealed as a convicted criminal who was given a suspended sentence for his role in a violent bank attack. Aaron Bastani, who runs Jeremy Corbyn’s favoured ‘new media’ outlet Novara Media, has had a string of brushes with the law.
http://order-order.com/2016/09/19/top-corbynista-convicted-role-bank-attack/
Guy is formally the organizer of UK UnCut protests. I am sure I read somewhere that he had been invited onto Question Time as well.0 -
A lot has changed since 2014.JonathanD said:
There is a story to be told as to why the UK government was so opposed to his appointment yet the rest of the EU was fine with it.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps not yet, but I think his time will come. He is alienating people across the EU, and his State of the Union speech last week didn't help.Richard_Nabavi said:
There's no will. This is a British Eurosceptic fantasy. Our EU friends don't see it like that - neither countries nor MEPs.Casino_Royale said:Speaker Martin. Where there's a will there's a way. One way would be to threaten him with an EU parliament vote of censure unless he steps down, coordinated through national leaders.
Of course, he may still last until end of 2019. But no longer.
It's true that there is some tension between the Commission and some countries, and a bit of a power struggle going on. It's also true that there are disagreements about how to handle Brexit, although those disagreements are across countries (and different politicians within countries). Juncker is just one figure in that debate.
In EU terms 2019 is close enough that I'd guess that while he won't get re-appointed, he isn't going to get summarily dismissed either. I'm sure that would set a bad precedent and he is a too useful a scape goat for anything that goes wrong for others to want to get rid of him.0 -
I suspect this is what the grammar school policy is about (along with similar policies not yet unveiled).HYUFD said:
Plenty of Tory marginals in Essex and Kent and the East Midlands and South West where UKIP are a threat tooParistonda said:Labour finally coming round to ending free movement?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/19/labour-urged-to-make-immigration-controls-a-key-brexit-demand
Fear of UKIP in Labour seats.
How many Tory seats would be in danger from UKIP if there was a 'betrayal' over immigration? May be a better bet for the tories to go soft brexit, induce a betrayal, which ends up swapping out a bunch of labour seats for UKIP ones, with minimal damage to themselves.
This also helps put some clear yellow water between the Lib Dems and Labour. LDs for full EEA keeping FM and single market, Labour against it.
Throwing enough red meat to kipper inclined voters that May will still get a decent majority in 2020 after a soft brexit with us still in EEA/EFTA and largely following EEA/EFTA immigration rules0 -
HYUFD said:
That does not explain his poor performance for two years following the 1987 election.justin124 said:
Kinnock was of course left with the worst ever Labour performance in 1983 and a party rife with Militant to clean up. Even Miliband left Corbyn a better legacy than Foot did and Corbyn seems determined to take Labour back to Foot levelsMarkHopkins said:
I don't have high expectations of Corbyn outperforming during an election campaign, but I am also far from convinced that May will shine in that environment - a view reinforced by last week's PMQs. If we look back at elections since World War 2 most campaigns have favoured the Opposition rather than the incumbent - the exceptions being 2015 - 1992 - 1979 - and 1951.justin124 said:HurstLlama said:
I am no fan at all of Corbyn , but it may be worth reminding Kinnock - in view of his Panorama comments - of his own electoral record. In 1987 he lost to the Tories by 11.8% and five years later he was defeated by 7.6%. Last week Mori and YouGov had Labour trailing by 6% and 7% respectively - both a bit better than his own acievement!rottenborough said:
Mr. Borough, how would you reconcile your views with those who point out that Labour polling is not actually that bad?Sandpit said:Pulpstar said:MaxPB said:Richard_Nabavi said:
!AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.
You cannot compare an opinion poll with a GE. Labour under Corbyn will be slaughtered at an actual election.
If even on the basis of polls, however, Kinnock is not well placed to comment. At the same stage of the 1987 Parliament - late October 1988 - the polls were giving the Tories a lead of between 9 and 11.5%.0 -
Those questioned by Ashcroft were expressly offered immigration as a "main reason"; 33% chose it, against 49% who chose decision making. What do you mean "immigration remains the top political issue", and how do you know?HYUFD said:
The two are interlinked and immigration remains the top political issueIshmael_X said:
Not true: the principle that decisions about the uk should be taken in the uk was the most often given reason for voting leave - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/HYUFD said:
Not for most Leavers, for them the most important thing was to cut immigrationJonathanD said:
Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.MTimT said:
For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.MaxPB said:
Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.Scott_P said:
Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.Casino_Royale said:It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
What would stop them following suit?
Border control came second.
And anyway he said *economic success".0 -
It's normally around this time in the US electoral cycle that lots of stories start to appear in the press about US citizens wanting to mass emigrate to Canada.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice Canada has become the new Sweden in some circles...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-374068570 -
Kinder, gentler politics.FrancisUrquhart said:A top Corbynista can be revealed as a convicted criminal who was given a suspended sentence for his role in a violent bank attack. Aaron Bastani, who runs Jeremy Corbyn’s favoured ‘new media’ outlet Novara Media, has had a string of brushes with the law.
http://order-order.com/2016/09/19/top-corbynista-convicted-role-bank-attack/
Guy is formally the organizer of UK UnCut protests. I am sure I read somewhere that he had been invited onto Question Time as well.0 -
Britannia waived, Theresa rules:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-royal-yacht-britannia-boris-johnson-brexit_uk_57dfc6dee4b0d584f7f1c7a9?31ebsl2g3cd8qto6r
She's doing an awful lot of overruling at present.0 -
justin124 said:
Thatcher had a post general election poll bounce but by 1990 Kinnock was on over 50% in the polls and only Thatcher's downfall and replacement by Major stopped him becoming PM. Get back to me when Corbyn is polling that high!HYUFD said:
That does not explain his poor performance for two years following the 1987 election.justin124 said:
Kinnock was of course left with the worst ever Labour performance in 1983 and a party rife with Militant to clean up. Even Miliband left Corbyn a better legacy than Foot did and Corbyn seems determined to take Labour back to Foot levelsMarkHopkins said:
I don't have high expectations of Corbyn outperforming during an election campaign, but I am also far from convinced that May will shine in that environment - a view reinforced by last week's PMQs. If we look back at elections since World War 2 most campaigns have favoured the Opposition rather than the incumbent - the exceptions being 2015 - 1992 - 1979 - and 1951.justin124 said:HurstLlama said:
I am no fan at all of Corbyn , but it may be worth reminding Kinnock - in view of his Panorama comments - of his own electoral record. In 1987 he lost to the Tories by 11.8% and five years later he was defeated by 7.6%. Last week Mori and YouGov had Labour trailing by 6% and 7% respectively - both a bit better than his own acievement!rottenborough said:
Mr. Borough, how would you reconcile your views with those who point out that Labour polling is not actually that bad?Sandpit said:Pulpstar said:MaxPB said:Richard_Nabavi said:
!AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.
You cannot compare an opinion poll with a GE. Labour under Corbyn will be slaughtered at an actual election.
If even on the basis of polls, however, Kinnock is not well placed to comment. At the same stage of the 1987 Parliament - late October 1988 - the polls were giving the Tories a lead of between 9 and 11.5%.0 -
Actually, now I think about it, that's a remarkably partisan article - even by Gavin Hewitt's standards.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice Canada has become the new Sweden in some circles...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37406857
Perhaps he wants a job with Trudeau?0 -
Squabbling over MOE stuff decades after the event. There's straws and then there's Justin124 straws!0
-
Maybe but I doubt we will fully be in the EEA though maybe fully in EFTAPaul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect this is what the grammar school policy is about (along with similar policies not yet unveiled).HYUFD said:
Plenty of Tory marginals in Essex and Kent and the East Midlands and South West where UKIP are a threat tooParistonda said:Labour finally coming round to ending free movement?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/19/labour-urged-to-make-immigration-controls-a-key-brexit-demand
Fear of UKIP in Labour seats.
How many Tory seats would be in danger from UKIP if there was a 'betrayal' over immigration? May be a better bet for the tories to go soft brexit, induce a betrayal, which ends up swapping out a bunch of labour seats for UKIP ones, with minimal damage to themselves.
This also helps put some clear yellow water between the Lib Dems and Labour. LDs for full EEA keeping FM and single market, Labour against it.
Throwing enough red meat to kipper inclined voters that May will still get a decent majority in 2020 after a soft brexit with us still in EEA/EFTA and largely following EEA/EFTA immigration rules0 -
The August polling on top political issues which was a thread only a few weeks ago. Immigration was the top issue in itIshmael_X said:
Those questioned by Ashcroft were expressly offered immigration as a "main reason"; 33% chose it, against 49% who chose decision making. What do you mean "immigration remains the top political issue", and how do you know?HYUFD said:
The two are interlinked and immigration remains the top political issueIshmael_X said:
Not true: the principle that decisions about the uk should be taken in the uk was the most often given reason for voting leave - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/HYUFD said:
Not for most Leavers, for them the most important thing was to cut immigrationJonathanD said:
Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.MTimT said:
For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.MaxPB said:
Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.Scott_P said:
Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.Casino_Royale said:It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
What would stop them following suit?
Border control came second.
And anyway he said *economic success".0 -
The Britannia required 250 crew to serve one or two Important People. That's enough to man two of the new frigates and those sailors are supposed to fight.AlastairMeeks said:Britannia waived, Theresa rules:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-royal-yacht-britannia-boris-johnson-brexit_uk_57dfc6dee4b0d584f7f1c7a9?31ebsl2g3cd8qto6r
She's doing an awful lot of overruling at present.0 -
"confirmed he was convicted of a public order offence and received a suspended sentence."PlatoSaid said:
Kinder, gentler politics.FrancisUrquhart said:A top Corbynista can be revealed as a convicted criminal who was given a suspended sentence for his role in a violent bank attack. Aaron Bastani, who runs Jeremy Corbyn’s favoured ‘new media’ outlet Novara Media, has had a string of brushes with the law.
http://order-order.com/2016/09/19/top-corbynista-convicted-role-bank-attack/
Guy is formally the organizer of UK UnCut protests. I am sure I read somewhere that he had been invited onto Question Time as well.
I see the authorities really took him to town on his criminal activities....a bit like Double Barrel Lives Matter poshos last week.0 -
She is storing up a lot of trouble for herself.AlastairMeeks said:Britannia waived, Theresa rules:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-royal-yacht-britannia-boris-johnson-brexit_uk_57dfc6dee4b0d584f7f1c7a9?31ebsl2g3cd8qto6r
She's doing an awful lot of overruling at present.
I'm on both Boris and Osborne as PM after the next GE at 50/1 and 200/1 respectively at the moment and am happy with both positions.0 -
I disagree. He would still have gained the required number of nominations, but he would not have found himself in a position where he was the only one of the four candidates to vote against the Welfare proposals. That is what generated all the momentum for him , and made it possible to accuse the other three candidates of being 'Torylite' as a result of going along with Harman as Shadow Cabinet members. With hindsight Cooper and Burnham ought to have stood down from the Shadow Cabinet for the campaign and so freed themselves up to oppose Harman's line. Last year Corbyn was able to say 'I am the only candidate prepared to take on the Tories!'. Harman has to carry the can for that.HYUFD said:
The likes of Field and Khan would certainly still have nominated him and he would still have won the membership easilyjustin124 said:
Indeed - but the point is that he would not have won! Without Harman's poor judgement he would have done no better than a fairly distant third behind Burnham /Cooper.HYUFD said:
Corbyn was going to run anywayjustin124 said:A pivotal moment. Had Harman not been elected Deputy Leader she would not have been Acting Leader in July 2015, and Labour would have avoided her disastrous decision to abstain on Osborne's Welfare proposals as set out in his July Budget. Without that Corbyn would not have been propelled into the Leadership by the outrage that stemmed from that decision.
0 -
Trudeau can do no wrong in some circles. I guess with Obama spending all his time on the golf course, they need a new god to worship.Casino_Royale said:
Actually, now I think about it, that's a remarkably partisan article - even by Gavin Hewitt's standards.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice Canada has become the new Sweden in some circles...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37406857
Perhaps he wants a job with Trudeau?0 -
'Remember June 2007' - Yup, I de-lurked as the expression goes. Blimey how the time flies…0
-
HYUFD said:
Indeed - but not in Autumn 1988 the equivalent point of that Parliament!justin124 said:
Thatcher had a post general election poll bounce but by 1990 Kinnock was on over 50% in the polls and only Thatcher's downfall and replacement by Major stopped him becoming PM. Get back to me when Corbyn is polling that high!HYUFD said:
That does not explain his poor performance for two years following the 1987 election.justin124 said:
Kinnock was of course left with the worst ever Labour performance in 1983 and a party rife with Militant to clean up. Even Miliband left Corbyn a better legacy than Foot did and Corbyn seems determined to take Labour back to Foot levelsMarkHopkins said:
I don't have high expectations of Corbyn outperforming during an election campaign, but I am also far from convinced that May will shine in that environment - a view reinforced by last week's PMQs. If we look back at elections since World War 2 most campaigns have favoured the Opposition rather than the incumbent - the exceptions being 2015 - 1992 - 1979 - and 1951.justin124 said:HurstLlama said:
I am no fan at all of Corbyn , but it may be worth reminding Kinnock - in view of his Panorama comments - of his own electoral record. In 1987 he lost to the Tories by 11.8% and five years later he was defeated by 7.6%. Last week Mori and YouGov had Labour trailing by 6% and 7% respectively - both a bit better than his own acievement!rottenborough said:
Mr. Borough, how would you reconcile your views with those who point out that Labour polling is not actually that bad?Sandpit said:Pulpstar said:MaxPB said:Richard_Nabavi said:
!AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.
In a sense it might not matter, as the alternative is social democratic Labour and social democracy is in massive retreat all over Europe, so perhaps a party led by Yvette or Ed Balls or Jarvis would still lose badly.
You cannot compare an opinion poll with a GE. Labour under Corbyn will be slaughtered at an actual election.
If even on the basis of polls, however, Kinnock is not well placed to comment. At the same stage of the 1987 Parliament - late October 1988 - the polls were giving the Tories a lead of between 9 and 11.5%.0 -
So not a poll of leavers, then, and what you said initially remains simply not true.HYUFD said:
The August polling on top political issues which was a thread only a few weeks ago. Immigration was the top issue in itIshmael_X said:
Those questioned by Ashcroft were expressly offered immigration as a "main reason"; 33% chose it, against 49% who chose decision making. What do you mean "immigration remains the top political issue", and how do you know?HYUFD said:
The two are interlinked and immigration remains the top political issueIshmael_X said:
Not true: the principle that decisions about the uk should be taken in the uk was the most often given reason for voting leave - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/HYUFD said:
Not for most Leavers, for them the most important thing was to cut immigrationJonathanD said:
Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.MTimT said:
For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.MaxPB said:
Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.Scott_P said:
Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.Casino_Royale said:It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
What would stop them following suit?
Border control came second.
And anyway he said *economic success".0 -
On Trots Tots, some more funnies...
Teletubbies. After repeatedly missing annual quotas for production of Tubby Custard, the heavy industry of Teletubbyland must become more efficient in order to deliver the latest five-year plan. To that end, Tinky Winky has been shot and replaced by a surly but dedicated machinist named Pavel.
In the Night Garden… The Night Garden has come under threat from ruthless developers, who plan a new airport runway and several thousand unaffordable executive homes. Iggle Piggle and three of the Wottingers were recently arrested after breaking into the Pinky Ponk’s hangar and gluing themselves to its propeller, under the brand of Black Lives Matter UK.
http://www.conservativehome.com/leftwatch/2016/09/eight-childrens-television-programmes-for-the-enjoyment-and-enlightenment-of-momentum-kids.html0 -
Thurrock and the replacement for Thanet South would be the likeliest. Probably too, in all likelihood, Dover, Castle Point, and Boston.Paristonda said:Labour finally coming round to ending free movement?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/19/labour-urged-to-make-immigration-controls-a-key-brexit-demand
Fear of UKIP in Labour seats.
How many Tory seats would be in danger from UKIP if there was a 'betrayal' over immigration? May be a better bet for the tories to go soft brexit, induce a betrayal, which ends up swapping out a bunch of labour seats for UKIP ones, with minimal damage to themselves.
This also helps put some clear yellow water between the Lib Dems and Labour. LDs for full EEA keeping FM and single market, Labour against it.0 -
Michael Deacon
Revealing interview with the awful current president of the National Union of Students. https://t.co/SpR2ggTkgt https://t.co/xYLp7sQngu0 -
Agree that resignations of the whip are more likely over time, but if any defections were to take place, they'd take place over Conference season - nothing like a defector at Conference for a massive cheer from the faithful. Two I'm watching are Woodcock and Carswell.wasd said:
I'm not sure why we're expecting defections when just resigning the whip seems more likely. If nothing else 'Labour' > 'Independent Labour' leaves them the opportunity to return to a party that's been home for most of their adult life and that seem to have a fierce love for. 'Labour' > 'Con|LD|Nats' pretty much rules that out.Sandpit said:
I don't see how the likes of John Woodcock and Dan Jarvis can remain in the PLP. We need a market up on the number of Conference season defections. 2 or 3 looks plausible, I wonder if the LDs have one lined up in the next couple of days.Pulpstar said:
Smith started that ball rolling - he was the one who proposed shadow cabinet elections !Sandpit said:
Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.MaxPB said:
Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!Richard_Nabavi said:
You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.0 -
Damian Counselling
. @jeremyduns *About A Goy*: Hugh Grant opens a Momentum creche to pick up single mums, accidentally becomes Shadow Minister For Jews.0 -
I daresay that Trudeau is able to cure scrofula too.Casino_Royale said:
Actually, now I think about it, that's a remarkably partisan article - even by Gavin Hewitt's standards.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice Canada has become the new Sweden in some circles...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37406857
Perhaps he wants a job with Trudeau?0 -
Michael Deacon
Over at the mumsnet webchat, a Corbyn supporter calls for a law to ensure leftleaning newspapers in GP waiting rooms https://t.co/1grezHQlG40 -
There's a lot of it about:FrancisUrquhart said:A top Corbynista can be revealed as a convicted criminal who was given a suspended sentence for his role in a violent bank attack. Aaron Bastani, who runs Jeremy Corbyn’s favoured ‘new media’ outlet Novara Media, has had a string of brushes with the law.
http://order-order.com/2016/09/19/top-corbynista-convicted-role-bank-attack/
Guy is formally the organizer of UK UnCut protests. I am sure I read somewhere that he had been invited onto Question Time as well.
"Mr Lovegrove has served two prison sentences - one for wounding with intent in 1996 and one for actual bodily harm in 2000, the Portsmouth News reported.
His past has been the subject of heated rows at Ukip meetings"0 -
She is quite horrendous. A stain on the NUS (which is saying something for one of the worst associations in the UK)PlatoSaid said:Michael Deacon
Revealing interview with the awful current president of the National Union of Students. https://t.co/SpR2ggTkgt https://t.co/xYLp7sQngu0 -
I presume by Left leaning they don't mean the Guardian either, they mean the Morning Star....and Press TV must be on the big screen...PlatoSaid said:Michael Deacon
Over at the mumsnet webchat, a Corbyn supporter calls for a law to ensure leftleaning newspapers in GP waiting rooms https://t.co/1grezHQlG40 -
Agree completely. There's nothing the EU (as an institution) would hate more than a successful and prosperous UK, a decade or two down the line from their leaving the EU.Luckyguy1983 said:
In actual fact, the best policy for the EU (meaning the institutions of the EU) is to do everything in its power to tie the UK into as many EU strictures, projects, and fees as possible. And going alongside that, the 'benefits' of single market access, which as the BOP indicates, work much more in the EU's favour than in the UK's. EU-Max as it were. This will prevent the UK from becoming an embarrassing turbo-capitalist Singapore in the EU's doorstep, and demonstrate that all leaving does is create the much-vaunted 'government by fax'. This is a prize for the EU that is well worth finding a compromise on immigration for.MaxPB said:
His comments on the EU being willing to take economic hardship in order to punish the UK have gone down extremely poorly across the bloc.Casino_Royale said:FPT
On the UK-EU deal I think it will ultimately come down to realpolitik but with all sides being able to save face.
For the EU, that will mean the UK doesn't have the same *level* of unrestricted free access to the single market whilst outside the EU, and less say in its rules.
For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled) a more independent trade policy, and good access for financial services but an obvious new political relationship with the EU.
Once we get past that the size of the UK economy, its importance as a major services centre in Europe, its global trade links, and the need for its cooperation in security and defence across the continent will take over.
It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
Thankfully what it looks like they'll do is throw a tantrum instead, forcing hard Brexit and a Britain that once again chooses 'the open seas'.0 -
"“I don’t know whether it’s necessarily low if we compare it with voter turnout more generally.” After I run through the average turnout for general, mayoral and devolved parliaments, she takes a new tack."
That is absolutely wonderful.0 -
deleted0
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About Britannia:
I wonder which British shipyards have the capability to build a 5,000-tonne+, 400-foot long luxury yacht (if we went for an equivalent)? Appledore? Devonport? Scotsoun / Govan?
Also, if HMY was as successful as was claimed below and elsewhere in bringing in trade, why was that (e.g. association with the royal family, quality etc), and how could we reproduce it?0 -
A Sheffield man born in the late 70's defecting straight to the Tories? Stranger things have happened though not that many.Sandpit said:
Agree that resignations of the whip are more likely over time, but if any defections were to take place, they'd take place over Conference season - nothing like a defector at Conference for a massive cheer from the faithful. Two I'm watching are Woodcock and Carswell.wasd said:
I'm not sure why we're expecting defections when just resigning the whip seems more likely. If nothing else 'Labour' > 'Independent Labour' leaves them the opportunity to return to a party that's been home for most of their adult life and that seem to have a fierce love for. 'Labour' > 'Con|LD|Nats' pretty much rules that out.Sandpit said:
I don't see how the likes of John Woodcock and Dan Jarvis can remain in the PLP. We need a market up on the number of Conference season defections. 2 or 3 looks plausible, I wonder if the LDs have one lined up in the next couple of days.Pulpstar said:
Smith started that ball rolling - he was the one who proposed shadow cabinet elections !Sandpit said:
Not to mention the various proposals for rule changes at Conference this year and next - Corbyn's ideas for the membership to decide the Shadow Cabinet members and key policies only serve to further undermine the Parliamentary Labour Party.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn will be an even heavier favourite next time round. The membership is trending towards him, and dispirited "Saving Labour" members will not renew their subs.MaxPB said:
Which means that is exactly what they are going to do!Richard_Nabavi said:
You'd have to be particularly dense, even by the standard of Labour plotters, to want to propose Owen Smith as your candidate a second time.AlastairMeeks said:If Owen Smith loses, the defeat will be blamed by the non-Corbynites on him. Like @Pulpstar, I think he has only this shot at the prize.
In addition I think McNicol will be gone as chair of the NEC where Corbyn will further cement control.
There are also better candidates available, Kinnock (And almost anyone else) springs to mind.0 -
Which we won't get if Brexit means staying in the EU without a vote.JonathanD said:
Surely for BREXIT to be an economic success, the UK needs to have a higher trend growth after leaving than before, plus a higher trend growth than Germany.MTimT said:
For Brexit to be both an economic and political success, we need to be free from automatic application of EU regulations on our industry, and we need the ability to negotiate our own trade deals. Accepting 'EU trade rules unilaterally' has to be a non-starter. Unless you mean something else. Obviously, goods sold into the EU have to meet EU standards, and for any type of FTA we'd assume that NTBs would not be allowed.MaxPB said:
Both sides would spin it as a victory. The EU will say the UK is not in the single market now, and must accept EU trade rules unilaterally in order to sell into the bloc. The UK will say we're out of the EU and able to trade with them without tariffs which ensures out industries are safe and we've got restrictions on unskilled migration and access to welfare.Scott_P said:
Except some will argue it's not in "the interests of the major EU member states" for Brexit to be seen as a success.Casino_Royale said:It's possible that the likes of Juncker will try to push for a like it or lump it, everything-or-nothing, deal but I think he'd be sacrificed ahead of the interests of the major EU member states.
What would stop them following suit?
Not sure why it would require both higher trend growth than before and higher than Germany. And your measures assess success merely in aggregate economic terms. There are other measures of success in life.0 -
WRT the NUS girl - the ending, where she just blankly repeats the same lines is frustrating and I'm only reading the damned thing.
See you in Birmingham Ladywood in 2025, I guess.0 -
Grammar schools may be popular with kipper-leaning Tory activists but I'd need some convincing they'd swing a single UKIP voter back to the Conservatives. Most people don't have school-aged children and most of the ones that do probably want their local school to improve rather than yet another upheaval. Most voters old enough to remember grammar schools will themselves have gone to secondary moderns.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I suspect this is what the grammar school policy is about (along with similar policies not yet unveiled).HYUFD said:
Plenty of Tory marginals in Essex and Kent and the East Midlands and South West where UKIP are a threat tooParistonda said:Labour finally coming round to ending free movement?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/19/labour-urged-to-make-immigration-controls-a-key-brexit-demand
Fear of UKIP in Labour seats.
How many Tory seats would be in danger from UKIP if there was a 'betrayal' over immigration? May be a better bet for the tories to go soft brexit, induce a betrayal, which ends up swapping out a bunch of labour seats for UKIP ones, with minimal damage to themselves.
This also helps put some clear yellow water between the Lib Dems and Labour. LDs for full EEA keeping FM and single market, Labour against it.
Throwing enough red meat to kipper inclined voters that May will still get a decent majority in 2020 after a soft brexit with us still in EEA/EFTA and largely following EEA/EFTA immigration rules0 -
I get the feeling she's quite enjoying publicly shooting down her cabinet ministers. She's done it with several of them now. A power play to show who's boss. Same reason Osborne's sacking was so public.AlastairMeeks said:Britannia waived, Theresa rules:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-royal-yacht-britannia-boris-johnson-brexit_uk_57dfc6dee4b0d584f7f1c7a9?31ebsl2g3cd8qto6r
She's doing an awful lot of overruling at present.0 -
“As far I’m concerned, I’m just a journalist who happens to see the challenge to Corbyn exactly in the same terms as I saw the Miners’ Strike... The question was, on day one, which side are you on?”
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/paul-mason-fleet-streets-rebel-with-a-cause-on-jeremy-corbyn-and-the-media_uk_57daa890e4b0d584f7f03a7b0 -
Yeah buy poshos always get away with crime, what's new?FrancisUrquhart said:
"confirmed he was convicted of a public order offence and received a suspended sentence."PlatoSaid said:
Kinder, gentler politics.FrancisUrquhart said:A top Corbynista can be revealed as a convicted criminal who was given a suspended sentence for his role in a violent bank attack. Aaron Bastani, who runs Jeremy Corbyn’s favoured ‘new media’ outlet Novara Media, has had a string of brushes with the law.
http://order-order.com/2016/09/19/top-corbynista-convicted-role-bank-attack/
Guy is formally the organizer of UK UnCut protests. I am sure I read somewhere that he had been invited onto Question Time as well.
I see the authorities really took him to town on his criminal activities....a bit like Double Barrel Lives Matter poshos last week.0 -
Corbyn will move her straight to the Lords - in charge of re-educating the masses.BannedInParis said:WRT the NUS girl - the ending, where she just blankly repeats the same lines is frustrating and I'm only reading the damned thing.
See you in Birmingham Ladywood in 2025, I guess.0 -
Casino_Royale said:
It's normally around this time in the US electoral cycle that lots of stories start to appear in the press about US citizens wanting to mass emigrate to Canada.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice Canada has become the new Sweden in some circles...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37406857
Only fair, given that every successful Canadian broadcaster and entertainer ends up in the US.0 -
That Corbyn apptd a single peer - who happened to be Shami is most impressive chutzpahoxfordsimon said:
Corbyn will move her straight to the Lords - in charge of re-educating the masses.BannedInParis said:WRT the NUS girl - the ending, where she just blankly repeats the same lines is frustrating and I'm only reading the damned thing.
See you in Birmingham Ladywood in 2025, I guess.
0 -
For the Tykes among us - some people are never satisfied. This lady moved to the Dales and expects the amenities of London.
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/who-d-live-in-the-sexist-yorkshire-dales-there-s-not-even-a-waitrose-1-81326910 -
"After studying a degree in culture studies she read an MA in postcolonial theory at the University of Birmingham,"oxfordsimon said:
She is quite horrendous. A stain on the NUS (which is saying something for one of the worst associations in the UK)PlatoSaid said:Michael Deacon
Revealing interview with the awful current president of the National Union of Students. https://t.co/SpR2ggTkgt https://t.co/xYLp7sQngu
Sigh......
"Now a woman sitting at what is known as the liberation desk in the office, who works on campaigns for LGBT, black, female and disabled students, gets involved. What Greer thinks she means is not the point, she says; the trans community consider her a “fascist”, the NUS respects their view, ergo Greer is a fascist."
They people are just absolutely f##king bonkers.
0 -
You can only get an NI number if in possession of a written job offer of more than £40k. At the one year mark, if you're still in possession of that job (or another paying £40k+), the NI number is extended for a further period. After five years, assuming you've had a £40k+ job for 85% of the time, it's made permanent.HurstLlama said:
I certainly don't expect you or anyone on here to Justify HMG policy, i am just interested in exploring some ideas that people put forward.Casino_Royale said:
It's not for me to justify HMG policy but the intent and direction of it is clear to me from Hammond's statement on free movement of financial workers from the EU a couple of weeks ago:HurstLlama said:@Casino_Royale
"For the UK, it will mean more control of free movement of low skilled Labour (I think the Government will discount high skilled)"
Sorry, Mr. Royale, could you please explain that one too us. What does discount mean in this context? How is the Border Force to know who is high skilled and who is low skilled unless there is some pre-arrival method of checking (aka visas or work permits).
As ever with these discussions the tricky bit is how does the UK quickly and efficiently remove from its shores those that are in breach of their terms of entry? Unless such people as are deemed undesirable can be thrown out then there is not much point in setting up systems to control who comes in. That would seem to me to require the UK to withdraw from the jurisdiction of the ECtHR.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/08/european-bankers-will-be-exempt-from-migration-curbs-after-brexi/
I think there may be a salary test, or some form of income bond. Excluding, say, free movement from those on under £40k a year but allowing it for those above.
If a person earning more than £x p.a. is to be given easier access to the UK then there has to be a mechanism for determining that the person has a solid job offer that includes a salary of £x+ befor he he is allowed in. That sounds a lot like a visa/work permit system to me and not a "discounted" system of free movement.
Doesn't seem to be that complicated.0 -
UkUncut.
Well, that's spelt wrong for a start.0 -
I think this is common sense. Brexit is not going to be a comfortable experience. The government will be very exposed when a company who has been doing business here for decades pulls out or when they have to make difficult spending choices on a reduced taxbase. A half built royal yacht on which to sign all the wonderful Brexit deals that aren't materialising would be hubris on a comic scale, when you are struggling for answers on the most basic questions.Paristonda said:
I get the feeling she's quite enjoying publicly shooting down her cabinet ministers. She's done it with several of them now. A power play to show who's boss. Same reason Osborne's sacking was so public.AlastairMeeks said:Britannia waived, Theresa rules:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-royal-yacht-britannia-boris-johnson-brexit_uk_57dfc6dee4b0d584f7f1c7a9?31ebsl2g3cd8qto6r
She's doing an awful lot of overruling at present.0 -
This is policing that's trusting
NBC Nightly News
MORE: State police: Ahmad Khan Rahami is believed to be operating 2003 blue Honda Civic with NJ registration D63EYB. https://t.co/GVsCVGrcwf0 -
I have no doubt we could build another, but it's the politics that matter as much as the economics here.JosiasJessop said:About Britannia:
I wonder which British shipyards have the capability to build a 5,000-tonne+, 400-foot long luxury yacht (if we went for an equivalent)? Appledore? Devonport? Scotsoun / Govan?
Also, if HMY was as successful as was claimed below and elsewhere in bringing in trade, why was that (e.g. association with the royal family, quality etc), and how could we reproduce it?0 -
Send it to the Clyde......if nothing else for the fun of watching Sturgeon chew wasps while it was built.JosiasJessop said:About Britannia:
I wonder which British shipyards have the capability to build a 5,000-tonne+, 400-foot long luxury yacht (if we went for an equivalent)? Appledore? Devonport? Scotsoun / Govan?
Also, if HMY was as successful as was claimed below and elsewhere in bringing in trade, why was that (e.g. association with the royal family, quality etc), and how could we reproduce it?
Boris' suggestion of recommissioning the 60 year old ship were completely impractical.....0 -
One can just imagine the level of media luvvy love in if Trudeau did any sort of deal with a Sturgeon led independent Scotland.FrancisUrquhart said:
Trudeau can do no wrong in some circles. I guess with Obama spending all his time on the golf course, they need a new god to worship.Casino_Royale said:
Actually, now I think about it, that's a remarkably partisan article - even by Gavin Hewitt's standards.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice Canada has become the new Sweden in some circles...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37406857
Perhaps he wants a job with Trudeau?0 -
Remember the Tommy Robinson pub story?
Judge "evidence is vague & cagey & not genuine" case dismissed0 -
Latest twitter storm on Hillary's health, re ambulance in her motorcade:
http://www.ksdk.com/news/politics/is-it-normal-for-clinton-to-have-an-ambulance/319630667
Apparently, it's standard procedure for those with a Secret Service detail, but not for those without, which is why Trump has no ambulance in his motorcade.
Be interesting to see if former Presidents, such as Bill, who do have Secret Service details, have ambulances in their motorcades.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. Royale, tented trousers and screams of "Progressive" would abound 0 -
What was he allegedly done this time?PlatoSaid said:Remember the Tommy Robinson pub story?
Judge "evidence is vague & cagey & not genuine" case dismissed0 -
Sahil Kapur
.@VP Joe Biden rules out serving in a @HillaryClinton White House. https://t.co/mHctS2jhe8 (via @dylanlscott)0 -
The only exception I can think of is Anne Murray. When we lived in Toronto in the late 70s she used to shop at the same supermarket we did. She drove a battered blue Volvo.MTimT said:Casino_Royale said:
It's normally around this time in the US electoral cycle that lots of stories start to appear in the press about US citizens wanting to mass emigrate to Canada.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice Canada has become the new Sweden in some circles...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37406857
Only fair, given that every successful Canadian broadcaster and entertainer ends up in the US.
I wish they'd take Justin Bieber back.0 -
A few years ago she moved to Devon and got 5 years of articles out of the lack of amenities from the move. The one I remember was that she couldn't sleep because it was "too quiet".Tim_B said:For the Tykes among us - some people are never satisfied. This lady moved to the Dales and expects the amenities of London.
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/who-d-live-in-the-sexist-yorkshire-dales-there-s-not-even-a-waitrose-1-8132691
Dreadful journalist, even by the standards of the Daily Mail0 -
Being in a pub, on Sunday with his kids was going to cause public disorder.FrancisUrquhart said:
What was he allegedly done this time?PlatoSaid said:Remember the Tommy Robinson pub story?
Judge "evidence is vague & cagey & not genuine" case dismissed
It's laughable and sinister from Beds Police.0 -
Allegedly got drunk in a pub in Cambridge:FrancisUrquhart said:
What was he allegedly done this time?PlatoSaid said:Remember the Tommy Robinson pub story?
Judge "evidence is vague & cagey & not genuine" case dismissed
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/ex-edl-leader-tommy-robinson-s-cambridge-pub-incident-claims-police-boss-defends-officers/story-29676276-detail/story.html
If that's the same case.0 -
May needs to remember she isn't Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher got away with it because she had won the respect (even if begruding) from the vast majority of her parliamentary party, and had banked some real results.Paristonda said:
I get the feeling she's quite enjoying publicly shooting down her cabinet ministers. She's done it with several of them now. A power play to show who's boss. Same reason Osborne's sacking was so public.AlastairMeeks said:Britannia waived, Theresa rules:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-royal-yacht-britannia-boris-johnson-brexit_uk_57dfc6dee4b0d584f7f1c7a9?31ebsl2g3cd8qto6r
She's doing an awful lot of overruling at present.
Theresa has not. Yet.
And, even then, Theresa would do well to note that Maggie's behaviour did eventually bring her down.
People don't like to be publicly humiliated, particularly ambitious politicians.0 -
As an official candidate, Trump also has Secret Service protection.MTimT said:Latest twitter storm on Hillary's health, re ambulance in her motorcade:
http://www.ksdk.com/news/politics/is-it-normal-for-clinton-to-have-an-ambulance/319630667
Apparently, it's standard procedure for those with a Secret Service detail, but not for those without, which is why Trump has no ambulance in his motorcade.
Be interesting to see if former Presidents, such as Bill, who do have Secret Service details, have ambulances in their motorcades.
Bill probably has an RV in his motorcades, in case he gets lucky.0
