politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is George Osborne the answer to Brexit?
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@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO0
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Thought the way Mahrez, Vardy and Slumani were linking up boded well for another good season. Vardy's backheel flicks were a joy.foxinsoxuk said:
Leicester are looking to be the team they were last season. Transfer window uncertainty is over and the post victory hangover has cleared. Two 3 nil victories in a row is quite a confidence booster.
It will be our (really quite decent) reserve in action on Tuesday in the League cup, though Chelsea are likely to field a lot of first teamers after Fridays poor performance. They are not using Kante well.
Islam Slimani is a fans favourite already. A quicker, younger Ibrahamovic style player who looked as if he had played with Vardy for years (he has with Mahrez). There is even a half serious discussion on the fans site as to whether "Allah Akbhar Slimani" that the Algerians sing should be adopted*!
Burnley were ok first half when they parked the bus, but after they conceded they were clueless. It is going to be a long season for them.
* Leicester's first goal was very multifaith: a Christian (Fuchs) cross and an Islam (Slimani) header.0 -
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
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Can anyone think of another CotE who delivered Budgets which disintegrated in the way Osborne's of 2012 and 2016 did ?TCPoliticalBetting said:
Osborne delivered at least two omnishambles budgets yet Cameron left him in the job.Ishmael_X said:It is not obvious to me that Osborne is a master strategist. A majority in 2010 was the tories' to lose and they lost it. The omnishambles budget was a monumental own goal (I suppose you could argue that it was a fiscal and economic cockup rather than a strategic one). What were his strategic successes?
There have been previous Budgets which were later shown to be economic mistakes and previous Budgets which were later shown to be political mistakes.
But I can't remember any before Osborne's where they disintegrated within days.
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Some PB Tories seem to be going wobbly at the first whiff of gunsmoke. Osborne of all creatures I ask you. The man is neither use nor ornament.GIN1138 said:I think Theresa May is doing OK personally.
She'll grow into the role but she's had a reasonable start. Hinkley Point wasn't great but other than that she's been good.
She certainly doesn't need to start hitting the panic button and bringing back the like's of Osborne at this stage.
Added to which, he is virulently opposed to Brexit, and would no doubt be far more on the side of the EU than he is of the UK.0 -
George Osborne would be a lunatic if, having become the hate figure of demented Leavers during the referendum campaign, he alllowed them to refresh their hatred of him by carrying the can for the almost inevitable failure of Brexit negotiations (at least, through the prism through which said demented Leavers would view it). This has to be the Leavers' party and they have to fail on their own terms.Casino_Royale said:
Whether you agree with the vote being held in the first place, or not, or the verdict, the referendum was lost by Remain fair and square, despite having every advantage. No matter which side ministers or MPs campaigned on the attention of all should now be focussed on forming the best Government possible to take the country forwards.AlastairMeeks said:
You willed the impoverishment of the quality of government in pursuit of an oddball obsession. Having achieved the second, you now repent of the first. You can't have your cake and eat it.Casino_Royale said:
Politics can get personal. But it's in the nature of politics that politicians do personal reconciliations when they need to.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May, it seems, couldn't resist twisting the knife as she dealt the blow. She seems to be a remarkably poor people manager. With a majority of 12, she can't afford to be alienating influential and able MPs, even if she doesn't trust them as far as she could throw them.
As @Casino_Royale notes, the government is weaker without George Osborne. One of the many ill effects of the Leave vote was to weaken the ability of the government considerably. But since Leavers are tired of experts, that is no doubt not a concern that troubles the winners.
I had very few good words to say about Osborne at the end of June. I am now open minded about him.
But he has to meet us Brexiters in the middle.
Nick Boles is a good model for Osborne to follow in this regard.
Astonishingly, despite the prepublicity, they are terrified of taking control.0 -
But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.Scott_P said:
There is more than one version of "success"Casino_Royale said:Brexit is Osborne's future, just as it is for all of the rest of us.
If he ever wants to be leader he has to play his part in shaping it. Hiding in the shadows before emerging with a smile to say 'told you so' might be good for the pundit circuit, or a single-issue backbencher, but not for an ambitious politician looking to the future. He can't be the anti Bill Cash.
None of the issues that underlay the vote, or, indeed, the result of the vote itself, are going to go away. He has to demonstrate that he now understands this and will engage with it to make it a success.
To the Leadbangers, Hard Brexit followed by penury is success.
To others, rescuing the country from the smoking ruins of Hard Brexit would be success
He has to shape it, and own it.0 -
The "oddball obsession" that delivered the highest turnout for 24 years.CarlottaVance said:
The "oddball obsession" that just carried the referendum? That one?AlastairMeeks said:
You willed the impoverishment of the quality of government in pursuit of an oddball obsession. Having achieved the second, you now repent of the first. You can't have your cake and eat it.Casino_Royale said:
Politics can get personal. But it's in the nature of politics that politicians do personal reconciliations when they need to.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May, it seems, couldn't resist twisting the knife as she dealt the blow. She seems to be a remarkably poor people manager. With a majority of 12, she can't afford to be alienating influential and able MPs, even if she doesn't trust them as far as she could throw them.
As @Casino_Royale notes, the government is weaker without George Osborne. One of the many ill effects of the Leave vote was to weaken the ability of the government considerably. But since Leavers are tired of experts, that is no doubt not a concern that troubles the winners.
I had very few good words to say about Osborne at the end of June. I am now open minded about him.
But he has to meet us Brexiters in the middle.0 -
if Tory voters from 2015 become disillusioned, they'll switch to UKIP, not to Corbyn's Labour.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think that follows. If the alternative is worse, in this case, Corbyn's Labour, then the Tories will be re-elected.IanB2 said:
If tyson's scenario comes to pass - and it isn't impossible - it won't be another Tory to whom people turn. The Tory party as a whole is tied to the whole referendum/exit escapade and if it fails, they all go down with it.Casino_Royale said:
Brexit is Osborne's future, just as it is for all of the rest of us.tyson said:Haha Casino....wishful thinking indeed about Osbo becoming the Brexit man.
You are right Osbo is a strategist, but he is an opportunist and young. It is much more likely that he will cheer on the sidelines as the full horror of Brexit comes to pass, and, as the Tory party leadership implodes under a mixture of incompetence, ego, indecision, inability to deal with the unfolding crisis that are looming ahead.
Osbo will pick up the pieces then and be vindicated that he was right all along rather than having to take any crap from the likes of you and your rightwing ideological comrades. I would suggest Churchill is a better example for Osbo to draw on.
If he ever wants to be leader he has to play his part in shaping it. Hiding in the shadows before emerging with a smile to say 'told you so' might be good for the pundit circuit, or a single-issue backbencher, but not for an ambitious politician looking to the future. He can't be the anti Bill Cash.
None of the issues that underlay the vote, or, indeed, the result of the vote itself, are going to go away. He has to demonstrate that he now understands this and will engage with it to make it a success.0 -
Indeed.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Osborne delivered at least two omnishambles budgets yet Cameron left him in the job.Ishmael_X said:It is not obvious to me that Osborne is a master strategist. A majority in 2010 was the tories' to lose and they lost it. The omnishambles budget was a monumental own goal (I suppose you could argue that it was a fiscal and economic cockup rather than a strategic one). What were his strategic successes?
Though for me his last budget was the only real error - apart from constant tinkering of course - when IDS is schooling you in both politics and presentation, you're not a master strategist.0 -
It was rather appropriate that Osborne was with Mandelson on an oligarch's yacht as the economy fell into recession in 2008.Luckyguy1983 said:Being a master strategist, I suspect, is a bit like marketing - if people can see you running toward them with a big sign saying 'I'M A MASTER STRATEGIST' - you aren't one. Strategy depends upon subtlety - knowing when to hold back and when to deal the knockout blow. From everything we know about Osborne, he didn't do this. He was actually rather rude to everyone and made sure they knew they were his social inferiors.
In this regard he really is the heir to Mandelson, another 'master strategist'. Both exceedingly enamoured of money, influence, and international institutions, both enjoyed slithering around doing their best impression of Darth Vader, but when it came down to it, all either of them were doing was playing silly, ineffectual parlour games. In doing that, Osborne also utterly neglected his duty as Chancellor to put Britain's economy on a secure footing.
There is simply no question in 2016 to which Osborne is the answer. He's had it, and good riddance.
Scheming rather that doing his job.
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The worse that will happen for May is that she loses some votes to UKIP as Blair did to the LDs in 2005 but he still won anyway and I think the grammar schools policy, her emphasis on 'Brexit means Brexit' and 'control of our borders' shows she recognises she needs to do more to reassure such voters than Cameron didSean_F said:
if Tory voters from 2015 become disillusioned, they'll switch to UKIP, not to Corbyn's Labour.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think that follows. If the alternative is worse, in this case, Corbyn's Labour, then the Tories will be re-elected.IanB2 said:
If tyson's scenario comes to pass - and it isn't impossible - it won't be another Tory to whom people turn. The Tory party as a whole is tied to the whole referendum/exit escapade and if it fails, they all go down with it.Casino_Royale said:
Brexit is Osborne's future, just as it is for all of the rest of us.tyson said:Haha Casino....wishful thinking indeed about Osbo becoming the Brexit man.
You are right Osbo is a strategist, but he is an opportunist and young. It is much more likely that he will cheer on the sidelines as the full horror of Brexit comes to pass, and, as the Tory party leadership implodes under a mixture of incompetence, ego, indecision, inability to deal with the unfolding crisis that are looming ahead.
Osbo will pick up the pieces then and be vindicated that he was right all along rather than having to take any crap from the likes of you and your rightwing ideological comrades. I would suggest Churchill is a better example for Osbo to draw on.
If he ever wants to be leader he has to play his part in shaping it. Hiding in the shadows before emerging with a smile to say 'told you so' might be good for the pundit circuit, or a single-issue backbencher, but not for an ambitious politician looking to the future. He can't be the anti Bill Cash.
None of the issues that underlay the vote, or, indeed, the result of the vote itself, are going to go away. He has to demonstrate that he now understands this and will engage with it to make it a success.0 -
I rather lack sympathy with this view. The government already makes apparently talented individuals very junior ministers, to keep potential critics quiet. I was mainly thinking of Rory Stewart and Jesse Norman.DavidL said:Been saying this for a while. There is nowhere near enough talent in the government to allow George to go to waste. If we were cruising along in normal times it may be that his undoubted negatives would outweigh this but these are not normal times. May needs all the help she get.
I'm still concerned that cutting the H of C from 650 to 600 will further weaken Parliament; i.e., the payroll vote will continue unchanged in size.0 -
Read the post immediately above yours.Casino_Royale said:But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.
He has to shape it, and own it.
If it's a failure, as Osborne predicted and probably expects, he wants no part on owning it.
He can then rebuild success once the strutting Brexiteers have been humiliated.0 -
@jessicaelgot: Labour source says they pitched Corbyn for Peston's show when they heard Smith was being lined up, knowing their rival would be bumped.0
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All?AlastairMeeks said:This week all the newspapers have decided that Theresa May is like Gordon Brown. Only a week late...
Links?
Here's the Observer for starters..
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/17/theresa-may-prime-minister-prepared-to-risk-it-all0 -
In 2008 he was in opposition, scheming is a big part of the job.another_richard said:
It was rather appropriate that Osborne was with Mandelson on an oligarch's yacht as the economy fell into recession in 2008.Luckyguy1983 said:Being a master strategist, I suspect, is a bit like marketing - if people can see you running toward them with a big sign saying 'I'M A MASTER STRATEGIST' - you aren't one. Strategy depends upon subtlety - knowing when to hold back and when to deal the knockout blow. From everything we know about Osborne, he didn't do this. He was actually rather rude to everyone and made sure they knew they were his social inferiors.
In this regard he really is the heir to Mandelson, another 'master strategist'. Both exceedingly enamoured of money, influence, and international institutions, both enjoyed slithering around doing their best impression of Darth Vader, but when it came down to it, all either of them were doing was playing silly, ineffectual parlour games. In doing that, Osborne also utterly neglected his duty as Chancellor to put Britain's economy on a secure footing.
There is simply no question in 2016 to which Osborne is the answer. He's had it, and good riddance.
Scheming rather that doing his job.0 -
You are having a laugh right? The real oddball obsession is European Federalism. The only reason Remain got as much as 48% is by terrifying people. Euroscepticism has always had a reasonably big following, and Leave won over enough undecideds to make it across the line.AlastairMeeks said:
You willed the impoverishment of the quality of government in pursuit of an oddball obsession. Having achieved the second, you now repent of the first. You can't have your cake and eat it.Casino_Royale said:
Politics can get personal. But it's in the nature of politics that politicians do personal reconciliations when they need to.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May, it seems, couldn't resist twisting the knife as she dealt the blow. She seems to be a remarkably poor people manager. With a majority of 12, she can't afford to be alienating influential and able MPs, even if she doesn't trust them as far as she could throw them.
As @Casino_Royale notes, the government is weaker without George Osborne. One of the many ill effects of the Leave vote was to weaken the ability of the government considerably. But since Leavers are tired of experts, that is no doubt not a concern that troubles the winners.
I had very few good words to say about Osborne at the end of June. I am now open minded about him.
But he has to meet us Brexiters in the middle.
No-one willed the impoverishment of the quality of government. They willed us to leave the EU. In terms of quality of government Cameron is hardly a great loss.0 -
Osborne won't be rewarded for gloating by the Tory party.Scott_P said:
Read the post immediately above yours.Casino_Royale said:But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.
He has to shape it, and own it.
If it's a failure, as Osborne predicted and probably expects, he wants no part on owning it.
He can then rebuild success once the strutting Brexiteers have been humiliated.0 -
If it's a success?Scott_P said:
Read the post immediately above yours.Casino_Royale said:But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.
He has to shape it, and own it.
If it's a failure, as Osborne predicted and probably expects, he wants no part on owning it.
He can then rebuild success once the strutting Brexiteers have been humiliated.0 -
Not really much else left to say is there...Luckyguy1983 said:Being a master strategist, I suspect, is a bit like marketing - if people can see you running toward them with a big sign saying 'I'M A MASTER STRATEGIST' - you aren't one. Strategy depends upon subtlety - knowing when to hold back and when to deal the knockout blow. From everything we know about Osborne, he didn't do this. He was actually rather rude to everyone and made sure they knew they were his social inferiors.
In this regard he really is the heir to Mandelson, another 'master strategist'. Both exceedingly enamoured of money, influence, and international institutions, both enjoyed slithering around doing their best impression of Darth Vader, but when it came down to it, all either of them were doing was playing silly, ineffectual parlour games. In doing that, Osborne also utterly neglected his duty as Chancellor to put Britain's economy on a secure footing.
There is simply no question in 2016 to which Osborne is the answer. He's had it, and good riddance.0 -
As Leader of the Opposition?Scott_P said:Casino_Royale said:But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.
He has to shape it, and own it.
He can then rebuild success once the strutting Brexiteers have been humiliated.0 -
Indeed and Sun readers are far closer to Mail readers than they are to Guardian readersanother_richard said:
The Conservative route to power always starts with reassuring Mail readers followed by winning over Sun readers.HYUFD said:
The key is Cameron spent his first year trying to win over the Guardian, May has focused on the Mail. Which is why I expect May to outlast Dave as PM. May knows that to win an election you need to reassure your base first then reach out (plus the Mail's readership is more than that of the Guardian and Times combined), Cameron started off trying to reassure people who would never vote for him anyway thus he failed to win a majority initially in 2010 and when he really needed his base in and after the EU referendum in particular, the majority deserted himPaul_Bedfordshire said:
She is undoutably going to be marmite in the way that Thatcher was. She is clearly far more right wing in a traditional way than the liberal 'wet' wing of the Tory party and the commontariat realised.CarlottaVance said:
Yes, May has the Mail, Sun and Telegraph on-side - the commentariat less so - we had a vote recently - did the commentariat win that?HYUFD said:
Hitchens has had some praise for May though over grammars. In fact she is the only PM I have ever read him have virtually anything positive to say about ever. He and Oborne despise Blair and Cameron and they reflect a generally much more positive line in the Mail towards the PM than her predecessor (in contrast to the Times)CarlottaVance said:As a guess, I'd say Peter Hitchins is not a fan of David Cameron:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3794780/PETER-HITCHENS-Charmer-Cameron-slippery-slope-disaster.html
- if they had thought a little deeper, her finding the time to attend an Anglican Church every Sunday despite the time pressures of a great office of state was a huge giveaway.
So now they are alighting on every problem she fwces and every error she makes as it gives them hope that she may fall before all is lost - however in reality it is little more than wishful thinking. The unionists and sinn fein abstension gives her a real majority of about 40 and the opposition is heavily fractured and some of them are barred from voting on some issues.
Those who suggest alternate ways are often showing what they think of Mail and/or Sun readers.0 -
Then his career is no more over than it is now. Off to head up the IMF perhaps?Philip_Thompson said:If it's a success?
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I read it, and ignored it.Scott_P said:
Read the post immediately above yours.Casino_Royale said:But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.
He has to shape it, and own it.
If it's a failure, as Osborne predicted and probably expects, he wants no part on owning it.
He can then rebuild success once the strutting Brexiteers have been humiliated.
I have learnt not to engage with Alastair when, sadly, he can't help but revert to a lower state of evolution.
Brexit is bigger than anyone's ego, and those that put their careers before their country in a vain attempt to save their personal reputation will not be rewarded for it.
Big politicians will recognise this.0 -
The problem is that for many Brexiters (though far from all), a leave vote is just the start. They want to turn back the clock totally, as we saw on here yesterday. They feel they are in the ascendancy.felix said:
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
'Leave' for them will mean not just leaving the EU, but a whole raft of regressive policies.0 -
Indeed, May is more reassuring to the Tory basePaul_Bedfordshire said:
One good reason he failed to win a majority in 2010 and only scraped on un 2015 out of fear of the SNP being in official or unofficial?coalition with Labour.HYUFD said:
Yes, I think SamCam may also have had something to do with it, socially their circle was more likely to include Guardian readers I imagine than those who read the MailTCPoliticalBetting said:
To support your view. From early 2001, when he was just a hopeful parliamentary candidate, to spring 2004, by which time he was deputy chairman of his party, David Cameron wrote a series of fortnightly diaries .......in the Guardian.HYUFD said:
The key is Cameron spent his first year trying to win over the Guardian, May has focused on the Mail. Which is why I expect May to outlast Dave as PM. May knows that to win an election you need to reassure your base first then reach out (plus the Mail's readership is more than that of the Guardian and Times combined), Cameron started off trying to reassure people who would never vote for him anyway thus he failed to win a majority initially in 2010 and when he really needed his base in and after the EU referendum in particular, the majority deserted himPaul_Bedfordshire said:
She is undoutably going to be marmite in the way that Thatcher was. She is clearly far more right wing in a traditional way than the liberal 'wet' wing of the Tory party and the commontariat realised.CarlottaVance said:
Yes, May has the Mail, Sun and Telegraph on-side - the commentariat less so - we had a vote recently - did the commentariat win that?HYUFD said:CarlottaVance said:As a guess, I'd say Peter Hitchins is not a fan of David Cameron:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3794780/PETER-HITCHENS-Charmer-Cameron-slippery-slope-disaster.html
- if they had thought a little deeper, her finding the time to attend an Anglican Church every Sunday despite the time pressures of a great office of state was a huge giveaway.
So now they are alighting on every problem she fwces and every error she makes as it gives them hope that she may fall before all is lost - however in reality it is little more than wishful thinking. The unionists and sinn fein abstension gives her a real majority of about 40 and the opposition is heavily fractured and some of them are barred from voting on some issues.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/Columnists/Archive/0,,649666,00.html
I voted kipper in 2015 but will vote Tory in 2020 under May.0 -
Neither Cameron nor Osborne represent any sort of loss of ability whatever. This is silly season stuff.Essexit said:
You are having a laugh right? The real oddball obsession is European Federalism. The only reason Remain got as much as 48% is by terrifying people. Euroscepticism has always had a reasonably big following, and Leave won over enough undecideds to make it across the line.AlastairMeeks said:
You willed the impoverishment of the quality of government in pursuit of an oddball obsession. Having achieved the second, you now repent of the first. You can't have your cake and eat it.Casino_Royale said:
Politics can get personal. But it's in the nature of politics that politicians do personal reconciliations when they need to.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May, it seems, couldn't resist twisting the knife as she dealt the blow. She seems to be a remarkably poor people manager. With a majority of 12, she can't afford to be alienating influential and able MPs, even if she doesn't trust them as far as she could throw them.
As @Casino_Royale notes, the government is weaker without George Osborne. One of the many ill effects of the Leave vote was to weaken the ability of the government considerably. But since Leavers are tired of experts, that is no doubt not a concern that troubles the winners.
I had very few good words to say about Osborne at the end of June. I am now open minded about him.
But he has to meet us Brexiters in the middle.
No-one willed the impoverishment of the quality of government. They willed us to leave the EU. In terms of quality of government Cameron is hardly a great loss.0 -
Probably. Unless Corbyn is still in post, in which case as newly crowned PM...CarlottaVance said:As Leader of the Opposition?
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Osborne lobbied for Lagarde.....do you think May will lobby for Osborne?Scott_P said:
Then his career is no more over than it is now. Off to head up the IMF perhaps?Philip_Thompson said:If it's a success?
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Your entire pitch in this thread header consists of "I don't like or respect George Osborne but he could be convenient to my aims, even though he is diametrically opposed to them, so he jolly well should do as I tell him to". Can you not see that is a little optimistic?Casino_Royale said:
I read it, and ignored it.Scott_P said:
Read the post immediately above yours.Casino_Royale said:But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.
He has to shape it, and own it.
If it's a failure, as Osborne predicted and probably expects, he wants no part on owning it.
He can then rebuild success once the strutting Brexiteers have been humiliated.
I have learnt not to engage with Alastair when, sadly, he can't help but revert to a lower state of evolution.
Brexit is bigger than anyone's ego, and those that put their careers before their country in a vain attempt to save their personal reputation will not be rewarded for it.
Big politicians will recognise this.0 -
Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.0
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There's an awful lot of projection going on here. How do you know that May in 2020 will have performed to your (and the base's) satisfaction?HYUFD said:
Indeed, May is more reassuring to the Tory basePaul_Bedfordshire said:I voted kipper in 2015 but will vote Tory in 2020 under May.
Though if she's against Corbyn she'd probably have to mandate gay marriage for all and disestablish the CofE to lose the base.
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If BREXIT is a disaster it's taking the Tories down with it - that's why it's got to be made to work.Scott_P said:
Probably. Unless Corbyn is still in post, in which case as newly crowned PM...CarlottaVance said:As Leader of the Opposition?
No one is going to elect an "I told you so" PM from a failed government.0 -
If it suits Osborne in his goal of becoming PM he'll do it, if it doesn't he won't. It will be up to Mrs May to reopen the door for him, if she wants him back.AlastairMeeks said:
Your entire pitch in this thread header consists of "I don't like or respect George Osborne but he could be convenient to my aims, even though he is diametrically opposed to them, so he jolly well should do as I tell him to". Can you not see that is a little optimistic?Casino_Royale said:
I read it, and ignored it.Scott_P said:
Read the post immediately above yours.Casino_Royale said:But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.
He has to shape it, and own it.
If it's a failure, as Osborne predicted and probably expects, he wants no part on owning it.
He can then rebuild success once the strutting Brexiteers have been humiliated.
I have learnt not to engage with Alastair when, sadly, he can't help but revert to a lower state of evolution.
Brexit is bigger than anyone's ego, and those that put their careers before their country in a vain attempt to save their personal reputation will not be rewarded for it.
Big politicians will recognise this.0 -
Good Morning, Mr. Jessop, Hope you are continuing to recover.JosiasJessop said:
The problem is that for many Brexiters (though far from all), a leave vote is just the start. They want to turn back the clock totally, as we saw on here yesterday. They feel they are in the ascendancy.felix said:
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
'Leave' for them will mean not just leaving the EU, but a whole raft of regressive policies.
Sorry I must of missed that discussion, there was a piss-take post about returning government to the size it was pre WWI and dismantling the policies of Jenkins et al. What are the "regressive policies" being sought by people who voted to leave the EU.0 -
Actually, the reality is that the large majority of people don't care that much either way. Obsession with Europe, in either direction, has always been a minority feature even within the political bubble. Consequently, at the moment most people are simply waiting to see, and they will make their judgement based on whether the post-Brexit world looks better or worse than what went before.Essexit said:
You are having a laugh right? The real oddball obsession is European Federalism. The only reason Remain got as much as 48% is by terrifying people. Euroscepticism has always had a reasonably big following, and Leave won over enough undecideds to make it across the line.AlastairMeeks said:
You willed the impoverishment of the quality of government in pursuit of an oddball obsession. Having achieved the second, you now repent of the first. You can't have your cake and eat it.Casino_Royale said:
Politics can get personal. But it's in the nature of politics that politicians do personal reconciliations when they need to.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May, it seems, couldn't resist twisting the knife as she dealt the blow. She seems to be a remarkably poor people manager. With a majority of 12, she can't afford to be alienating influential and able MPs, even if she doesn't trust them as far as she could throw them.
As @Casino_Royale notes, the government is weaker without George Osborne. One of the many ill effects of the Leave vote was to weaken the ability of the government considerably. But since Leavers are tired of experts, that is no doubt not a concern that troubles the winners.
I had very few good words to say about Osborne at the end of June. I am now open minded about him.
But he has to meet us Brexiters in the middle.
No-one willed the impoverishment of the quality of government. They willed us to leave the EU. In terms of quality of government Cameron is hardly a great loss.0 -
When you write "my" aims you do mean "the will of the British people" don't you?AlastairMeeks said:
Your entire pitch in this thread header consists of "I don't like or respect George Osborne but he could be convenient to my aims, even though he is diametrically opposed to them, so he jolly well should do as I tell him to". Can you not see that is a little optimistic?Casino_Royale said:
I read it, and ignored it.Scott_P said:
Read the post immediately above yours.Casino_Royale said:But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.
He has to shape it, and own it.
If it's a failure, as Osborne predicted and probably expects, he wants no part on owning it.
He can then rebuild success once the strutting Brexiteers have been humiliated.
I have learnt not to engage with Alastair when, sadly, he can't help but revert to a lower state of evolution.
Brexit is bigger than anyone's ego, and those that put their careers before their country in a vain attempt to save their personal reputation will not be rewarded for it.
Big politicians will recognise this.0 -
Do you think that Brexit will end in failure by 2019?Scott_P said:
Read the post immediately above yours.Casino_Royale said:But being a spectator during the most significant British political event of the 21st Century just isn't an option for a politician as ambitious as Osborne.
He has to shape it, and own it.
If it's a failure, as Osborne predicted and probably expects, he wants no part on owning it.
He can then rebuild success once the strutting Brexiteers have been humiliated.
0 -
If he's being a nuisance and a threat to her leadership then I expect she will. Lagarde got it because Sarkozy wanted her to be ineligible for the PS.CarlottaVance said:
Osborne lobbied for Lagarde.....do you think May will lobby for Osborne?Scott_P said:
Then his career is no more over than it is now. Off to head up the IMF perhaps?Philip_Thompson said:If it's a success?
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Kid's experimenting for their exams? You know - like making a clock bomb.nunu said:
Social experiment gone wrong *its just a prank bro*?old_labour said:
What would you call deliberately setting off an explosive device in the middle of Manhattan?619 said:
because it might not be.old_labour said:Why are they saying it is not an act of terrorism? WTF!
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You apply one PB poster's view to all? Are you serious?JosiasJessop said:
The problem is that for many Brexiters (though far from all), a leave vote is just the start. They want to turn back the clock totally, as we saw on here yesterday. They feel they are in the ascendancy.felix said:
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
'Leave' for them will mean not just leaving the EU, but a whole raft of regressive policies.
0 -
Today yes May is more reassuring to the Tory base.HYUFD said:
Indeed, May is more reassuring to the Tory basePaul_Bedfordshire said:
One good reason he failed to win a majority in 2010 and only scraped on un 2015 out of fear of the SNP being in official or unofficial?coalition with Labour.HYUFD said:
Yes, I think SamCam may also have had something to do with it, socially their circle was more likely to include Guardian readers I imagine than those who read the MailTCPoliticalBetting said:
To support your view. From early 2001, when he was just a hopeful parliamentary candidate, to spring 2004, by which time he was deputy chairman of his party, David Cameron wrote a series of fortnightly diaries .......in the Guardian.HYUFD said:
The key is Cameron spent his first year trying to win over the Guardian, May has focused on the Mail. Which is why I expect May to outlast Dave as PM. May knows that to win an election you need to reassure your base first then reach out (plus the Mail's readership is more than that of the Guardian and Times combined), Cameron started off trying to reassure people who would never vote for him anyway thus he failed to win a majority initially in 2010 and when he really needed his base in and after the EU referendum in particular, the majority deserted himPaul_Bedfordshire said:
She is undoutably going to be marmite in the way that Thatcher was. She is clearly far more right wing in a traditional way than the liberal 'wet' wing of the Tory party and the commontariat realised.CarlottaVance said:
Yes, May has the Mail, Sun and Telegraph on-side - the commentariat less so - we had a vote recently - did the commentariat win that?HYUFD said:CarlottaVance said:As a guess, I'd say Peter Hitchins is not a fan of David Cameron:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3794780/PETER-HITCHENS-Charmer-Cameron-slippery-slope-disaster.html
- if they had thought a little deeper, her finding the time to attend an Anglican Church every Sunday despite the time pressures of a great office of state was a huge giveaway.
So now they are alighting on every problem she fwces and every error she makes as it gives them hope that she may fall before all is lost - however in reality it is little more than wishful thinking. The unionists and sinn fein abstension gives her a real majority of about 40 and the opposition is heavily fractured and some of them are barred from voting on some issues.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/Columnists/Archive/0,,649666,00.html
I voted kipper in 2015 but will vote Tory in 2020 under May.
0 -
Miss Vance, vielleicht.
Look at Labour. If our departure goes ill, the blues will axe May and replace her with someone who gives them a better chance of winning. Labour will continue being led by a unilateralist friend of Hamas.0 -
What policies?JosiasJessop said:
The problem is that for many Brexiters (though far from all), a leave vote is just the start. They want to turn back the clock totally, as we saw on here yesterday. They feel they are in the ascendancy.felix said:
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
'Leave' for them will mean not just leaving the EU, but a whole raft of regressive policies.0 -
You know we haven't done anything yet, right?CarlottaVance said:So far, much less than was predicted....
0 -
Not sure about Jesse Norman but the point about Osborne is that he knows how to run a government, to get the various departments singing off the same hymn sheet and pointing in the same direction. He has been doing this job for the Conservatives since his late 20s.rural_voter said:
I rather lack sympathy with this view. The government already makes apparently talented individuals very junior ministers, to keep potential critics quiet. I was mainly thinking of Rory Stewart and Jesse Norman.DavidL said:Been saying this for a while. There is nowhere near enough talent in the government to allow George to go to waste. If we were cruising along in normal times it may be that his undoubted negatives would outweigh this but these are not normal times. May needs all the help she get.
I'm still concerned that cutting the H of C from 650 to 600 will further weaken Parliament; i.e., the payroll vote will continue unchanged in size.
With Cameron gone there really isn't anyone else with that experience.
Brexit is not a job for Davis' slightly odd department. It needs work from pretty much every department as there are not many areas which will not be affected by the change in legislation, regulation and increased responsibility that will come with independence. This really needs coordination and that is what Osborne knows how to do.0 -
If you read my post, you can see the words "for many" and "though far from all".TCPoliticalBetting said:
You apply one PB poster's view to all? Are you serious?JosiasJessop said:
The problem is that for many Brexiters (though far from all), a leave vote is just the start. They want to turn back the clock totally, as we saw on here yesterday. They feel they are in the ascendancy.felix said:
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
'Leave' for them will mean not just leaving the EU, but a whole raft of regressive policies.
Next.0 -
A good piece from you Casino.
In order to re-invent himself and thereby re-establish credibility both with the mass of Tory members in the country and perhaps more importantly within the Parliamentary party, Osborne needs to admit that he and Cameron as a two man team (for that indeed is what they were) made a number of serious mistakes, most notably over the so-called renegotiation over Europe which was a total disaster. He also needs to show total loyalty towards Mrs May which he might find rather difficult.
The truth is that even if she remains PM for only a comparatively short period, say until the next GE or possibly for an even shorter period, she is precisely the glue which the party needed right here and now and which no one else appeared capable of providing satisfactorily.0 -
Do you remember the good old days when OGH regularly assured us that Europe was way down the list of political issues? Now we talk of little else. I swear a picture of Kim Kardashian scratching her arse posted at three o'clock on a Sunday morning would provoke a row between brexiteers and bitter remainers.0
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As a matter of interest who do you think that isMorris_Dancer said:Miss Vance, vielleicht.
Look at Labour. If our departure goes ill, the blues will axe May and replace her with someone who gives them a better chance of winning. Labour will continue being led by a unilateralist friend of Hamas.0 -
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
0 -
Failure will be somewhat easier to measure than success.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
0 -
Well, if the Treasury was correct, the choice was between an economy that was 27% bigger by 2030 and an economy that was 36% bigger. I think most people could live with the former.Scott_P said:
At what economic cost?Sean_F said:For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success.
0 -
So the predictions from REMAIN about an immediate economic impact of the vote were lies?Scott_P said:
You know we haven't done anything yet, right?CarlottaVance said:So far, much less than was predicted....
0 -
I'm in fine fettle thanks, Mr L, and am just waiting for some bread to come out of the oven.HurstLlama said:
Good Morning, Mr. Jessop, Hope you are continuing to recover.JosiasJessop said:
The problem is that for many Brexiters (though far from all), a leave vote is just the start. They want to turn back the clock totally, as we saw on here yesterday. They feel they are in the ascendancy.felix said:
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
'Leave' for them will mean not just leaving the EU, but a whole raft of regressive policies.
Sorry I must of missed that discussion, there was a piss-take post about returning government to the size it was pre WWI and dismantling the policies of Jenkins et al. What are the "regressive policies" being sought by people who voted to leave the EU.
There were several posts yesterday from several posters, and I count anyone who talks about disassembling the progressive consensus or similar, and *anything* that flows out of Leadsom's diseased orifice.
Regressives in every sense of the word.
As for policies: reducing womens' rights, reducing freedoms, rowing back on the rights of immigrants, bringing back grammar schools without looking at the problems, etc, etc.0 -
Go on then define what you think failure means?IanB2 said:
Failure will be somewhat easier to measure than success.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
0 -
We dont for sure, but sacking osborne, bringing back grammar schools and still finding time to go to church on sundays sends a damn good dog whistle to that effectJosiasJessop said:
There's an awful lot of projection going on here. How do you know that May in 2020 will have performed to your (and the base's) satisfaction?HYUFD said:
Indeed, May is more reassuring to the Tory basePaul_Bedfordshire said:I voted kipper in 2015 but will vote Tory in 2020 under May.
Though if she's against Corbyn she'd probably have to mandate gay marriage for all and disestablish the CofE to lose the base.0 -
No just economic ignorance.CarlottaVance said:
So the predictions from REMAIN about an immediate economic impact of the vote were lies?Scott_P said:
You know we haven't done anything yet, right?CarlottaVance said:So far, much less than was predicted....
0 -
Is many more than 1%, 10%, 20%, 50%, 80% of PB LEAVErs?JosiasJessop said:
If you read my post, you can see the words "for many" and "though far from all".TCPoliticalBetting said:
You apply one PB poster's view to all? Are you serious?JosiasJessop said:
The problem is that for many Brexiters (though far from all), a leave vote is just the start. They want to turn back the clock totally, as we saw on here yesterday. They feel they are in the ascendancy.felix said:
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
'Leave' for them will mean not just leaving the EU, but a whole raft of regressive policies.
Next.
0 -
There will be a few who might move to UKIP if she makes even the slightest hint of compromise in the Brexit negotiations but the reassurances she is giving to the base at the moment should keep the majority on board, especially given the alternative is CorbynJosiasJessop said:
There's an awful lot of projection going on here. How do you know that May in 2020 will have performed to your (and the base's) satisfaction?HYUFD said:
Indeed, May is more reassuring to the Tory basePaul_Bedfordshire said:I voted kipper in 2015 but will vote Tory in 2020 under May.
Though if she's against Corbyn she'd probably have to mandate gay marriage for all and disestablish the CofE to lose the base.0 -
Not that it was correct. I actually took the time to read that report and it's some of the most obscene statistical and economic nonsense imaginable. It makes £350m/week look good.Sean_F said:
Well, if the Treasury was correct, the choice was between an economy that was 27% bigger by 2030 and an economy that was 36% bigger. I think most people could live with the former.Scott_P said:
At what economic cost?Sean_F said:For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success.
0 -
Whatever she does now she will be more reassuring than CameronTCPoliticalBetting said:
Today yes May is more reassuring to the Tory base.HYUFD said:
Indeed, May is more reassuring to the Tory basePaul_Bedfordshire said:
One good reason he failed to win a majority in 2010 and only scraped on un 2015 out of fear of the SNP being in official or unofficial?coalition with Labour.HYUFD said:
Yes, I think SamCam may also have had something to do with it, socially their circle was more likely to include Guardian readers I imagine than those who read the MailTCPoliticalBetting said:
To support your view. From early 2001, when he was just a hopeful parliamentary candidate, to spring 2004, by which time he was deputy chairman of his party, David Cameron wrote a series of fortnightly diaries .......in the Guardian.HYUFD said:
The key is Cameron spent his first year trying to win over the Guardian, May has focused on the Mail. Which is why I expect May to outlast Dave as PM. May knows that to win an election you need to reassure your base first then reach out (plus the Mail's readership is more than that of the Guardian and Times combined), Cameron started off trying to reassure people who would never vote for him anyway thus he failed to win a majority initially in 2010 and when he really needed his base in and after the EU referendum in particular, the majority deserted himPaul_Bedfordshire said:
She is undoutably going to be marmite in the way that Thatcher was. She is clearly far more right wing in a traditional way than the liberal 'wet' wing of the Tory party and the commontariat realised.CarlottaVance said:
Yes, May has the Mail, Sun and Telegraph on-side - the commentariat less so - we had a vote recently - did the commentariat win that?HYUFD said:CarlottaVance said:As a guess, I'd say Peter Hitchins is not a fan of David Cameron:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3794780/PETER-HITCHENS-Charmer-Cameron-slippery-slope-disaster.html
- if they had thought a little deeper, her finding the time to attend an Anglican Church every Sunday despite the time pressures of a great office of state was a huge giveaway.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/Columnists/Archive/0,,649666,00.html
I voted kipper in 2015 but will vote Tory in 2020 under May.0 -
I suppose failure would look like a devaluing pound, rising unemployment, increasing social division, race riots, the decline in British exports, GDP per capita falling behind comparable countries and the loss of British influence in the world. It would look a lot like before we joined the EU.HurstLlama said:
Go on then define what you think failure means?IanB2 said:
Failure will be somewhat easier to measure than success.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
0 -
Interesting piece. Nixon though had to wait in the wilderness for eight years. Is Osborne that patient? Is anyone in politics these days?0
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But George Osborne promoted it - predicting an "immediate shock" a recession and sharp rise in unemployment - and he's a Master Strategist, after all...TCPoliticalBetting said:
No just economic ignorance.CarlottaVance said:
So the predictions from REMAIN about an immediate economic impact of the vote were lies?Scott_P said:
You know we haven't done anything yet, right?CarlottaVance said:So far, much less than was predicted....
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf0 -
Unlike Cameron or Blair, Osborne is about an attractive hire on big bucks as Brown and I somehow doubt he wants to run a small wallpaper business.rottenborough said:Interesting piece. Nixon though had to wait in the wilderness for eight years. Is Osborne that patient? Is anyone in politics these days?
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Thanks Mr. J.. " ...reducing womens' rights, reducing freedoms, rowing back on the rights of immigrants", I know I spend too much time on this site but I don't think I have ever seen a post from anyone supporting any of those ideas.JosiasJessop said:
I'm in fine fettle thanks, Mr L, and am just waiting for some bread to come out of the oven.HurstLlama said:
Good Morning, Mr. Jessop, Hope you are continuing to recover.JosiasJessop said:
The problem is that for many Brexiters (though far from all), a leave vote is just the start. They want to turn back the clock totally, as we saw on here yesterday. They feel they are in the ascendancy.felix said:
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
'Leave' for them will mean not just leaving the EU, but a whole raft of regressive policies.
Sorry I must of missed that discussion, there was a piss-take post about returning government to the size it was pre WWI and dismantling the policies of Jenkins et al. What are the "regressive policies" being sought by people who voted to leave the EU.
There were several posts yesterday from several posters, and I count anyone who talks about disassembling the progressive consensus or similar, and *anything* that flows out of Leadsom's diseased orifice.
Regressives in every sense of the word.
As for policies: reducing womens' rights, reducing freedoms, rowing back on the rights of immigrants, bringing back grammar schools without looking at the problems, etc, etc.
Actually that is not quite true, I have posted myself on the fact that if we are going to have immigration controls then there must be a method by which overstayers and the like can be promptly removed otherwise there is no point in controlling who comes in. I suppose that could be construed as rowing back on the rights of immigrants.0 -
Liberals had been hoping that Trump's poll numbers would decrease after he trolled the press.
Instead, the LA Times tracking poll update shows that the gap between him & Hillary has increased by 0.7 points. His 47.7% in the poll is also a new high for him.
Trump now leading by +6.7.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
I suggest it could embrace four scenarios:HurstLlama said:
Go on then define what you think failure means?IanB2 said:
Failure will be somewhat easier to measure than success.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
- a significant economic downturn (prolonged recession)
- economic performance of the UK falls progressively behind rest of EU
- significant impediments to movement (visas, payments, queues to visit the EU; tons of hoops for businesses selling into Europe)
- EU falls apart, rise of extremist politics
On the last I readily accept that Brexit could be seen as symptom rather than cause, but one thing does tend to lead to another (e.g. Brexit is being used to try and fuel Trump, Le Pen etc)0 -
Chap with History degree who wants a forecast that advances his political view on the EU, instructs Treasury staff on assumptions to make and publishes the results............CarlottaVance said:
But George Osborne promoted it - predicting an "immediate shock" a recession and sharp rise in unemployment - and he's a Master Strategist, after all...TCPoliticalBetting said:
No just economic ignorance.CarlottaVance said:
So the predictions from REMAIN about an immediate economic impact of the vote were lies?Scott_P said:
You know we haven't done anything yet, right?CarlottaVance said:So far, much less than was predicted....
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
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And so far the Treasury's prediction of an "immediate shock" recession and sharp rise in unemployment have not proved too accurate..Sean_F said:
Well, if the Treasury was correct, the choice was between an economy that was 27% bigger by 2030 and an economy that was 36% bigger. I think most people could live with the former.Scott_P said:
At what economic cost?Sean_F said:For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success.
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And counter-factuals can never be settled definitively. Suppose in ten years, Europe is ruled by quasi-fascist and extreme left governments, was this caused by Brexit, or does it prove we were right to leave the whole project?HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
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As said at the time, numbers plucked out his arse....TCPoliticalBetting said:
Chap with History degree who wants a forecast that advances his political view on the EU, instructs Treasury staff on assumptions to make and publishes the results............CarlottaVance said:
But George Osborne promoted it - predicting an "immediate shock" a recession and sharp rise in unemployment - and he's a Master Strategist, after all...TCPoliticalBetting said:
No just economic ignorance.CarlottaVance said:
So the predictions from REMAIN about an immediate economic impact of the vote were lies?Scott_P said:
You know we haven't done anything yet, right?CarlottaVance said:So far, much less than was predicted....
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf0 -
Yes it would be very easy to say that.FrancisUrquhart said:Mayor of New York, Bill de Blasio, said that "all hands are on deck" in the city.
"We also want to be up front in saying that there is no evidence at this point of a terror connection to this incident," he added.
What a stupid thing to say...you don't just find several IEDs in a major city just from some one larking about. I think what he really means to say is no connection to Islamic terrorism at this stage.0 -
Without Prime Minister Cameron at his back, Osborne is a spent force.0
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A link to a document entitled "leaving_the_eu", which we haven't done yet...CarlottaVance said:But George Osborne promoted it - predicting an "immediate shock" a recession and sharp rise in unemployment - and he's a Master Strategist, after all...
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf0 -
This piece by Rentoul in Indie has bearing on the Osborne debate:
T"hat is why I thought she was unwise to humiliate George Osborne in her reshuffle. She could have allowed him to “resign” to allow her to present her government as fresh, and offered the prospect of a return. Instead, her people told journalists he had been lectured on his shortcomings and sacked."
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-gordon-brown-prime-minister-indecision-a7313421.html0 -
You know we haven't left yet, right?CarlottaVance said:And so far the Treasury's prediction of an "immediate shock" recession and sharp rise in unemployment have not proved too accurate..
0 -
Absolutely. There is no parallel universe to test the alternative scenario, and for any true believer (in anything) no amount of evidence to the contrary will prevent them from having an answer.Sean_F said:
And counter-factuals can never be settled definitively. Suppose in ten years, Europe is ruled by quasi-fascist and extreme left governments, was this caused by Brexit, or does it prove we were right to leave the whole project?HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
Ultimately the test is public opinion - in your scenario the question is whether most people believe that the Brexit vote led (or significantly contributed to) the outcome you describe. And, in the very long run, the verdict will be made by historians and what they are teaching in schools in 2116 (which in your scenario we may not like at all!).0 -
Suppose, for the sake of argument, the UK's GDP per head grew by 20% to 2030, but the EU average grew by 25%, would that count as failure?IanB2 said:
I suggest it could embrace four scenarios:HurstLlama said:
Go on then define what you think failure means?IanB2 said:
Failure will be somewhat easier to measure than success.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
- a significant economic downturn (prolonged recession)
- economic performance of the UK falls progressively behind rest of EU
- significant impediments to movement (visas, payments, queues to visit the EU; tons of hoops for businesses selling into Europe)
- EU falls apart, rise of extremist politics
On the last I readily accept that Brexit could be seen as symptom rather than cause, but one thing does tend to lead to another (e.g. Brexit is being used to try and fuel Trump, Le Pen etc)0 -
Osborne's Emergency Budget was going to have been put in place even though we wouldn't have left the EU either....Scott_P said:
A link to a document entitled "leaving_the_eu", which we haven't done yet...CarlottaVance said:But George Osborne promoted it - predicting an "immediate shock" a recession and sharp rise in unemployment - and he's a Master Strategist, after all...
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf
Unless of course that was just bullshit.0 -
It would suggest that Brexit may not have done us any favours but is probably an outcome people would be fairly happy with, except for the cost of travelling abroad.Sean_F said:
Suppose, for the sake of argument, the UK's GDP per head grew by 20% to 2030, but the EU average grew by 25%, would that count as failure?IanB2 said:
I suggest it could embrace four scenarios:HurstLlama said:
Go on then define what you think failure means?IanB2 said:
Failure will be somewhat easier to measure than success.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
- a significant economic downturn (prolonged recession)
- economic performance of the UK falls progressively behind rest of EU
- significant impediments to movement (visas, payments, queues to visit the EU; tons of hoops for businesses selling into Europe)
- EU falls apart, rise of extremist politics
On the last I readily accept that Brexit could be seen as symptom rather than cause, but one thing does tend to lead to another (e.g. Brexit is being used to try and fuel Trump, Le Pen etc)0 -
Banning the hijab, burkha and even balaclavas, throwing out all Muslims (though that was in one of SeanT's more colourful periods), treating peaceful Muslims differently to other citizens, reducing availability or banning abortions, reducing womens' accessibility to the workplace, wanting to reintroduce grammar schools whilst ignoring the problems at the lower end of achievement, etc, etc.HurstLlama said:
Thanks Mr. J.. " ...reducing womens' rights, reducing freedoms, rowing back on the rights of immigrants", I know I spend too much time on this site but I don't think I have ever seen a post from anyone supporting any of those ideas.JosiasJessop said:
I'm in fine fettle thanks, Mr L, and am just waiting for some bread to come out of the oven.HurstLlama said:
Good Morning, Mr. Jessop, Hope you are continuing to recover.JosiasJessop said:
The problem is that for many Brexiters (though far from all), a leave vote is just the start. They want to turn back the clock totally, as we saw on here yesterday. They feel they are in the ascendancy.felix said:
They want to run the whole referendum campaign again - did no-one tell them the result?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Trouble-making Tory Eurosceptics push for hard Brexit with new Leave means Leave campaign https://t.co/4UFj0Q4TIO
'Leave' for them will mean not just leaving the EU, but a whole raft of regressive policies.
Sorry I must of missed that discussion, there was a piss-take post about returning government to the size it was pre WWI and dismantling the policies of Jenkins et al. What are the "regressive policies" being sought by people who voted to leave the EU.
There were several posts yesterday from several posters, and I count anyone who talks about disassembling the progressive consensus or similar, and *anything* that flows out of Leadsom's diseased orifice.
Regressives in every sense of the word.
As for policies: reducing womens' rights, reducing freedoms, rowing back on the rights of immigrants, bringing back grammar schools without looking at the problems, etc, etc.
Actually that is not quite true, I have posted myself on the fact that if we are going to have immigration controls then there must be a method by which overstayers and the like can be promptly removed otherwise there is no point in controlling who comes in. I suppose that could be construed as rowing back on the rights of immigrants.
Having said that, the more colourful progressives can be as bad, though they're not so much in evidence on PB.0 -
Lib Dem careers advice. Wonderful ammunition for local leaflets?
Sun Politics✔ @SunPolitics
Lib Dem says schools should be able to suggest prostitution as a line of work to pupils
http://thesun.uk/6011B7rCU
"During a discussion on how to combat the stigma attached to sex work, chairman of Cheltenham Lib Dems Mr Parsons compared prostitution with accountancy.
He said: “The fact that we are asking ‘should we seek to prevent people entering sex work?’ is part of the problem. You wouldn’t ask the question ‘should we prevent people becoming accountants?’ You’d just take it for granted.”"0 -
Another interesting fact from the LA Times poll.
Black support for Trump has increased to 20%.
So, he wasn't wasting his time appealing for votes from African-Americans.
Also, male support for Clinton has fallen to 34% vs 55% for Trump.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
It might just mean that spurred on by Brexit, the EU had taken hard choices - and finally got its shit together. I hope for their sake that is how it pans out.Sean_F said:
Suppose, for the sake of argument, the UK's GDP per head grew by 20% to 2030, but the EU average grew by 25%, would that count as failure?IanB2 said:
I suggest it could embrace four scenarios:HurstLlama said:
Go on then define what you think failure means?IanB2 said:
Failure will be somewhat easier to measure than success.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
- a significant economic downturn (prolonged recession)
- economic performance of the UK falls progressively behind rest of EU
- significant impediments to movement (visas, payments, queues to visit the EU; tons of hoops for businesses selling into Europe)
- EU falls apart, rise of extremist politics
On the last I readily accept that Brexit could be seen as symptom rather than cause, but one thing does tend to lead to another (e.g. Brexit is being used to try and fuel Trump, Le Pen etc)
Still wouldn't alter my vote though.0 -
Which part of "immediate shock" after a BREXIT vote is unclear?Scott_P said:
You know we haven't left yet, right?CarlottaVance said:And so far the Treasury's prediction of an "immediate shock" recession and sharp rise in unemployment have not proved too accurate..
0 -
Fair Go, Mr. B2, but three out of the four criteria could only be judged a fair while after we actually leave the EU i.e. the other side of 2020 and in the case of item 2 a long time after we have left.IanB2 said:
I suggest it could embrace four scenarios:HurstLlama said:
Go on then define what you think failure means?IanB2 said:
Failure will be somewhat easier to measure than success.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
- a significant economic downturn (prolonged recession)
- economic performance of the UK falls progressively behind rest of EU
- significant impediments to movement (visas, payments, queues to visit the EU; tons of hoops for businesses selling into Europe)
- EU falls apart, rise of extremist politics
On the last I readily accept that Brexit could be seen as symptom rather than cause, but one thing does tend to lead to another (e.g. Brexit is being used to try and fuel Trump, Le Pen etc)
This is what I was struggling to get at when people say if Brexit fails or if Brexit is a disaster then TM will have to resign blah, blah, blah. Failure is not, unless defined on some purely subjective criteria, able to be measured in the timescales of TM's premiership.0 -
What end-result in ten years would make you regret the way you voted?MarqueeMark said:
It might just mean that spurred on by Brexit, the EU had taken hard choices - and finally got its shit together. I hope for their sake that is how it pans out.Sean_F said:
Suppose, for the sake of argument, the UK's GDP per head grew by 20% to 2030, but the EU average grew by 25%, would that count as failure?IanB2 said:
I suggest it could embrace four scenarios:HurstLlama said:
Go on then define what you think failure means?IanB2 said:
Failure will be somewhat easier to measure than success.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. F., people on here talk breezily about Brexit ending in failure or even disaster but without ever defining what constitutes failure. Whatever the result of the negotiations some people will regard them as a failure even a disaster. So without some metrics it is all a bit of a nonsense, and we can't have said metrics because there cannot be an agreed definition of success.Sean_F said:Whether Brexit is a success or a failure largely depends on what one's political outlook is. For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success. But, for those whose political outlook is opposite to my own, achieving those objectives counts as failure.
- a significant economic downturn (prolonged recession)
- economic performance of the UK falls progressively behind rest of EU
- significant impediments to movement (visas, payments, queues to visit the EU; tons of hoops for businesses selling into Europe)
- EU falls apart, rise of extremist politics
On the last I readily accept that Brexit could be seen as symptom rather than cause, but one thing does tend to lead to another (e.g. Brexit is being used to try and fuel Trump, Le Pen etc)
Still wouldn't alter my vote though.0 -
The emergency budget was said to take place immediately after a Bexit vote because of market and businesses anticipation of what would happen when we did leave the EU.Scott_P said:
You know we haven't left yet, right?CarlottaVance said:And so far the Treasury's prediction of an "immediate shock" recession and sharp rise in unemployment have not proved too accurate..
0 -
the la times is one of the worse polls out there. what it says is pretty uselessvik said:Another interesting fact from the LA Times poll.
Black support for Trump has increased to 20%.
So, he wasn't wasting his time appealing for votes from African-Americans.
Also, male support for Clinton has fallen to 34% vs 55% for Trump.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/0 -
Mr. NorthWales, not sure.
Mr. Betting, if it's Lib Dem policy to completely legalise all aspects of prostitution, that's an intellectually coherent position to hold.
I wonder if they'd put VAT on it.0 -
I wouldn't take it for granted - I'd like to know what the arguments for stopping people becoming accountants are?TCPoliticalBetting said:Lib Dem careers advice. Wonderful ammunition for local leaflets?
Sun Politics✔ @SunPolitics
Lib Dem says schools should be able to suggest prostitution as a line of work to pupils
http://thesun.uk/6011B7rCU
"During a discussion on how to combat the stigma attached to sex work, chairman of Cheltenham Lib Dems Mr Parsons compared prostitution with accountancy.
He said: “The fact that we are asking ‘should we seek to prevent people entering sex work?’ is part of the problem. You wouldn’t ask the question ‘should we prevent people becoming accountants?’ You’d just take it for granted.”"0 -
Is it possible that Osborne was advised by Danny Blanchflower?CarlottaVance said:
And so far the Treasury's prediction of an "immediate shock" recession and sharp rise in unemployment have not proved too accurate..Sean_F said:
Well, if the Treasury was correct, the choice was between an economy that was 27% bigger by 2030 and an economy that was 36% bigger. I think most people could live with the former.Scott_P said:
At what economic cost?Sean_F said:For me, a reassertion of national sovereignty, and an end to free migration are good things, and therefore achieving them would count as success.
0 -
Good article and nice to see Casino joining the panel of above-the-line writers.
I think Osborne has chosen a not-very-veiled oppositional role and May does not go in for rewarding that, so I suspect it'll be a while before his chance comes - if May becomes very unpopular, though, he might be seen as a useful reinforcement and/or possible replacement.0
