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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is George Osborne the answer to Brexit?
I didn’t think this would be a post I’d ever write. Anyone who’s followed my posts over the last three years will know I’m not exactly George Osborne’s biggest fan.
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I have been pointing out on here that Osborne is one of the most underrated, but politically astute and LOYAL strategists within the Conservative party for a decade now. I also pointed out that May's behaviour towards Osborne as Chancellor, and as Cameron's most loyal Cabinet colleague and friend was absolutely appalling. It was her first huge political mistake upon becoming Conservative Leader and PM, and it said far more about her weakness in Leadership style than it did about Osborne and his previous record in Government.
I disagree with Casino Royal on Osborne's need to atone for his sins or rehabilitate his reputation. I don't think that you should have to do that if you are loyally serving your PM and Government on an agenda as set out in the mandate you had just been given by the electorate! Unlike one Theresa May as it should be pointed out, sitting comfortable on the fence during the whole Brexit campaign! Osborne was on the other side of the argument during the campaign when he backed his PM and friend, it is time to get over it. Osborne has time and again proved he puts the election of a Conservative Government ahead of his own personal ambitions, so working under or with other Leaders was never going to be an issue for him.
I still think its a huge political misjudgement that May put Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox in key Cabinet positions which placed them in charge of Brexit. That Casino Royal is now finally beginning to realise that Osborne should not have been sacked, but instead given a key role in our Brexit negotiations is a real break through. If he is now speaking out, how many others within the Conservative party are thinking the along the same lines? Nobody else in the current Cabinet knows their counterparts in Europe better than Osborne did as Chancellor among the key EU Finance Ministers. It is worth remembering how hard he fought against the EU financial transaction tax.
I still find it incredible that May so harshly sacked Osborne in such a way that she forced him to leave by the back entrance of Downing Street rather than allowing him the dignity of the resignation letter and reply thanking him for his service which he so obviously deserved. But then again, she also sacked another very effective Cabinet colleague in Michael Gove. I wonder who the EU would really like to face across the Brexit negotiations table, Johnson, Davis and Fox or instead Osborne and Gove? I know who I would bet on when it came to getting us the best deal.
@StanleyCohenLaw Graphic video of #explosion in #Chelsea
@NYCityAlerts https://t.co/4YgXTvOnbz via @RussellBlaymore
Police checking for possible second device
It was intentional explosion
29 hurt 24 in hospital 1 serious puncture wound, rest cuts scrapes and bruised
FBI and terrorism cops investigation including another poss device
This is third today isn't it? Device in New Jersey, multiple stabbing in shopping mall
Sources: Authorities believe they may have found a pressure cooker device with wires and timer on 27th St in NYC. W/ @AaronKatersky
Is she highly medicated or what?? RT @ABCLiz: Hillary Clinton, on her campaign plane, responds to explosion in NYC https://t.co/YG4vi1GrqT
Exhibit A: http://images.indianexpress.com/2016/04/christopher-walken-759.jpg
His career is not over though. I can see him coming back when May falls from grace, not least for a quick jig on her political grave.
The only way Osborne gets close to power again requires him to come through the revolving doors that May is leaving from.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/disability-sport/37398333
He suffered a cardiac arrest after a crash on a mountainous stretch - though not the same stretch that caused the Olympic cyclists trouble.
RIP.
And as far as the Conservative Party goes, they're probably wise to keep a reserve team untainted by the slow-motion brexit car crash.
As @Casino_Royale notes, the government is weaker without George Osborne. One of the many ill effects of the Leave vote was to weaken the ability of the government considerably. But since Leavers are tired of experts, that is no doubt not a concern that troubles the winners.
I also agree with Casino Royale that Osborne's route back involves a degree of atonement - while he was loyal to Cameron he also assiduously promoted his own little helpers - and to do that he needs to be a critical friend of the government. So far he's doing the first part, if not the second....
This "May sacking St George" story is growing arms & legs.....who is briefing it? St George's little helpers?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/17/theresa-may-prime-minister-prepared-to-risk-it-all?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/777280259875975169
He is quite literally the last person the UK needs to bring into the Brexit negotiations.
clinto ahead in MI by 6 points. another good state poll
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/melania-trump-donald-not-hitler-223277
Its just a pressure cooker with mental health issues #Manhattan
LOL
I can sort of see why May didnt want such a self serving individual around.
Osborne has powerful allies in the media who will uncritically quote his version of events. All the briefing against Clegg and claiming that DPM was a less important post than Chancellor, for example, appears to have been done by him personally against Cameron's wishes.
However, merely because Osborne feels vengeful and humiliated does not suddenly make him a formidable politician or a potential leader. These are more the sort of noises off Thatcher had to contend with from Heath than a real threat to May.
If trouble does come it is likely to be led by Fox. That in itself suggests she is pretty secure for now.
FWIW I think May is vulnerable. Quite happy for her to stay put 'til the election. If Labour ever gets it act together, they should find a rich seam to mine. Heck, Corbyn even trounced her last week.
I never realised before that police spokesmen were consultant psychiatrists in their spare time.
If the Boston marathon explosion happened today, it would be "an incident with no proven connection to terrorism", then caused by two brothers with mental health issues who were known locally as Fred and Bert.
Is there a crib sheet they are all using?
NB It may well be a lone nutter this time, but if not, we'll not know for a few weeks.
Mr. CD13, I was wondering to what you were referring, then saw the BBC report. An 'intentional' blast. But no known terrorist connections. Rightyho. That'll maximise public trust in authorities not treating them like mushrooms.
F1: my pre-race piece, now with added comments, is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/09/singapore-pre-race-2016.html
On-topic: I was intrigued to see which Osborne-loather had written it
I don't think it'll happen. Davis may have been exiled to the backbenchers, but May had no personal problem with him. I could be wrong, but it sounds like she does with Osborne.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3794780/PETER-HITCHENS-Charmer-Cameron-slippery-slope-disaster.html
Will we see a shadow SOS for Palestine, and a policy of unilateral disarmament? Surely a split in the Parliamentary party if this goes though?
Populist politics prefers folk wisdom, and half baked theories, to the mundane business of evidence and expert analysis. It is all part of post truth politics.
"Surely you'd want the authorities both to tell the truth & to say whatever helps people keep calmest. Glad that's not my job description..."
I understand that - they're worried about copy-cats so they default to something else. But the default is exactly that. Worded to keep people calm rather than revealing the truth. When people start to disbelieve, it becomes a general cynicism which makes things worse.
OMG, what are they hiding? What else are they hiding from us?
The truth isn't always that bad. Lone wolves/copycats tend to be less organised and less dangerous.
For him alone, May deserves the benefit of any possible doubt.
And then she sacked Morgan too
It's absurd - they're so busy trying to protect The Religion Of Peace/blame Trump that they've entirely missed the point of the story.
FFS - even I've seen the photo taken by the police officer on scene of the pressure cooker with the cell phone attached to it - they used a robot to blow that up. IIRC that's' what the Boston Marathon bombers used - also hidden in bins.
If he does have many fellow MPs alongside him, it would be hard for May to ignore him.
On another matter: so much depends on the Conservative Party Conference this year. May's been rather unimpressive so far, but she was parachuted in early. By conference we need to know more about the direction she wishes to take the country in, and how.
It will be interesting to see how the others of the old regime fare, such as Jeremy Hunt. TM seems to back him as per this little clip. Perhaps she feels threatened by people of ability. It would explain a lot about her current cabinet.
https://youtu.be/nsCDAp_aFEg
I expect CNN to do this - and they did. Now Sky here?!? I'm very unimpressed.
Remember what happened after the Madrid bombing? Jumping to conclusions helped bring down the government, an aim probably beyond the expectations of the bombers.
Yet the insatiable 24-hour news, plus the 'crime experts' on here, need feeding.
They hid it remarkably well then.
EDIT
BNO News
UPDATE: Man who stabbed 8 at Minnesota mall spoke about Allah, asked at least person if they were Muslim
The new york ones were in a very upmarket area and the new Jersey one targetted at the armed forces.
So, assuming it is not mentally ill peaceful people called Dave it sounds like far left nutters. Either way bad news for the democ rats
So I think Sky/CNN have this right.
35 years ago today: 'go back to your constituencies and prepare for government' - https://t.co/XCfDgPEFgY
There's no chance of her being ousted after this conference, but if she flounders about much longer she'll be in trouble in a year or two.
I don;t actually blame her for these initial issues: the leadership campaign was too abrupt for positions to develop. But that excuse cannot be used much longer.
It's all over Twitter - I watched myself.