politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why part of my expected Diane James winnings will go on Jus

Lib Dem gain from Labour

Tupton (North East Derbyshire) result:
LDEM: 38.3% (+38.3)
LAB: 34.7% (-32.4)
CON: 17.5% (-15.4)
UKIP: 8.9% (+8.9)
BPP: 0.7% (+0.7)

@David_Evershed The Lib Dems just nosed it there.

Not a bad bet, the policy has not been thought through well enough and having a comprehensive educated person implement wider academic selection seems like a crazy move on the face of it.

FPT:

Reading Nick's article, and the Paul Waugh article which Plato just linked to, prompted me to look again at the 'Corbyn To Go Before Next General Election?' market on Betfair.

I was already on No, and I've just topped up at 1.5. This looks like a no-brainer to me, apart from actuarial risk. Sad though it is from the points of view both of entertainment and of betting opportunities, I have to say that Nick is right when he says in his article: Forget about a third leadership election before 2020. Once was necessary when Ed stood down. Twice was perhaps understandable in view of the PLP unrest. Three would be ridiculous. At some point the result of elections needs to be respected, and we’ve reached it.

In addition, there's a kind of stalemate which makes Corbyn's position very strong indeed.

It seems that harmony is not likely to break out in UKIP any time soon:

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/776683734695161857

Justine Greening seems to be hanging on just waiting for May's grammar school policy to get kicked into the long grass and wither on the vine. Indeed she might have some influence in making the long grass grow longer still.

SimonStClare said:

Diane James would be a excellent choice as UKIP leader imho, she might even convince some of the UKIP ladies not to abandon ship.

Great. 2 sugars love.

AlastairMeeks said:

@Richard_Nabavi Is there any reason why Douglas Carswell couldn't rejoin the Conservatives now? Brexit has been voted for and his pathological hatred of David Cameron is no longer a relevant consideration on either side.

Maybe Theresa will wheel him out mid-conference.

I note that Douglas Carswell did retweet this:

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/776677681039601665

Though that might just be internal party score-settling, I suppose.

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Richard_Nabavi Is there any reason why Douglas Carswell couldn't rejoin the Conservatives now? Brexit has been voted for and his pathological hatred of David Cameron is no longer a relevant consideration on either side.

No reason that I can see. He might prefer to be an independent, though.

Would May even accept him? She doesn't need him.

If he switched, he would have to fight another by-election. This time he might lose.

Tissue_Price said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@Richard_Nabavi Is there any reason why Douglas Carswell couldn't rejoin the Conservatives now? Brexit has been voted for and his pathological hatred of David Cameron is no longer a relevant consideration on either side.

Maybe Theresa will wheel him out mid-conference.

With the divisions in all of the parties at the moment, I'd currently be more surprised not to see a couple of defections at some point during the conference season.

I also the forthcoming contretemps over Heathrow makes this a good bet

Clacton is going blue at the next GE - it doesn't matter if Carswell fights it alone or under UKIP

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also the forthcoming contretemps over Heathrow makes this a good bet

It looks like it's going ahead given Boris' outburst.

Off topic, I see that Betfair punters seem to have decided that Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden aren't poised to step into Hillary Clinton's $5000 shoes.

UKIP, Conservative, Labour

#FerretsInASack

FPT

Sandpit said:

Charles said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: MPs to debate recommissioning Britannia for Brexit trade talks next month: https://t.co/AfTmdV9JCE

How desperate can they get

From the people I've spoken to over the years, it was surprising impactful in trade. People really liked being invited onto the "Royal Yacht" for trade talks. Idiotic and superficial, but very effective and low cost branding. So why not?

Quite. Republicans in the U.K. underestimate the impact these symbols have abroad. Worth every penny in marketing Britain across the world. Even £100m isn't much when spread over 30 or 40 years.

Very true, Mr. Pit, the figures are trivial and were equally so when Brown refused the cash to replace Britannia. The decision I am sure was taken not for monetary reasons but out of spite.

To have a new Royal Yacht would be a cracking idea, not least for the reasons Mr. Charles mentions (assuming there is a shipyard in the UK capable of building such a thing), but to dig the old girl out of retirement would be a very bad idea on so many levels.

One idea I did have a few years ago was that a new yacht could be built by public subscription. The livery companies in the City are filthy rich and their members even more so. Given the right approach I think one could raise £100 million for a Royal Yacht out of the city in about a month, maybe six weeks. Crikey you could probably get that much out of the Goldsmiths alone. Open the subscription up to the wider public and there would be more than enough.

The problem would be crewing the vessel. The RN haven't got enough sailors to crew their existing ships.

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Reading Nick's article, and the Paul Waugh article which Plato just linked to, prompted me to look again at the 'Corbyn To Go Before Next General Election?' market on Betfair.

I was already on No, and I've just topped up at 1.5. This looks like a no-brainer to me, apart from actuarial risk. Sad though it is from the points of view both of entertainment and of betting opportunities, I have to say that Nick is right when he says in his article: Forget about a third leadership election before 2020. Once was necessary when Ed stood down. Twice was perhaps understandable in view of the PLP unrest. Three would be ridiculous. At some point the result of elections needs to be respected, and we’ve reached it.

In addition, there's a kind of stalemate which makes Corbyn's position very strong indeed.

sounds good to me, I also think I have a few (At longer odds of course) Corbyn out in 2018/19 and a 9-2 for him to be out in 2020.

Just have to hope the "purge" hasn't worked too well for Smith...

David_Evershed said:

With Osborne starting to build a small challenge to May, she would be advised to make sure she bends to the wises of the three Brexiteers in the cabinet and keeps them on board.

Osborne's challenge is good for hard Brexit lovers.

I don't know what Osborne is so bitter about. He sealed his own fate. It's not like Theresa could have kept him on in a high profile job after the referendum fiasco...

If he'd had any sense (and dignity) he'd have announced his intention to resign on his own terms with Cameron shortly after the referendum.

@Richard_Nabavi Of course till next GE isn't necessarily 2020. An early election would improve the bet even further .

As is an 11% annualised tax free return is not to be sniffed out.

http://order-order.com/2016/09/16/blunt-assessment-after-saudi-farce-now-libya-report-debunked/

What are the side effects of prolonged popper use?

GIN1138 said:

David_Evershed said:

With Osborne starting to build a small challenge to May, she would be advised to make sure she bends to the wises of the three Brexiteers in the cabinet and keeps them on board.

Osborne's challenge is good for hard Brexit lovers.

I don't know what Osborne is so bitter about. He sealed his own fate. It's not like Theresa could have kept him on in a high profile job after the referendum fiasco...

If he'd had any sense (and dignity) he'd have announced his intention to resign on his own terms with Cameron shortly after the referendum.

Did you actually listen to his interview? It wasn't bitter at all.

He's enough of a pro to realise that politics is a brutal game, and fortunes can turn on a sixpence. Who knows what the situation will look like in a few years' time?

Pulpstar said:

@Richard_Nabavi Of course till next GE isn't necessarily 2020. An early election would improve the bet even further .

As is an 11% annualised tax free return is not to be sniffed out.

And I expect it will be possible to cash out earlier.

Richard_Nabavi said:

GIN1138 said:

David_Evershed said:

With Osborne starting to build a small challenge to May, she would be advised to make sure she bends to the wises of the three Brexiteers in the cabinet and keeps them on board.

Osborne's challenge is good for hard Brexit lovers.

I don't know what Osborne is so bitter about. He sealed his own fate. It's not like Theresa could have kept him on in a high profile job after the referendum fiasco...

If he'd had any sense (and dignity) he'd have announced his intention to resign on his own terms with Cameron shortly after the referendum.

Did you actually listen to his interview? It wasn't bitter at all.

He's enough of a pro to realise that politics is a brutal game, and fortunes can turn on a sixpence. Who knows what the situation will look like in a few years' time?

He might be bitter that Cameron didn't listen to his advice that an EU referendum was a "crazy idea".

Richard_Nabavi said:

GIN1138 said:

David_Evershed said:

With Osborne starting to build a small challenge to May, she would be advised to make sure she bends to the wises of the three Brexiteers in the cabinet and keeps them on board.

Osborne's challenge is good for hard Brexit lovers.

I don't know what Osborne is so bitter about. He sealed his own fate. It's not like Theresa could have kept him on in a high profile job after the referendum fiasco...

If he'd had any sense (and dignity) he'd have announced his intention to resign on his own terms with Cameron shortly after the referendum.

Did you actually listen to his interview? It wasn't bitter at all.

He's enough of a pro to realise that politics is a brutal game, and fortunes can turn on a sixpence. Who knows what the situation will look like in a few years' time?

Well of course he wouldn't admit to being bitter... But we know enough about the character to know that he and his "think tank" will be a thorn in the side of Theresa May and when she eventually leaves office he'll probably play a big part in her downfall...

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

GIN1138 said:

David_Evershed said:

With Osborne starting to build a small challenge to May, she would be advised to make sure she bends to the wises of the three Brexiteers in the cabinet and keeps them on board.

Osborne's challenge is good for hard Brexit lovers.

I don't know what Osborne is so bitter about. He sealed his own fate. It's not like Theresa could have kept him on in a high profile job after the referendum fiasco...

If he'd had any sense (and dignity) he'd have announced his intention to resign on his own terms with Cameron shortly after the referendum.

Did you actually listen to his interview? It wasn't bitter at all.

He's enough of a pro to realise that politics is a brutal game, and fortunes can turn on a sixpence. Who knows what the situation will look like in a few years' time?

Yes, his time could come again, once Brexit is done and not reversible his stock will rise. He will never be leader while Brexit is still in process.

Or, Brexit has proved such an economic disaster, or indeed, actually technically too impossible to implement, that his foresight becomes recognized.

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also the forthcoming contretemps over Heathrow makes this a good bet

It looks like it's going ahead given Boris' outburst.

Thank goodness. We are way behind in having the argument about the next runway (after this one) in the south east. If there is to be any chance of it happening before 2050 we need to start the moaning and protesting and investigating and reporting and indecision really soon.

Lol, by 2022 when the third runway is nearing completion we'll need a second one at Gatwick and a fourth at Heathrow! I think we should build two at Heathrow, one at Gatwick and one at stansted. Close Luton airport.

I would certainly give the go ahead for a second one at Gatwick now, in addition to Heathrow. We honestly make ourselves look ridiculous with this nonsense.

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also the forthcoming contretemps over Heathrow makes this a good bet

It looks like it's going ahead given Boris' outburst.

Thank goodness. We are way behind in having the argument about the next runway (after this one) in the south east. If there is to be any chance of it happening before 2050 we need to start the moaning and protesting and investigating and reporting and indecision really soon.

Lol, by 2022 when the third runway is nearing completion we'll need a second one at Gatwick and a fourth at Heathrow! I think we should build two at Heathrow, one at Gatwick and one at stansted. Close Luton airport.

Or just build Boris Island. Even with all the infrastructure costs it would probably be quicker and cheaper.

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also the forthcoming contretemps over Heathrow makes this a good bet

It looks like it's going ahead given Boris' outburst.

Thank goodness. We are way behind in having the argument about the next runway (after this one) in the south east. If there is to be any chance of it happening before 2050 we need to start the moaning and protesting and investigating and reporting and indecision really soon.

It's been talked about for at least 20 years so far, and the decision - if and when it is made - will only start the planning process and inevitable public enquiry, which will waste another few years.

Major planning reform is long overdue, would be my #1 suggestion for the Queen's Speech.

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also the forthcoming contretemps over Heathrow makes this a good bet

It looks like it's going ahead given Boris' outburst.

Thank goodness. We are way behind in having the argument about the next runway (after this one) in the south east. If there is to be any chance of it happening before 2050 we need to start the moaning and protesting and investigating and reporting and indecision really soon.

Lol, by 2022 when the third runway is nearing completion we'll need a second one at Gatwick and a fourth at Heathrow! I think we should build two at Heathrow, one at Gatwick and one at stansted. Close Luton airport.

Why is Stanstead never in the mix?

People hate Ryanair?

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Reading Nick's article, and the Paul Waugh article which Plato just linked to, prompted me to look again at the 'Corbyn To Go Before Next General Election?' market on Betfair.

I was already on No, and I've just topped up at 1.5. This looks like a no-brainer to me, apart from actuarial risk. Sad though it is from the points of view both of entertainment and of betting opportunities, I have to say that Nick is right when he says in his article: Forget about a third leadership election before 2020. Once was necessary when Ed stood down. Twice was perhaps understandable in view of the PLP unrest. Three would be ridiculous. At some point the result of elections needs to be respected, and we’ve reached it.

In addition, there's a kind of stalemate which makes Corbyn's position very strong indeed.

What I think you are missing is that Corbyn is not capable of leading. He cannot do unity because he cannot do compromise. This is what will do for him. And that's why I think it is an excellent idea for the PLP to do as much as it can to be seen to be pushing for unity.

On topic, Ladbrokes give 21 names and if you backed everyone who was quoted at 25/1 or longer without looking, you wouldn't go all that far wrong. Justine Greening was ok value at 20/1 but I wouldn't back her at shorter odds.

I'm not playing this market at present though.

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also the forthcoming contretemps over Heathrow makes this a good bet

It looks like it's going ahead given Boris' outburst.

Thank goodness. We are way behind in having the argument about the next runway (after this one) in the south east. If there is to be any chance of it happening before 2050 we need to start the moaning and protesting and investigating and reporting and indecision really soon.

Lol, by 2022 when the third runway is nearing completion we'll need a second one at Gatwick and a fourth at Heathrow! I think we should build two at Heathrow, one at Gatwick and one at stansted. Close Luton airport.

Or just build Boris Island. Even with all the infrastructure costs it would probably be quicker and cheaper.

Nah, I've looked at BI plans over and over. Its just pie in the sky. 4 runways in the Thames Estuary means the site will have to be huge and recovering the land will cost tens of billions. In addition, 4 runways isn't enough at such an isolated airport, Heathrow will still have some feed in from other London airports as it does now negating the need for further expansion, BI won't benefit from that easily.

SouthamObserver said:

What I think you are missing is that Corbyn is not capable of leading. He cannot do unity because he cannot do compromise. This is what will do for him. And that's why I think it is an excellent idea for the PLP to do as much as it can to be seen to be pushing for unity.

Oh, I agree. I certainly don't share Nick's view that everyone in the party can simply pretend to be friends again and the problem will go away. But that doesn't mean Corbyn can realistically be dislodged, having won (as we assume) two leadership elections in decisive fashion, and with no mechanism to dislodge him.

Right so far today I've:

Backed a 20-1 shot,
Backed a 1.5
And laid an 80-1 outsider !

rural_voter said:

Pulpstar said:

rural_voter said:

There must have been a rush.
Ladbrokes aren't taking bets on J. Greening (well not at 20).

Good headed tips don't last long at the price.

Shadsy will put her back in at 12s maybe.

Yes, we were rather spoilt by GE-2015 when the value bets lasted for months and were still there on election day.

Truro and Falmouth @ 1-4 was the one I really couldn't get my head round.

Has Phil Hammond actually said anything (About anything) yet ?

He seems a remarkably quiet chancellor.

Sandpit said:

MaxPB said:

HurstLlama said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also the forthcoming contretemps over Heathrow makes this a good bet

It looks like it's going ahead given Boris' outburst.

Thank goodness. We are way behind in having the argument about the next runway (after this one) in the south east. If there is to be any chance of it happening before 2050 we need to start the moaning and protesting and investigating and reporting and indecision really soon.

Lol, by 2022 when the third runway is nearing completion we'll need a second one at Gatwick and a fourth at Heathrow! I think we should build two at Heathrow, one at Gatwick and one at stansted. Close Luton airport.

Or just build Boris Island. Even with all the infrastructure costs it would probably be quicker and cheaper.

Nah, I've looked at BI plans over and over. Its just pie in the sky. 4 runways in the Thames Estuary means the site will have to be huge and recovering the land will cost tens of billions. In addition, 4 runways isn't enough at such an isolated airport, Heathrow will still have some feed in from other London airports as it does now negating the need for further expansion, BI won't benefit from that easily.

The estuary is also home to lots of birds - go watch the Sully movie for details - and USS Montgomery is still there. Would also need airspace co-ordination with AMS which currently uses a lot of the Channel.
The business plan for BI only works if LHR gets sold off to build a new town, but BI is completely the wrong side of London for most of the South East to get to it. Business located along the M3 and M4 corridors need the airport to be where it is. Would probably have to widen the whole M25 to accommodate the traffic too.

But other than that, it's a good idea?

MaxPB said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I also the forthcoming contretemps over Heathrow makes this a good bet

It looks like it's going ahead given Boris' outburst.

Thank goodness. We are way behind in having the argument about the next runway (after this one) in the south east. If there is to be any chance of it happening before 2050 we need to start the moaning and protesting and investigating and reporting and indecision really soon.

Lol, by 2022 when the third runway is nearing completion we'll need a second one at Gatwick and a fourth at Heathrow! I think we should build two at Heathrow, one at Gatwick and one at stansted. Close Luton airport.

Why is Stanstead never in the mix?

People hate Ryanair?

Maybe because you have to jog a marathon to get to/from the departure gates.

Ben Bradshaw doesn't sound ready to kiss and make up with the current leadership:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/16/jeremy-corbyn-no-leader-labour-mps-accused-abusing

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

What I think you are missing is that Corbyn is not capable of leading. He cannot do unity because he cannot do compromise. This is what will do for him. And that's why I think it is an excellent idea for the PLP to do as much as it can to be seen to be pushing for unity.

Oh, I agree. I certainly don't share Nick's view that everyone in the party can simply pretend to be friends again and the problem will go away. But that doesn't mean Corbyn can realistically be dislodged, having won (as we assume) two leadership elections in decisive fashion, and with no mechanism to dislodge him.

Yes, and I'm not naive enough to think that the issue will just go away. But at this point, as SO observes, the PLP is best advised to be seen to be giving unity a try.

Corbyn has compromised several times - not pressing his NATO scepticism or his republicanism, agreeing that his reference to Hamas as "friends" was a mistake and tacitly agreeing to a free vote on Trident (not yet formalised but it's clearly coming). He's not an elastic politician like Boris, but he's learned as leader - a year ago I think he'd have walked into the "why not talk with ISIS?" trap that Owen walked into.

Hmm, not often I say this, but here's an interesting comment piece by Gaby Hinsliff:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/sep/16/theresa-may-doctrine-grammar-schools

Charles said:

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

Has Phil Hammond actually said anything (About anything) yet ?

He seems a remarkably quiet chancellor.

He's told EU nationals who have made their lives here, and in some cases (like my sister in law), married and had children here - that their rights can't be guaranteed.

On the other hand, he's happy to publicly reassure bankers that there won't be a problem;

http://www.ftadviser.com/2016/09/09/regulation/eu-legislation/hammond-to-save-bankers-from-eu-migration-curbs-mkDYpkCp73YFs8MCsWnAqK/article.html

In the tory worldview bankers need security and certainty.

Families, apparently, don't.

Not quite.

What he (or at least May) has said is that they would like to guarantee the rights, but it is contingent on the rights of British citizens living in the EU being guaranteed.

If the EU would show a willingness to be sensible this could be taken off the table very quickly.

This point is often not made. The EU have not guaranteed British residents rights either.

I think it would be reckless of HMG to surrender this card until they have.

HurstLlama said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Charles said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: MPs to debate recommissioning Britannia for Brexit trade talks next month: https://t.co/AfTmdV9JCE

How desperate can they get

From the people I've spoken to over the years, it was surprising impactful in trade. People really liked being invited onto the "Royal Yacht" for trade talks. Idiotic and superficial, but very effective and low cost branding. So why not?

Quite. Republicans in the U.K. underestimate the impact these symbols have abroad. Worth every penny in marketing Britain across the world. Even £100m isn't much when spread over 30 or 40 years.

Very true, Mr. Pit, the figures are trivial and were equally so when Brown refused the cash to replace Britannia. The decision I am sure was taken not for monetary reasons but out of spite.

To have a new Royal Yacht would be a cracking idea, not least for the reasons Mr. Charles mentions (assuming there is a shipyard in the UK capable of building such a thing), but to dig the old girl out of retirement would be a very bad idea on so many levels.

One idea I did have a few years ago was that a new yacht could be built by public subscription. The livery companies in the City are filthy rich and their members even more so. Given the right approach I think one could raise £100 million for a Royal Yacht out of the city in about a month, maybe six weeks. Crikey you could probably get that much out of the Goldsmiths alone. Open the subscription up to the wider public and there would be more than enough.

The problem would be crewing the vessel. The RN haven't got enough sailors to crew their existing ships.

The Goldsmiths spend a huge amount of money on education and training for the craft these days. We're not just sitting around counting our shekels.

On the Brittania, I've been told by someone who has been to a few soirées that an invitation to a party on the Royal Yacht was essentially impossible to turn down for anyone. It didn't matter if it was Bill Gates or Bill Clinton being invited, no one would ever turn it down.

If we are going to become a trading nation again then we'll need a method of getting people together in a way that can't be offered by any other nation. The Brittania seems a solution to me, even a new replacement for a £100-150m would be worth it.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sandpit said:

Don't disagree with any of that. Joined up decision making would give the go-ahead to LHR and HS2 at the same time, and have the railway go to the airport.

Crossrail will I think allow direct trains from Reading to Heathrow when it opens, which will allow much better access for those without a car. Some more joined up thinking would build a massive park and ride on the route - maybe somewhere West of Maidenhead, near where the A404M crosses the train line.

Yes, and also make more use of Birmingham airport, which will be less than an hour from Euston if and when HS2 is up and running.

Good point. They recently lengthened the runway there, Emirates have started flying A380s in now.

All about him, right to the end:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37384865

Charles said:

HurstLlama said:

FPT

Sandpit said:

Charles said:

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

@MrHarryCole: MPs to debate recommissioning Britannia for Brexit trade talks next month: https://t.co/AfTmdV9JCE

How desperate can they get

From the people I've spoken to over the years, it was surprising impactful in trade. People really liked being invited onto the "Royal Yacht" for trade talks. Idiotic and superficial, but very effective and low cost branding. So why not?

Quite. Republicans in the U.K. underestimate the impact these symbols have abroad. Worth every penny in marketing Britain across the world. Even £100m isn't much when spread over 30 or 40 years.

Very true, Mr. Pit, the figures are trivial and were equally so when Brown refused the cash to replace Britannia. The decision I am sure was taken not for monetary reasons but out of spite.

To have a new Royal Yacht would be a cracking idea, not least for the reasons Mr. Charles mentions (assuming there is a shipyard in the UK capable of building such a thing), but to dig the old girl out of retirement would be a very bad idea on so many levels.

One idea I did have a few years ago was that a new yacht could be built by public subscription. The livery companies in the City are filthy rich and their members even more so. Given the right approach I think one could raise £100 million for a Royal Yacht out of the city in about a month, maybe six weeks. Crikey you could probably get that much out of the Goldsmiths alone. Open the subscription up to the wider public and there would be more than enough.

The problem would be crewing the vessel. The RN haven't got enough sailors to crew their existing ships.

The Goldsmiths spend a huge amount of money on education and training for the craft these days. We're not just sitting around counting our shekels.

Have you reviewed the situation thoroughly enough to ensure your pound of flesh ?