politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The single market versus immigration: what do voters really

Speedy said:

HurstLlama said:

John_M said:

Sandpit said:

Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.

Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.

"about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

So much for the present comprehensive education system.

Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.

Speedy said:

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Perhaps what continental Europeans went through in the 20th century makes them feel that an unelected Belgian (or Pole or Irishman) making decisions on weedkiller is an entirely acceptable price to pay to prevent it happening again.

I agree about history having a marking.

For some countries it's about economic issues, in some it's social issues like history.

Eastern Europe with the exception of Greece and ex-Yugoslavia it's only about the money, they don't like europe because of memories of it's soviet counterpart, you can see the euroskeptic divide right through the former East German border, but they like the money.

Ex-yugoslavia is in to protect them from the serbs.

Greece is in to protect them from the turks.

Iberia is clearly in only for the money they get.

Germany is in it for economic dominance, as usual.

France is in it for political dominance, as usual.

Belgium for the perks of having the capital.

The Netherlands to re-export german stuff.

The baltics to protect them from the russians.

The scandinavians for a market for their high quality stuff, though they don't produce anymore.

Ireland to protect them from the english.

But no one knows why Italy is in it.

Italy is in out of the hope that Brussels is less corrupt and more competent than Rome (edit/ which I guess means that they are in to protect them from themselves, nicely completing your list with a flourish)

Kinda of an oxymoron, since Brussels these days is definitely making things worse for Italy not better.

If there is a major EU financial crisis before we leave I think it is pretty much certain that Italy will be at the centre of it. Political crises are more likely to arise on the election of some fascist somewhere.

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

John_M said:

Completely off topic. If inflation hits 3%, that's worth about £48.6bn p.a. off the national debt.

If inflation hits 2% it will be a success for the government.

And to think 40 years ago an increase in inflation would have been deemed a disaster.
We live in a different world.

Not so good for the deficit, though. At least in the short term.

Worrying about the deficit? That is so 2010-2015, grandad.

OK so you have gone full Japanese. I wonder how the story ends?

Like Japan.

If 0% interest rates, countless Q. Easings and explosive budget deficits didn't work for Japan it (surprise) won't work here or anywhere.

Interest rates that are too low to provide an incentive for investment, free money for big corporations that gives them no incentive to invest, and explosive deficits just to delay the inevitable reforms.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers?

You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?

All the best PBers are in the 20s.

Incidentally I have a score of 21.

I'm 12, which I'm fairly happy with... At least I'm not negative.

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

HurstLlama said:

John_M said:

Sandpit said:

Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.

Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.

"about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

So much for the present comprehensive education system.

Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.

I was helping my 13 year old son with his maths last night doing the areas of kites, parallelograms, rhomboids and sundry other quadrilateral shapes. If I ever knew that stuff I had long forgotten.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers?

You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?

All the best PBers are in the 20s.

Incidentally I have a score of 21.

With a score in the 20s we could also be in with a shout to be an England Test Opener.

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers?

You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?

All the best PBers are in the 20s.

Incidentally I have a score of 21.

Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

John_M said:

Completely off topic. If inflation hits 3%, that's worth about £48.6bn p.a. off the national debt.

If inflation hits 2% it will be a success for the government.

And to think 40 years ago an increase in inflation would have been deemed a disaster.
We live in a different world.

Not so good for the deficit, though. At least in the short term.

Worrying about the deficit? That is so 2010-2015, grandad.

OK so you have gone full Japanese. I wonder how the story ends?

Like Japan.

If 0% interest rates, countless Q. Easings and explosive budget deficits didn't work for Japan it (surprise) won't work here or anywhere.

Interest rates that are too low to provide an incentive for investment, free money for big corporations that gives them no incentive to invest, and explosive deficits just to delay the inevitable reforms.

I agree. But Japan has been the never ending story.

Agree, Japan has been a never ending story of decline.

Speedy said:

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

John_M said:

Completely off topic. If inflation hits 3%, that's worth about £48.6bn p.a. off the national debt.

If inflation hits 2% it will be a success for the government.

And to think 40 years ago an increase in inflation would have been deemed a disaster.
We live in a different world.

Not so good for the deficit, though. At least in the short term.

Worrying about the deficit? That is so 2010-2015, grandad.

OK so you have gone full Japanese. I wonder how the story ends?

Like Japan.

If 0% interest rates, countless Q. Easings and explosive budget deficits didn't work for Japan it (surprise) won't work here or anywhere.

Interest rates that are too low to provide an incentive for investment, free money for big corporations that gives them no incentive to invest, and explosive deficits just to delay the inevitable reforms.

I agree. But Japan has been the never ending story.

Agree, Japan has been a never ending story of decline.

But nevertheless a great investment these last few years. The companies aren't in bad shape, even as the government is beyond bust.

Thought something was up....

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/772909028850692096

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

An excellent article by Keiran Pedley. Two points in particular:

1) what if the public want the unattainable? Should the government still try for it or should they aim for more attainable goals?

2) what if the public change their minds later? The government would presumably prefer to target the public's final choice rather than their first one.

1) Try and if they fail, say we tried, we'll have to go for the attainable options

That risks complete failure, especially with a ticking clock.

But what is complete failure Alastair? If our trade relationships with the EU on day 1 post Brexit are basically WTO rules in the absence of any agreement would that be complete failure? And if so what would the consequences be?

I am slowly coming around to the idea that it might be easier to negotiate with the EU once we have left rather than before. I think that they have a somewhat distorted view of their own importance to us and that it will be very difficult to negotiate with them until we show we really don't care that much. Certainly, I think our government has to go into the talks with this as a possibility that they can live with and to plan accordingly. If they don't we won't get anywhere.

I regard hard Brexit as the default outcome. The time available, the lack of clarity or competence on both sides and the restiveness of the populations all point in that direction.

Edit: @FrancisUrquhart beat me to it.

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

HurstLlama said:

John_M said:

Sandpit said:

Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.

Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.

"about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

So much for the present comprehensive education system.

Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.

I was helping my 13 year old son with his maths last night doing the areas of kites, parallelograms, rhomboids and sundry other quadrilateral shapes. If I ever knew that stuff I had long forgotten.

My daughter begins her first OU Maths course in a couple of weeks. I'm feeling uncharacteristically intimidated - she's nominated me as tutor.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/772864881074769920

Now about that report on Antisemitism....I presume Hug a Hitler Ken will be off the naughty step soon too.

The slogan is kinda of ironic....Straight talking honest politics.

From what I've read on the subject the apologists take seems to be "it's not anti-semitism — which is obviously bad, as are most -isms — because it's all true". They aren't just spouting a load of anti-semitic nonsense to offend Jewish people, like some NF neanderthal, they actually believe this crap. So in part Labour, a small part admittedly, is now a party of genuine anti-semites in a way we haven't seen in a long time.

FrancisUrquhart said:

htps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/772909375878995970

What world is the Mail living in? A vote of confidence being something that puts pressure on someone? Pah, that was the old politics.

Tykejohnno said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers?

You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?

All the best PBers are in the 20s.

Incidentally I have a score of 21.

With a score in the 20s we could also be in with a shout to be an England Test Opener.

Talking of test openers - I think the lad has real talent and he should go.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/37281623

Plenty of teenagers have made their mark in Test Cricket, no such thing as too early if they are good enough.

MP_SE said:

The Vaz scandal is just going to run and run.

I wonder what the BBC investigative team have?

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers?

You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?

All the best PBers are in the 20s.

Incidentally I have a score of 21.

Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?

Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.

You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.

It's usually someone trying to hit 'quote', hitting 'off-topic' and forgetting. Here, OT stands for On Topic.

Danny565 said:

Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

Where do you want to start? But I presume you are being deliberately ignorant.

MP_SE said:

The Vaz scandal is just going to run and run.

In Blairs day ministers toughed it out. I remember it being remarked on here the rarity of a resignation despite everything that went on. There used to be a saying that if it lasted a few days you were fine if it ran a week or more prepare to fall on the sword.

Not sure with this bunch it that still applies anymore to any of them....

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

HurstLlama said:

John_M said:

Sandpit said:

Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.

Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.

"about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

So much for the present comprehensive education system.

Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.

I wouldn't expect many adults to be be able to do calculus or complex analysis or even elementary number theory. I am not sure I could myself these days despite being fiendishly proficient at all three once upon a time. However that is not the point in hand.

How many adults are sufficiently numerate that they could follow a discussion that involved basic numerical stuff that one would find in the newspapers or from the lips of politicians? The answer according to government figures is about 60% . That is to say 40% of the electorate, more than enough to get a government voted in on their own, haven't got the foggiest idea what those news reports and politicians' speeches actually mean.

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers?

You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?

All the best PBers are in the 20s.

Incidentally I have a score of 21.

Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?

Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.

You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.

What we need is the return of the "like" button.

It was like a more genteel twittermob.

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

Is Keiran Pedley/Mike Smithson's weekly TV show all over now ..... finished?

PS Others have mentioned it, but have we ever seen the result of PB.com's EU Referendum competition, including the name of the winner, entitled to the Wm. Hill cash prize?

No Keiran's been on holiday, and Mike's on holiday too, hence the lack of show.

I plan to publish the competition results some time this week

Oh good ...... just 11 weeks after the event!

Well you know, not much has happened in those eleven weeks.

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers?

You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?

All the best PBers are in the 20s.

Incidentally I have a score of 21.

Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?

Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.

You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.

To be fair I think most is accidental. It's like the vanilla logo in the same location / on top of the "more comments"

Quite often you get vanilla by accident. Must do wonders for their click count though but couldn't we put the Vanilla logo on the other side and leave comments on its own??

foxinsoxuk said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers?

You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?

All the best PBers are in the 20s.

Incidentally I have a score of 21.

Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?

Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.

You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.

What we need is the return of the "like" button.

It was like a more genteel twittermob.

The most likes I have ever received was pondering whether there was a difference between pantry and larder, and which was posher sounding. No need to revisit it now, but a real momentous event nevertheless.

I don't think there's an inverse correlation between access to the single market and control over immigration. You don't in other words get an equal amount of extra control over immigration for whatever you give up on the single market. The single market is somewhat binary. It's a multilateral construct as the core of the EU. You're either signed up or you're not. Now the UK will get some kind of bilateral agreement with the EU that will likely include a reciprocal arrangement on immigration. The government may be thinking they're not getting much on market access so they might as well push harder on immigration. In that case it will be a rather hard Brexit. It will be softer if both sides are prepared to fudge. There are some clues today that Theresa May would like to fudge. I'm not sure the EU side will be in a mood to do so. The EU are masters of fudge for internal agreements but the the UK is now outside the club and the EU tends to be much tougher on external parties.

@Danny565 Check your inbox.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Thought something was up....

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/772909028850692096

"Vaz: Czech to me"

Danny565 said:

Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

You really don't want to know.

But this is why he should be forced out as an MP.

When asked by one of the men whether he wanted to use a condom this time, Mr Vaz – who last year fronted a safe sex campaign in his constituency – said “No”.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/married-mp-keith-vaz-tells-8763805

Anyone who is prepared to have unprotected sex with people who are apparently sex workers, is unfit to hold public office.

It's like playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers?

You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?

All the best PBers are in the 20s.

Incidentally I have a score of 21.

Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?

Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.

You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.

Wonder no more...

Thing is do we think he is the only MP to be seeing prostitutes? Or who ever has seen a prostitute?
If so, sack him/let him resign.
If not then not.
Every MP brings some kind of baggage with them either now or in a past life which might collide with their political responsibilities I mean a standard question on Pienaar's show is about the use of drugs.

kle4 said:

Danny565 said:

Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

While in a position of significant authority leading a review into prostitution laws he is alleged to have used the services of prostitutes. And, I think, encouraged the use of illegal drugs.

But I see we're at the 'what's x done wrong' part of the cycle then.

The Guardian have this one right I think

It is true that prostitution is not illegal and politicians have a right to a private life. But, however much one sympathises with Vaz, it is undeniable that he is compromised by his special position as the chair of a commons committee tasked with making recommendations about prostitution.

Elected politicians, people responsible for making laws, must live by different standards to those who vote for them. As plenty of MPs have discovered in the past, they have to pay a price for the privileges they enjoy.

Part of that price is the need to sacrifice an absolute right to privacy

https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/sep/05/why-the-sunday-mirror-was-justified-in-exposing-keith-vaz?CMP=share_btn_tw

I don't actually have anything against the press publishing the story, but what seems really odd to me is the aghast reaction to it. I suppose I can see the argument that it's probably not appropriate for him to lead this review of prostitution laws given the "conflict of interest", but otherwise, I'm not really understanding why it's supposed to be a massive scandal which "destroys the public's trust in politicians" or whatever.

kle4 said:

Sean_F said:

foxinsoxuk said:

tyson said:

I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

Is this a politicalbetting forum or a quiddich match?

;-)

JKR Rowling doesn't understand sport. Far too many points for the snitch. That and the ridiculous generosity of Dumbledore with housepoints at the end of year feast ruin it for me. It loses all realism...

The story ought to have ended with Hermione being revealed as a Death Eater, murdering Harry and Ron, and marrying Voldemort.

Pretty sure there will be fan fiction of exactly that.

I've written something along those lines. It got a very angry review.

TOPPING said:

Thing is do we think he is the only MP to be seeing prostitutes? Or who ever has seen a prostitute?
If so, sack him/let him resign.
If not then not.
Every MP brings some kind of baggage with them either now or in a past life which might collide with their political responsibilities I mean a standard question on Pienaar's show is about the use of drugs.

It is his position as Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee that is the issue, given the nature of his activities on it and off it and his publicly professed positions through the former vs the latter.

I'd be quite happy to vote for an adulterer who has taken drugs if they did a good, uncorruptable job, and probably many other vices besides. But the specifics of his professional interests is what makes the story in the public interest and not just an indulgence in prurient curiosity.

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Danny565 said:

Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

You really don't want to know.

But this is why he should be forced out as an MP.

When asked by one of the men whether he wanted to use a condom this time, Mr Vaz – who last year fronted a safe sex campaign in his constituency – said “No”.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/married-mp-keith-vaz-tells-8763805

Anyone who is prepared to have unprotected sex with people who are apparently sex workers, is unfit to hold public office.

It's like playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.

And then go home to the wife? Ugh.

I'm the most socially liberal person in the world, it's not a moral thing.

COVER YOUR STUMP BEFORE YOU HUMP, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE SEX WORKERS

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

Danny565 said:

Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

While in a position of significant authority leading a review into prostitution laws he is alleged to have used the services of prostitutes. And, I think, encouraged the use of illegal drugs.

But I see we're at the 'what's x done wrong' part of the cycle then.

The Guardian have this one right I think

It is true that prostitution is not illegal and politicians have a right to a private life. But, however much one sympathises with Vaz, it is undeniable that he is compromised by his special position as the chair of a commons committee tasked with making recommendations about prostitution.

Elected politicians, people responsible for making laws, must live by different standards to those who vote for them. As plenty of MPs have discovered in the past, they have to pay a price for the privileges they enjoy.

Part of that price is the need to sacrifice an absolute right to privacy

https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/sep/05/why-the-sunday-mirror-was-justified-in-exposing-keith-vaz?CMP=share_btn_tw

I don't actually have anything against the press publishing the story, but what seems really odd to me is the aghast reaction to it. I suppose I can see the argument that it's probably not appropriate for him to lead this review of prostitution laws given the "conflict of interest", but otherwise, I'm not really understanding why it's supposed to be a massive scandal which "destroys the public's trust in politicians" or whatever.

Well it was obviously done covertly. His position especially as chair of the home affairs might potentially leave him open to blackmail etc. Not saying he would be compliant but it's an added risk which need not be there.

Mind you I would say he's not the only one.

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

Danny565 said:

Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

While in a position of significant authority leading a review into prostitution laws he is alleged to have used the services of prostitutes. And, I think, encouraged the use of illegal drugs.

But I see we're at the 'what's x done wrong' part of the cycle then.

The Guardian have this one right I think

It is true that prostitution is not illegal and politicians have a right to a private life. But, however much one sympathises with Vaz, it is undeniable that he is compromised by his special position as the chair of a commons committee tasked with making recommendations about prostitution.

Elected politicians, people responsible for making laws, must live by different standards to those who vote for them. As plenty of MPs have discovered in the past, they have to pay a price for the privileges they enjoy.

Part of that price is the need to sacrifice an absolute right to privacy

https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/sep/05/why-the-sunday-mirror-was-justified-in-exposing-keith-vaz?CMP=share_btn_tw

but otherwise, I'm not really understanding why it's supposed to be a massive scandal which "destroys the public's trust in politicians" or whatever.

That's just a phrase people bandy about so much it has no meaning. Even the word scandal is meaningless, along with ones like u-turn, so overused by adversaries by their presence alone you cannot assume either has actually occurred. Nevertheless, their presence does not negate that it can indeed be such a thing, and so the language may get overblown (unless much darker stuff comes to light), but can still hit on a true point*.

*I call it a PB type point.

Here's the Sun scoop...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1731834/under-fire-keith-vaz-caught-on-cctv-meeting-younger-man-at-london-hotel-as-he-battles-rent-boy-scandal/

IanB2 said:

Speedy said:

HurstLlama said:

John_M said:

Sandpit said:

Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.

Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.

"about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

So much for the present comprehensive education system.

Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.

It does make me ask the questuion "the 40 percent of adults who have less than the numerical ability expected of a 14 year old"

What numerical ability was expected of them when they were 14 ?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Here's the Sun scoop...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1731834/under-fire-keith-vaz-caught-on-cctv-meeting-younger-man-at-london-hotel-as-he-battles-rent-boy-scandal/

Do these "gifts" need to be declared?

"“He was coming in regularly and when we asked where was his booking he would just say ‘Have you spoken to Mr Sanger?’

A bar bill for the evening of 4 June shows the MP had a dinner of lemon sole, a J&B Rare whisky and bottle of still water for £54.95. At the foot of the receipt a note reads: “As per Mr J. Sanger.”"

This has probably already been covered but I've only just noticed it, but this plan to revert to an elected shadow cabinet? Does that make a split even less likely, as no matter how much they oppose Corbyn people can claim to be serving the party and not his leadership of it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

MP_SE said:

The Vaz scandal is just going to run and run.

I wonder what the BBC investigative team have?

The willies?

I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

FrancisUrquhart said:

Moses_ said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

MP_SE said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Here's the Sun scoop...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1731834/under-fire-keith-vaz-caught-on-cctv-meeting-younger-man-at-london-hotel-as-he-battles-rent-boy-scandal/

Do these "gifts" need to be declared?

"“He was coming in regularly and when we asked where was his booking he would just say ‘Have you spoken to Mr Sanger?’

A bar bill for the evening of 4 June shows the MP had a dinner of lemon sole, a J&B Rare whisky and bottle of still water for £54.95. At the foot of the receipt a note reads: “As per Mr J. Sanger.”"

Awkward....

"bottle of still water for £54.95" - Crickey London prices really are out of hand.

He puts whiskey in the fridge FFS.

Mind you one has to ask if the rent boys bother to clean behind the fridge?

Well thats it...Whiskey in the fridge....he must be removed from parliament for that.

Unfit for public office !!

John_M said:

People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.

I don't think the author of the poll understands what a single market is either. It isn't a sensible question to ask. I think he took the throw away remark trotted out by the Germans: No cherry picking, you don't get the single market unless you accept the conditions including freedom of movement. He then concocted a question: how many cherries are you prepared to concede?

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

Is this correct? If so, I missed this announcement.

Yeah, I posted on the earlier thread.

Legal letters are flying about. All posts now have to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.

Heard and understood. Although I don't think any of my posts have made any claims that are not in the mainstream newspapers.

Thanks, I know no one wants to get Mike into trouble, I think it is easier if we all err on the side of caution.

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

Is this correct? If so, I missed this announcement.

Yeah, I posted on the earlier thread.

Legal letters are flying about. All posts now have to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.

Ok ...

TheScreamingEagles said:

As I understand it, Keith Vaz has already issued legal letters to a fellow MP.

I saw that, quite incredible.

One thing I m glad to see the Mirror doing is calling them "prostitutes". I find the phrase "rent boy" rather horrible.

Moses_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

Is this correct? If so, I missed this announcement.

Yeah, I posted on the earlier thread.

Legal letters are flying about. All posts now have to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.

Ok ...

Married man plays away from home is one story. Horrible for wife and family and arguably in the public interest. The justification for this can be a bit thin at times.

It's what else the newspapers have, which is not published but where some pretty obvious clues are in front of your eyes, which is usually of more interest. The reaction of other politicians - if the "scandal" is about a politician - can also give you a clue.