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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The single market versus immigration: what do voters really

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  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

    People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.
    Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

    Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.
    "about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

    So much for the present comprehensive education system.
    Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    I would think it's more likely to be something to do with how frequently you post and how many "Off Topic" and SPAM notifications you have?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571
    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:



    Perhaps what continental Europeans went through in the 20th century makes them feel that an unelected Belgian (or Pole or Irishman) making decisions on weedkiller is an entirely acceptable price to pay to prevent it happening again.

    I agree about history having a marking.

    For some countries it's about economic issues, in some it's social issues like history.

    Eastern Europe with the exception of Greece and ex-Yugoslavia it's only about the money, they don't like europe because of memories of it's soviet counterpart, you can see the euroskeptic divide right through the former East German border, but they like the money.

    Ex-yugoslavia is in to protect them from the serbs.

    Greece is in to protect them from the turks.

    Iberia is clearly in only for the money they get.

    Germany is in it for economic dominance, as usual.

    France is in it for political dominance, as usual.

    Belgium for the perks of having the capital.

    The Netherlands to re-export german stuff.

    The baltics to protect them from the russians.

    The scandinavians for a market for their high quality stuff, though they don't produce anymore.

    Ireland to protect them from the english.

    But no one knows why Italy is in it.
    Italy is in out of the hope that Brussels is less corrupt and more competent than Rome (edit/ which I guess means that they are in to protect them from themselves, nicely completing your list with a flourish)
    Kinda of an oxymoron, since Brussels these days is definitely making things worse for Italy not better.
    If there is a major EU financial crisis before we leave I think it is pretty much certain that Italy will be at the centre of it. Political crises are more likely to arise on the election of some fascist somewhere.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Completely off topic. If inflation hits 3%, that's worth about £48.6bn p.a. off the national debt.

    If inflation hits 2% it will be a success for the government.

    And to think 40 years ago an increase in inflation would have been deemed a disaster.
    We live in a different world.
    Not so good for the deficit, though. At least in the short term.
    Worrying about the deficit? That is so 2010-2015, grandad.
    OK so you have gone full Japanese. I wonder how the story ends?
    Like Japan.

    If 0% interest rates, countless Q. Easings and explosive budget deficits didn't work for Japan it (surprise) won't work here or anywhere.

    Interest rates that are too low to provide an incentive for investment, free money for big corporations that gives them no incentive to invest, and explosive deficits just to delay the inevitable reforms.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Is this a politicalbetting forum or a quiddich match?

    ;-)

    JKR Rowling doesn't understand sport. Far too many points for the snitch. That and the ridiculous generosity of Dumbledore with housepoints at the end of year feast ruin it for me. It loses all realism...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Completely off topic. If inflation hits 3%, that's worth about £48.6bn p.a. off the national debt.

    If inflation hits 2% it will be a success for the government.

    And to think 40 years ago an increase in inflation would have been deemed a disaster.
    We live in a different world.
    Not so good for the deficit, though. At least in the short term.
    Worrying about the deficit? That is so 2010-2015, grandad.
    OK so you have gone full Japanese. I wonder how the story ends?
    Like Japan.

    If 0% interest rates, countless Q. Easings and explosive budget deficits didn't work for Japan it (surprise) won't work here or anywhere.

    Interest rates that are too low to provide an incentive for investment, free money for big corporations that gives them no incentive to invest, and explosive deficits just to delay the inevitable reforms.
    I agree. But Japan has been the never ending story.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited September 2016

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    I'm 12, which I'm fairly happy with... At least I'm not negative.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571
    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

    People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.
    Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

    Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.
    "about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

    So much for the present comprehensive education system.
    Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.
    I was helping my 13 year old son with his maths last night doing the areas of kites, parallelograms, rhomboids and sundry other quadrilateral shapes. If I ever knew that stuff I had long forgotten.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Is this a politicalbetting forum or a quiddich match?

    ;-)

    JKR Rowling doesn't understand sport. Far too many points for the snitch. That and the ridiculous generosity of Dumbledore with housepoints at the end of year feast ruin it for me. It loses all realism...
    Yeah, Dumbledore and Quidditch both promote the message you can laze about 99% of the time, so long as you do something well for the final 1% you win and everyone else's effort was pointless. A classic chosen one ethos denigrating those who follow rules and work hard.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    With a score in the 20s we could also be in with a shout to be an England Test Opener.
  • Options
    Poor Cedric Diggory.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571
    kle4 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Is this a politicalbetting forum or a quiddich match?

    ;-)

    JKR Rowling doesn't understand sport. Far too many points for the snitch. That and the ridiculous generosity of Dumbledore with housepoints at the end of year feast ruin it for me. It loses all realism...
    Yeah, Dumbledore and Quidditch both promote the message you can laze about 99% of the time, so long as you do something well for the final 1% you win and everyone else's effort was pointless. A classic chosen one ethos denigrating those who follow rules and work hard.
    Try telling Big Sam that there is anything wrong with that.
  • Options
    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Completely off topic. If inflation hits 3%, that's worth about £48.6bn p.a. off the national debt.

    If inflation hits 2% it will be a success for the government.

    And to think 40 years ago an increase in inflation would have been deemed a disaster.
    We live in a different world.
    Not so good for the deficit, though. At least in the short term.
    Worrying about the deficit? That is so 2010-2015, grandad.
    OK so you have gone full Japanese. I wonder how the story ends?
    Like Japan.

    If 0% interest rates, countless Q. Easings and explosive budget deficits didn't work for Japan it (surprise) won't work here or anywhere.

    Interest rates that are too low to provide an incentive for investment, free money for big corporations that gives them no incentive to invest, and explosive deficits just to delay the inevitable reforms.
    I agree. But Japan has been the never ending story.
    Agree, Japan has been a never ending story of decline.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited September 2016
    IanB2 said:

    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

    People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.
    Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

    Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.
    Indeed Mr L. as I wrote this week, even the illustrious brains trust of PB, surely some of the UK's finest minds have, on occasion, found it difficult to cudgel some of the concepts into
    some semblance of rationality and order.
    Since you don't need great vision and depth of understanding in order to be a candidate, or even be elected, it would be a funny world if the criteria for being allowed to make a choice were the more stringent?
    I think my point was more that even the people on this board are not immune to the Dunning-Kruger effect when dealing with matters outside their competence.

    Given what we collectively know, nobody would make the grade of 'informed voter'.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    edited September 2016
    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Completely off topic. If inflation hits 3%, that's worth about £48.6bn p.a. off the national debt.

    If inflation hits 2% it will be a success for the government.

    And to think 40 years ago an increase in inflation would have been deemed a disaster.
    We live in a different world.
    Not so good for the deficit, though. At least in the short term.
    Worrying about the deficit? That is so 2010-2015, grandad.
    OK so you have gone full Japanese. I wonder how the story ends?
    Like Japan.

    If 0% interest rates, countless Q. Easings and explosive budget deficits didn't work for Japan it (surprise) won't work here or anywhere.

    Interest rates that are too low to provide an incentive for investment, free money for big corporations that gives them no incentive to invest, and explosive deficits just to delay the inevitable reforms.
    I agree. But Japan has been the never ending story.
    Agree, Japan has been a never ending story of decline.
    But nevertheless a great investment these last few years. The companies aren't in bad shape, even as the government is beyond bust.
  • Options
    Keiran makes a brave stab at arguing away what voters voted for, but the fact is plain: they were told, in clear terms, by pretty much every well-qualified expert, both domestic and foreign, that there would be a significant economic hit to Brexit. The Leave side argued the case, using immigration as their principal (and certainly most effective) argument. Leave won. So I don't think Keiran is right to say 'We don’t know what voters think ‘control’ means or what level of economic burden they are willing to bear to achieve it.' On the contrary, we know exactly what they decided, having been told the likely economic consequences. The May government needs, first and foremost, to respect the decision, and then to get the best economic deal that is compatible with it.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited September 2016
  • Options
    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    With a score in the 20s we could also be in with a shout to be an England Test Opener.
    Talking of test openers - I think the lad has real talent and he should go.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/37281623
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    An excellent article by Keiran Pedley. Two points in particular:

    1) what if the public want the unattainable? Should the government still try for it or should they aim for more attainable goals?

    2) what if the public change their minds later? The government would presumably prefer to target the public's final choice rather than their first one.

    1) Try and if they fail, say we tried, we'll have to go for the attainable options
    That risks complete failure, especially with a ticking clock.
    But what is complete failure Alastair? If our trade relationships with the EU on day 1 post Brexit are basically WTO rules in the absence of any agreement would that be complete failure? And if so what would the consequences be?

    I am slowly coming around to the idea that it might be easier to negotiate with the EU once we have left rather than before. I think that they have a somewhat distorted view of their own importance to us and that it will be very difficult to negotiate with them until we show we really don't care that much. Certainly, I think our government has to go into the talks with this as a possibility that they can live with and to plan accordingly. If they don't we won't get anywhere.
    I regard hard Brexit as the default outcome. The time available, the lack of clarity or competence on both sides and the restiveness of the populations all point in that direction.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited September 2016
    Edit: @FrancisUrquhart beat me to it.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?
    Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited September 2016
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

    People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.
    Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

    Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.
    "about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

    So much for the present comprehensive education system.
    Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.
    I was helping my 13 year old son with his maths last night doing the areas of kites, parallelograms, rhomboids and sundry other quadrilateral shapes. If I ever knew that stuff I had long forgotten.
    My daughter begins her first OU Maths course in a couple of weeks. I'm feeling uncharacteristically intimidated - she's nominated me as tutor.
  • Options
    Is Keiran Pedley/Mike Smithson's weekly TV show all over now ..... finished?

    PS Others have mentioned it, but have we ever seen the result of PB.com's EU Referendum competition, including the name of the winner, entitled to the Wm. Hill cash prize?
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,556

    Now about that report on Antisemitism....I presume Hug a Hitler Ken will be off the naughty step soon too.

    The slogan is kinda of ironic....Straight talking honest politics.
    From what I've read on the subject the apologists take seems to be "it's not anti-semitism — which is obviously bad, as are most -isms — because it's all true". They aren't just spouting a load of anti-semitic nonsense to offend Jewish people, like some NF neanderthal, they actually believe this crap. So in part Labour, a small part admittedly, is now a party of genuine anti-semites in a way we haven't seen in a long time.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    edited September 2016
    Looks like The Times are going for Vaz and his wife on the angle he owns at least seven homes worth .....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137

    htps://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/772909375878995970

    What world is the Mail living in? A vote of confidence being something that puts pressure on someone? Pah, that was the old politics.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    The Vaz scandal is just going to run and run.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    With a score in the 20s we could also be in with a shout to be an England Test Opener.
    Talking of test openers - I think the lad has real talent and he should go.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/37281623
    Plenty of teenagers have made their mark in Test Cricket, no such thing as too early if they are good enough.
  • Options

    Is Keiran Pedley/Mike Smithson's weekly TV show all over now ..... finished?

    PS Others have mentioned it, but have we ever seen the result of PB.com's EU Referendum competition, including the name of the winner, entitled to the Wm. Hill cash prize?

    No Keiran's been on holiday, and Mike's on holiday too, hence the lack of show.

    I plan to publish the competition results some time this week
  • Options
    MP_SE said:

    The Vaz scandal is just going to run and run.

    I wonder what the BBC investigative team have?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?
    Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.
    You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?
    Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.
    You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.
    It's usually someone trying to hit 'quote', hitting 'off-topic' and forgetting. Here, OT stands for On Topic.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited September 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    Where do you want to start? But I presume you are being deliberately ignorant.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571

    DavidL said:

    1) Try and if they fail, say we tried, we'll have to go for the attainable options
    That risks complete failure, especially with a ticking clock.
    But what is complete failure Alastair? If our trade relationships with the EU on day 1 post Brexit are basically WTO rules in the absence of any agreement would that be complete failure? And if so what would the consequences be?

    I am slowly coming around to the idea that it might be easier to negotiate with the EU once we have left rather than before. I think that they have a somewhat distorted view of their own importance to us and that it will be very difficult to negotiate with them until we show we really don't care that much. Certainly, I think our government has to go into the talks with this as a possibility that they can live with and to plan accordingly. If they don't we won't get anywhere.
    I regard hard Brexit as the default outcome. The time available, the lack of clarity or competence on both sides and the restiveness of the populations all point in that direction.
    I increasingly agree. And there will come a point all too soon when even a hard Brexit is better than never ending uncertainty.

    As I say once we are out it will so clearly be in both parties' interests that sector by sector deals will come into place.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    MP_SE said:

    The Vaz scandal is just going to run and run.

    In Blairs day ministers toughed it out. I remember it being remarked on here the rarity of a resignation despite everything that went on. There used to be a saying that if it lasted a few days you were fine if it ran a week or more prepare to fall on the sword.

    Not sure with this bunch it that still applies anymore to any of them....
  • Options

    Is Keiran Pedley/Mike Smithson's weekly TV show all over now ..... finished?

    PS Others have mentioned it, but have we ever seen the result of PB.com's EU Referendum competition, including the name of the winner, entitled to the Wm. Hill cash prize?

    No Keiran's been on holiday, and Mike's on holiday too, hence the lack of show.

    I plan to publish the competition results some time this week
    Oh good ...... just 11 weeks after the event!
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

    People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.
    Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

    Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.
    "about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

    So much for the present comprehensive education system.
    Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.
    I wouldn't expect many adults to be be able to do calculus or complex analysis or even elementary number theory. I am not sure I could myself these days despite being fiendishly proficient at all three once upon a time. However that is not the point in hand.

    How many adults are sufficiently numerate that they could follow a discussion that involved basic numerical stuff that one would find in the newspapers or from the lips of politicians? The answer according to government figures is about 60% . That is to say 40% of the electorate, more than enough to get a government voted in on their own, haven't got the foggiest idea what those news reports and politicians' speeches actually mean.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571
    John_M said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

    People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.
    Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

    Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.
    "about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

    So much for the present comprehensive education system.
    Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.
    I was helping my 13 year old son with his maths last night doing the areas of kites, parallelograms, rhomboids and sundry other quadrilateral shapes. If I ever knew that stuff I had long forgotten.
    My daughter begins her first OU Maths course in a couple of weeks. I'm feeling uncharacteristically intimidated - she's nominated me as tutor.
    Gosh, that would be intimidating. I enjoyed learning (relearning) my more basic maths. It had an elegance about it that I did not appreciate or see when at school.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?
    Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.
    You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.
    What we need is the return of the "like" button.

    It was like a more genteel twittermob.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    While in a position of significant authority leading a review into prostitution laws he is alleged to have used the services of prostitutes. And, I think, encouraged the use of illegal drugs.

    But I see we're at the 'what's x done wrong' part of the cycle then.

    The Guardian have this one right I think

    It is true that prostitution is not illegal and politicians have a right to a private life. But, however much one sympathises with Vaz, it is undeniable that he is compromised by his special position as the chair of a commons committee tasked with making recommendations about prostitution.

    Elected politicians, people responsible for making laws, must live by different standards to those who vote for them. As plenty of MPs have discovered in the past, they have to pay a price for the privileges they enjoy.

    Part of that price is the need to sacrifice an absolute right to privacy


    https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/sep/05/why-the-sunday-mirror-was-justified-in-exposing-keith-vaz?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • Options

    Is Keiran Pedley/Mike Smithson's weekly TV show all over now ..... finished?

    PS Others have mentioned it, but have we ever seen the result of PB.com's EU Referendum competition, including the name of the winner, entitled to the Wm. Hill cash prize?

    No Keiran's been on holiday, and Mike's on holiday too, hence the lack of show.

    I plan to publish the competition results some time this week
    Oh good ...... just 11 weeks after the event!
    Well you know, not much has happened in those eleven weeks.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited September 2016
    Moses_ said:

    MP_SE said:

    The Vaz scandal is just going to run and run.

    In Blairs day ministers toughed it out. I remember it being remarked on here the rarity of a resignation despite everything that went on. There used to be a saying that if it lasted a few days you were fine if it ran a week or more prepare to fall on the sword.

    Not sure with this bunch it that still applies anymore to any of them....
    I remember there was this minster and the story of the dodgy passports which weren't enough to get him to resign....Jim somebody or other.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?
    Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.
    You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.
    To be fair I think most is accidental. It's like the vanilla logo in the same location / on top of the "more comments"

    Quite often you get vanilla by accident. Must do wonders for their click count though but couldn't we put the Vanilla logo on the other side and leave comments on its own??
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sharper divide than I would have thought. Medium hard Brexit a more likely result than Medium soft Brexit.

    James seems to think we're leaving the single market and the cutoms union?



    What has become clear in the last week or so, is that the UK is not going to end up staying in the single market—in either the EU or the EEA. Davis’s appearance today also suggested that the UK would leave the customs union when it left the EU. However, it is also becoming apparent that the UK relationship with the EU on matters such as security means that post-Brexit, the UK and the EU will have more than just a trading relationship.



    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/clues-david-davis-means-brexit/
    Am I alone in still being worried that someone as pratty as David Davis is destined to play such a major role in this?
    Could be worse.

    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/772907668101095424
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?
    Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.
    You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.
    What we need is the return of the "like" button.

    It was like a more genteel twittermob.
    The most likes I have ever received was pondering whether there was a difference between pantry and larder, and which was posher sounding. No need to revisit it now, but a real momentous event nevertheless.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Is this a politicalbetting forum or a quiddich match?

    ;-)

    JKR Rowling doesn't understand sport. Far too many points for the snitch. That and the ridiculous generosity of Dumbledore with housepoints at the end of year feast ruin it for me. It loses all realism...
    The story ought to have ended with Hermione being revealed as a Death Eater, murdering Harry and Ron, and marrying Voldemort.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,883
    edited September 2016
    I don't think there's an inverse correlation between access to the single market and control over immigration. You don't in other words get an equal amount of extra control over immigration for whatever you give up on the single market. The single market is somewhat binary. It's a multilateral construct as the core of the EU. You're either signed up or you're not. Now the UK will get some kind of bilateral agreement with the EU that will likely include a reciprocal arrangement on immigration. The government may be thinking they're not getting much on market access so they might as well push harder on immigration. In that case it will be a rather hard Brexit. It will be softer if both sides are prepared to fudge. There are some clues today that Theresa May would like to fudge. I'm not sure the EU side will be in a mood to do so. The EU are masters of fudge for internal agreements but the the UK is now outside the club and the EU tends to be much tougher on external parties.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    Where do you want to start? But I presume you are being deliberately ignorant.
    Not really. I've not been following the ins and outs, but I'm genuinely interested to know what he's done that's supposed to be immoral or unethical or whatever (any more than, for example, JJohn Whittingdale and the Dominatrix).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    @Danny565 Check your inbox.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571

    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

    People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.
    Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

    Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.
    "about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

    So much for the present comprehensive education system.
    Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.
    I wouldn't expect many adults to be be able to do calculus or complex analysis or even elementary number theory. I am not sure I could myself these days despite being fiendishly proficient at all three once upon a time. However that is not the point in hand.

    How many adults are sufficiently numerate that they could follow a discussion that involved basic numerical stuff that one would find in the newspapers or from the lips of politicians? The answer according to government figures is about 60% . That is to say 40% of the electorate, more than enough to get a government voted in on their own, haven't got the foggiest idea what those news reports and politicians' speeches actually mean.
    But that means that 10% of the Scottish population do understand the numbers and still vote SNP. How weird is that?
  • Options
    "Vaz: Czech to me"
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    Sean_F said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Is this a politicalbetting forum or a quiddich match?

    ;-)

    JKR Rowling doesn't understand sport. Far too many points for the snitch. That and the ridiculous generosity of Dumbledore with housepoints at the end of year feast ruin it for me. It loses all realism...
    The story ought to have ended with Hermione being revealed as a Death Eater, murdering Harry and Ron, and marrying Voldemort.
    Pretty sure there will be fan fiction of exactly that.
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    Wellllll.... Look at it this way.

    Close your eyes , clear your mind and just for a moment Imagine he was a Tory MP sitting as chair of the home affairs committee..........
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    edited September 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    You really don't want to know.

    But this is why he should be forced out as an MP.

    When asked by one of the men whether he wanted to use a condom this time, Mr Vaz – who last year fronted a safe sex campaign in his constituency – said “No”.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/married-mp-keith-vaz-tells-8763805

    Anyone who is prepared to have unprotected sex with people who are apparently sex workers, is unfit to hold public office.

    It's like playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?
    Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.
    You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.
    Wonder no more...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    You really don't want to know.

    But this is why he should be forced out as an MP.

    When asked by one of the men whether he wanted to use a condom this time, Mr Vaz – who last year fronted a safe sex campaign in his constituency – said “No”.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/married-mp-keith-vaz-tells-8763805

    Anyone who is prepared to have unprotected sex with people who are apparently sex workers, is unfit to hold public office.

    It's like playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.
    And then go home to the wife? Ugh.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    Thing is do we think he is the only MP to be seeing prostitutes? Or who ever has seen a prostitute?
    If so, sack him/let him resign.
    If not then not.
    Every MP brings some kind of baggage with them either now or in a past life which might collide with their political responsibilities I mean a standard question on Pienaar's show is about the use of drugs.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited September 2016
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    Where do you want to start? But I presume you are being deliberately ignorant.
    Not really. I've not been following the ins and outs, but I'm genuinely interested to know what he's done that's supposed to be immoral or unethical or whatever (any more than, for example, JJohn Whittingdale and the Dominatrix).
    Offering to buy drugs, alleged misappropriating charity funds, hypocritical positions public vs private...I could continue...
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    While in a position of significant authority leading a review into prostitution laws he is alleged to have used the services of prostitutes. And, I think, encouraged the use of illegal drugs.

    But I see we're at the 'what's x done wrong' part of the cycle then.

    The Guardian have this one right I think

    It is true that prostitution is not illegal and politicians have a right to a private life. But, however much one sympathises with Vaz, it is undeniable that he is compromised by his special position as the chair of a commons committee tasked with making recommendations about prostitution.

    Elected politicians, people responsible for making laws, must live by different standards to those who vote for them. As plenty of MPs have discovered in the past, they have to pay a price for the privileges they enjoy.

    Part of that price is the need to sacrifice an absolute right to privacy


    https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/sep/05/why-the-sunday-mirror-was-justified-in-exposing-keith-vaz?CMP=share_btn_tw
    I don't actually have anything against the press publishing the story, but what seems really odd to me is the aghast reaction to it. I suppose I can see the argument that it's probably not appropriate for him to lead this review of prostitution laws given the "conflict of interest", but otherwise, I'm not really understanding why it's supposed to be a massive scandal which "destroys the public's trust in politicians" or whatever.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,594
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Maybe you could try being a little nicer to your fellow PB'ers? :)
    You get points for being nice? So why I am I stuck in the paltry 20s? Have I wasted courtesy on this band of filth mongers and smut peddlers?
    All the best PBers are in the 20s.

    Incidentally I have a score of 21.
    Simply because for some reason your posts cannot actually be flagged as spam?
    Yup, one of the perks of being an administrator.
    You also have to wonder, given the range of discussion material on here, what on earth one has to talk about to be flagged off-topic.
    Wonder no more...
    LOL!!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    kle4 said:

    Sean_F said:

    tyson said:

    I've just looked at my point score on the vanilla thing (I didn't realise you get points...who gives them and for what?).....my score is-2. It seems a travesty- for indicating that Brexit people are ridiculous and for taking a stand against YUP's and silly smiley faces, I deserve some points. At least 23, maybe one or two, maybe more, by my reckoning.

    Is this a politicalbetting forum or a quiddich match?

    ;-)

    JKR Rowling doesn't understand sport. Far too many points for the snitch. That and the ridiculous generosity of Dumbledore with housepoints at the end of year feast ruin it for me. It loses all realism...
    The story ought to have ended with Hermione being revealed as a Death Eater, murdering Harry and Ron, and marrying Voldemort.
    Pretty sure there will be fan fiction of exactly that.
    I've written something along those lines. It got a very angry review.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited September 2016
    Mirror calling Jim Keith a liar lair pants on fire...

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/772913870373543936
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    TOPPING said:

    Thing is do we think he is the only MP to be seeing prostitutes? Or who ever has seen a prostitute?
    If so, sack him/let him resign.
    If not then not.
    Every MP brings some kind of baggage with them either now or in a past life which might collide with their political responsibilities I mean a standard question on Pienaar's show is about the use of drugs.

    It is his position as Chair of the Home Affairs Select Committee that is the issue, given the nature of his activities on it and off it and his publicly professed positions through the former vs the latter.

    I'd be quite happy to vote for an adulterer who has taken drugs if they did a good, uncorruptable job, and probably many other vices besides. But the specifics of his professional interests is what makes the story in the public interest and not just an indulgence in prurient curiosity.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    An excellent article by Keiran Pedley. Two points in particular:

    1) what if the public want the unattainable? Should the government still try for it or should they aim for more attainable goals?

    2) what if the public change their minds later? The government would presumably prefer to target the public's final choice rather than their first one.

    1) Try and if they fail, say we tried, we'll have to go for the attainable options
    That risks complete failure, especially with a ticking clock.
    But what is complete failure Alastair? If our trade relationships with the EU on day 1 post Brexit are basically WTO rules in the absence of any agreement would that be complete failure? And if so what would the consequences be?

    I am slowly coming around to the idea that it might be easier to negotiate with the EU once we have left rather than before. I think that they have a somewhat distorted view of their own importance to us and that it will be very difficult to negotiate with them until we show we really don't care that much. Certainly, I think our government has to go into the talks with this as a possibility that they can live with and to plan accordingly. If they don't we won't get anywhere.

    The Single Market means it's as easy to do business in Berlin as it is Birmingham. That's not just about tariffs. In fact for many tariffs have very little to do with it. Once we're out of it, there's no negotiating our way back in - either in whole or in part. I am not close to being convinced that Boris, David and Liam actually know what the Single Market is.

  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    You really don't want to know.

    But this is why he should be forced out as an MP.

    When asked by one of the men whether he wanted to use a condom this time, Mr Vaz – who last year fronted a safe sex campaign in his constituency – said “No”.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/married-mp-keith-vaz-tells-8763805

    Anyone who is prepared to have unprotected sex with people who are apparently sex workers, is unfit to hold public office.

    It's like playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.
    And then go home to the wife? Ugh.
    I'm the most socially liberal person in the world, it's not a moral thing.

    COVER YOUR STUMP BEFORE YOU HUMP, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE SEX WORKERS
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited September 2016
    Looks like the decorators drugged me excuse is a bust...

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/keith-vaz-tapes-prove-not-8774666

    also..

    "He jokingly urged them to rebuke the fourth man who never arrived and whom the Mirror is not naming,"

    I wonder, I wonder, I wonder..
  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    While in a position of significant authority leading a review into prostitution laws he is alleged to have used the services of prostitutes. And, I think, encouraged the use of illegal drugs.

    But I see we're at the 'what's x done wrong' part of the cycle then.

    The Guardian have this one right I think

    It is true that prostitution is not illegal and politicians have a right to a private life. But, however much one sympathises with Vaz, it is undeniable that he is compromised by his special position as the chair of a commons committee tasked with making recommendations about prostitution.

    Elected politicians, people responsible for making laws, must live by different standards to those who vote for them. As plenty of MPs have discovered in the past, they have to pay a price for the privileges they enjoy.

    Part of that price is the need to sacrifice an absolute right to privacy


    https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/sep/05/why-the-sunday-mirror-was-justified-in-exposing-keith-vaz?CMP=share_btn_tw
    I don't actually have anything against the press publishing the story, but what seems really odd to me is the aghast reaction to it. I suppose I can see the argument that it's probably not appropriate for him to lead this review of prostitution laws given the "conflict of interest", but otherwise, I'm not really understanding why it's supposed to be a massive scandal which "destroys the public's trust in politicians" or whatever.
    Well it was obviously done covertly. His position especially as chair of the home affairs might potentially leave him open to blackmail etc. Not saying he would be compliant but it's an added risk which need not be there.

    Mind you I would say he's not the only one.
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    Looks like the decorators drugged me excuse is a bust...

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/keith-vaz-tapes-prove-not-8774666

    Bloody hell

    Extracts from the night where Mr Vaz vowed to “get this party started” highlight how the former Europe Minister directed events - and was in complete control as be ordered the prostitutes what to do.

    Many details are too graphic to publish in a family newspaper.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    edited September 2016
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    While in a position of significant authority leading a review into prostitution laws he is alleged to have used the services of prostitutes. And, I think, encouraged the use of illegal drugs.

    But I see we're at the 'what's x done wrong' part of the cycle then.

    The Guardian have this one right I think

    It is true that prostitution is not illegal and politicians have a right to a private life. But, however much one sympathises with Vaz, it is undeniable that he is compromised by his special position as the chair of a commons committee tasked with making recommendations about prostitution.

    Elected politicians, people responsible for making laws, must live by different standards to those who vote for them. As plenty of MPs have discovered in the past, they have to pay a price for the privileges they enjoy.

    Part of that price is the need to sacrifice an absolute right to privacy


    https://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2016/sep/05/why-the-sunday-mirror-was-justified-in-exposing-keith-vaz?CMP=share_btn_tw
    but otherwise, I'm not really understanding why it's supposed to be a massive scandal which "destroys the public's trust in politicians" or whatever.
    That's just a phrase people bandy about so much it has no meaning. Even the word scandal is meaningless, along with ones like u-turn, so overused by adversaries by their presence alone you cannot assume either has actually occurred. Nevertheless, their presence does not negate that it can indeed be such a thing, and so the language may get overblown (unless much darker stuff comes to light), but can still hit on a true point*.

    *I call it a PB type point.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571

    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Sharper divide than I would have thought. Medium hard Brexit a more likely result than Medium soft Brexit.

    James seems to think we're leaving the single market and the cutoms union?



    What has become clear in the last week or so, is that the UK is not going to end up staying in the single market—in either the EU or the EEA. Davis’s appearance today also suggested that the UK would leave the customs union when it left the EU. However, it is also becoming apparent that the UK relationship with the EU on matters such as security means that post-Brexit, the UK and the EU will have more than just a trading relationship.



    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/09/clues-david-davis-means-brexit/
    Am I alone in still being worried that someone as pratty as David Davis is destined to play such a major role in this?
    Could be worse.

    https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/772907668101095424
    Someone who clearly did not pay a lot of attention in the referendum then. Dunning-Kruger indeed.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    You really don't want to know.

    But this is why he should be forced out as an MP.

    When asked by one of the men whether he wanted to use a condom this time, Mr Vaz – who last year fronted a safe sex campaign in his constituency – said “No”.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/married-mp-keith-vaz-tells-8763805

    Anyone who is prepared to have unprotected sex with people who are apparently sex workers, is unfit to hold public office.

    It's like playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.
    And then go home to the wife? Ugh.
    I'm the most socially liberal person in the world, it's not a moral thing.

    COVER YOUR STUMP BEFORE YOU HUMP, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE SEX WORKERS
    Maybe the risk of contracting AIDS was part of the thrill.
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    IanB2 said:

    Speedy said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    Thanks Kieran, good article on presentation of polling questions, always worth remembering when looking at 'headline' figures from someone with skin in the game.

    People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.
    Let us face it, Mr. M, a great part of the electorate are absolutely clueless about just about everything and especially anything involving numbers (about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds, which means that any discussion involving percentages goes straight over their heads).

    Yet we are all supposed to pretend that universal suffrage is such a spiffing idea.
    "about 40% of adults have less than the numerical ability expected of 14 year olds"

    So much for the present comprehensive education system.
    Since very few people do any serious maths after GCSE, and many don't even get that far, it is hardly surprising that mid teenage represents peak maths. I have worked with numbers for most of my career but there are nevertheless aspects of maths that I could do then, but not now.
    It does make me ask the questuion "the 40 percent of adults who have less than the numerical ability expected of a 14 year old"

    What numerical ability was expected of them when they were 14 ?
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    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    You really don't want to know.

    But this is why he should be forced out as an MP.

    When asked by one of the men whether he wanted to use a condom this time, Mr Vaz – who last year fronted a safe sex campaign in his constituency – said “No”.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/married-mp-keith-vaz-tells-8763805

    Anyone who is prepared to have unprotected sex with people who are apparently sex workers, is unfit to hold public office.

    It's like playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.
    And then go home to the wife? Ugh.
    I'm the most socially liberal person in the world, it's not a moral thing.

    COVER YOUR STUMP BEFORE YOU HUMP, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE SEX WORKERS
    Maybe the risk of contracting AIDS was part of the thrill.
    How the hell is that a thrill?

    I thought the most thrilling part of coitus was climaxing. Can't beat that.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Do these "gifts" need to be declared?

    "“He was coming in regularly and when we asked where was his booking he would just say ‘Have you spoken to Mr Sanger?’

    A bar bill for the evening of 4 June shows the MP had a dinner of lemon sole, a J&B Rare whisky and bottle of still water for £54.95. At the foot of the receipt a note reads: “As per Mr J. Sanger.”"
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    MP_SE said:

    Do these "gifts" need to be declared?

    "“He was coming in regularly and when we asked where was his booking he would just say ‘Have you spoken to Mr Sanger?’

    A bar bill for the evening of 4 June shows the MP had a dinner of lemon sole, a J&B Rare whisky and bottle of still water for £54.95. At the foot of the receipt a note reads: “As per Mr J. Sanger.”"
    Awkward....

    "bottle of still water for £54.95" - Crickey London prices really are out of hand.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,137
    This has probably already been covered but I've only just noticed it, but this plan to revert to an elected shadow cabinet? Does that make a split even less likely, as no matter how much they oppose Corbyn people can claim to be serving the party and not his leadership of it.
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    kle4 said:

    This has probably already been covered but I've only just noticed it, but this plan to revert to an elected shadow cabinet? Does that make a split even less likely, as no matter how much they oppose Corbyn people can claim to be serving the party and not his leadership of it.

    It is what the morning thread is on.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    MP_SE said:

    The Vaz scandal is just going to run and run.

    I wonder what the BBC investigative team have?
    The willies?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    MP_SE said:

    Do these "gifts" need to be declared?

    "“He was coming in regularly and when we asked where was his booking he would just say ‘Have you spoken to Mr Sanger?’

    A bar bill for the evening of 4 June shows the MP had a dinner of lemon sole, a J&B Rare whisky and bottle of still water for £54.95. At the foot of the receipt a note reads: “As per Mr J. Sanger.”"
    Awkward....

    "bottle of still water for £54.95" - Crickey London prices really are out of hand.
    He puts whiskey in the fridge FFS.

    Mind you one has to ask if the rent boys bother to clean behind the fridge?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited September 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

    Is this correct? If so, I missed this announcement. Are we allowed to talk about Jim the washing machine salesman?
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    MP_SE said:

    Do these "gifts" need to be declared?

    "“He was coming in regularly and when we asked where was his booking he would just say ‘Have you spoken to Mr Sanger?’

    A bar bill for the evening of 4 June shows the MP had a dinner of lemon sole, a J&B Rare whisky and bottle of still water for £54.95. At the foot of the receipt a note reads: “As per Mr J. Sanger.”"
    Awkward....

    "bottle of still water for £54.95" - Crickey London prices really are out of hand.
    He puts whiskey in the fridge FFS.

    Mind you one has to ask if the rent boys bother to clean behind the fridge?
    Well thats it...Whiskey in the fridge....he must be removed from parliament for that.
    Unfit for public office !!
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    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

    Is this correct? If so, I missed this announcement.
    Yeah, I posted on the earlier thread.

    Legal letters are flying about. All posts now have to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,883
    John_M said:



    People don't understand the single market. It's almost pointless asking them questions about it. Look at the difficulties people have distinguishing 'access' and 'membership'.

    I don't think the author of the poll understands what a single market is either. It isn't a sensible question to ask. I think he took the throw away remark trotted out by the Germans: No cherry picking, you don't get the single market unless you accept the conditions including freedom of movement. He then concocted a question: how many cherries are you prepared to concede?


  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    edited September 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

    Is this correct? If so, I missed this announcement.
    Yeah, I posted on the earlier thread.

    Legal letters are flying about. All posts now have to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.
    Heard and understood. Although I don't think any of my posts have made any claims that are not in the mainstream newspapers.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    edited September 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

    Is this correct? If so, I missed this announcement.
    Yeah, I posted on the earlier thread.

    Legal letters are flying about. All posts now have to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.
    Heard and understood. Although I don't think any of my posts have made any claims that are not in the mainstream newspapers.
    Thanks, I know no one wants to get Mike into trouble, I think it is easier if we all err on the side of caution.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,601

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    Can I ask..what exactly is Keith Vaz alleged to have done wrong?

    You really don't want to know.

    But this is why he should be forced out as an MP.

    When asked by one of the men whether he wanted to use a condom this time, Mr Vaz – who last year fronted a safe sex campaign in his constituency – said “No”.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/married-mp-keith-vaz-tells-8763805

    Anyone who is prepared to have unprotected sex with people who are apparently sex workers, is unfit to hold public office.

    It's like playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded gun.
    And then go home to the wife? Ugh.
    I'm the most socially liberal person in the world, it's not a moral thing.

    COVER YOUR STUMP BEFORE YOU HUMP, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY ARE SEX WORKERS
    Maybe the risk of contracting AIDS was part of the thrill.
    How the hell is that a thrill?

    I thought the most thrilling part of coitus was climaxing. Can't beat that.
    That reminds me of that recent story about these Russian roulette parties where you know in advance one participant is HIV+. Unbelievable but true, apparently. Just shows how attitudes have changed since the incurable plague fear swept through the late 80s.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

    Is this correct? If so, I missed this announcement.
    Yeah, I posted on the earlier thread.

    Legal letters are flying about. All posts now have to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.
    Ok ...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    edited September 2016
    As I understand it, Keith Vaz has already issued legal letters to a fellow MP, if he can go after a colleague, I'm sure he won't hesitate to go after people on websites
  • Options

    As I understand it, Keith Vaz has already issued legal letters to a fellow MP.

    I saw that, quite incredible.
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited September 2016

    As I understand it, Keith Vaz has already issued legal letters to a fellow MP, if he can go after a colleague, I'm sure he won't hesitate to go after people on websites

    ..

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    One thing I m glad to see the Mirror doing is calling them "prostitutes". I find the phrase "rent boy" rather horrible.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,571

    As I understand it, Keith Vaz has already issued legal letters to a fellow MP.

    I saw that, quite incredible.
    Worst written legal letter I have ever seen. Quite remarkable.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    Moses_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not a mod, but a reminder that Vaz is verboten, his lawyers are watching...

    Is this correct? If so, I missed this announcement.
    Yeah, I posted on the earlier thread.

    Legal letters are flying about. All posts now have to come with a link from a reputable UK news organisation.
    Ok ...
    Married man plays away from home is one story. Horrible for wife and family and arguably in the public interest. The justification for this can be a bit thin at times.

    It's what else the newspapers have, which is not published but where some pretty obvious clues are in front of your eyes, which is usually of more interest. The reaction of other politicians - if the "scandal" is about a politician - can also give you a clue.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,760
    edited September 2016
    DavidL said:

    As I understand it, Keith Vaz has already issued legal letters to a fellow MP.

    I saw that, quite incredible.
    Worst written legal letter I have ever seen. Quite remarkable.
    A well known website about betting on politics once received a legal letter threatening to report them to the gambling commission and have their gambling licence revoked.
This discussion has been closed.