politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Use your political forecasting skills to enter the 2016 PB

First like Corbyn.

Ages ago I predicted that Remain would get about 65% in the referendum, but I don't remember ever seeing the results of that predikshun competition. Did I miss it?

JohnLoony said:

Ages ago I predicted that Remain would get about 65% in the referendum, but I don't remember ever seeing the results of that predikshun competition. Did I miss it?

No. It got overlooked in the frenzy of political activity post referendum. I will put that right in the coming days.

edmundintokyo said:

The screenshot in the header has inadvertently included the final result of the election. Could we have this removed, as it ruins the fun for competition players, and also spoils it for Labour members who have signed up and paid money to participate in their sham democracy.

MI5 have been busy!

I can't get on to make a prediction. Not too concerned because I have absolutely no idea what turnout is likely to be like standing the various court decisions of who is eligible.

Done my entry.

Any news on the UKIP contest? It seems to have gone quiet.

edit

Entered. Why are the candidates “Carbyn” and “Owen”?

Is someone, somewhere, still hankering for the return of Dr Death?

foxinsoxuk said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Done my entry.

Any news on the UKIP contest? It seems to have gone quiet.

No one cares about UKIP.. its lost its raison d'etre.. people such as Mike K are reduced to slagging off Dave(see prev thread)..

It's not dead yet!

A lot depends on what happens when the phoney war over Brexit ends, and Article 50 invoked. The Bitter Enders will not agree with anything less than total withdrawal.

Far too soon to say UKIP is finished. Seems there are plenty of opportunities in Northern working class constituencies where Labour is falling apart.

Of course, Nigel could really be planning a new movement or party and then UKIP would be fighting for its life.

foxinsoxuk said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Done my entry.

Any news on the UKIP contest? It seems to have gone quiet.

No one cares about UKIP.. its lost its raison d'etre.. people such as Mike K are reduced to slagging off Dave(see prev thread)..

It's not dead yet!

A lot depends on what happens when the phoney war over Brexit ends, and Article 50 invoked. The Bitter Enders will not agree with anything less than total withdrawal.

Maybe so, and it may cause Mrs May some trouble but as a party political force its finished IMHO.. It'll be Tory frothers that cause the trouble for Mrs May anyway, in the HOC UKIP its toothless.

rottenborough said:

Yep, it is definitely deep into the 'silly season' when this is one of the DT's online top headlines:

"Playing the bagpipes daily could be fatal, warn doctors"

It is in the Daily Mail too:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-3753129/Could-bagpipe-lung-Warning-toxic-mould-inside-wind-instruments-like-trombone-saxophone.html

Casino_Royale said:

JohnLoony said:

Ages ago I predicted that Remain would get about 65% in the referendum, but I don't remember ever seeing the results of that predikshun competition. Did I miss it?

No, but don't hold your breath.

The Feb 29th NoJam predictions seem to have disappeared. Not my finest hour either, but most PBers fell flat on that one.

I won the first 'sex, lies and the ballot box' in a PB competition, so I have a good feeling about this.

JohnLoony said:

DavidL said:

I can't get on to make a prediction. Not too concerned because I have absolutely no idea what turnout is likely to be like standing the various court decisions of who is eligible.

The electorate is c.647,000. Last year it was 554,272 and the turnout was 422,644.

Thought it was less than that after disqualifications?

MikeSmithson said:

JohnLoony said:

Ages ago I predicted that Remain would get about 65% in the referendum, but I don't remember ever seeing the results of that predikshun competition. Did I miss it?

No. It got overlooked in the frenzy of political activity post referendum. I will put that right in the coming days.

I had it to set to publish on Sunday 26th of June, then the Shadow Cabinet resigned en masse that day following Hilary Benn's sacking and screwed up that plan.

I blame Jeremy Corbyn.

OldKingCole said:

JohnLoony said:

DavidL said:

I can't get on to make a prediction. Not too concerned because I have absolutely no idea what turnout is likely to be like standing the various court decisions of who is eligible.

The electorate is c.647,000. Last year it was 554,272 and the turnout was 422,644.

Thought it was less than that after disqualifications?

I think there is less enthusiasm (for anyone) this time around. Just going through the motions.

HYUFD said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Done my entry.

Any news on the UKIP contest? It seems to have gone quiet.

No one cares about UKIP.. its lost its raison d'etre.. people such as Mike K are reduced to slagging off Dave(see prev thread)..

It's not dead yet!

A lot depends on what happens when the phoney war over Brexit ends, and Article 50 invoked. The Bitter Enders will not agree with anything less than total withdrawal.

Maybe so, and it may cause Mrs May some trouble but as a party political force its finished IMHO.. It'll be Tory frothers that cause the trouble for Mrs May anyway, in the HOC UKIP its toothless.

About 25% of the country backs hard BREXIT so if May comes back with any compromise on that at all UKIP will still have a significant pool of voters to target and even perhaps to build on the 13% they won at the general election

Possibly. There are plenty of people who want a harder Brexit than UKIP, with sending foreigners home right now and stopping any more from coming, and many many more who will react very poorly to any move away from it. I'm not convinced may wants to take on that trouble.

Good morning, everyone.

Not long until Spa kicks off. Bit of a tricky track to go back to after a break, as both low and high downforce setups are valid approaches.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

JohnLoony said:

Ages ago I predicted that Remain would get about 65% in the referendum, but I don't remember ever seeing the results of that predikshun competition. Did I miss it?

No. It got overlooked in the frenzy of political activity post referendum. I will put that right in the coming days.

I had it to set to publish on Sunday 26th of June, then the Shadow Cabinet resigned en masse that day following Hilary Benn's sacking and screwed up that plan.

I blame Jeremy Corbyn.

Typical people blaming JC for their own failings.

Under JC, all threads will be published in the time and order they are supposed to, as people driven politics will ensure only worthy topics, rather than covering resignations of traitors, are prepared.

I've written a very pro Corbyn thread which will be published in the next few days.

It contains the greatest simile in PB, nay, human history.

rottenborough said:

Yep, it is definitely deep into the 'silly season' when this is one of the DT's online top headlines:

"Playing the bagpipes daily could be fatal, warn doctors"

Or they are just trolling the Nats

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Done my entry.

Any news on the UKIP contest? It seems to have gone quiet.

No one cares about UKIP.. its lost its raison d'etre.. people such as Mike K are reduced to slagging off Dave(see prev thread)..

It's not dead yet!

A lot depends on what happens when the phoney war over Brexit ends, and Article 50 invoked. The Bitter Enders will not agree with anything less than total withdrawal.

Maybe so, and it may cause Mrs May some trouble but as a party political force its finished IMHO.. It'll be Tory frothers that cause the trouble for Mrs May anyway, in the HOC UKIP its toothless.

About 25% of the country backs hard BREXIT so if May comes back with any compromise on that at all UKIP will still have a significant pool of voters to target and even perhaps to build on the 13% they won at the general election

Possibly. There are plenty of people who want a harder Brexit than UKIP, with sending foreigners home right now and stopping any more from coming, and many many more who will react very poorly to any move away from it. I'm not convinced may wants to take on that trouble.

However given about 75% of the country does not want hard BREXIT, including a narrow plurality of Tory voters and the City, May has no choice but to make some compromise to ensure a free trade deal. Given the state of Labour she can afford to lose a few hardline anti EU Tories to UKIP anyway

It's a question of who will kick up the greatest fuss if they don't get what they want, if their influence is disproportionate and if may is willing to take those people on. She may well, for the reasons you say, but I'm not convinced yet.

If May does agree hard BREXIT the economy will be hit badly and she could even lose the next election or at least her majority, the LDs would rocket up the polls. Losing a few votes to UKIP is a much lower risk and a softer BREXIT will protect the economy too. If we listened to the most vocal then Corbyn would win a landslide

MTimT said:

RobD said:

edmundintokyo said:

The screenshot in the header has inadvertently included the final result of the election. Could we have this removed, as it ruins the fun for competition players, and also spoils it for Labour members who have signed up and paid money to participate in their sham democracy.

MI5 have been busy!

Unfortunately, they can't do arithmetic. 61.54 to 38.46 does not give a winning margin of 10.58. And what is 0.3 of a vote?

I read it to mean that the first figures are the percentage of entries opting for the various candidates, not the average forecast vote share. The second figure is the arithmetic average of the margins, which of course include some one way and some the other. The third figure is the average of the turnout predictions, which clearly doesnt have to be a whole number.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

JohnLoony said:

Ages ago I predicted that Remain would get about 65% in the referendum, but I don't remember ever seeing the results of that predikshun competition. Did I miss it?

No. It got overlooked in the frenzy of political activity post referendum. I will put that right in the coming days.

I had it to set to publish on Sunday 26th of June, then the Shadow Cabinet resigned en masse that day following Hilary Benn's sacking and screwed up that plan.

I blame Jeremy Corbyn.

Typical people blaming JC for their own failings.

Under JC, all threads will be published in the time and order they are supposed to, as people driven politics will ensure only worthy topics, rather than covering resignations of traitors, are prepared.

Should be would as opposed to will. No chance whatsoever of will.

RobD said:

I see the Olympians are returning today.

Question: is this the largest flow of gold in or out of this country since a certain G Brown sold our reserves at bottom dollar prices?

Answer: No. There is next to no gold even in the 'gold' medals.

RobD said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

JohnLoony said:

Ages ago I predicted that Remain would get about 65% in the referendum, but I don't remember ever seeing the results of that predikshun competition. Did I miss it?

No. It got overlooked in the frenzy of political activity post referendum. I will put that right in the coming days.

I had it to set to publish on Sunday 26th of June, then the Shadow Cabinet resigned en masse that day following Hilary Benn's sacking and screwed up that plan.

I blame Jeremy Corbyn.

Typical people blaming JC for their own failings.

Under JC, all threads will be published in the time and order they are supposed to, as people driven politics will ensure only worthy topics, rather than covering resignations of traitors, are prepared.

Does this extend to threads on alternative voting systems?

No. In true people politics fashion, I know that the people want AV threads, even if they don't say so.

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

I see the Olympians are returning today.

Question: is this the largest flow of gold in or out of this country since a certain G Brown sold our reserves at bottom dollar prices?

Answer: No. There is next to no gold even in the 'gold' medals.

6g per medal. The IOC became a bunch of tight arses.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

JohnLoony said:

Ages ago I predicted that Remain would get about 65% in the referendum, but I don't remember ever seeing the results of that predikshun competition. Did I miss it?

No. It got overlooked in the frenzy of political activity post referendum. I will put that right in the coming days.

I had it to set to publish on Sunday 26th of June, then the Shadow Cabinet resigned en masse that day following Hilary Benn's sacking and screwed up that plan.

I blame Jeremy Corbyn.

Typical people blaming JC for their own failings.

Under JC, all threads will be published in the time and order they are supposed to, as people driven politics will ensure only worthy topics, rather than covering resignations of traitors, are prepared.

Should be would as opposed to will. No chance whatsoever of will.

Have faith, comrade.

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

I see the Olympians are returning today.

Question: is this the largest flow of gold in or out of this country since a certain G Brown sold our reserves at bottom dollar prices?

Answer: No. There is next to no gold even in the 'gold' medals.

6g per medal. The IOC became a bunch of tight arses.

That's quite alot I think.

The winner of the PB competition on the Labour leadership election was a Mr Lutfur Rahman of Tower Hamlets. He correctly forecast the precise number of votes for each candidate. Congratulations to him.

Quite an interesting email reply from a contituent who voted for Yvette last time:

"I am utterly appalled by the disgraceful way Corbyn has been treated by some of his parliamentary colleagues and by the mainstream media.

I do not agree with everything he advocates (Indeed I may well disagree with more than half of it) and I am by no means convinced that he will lead the Labour Party to victory at the next election.

He is however clearly someone capable of independent thought, he is willing to listen and he does offer a refreshing change from the idea of merely offering a top-down vision of self-serving blandness.

He also appears to have been right many times in the past when others followed a more fashionable route."

JohnLoony said:

DavidL said:

I can't get on to make a prediction. Not too concerned because I have absolutely no idea what turnout is likely to be like standing the various court decisions of who is eligible.

The electorate is c.647,000. Last year it was 554,272 and the turnout was 422,644.

Interesting. Just 90,000 more than last year. If Smith were to achieve an unlikely victory, it would need (1) significant numbers of new sign ups for Smith via Saving Labour and (2) sign ups for Corbyn being much less than hyped, new sign ups being offset by some 2015 Corbyn supporters not signing up again.and (3) some switching of 2015 Corbyn voters to Smith. There is evidence of 1 and 3 happening, does the low 90k figure imply that 2 is as well?

As someone initially receptive to Owen Smith, he's seemed less and less impressive as the contest goes on, so I don't see him being able to beat Corbyn. I think he's failed to inspire people, basically just saying he is a presentable, competent version of Corbyn, who can win a GE - but we don't actually have any reason to believe any of those points. The problem is that all the actual potential-PM types, Chuka, Jarvis etc, chickened out. I think someone like Chuka Umuna may have actually been able to convince people he could win a GE, and would seem a more appealing alternative.

I've gone for Corbyn to win with a 10% margin (my turnout prediction was basically random as I don't know the selectorate well enough!)

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Done my entry.

Any news on the UKIP contest? It seems to have gone quiet.

No one cares about UKIP.. its lost its raison d'etre.. people such as Mike K are reduced to slagging off Dave(see prev thread)..

It's not dead yet!

A lot depends on what happens when the phoney war over Brexit ends, and Article 50 invoked. The Bitter Enders will not agree with anything less than total withdrawal.

Maybe so, and it may cause Mrs May some trouble but as a party political force its finished IMHO.. It'll be Tory frothers that cause the trouble for Mrs May anyway, in the HOC UKIP its toothless.

About 25% of the country backs hard BREXIT so if May comes back with any compromise on that at all UKIP will still have a significant pool of voters to target and even perhaps to build on the 13% they won at the general election

Possibly. There are plenty of people who want a harder Brexit than UKIP, with sending foreigners home right now and stopping any more from coming, and many many more who will react very poorly to any move away from it. I'm not convinced may wants to take on that trouble.

However given about 75% of the country does not want hard BREXIT, including a narrow plurality of Tory voters and the City, May has no choice but to make some compromise to ensure a free trade deal. Given the state of Labour she can afford to lose a few hardline anti EU Tories to UKIP anyway

It's a question of who will kick up the greatest fuss if they don't get what they want, if their influence is disproportionate and if may is willing to take those people on. She may well, for the reasons you say, but I'm not convinced yet.

If May does agree hard BREXIT the economy will be hit badly and she could even lose the next election or at least her majority, the LDs would rocket up the polls. Losing a few votes to UKIP is a much lower risk and a softer BREXIT will protect the economy too. If we listened to the most vocal then Corbyn would win a landslide

She will have little choice, EU has a flush and May has two deuces, it will be HARD.

Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.

May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Done my entry.

Any news on the UKIP contest? It seems to have gone quiet.

No one cares about UKIP.. its lost its raison d'etre.. people such as Mike K are reduced to slagging off Dave(see prev thread)..

It's not dead yet!

A lot depends on what happens when the phoney war over Brexit ends, and Article 50 invoked. The Bitter Enders will not agree with anything less than total withdrawal.

Maybe so, and it may cause Mrs May some trouble but as a party political force its finished IMHO.. It'll be Tory frothers that cause the trouble for Mrs May anyway, in the HOC UKIP its toothless.

About 25% of the country backs hard BREXIT so if May comes back with any compromise on that at all UKIP will still have a significant pool of voters to target and even perhaps to build on the 13% they won at the general election

Possibly. There are plenty of people who want a harder Brexit than UKIP, with sending foreigners home right now and stopping any more from coming, and many many more who will react very poorly to any move away from it. I'm not convinced may wants to take on that trouble.

However given about 75% of the country does not want hard BREXIT, including a narrow plurality of Tory voters and the City, May has no choice but to make some compromise to ensure a free trade deal. Given the state of Labour she can afford to lose a few hardline anti EU Tories to UKIP anyway

It's a question of who will kick up the greatest fuss if they don't get what they want, if their influence is disproportionate and if may is willing to take those people on. She may well, for the reasons you say, but I'm not convinced yet.

If May does agree hard BREXIT the economy will be hit badly and she could even lose the next election or at least her majority, the LDs would rocket up the polls. Losing a few votes to UKIP is a much lower risk and a softer BREXIT will protect the economy too. If we listened to the most vocal then Corbyn would win a landslide

She will have little choice, EU has a flush and May has two deuces, it will be HARD.

There are varying gradients of hard

NickPalmer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

JohnLoony said:

DavidL said:

I can't get on to make a prediction. Not too concerned because I have absolutely no idea what turnout is likely to be like standing the various court decisions of who is eligible.

The electorate is c.647,000. Last year it was 554,272 and the turnout was 422,644.

Thought it was less than that after disqualifications?

I think there is less enthusiasm (for anyone) this time around. Just going through the motions.

Straw poll: I endorsed Corbyn in an email to Broxtowe members last night. Response so far (32 people) is 14 mostly enthusiastic for him, 8 opposed (but nobody so far positively saying they like Owen), and 10 can't decide or won't vote. Allow for politeness, people who feel strongly being more likely to reply, etc. But I think enthusiasm level is down but where it exists it's almost entirely for JC.

"....trust me, comrades, I know a loser when I see one..."

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SquareRoot said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Done my entry.

Any news on the UKIP contest? It seems to have gone quiet.

No one cares about UKIP.. its lost its raison d'etre.. people such as Mike K are reduced to slagging off Dave(see prev thread)..

It's not dead yet!

A lot depends on what happens when the phoney war over Brexit ends, and Article 50 invoked. The Bitter Enders will not agree with anything less than total withdrawal.

Maybe so, and it may cause Mrs May some trouble but as a party political force its finished IMHO.. It'll be Tory frothers that cause the trouble for Mrs May anyway, in the HOC UKIP its toothless.

About 25% of the country backs hard BREXIT so if May comes back with any compromise on that at all UKIP will still have a significant pool of voters to target and even perhaps to build on the 13% they won at the general election

Possibly. There are plenty of people who want a harder Brexit than UKIP, with sending foreigners home right now and stopping any more from coming, and many many more who will react very poorly to any move away from it. I'm not convinced may wants to take on that trouble.

However given about 75% of the country does not want hard BREXIT, including a narrow plurality of Tory voters and the City, May has no choice but to make some compromise to ensure a free trade deal. Given the state of Labour she can afford to lose a few hardline anti EU Tories to UKIP anyway

It's a question of who will kick up the greatest fuss if they don't get what they want, if their influence is disproportionate and if may is willing to take those people on. She may well, for the reasons you say, but I'm not convinced yet.

If May does agree hard BREXIT the economy will be hit badly and she could even lose the next election or at least her majority, the LDs would rocket up the polls. Losing a few votes to UKIP is a much lower risk and a softer BREXIT will protect the economy too. If we listened to the most vocal then Corbyn would win a landslide

I think that depends upon whether she has a convincing plan for hard Brexit. Which will have to be given another title. Full indy or something. I'm all for it. Sign me up for Switzerland with a dash of Singapore I say.

Luckyguy1983 said:

SquareRoot said:

TOPPING said:

NickPalmer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

JohnLoony said:

DavidL said:

I can't get on to make a prediction. Not too concerned because I have absolutely no idea what turnout is likely to be like standing the various court decisions of who is eligible.

The electorate is c.647,000. Last year it was 554,272 and the turnout was 422,644.

Thought it was less than that after disqualifications?

I think there is less enthusiasm (for anyone) this time around. Just going through the motions.

Straw poll: I endorsed Corbyn in an email to Broxtowe members last night. Response so far (32 people) is 14 mostly enthusiastic for him, 8 opposed (but nobody so far positively saying they like Owen), and 10 can't decide or won't vote. Allow for politeness, people who feel strongly being more likely to reply, etc. But I think enthusiasm level is down but where it exists it's almost entirely for JC.

"....trust me, comrades, I know a loser when I see one..."

Anna Soubry will be dancing in the streets of Broxtowe tonight

Isn't that just her usual Tuesday?

... ever since May 2010

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.

May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.

I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap

There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.

Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.

rcs1000 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.

May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.

I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap

There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.

Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.

First sentence spot on and should be applied to this site also

rcs1000 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.

May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.

I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap

There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.

Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.

Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?

in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.

rcs1000 said:

Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.

Any trade agreement allows for tariff-free trade on machinery. If you don't have that, you just don't bother with one. The important thing to realise is that we won't be able to do a deal on services in exchange for Germans selling us their cars. We would have to offer something else. It's not clear what that else is, that Germany in particular wants.

We'll get the basic deal, which means our exports to the EU will go down very significantly. I suppose those that celebrate declining export shares to the EU will be vindicated.

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.

Any trade agreement allows for tariff-free trade on machinery. If you don't have that, you just don't bother with one. The important thing to realise is that we won't be able to do a deal on services in exchange for Germans selling us their cars. We would have to offer something else. It's not clear what that else is, that Germany in particular wants.

We'll get the basic deal, which means our exports to the EU will go down very significantly. I suppose those that celebrate declining export shares to the EU will be vindicated.

Yep more ill informed rubbish, as I noted below

Luckyguy1983 said:

rcs1000 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.

May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.

I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap

There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.

Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.

Stop being so overwrought. It would not be disastrous; it would incur an increase in expenses which could be offset by a tax cut. For other businesses it would be a boon.

Good morning all.

The European automotive industry is just that: European. Even the much vaunted Nissan Sunderland plant gets its diesel engines from Renault.

It makes sense for both sides to have a tariff-free agreement on goods. How that's dressed up and presented is immaterial. Whether EU27 domestic politics will permit that is also open to question.

I've read enough now to know that while the heads of agreement might (might!) come quite quickly, there are going to be huge chunks of boring detail (e.g. transitional EU27 access to UK fishing waters, legislative equivalency on product name misuse, rinse & repeat 10,000 times) that will bore the electorate to tears, and only matter to sectional interests.

I've also read enough to realise that the media are almost invariably wrong, whichever side they're pushing. Someone pushed a Vanity Fair article on to my timeline last night and it was eye-wateringly bad across the board.

I'm still hoping that May will try to widen the UK's offer as much as possible - a security, intelligence and economic framework, rather than just a variation on the {Swiss, Canada, EEA) themes. Let's see.

No knee-jerk speculation on religion/ideology/ethnicity over this?

'Man Stabbed In Car Park 'Sword Attack' In Liverpool'

http://tinyurl.com/z2pcjbk

Slackbladder said:

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

JohnLoony said:

DavidL said:

I can't get on to make a prediction. Not too concerned because I have absolutely no idea what turnout is likely to be like standing the various court decisions of who is eligible.

The electorate is c.647,000. Last year it was 554,272 and the turnout was 422,644.

Thought it was less than that after disqualifications?

I think there is less enthusiasm (for anyone) this time around. Just going through the motions.

Straw poll: I endorsed Corbyn in an email to Broxtowe members last night. Response so far (32 people) is 14 mostly enthusiastic for him, 8 opposed (but nobody so far positively saying they like Owen), and 10 can't decide or won't vote. Allow for politeness, people who feel strongly being more likely to reply, etc. But I think enthusiasm level is down but where it exists it's almost entirely for JC.

Not surprising when we read about the hard lefty in Broxtowe.. looks like its a Momentum takeover.

Thats the problem the 'moderates' are going to have. You have a bunch of people for which Corbyn is going to be very popular, then a bunch of people (smaller) which are ABC (Anything but Corbyn), then undecideds, but very very few people which are 'Smithites'.

Even if Corbyn is beatable, does anyone really think that Smith is the guy to do it?

No. Although I had a small wager on Smith as he represented a value bet earlier on in contest. I doubt I'd do it now though.

A bunch of leftoids on my facebook feed are annoyed at ditching the HRA, now I know the government are on the right track. If so many lawyers and other lefty idiots are upset they must be doing something right.

Theuniondivvie said:

No knee-jerk speculation on religion/ideology/ethnicity over this?

'Man Stabbed In Car Park 'Sword Attack' In Liverpool'

http://tinyurl.com/z2pcjbk

Disappointed Olympic fencers ?