I have just caught up with the latest YouGov poll putting the Tories 8% ahead at 38% to Labour’s 30% Whilst this is not good for Labour – it is also far from being disastrous in the context of May’s honeymoon and the internal party strife of recent months. It would imply the loss of just six seats which – if accurate – would boost the Tory majority to 24. That would be very far from being a Tory landslide. Moreover, most of the seats lost would have been gained by Labour in 2015 , and the new MPs – based on the evidence of recent elections – could reasonably expect to benefit from a first time incumbency bonus which should enable them to withstand what would be a tiny national swing against Labour of 0.7%. In other words, a Tory lead of 8% today – compared with 6.6% in May 2015 – might well not lead to any Labour losses at all! Going on to gain Tory seats, however, would be a different matter.
But whenever did a general election turn in a result anywhere close to where the polls were in midterm?
But midterm will not arrive until we reach 2017 and it may be the case that the nadir of the Government's electoral fortunes will not occur until 2018 - or even 2019.
I am sure you are right that the Tories will probably run into a rockier period next year.
Nevertheless people can answer 'Labour' to the pollsters now, without having to worry about what sort of offering a potential labour government will be putting forward. In an actual election I cannot see the state of Labour, its platform and likely campaign, whether under Corby or Citizen Smith, as doing anything other than repelling a proportion of its current support.
Which could put us in truly unprecedented circumstances of an unpopular government, unpopular opposition, and (ex Scotland) no third party surge either. Who wins then, I have no idea. Probably the government.
Labour's only real short-term 'hope' is that some sort of economic collapse, whether Brexit related or otherwise, completely discredits 'establishment' economics (and possibly politics) and people turn to Corbyn in desperation.
Apart from the usual suspects, very few puerile faces on pbCOM today.
Is anyone else finding post Brexit social engagements awkward? I've just had to get my friend email her seating arrangement for a formal engagement this Saturday to ensure that I have not been inadvertently positioned next to any Brexit pillocks. Tories are OK, but Bexit, no way.
It's a good job I'm not single- the exclusion list for potential partners is growing- meat eaters (imagine kissing someone with a bit of bacon stuck in their teeth..... gross), right wing zealots, anyone who remotely thinks that the badger cull is acceptable, and the 52% who voted Brexit.....
How utterly crass. If a guest of mine asked that I would laugh.
Yes, it must be nice to be a Friend of Tyson, and get these long exhaustive emails detailing exactly who is he prepared to be seated next to, and who must be seated at a distance from him, should he deign to come to your party. Like a kind of poxy vegan archduke.
tyson forgot farmers who let their dogs kill vermin from his list. Oh! And posho athletes who win medals for his country.
Does he not like that? He wouldn't have enjoyed my walk this morning. (A squirrel which thought it could outrun a lurcher got edited out of the gene pool. Sadly.)
No, I mentioned that my girl Shepherd and boy Irish Jack Russell had killed a groundhog, and he got all huffy about that.
What type of lurcher? A friend has a lovely Deerhound/Collie mix
Whoops! So he made up the whole damn story, to try and show himself as some man of the people? What bollocks from someone who wants to lead the government-in-waiting.
Also his argument - as quoted in the telegraph - is risible.
"We need more trains. They are very expensive. Isn't that a good argument for public ownership?"
Um . No. It's an argument for increasing investment in trains. It may be public ownership is the right model to adopt but he's skipped several steps.
Indeed, for problems that fall within the realm of complexity, such research as there is indicates that true experts (people with the 10,000 hours of engaged involvement or whatever the definition is) are often worse at predictions in their field of expertise than lay people.
Part of the explanation may be that they get too narrowly focused on issues they have studied, rather than elements they have not.
Up to a point, Mr. T, I suspect that is true but only for topics that the layman has a feel for from his normal life. When it comes to highly technical topics, the expert is, I think, far more likely to be correct.
Take for example the case of molten-salt reactors and the chances of Moltex being able to deploy a workable, safe, plutonium-burning power station by 2025. I think for that question the views of experts are far more likely to be correct than the bloke up the pub. On questions of, say, economics then experience has taught me that said bloke up the pub is probably as likely to be correct than eminent economists (see Blanchflower and 5 million unemployed).
On the subject of Moltex, it looks extremely promising. I've been researching it for the last few days for work and I think the technology shows great promise. A bolder government would ditch HPC and buy a stake in Moltex and clear the way for them to build test reactors and scale up their designs into a commercial reality. It is a technology that is exportable too as it uses existing plutonium waste as a primary fuel. I honestly think Moltex offers the UK an opportunity to become a global leader in nuclear sciences again. HPC is the opposite.
Apart from the usual suspects, very few puerile faces on pbCOM today.
Is anyone else finding post Brexit social engagements awkward? I've just had to get my friend email her seating arrangement for a formal engagement this Saturday to ensure that I have not been inadvertently positioned next to any Brexit pillocks. Tories are OK, but Bexit, no way.
It's a good job I'm not single- the exclusion list for potential partners is growing- meat eaters (imagine kissing someone with a bit of bacon stuck in their teeth..... gross), right wing zealots, anyone who remotely thinks that the badger cull is acceptable, and the 52% who voted Brexit.....
How utterly crass. If a guest of mine asked that I would laugh.
Yes, it must be nice to be a Friend of Tyson, and get these long exhaustive emails detailing exactly who is he prepared to be seated next to, and who must be seated at a distance from him, should he deign to come to your party. Like a kind of poxy vegan archduke.
tyson forgot farmers who let their dogs kill vermin from his list. Oh! And posho athletes who win medals for his country.
Does he not like that? He wouldn't have enjoyed my walk this morning. (A squirrel which thought it could outrun a lurcher got edited out of the gene pool. Sadly.)
No, I mentioned that my girl Shepherd and boy Irish Jack Russell had killed a groundhog, and he got all huffy about that.
What type of lurcher? A friend has a lovely Deerhound/Collie mix
Deerhound/greyhound (so technically longdog, not lurcher).
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
Notable that, for all the talk of Chinese demographic crisis, the sheer size of China means that in one year its population has grown by six million people. They've added the population of Scotland and Wales - in 12 months. Only India has added more people in a single year.
The Chinese "demographic crisis" won't really hit for quite a while.
Japan is in a crisis, I wonder if China will be a much much much bigger Japan in a couple of decades time, both have a one party system more or less.
Whoops! So he made up the whole damn story, to try and show himself as some man of the people? What bollocks from someone who wants to lead the government-in-waiting.
Also his argument - as quoted in the telegraph - is risible.
"We need more trains. They are very expensive. Isn't that a good argument for public ownership?"
Um . No. It's an argument for increasing investment in trains. It may be public ownership is the right model to adopt but he's skipped several steps.
But is there anything "wrong" with anything, that wouldn't be "fixed" in his mind with public ownership and stronger Unions?
Eire got a paltry two silvers in Rio, outside the union. Her Majesty's loyal welsh subjects got ten medals, however, including four golds.
Just sayin'
Again, as a kid I grew up thinking the Republic were better than us. They qualified for the 94 World Cup and won three golds at Atlanta (admittedly, Michelle Smith was later banned, but still). Perhaps it was just a bad time and I expect we'll fall back to the low teens in the next few games.
Whoops! So he made up the whole damn story, to try and show himself as some man of the people? What bollocks from someone who wants to lead the government-in-waiting.
Also his argument - as quoted in the telegraph - is risible.
"We need more trains. They are very expensive. Isn't that a good argument for public ownership?"
Um . No. It's an argument for increasing investment in trains. It may be public ownership is the right model to adopt but he's skipped several steps.
Corbyn is also fundamentally wrong. To run more trains at peak times, it is the track and signalling which need to be improved.
His argument would be like saying: London is very busy - we need more cars.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
Kids are great. Not for everyone. But don't regret it. Makes you grow.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
That's transient and you'll soon forget about it. Children are fantastic. They ruin your life in the most delightful way. For most of us, they're the only important achievement in our lives.
Apart from the usual suspects, very few puerile faces on pbCOM today.
Is anyone else finding post Brexit social engagements awkward? I've just had to get my friend email her seating arrangement for a formal engagement this Saturday to ensure that I have not been inadvertently positioned next to any Brexit pillocks. Tories are OK, but Bexit, no way.
It's a good job I'm not single- the exclusion list for potential partners is growing- meat eaters (imagine kissing someone with a bit of bacon stuck in their teeth..... gross), right wing zealots, anyone who remotely thinks that the badger cull is acceptable, and the 52% who voted Brexit.....
How utterly crass. If a guest of mine asked that I would laugh.
Yes, it must be nice to be a Friend of Tyson, and get these long exhaustive emails detailing exactly who is he prepared to be seated next to, and who must be seated at a distance from him, should he deign to come to your party. Like a kind of poxy vegan archduke.
tyson forgot farmers who let their dogs kill vermin from his list. Oh! And posho athletes who win medals for his country.
Does he not like that? He wouldn't have enjoyed my walk this morning. (A squirrel which thought it could outrun a lurcher got edited out of the gene pool. Sadly.)
No, I mentioned that my girl Shepherd and boy Irish Jack Russell had killed a groundhog, and he got all huffy about that.
What type of lurcher? A friend has a lovely Deerhound/Collie mix
Deerhound/greyhound (so technically longdog, not lurcher).
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
They are worth every lost hour of sleep, nothing will prepare you for the moment when they shout 'Daddy' and you realise they mean you.
Should've paid a quid and reserved one like everyone else.
You don't have to pay for seat reservations any more...
On Virgin East coast Newark to Kings Cross two weeks ago they asked for £27 for a seat booking, on top of £13.20 for the ticket.
Using a little bit of ubergeekery, I paid just £27 to go from Brum to Worksop via Nottingham using two separate return tickets (Brum <> Notts, Notts <> Worksop), rather than the advertised £54 return (Brum <>Worksop via any permitted).
Whoops! So he made up the whole damn story, to try and show himself as some man of the people? What bollocks from someone who wants to lead the government-in-waiting.
Also his argument - as quoted in the telegraph - is risible.
"We need more trains. They are very expensive. Isn't that a good argument for public ownership?"
Um . No. It's an argument for increasing investment in trains. It may be public ownership is the right model to adopt but he's skipped several steps.
Not if you're a dogmatist or ideologue:
(1) We have a problem, and a challenge (2) Common ownership of the means of production and distribution is the ideal state for humankind
Therefore, the solution to the challenge is nationalisation.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
Notable that, for all the talk of Chinese demographic crisis, the sheer size of China means that in one year its population has grown by six million people. They've added the population of Scotland and Wales - in 12 months. Only India has added more people in a single year.
The Chinese "demographic crisis" won't really hit for quite a while.
Japan is in a crisis, I wonder if China will be a much much much bigger Japan in a couple of decades time, both have a one party system more or less.
Now that they have taken the breaks off population growth it's not very likely. Japan's stagnation is related to the lack of children as much as anything else. Abe would do well to encourage Japanese people to procreate.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Notable that, for all the talk of Chinese demographic crisis, the sheer size of China means that in one year its population has grown by six million people. They've added the population of Scotland and Wales - in 12 months. Only India has added more people in a single year.
The Chinese "demographic crisis" won't really hit for quite a while.
Japan is in a crisis, I wonder if China will be a much much much bigger Japan in a couple of decades time, both have a one party system more or less.
Japan is a constitutional monarchy at least - and they drive on the Left!
I have just caught up with the latest YouGov poll putting the Tories 8% ahead at 38% to Labour’s 30% Whilst this is not good for Labour – it is also far from being disastrous in the context of May’s honeymoon and the internal party strife of recent months. It would imply the loss of just six seats which – if accurate – would boost the Tory majority to 24. That would be very far from being a Tory landslide. Moreover, most of the seats lost would have been gained by Labour in 2015 , and the new MPs – based on the evidence of recent elections – could reasonably expect to benefit from a first time incumbency bonus which should enable them to withstand what would be a tiny national swing against Labour of 0.7%. In other words, a Tory lead of 8% today – compared with 6.6% in May 2015 – might well not lead to any Labour losses at all! Going on to gain Tory seats, however, would be a different matter.
But whenever did a general election turn in a result anywhere close to where the polls were in midterm?
But midterm will not arrive until we reach 2017 and it may be the case that the nadir of the Government's electoral fortunes will not occur until 2018 - or even 2019.
I am sure you are right that the Tories will probably run into a rockier period next year.
Nevertheless people can answer 'Labour' to the pollsters now, without having to worry about what sort of offering a potential labour government will be putting forward. In an actual election I cannot see the state of Labour, its platform and likely campaign, whether under Corby or Citizen Smith, as doing anything other than repelling a proportion of its current support.
Which could put us in truly unprecedented circumstances of an unpopular government, unpopular opposition, and (ex Scotland) no third party surge either. Who wins then, I have no idea. Probably the government.
Labour's only real short-term 'hope' is that some sort of economic collapse, whether Brexit related or otherwise, completely discredits 'establishment' economics (and possibly politics) and people turn to Corbyn in desperation.
I believe the uncertainties to be considerable, and I quote the historical data simply to remind people that we have - in psephological terms - been close to this position in the past. Personally I cannot see Labour prospering under Corbyn in 2020 or whenever. I am less sure re-Owen Smith who has not been that sure footed at times in this campaign.On the other hand , I suspect he would be less likely to repel voters than Kinnock back in 1992 . He needs practice and polish - much less of a windbag though!
Attacks by Islamist militants, strikes and floods have caused a big fall in tourism in Paris. There were a million fewer visitors between January and June compared with the same period in 2015.
Indeed, for problems that fall within the realm of complexity, such research as there is indicates that true experts (people with the 10,000 hours of engaged involvement or whatever the definition is) are often worse at predictions in their field of expertise than lay people.
Part of the explanation may be that they get too narrowly focused on issues they have studied, rather than elements they have not.
Up to a point, Mr. T, I suspect that is true but only for topics that the layman has a feel for from his normal life. When it comes to highly technical topics, the expert is, I think, far more likely to be correct.
Take for example the case of molten-salt reactors and the chances of Moltex being able to deploy a workable, safe, plutonium-burning power station by 2025. I think for that question the views of experts are far more likely to be correct than the bloke up the pub. On questions of, say, economics then experience has taught me that said bloke up the pub is probably as likely to be correct than eminent economists (see Blanchflower and 5 million unemployed).
On the subject of Moltex, it looks extremely promising. I've been researching it for the last few days for work and I think the technology shows great promise. A bolder government would ditch HPC and buy a stake in Moltex and clear the way for them to build test reactors and scale up their designs into a commercial reality. It is a technology that is exportable too as it uses existing plutonium waste as a primary fuel. I honestly think Moltex offers the UK an opportunity to become a global leader in nuclear sciences again. HPC is the opposite.
Totally agree, Mr. Max, and it would provide a safe way of disposing of out huge stockpile of plutonium. Even if Moltex are out by a factor of ten on their cost projections it will still be cheaper to build and use their reactors than bury our plutonium underground for 200,000 years.
If TM does not scrp HPC in September I shall be bitterly disappointed because we will have missed out on a magnificent opportunity.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
There's really nothing you can say to people without kids to make having kids sound good. Everything about your life will change, and not in a way which, from your childless perspective, can possibly seem positive. You will have less money, less time, less opportunity (no opportunity, really) to do the things you enjoy now, more drudgery, worse health... and yet people who have kids generally find it such a positive experience that they do it a second time, or a third. It's brilliant. Just not in ways you can really quite understand now. I'm about to take my oldest two (6 and 4) swimming, by the way, in a minute. That can't really sound much fun to you. But it will be. I'm genuinely looking forward to it. And you will sleep poorly. But really poor sleep only lasts for about 8 weeks. (That said, it's 15 months now since I had a lie in past 9 am.) And you will adjust, and it will be fine. (But until it is fine, prioritise sleep over all else except keeping you , wife and baby alive).
Many years ago I worked a summer at Flamingoland. In between Easter and the start of the season proper, we were all put to mainenance work. I got to repaint the monkey house. Took about a week. There is nothing like being continuously pelted with monkey shit to put you off animals for life. They are also, dedicated, professional wankers. I was shocked.
Attacks by Islamist militants, strikes and floods have caused a big fall in tourism in Paris. There were a million fewer visitors between January and June compared with the same period in 2015.
The impact of ISIS and the Syrian war on travel is serious. Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey, even parts of Europe. Some previously safe and easy to access areas now no go areas to Westerners.
This is a big deal that has somehow crept up on us slowly.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
They are worth every lost hour of sleep, nothing will prepare you for the moment when they shout 'Daddy' and you realise they mean you.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
A colleague of mine who is inching towards her forties is in the bitter camp. On a drunken lunch/afternoon/dinner she spoke to me about it and told me to have kids before my gf and I hit 35. She said she was sold on the idea of being able to prioritise her career over having children and a family in her mid-twenties and by the time she realised at 35 that all she wanted was to settle down and have a family like her siblings she didn't even know where to start not being in a serious relationship and getting older by the day.
I had been wary of having children until then, but after listening to her bitterly regret prioritising today over tomorrow I had a rethink and my gf and I spoke about having kids for the first time seriously.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
They are worth every lost hour of sleep, nothing will prepare you for the moment when they shout 'Daddy' and you realise they mean you.
That moment when you come home from work, open the door an your kids run to you shouting Daddy!
I have just caught up with the latest YouGov poll putting the Tories 8% ahead at 38% to Labour’s 30% Whilst this is not good for Labour – it is also far from being disastrous in the context of May’s honeymoon and the internal party strife of recent months. It would imply the loss of just six seats which – if accurate – would boost the Tory majority to 24. That would be very far from being a Tory landslide. Moreover, most of the seats lost would have been gained by Labour in 2015 , and the new MPs – based on the evidence of recent elections – could reasonably expect to benefit from a first time incumbency bonus Going on to gain Tory seats, however, would be a different matter.
?
.
I am sure you are right that the Tories will probably run into a rockier period next year.
Nevertheless people can answer 'Labour' to the pollsters now, without having to worry about what sort of offering a potential labour government will be putting forward. In an actual election I cannot see the state of Labour, its platform and likely campaign, whether under Corby or Citizen Smith, as doing anything other than repelling a proportion of its current support.
Which could put us in truly unprecedented circumstances of an unpopular government, unpopular opposition, and (ex Scotland) no third party surge either. Who wins then, I have no idea. Probably the government.
Labour's only real short-term 'hope' is that some sort of economic collapse, whether Brexit related or otherwise, completely discredits 'establishment' economics (and possibly politics) and people turn to Corbyn in desperation.
I believe the uncertainties to be considerable, and I quote the historical data simply to remind people that we have - in psephological terms - been close to this position in the past. Personally I cannot see Labour prospering under Corbyn in 2020 or whenever. I am less sure re-Owen Smith who has not been that sure footed at times in this campaign.On the other hand , I suspect he would be less likely to repel voters than Kinnock back in 1992 . He needs practice and polish - much less of a windbag though!
The trouble is that people do, really, want politicians now who are what they seem. Corbyn has this advantage - so does Theresa May, on her own terms - her disdain for the posh boys has, with hindsight, been there from the start. So also Sturgeon and Farron. Smith? Is he the Blairite of old, pretending now to be left wing? Is he Citizen Smith reborn? Is he simply a stalking horse, to clear the way for the next generation's Titans of leadership that Labour is keeping in the shadows? Or yet another empty labour career politician, trying to make the best of the chances that come his way?
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Attacks by Islamist militants, strikes and floods have caused a big fall in tourism in Paris. There were a million fewer visitors between January and June compared with the same period in 2015.
The impact of ISIS and the Syrian war on travel is serious. Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey, even parts of Europe. Some previously safe and easy to access areas now no go areas to Westerners.
This is a big deal that has somehow crept up on us slowly.
Part of the reason staycations are increasingly popular (along with the devaluation of Sterling). The Isle of Wight for me.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
Thanks. And to all who have responded so quickly down thread.
Main reason I might be up for it is because I'm a bit bored of the couple-only life, which is fun but too easy and self-indulgent, and I'm also curious.
Many years ago I worked a summer at Flamingoland. In between Easter and the start of the season proper, we were all put to mainenance work. I got to repaint the monkey house. There is nothing like being continuously pelted with monkey shit to put you off animals for life. They are also, dedicated, professional wankers. I was shocked.
Indeed, for problems that fall within the realm of complexity, such research as there is indicates that true experts (people with the 10,000 hours of engaged involvement or whatever the definition is) are often worse at predictions in their field of expertise than lay people.
Part of the explanation may be that they get too narrowly focused on issues they have studied, rather than elements they have not.
Up to a point, Mr. T, I suspect that is true but only for topics that the layman has a feel for from his normal life. When it comes to highly technical topics, the expert is, I think, far more likely to be correct.
Take for example the case of molten-salt reactors and the chances of Moltex being able to deploy a workable, safe, plutonium-burning power station by 2025. I think for that question the views of experts are far more likely to be correct than the bloke up the pub. On questions of, say, economics then experience has taught me that said bloke up the pub is probably as likely to be correct than eminent economists (see Blanchflower and 5 million unemployed).
Yes, I agree. Likewise, in the technical field I know best, synthetic biology, I'd expect an expert to have better predictive powers of what x and y changes to a genome would have on the phenotype.
However, as I love to say in order to tease my very scientifically minded daughter who derides the social sciences as not being science, the hard sciences deal with the easy problems. The reason social sciences are not 'hard science' is that they are far more complex.
For my original comment, I was thinking more of complex problems which most people encounter (and recognize) in their daily lives rather than niche areas of science and technology.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Ha, ha - very true!
Kids are worth it for the lego alone. We've accumulated about a metric ton of the stuff. I intend passing it down as one of my dynasty's heirlooms.
Notable that, for all the talk of Chinese demographic crisis, the sheer size of China means that in one year its population has grown by six million people. They've added the population of Scotland and Wales - in 12 months. Only India has added more people in a single year.
The Chinese "demographic crisis" won't really hit for quite a while.
Japan is in a crisis, I wonder if China will be a much much much bigger Japan in a couple of decades time, both have a one party system more or less.
Japan is a constitutional monarchy at least - and they drive on the Left!
Any attempt to wave Palestinian flags at Hapoel’s stadium in Be’er Sheva, a city in the Negev desert, will not be tolerated"
They shouldn't have said that, there will be even more flags now.
Wait for the sob stories in the papers the week after, about the poor innocent souls who found themselves arrested and beaten up by the horrible Israeli policemen...
Attacks by Islamist militants, strikes and floods have caused a big fall in tourism in Paris. There were a million fewer visitors between January and June compared with the same period in 2015.
The impact of ISIS and the Syrian war on travel is serious. Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey, even parts of Europe. Some previously safe and easy to access areas now no go areas to Westerners.
This is a big deal that has somehow crept up on us slowly.
Part of the reason staycations are increasingly popular (along with the devaluation of Sterling). The Isle of Wight for me.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
They are worth every lost hour of sleep, nothing will prepare you for the moment when they shout 'Daddy' and you realise they mean you.
That moment when you come home from work, open the door an your kids run to you shouting Daddy!
Its when they run to the milkman shouting Daddy that the trouble starts...
Genuinely surprised and very sorry to hear people have fallen out and worse over Brexit. Surely friendship and family is more important than that.
I've only had one slight dust-up; most of my friends - REMAINERS and LEAVERS alike - are very sensible, and see that yes, friendship is way more important. Probably helps that most are over 40 and too wise or old to get hysterical. I'd say 60% were LEAVE
My Cornish family will have bloody stand-up rows and nurse decades-long vendettas over anything, let alone BREXIT, so they don't count (though on this the divide was equal and amicable)
There was a big division by party, but it was still less than I'd expected. 35% of Labour voters backed Leave, while 40% of Conservatives backed Remain.
Some Labour-voting areas were massively for Leave, but much of the Stockbroker Belt favoured Remain.
Not so sure - places like Sevenoaks were surprisingly leave. The analysis suggests that education, rather than wealth, was the more correlated with voting remain.
Education and wealth are themselves closely correlated.
Professional academics are overwhelmingly Remain, as they are overwhelmingly Left wing, and that certainly skews people with university post-graduate qualifications to Remain.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Ha, ha - very true!
Kids are worth it for the lego alone. We've accumulated about a metric ton of the stuff. I intend passing it down as one of my dynasty's heirlooms.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Ha, ha - very true!
Kids are worth it for the lego alone. We've accumulated about a metric ton of the stuff. I intend passing it down as one of my dynasty's heirlooms.
I have a load of Star Wars toys and Transformers dating from the mid-80s. Sadly, no kids
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Notable that, for all the talk of Chinese demographic crisis, the sheer size of China means that in one year its population has grown by six million people. They've added the population of Scotland and Wales - in 12 months. Only India has added more people in a single year.
The Chinese "demographic crisis" won't really hit for quite a while.
Japan is in a crisis, I wonder if China will be a much much much bigger Japan in a couple of decades time, both have a one party system more or less.
Japan is a constitutional monarchy at least - and they drive on the Left!
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed,
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
There's really nothing you can say to people without kids to make having kids sound good. Everything about your life will change, and not in a way which, from your childless perspective, can possibly seem positive. You will have less money, less time, less opportunity (no opportunity, really) to do the things you enjoy now, more drudgery, worse health... and yet people who have kids generally find it such a positive experience that they do it a second time, or a third. It's brilliant. Just not in ways you can really quite understand now. I'm about to take my oldest two (6 and 4) swimming, by the way, in a minute. That can't really sound much fun to you. But it will be. I'm genuinely looking forward to it. And you will sleep poorly. But really poor sleep only lasts for about 8 weeks. (That said, it's 15 months now since I had a lie in past 9 am.) And you will adjust, and it will be fine. (But until it is fine, prioritise sleep over all else except keeping you , wife and baby alive).
Thanks. To be fair, I don't sleep particularly well anyway.
Attacks by Islamist militants, strikes and floods have caused a big fall in tourism in Paris. There were a million fewer visitors between January and June compared with the same period in 2015.
The impact of ISIS and the Syrian war on travel is serious. Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey, even parts of Europe. Some previously safe and easy to access areas now no go areas to Westerners.
This is a big deal that has somehow crept up on us slowly.
Part of the reason staycations are increasingly popular (along with the devaluation of Sterling). The Isle of Wight for me.
I love the Isle of Wight, as does my wife.
I go there several times per year, I have family there.
Nothing is more exciting than the anticipation of a visit to the Vintage Bus museum!
Anyhow, its not like overcrowding isnt a problem. He could have genuinely found a packed train somewhere - its just staging it like this doesnt back up his honest politics meme.
Attacks by Islamist militants, strikes and floods have caused a big fall in tourism in Paris. There were a million fewer visitors between January and June compared with the same period in 2015.
The impact of ISIS and the Syrian war on travel is serious. Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey, even parts of Europe. Some previously safe and easy to access areas now no go areas to Westerners.
This is a big deal that has somehow crept up on us slowly.
Part of the reason staycations are increasingly popular (along with the devaluation of Sterling). The Isle of Wight for me.
I love the Isle of Wight, as does my wife.
I go there several times per year, I have family there.
Nothing is more exciting than the anticipation of a visit to the Vintage Bus museum!
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Ha, ha - very true!
Kids are worth it for the lego alone. We've accumulated about a metric ton of the stuff. I intend passing it down as one of my dynasty's heirlooms.
My son (5) is all about the lego... It's ace. We carpeted the living room in the stuff at the weekend in a mammoth build session.
Have you seen/got the Lego Adventure Book series? You really need these:
That doesn't look good for Corbyn. Though I'm sure his supporters are already saying Virgin Trains are working with MI5 in order to discredit the dear leader.
Kids are worth it for the lego alone. We've accumulated about a metric ton of the stuff. I intend passing it down as one of my dynasty's heirlooms.
Whatever happened to Meccano sets? I always found them much more entertaining than Lego, particularly when you could incorporate motors into what you built.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Ha, ha - very true!
Kids are worth it for the lego alone. We've accumulated about a metric ton of the stuff. I intend passing it down as one of my dynasty's heirlooms.
Lego is bloody expensive these days...
But you accrue a ton of it a dozen bricks at a time, over a period of a decade
Attacks by Islamist militants, strikes and floods have caused a big fall in tourism in Paris. There were a million fewer visitors between January and June compared with the same period in 2015.
The impact of ISIS and the Syrian war on travel is serious. Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey, even parts of Europe. Some previously safe and easy to access areas now no go areas to Westerners.
This is a big deal that has somehow crept up on us slowly.
Part of the reason staycations are increasingly popular (along with the devaluation of Sterling). The Isle of Wight for me.
I love the Isle of Wight, as does my wife.
I go there several times per year, I have family there.
Nothing is more exciting than the anticipation of a visit to the Vintage Bus museum!
Should've paid a quid and reserved one like everyone else.
You don't have to pay for seat reservations any more...
On Virgin East coast Newark to Kings Cross two weeks ago they asked for £27 for a seat booking, on top of £13.20 for the ticket.
Really?
Setting aside that £13.20 isn't a listed fare, that to me sounds like an excess fare has been charged. Anything as cheap as that on that route would be an Advance ticket, which comes with a compulsory reservation. Unless there's something very unusual going on.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
Just to add to the other replies. When my son was born (I was a late father) I was told by my boss that the first seventeen years were the worst. He was wrong, I worry more about him now he is 23 than I ever did when he was young or a teenager. He also costs me just as much money (Email's of the form "Dad can you let me have n pounds for ..." still arrive).
However, the loss of sleep for a few months (tip: encourage her to breastfeed) and the hemorrhaging of cash and all the other sacrifices that you will have to make will be more than adequately compensated for.
In half an hour I am off to pick the boy up from the airport, it never really stops.
Indeed, for problems that fall within the realm of complexity, such research as there is indicates that true experts (people with the 10,000 hours of engaged involvement or whatever the definition is) are often worse at predictions in their field of expertise than lay people.
Part of the explanation may be that they get too narrowly focused on issues they have studied, rather than elements they have not.
Up to a point, Mr. T, I suspect that is true but only for topics that the layman has a feel for from his normal life. When it comes to highly technical topics, the expert is, I think, far more likely to be correct. blockquote>
Yes, I agree. Likewise, in the technical field I know best, synthetic biology, I'd expect an expert to have better predictive powers of what x and y changes to a genome would have on the phenotype.
However, as I love to say in order to tease my very scientifically minded daughter who derides the social sciences as not being science, the hard sciences deal with the easy problems. The reason social sciences are not 'hard science' is that they are far more complex.
For my original comment, I was thinking more of complex problems which most people encounter (and recognize) in their daily lives rather than niche areas of science and technology.
Part of the explanation may be that they get too narrowly focused on issues they have studied, rather than elements they have not.
Up to a point, Mr. T, I suspect that is true but only for topics that the layman has a feel for from his normal life. When it comes to highly technical topics, the expert is, I think, far more likely to be correct.
).
Yes, I agree. Likewise, in the technical field I know best, synthetic biology, I'd expect an expert to have better predictive powers of what x and y changes to a genome would have on the phenotype.
However, as I love to say in order to tease my very scientifically minded daughter who derides the social sciences as not being science, the hard sciences deal with the easy problems. The reason social sciences are not 'hard science' is that they are far more complex.
For my original comment, I was thinking more of complex problems which most people encounter (and recognize) in their daily lives rather than niche areas of science and technology.
Yes. The expert can perform brain surgery or explain particle physics in a way that the ordinary voter can't.
The expert's view on how to vote however, is no more likely to be correct than that of the average voter.
I have just caught up with the latest YouGov poll putting the Tories 8% ahead at 38% to Labour’s 30% Whilst this is not good for Labour – it is also far from being disastrous in the context of May’s honeymoon and the internal party strife of recent months. It would imply the loss of just six seats which – if accurate – would boost the Tory majority to 24. That would be very far from being a Tory landslide. Moreover, most of the seats lost would have been gained by Labour in 2015 , and the new MPs – based on the evidence of recent elections – could reasonably expect to benefit from a first time incumbency bonus Going on to gain Tory seats, however, would be a different matter.
?
.
Labour's only real short-term 'hope' is that some sort of economic collapse, whether Brexit related or otherwise, completely discredits 'establishment' economics (and possibly politics) and people turn to Corbyn in desperation.
I believe the uncertainties to be considerable, and I quote the historical data simply to remind people that we have - in psephological terms - been close to this position in the past. Personally I cannot see Labour prospering under Corbyn in 2020 or whenever. I am less sure re-Owen Smith who has not been that sure footed at times in this campaign.On the other hand , I suspect he would be less likely to repel voters than Kinnock back in 1992 . He needs practice and polish - much less of a windbag though!
The trouble is that people do, really, want politicians now who are what they seem. Corbyn has this advantage - so does Theresa May, on her own terms - her disdain for the posh boys has, with hindsight, been there from the start. So also Sturgeon and Farron. Smith? Is he the Blairite of old, pretending now to be left wing? Is he Citizen Smith reborn? Is he simply a stalking horse, to clear the way for the next generation's Titans of leadership that Labour is keeping in the shadows? Or yet another empty labour career politician, trying to make the best of the chances that come his way?
I think that is pretty fair comment really. I am not sure re-Teresa May - far too early to say. She is not charismatic and for the moment that is actually to her advantage.Nor does she arouse strong feelings in the way that Thatcher & Blair did.As a non-Tory I am quite comfortable with her.For now she is seen as competent and a safe pair of hands. It remains to be seen how long that will last.
That doesn't look good for Corbyn. Though I'm sure his supporters are already saying Virgin Trains are working with MI5 in order to discredit the dear leader.
Labour Press Release:
The unreserved seats in question are blue, indicating they are Blairite, Tory scum-only seats and therefore the anointed one could not sully his suit trousers with this filth.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
It's like Brexit! Take the leap. You won't regret it - in the end. You may well regret not having kids - bitterly. Like friends of mine.
I know where I'd rather be. But equally there are childless people who are perfectly happy. Of course. And you do save a LOT of money...
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Ha, ha - very true!
Kids are worth it for the lego alone. We've accumulated about a metric ton of the stuff. I intend passing it down as one of my dynasty's heirlooms.
My son (5) is all about the lego... It's ace. We carpeted the living room in the stuff at the weekend in a mammoth build session.
Have you seen/got the Lego Adventure Book series? You really need these:
''Kids are worth it for the lego alone. We've accumulated about a metric ton of the stuff. I intend passing it down as one of my dynasty's heirlooms.''
Now that my kids have grown up, I do miss the 'kids films that are entertain adults too'.
SeanT raving about the Lego Movie in particular triggered a bout of yearning.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
Indeed, I only used it as 2030-2016 = 14
But the point is good. My daughters are now 10. There have been moments when I regretted - briefly - having kids (especially in the first two depressing years of nappies, ESPECIALLY in the first dark months of no-sleep) but mostly they've been great years, despite the opportunities lost and money spent blah blah
I can't imagine life without my kids; having kids was the best thing I ever did. But could I have predicted how they would change me, and my life? Not for a moment. I had no idea. Not a clue.
Ten or 20 years after Brexit might be similar.
And now, WORK, to pay for my kids.
We are thinking of starting a family next year.
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
Just to add to the other replies. When my son was born (I was a late father) I was told by my boss that the first seventeen years were the worst. He was wrong, I worry more about him now he is 23 than I ever did when he was young or a teenager. He also costs me just as much money (Email's of the form "Dad can you let me have n pounds for ..." still arrive).
However, the loss of sleep for a few months (tip: encourage her to breastfeed) and the hemorrhaging of cash and all the other sacrifices that you will have to make will be more than adequately compensated for.
In half an hour I am off to pick the boy up from the airport, it never really stops.
So called experts should, generally, be better placed to make informed judgements, since they spent much of their lives considering all aspects of problems that we come to cold and judge by a mixture of instinct and first thoughts. Their weak spot, however, is that they operate surrounded by other experts and are therefore vulnerable to blind spots if a factor previously unconsidered comes at them from left field.
I have been dubbed an expert (by people who would know, I hasten to add) during two periods of my career. It's not a magical power. I was mostly conscious of the huge amount of things I didn't know rather than the things I did.
My abiding view is the global economy has passed beyond the humanly comprehensible event horizon. It's just too complex, with too many factors to model accurately. Hence, while I'm perfectly happy to use the models that are available (e.g. NIESR), I do so in the knowledge that as far as predicting 2030 economic out turns is concerned, I may as well be examining chicken entrails and rattling the bones.
This is undoubtedly true and there are many fields of economics which are increasingly detached from the day to day experience.
For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?
Does cutting interest rates really stimulate a modern economy with more savers than borrowers? Or does it encourage people to save even more? Or, in the case of our recent cut, make people assume that there are troubles ahead?
Why is it suddenly ok for our government to buy up a significant percentage of its debt with money created for this purpose? Why has this policy had so little effect? And how do we avoid the trap that Japan has now been in for more than 20 years?
What we are missing is not ever more sophisticated models (because as you say the quantity of data is simply unending) but a structure that allows us to identify a number of key indicators that give us a sensible direction of travel. We need a JM Keynes for our day, someone who can give us a new vocabulary that can help us make sense of where we are and, more importantly, where we are going.
Ian Dunt Verified account @IanDunt I have never spoken to so many senior people in diverse fields who are as united in their despair over something as Brexit.
Well there's his problem, perhaps for a change he should speak to the many, many non "senior people" who make up the electorate of this country.
Why speak to experts when the uninformed are both more numerous and easier to get hold of?
Outside re time).
So called exes at them from left field.
I have d rattling the bones.
Thatretends to try reveals their ignorance or duplicity.
Isn't 14 a crappy age for all parents?
.
An absolute shedload. But worth every penny.
Technically not every penny. There is a whole heap of plastic shite we've accrued that would have been better spent on beer.
Ha, ha - very true!
Kids are worth it for the lego alone. We've accumulated about a metric ton of the stuff. I intend passing it down as one of my dynasty's heirlooms.
Lego is bloody expensive these days...
And not nearly as good either. Most of the kits my kids got were for one particular design with lots and lots of fiddly bits that were no good for anything else. This strikes me as the exact opposite of what lego is supposed to be about. You might as well buy an airfix model.
Comments
The Olympics gives an interesting perspective.
Eire got a paltry two silvers in Rio, outside the union. Her Majesty's loyal welsh subjects got ten medals, however, including four golds.
Just sayin'
Nevertheless people can answer 'Labour' to the pollsters now, without having to worry about what sort of offering a potential labour government will be putting forward. In an actual election I cannot see the state of Labour, its platform and likely campaign, whether under Corby or Citizen Smith, as doing anything other than repelling a proportion of its current support.
Which could put us in truly unprecedented circumstances of an unpopular government, unpopular opposition, and (ex Scotland) no third party surge either. Who wins then, I have no idea. Probably the government.
Labour's only real short-term 'hope' is that some sort of economic collapse, whether Brexit related or otherwise, completely discredits 'establishment' economics (and possibly politics) and people turn to Corbyn in desperation.
Wtf??!! Also Romania and Bulgaria population down by only 0.7% bad, but not ad bad as it could be.
What type of lurcher? A friend has a lovely Deerhound/Collie mix
"We need more trains. They are very expensive. Isn't that a good argument for public ownership?"
Um . No. It's an argument for increasing investment in trains. It may be public ownership is the right model to adopt but he's skipped several steps.
https://twitter.com/libby_brooks/status/768064029633998848
Call me selfish: all I can think of is the sleep loss.
It's 'putting me off', if you know what I mean.
Comments are a hoot too.
To complain to the zoo about the wanking monkeys?
http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/2713004-To-complain-to-the-zoo-about-the-wanking-monkeys?pg=1
Corbyn is also fundamentally wrong. To run more trains at peak times, it is the track and signalling which need to be improved.
His argument would be like saying: London is very busy - we need more cars.
Looking forward to seeing how the Scottish government proposes to do things differently (as they always say) when GERS are published tomorrow.....
Higher taxes?
Lower spending?
More borrowing?
Which will it be?
(1) We have a problem, and a challenge
(2) Common ownership of the means of production and distribution is the ideal state for humankind
Therefore, the solution to the challenge is nationalisation.
Personally I cannot see Labour prospering under Corbyn in 2020 or whenever. I am less sure re-Owen Smith who has not been that sure footed at times in this campaign.On the other hand , I suspect he would be less likely to repel voters than Kinnock back in 1992 . He needs practice and polish - much less of a windbag though!
They shouldn't have said that, there will be even more flags now.
There were a million fewer visitors between January and June compared with the same period in 2015.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37164217
If TM does not scrp HPC in September I shall be bitterly disappointed because we will have missed out on a magnificent opportunity.
I'm about to take my oldest two (6 and 4) swimming, by the way, in a minute. That can't really sound much fun to you. But it will be. I'm genuinely looking forward to it.
And you will sleep poorly. But really poor sleep only lasts for about 8 weeks. (That said, it's 15 months now since I had a lie in past 9 am.) And you will adjust, and it will be fine. (But until it is fine, prioritise sleep over all else except keeping you , wife and baby alive).
This is a big deal that has somehow crept up on us slowly.
I had been wary of having children until then, but after listening to her bitterly regret prioritising today over tomorrow I had a rethink and my gf and I spoke about having kids for the first time seriously.
Main reason I might be up for it is because I'm a bit bored of the couple-only life, which is fun but too easy and self-indulgent, and I'm also curious.
However, as I love to say in order to tease my very scientifically minded daughter who derides the social sciences as not being science, the hard sciences deal with the easy problems. The reason social sciences are not 'hard science' is that they are far more complex.
For my original comment, I was thinking more of complex problems which most people encounter (and recognize) in their daily lives rather than niche areas of science and technology.
Professional academics are overwhelmingly Remain, as they are overwhelmingly Left wing, and that certainly skews people with university post-graduate qualifications to Remain.
HAHAHA, as I believe our resident author puts it.
https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/768068266698895360
Nothing is more exciting than the anticipation of a visit to the Vintage Bus museum!
Anyhow, its not like overcrowding isnt a problem. He could have genuinely found a packed train somewhere - its just staging it like this doesnt back up his honest politics meme.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/753302419761750017
Have you seen/got the Lego Adventure Book series? You really need these:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/LEGO-Adventure-Book-Vol-Dinosaurs/dp/1593274424
It is under threat.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
Setting aside that £13.20 isn't a listed fare, that to me sounds like an excess fare has been charged. Anything as cheap as that on that route would be an Advance ticket, which comes with a compulsory reservation. Unless there's something very unusual going on.
NEW anti-
CorbynSmith ThreadHowever, the loss of sleep for a few months (tip: encourage her to breastfeed) and the hemorrhaging of cash and all the other sacrifices that you will have to make will be more than adequately compensated for.
In half an hour I am off to pick the boy up from the airport, it never really stops.
The unreserved seats in question are blue, indicating they are Blairite, Tory scum-only seats and therefore the anointed one could not sully his suit trousers with this filth.
UK: 65,111,143
Ireland: 4,713,993
Isle of Man: 88,421
Channel Islands: 164,466
Total: 70,078,023
But others are quite reasonable - pocket money even, suitable to show saving for a few weeks can buy something good.
The big buckets of assorted bricks are the best value though.
Except this, which is currently on my desk at work. This was worth every penny:
http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/Doctor-Who-21304
Now that my kids have grown up, I do miss the 'kids films that are entertain adults too'.
SeanT raving about the Lego Movie in particular triggered a bout of yearning.
For example, is it really true that free trade is a good thing? Especially if you are in a western country whose workforce are going to be undercut by developing economies? At what point does the unemployment, cutting of real wages and inequalities become more of an issue than the cheaper products?
Does cutting interest rates really stimulate a modern economy with more savers than borrowers? Or does it encourage people to save even more? Or, in the case of our recent cut, make people assume that there are troubles ahead?
Why is it suddenly ok for our government to buy up a significant percentage of its debt with money created for this purpose? Why has this policy had so little effect? And how do we avoid the trap that Japan has now been in for more than 20 years?
What we are missing is not ever more sophisticated models (because as you say the quantity of data is simply unending) but a structure that allows us to identify a number of key indicators that give us a sensible direction of travel. We need a JM Keynes for our day, someone who can give us a new vocabulary that can help us make sense of where we are and, more importantly, where we are going.
We live in hope......
By the way, if they're rubbish now, why was the SNP Independence White Paper, all 600+ pages of it, based on them?