A bunch of leftoids on my facebook feed are annoyed at ditching the HRA, now I know the government are on the right track. If so many lawyers and other lefty idiots are upset they must be doing something right.
I know one or two friends who post Left but who vote Right, or are floating voters who opted Tory last year anyway.
Facebook posts on things like HRA, junior doctors, TTIP, refugees and the EU are annoying but not necessarily indicative of a Corbynista.
I've read enough now to know that while the heads of agreement might (might!) come quite quickly, there are going to be huge chunks of boring detail (e.g. transitional EU27 access to UK fishing waters, legislative equivalency on product name misuse, rinse & repeat 10,000 times) that will bore the electorate to tears, and only matter to sectional interests.
I also suspect that when push comes to shove some, if not many, of those sectional interests will discover that, far from Brexit being advantageous to their particular interest, the opposite will apply.
I suspect that when all’s said and done we’ll end up worse off than we were before. It’ll be the opposite of marry in haste, repent at leisure.
Wouldn't have thought so. Isn't Liverpool the least multicultural place in England?
Perhaps not today, but 100 years ago it would have been considered to be so by the standards of the day.
Irish immigration was very high. That, Lancashire and North Welsh immigration mixing together is presumably where the bizarre, and borderline unintelligible, accent comes from.
Those (usually financial services) exam questions: when would you not decide against not disclosing to your client she should not invest in shares of London Bridge?
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
King Cole, in the short term, that's possible. In the long term, having trade deals done for British rather than EU advantage, will be better for us, as will being out of the EU when it collapses.
Mr. Topping, financial stuff seems bloody opaque to me. Cunningly, I don't have enough money to worry about it
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
I can't get on to make a prediction. Not too concerned because I have absolutely no idea what turnout is likely to be like standing the various court decisions of who is eligible.
The electorate is c.647,000. Last year it was 554,272 and the turnout was 422,644.
Interesting. Just 90,000 more than last year. If Smith were to achieve an unlikely victory, it would need (1) significant numbers of new sign ups for Smith via Saving Labour and (2) sign ups for Corbyn being much less than hyped, new sign ups being offset by some 2015 Corbyn supporters not signing up again.and (3) some switching of 2015 Corbyn voters to Smith. There is evidence of 1 and 3 happening, does the low 90k figure imply that 2 is as well?
I think (but others may correct me) that the electorate excludes the 100K or so who joined in the last 6 months, the consensus seemingly being that this cohort was on the whole though not overwhelmingly pro-Corbyn (otherwise the anti-Corbyn faction wouldn't have bothered to exclude them). So the 90K consists of people who joined since last year (net over those who lapsed), NOT including people who signed up as the new leadership contest started to seem likely, BUT including those who were so keen that they forked out £25.
I've read enough now to know that while the heads of agreement might (might!) come quite quickly, there are going to be huge chunks of boring detail (e.g. transitional EU27 access to UK fishing waters, legislative equivalency on product name misuse, rinse & repeat 10,000 times) that will bore the electorate to tears, and only matter to sectional interests.
I also suspect that when push comes to shove some, if not many, of those sectional interests will discover that, far from Brexit being advantageous to their particular interest, the opposite will apply.
I suspect that when all’s said and done we’ll end up worse off than we were before. It’ll be the opposite of marry in haste, repent at leisure.
I'm afraid I take the rather boring middle ground of there being winners and losers, just as there were when we joined, after we left the ERM and during the long IT revolution (that we seem to forget now) and the rise of online commerce. I do agree that this is self-inflicted disruption of course.
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
I endorsed Corbyn in an email to Broxtowe members last night.
Nick Palmer fully committed to "Labour Lemmings For Corbyn"
What a farcical and desperate mess Labour have become. Years in the political wilderness beckon as a substantial proportion of the Labour vote drifts away determined not to allow the Jezzbollah the reigns of power.
What comes first ....
A. The next Labour government. B. Sotheby's auctioning OGH's golden strand Faberge hairpieces. C. Malcolmg denouncing turnips D. Asteroid hit organized from Finchley Road
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
That already happens with other nations that are inside the Single Market but outside the Customs Union. EG the whole EFTA.
That is where Country of Origin rules come in I believe.
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
Tariff free doesn't mean freedom from country-of-origin rules.
I've read enough now to know that while the heads of agreement might (might!) come quite quickly, there are going to be huge chunks of boring detail (e.g. transitional EU27 access to UK fishing waters, legislative equivalency on product name misuse, rinse & repeat 10,000 times) that will bore the electorate to tears, and only matter to sectional interests.
.
I also suspect that when push comes to shove some, if not many, of those sectional interests will discover that, far from Brexit being advantageous to their particular interest, the opposite will apply.
I suspect that when all’s said and done we’ll end up worse off than we were before. It’ll be the opposite of marry in haste, repent at leisure.
I'm afraid I take the rather boring middle ground of there being winners and losers, just as there were when we joined, after we left the ERM and during the long IT revolution (that we seem to forget now) and the rise of online commerce. I do agree that this is self-inflicted disruption of course.
OKC reply: Agree. What little “inside” information I have and the very few straws that have blown past, plus of course experience of humanity, suggests winners, losers and no change.
Political problem of course is that, as you rightly said, it’s all going to take a long time.
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
Tariff free doesn't mean freedom from country-of-origin rules.
Ta - and to P Thomson too! Is there therefore a booming industry in reengineering widgets sufficiently to change country of origin? Is that possible? Is coffee grown in Africa but roasted in Germany African or German?
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
No.
Otherwise Iceland and Switzerland's free trade deals with China would have punched a hole in the CET. (Or, for that matter, the EFTA-Canada one.)
There are Rules of Origin provisions in trade agreements that prevent re-export.
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
Tariff free doesn't mean freedom from country-of-origin rules.
Ta - and to P Thomson too! Is there therefore a booming industry in reengineering widgets sufficiently to change country of origin? Is that possible? Is coffee grown in Africa but roasted in Germany African or German?
There are also local content rules in most trade agreements to stop that kind of rascality.
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
Not an expert but believe you can use "port of origin" regulations. A little more paperwork but solved this problem
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
No.
Otherwise Iceland and Switzerland's free trade deals with China would have punched a hole in the CET. (Or, for that matter, the EFTA-Canada one.)
There are Rules of Origin provisions in trade agreements that prevent re-export.
This is why I love PB. I've learnt something this morning. Didn't know about Rules of Origin.
A bunch of leftoids on my facebook feed are annoyed at ditching the HRA, now I know the government are on the right track. If so many lawyers and other lefty idiots are upset they must be doing something right.
A surprisingly high number of people have the view that we had no human rights in the UK before the HRA of 1998. They're usually the same people who think Abu Hamza's right to a family life is more important than the government's right to kick out undesirable foreigners.
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
No.
Otherwise Iceland and Switzerland's free trade deals with China would have punched a hole in the CET. (Or, for that matter, the EFTA-Canada one.)
There are Rules of Origin provisions in trade agreements that prevent re-export.
Most trade doesn't happen randomly, with a ship pitching up at Rotterdam and conducting a dockside auction.
For projects we used to bid against an ITT or RFP. For longer term arrangements we negotiated framework agreements that satisfied all the necessary rules for local legislative and regulatory compliance, whatever they might be.
A bunch of leftoids on my facebook feed are annoyed at ditching the HRA, now I know the government are on the right track. If so many lawyers and other lefty idiots are upset they must be doing something right.
A surprisingly high number of people have the view that we had no human rights in the UK before the HRA of 1998. They're usually the same people who think Abu Hamza's right to a family life is more important than the government's right to kick out undesirable foreigners.
We tended to work, did we not, on the principle that anything was OK unless it was forbidden. Unless it, more or less, clashed with the Ten Commandments or Sermon on the Mount. As was, IIRC, pointed out a few days ago. Somewhat to my surprise admittedly, but on reflection the reasoning seemed clear.
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
I read that as a Remoaners are getting on everyone's nerves gag...
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
It's one of the more balanced comedic outlets I've ever come across to be frank - on Brexit it definitely trended Remain more heavily, but it is refreshing to see them take down both the left and right on occasion.
The most damaging thing about the Jezbollah takeover of Labour is the way many otherwise sane people have been forced to take the line the Jeremy Corbyn is a "decent" man.
A bunch of leftoids on my facebook feed are annoyed at ditching the HRA, now I know the government are on the right track. If so many lawyers and other lefty idiots are upset they must be doing something right.
A surprisingly high number of people have the view that we had no human rights in the UK before the HRA of 1998. They're usually the same people who think Abu Hamza's right to a family life is more important than the government's right to kick out undesirable foreigners.
We tended to work, did we not on the principle that anything was OK unless it was forbidden. Unless it, more or less, clashed with the Ten Commandments or Sernon on the Mount. As was, IIRC, pointed out a few days ago. Somewaht to my surprise admittedly, but on reflection the reasoning seemed clear.
I'm trying to be a better person and forgive people for being younger than me. There appears to be no historical ground truth these days, just a lot of shrieking and mythologising of the past. It must be very confusing.
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
Tariff free doesn't mean freedom from country-of-origin rules.
Ta - and to P Thomson too! Is there therefore a booming industry in reengineering widgets sufficiently to change country of origin? Is that possible? Is coffee grown in Africa but roasted in Germany African or German?
There are also local content rules in most trade agreements to stop that kind of rascality.
A bunch of leftoids on my facebook feed are annoyed at ditching the HRA, now I know the government are on the right track. If so many lawyers and other lefty idiots are upset they must be doing something right.
A surprisingly high number of people have the view that we had no human rights in the UK before the HRA of 1998. They're usually the same people who think Abu Hamza's right to a family life is more important than the government's right to kick out undesirable foreigners.
We tended to work, did we not on the principle that anything was OK unless it was forbidden. Unless it, more or less, clashed with the Ten Commandments or Sernon on the Mount. As was, IIRC, pointed out a few days ago. Somewaht to my surprise admittedly, but on reflection the reasoning seemed clear.
I'm trying to be a better person and forgive people for being younger than me. There appears to be no historical ground truth these days, just a lot of shrieking and mythologising of the past. It must be very confusing.
Henry “History is bunk” Ford has a lot to answer for!
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
The gag - surely - is that there are a bunch of Remoaners who would rather people lost their jobs and be proved right.
Mr. G, when considering how the negotiations will go both the domestic situation and opening position of the EU must be considered.
May can get away with a middling option. If she went for a departure in name only, she'll be defenestrated.
I think the first thing to remember about these negotiations is... Everything you see in the papers is crap
There is literally no chance we won't leave the customs union. So, demands that we leave it are merely positioning.
Likewise, suggesting that we're not going to agree the free movement of goods between the EU and the UK and might go 'World Trade Organisation' are just posturing. It would be too damaging for either the UK or EU economies to go WTO. Companies supply chains don't change overnight; firms have multi-year supply contracts. Interjecting tariffs would be disastrous for a lot of businesses.
Surely leaving the customs union is an essential pre-requisite for signing trade agreements with other countries / blocs? Otherwise every deal the UK made would have to be subject to EU approval and potential veto?
in any case, even if it is initially a negotiating position, it has to be one the government is prepared to implement if necessary otherwise the other side won't take it seriously.
Well yes. We will be leaving the customs union. I think you misread my post.
I'm in agreement with you Robert - but not entirely sure how this happens. If we leave the customs union but have free movement of goods with Europe, don't we suddenly become the free port of entry for all goods worldwide trying to get into EU (or rather, those that were happy to negotiate tariff free entry on - such as NZ Sauvignon), thereby destroying the common external tariff?
Tariff free doesn't mean freedom from country-of-origin rules.
Ta - and to P Thomson too! Is there therefore a booming industry in reengineering widgets sufficiently to change country of origin? Is that possible? Is coffee grown in Africa but roasted in Germany African or German?
There are also local content rules in most trade agreements to stop that kind of rascality.
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
The gag - surely - is that there are a bunch of Remoaners who would rather people lost their jobs and be proved right.
What makes the Daily Mash so funny is how true so much of it rings. Just on here we have had a few Remaoners take a very similar line to that, revelling in any negative indicator and hiding any good news. Hoping for the economy to turn to shit so that there is a chance the vote can be reversed.
The racist leave jibe hurts because I campaigned with some people in the leave camp I would not normally associated with for that reason.
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
The gag - surely - is that there are a bunch of Remoaners who would rather people lost their jobs and be proved right.
Exactly. It's a (very) tentatively anti-Remain post, quite remarkable from the Daily Mash.
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
The gag - surely - is that there are a bunch of Remoaners who would rather people lost their jobs and be proved right.
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
The gag - surely - is that there are a bunch of Remoaners who would rather people lost their jobs and be proved right.
There's no gag there - it is simply a line some nervous exiters are taking to try and close down any discussion of the risk we are about to take.
A bunch of leftoids on my facebook feed are annoyed at ditching the HRA, now I know the government are on the right track. If so many lawyers and other lefty idiots are upset they must be doing something right.
A surprisingly high number of people have the view that we had no human rights in the UK before the HRA of 1998. They're usually the same people who think Abu Hamza's right to a family life is more important than the government's right to kick out undesirable foreigners.
We tended to work, did we not, on the principle that anything was OK unless it was forbidden. Unless it, more or less, clashed with the Ten Commandments or Sermon on the Mount. As was, IIRC, pointed out a few days ago. Somewhat to my surprise admittedly, but on reflection the reasoning seemed clear.
Edited for spelling
There's certainly a clash between the Common Law system (everything is allowed unless it's prohibited) and the Civil Law system in most of the EU (everything is prohibited unless it's allowed), not helped by politically appointed activist judges. This represents something of a culture clash to us, we just don't understand the way they think.
Yes, the Common Law is basically derived from the Ten Commandments - one may not kill, or steal, or chase another's wife etc - things that we should know without having Parliament pass a bill about it. IIRC the first time that Murder was mentioned in legislation was the Act abolishing the death penalty in the 1960s.
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
The gag - surely - is that there are a bunch of Remoaners who would rather people lost their jobs and be proved right.
What makes the Daily Mash so funny is how true so much of it rings. Just on here we have had a few Remaoners take a very similar line to that, revelling in any negative indicator and hiding any good news. Hoping for the economy to turn to shit so that there is a chance the vote can be reversed.
The racist leave jibe hurts because I campaigned with some people in the leave camp I would not normally associated with for that reason.
Quite. It burdens my conscience that I voted with Fox, Farage and the Daily Express. It makes me feel so dirty. But then I reflect that I could have voted with Geldof, Church and Thompson and I feel less shabby.
It's just getting silly. Clearly plenty of people are not happy with Corbynite Labour but think the membership is trending that way, in fact they are apoplectic it is trending that way. But equally they emotionally cannot handle the thought of actually splitting, so are seeking safe ways to protest the change in the party without taking the very difficult step of actually leaving. Which is fine if you are a very small cadre of malcontents like Corbyn and co, but not when it is supposedly dozens. Him winning does not erase their problems with him, so the options are be quiet or leave, not pretend you can be separate but still keep your brand.
I've read enough now to know that while the heads of agreement might (might!) come quite quickly, there are going to be huge chunks of boring detail (e.g. transitional EU27 access to UK fishing waters, legislative equivalency on product name misuse, rinse & repeat 10,000 times) that will bore the electorate to tears, and only matter to sectional interests.
I also suspect that when push comes to shove some, if not many, of those sectional interests will discover that, far from Brexit being advantageous to their particular interest, the opposite will apply.
I suspect that when all’s said and done we’ll end up worse off than we were before. It’ll be the opposite of marry in haste, repent at leisure.
Your 'suspicion' merely being a restatement of your previous prejudices
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I have a feeling Owen might actually win as Corbyn couldn't organise a train seat on a train.
Whereas we have of course all been stunned into silent admiration for the brilliant strategic insight and tiptop organisational skills of the anti-Corbyn effort.....
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
The gag - surely - is that there are a bunch of Remoaners who would rather people lost their jobs and be proved right.
What makes the Daily Mash so funny is how true so much of it rings. Just on here we have had a few Remaoners take a very similar line to that, revelling in any negative indicator and hiding any good news. Hoping for the economy to turn to shit so that there is a chance the vote can be reversed.
The racist leave jibe hurts because I campaigned with some people in the leave camp I would not normally associated with for that reason.
Quite. It burdens my conscience that I voted with Fox, Farage and the Daily Express. It makes me feel so dirty. But then I reflect that I could have voted with Geldof, Church and Thompson and I feel less shabby.
Much of the Leave campaign was focused on things I have no problems with, and the overly optimistic fervour was troubling. I almost cracked, but went with my head not my heart and plumped for Leave in order to be consistent. It makes things weird in some ways given bedfellows, as you say.
It's just getting silly. Clearly plenty of people are not happy with Corbynite Labour but think the membership is trending that way, in fact they are apoplectic it is trending that way. But equally they emotionally cannot handle the thought of actually splitting, so are seeking safe ways to protest the change in the party without taking the very difficult step of actually leaving. Which is fine if you are a very small cadre of malcontents like Corbyn and co, but not when it is supposedly dozens. Him winning does not erase their problems with him, so the options are be quiet or leave, not pretend you can be separate but still keep your brand.
The story of their coup from the start has been an attempt to climb a mountain by tiptoe. They haven't done anything the least bit bold or courageous - even now there are suggestions the whole thing is a front for 'real' leadership candidates, who have yet to emerge, let alone actually demonstrate any leadership.
I've read enough now to know that while the heads of agreement might (might!) come quite quickly, there are going to be huge chunks of boring detail (e.g. transitional EU27 access to UK fishing waters, legislative equivalency on product name misuse, rinse & repeat 10,000 times) that will bore the electorate to tears, and only matter to sectional interests.
I also suspect that when push comes to shove some, if not many, of those sectional interests will discover that, far from Brexit being advantageous to their particular interest, the opposite will apply.
I suspect that when all’s said and done we’ll end up worse off than we were before. It’ll be the opposite of marry in haste, repent at leisure.
Your 'suspicion' merely being a restatement of your previous prejudices
You mean of my carefully considered opinion? Possibly, although I do tend to agree that normally things will turn out neither as good as one hoped or as bad as one feared.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think it's because the media are overwhelmingly London-centric. Brexit hasn't changed any of the fundamentals in the housing market with the exception of the capital, and even then I suspect its (as Robert has pointed out) likely mostly confined to the thinly traded high end of the market.
There are plenty of bad things about Brexit. Some of the effects are inadvertently benign - house price moderation and modest inflation being two of them.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
Good to hear. Can we now get some decent planning reform on the Autumn legislative program please, with a new Milton Keynes or two thrown in for good measure!
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
I've yet to talk to anyone who thinks the interest rate cut is a good idea. Consensus is that it is perfectly designed to hurt banks without helping anyone. Then again, i do hang out with a lot of bankers...
(View is thatCarney felt he needed to be seen to do something rather than actually having any worthwhile ideas)
I'm trying to be a better person and forgive people for being younger than me. There appears to be no historical ground truth these days, just a lot of shrieking and mythologising of the past. It must be very confusing.
Henry “History is bunk” Ford has a lot to answer for!
I think one of the problems is that a lot of people are badly informed by modern media. In the old days if you wanted to read the news you had to buy a newspaper. Articles were written by real journalists, a sub-editor checked the writing and corrected mistakes, and generally there was a degree of professionalism and competency that is often absent now. There also tended to be a strict dividing line between reporting and comment.
Nowadays people read a badly summarised click-bait article on a site that aggregates news and considered themselves informed even though they only took in the headline and skimmed the rest. You only have to read the comments on a site to see that many people clearly don't read the articles they comment on.
We have a lot of information at out fingertips nowadays, but a hell of a lot of it, and particularly the popular content, is very poor quality.
Then on top of that there's the bias and filtering of social media which turns all sorts of complicated issues into a single bold lie, and the stupidest people tend to have the loudest voices. Anyone who knows something about a topic, and understands the complexities, gets drowned out by the perpetually outraged.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
As an aside, a friend of mine who runs a jewellery business tells me that business is booming. He's usually quite a good early barometer for the economy, so take it as a (very small) piece of anecdata that backs up your view.
The big risk is construction spending, which is more of a Q1, Q2 next year story. The housing market in North London seems to have frozen up, with the median age of properties on Zoopla for Hampstead having increased 12 days in the last 15! Prices are off a little bit too.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
A bunch of leftoids on my facebook feed are annoyed at ditching the HRA, now I know the government are on the right track. If so many lawyers and other lefty idiots are upset they must be doing something right.
A surprisingly high number of people have the view that we had no human rights in the UK before the HRA of 1998. They're usually the same people who think Abu Hamza's right to a family life is more important than the government's right to kick out undesirable foreigners.
We tended to work, did we not on the principle that anything was OK unless it was forbidden. Unless it, more or less, clashed with the Ten Commandments or Sernon on the Mount. As was, IIRC, pointed out a few days ago. Somewaht to my surprise admittedly, but on reflection the reasoning seemed clear.
I'm trying to be a better person and forgive people for being younger than me. There appears to be no historical ground truth these days, just a lot of shrieking and mythologising of the past. It must be very confusing.
Henry “History is bunk” Ford has a lot to answer for!
I watched a fascinating Henry Ford docu on PBS UK the other week - he sounded like a complete selfish horror by the end of it. Well worth a watch - they repeat stuff very regularly.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
Yes indeed. Fairly unsurprisingly, after an initial shock that created a week or so of paralysis, since nothing has actually happened, most people settle down and carry on as if nothing has happened.
We won't actually know very much about the impacts of Brexit, good and bad, until at least a year or two after it has actually happened. Meanwhile all the comment about this or that indicator is just froth.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
As an aside, a friend of mine who runs a jewellery business tells me that business is booming. He's usually quite a good early barometer for the economy, so take it as a (very small) piece of anecdata that backs up your view.
The big risk is construction spending, which is more of a Q1, Q2 next year story. The housing market in North London seems to have frozen up, with the median age of properties on Zoopla for Hampstead having increased 12 days in the last 15! Prices are off a little bit too.
May needs to order up some massive infrastructure pronto. Heathrow, Crossrail 2. Do it. Show we're about our business; the country that BEAT CHINA IN THE OLYMPICS.
Talking of China, London property has slowed, for sure - but I wonder how many foreign investors are looking at London property now, and thinking: Hmmm. For most foreigners, property prices in this ultra-attractive city (from an investment POV) have just dropped 10-15%. For Japanese and Swiss etc, they've dropped about 30% over the last two years.
At some point a new wave of foreign cash could sweep in, as nervous punters decide London isn't going anywhere, and they want some of the fun, as weak sterling makes everything so cheap.
We could, literally, see a Brexit boom.
We could.
On the other hand, I suspect there will be fewer expats on corporate rentals. And all the house rentals in Primrose Hill, Belsize Park, St John's Wood and Hampstead are corporate. That's going to really pressure rental yields.
Indeed. If there is a significant economic hit, it will come gradually over the next couple of years as companies hold off investment and hiring staff whilst they wait to see what happens. The economics is going to depend on the politics; at the moment the politics is very unclear, and it may stay that way for quite a while.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
I've yet to talk to anyone who thinks the interest rate cut is a good idea. Consensus is that it is perfectly designed to hurt banks without helping anyone. Then again, i do hang out with a lot of bankers...
(View is thatCarney felt he needed to be seen to do something rather than actually having any worthwhile ideas)
Does anyone understand why rates got cut? The fall in the pound should be expected to bring some medium term inflation, so the theory says that the next movement would be up rather than down.
But hey, how much conventional economic theory has been thrown out of the window in the past 7 or 8 years? IMHO The rock bottom interest rates have really served their purpose now, they're screwing up savings and pensions, and exacerbating housing problems.
I must also note that our forecasting unit has upgraded growth from 1.1% to 1.5% and now expects no contraction at all in any quarter and definitely no recession.
There are a few people in that unit who must have hated writing the note for the forecast upgrade, they are the worst kind of Remoaner described so well by the Daily Mash.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
As an aside, a friend of mine who runs a jewellery business tells me that business is booming. He's usually quite a good early barometer for the economy, so take it as a (very small) piece of anecdata that backs up your view.
The big risk is construction spending, which is more of a Q1, Q2 next year story. The housing market in North London seems to have frozen up, with the median age of properties on Zoopla for Hampstead having increased 12 days in the last 15! Prices are off a little bit too.
May needs to order up some massive infrastructure pronto. Heathrow, Crossrail 2. Do it. Show we're about our business; the country that BEAT CHINA IN THE OLYMPICS.
Talking of China, London property has slowed, for sure - but I wonder how many foreign investors are looking at London property now, and thinking: Hmmm. For most foreigners, property prices in this ultra-attractive city (from an investment POV) have just dropped 10-15%. For Japanese and Swiss etc, they've dropped about 30% over the last two years.
At some point a new wave of foreign cash could sweep in, as nervous punters decide London isn't going anywhere, and they want some of the fun, as weak sterling makes everything so cheap.
We could, literally, see a Brexit boom.
We could.
On the other hand, I suspect there will be fewer expats on corporate rentals. And all the house rentals in Primrose Hill, Belsize Park, St John's Wood and Hampstead are corporate. That's going to really pressure rental yields.
And as long as the expectations for the currency remain negative (which they will, for the period leading up to actual exit, and possibly for some time afterwards) then investing here doesn't look such a good prospect from the outside
I see the professionally offended are expressing faux-outrage over Heather Wheeler's light-hearted comment on twitter that the British Empire finished first in the Olympics.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
Yes indeed. Fairly unsurprisingly, after an initial shock that created a week or so of paralysis, since nothing has actually happened, most people settle down and carry on as if nothing has happened.
We won't actually know very much about the impacts of Brexit, good and bad, until at least a year or two after it has actually happened. Meanwhile all the comment about this or that indicator is just froth.
Well, yes. I think that's what a lot of people have been saying for a while, but some others wanted to take 2-3 weeks of sentiment based indicators as evidence for a recession, aided and abetted by the bitter remainers in the media.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
I've yet to talk to anyone who thinks the interest rate cut is a good idea. Consensus is that it is perfectly designed to hurt banks without helping anyone. Then again, i do hang out with a lot of bankers...
(View is thatCarney felt he needed to be seen to do something rather than actually having any worthwhile ideas)
Does anyone understand why rates got cut? The fall in the pound should be expected to bring some medium term inflation, so the theory says that the next movement would be up rather than down.
But hey, how much conventional economic theory has been thrown out of the window in the past 7 or 8 years? IMHO The rock bottom interest rates have really served their purpose now, they're screwing up savings and pensions, and exacerbating housing problems.
Take your choice: a) there was a political 'desire to do something', b) expectations of a cut had been stoked up, and it had already been deferred once, so not doing so would have been a shock at a time when surprises are unhelpful, and/or c) there was a genuine concern about rising panic and paralysis and the Bank's actions, by putting a few extra £ in a lot of borrowers' pockets, have settled everything down.
I tend to agree that the action was unnecessary - but as always it is difficult to judge without knowing what the alternative universe with the opposite decision looks like
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
Yes indeed. Fairly unsurprisingly, after an initial shock that created a week or so of paralysis, since nothing has actually happened, most people settle down and carry on as if nothing has happened.
We won't actually know very much about the impacts of Brexit, good and bad, until at least a year or two after it has actually happened. Meanwhile all the comment about this or that indicator is just froth.
Well, yes. I think that's what a lot of people have been saying for a while, but some others wanted to take 2-3 weeks of sentiment based indicators as evidence for a recession, aided and abetted by the bitter remainers in the media.
Sam Toombs in particular, seems desperate to talk down any piece of good economic news.
I see the professionally offended are expressing faux-outrage over Heather Wheeler's light-hearted comment on twitter that the British Empire finished first in the Olympics.
I missed the outrage from the same people about the EU - though some eurosceptics were upset on that. Some British people love the EU more than Britain. Luckilty they are a timy minority on the left.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
As an aside, a friend of mine who runs a jewellery business tells me that business is booming. He's usually quite a good early barometer for the economy, so take it as a (very small) piece of anecdata that backs up your view.
The big risk is construction spending, which is more of a Q1, Q2 next year story. The housing market in North London seems to have frozen up, with the median age of properties on Zoopla for Hampstead having increased 12 days in the last 15! Prices are off a little bit too.
May nee
We could, literally, see a Brexit boom.
We could.
On the other hand, I suspect there will be fewer expats on corporate rentals. And all the house rentals in Primrose Hill, Belsize Park, St John's Wood and Hampstead are corporate. That's going to really pressure rental yields.
And as long as the expectations for the currency remain negative (which they will, for the period leading up to actual exit, and possibly for some time afterwards) then investing here doesn't look such a good prospect from the outside
But remember there are almost no good places to put your money, at the moment. Interest rates are at an historic low, bonds give you minus 3% per annum or whatever, OK stocks are doing well but they are highly volatile. Gold and commodities are all over the shop.
London property is historically a fantastic bet, plus you get to have a house or flat in London. And prices have just dropped by 15%. For non-Brits.
The reason the bonds are still selling at minus whatever is precisely because a lot of investors would rather have the certainty of 99% return of capital, in the current climate.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
As an aside, a friend of mine who runs a jewellery business tells me that business is booming. He's usually quite a good early barometer for the economy, so take it as a (very small) piece of anecdata that backs up your view.
The big risk is construction spending, which is more of a Q1, Q2 next year story. The housing market in North London seems to have frozen up, with the median age of properties on Zoopla for Hampstead having increased 12 days in the last 15! Prices are off a little bit too.
May needs to order up some massive infrastructure pronto. Heathrow, Crossrail 2. Do it. Show we're about our business; the country that BEAT CHINA IN THE OLYMPICS.
Talking of China, London property has slowed, for sure - but I wonder how many foreign investors are looking at London property now, and thinking: Hmmm. For most foreigners, property prices in this ultra-attractive city (from an investment POV) have just dropped 10-15%. For Japanese and Swiss etc, they've dropped about 30% over the last two years.
At some point a new wave of foreign cash could sweep in, as nervous punters decide London isn't going anywhere, and they want some of the fun, as weak sterling makes everything so cheap.
We could, literally, see a Brexit boom.
A Brexit boom is more likely to be based on weak currency leading to an increase in exports without necessarily seeing the currency strengthen as it is being held down by other factors.
I wrote a bit about this before but there is a chance that the UK will enter a Goldilocks zone.
Weak currency, low taxes, low cost of doing business and competitive unit labour costs.
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
Yes indeed. Fairly unsurprisingly, after an initial shock that created a week or so of paralysis, since nothing has actually happened, most people settle down and carry on as if nothing has happened.
We won't actually know very much about the impacts of Brexit, good and bad, until at least a year or two after it has actually happened. Meanwhile all the comment about this or that indicator is just froth.
Well, yes. I think that's what a lot of people have been saying for a while, but some others wanted to take 2-3 weeks of sentiment based indicators as evidence for a recession, aided and abetted by the bitter remainers in the media.
Sam Toombs in particular, seems desperate to talk down any piece of good economic news.
The bitterest of bitter remainers. He'd give some of our bitter remainers a run for their money!
I see the professionally offended are expressing faux-outrage over Heather Wheeler's light-hearted comment on twitter that the British Empire finished first in the Olympics.
Do you have a link? I posted a similar comment just after the German eejit posted that the EU was top of the world!
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
As an aside, a friend of mine who runs a jewellery business tells me that business is booming. He's usually quite a good early barometer for the economy, so take it as a (very small) piece of anecdata that backs up your view.
The big risk is construction spending, which is more of a Q1, Q2 next year story. The housing market in North London seems to have frozen up, with the median age of properties on Zoopla for Hampstead having increased 12 days in the last 15! Prices are off a little bit too.
May nee
We could, literally, see a Brexit boom.
We could.
On the other hand, I suspect there will be fewer expats on corporate rentals. And all the house rentals in Primrose Hill, Belsize Park, St John's Wood and Hampstead are corporate. That's going to really pressure rental yields.
And as long as the expectations for the currency remain negative (which they will, for the period leading up to actual exit, and possibly for some time afterwards) then investing here doesn't look such a good prospect from the outside
But remember there are almost no good places to put your money, at the moment. Interest rates are at an historic low, bonds give you minus 3% per annum or whatever, OK stocks are doing well but they are highly volatile. Gold and commodities are all over the shop.
London property is historically a fantastic bet, plus you get to have a house or flat in London. And prices have just dropped by 15%. For non-Brits.
I'm about to take out a mortgage for a £500k+ house.
Scary until you think that interest rates are so low that most of the £1,500 I'll be paying each month will be equity.
So, in effect, my mortgage will be a compulsory savings scheme of c.£900-£1,000 a month.
Assuming property prices creep up, as long as they do so by 2-3% a year, that's a better saving scheme that anything else out there. And probably better than renting for my finances by a factor of three.
I see the professionally offended are expressing faux-outrage over Heather Wheeler's light-hearted comment on twitter that the British Empire finished first in the Olympics.
Do you have a link? I posted a similar comment just after the German eejit posted that the EU was top of the world!
I can't link right now, but it's on the BBC website.
I see the professionally offended are expressing faux-outrage over Heather Wheeler's light-hearted comment on twitter that the British Empire finished first in the Olympics.
Would you say that it's more than, less than or about the same as the amount of people who got a feather up their arse about the EU claim to have finished first in the Olympics?
I posted a few days ago that I thought that post-referendum fears over falling house prices might be overdone, and there's some evidence coming in to support that view, at least for the moment. Persimmon's figures today are really quite bullish, and support what other housebuilders have been saying.
I think the negativity after the vote has been massively overdone. Carney's rate cut feels like a huge overreaction now, I guess it was a case of being seen to be decisive. Hopefully they reverse it and rates start to rise.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
I've yet to talk to anyone who thinks the interest rate cut is a good idea. Consensus is that it is perfectly designed to hurt banks without helping anyone. Then again, i do hang out with a lot of bankers... (View is thatCarney felt he needed to be seen to do something rather than actually having any worthwhile ideas)
How long can Carney continue and why are the others on the BoE committee of a similar mindset? I am not a banker but the cut looked wrong in that it undermined banking profitability and undermined a weakened pound. It also injected more panic into a situation that needed stability. That said Philip Hammond does not come across as a Chancellor willing to tackle the establishment mindset that is in place.
"BRITONS are hoping the UK will suffer social and economic chaos if it supports their views on Brexit, they have revealed.
People on both sides of the debate would prefer there to be a crippling recession, riots in the streets and possibly civil war rather than lose a small amount of face.
Administrator Tom Logan said: “I predicted Brexit would cause a recession, so I’m hoping everyone will lose their jobs so I can be proved right to some pillocks on the internet.
“Ideally I’d like to see a 1930s-style depression but I’m not fussy. Even a few companies pulling out of the UK and devastating local communities would be a big ‘up yours’ to the smug Brexit gits.”
The Daily Mash is written by some middle class graduate journalists, who are on the mild (and often amusingly cynical) centre right. That would make them Remainers, of course.
It shows through in their humour.
I thought that was pretty funny.
Hit and miss.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
The gag - surely - is that there are a bunch of Remoaners who would rather people lost their jobs and be proved right.
What makes the Daily Mash so funny is how true so much of it rings. Just on here we have had a few Remaoners take a very similar line to that, revelling in any negative indicator and hiding any good news. Hoping for the economy to turn to shit so that there is a chance the vote can be reversed.
The racist leave jibe hurts because I campaigned with some people in the leave camp I would not normally associated with for that reason.
Quite. It burdens my conscience that I voted with Fox, Farage and the Daily Express. It makes me feel so dirty. But then I reflect that I could have voted with Geldof, Church and Thompson and I feel less shabby.
I don't mind Farage (that horrible poster aside). He is what he is. I do not believe he is racist. He can be very funny.
Fox gives me the creeps. Not sure why. He's not racist either, but.... something unsettling about him. And he's entirely unfunny.
Didn’t someone .... possibly Charles, but I mah be maligning him .... say he’s had dinner with Fox and was by no means the most pleasant experience of his life! Drinks with Borias, however (someone else’s report) were something else!
I see the professionally offended are expressing faux-outrage over Heather Wheeler's light-hearted comment on twitter that the British Empire finished first in the Olympics.
I'm not offended. But it does mark her out as a complete honking cretin who apparently hasn't noticed that the world has moved on since she was born. This woman is in Parliament. I suppose idiots need their fair share of representation there, same as everyone else.
I see the professionally offended are expressing faux-outrage over Heather Wheeler's light-hearted comment on twitter that the British Empire finished first in the Olympics.
I'm not offended. But it does mark her out as a complete honking cretin who apparently hasn't noticed that the world has moved on since she was born. This woman is in Parliament. I suppose idiots need their fair share of representation there, same as everyone else.
She's an A Lister, so only got in because she's a woman.
Comments
Facebook posts on things like HRA, junior doctors, TTIP, refugees and the EU are annoying but not necessarily indicative of a Corbynista.
They are indicative of sharing is caring.
I've read enough now to know that while the heads of agreement might (might!) come quite quickly, there are going to be huge chunks of boring detail (e.g. transitional EU27 access to UK fishing waters, legislative equivalency on product name misuse, rinse & repeat 10,000 times) that will bore the electorate to tears, and only matter to sectional interests.
I also suspect that when push comes to shove some, if not many, of those sectional interests will discover that, far from Brexit being advantageous to their particular interest, the opposite will apply.
I suspect that when all’s said and done we’ll end up worse off than we were before. It’ll be the opposite of marry in haste, repent at leisure.
Irish immigration was very high. That, Lancashire and North Welsh immigration mixing together is presumably where the bizarre, and borderline unintelligible, accent comes from.
It shows through in their humour.
Mr. Topping, financial stuff seems bloody opaque to me. Cunningly, I don't have enough money to worry about it
Hard to know what to make of all that, isn't it?
FWIW my commentary is here:
http://www.nickpalmer.org.uk/
That is where Country of Origin rules come in I believe.
OKC reply:
Agree. What little “inside” information I have and the very few straws that have blown past, plus of course experience of humanity, suggests winners, losers and no change.
Political problem of course is that, as you rightly said, it’s all going to take a long time.
Is there therefore a booming industry in reengineering widgets sufficiently to change country of origin? Is that possible? Is coffee grown in Africa but roasted in Germany African or German?
http://labourlist.org/2016/08/co-op-tells-rebel-mps-leave-us-out-of-your-plot/
Otherwise Iceland and Switzerland's free trade deals with China would have punched a hole in the CET. (Or, for that matter, the EFTA-Canada one.)
There are Rules of Origin provisions in trade agreements that prevent re-export.
The Brexiteers are stupid gag is one that's getting a little old.
Phew. Can't we just put you in charge of Brexit?
For projects we used to bid against an ITT or RFP. For longer term arrangements we negotiated framework agreements that satisfied all the necessary rules for local legislative and regulatory compliance, whatever they might be.
Edited for spelling
Until this lie dies, you will never beat him.
http://www.dw.com/en/germany-mulls-bringing-back-compulsory-military-service/a-19494191
http://www.dw.com/en/what-emergency-supplies-do-you-need/g-19493942
Just look at the state of Labour.
The racist leave jibe hurts because I campaigned with some people in the leave camp I would not normally associated with for that reason.
Yes, the Common Law is basically derived from the Ten Commandments - one may not kill, or steal, or chase another's wife etc - things that we should know without having Parliament pass a bill about it. IIRC the first time that Murder was mentioned in legislation was the Act abolishing the death penalty in the 1960s.
My expectations of 0.2-0.3% growth for Q3 may end up being an underestimate.
There are plenty of bad things about Brexit. Some of the effects are inadvertently benign - house price moderation and modest inflation being two of them.
Anyway guess that is what has sent my recently bought rbs punt a few % north.
Mr. M, you're right about the London prism.
Mr. T, don't think the Brussels machete attack was covered at all by the BBC news last night. Not even with a 'mentally ill loner called Dave' slant.
(View is thatCarney felt he needed to be seen to do something rather than actually having any worthwhile ideas)
Nowadays people read a badly summarised click-bait article on a site that aggregates news and considered themselves informed even though they only took in the headline and skimmed the rest. You only have to read the comments on a site to see that many people clearly don't read the articles they comment on.
We have a lot of information at out fingertips nowadays, but a hell of a lot of it, and particularly the popular content, is very poor quality.
Then on top of that there's the bias and filtering of social media which turns all sorts of complicated issues into a single bold lie, and the stupidest people tend to have the loudest voices. Anyone who knows something about a topic, and understands the complexities, gets drowned out by the perpetually outraged.
The big risk is construction spending, which is more of a Q1, Q2 next year story. The housing market in North London seems to have frozen up, with the median age of properties on Zoopla for Hampstead having increased 12 days in the last 15! Prices are off a little bit too.
0.6% growth after first revision
We won't actually know very much about the impacts of Brexit, good and bad, until at least a year or two after it has actually happened. Meanwhile all the comment about this or that indicator is just froth.
http://tinyurl.com/hl3qolr
On the other hand, I suspect there will be fewer expats on corporate rentals. And all the house rentals in Primrose Hill, Belsize Park, St John's Wood and Hampstead are corporate. That's going to really pressure rental yields.
That's because Mike asked for the Margin, not the vote share.
But hey, how much conventional economic theory has been thrown out of the window in the past 7 or 8 years? IMHO The rock bottom interest rates have really served their purpose now, they're screwing up savings and pensions, and exacerbating housing problems.
There are a few people in that unit who must have hated writing the note for the forecast upgrade, they are the worst kind of Remoaner described so well by the Daily Mash.
I tend to agree that the action was unnecessary - but as always it is difficult to judge without knowing what the alternative universe with the opposite decision looks like
Whens the report for cost of independence being commissioned?
I wrote a bit about this before but there is a chance that the UK will enter a Goldilocks zone.
Weak currency, low taxes, low cost of doing business and competitive unit labour costs.
Scary until you think that interest rates are so low that most of the £1,500 I'll be paying each month will be equity.
So, in effect, my mortgage will be a compulsory savings scheme of c.£900-£1,000 a month.
Assuming property prices creep up, as long as they do so by 2-3% a year, that's a better saving scheme that anything else out there. And probably better than renting for my finances by a factor of three.