politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Making sense of this week’s UK and US polling – the PB/Poll

Gordon's government net satisfaction best -17 apparently. I know governments are not generally popular in any way, but still, I still prefer him to Blair.

@DPJHodges: Jeremy Corbyn continuously refuses to say Britain would come to the aid of a NATO ally in the event of an attack from Russia.

Australia's Melissa Wu is particularly yummy.

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Jeremy Corbyn continuously refuses to say Britain would come to the aid of a NATO ally in the event of an attack from Russia.

Wonder if his criteria are the opposite to Trump? ie. we'll only help if you don't spend anything on defence...

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Jeremy Corbyn continuously refuses to say Britain would come to the aid of a NATO ally in the event of an attack from Russia.

Unfortunate, although in his defence I bet a lot of people say we should honour NATO commitments, and then would start to hesitate about committing forces to defend Estonia.

Correct.

Is it just me or has speculation about potential Labour splits died down in the past couple of weeks? A temporary lull, or have people come to believe those MPs are going nowhere no matter what?

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Jeremy Corbyn continuously refuses to say Britain would come to the aid of a NATO ally in the event of an attack from Russia.

Unfortunate, although in his defence I bet a lot of people say we should honour NATO commitments, and then would start to hesitate about committing forces to defend Estonia.

I'd be up for defending Estonia. At least they meet the 2% minimum spend. I wouldn't be up for defending the cheap arse Germans though.

Would you be up for defending 'staunch ally' Turkey?

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Jeremy Corbyn continuously refuses to say Britain would come to the aid of a NATO ally in the event of an attack from Russia.

Unfortunate, although in his defence I bet a lot of people say we should honour NATO commitments, and then would start to hesitate about committing forces to defend Estonia.

I'd be up for defending Estonia. At least they meet the 2% minimum spend. I wouldn't be up for defending the cheap arse Germans though.

Where else would we fight the Russkies if not in the Baltics? The UK would, naturally, honour its treaty obligations.

kle4 said:

Is it just me or has speculation about potential Labour splits died down in the past couple of weeks? A temporary lull, or have people come to believe those MPs are going nowhere no matter what?

Perhaps they think Smith has a chance so probably best to STFU until we know the outcome. If Corbyn wins, however, I think they'll go into meltdown. I don't know how it will play out but I don't think they'll try to get on with it as though the no confidence vote didn't happen.

I find it amazing how Corbyn is essentially going for leadership again of a parliamentary party he's lost the confidence of.

Smith and Corbyn as bad as each other. All well and good saying things like "end poverty" and "free education", which people will probably agree with, but where's the substance? Where's all the money coming from? Corbyn keeps saying it'll be from the 50p tax rate and clamping down on tax avoidance but there'll be nowhere near enough.

Then there's the 500 billion extra spending, privisation of railways, some sort of universal education service, unilateral nuclear disarmament, cutting tax relief for drug research...

Take this sort of stuff to the electorate and it'll be a bloodbath.

Corbyn's position on NATO is entirely consistent

He wants to turn the Labour Party into Stop the War

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

Is it just me or has speculation about potential Labour splits died down in the past couple of weeks? A temporary lull, or have people come to believe those MPs are going nowhere no matter what?

Perhaps they think Smith has a chance so probably best to STFU until we know the outcome. If Corbyn wins, however, I think they'll go into meltdown. I don't know how it will play out but I don't think they'll try to get on with it as though the no confidence vote didn't happen.

I think that's exactly what most will try to do. I think that would be laughable - his winning does not change they thought him incompetent at being leader - but how many will be willing to at least go quiet, how many will want to remain in open rebellion if he wins big once again? They think his leadership will hurt Labour, but if they think there's no way to remove him what's the point of still fighting? That would only hurt Labour more, and ain't more than a handful if that going indy, which would also hurt Labour.

Razedabode said:

I find it amazing how Corbyn is essentially going for leadership again of a parliamentary party he's lost the confidence of.

Smith and Corbyn as bad as each other. All well and good saying things like "end poverty" and "free education", which people will probably agree with, but where's the substance? Where's all the money coming from? Corbyn keeps saying it'll be from the 50p tax rate and clamping down on tax avoidance but there'll be nowhere near enough.

Then there's the 500 billion extra spending, privisation of railways, some sort of universal education service, unilateral nuclear disarmament, cutting tax relief for drug research...

Take this sort of stuff to the electorate and it'll be a bloodbath.

No-one's promised free owls yet, though, have they?

"Party for a United Thanet" standing tonight I see. I feel like they have limited ambition. Is united Thanet really that hard?

OldKingCole said:

Razedabode said:

I find it amazing how Corbyn is essentially going for leadership again of a parliamentary party he's lost the confidence of.

Smith and Corbyn as bad as each other. All well and good saying things like "end poverty" and "free education", which people will probably agree with, but where's the substance? Where's all the money coming from? Corbyn keeps saying it'll be from the 50p tax rate and clamping down on tax avoidance but there'll be nowhere near enough.

Then there's the 500 billion extra spending, privisation of railways, some sort of universal education service, unilateral nuclear disarmament, cutting tax relief for drug research...

Take this sort of stuff to the electorate and it'll be a bloodbath.

No-one's promised free owls yet, though, have they?

We're mightily close. I've only scratched the surface of some of the stupid things suggested.

Razedabode said:

OldKingCole said:

Razedabode said:

I find it amazing how Corbyn is essentially going for leadership again of a parliamentary party he's lost the confidence of.

Smith and Corbyn as bad as each other. All well and good saying things like "end poverty" and "free education", which people will probably agree with, but where's the substance? Where's all the money coming from? Corbyn keeps saying it'll be from the 50p tax rate and clamping down on tax avoidance but there'll be nowhere near enough.

Then there's the 500 billion extra spending, privisation of railways, some sort of universal education service, unilateral nuclear disarmament, cutting tax relief for drug research...

Take this sort of stuff to the electorate and it'll be a bloodbath.

No-one's promised free owls yet, though, have they?

We're mightily close. I've only scratched the surface of some of the stupid things suggested.

I assumed they were offering owls + a cash payment?

@insidethegames: BREAKING: #YelenaIsinbayeva elected as member of the International Olympic Committee https://t.co/aCs0zGt727 #Olympics #Rio2016 #Russia

kle4 said:

Keirin tempting fate suggesting the favourability rating toward the Tories underuts the Labour 'we're the good guys' narrative, as though the nasty party tag is fading.

For what it is worth they seem to generate more casual hate than other parties, although Labour get plenty among the politically inclined on the right.

Doubt the Tories have ever lost an election because they were seen as "nasty".

Scott_P said:

@insidethegames: BREAKING: #YelenaIsinbayeva elected as member of the International Olympic Committee https://t.co/aCs0zGt727 #Olympics #Rio2016 #Russia

Barmy. You would have thought banned competitors couldn't stand for these types of positions.

Scott_P said:

@insidethegames: BREAKING: #YelenaIsinbayeva elected as member of the International Olympic Committee https://t.co/aCs0zGt727 #Olympics #Rio2016 #Russia

Whatever next, Sepp Blatter gets a seat?

SimonStClare said:

Scott_P said:

@insidethegames: BREAKING: #YelenaIsinbayeva elected as member of the International Olympic Committee https://t.co/aCs0zGt727 #Olympics #Rio2016 #Russia

Isn’t she banned from participating in Rio – they must be crackers.

And she missed the nomination deadline by a month but Russian money the IOC decided that was ok.

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

Keirin tempting fate suggesting the favourability rating toward the Tories underuts the Labour 'we're the good guys' narrative, as though the nasty party tag is fading.

For what it is worth they seem to generate more casual hate than other parties, although Labour get plenty among the politically inclined on the right.

i think Labour are now, if not hated, then definitely held in violent contempt by large swathes of the population, from Scots to northern WWClasses, to, in particular, the lower middle classes and middle classes of southern England - hence their dire election results and terribling polling in southern England

This isn't just a pendulum swing, this is millions of people deciding they will NEVER vote for the Labour Party again, unless they see radical change (like a Tony Blair figure in charge, once again, and what are the chances of that?)

Desperate stuff for Labour.

I have my doubts, personally, although its all based on anecdotal stuff. We've seen there has been a seeming sea change in Scotland from former Labour voters, so it could happen elsewhere, but then I come across people like a relative of mine - 60 yrs old WWC, never voted until the Brexit vote, holds all politicians in contempt, and usually seems opposed to Labour policies more than Tory ones...but still says if they had to vote, they'd vote Labour.

Now, they are intending to return to being a non-voter, but if such a person would, if pressed, go for Labour even though I cannot see what about it appeals to them (definitely no Corbynista), or at least repels them the least, then will enough hold on for Labour to prevent disaster at the least, and spring surprises at best?

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

@insidethegames: BREAKING: #YelenaIsinbayeva elected as member of the International Olympic Committee https://t.co/aCs0zGt727 #Olympics #Rio2016 #Russia

Ha ha. The clean Russian athletes should be back in the competition shortly.

It was the IAAF that banned the Russians, not the IOC.

SimonStClare said:

Scott_P said:

@insidethegames: BREAKING: #YelenaIsinbayeva elected as member of the International Olympic Committee https://t.co/aCs0zGt727 #Olympics #Rio2016 #Russia

Isn’t she banned from participating in Rio – they must be crackers.

She's meant to be one of the clean ones, but caught up in the general Athletics ban on Russia I think. Sucks for her, although I have little sympathy - it was state sponsored doping, how do you punish that other than banning that nation's entire complement, so they have a real interest in ensuring that culture does not return?

Labour much harder on their former PMs than Tories (in favourability ratings) is an interesting one - Keirin offhandly wondering if it is a part of seeing governing as a betrayal.

Watching the Olympic Taekwondo. Exactly what are they trying to do?

Tim_B said:

Speaking of Olympics, do we believe Ryan Lochte? Looks like America doesn't.

Brazilian released more CCTV now. Doesn't look good for him.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Charles said:

SimonStClare said:

Scott_P said:

@insidethegames: BREAKING: #YelenaIsinbayeva elected as member of the International Olympic Committee https://t.co/aCs0zGt727 #Olympics #Rio2016 #Russia

Isn’t she banned from participating in Rio – they must be crackers.

And she missed the nomination deadline by a month but Russian money the IOC decided that was ok.

As bent clean as the Olympic boxing judges.

Woolfe must be envious.

kle4 said:

Labour much harder on their former PMs than Tories (in favourability ratings) is an interesting one - Keirin offhandly wondering if it is a part of seeing governing as a betrayal.

I don't think it's seeing governing as a betrayal, so much as a fundamental failure to understand the reality of government.

alex. said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

@insidethegames: BREAKING: #YelenaIsinbayeva elected as member of the International Olympic Committee https://t.co/aCs0zGt727 #Olympics #Rio2016 #Russia

Ha ha. The clean Russian athletes should be back in the competition shortly.

It was the IAAF that banned the Russians, not the IOC.

Damn, you're right.

Maybe someone like Isinbayeva, having just missed a great chance at a gold medal through no fault of her own, is the sort of person the IOC needs to come down hard on the drugs issue. As in lifetime bans from the Olympics for anyone caught using drugs.

And the hits just keep on coming...

@joerichlaw: Labour facing cancellation of next month's crucial Party Conference as officials fail to arrange security contract https://t.co/DEK9z9mLjd

Thrak said:

OldKingCole said:

Watching the Olympic Taekwondo. Exactly what are they trying to do?

Kick each other in the head or stomach, the perfect sport for a Saturday night in a pub car park.

As the crowd cheer on "Leave it, Jade, she's not worf it..."

Scott_P said:

And the hits just keep on coming...

@joerichlaw: Labour facing cancellation of next month's crucial Party Conference as officials fail to arrange security contract https://t.co/DEK9z9mLjd

Guess how long it will take them to drop their ideological hatred of G4S, in the face of having their conference cancelled 'cos no-one else wants to work with them either?

China pull back a gold and silver in the little girls diving off the top board.

It's only their domination of wiff-waff giving them a chance of overhauling us.

John_M said:

htps://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/766367775501746176

May doesn't want to open a can of worms by even trying for that, I imagine.

Scott_P said:

And the hits just keep on coming...

@joerichlaw: Labour facing cancellation of next month's crucial Party Conference as officials fail to arrange security contract https://t.co/DEK9z9mLjd

Hard to imagine a better way to signal to the voters that you have given up as a serious mainstream party.....

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

And the hits just keep on coming...

@joerichlaw: Labour facing cancellation of next month's crucial Party Conference as officials fail to arrange security contract https://t.co/DEK9z9mLjd

Hard to imagine a better way to signal to the voters that you have given up as a serious mainstream party.....

Electing Jeremy Corbyn?

SeanT said:

kle4 said:

Keirin tempting fate suggesting the favourability rating toward the Tories underuts the Labour 'we're the good guys' narrative, as though the nasty party tag is fading.

For what it is worth they seem to generate more casual hate than other parties, although Labour get plenty among the politically inclined on the right.

i think Labour are now, if not hated, then definitely held in violent contempt by large swathes of the population, from Scots to northern WWClass, to, in particular, the lower middle class and middle class of southern England outside London - hence their dire election results and terrible polling south of the line from Wash to Bristol.

This isn't just a pendulum swing, this is millions of people deciding they will NEVER vote for the Labour Party again, unless they see radical change (like a Tony Blair figure in charge, once more, and what are the chances of that?)

Desperate times for Labour: the reviled Party.

Labour's position is - by any measure - dire. You've got a whole swathe of traditionally marginal seats, like Dartford, Gravesham, Nuneaton, Stevenage, Tamworth, Hemel Hempstead, Medway, where they're no longer a contender, and they don't seem to care.

MarqueeMark said:

China pull back a gold and silver in the little girls diving off the top board.

It's only their domination of wiff-waff giving them a chance of overhauling us.

For all the talk about us being dominant in a few events, it's worth remembering that for China 15 of their 20 golds come from only 3 events - Diving, Weightlifting and Table Tennis.

Team GB has 3 or more Golds in only two events, Cycling and Rowing, and our top three (including sailing) comes to 11 out of our 21.

The USA is absurdly dominant in swimming, with 16 golds alone, and if you include their top 3 events (a little unfair as it includes athletics, which covers a much wider area than others) then 26 of their 31 has come from 3 sports areas.

So we have a decent spread of Golds to be honest.

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_P said:

And the hits just keep on coming...

@joerichlaw: Labour facing cancellation of next month's crucial Party Conference as officials fail to arrange security contract https://t.co/DEK9z9mLjd

Hard to imagine a better way to signal to the voters that you have given up as a serious mainstream party.....

Ways you could do this include:

1) elect an elderly nutcase with no intelligence or experience as leader on the basis he utters the right cliches;

2) Have the leader repeatedly vote against his own party's defence policy;

3) Have almost the entire Shadow Cabinet resign in protest at his laziness, discourtesy and incompetence;

4) Have said members of the shadow cabinet verbally and physically assaulted, while the said leader does nothing despite urging a 'kinder, gentler politics,;

5) Have 80% of MPs vote against the leader in a confidence motion which he ignores;

6) Have a leadership election which is subject to two separate legal challenges, one of which is overturned on appeal;

7) Have a leadership contest that focuses exclusively on foreign policy which it turns out neither candidate has the least understanding of;

8) Cancel the conference because you can't work with any of the security firms that could keep people safe.

Labour have done their recent bout of self-destruction with style and panache. Any one would be sufficient, but they decided to do them all. Maybe their solution to the problem of security is to have so few MPs that they can hold future meetings in a taxi (a Reliant Robin, maybe)?

If only it was an Olympic sport so we could get another gold out of it.

OldKingCole said:

Watching the Olympic Taekwondo. Exactly what are they trying to do?

Head kick contact wins prizes .....

Another typical day at the Omnishambles Games..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3734704/The-boy-gun-head-demanded-cash-Rio-crimewave-leaves-tourists-terrified-15-year-old-thieves-target-Games.html

OldKingCole said:

The commentary on the next kicky fight is beyond bizarre. Talking about pocket-picking.

Hard to commentate on Nothing Happening. No points scored after two rounds. Just lots of squealing....

SeanT said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

BBCNews 9m9 minutes ago
Friday's FT BREXIT EXCLUSIVE: "City abandons hope of full access to EU single market" #tomorrowspaperstoday

tbh, I'm surprised the FT didn't run with black edging.

Anyway, if it's true and that is the City's representative view, May will be able to wipe the sweat from her brow.

So we're going for Switzerland PLUS - i.e. plus extra access for Financial Services?

It's risky, very risky, but if we pull it off it could be the best possible result.

Switzerland is an enviable nation. I'd be totally happy if the UK could be an oversized Switzerland, with more soft power.

Yes, but we won't call it Swiss+ 'cos the Swiss-EU relationship is, in diplo speak, in the shitter.

What happens in the kicky fight in Jim jams if they are equal at the end. Is it a sudden death kick off?

Moses_ said:

What happens in the kicky fight in Jim jams if they are equal at the end. Is it a sudden death kick off?

Yes. Could last hours on this form.....

Sean_F said:

There's a lot of ruin in a big political party. But, a big party can be ruined, as the Liberals demonstrated. Lloyd George, Asquith, Samuel, Simon, and their followers left no stone unturned, in their determination to destroy their party.

A lot of that was about the big egos of the men concerned. Indeed, Lloyd George and Asquith later reconciled (officially) while a follower of Simon became leader of the Samuelites from 1945-55.

This is a fundamental clash with no obvious solution that could easily end with the total destruction of the Labour movement. About the only avoidable mistake they haven't made is attempting assassinations of each other.

Watching the Olympics now is a bit like the end of the NH season. We've had the excitement culminating in the Gold Cup (100m) and are now waiting for the Whitbread (200m).

The rest is meh.

OldKingCole said:

Kicky Final at 2am. Someone tell me what happens!

It's like a semi-violent Riverdance.

SeanT said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

BBCNews 9m9 minutes ago
Friday's FT BREXIT EXCLUSIVE: "City abandons hope of full access to EU single market" #tomorrowspaperstoday

tbh, I'm surprised the FT didn't run with black edging.

Anyway, if it's true and that is the City's representative view, May will be able to wipe the sweat from her brow.

So we're going for Switzerland PLUS - i.e. plus extra access for Financial Services?

It's risky, very risky, but if we pull it off it could be the best possible result.

Switzerland is an enviable nation. I'd be totally happy if the UK could be an oversized Switzerland, with more soft power.

Yes, but we won't call it Swiss+ 'cos the Swiss-EU relationship is, in diplo speak, in the shitter.

My recent visit to Ticino - the Italian-speaking corner of Switzerland - spoke eloquently of an extroardinarily lucky country - beautiful, peaceful, friendly, happy. Nice wines. Good food. Splendid railways. Sexy girls and a rock hard currency.

The only problem was the traffic through the (incredibly impressive) road tunnels.

Let us be a bigger Switzerland, Lord. For this we pray.

We will be fine whatever happens. That's assuming you're not in certain financial services in the City, a large agri-business or a Sunderland/Castle Bromwich car worker, and so on.