politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » According to the betting markets, at least, Article 50 is
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The Vienna campaign was in part driven by the desire to reassert control over central European trade routes. It's common for rulers to see adventurism as a solution to domestic issues c.f. Galtieri, Kirchner and Putin.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, ah, right.
Mind you, the Ottomans did get to the gates of Vienna a couple of centuries later.0 -
I remember Mark Taylor choosing to bat on a damp pitch at Old Trafford in 1997. They got a bit lucky because Steve Waugh got away with a very good LBW shout. But the difference back then was that the pitch was genuinely damp and Taylor knew that the quicks would churn it up and he had Warne waiting to do the damage. This time, Cook gave up the opportunity to use an under-prepared pitch.kle4 said:
Not really. It is clearly a fine pitch for batting as the Pakistani's have proven, so deciding to bat on it made sense. We just haven't batted well on it.tlg86 said:Well this is going well at the Oval. Cook's decision to bat is looking about as bad as Nasser's decision to bowl at the Gabba in 2002.
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GOP strategists dumbfounded as Trump campaigns in bluest Connecticut whilst red states turn purple :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-connecticut-why-is-he-campaigning-there-2269590 -
History is just lots of individual days strung together.Recidivist said:
I think history is basically gossip with a bigger vocabulary anyway.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, can't argue against the idea that revisionists trying to impose contemporary perspectives on history are daft.
Just like climate is just lots of bits of weather in a row.0 -
Surely genuine refugees should "sing for their supper". It's not like they'll be displacing German workers given that unemployment in Germany is at 25 year low.David_Evershed said:
Economic migrants should return home.John_M said:
Bit harsh. Can't have them languishing about doing nothing.nunu said:
So they are economic migrants.FrancisUrquhart said:Angela Merkel to 'urge chiefs of big companies to hire refugees'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/angela-merkel-to-urge-chiefs-of-big-companies-to-hire-refugees/0 -
Which also means we are almost all royalty.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.0 -
It is difficult to understand what he is playing at.JackW said:GOP strategists dumbfounded as Trump campaigns in bluest Connecticut whilst red states turn purple :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-connecticut-why-is-he-campaigning-there-2269590 -
Lots of Visigothic nobles turned Muslim, after 711, and then their descendants turned Christian, during the Reconquista.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.0 -
JohnO's claim to a Royal Dukedom has been strengthened somewhat.frpenkridge said:
Which also means we are almost all royalty.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.0 -
The CDU/CSU is still 15 points clear of the SPD in Germany, and 20-25 points clear of the AfD and the Greens. The most likely outcome - given that the German economic is still doing pretty well by World standards - is something like this:chestnut said:
The electoral issue is a strange one. There will be some pressure to be tough, but there will also be pressure to be pragmatic and protect national economies and jobs.Philip_Thompson said:
Not remotely. It is quite logical to invoke Article 50 in about November 2017 to January 2018. This window is perfect as it gets out of the way the French and German elections (as well as a few other big ones) ensuring "being tough on the English" doesn't become a campaign issue for them during our window. Secondly it ensures our two year window ends in plenty of time for a 2020 General Election.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.
Let's say the negotiations see us leaving on New Years Day 2020. We will be out. The fact that it took a few years will be a moot point, getting a good deal is what matters.
It's pointless serving A50 in advance of the French election because Hollande is a dead man walking. Merkel however......CDU/CSU 35%
Under those circumstances, I'd expect a CDU/Green/FDP coalition rather than a Grand One. The SPD is desperate, I think, to return to opposition.
SPD 18%
AfD 14%
Greens 12%
Die Linke 9%
FDP 7%0 -
Nate Silver's latest forecasts :
Clinton 87.8 .. Trump 12.2 - Polls Only
Clinton 77.6 .. Trump 22.4 - Polls Plus
Clinton 90.8 .. Trump 9.2 - Nowcast
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now0 -
But so has ours, by the same token!RobD said:
JohnO's claim to a Royal Dukedom has been strengthened somewhat.frpenkridge said:
Which also means we are almost all royalty.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.0 -
I believe we are all descended from Charlemagne. I can probably dig up the evidence for that assertion if you're not willing to simply luxuriate in reflected glory. One of Dawkins tomes (before he simply became a dreary, shrill anti-Deist iirc).Sean_F said:
Lots of Visigothic nobles turned Muslim, after 711, and then their descendants turned Christian, during the Reconquista.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.
@rcs1000 Don't think Merkel's even announced she's running yet, has she?0 -
I remember a few years ago SeanT saying that Elizabeth was a direct descendant of Thor, via (I htink) Scandinavian royalty.John_M said:
I believe we are all descended from Charlemagne. I can probably dig up the evidence for that assertion if you're not willing to simply luxuriate in reflected glory. One of Dawkins tomes (before he simply became a dreary, shrill anti-Deist iirc).Sean_F said:
Lots of Visigothic nobles turned Muslim, after 711, and then their descendants turned Christian, during the Reconquista.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.
@rcs1000 Don't think Merkel's even announced she's running yet, has she?
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What was a masterful strategy by Trump for the GOP primaries is a now a masterful strategy for the general election for Clinton.rottenborough said:
It is difficult to understand what he is playing at.JackW said:GOP strategists dumbfounded as Trump campaigns in bluest Connecticut whilst red states turn purple :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-connecticut-why-is-he-campaigning-there-226959
Simply put, Donald is Donald and there's no changing him, his strategy or his demise.0 -
Indeed! Minor Googling gives us this sort of Charlemagne stuff:John_M said:
I believe we are all descended from Charlemagne. I can probably dig up the evidence for that assertion if you're not willing to simply luxuriate in reflected glory. One of Dawkins tomes (before he simply became a dreary, shrill anti-Deist iirc).Sean_F said:
Lots of Visigothic nobles turned Muslim, after 711, and then their descendants turned Christian, during the Reconquista.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.
@rcs1000 Don't think Merkel's even announced she's running yet, has she?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/commentisfree/2015/may/24/business-genetic-ancestry-charlemagne-adam-rutherford0 -
Let's hope so. I have a nuclear shelter for the garden to build this Fall otherwise.JackW said:
What was a masterful strategy by Trump for the GOP primaries is a now a masterful strategy for the general election for Clinton.rottenborough said:
It is difficult to understand what he is playing at.JackW said:GOP strategists dumbfounded as Trump campaigns in bluest Connecticut whilst red states turn purple :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-connecticut-why-is-he-campaigning-there-226959
Simply put, Donald is Donald and there's no changing him, his strategy or his demise.0 -
I'd put the SPD higher and AfD lower but otherwise I think about right, and agree with your conclusions. The absence of a coherent alternative leaves Merkel in good shape.rcs1000 said:
The CDU/CSU is still 15 points clear of the SPD in Germany, and 20-25 points clear of the AfD and the Greens. The most likely outcome - given that the German economic is still doing pretty well by World standards - is something like this:CDU/CSU 35%
Under those circumstances, I'd expect a CDU/Green/FDP coalition rather than a Grand One. The SPD is desperate, I think, to return to opposition.
SPD 18%
AfD 14%
Greens 12%
Die Linke 9%
FDP 7%
As for internal UK ructions, I dunno. It's all gone very quiet. Admittedly it's August, but with the co-option of the main Tory leavers into the Government, the apparent retirement of Farage and the self-preoccupation of Labour, there is nobody prominent in the UK saying "oh, get on with it". The general public? Maybe. I get the impression that having cocked a snook at the Establishment, they aren't especially in a hurry to get all the details nailed down.
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Thanks Geoff, much appreciated.GeoffM said:
Indeed! Minor Googling gives us this sort of Charlemagne stuff:John_M said:
I believe we are all descended from Charlemagne. I can probably dig up the evidence for that assertion if you're not willing to simply luxuriate in reflected glory. One of Dawkins tomes (before he simply became a dreary, shrill anti-Deist iirc).Sean_F said:
Lots of Visigothic nobles turned Muslim, after 711, and then their descendants turned Christian, during the Reconquista.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.
@rcs1000 Don't think Merkel's even announced she's running yet, has she?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/commentisfree/2015/may/24/business-genetic-ancestry-charlemagne-adam-rutherford0 -
A knifeman has set fire to a train in north-eastern Switzerland, leaving six people in hospital with stab wounds and burns, police say.
The suspect, described as a Swiss man aged 27, was also taken to hospital after the incident near Salez in St Gallen Canton, close to Liechtenstein.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37072847
I think given the currently climate it would be more helpful if the authorities were clearer about the individual.
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Trump has just 3 weeks to turn it around, or GOP will cut him loose:JackW said:
What was a masterful strategy by Trump for the GOP primaries is a now a masterful strategy for the general election for Clinton.rottenborough said:
It is difficult to understand what he is playing at.JackW said:GOP strategists dumbfounded as Trump campaigns in bluest Connecticut whilst red states turn purple :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-connecticut-why-is-he-campaigning-there-226959
Simply put, Donald is Donald and there's no changing him, his strategy or his demise.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/291310-is-trump-in-danger-of-losing-gop0 -
Merkel should survive with a new Grand Coalition looking likely. However once you've waited for the French elections to pass you are facing the summer recess and the German election campaign so why not wait a few more months?chestnut said:
The electoral issue is a strange one. There will be some pressure to be tough, but there will also be pressure to be pragmatic and protect national economies and jobs.Philip_Thompson said:
Not remotely. It is quite logical to invoke Article 50 in about November 2017 to January 2018. This window is perfect as it gets out of the way the French and German elections (as well as a few other big ones) ensuring "being tough on the English" doesn't become a campaign issue for them during our window. Secondly it ensures our two year window ends in plenty of time for a 2020 General Election.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.
Let's say the negotiations see us leaving on New Years Day 2020. We will be out. The fact that it took a few years will be a moot point, getting a good deal is what matters.
It's pointless serving A50 in advance of the French election because Hollande is a dead man walking. Merkel however......0 -
There is quite clearly a large chunk of people unwilling to consider the possibility that the dynamics of the Republican primary are different from the general election.JackW said:Mike Littwin of the "Colorado Independent" via RCP assesses whether Trump deniers who called the primaries wrong are wary of calling the POTUS race over as the Donald limps from one horror story to another :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/08/13/trump_is_ready_to_face_the_prospect_that_he_might_lose_131500.html0 -
Jazz Carling looks OK.0
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Swiss man named Dave, of course.FrancisUrquhart said:A knifeman has set fire to a train in north-eastern Switzerland, leaving six people in hospital with stab wounds and burns, police say.
The suspect, described as a Swiss man aged 27, was also taken to hospital after the incident near Salez in St Gallen Canton, close to Liechtenstein.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37072847
I think given the currently climate it would be more helpful if the authorities were clearer about the individual.0 -
"Labour leadership election" fits perfectly as a substitute for "Republican primary"Alistair said:
There is quite clearly a large chunk of people unwilling to consider the possibility that the dynamics of the Republican primary are different from the general election.JackW said:Mike Littwin of the "Colorado Independent" via RCP assesses whether Trump deniers who called the primaries wrong are wary of calling the POTUS race over as the Donald limps from one horror story to another :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/08/13/trump_is_ready_to_face_the_prospect_that_he_might_lose_131500.html0 -
Wealthy Europhile Lawyers like Messrs. TSE and Meeks should personally foot the bill for any continued EUTheScreamingEagles said:We're never leaving if this the brilliance of those in charge of making Brexit happen.
EU GAFFERS Liam Fox in Brexit howler as his team admits Brit businesses could be left facing crippling tariffs on EU deals
Officials insist the announcement had been a blunder, dubbing it 'a draft which was published in error'
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1601868/liam-foxs-department-redraws-announcement-that-britain-might-leave-the-eu-without-having-done-a-new-trade-deal/
I've always been of the view that Liam Fox couldn't find a cup of water even if you dropped him into the Atlantic Ocean, so far nothing is make me change my mind.
When even The Sun are criticising Leavers...protection moneycontributions IF we don't end up leaving.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/olympics/2016/08/11/how-does-team-gbs-rio-2016-medal-tally-compare-with-london-2012/
Handy guide to compare our haul with 2012.0 -
Any relation of Oliver Littwin?JackW said:Mike Littwin of the "Colorado Independent" via RCP assesses whether Trump deniers who called the primaries wrong are wary of calling the POTUS race over as the Donald limps from one horror story to another :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/08/13/trump_is_ready_to_face_the_prospect_that_he_might_lose_131500.html 0 -
This was the case in 08 and 12. McCain and Romney were compromised by the primaries multiplied now significantly by the Donald.Alistair said:
There is quite clearly a large chunk of people unwilling to consider the possibility that the dynamics of the Republican primary are different from the general election.JackW said:Mike Littwin of the "Colorado Independent" via RCP assesses whether Trump deniers who called the primaries wrong are wary of calling the POTUS race over as the Donald limps from one horror story to another :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/08/13/trump_is_ready_to_face_the_prospect_that_he_might_lose_131500.html
Additionally the demographic time bomb will keep exploding every four years with greater power each time.0 -
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
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It's correct - his wife was Constance of Castile, who was a descendant of the Amir of Seville al-Andalus and hence his children descend from Fatima, daughter of Mohammed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.
I'd be slightly surprised if 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are descended from Mohammed, though, as John of Gaunt had 3 wives and many more temporary arrangements - of his entire litter, Constance had only one child - Catherine of Castile - who survived infancy
edit: you may be muddling it up with the statistic that something like 70% (?) of the current British population are descended from Edward III?0 -
Hillary campaigned in Michigan this week.JackW said:GOP strategists dumbfounded as Trump campaigns in bluest Connecticut whilst red states turn purple :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/trump-connecticut-why-is-he-campaigning-there-226959
So I'm equally dumbfounded.
Their internal polls must be really scrambled, or simply the crazy state pattern of Florida being tied and Pennsylvania going left of New York exists in other areas too.0 -
If we don't trigger Article 50 by May 2017, then the UK may still be a member by May 2019, which means there will still be slots for UK MEPs in the May 2019 European Parliament election.Philip_Thompson said:
Not remotely. It is quite logical to invoke Article 50 in about November 2017 to January 2018. This window is perfect as it gets out of the way the French and German elections (as well as a few other big ones) ensuring "being tough on the English" doesn't become a campaign issue for them during our window. Secondly it ensures our two year window ends in plenty of time for a 2020 General Election.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.
Let's say the negotiations see us leaving on New Years Day 2020. We will be out. The fact that it took a few years will be a moot point, getting a good deal is what matters.0 -
There is no current German poll with AfD at 14 and SPD at 18 .rcs1000 said:
The CDU/CSU is still 15 points clear of the SPD in Germany, and 20-25 points clear of the AfD and the Greens. The most likely outcome - given that the German economic is still doing pretty well by World standards - is something like this:chestnut said:
The electoral issue is a strange one. There will be some pressure to be tough, but there will also be pressure to be pragmatic and protect national economies and jobs.Philip_Thompson said:
Not remotely. It is quite logical to invoke Article 50 in about November 2017 to January 2018. This window is perfect as it gets out of the way the French and German elections (as well as a few other big ones) ensuring "being tough on the English" doesn't become a campaign issue for them during our window. Secondly it ensures our two year window ends in plenty of time for a 2020 General Election.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.
Let's say the negotiations see us leaving on New Years Day 2020. We will be out. The fact that it took a few years will be a moot point, getting a good deal is what matters.
It's pointless serving A50 in advance of the French election because Hollande is a dead man walking. Merkel however......CDU/CSU 35%
Under those circumstances, I'd expect a CDU/Green/FDP coalition rather than a Grand One. The SPD is desperate, I think, to return to opposition.
SPD 18%
AfD 14%
Greens 12%
Die Linke 9%
FDP 7%
Highest AfD is 13 average 11
Lowest SPD is 21 average 220 -
The point is not that it *could* be self-sufficient in food.Paul_Bedfordshire said:FPT
UK is 242,000 sq km and has 64 million population.viewcode said:
I did not know that: one learns something new every day. But even having said that, 76% is still far short of 100%. The remaining 24% comes to ~16million people: does RoI produce enough food to feed that 16million as well as her own 5million?John_M said:
76% in home-grown foods according DEFRA in March 2016.viewcode said:
Fact check: is this even slightly true? I know that the UK is nowhere near food sufficiency and hasn't been for decades (centuries?). It never occurred to me to add RoI to things, simply because it's a different country. But even given that, I doubt this. Ireland hasn't got the climate to grow large quantities of wheat or corn, and as for fruit production (grape, bananas, oranges, peaches. etc) it's pretty much a non-starter in terms of bulk production. I'm willing to believe it produces beef, lamb, anything that can be produced by herding grazing animals that don't mind rain. But again, I can't see it producing nearly enough to feed the ~65million population of the UK as well as itself.Paul_Bedfordshire said:The British Isles are self sufficient in food
(PS Paul_Bedfordshire, I need to point out that I'm not picking on you with this post: it's just that the claim is so contra-intuitive it triggered my factcheck gene)
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515048/food-farming-stats-release-07apr16.pdf
RoI is 70,000 sq km.
Doing crude maths 242,000 sq km is enough to feed 48.6 million people.
Combined size of UK and RoI is 312,000 sq km.
That is enough land to feed 62 million.
Total pop of RoI + UK is 69 million so near as dammit there and wouldn't need much additional land put into production to be fully there.
In a war situation as robert alludes to the problem would be oil to run tractors etc. and getting shipping across Irish sea etc.
Ireland has a very very low population for its size and fertility of land. Prior to the potato famine in 19th century its population was 8.2 million in 1841 million at a time when the GB population was 18.5 million. Now the whole of Ireland is approx 6.5 million and GB 62.5 million.
The point is that it *isn't* self-sufficient in food.0
