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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » According to the betting markets, at least, Article 50 is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » According to the betting markets, at least, Article 50 is going to be invoked later rather than earlier
One of the betting markets I got into in the week after the referendum was when would Article 50 be invoked. My view was and remains is that this is going to take longer than many anticipated. I got 5/2 that it would be after the end of 2017 and I’ve got a bit on Betfair which has a cut off date for its final time segment of June 30th 2017.
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I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
The idea that the courts could overthrow the Lisbon Treaty in order to prevent the PM from invoking article 50 is a fantasy from the worst elements in society.
We'd look ridiculous.
RoI is 70,000 sq km.
Doing crude maths 242,000 sq km is enough to feed 48.6 million people.
Combined size of UK and RoI is 312,000 sq km.
That is enough land to feed 62 million.
Total pop of RoI + UK is 69 million so near as dammit there and wouldn't need much additional land put into production to be fully there.
In a war situation as robert alludes to the problem would be oil to run tractors etc. and getting shipping across Irish sea etc.
Ireland has a very very low population for its size and fertility of land. Prior to the potato famine in 19th century its population was 8.2 million in 1841 million at a time when the GB population was 18.5 million. Now the whole of Ireland is approx 6.5 million and GB 62.5 million.
Practically by the end of 2017, so that it does not become an election issue for 2020 even if negotiations take the full 2 year period.
If it does drag on beyond December 31st 2017, a big spat between the Tories and UKIP is to be expected on the 2020 GE.
You lost. Go away.
Get on with it Theresa.
EU GAFFERS Liam Fox in Brexit howler as his team admits Brit businesses could be left facing crippling tariffs on EU deals
Officials insist the announcement had been a blunder, dubbing it 'a draft which was published in error'
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1601868/liam-foxs-department-redraws-announcement-that-britain-might-leave-the-eu-without-having-done-a-new-trade-deal/
I've always been of the view that Liam Fox couldn't find a cup of water even if you dropped him into the Atlantic Ocean, so far nothing is make me change my mind.
When even The Sun are criticising Leavers...
If not, it becomes an election issue and the danger for the Tory civil war, that was plainly seen during the referendum, to be repeated in a GE.
His history as Defence Secretary was the reason why, and it's clear that he is the weakest link.
He has already been tested once in high office, only to resign in scandal.
I'm not so worried about timing. Of course it let's the negotiators off because any sane person will have lost interest and there will in any case be little scrutiny but that's the nature of the beast.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/angela-merkel-to-urge-chiefs-of-big-companies-to-hire-refugees/
I guess that a Brexit Investment and Development Strategy will form a very significant part of the autumn statement and 2017 budget. Flesh on the bones.
It ain't gonna be so easy.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/cecilia-malmstrom-eu-trade-commissioner-brexit-uk-wto
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.
As you're on - I genuinely LOLed when someone made the pizza/Topping joke the other day!
Or am I being very, very, very, harsh on him?
It's YOU when it suits Alistair and WE when it suits him. Alastair needs to decide if he's inside or outside the tent.
Edited extra bit: Maldonado-Badoer, even.
Ironic that the basis of this legal action is an EU directive!
At the moment we have all the uncertainty of Brexit combined with all the financial and social costs of being in. The worst of both worlds.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37072847
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37072847
Police have not revealed Dave’s name yet…
We asked people to choose which of the following pairs of statements comes closer to their view:
• Jeremy Corbyn would make a better leader of the Labour Party – Owen Smith would make a better leader of the Labour Party
• Grammar schools are good for social mobility, giving the less privileged a chance to succeed – Grammar schools are bad for social mobility, they mainly help those who are privileged already
• The Government should allow new grammar schools that select pupils through the 11-plus exam – The Government should keep the ban on new grammar schools that select pupils through the 11-plus
• I would prefer Donald Trump to be the next President of the USA – I would prefer Hillary Clinton to be the next President of the USA
• I believe MI5 is behind some online criticism of Jeremy Corbyn – I do not believe MI5 is behind some online criticism of Jeremy Corbyn
• The House of Lords should be abolished – The House of Lords plays a useful role scrutinising laws passed by government
• There are real similarities between Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher – Theresa May cannot be compared to Margaret Thatcher
• It is the job of politicians to make decisions about the future of the country – The public should be asked in referendums to decide on major decisions about Britain’s future
The May-Thatcher statement is also a bit iffy, as some things might be compared (female leaders) and others can't (very different times).
That said, the statements are generally alright, which isn't always the case with such things.
@John_M
"I'm just happy to see Mr Dancer back on his agreed territory, per the lines of demarcation agreed at the last PB union congress, rather than trampling into the High Medieval and Renaissance eras in a blatant disregard for established working practices."
Thank you, Mr. M, That made me laugh like a drain.
Still not sure about this medieval renaissance split (let alone your suggestion that there was a "High" (and thus mid and lower) medieval period. Once, we can put Mr Dancer and young Darth Eagles back in their respective boxes (and leave them there squabbling about that loser Hannibal) perhaps we could move on to the big debate, was the renaissance any more that an italian clergyman's fantasy.
Let's say the negotiations see us leaving on New Years Day 2020. We will be out. The fact that it took a few years will be a moot point, getting a good deal is what matters.
One might argue the Renaissance was a flower sprouting from the grave of the Eastern Roman Empire.
England are lost - unless the muslim can save it. Go Moeen David.
I'm really proud of it, also, shockingly, said pun is very innuendo laden, no so much a double entendre, but a single entendre
It's pointless serving A50 in advance of the French election because Hollande is a dead man walking. Merkel however......
Kenny Baker, best known for playing R2D2, has died.
Mr. Recidivist, ha, there's certainly an element of that. But the opportunity to learn by vicarious rather than personal experience should not be passed up.
Mind you, the Ottomans did get to the gates of Vienna a couple of centuries later.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/08/13/trump_is_ready_to_face_the_prospect_that_he_might_lose_131500.html
On every level that explanation of our past is complete and utter rubbish. Yet it has hung about for hundreds of years. Why? Oxbridge in my view. "Never had a new thought, never read a new book" was (still is) the guiding principle of too many Oxbridge dons.
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.