politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » According to the betting markets, at least, Article 50 is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » According to the betting markets, at least, Article 50 is going to be invoked later rather than earlier
One of the betting markets I got into in the week after the referendum was when would Article 50 be invoked. My view was and remains is that this is going to take longer than many anticipated. I got 5/2 that it would be after the end of 2017 and I’ve got a bit on Betfair which has a cut off date for its final time segment of June 30th 2017.
Comments
-
First!0
-
A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...0 -
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.0 -
Well everyone knows that it's not going to be invoked before the next french elections in May.
The idea that the courts could overthrow the Lisbon Treaty in order to prevent the PM from invoking article 50 is a fantasy from the worst elements in society.0 -
Watching the discuss medal ceremony, two Germans and a Pole. What an immaculate display of the Olympic spirit. Huge smiles, applauding each other warmly. Lovely.0
-
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.0 -
FPT
UK is 242,000 sq km and has 64 million population.viewcode said:
I did not know that: one learns something new every day. But even having said that, 76% is still far short of 100%. The remaining 24% comes to ~16million people: does RoI produce enough food to feed that 16million as well as her own 5million?John_M said:
76% in home-grown foods according DEFRA in March 2016.viewcode said:
Fact check: is this even slightly true? I know that the UK is nowhere near food sufficiency and hasn't been for decades (centuries?). It never occurred to me to add RoI to things, simply because it's a different country. But even given that, I doubt this. Ireland hasn't got the climate to grow large quantities of wheat or corn, and as for fruit production (grape, bananas, oranges, peaches. etc) it's pretty much a non-starter in terms of bulk production. I'm willing to believe it produces beef, lamb, anything that can be produced by herding grazing animals that don't mind rain. But again, I can't see it producing nearly enough to feed the ~65million population of the UK as well as itself.Paul_Bedfordshire said:The British Isles are self sufficient in food
(PS Paul_Bedfordshire, I need to point out that I'm not picking on you with this post: it's just that the claim is so contra-intuitive it triggered my factcheck gene)
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515048/food-farming-stats-release-07apr16.pdf
RoI is 70,000 sq km.
Doing crude maths 242,000 sq km is enough to feed 48.6 million people.
Combined size of UK and RoI is 312,000 sq km.
That is enough land to feed 62 million.
Total pop of RoI + UK is 69 million so near as dammit there and wouldn't need much additional land put into production to be fully there.
In a war situation as robert alludes to the problem would be oil to run tractors etc. and getting shipping across Irish sea etc.
Ireland has a very very low population for its size and fertility of land. Prior to the potato famine in 19th century its population was 8.2 million in 1841 million at a time when the GB population was 18.5 million. Now the whole of Ireland is approx 6.5 million and GB 62.5 million.0 -
First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.0
-
Politically to wait until Hollande is out of office and see if his replacement is more reasonable.GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
Practically by the end of 2017, so that it does not become an election issue for 2020 even if negotiations take the full 2 year period.
If it does drag on beyond December 31st 2017, a big spat between the Tories and UKIP is to be expected on the 2020 GE.0 -
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.0 -
The uncertainty caused by the vote is of course nothing like as bad as some Remainers pretend, but it exists and is only made worse by pissing about before starting formal negotiations. Once A50 is triggered the shape of the Brexit deal will start becoming clearer and business will plan accordingly. Also, the two years isn't a hard timeline, it can be extended if needs be.
Get on with it Theresa.0 -
We're never leaving if this the brilliance of those in charge of making Brexit happen.
EU GAFFERS Liam Fox in Brexit howler as his team admits Brit businesses could be left facing crippling tariffs on EU deals
Officials insist the announcement had been a blunder, dubbing it 'a draft which was published in error'
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1601868/liam-foxs-department-redraws-announcement-that-britain-might-leave-the-eu-without-having-done-a-new-trade-deal/
I've always been of the view that Liam Fox couldn't find a cup of water even if you dropped him into the Atlantic Ocean, so far nothing is make me change my mind.
When even The Sun are criticising Leavers...0 -
Water, water everywhere...TheScreamingEagles said:We're never leaving if this the brilliance of those in charge of making Brexit happen.
EU GAFFERS Liam Fox in Brexit howler as his team admits Brit businesses could be left facing crippling tariffs on EU deals
Officials insist the announcement had been a blunder, dubbing it 'a draft which was published in error'
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1601868/liam-foxs-department-redraws-announcement-that-britain-might-leave-the-eu-without-having-done-a-new-trade-deal/
I've always been of the view that Liam Fox couldn't find a cup of water even if you dropped him into the Atlantic Ocean, so far nothing is make me change my mind.
When even The Sun are criticising Leavers...0 -
Practically it has to be resolved before January 1st 2020.Essexit said:The uncertainty caused by the vote is of course nothing like as bad as some Remainers pretend, but it exists and is only made worse by pissing about before starting formal negotiations. Once A50 is triggered the shape of the Brexit deal will start becoming clearer and business will plan accordingly. Also, the two years isn't a hard timeline, it can be extended if needs be.
Get on with it Theresa.
If not, it becomes an election issue and the danger for the Tory civil war, that was plainly seen during the referendum, to be repeated in a GE.0 -
I've never made the assertion that Fox was a fox.TheScreamingEagles said:We're never leaving if this the brilliance of those in charge of making Brexit happen.
EU GAFFERS Liam Fox in Brexit howler as his team admits Brit businesses could be left facing crippling tariffs on EU deals
Officials insist the announcement had been a blunder, dubbing it 'a draft which was published in error'
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1601868/liam-foxs-department-redraws-announcement-that-britain-might-leave-the-eu-without-having-done-a-new-trade-deal/
I've always been of the view that Liam Fox couldn't find a cup of water even if you dropped him into the Atlantic Ocean, so far nothing is make me change my mind.
When even The Sun are criticising Leavers...
His history as Defence Secretary was the reason why, and it's clear that he is the weakest link.
He has already been tested once in high office, only to resign in scandal.0 -
After the French presidential and German federal elections. No point negotiating with a man who definitely will and a woman who possibly might get the big heave-ho soon.0
-
In the grand scheme of things what do a few more years here or there matter.
I'm not so worried about timing. Of course it let's the negotiators off because any sane person will have lost interest and there will in any case be little scrutiny but that's the nature of the beast.0 -
Depressing thread. Whilst we're winning golds you can pretend it's 2012 and forget Brexit is a thing.0
-
Angela Merkel to 'urge chiefs of big companies to hire refugees'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/angela-merkel-to-urge-chiefs-of-big-companies-to-hire-refugees/0 -
Between Q1 2017 and Q1 2018 has always been the probable trigger date for A50. The argument to wait on the outcomes of the three major European elections next year has some merit - so October 2017.
I guess that a Brexit Investment and Development Strategy will form a very significant part of the autumn statement and 2017 budget. Flesh on the bones.0 -
It was German policy to push big companies to hire Easterners back in the 1990s. It took a long while to work.FrancisUrquhart said:Angela Merkel to 'urge chiefs of big companies to hire refugees'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/angela-merkel-to-urge-chiefs-of-big-companies-to-hire-refugees/0 -
He gets as much of a say as those of us who voted LeaveGeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.0 -
But this should not be seen as unexpected. Cecilia Malmstrom said so earlier.Speedy said:
I've never made the assertion that Fox was a fox.TheScreamingEagles said:We're never leaving if this the brilliance of those in charge of making Brexit happen.
EU GAFFERS Liam Fox in Brexit howler as his team admits Brit businesses could be left facing crippling tariffs on EU deals
Officials insist the announcement had been a blunder, dubbing it 'a draft which was published in error'
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1601868/liam-foxs-department-redraws-announcement-that-britain-might-leave-the-eu-without-having-done-a-new-trade-deal/
I've always been of the view that Liam Fox couldn't find a cup of water even if you dropped him into the Atlantic Ocean, so far nothing is make me change my mind.
When even The Sun are criticising Leavers...
His history as Defence Secretary was the reason why, and it's clear that he is the weakest link.
He has already been tested once in high office, only to resign in scandal.
It ain't gonna be so easy.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/01/cecilia-malmstrom-eu-trade-commissioner-brexit-uk-wto0 -
Murray through to the final, guaranteed his third medal. And the penultimate point was sensational.0
-
Britain are reluctant leavers.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.0 -
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.0 -
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.0 -
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.0 -
Great clubbing superheavyweight boxing match atm.0
-
Not sure why we should wait for these also rans on the medal table to elect their various leaders (I use the word in a notional sense) to start what after all is going to be a 2 year minimum process. We really should just get on with it.0
-
To be fair, Alastair has been quite vocal in saying that Leavers must own this, and that Leavers have to sort out the mess. I think that's the point Geoff was so delicately making!TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.0 -
At this point I'll give up. I can't troll in three directions at once AND watch the cricket at the same time.TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.
As you're on - I genuinely LOLed when someone made the pizza/Topping joke the other day!0 -
James Vince, the batting equivalent of Jade Dernbach?
Or am I being very, very, very, harsh on him?0 -
You can't troll in one direction without the cricket.GeoffM said:
At this point I'll give up. I can't troll in three directions at once AND watch the cricket at the same time.TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.
As you're on - I genuinely LOLed when someone made the pizza/Topping joke the other day!0 -
...and a point I will continue to make.RobD said:
To be fair, Alastair has been quite vocal in saying that Leavers must own this, and that Leavers have to sort out the mess. I think that's the point Geoff was so delicately making!TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.
It's YOU when it suits Alistair and WE when it suits him. Alastair needs to decide if he's inside or outside the tent.0 -
But this is exactly how it is. The A50 negotiations determine the terms of exit (budget payments, status of nationals and the like), not a UK/EU FTA. That could take years and may only start once we have left. It follows that an interim arrangement will be necessary and only two off the shelf options are available : WTO or EEA. This is a stark choice and it is looming much closer than is realised.TheScreamingEagles said:We're never leaving if this the brilliance of those in charge of making Brexit happen.
EU GAFFERS Liam Fox in Brexit howler as his team admits Brit businesses could be left facing crippling tariffs on EU deals
Officials insist the announcement had been a blunder, dubbing it 'a draft which was published in error'
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1601868/liam-foxs-department-redraws-announcement-that-britain-might-leave-the-eu-without-having-done-a-new-trade-deal/
I've always been of the view that Liam Fox couldn't find a cup of water even if you dropped him into the Atlantic Ocean, so far nothing is make me change my mind.
When even The Sun are criticising Leavers...0 -
Well with the appointment of the terrible three, Theresa evidently agrees that Brexiteers must sort it out.RobD said:
To be fair, Alastair has been quite vocal in saying that Leavers must own this, and that Leavers have to sort out the mess. I think that's the point Geoff was so delicately making!TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.0 -
Mr. Eagles, I don't speak cricketese. Could you use the Malonado-Badoer scale, please?
Edited extra bit: Maldonado-Badoer, even.0 -
Only on Jade Dernbach.TheScreamingEagles said:James Vince, the batting equivalent of Jade Dernbach?
Or am I being very, very, very, harsh on him?0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/pro-brexit-staff-could-take-legal-action-over-bullying-at-work/
Ironic that the basis of this legal action is an EU directive!0 -
Indeed it would make it likely that a bit of anglo-bashing becomes a competitive sport in their elections.DavidL said:Not sure why we should wait for these also rans on the medal table to elect their various leaders (I use the word in a notional sense) to start what after all is going to be a 2 year minimum process. We really should just get on with it.
At the moment we have all the uncertainty of Brexit combined with all the financial and social costs of being in. The worst of both worlds.0 -
0
-
You think Theresa will have nothing to say on the matter? You're having a laugh.....TOPPING said:
Well with the appointment of the terrible three, Theresa evidently agrees that Brexiteers must sort it out.RobD said:
To be fair, Alastair has been quite vocal in saying that Leavers must own this, and that Leavers have to sort out the mess. I think that's the point Geoff was so delicately making!TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.0 -
Jade Dernbach is the worst bowler to play cricket for England, if he was an F1 driver, he'd be the driver that gets repeatedly lapped by Luca Badoer.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I don't speak cricketese. Could you use the Malonado-Badoer scale, please?
Edited extra bit: Maldonado-Badoer, even.0 -
Mr. Eagles, thanks for the translation.0
-
The Discuss medal sounds likle something awarded here on PB rather than at the Olympics.TOPPING said:Watching the discuss medal ceremony, two Germans and a Pole. What an immaculate display of the Olympic spirit. Huge smiles, applauding each other warmly. Lovely.
0 -
Indeed. She is well-known for micro-managing but PM is different from HS and she must realise that also.RobD said:
You think Theresa will have nothing to say on the matter? You're having a laugh.....TOPPING said:
Well with the appointment of the terrible three, Theresa evidently agrees that Brexiteers must sort it out.RobD said:
To be fair, Alastair has been quite vocal in saying that Leavers must own this, and that Leavers have to sort out the mess. I think that's the point Geoff was so delicately making!TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.0 -
So they are economic migrants.FrancisUrquhart said:Angela Merkel to 'urge chiefs of big companies to hire refugees'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/angela-merkel-to-urge-chiefs-of-big-companies-to-hire-refugees/0 -
BBC - A knifeman has set fire to a train in north-eastern Switzerland, leaving six people in hospital with stab wounds and burns, police say.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37072847
Police have not revealed Dave’s name yet…
0 -
She will have a say, but the three ministers must make their case. If they prefer a WTO hard brexit then let them justify it and demonstrate significant business support. If they conclude that hard brexit is an unacceptable risk then it is they who must announce to the world that we must stay within the EEA.RobD said:
You think Theresa will have nothing to say on the matter? You're having a laugh.....TOPPING said:
Well with the appointment of the terrible three, Theresa evidently agrees that Brexiteers must sort it out.RobD said:
To be fair, Alastair has been quite vocal in saying that Leavers must own this, and that Leavers have to sort out the mess. I think that's the point Geoff was so delicately making!TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.0 -
Looks like an interesting ComRes online poll out tonight
We asked people to choose which of the following pairs of statements comes closer to their view:
• Jeremy Corbyn would make a better leader of the Labour Party – Owen Smith would make a better leader of the Labour Party
• Grammar schools are good for social mobility, giving the less privileged a chance to succeed – Grammar schools are bad for social mobility, they mainly help those who are privileged already
• The Government should allow new grammar schools that select pupils through the 11-plus exam – The Government should keep the ban on new grammar schools that select pupils through the 11-plus
• I would prefer Donald Trump to be the next President of the USA – I would prefer Hillary Clinton to be the next President of the USA
• I believe MI5 is behind some online criticism of Jeremy Corbyn – I do not believe MI5 is behind some online criticism of Jeremy Corbyn
• The House of Lords should be abolished – The House of Lords plays a useful role scrutinising laws passed by government
• There are real similarities between Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher – Theresa May cannot be compared to Margaret Thatcher
• It is the job of politicians to make decisions about the future of the country – The public should be asked in referendums to decide on major decisions about Britain’s future0 -
Haha indeed. Honourable runner up to @williamglenn's PPE typo yesterday.David_Evershed said:
The Discuss medal sounds likle something awarded here on PB rather than at the Olympics.TOPPING said:Watching the discuss medal ceremony, two Germans and a Pole. What an immaculate display of the Olympic spirit. Huge smiles, applauding each other warmly. Lovely.
0 -
I'm pretty sure it'll be the PM who announces our position on leaving the EU.PeterC said:
She will have a say, but the three ministrs must make their case. If they prefer a WTO hard brexit then let them justify it and deminstrate significant business support. If they conclude that hard brexit is an unacceptable risk then it is they who must announce to the world that we must stay within the EEA.RobD said:
You think Theresa will have nothing to say on the matter? You're having a laugh.....TOPPING said:
Well with the appointment of the terrible three, Theresa evidently agrees that Brexiteers must sort it out.RobD said:
To be fair, Alastair has been quite vocal in saying that Leavers must own this, and that Leavers have to sort out the mess. I think that's the point Geoff was so delicately making!TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.0 -
I don't think so, I think its we're reluctant revolutionaries.surbiton said:
Britain are reluctant leavers.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.0 -
Not sure we don't already.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.0 -
It was actually worse than that. It was plain wrong. The crippling tariffs bit is just the journalists misunderstanding the nature of the gaffe.TheScreamingEagles said:We're never leaving if this the brilliance of those in charge of making Brexit happen.
EU GAFFERS Liam Fox in Brexit howler as his team admits Brit businesses could be left facing crippling tariffs on EU deals
Officials insist the announcement had been a blunder, dubbing it 'a draft which was published in error'
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1601868/liam-foxs-department-redraws-announcement-that-britain-might-leave-the-eu-without-having-done-a-new-trade-deal/
I've always been of the view that Liam Fox couldn't find a cup of water even if you dropped him into the Atlantic Ocean, so far nothing is make me change my mind.
When even The Sun are criticising Leavers...0 -
I agree. Mrs May will announce it but will make clear that Fox & Co own it as much as she does. She will want to avoid any talk of 'a Remain conspiracy to subvert the will of the people'.RobD said:
I'm pretty sure it'll be the PM who announces our position on leaving the EU.PeterC said:
She will have a say, but the three ministrs must make their case. If they prefer a WTO hard brexit then let them justify it and deminstrate significant business support. If they conclude that hard brexit is an unacceptable risk then it is they who must announce to the world that we must stay within the EEA.RobD said:
You think Theresa will have nothing to say on the matter? You're having a laugh.....TOPPING said:
Well with the appointment of the terrible three, Theresa evidently agrees that Brexiteers must sort it out.RobD said:
To be fair, Alastair has been quite vocal in saying that Leavers must own this, and that Leavers have to sort out the mess. I think that's the point Geoff was so delicately making!TOPPING said:
Who pissed on your chips today?GeoffM said:
Ah, on the subject of losers...along you come. Sunny in your part of the world is it?felix said:
Idiot comment of the day award.GeoffM said:
"We"? You're not included in this.AlastairMeeks said:First we need a negotiating position. No doubt the government will alight on one in due course. Then the fun begins.
You lost. Go away.
It'd have to compete, to be honest, with everything you might have dribbled today.0 -
No question on AV though.....TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like an interesting ComRes online poll out tonight
We asked people to choose which of the following pairs of statements comes closer to their view:
• Jeremy Corbyn would make a better leader of the Labour Party – Owen Smith would make a better leader of the Labour Party
• Grammar schools are good for social mobility, giving the less privileged a chance to succeed – Grammar schools are bad for social mobility, they mainly help those who are privileged already
• The Government should allow new grammar schools that select pupils through the 11-plus exam – The Government should keep the ban on new grammar schools that select pupils through the 11-plus
• I would prefer Donald Trump to be the next President of the USA – I would prefer Hillary Clinton to be the next President of the USA
• I believe MI5 is behind some online criticism of Jeremy Corbyn – I do not believe MI5 is behind some online criticism of Jeremy Corbyn
• The House of Lords should be abolished – The House of Lords plays a useful role scrutinising laws passed by government
• There are real similarities between Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher – Theresa May cannot be compared to Margaret Thatcher
• It is the job of politicians to make decisions about the future of the country – The public should be asked in referendums to decide on major decisions about Britain’s future0 -
Bit harsh. Can't have them languishing about doing nothing.nunu said:
So they are economic migrants.FrancisUrquhart said:Angela Merkel to 'urge chiefs of big companies to hire refugees'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/angela-merkel-to-urge-chiefs-of-big-companies-to-hire-refugees/0 -
Mr. Eagles, "giving the less privileged a chance to succeed ... they mainly help those who are privileged already" - this is badly worded as both can be true.
The May-Thatcher statement is also a bit iffy, as some things might be compared (female leaders) and others can't (very different times).
That said, the statements are generally alright, which isn't always the case with such things.0 -
Orderly leavers.0
-
We will not invoke it.0
-
Yes 52:48 isn't overwhelming. Then you start to find that the 52 split any number of ways when it comes to the details.surbiton said:
Britain are reluctant leavers.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.0 -
Surely that is it for Vince. This team is not good enough to consistently play with 10 men.0
-
Economic migrants should return home.John_M said:
Bit harsh. Can't have them languishing about doing nothing.nunu said:
So they are economic migrants.FrancisUrquhart said:Angela Merkel to 'urge chiefs of big companies to hire refugees'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/angela-merkel-to-urge-chiefs-of-big-companies-to-hire-refugees/0 -
Surely this just proves that OGH was right when he consistently pointed out that no one really cares about Europe. Barely an issue at all.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like an interesting ComRes online poll out tonight
We asked people to choose which of the following pairs of statements comes closer to their view:
• Jeremy Corbyn would make a better leader of the Labour Party – Owen Smith would make a better leader of the Labour Party
• Grammar schools are good for social mobility, giving the less privileged a chance to succeed – Grammar schools are bad for social mobility, they mainly help those who are privileged already
• The Government should allow new grammar schools that select pupils through the 11-plus exam – The Government should keep the ban on new grammar schools that select pupils through the 11-plus
• I would prefer Donald Trump to be the next President of the USA – I would prefer Hillary Clinton to be the next President of the USA
• I believe MI5 is behind some online criticism of Jeremy Corbyn – I do not believe MI5 is behind some online criticism of Jeremy Corbyn
• The House of Lords should be abolished – The House of Lords plays a useful role scrutinising laws passed by government
• There are real similarities between Theresa May and Margaret Thatcher – Theresa May cannot be compared to Margaret Thatcher
• It is the job of politicians to make decisions about the future of the country – The public should be asked in referendums to decide on major decisions about Britain’s future0 -
FPT
@John_M
"I'm just happy to see Mr Dancer back on his agreed territory, per the lines of demarcation agreed at the last PB union congress, rather than trampling into the High Medieval and Renaissance eras in a blatant disregard for established working practices."
Thank you, Mr. M, That made me laugh like a drain.
Still not sure about this medieval renaissance split (let alone your suggestion that there was a "High" (and thus mid and lower) medieval period. Once, we can put Mr Dancer and young Darth Eagles back in their respective boxes (and leave them there squabbling about that loser Hannibal) perhaps we could move on to the big debate, was the renaissance any more that an italian clergyman's fantasy.0 -
Not remotely. It is quite logical to invoke Article 50 in about November 2017 to January 2018. This window is perfect as it gets out of the way the French and German elections (as well as a few other big ones) ensuring "being tough on the English" doesn't become a campaign issue for them during our window. Secondly it ensures our two year window ends in plenty of time for a 2020 General Election.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.
Let's say the negotiations see us leaving on New Years Day 2020. We will be out. The fact that it took a few years will be a moot point, getting a good deal is what matters.0 -
Mr. Llama, whilst you are, as always, utterly wrong about Hannibal, I did miss that post by Mr. M, so thanks for quoting it.
One might argue the Renaissance was a flower sprouting from the grave of the Eastern Roman Empire.0 -
Not if they're economically valuable. Besides what else should a refugee who has been granted leave to remain be doing other than working?David_Evershed said:
Economic migrants should return home.John_M said:
Bit harsh. Can't have them languishing about doing nothing.nunu said:
So they are economic migrants.FrancisUrquhart said:Angela Merkel to 'urge chiefs of big companies to hire refugees'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/13/angela-merkel-to-urge-chiefs-of-big-companies-to-hire-refugees/0 -
I try and spread love and joy unto all, so thank you. It's all arbitrary, don't you think? I know the 'Dark Ages' are de trop these days, but even so we should be careful about lazy categorisation (a sin I'm often guilty of, mea culpa).HurstLlama said:FPT
@John_M
"I'm just happy to see Mr Dancer back on his agreed territory, per the lines of demarcation agreed at the last PB union congress, rather than trampling into the High Medieval and Renaissance eras in a blatant disregard for established working practices."
Thank you, Mr. M, That made me laugh like a drain.
Still not sure about this medieval renaissance split (let alone your suggestion that there was a "High" (and thus mid and lower) medieval period. Once, we can put Mr Dancer and young Darth Eagles back in their respective boxes (and leave them there squabbling about that loser Hannibal) perhaps we could move on to the big debate, was the renaissance any more that an italian clergyman's fantasy.0 -
Root out.
England are lost - unless the muslim can save it. Go Moeen David.0 -
Well this is going well at the Oval. Cook's decision to bat is looking about as bad as Nasser's decision to bowl at the Gabba in 2002.0
-
I'm not sure everyone here would pass the drugs test.....David_Evershed said:
The Discuss medal sounds likle something awarded here on PB rather than at the Olympics.TOPPING said:Watching the discuss medal ceremony, two Germans and a Pole. What an immaculate display of the Olympic spirit. Huge smiles, applauding each other warmly. Lovely.
0 -
Oi !MarqueeMark said:
I'm not sure everyone here would pass the drugs test.....David_Evershed said:
The Discuss medal sounds likle something awarded here on PB rather than at the Olympics.TOPPING said:Watching the discuss medal ceremony, two Germans and a Pole. What an immaculate display of the Olympic spirit. Huge smiles, applauding each other warmly. Lovely.
0 -
I feel first half of 2017 has to be a decent possibility. A lot of hurdles and no need to rush and all that, but some are already antsy, and I can see the pressure to pull the trigger as we approach within months of the year since the vote.0
-
We also don't mention the D word on PB......SimonStClare said:
Oi !MarqueeMark said:
I'm not sure everyone here would pass the drugs test.....David_Evershed said:
The Discuss medal sounds likle something awarded here on PB rather than at the Olympics.TOPPING said:Watching the discuss medal ceremony, two Germans and a Pole. What an immaculate display of the Olympic spirit. Huge smiles, applauding each other warmly. Lovely.
0 -
Mr. D., one might also argue that the sun rises in the West. The Renaissance never actually existed, it was a figment of the imagination of a nutty Italian clergyman, bigged up by Victorian era sentimentality (God knows the victorians did some humongous damage to the the understanding of history)..Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, whilst you are, as always, utterly wrong about Hannibal, I did miss that post by Mr. M, so thanks for quoting it.
One might argue the Renaissance was a flower sprouting from the grave of the Eastern Roman Empire.0 -
Possibly this could be the reason for Alistair's inexplicable loss of good form.RobD said:
We also don't mention the D word on PB......SimonStClare said:
Oi !MarqueeMark said:
I'm not sure everyone here would pass the drugs test.....David_Evershed said:
The Discuss medal sounds likle something awarded here on PB rather than at the Olympics.TOPPING said:Watching the discuss medal ceremony, two Germans and a Pole. What an immaculate display of the Olympic spirit. Huge smiles, applauding each other warmly. Lovely.
0 -
I have come up with the greatest pun in PB history for tomorrow's thread.
I'm really proud of it, also, shockingly, said pun is very innuendo laden, no so much a double entendre, but a single entendre0 -
The electoral issue is a strange one. There will be some pressure to be tough, but there will also be pressure to be pragmatic and protect national economies and jobs.Philip_Thompson said:
Not remotely. It is quite logical to invoke Article 50 in about November 2017 to January 2018. This window is perfect as it gets out of the way the French and German elections (as well as a few other big ones) ensuring "being tough on the English" doesn't become a campaign issue for them during our window. Secondly it ensures our two year window ends in plenty of time for a 2020 General Election.GIN1138 said:
You vote to leave. And then you don't leave. Infact, you don't even trigger the formal steps to begin the process of leaving.GeoffM said:
"laughing stock of the world"?GIN1138 said:A delay while we sort ourselves out is fine but if this goes on too long we'll become the laughing stock of the world.
I think, Q1 or Q2 2017 is about as long as this can go on for. If we get to June 2017, one year after we voted to LEAVE and we still haven't invoked A50 expect "ructions" across England and Wales...
A tad over the top there, I feel.
We'd look ridiculous.
Let's say the negotiations see us leaving on New Years Day 2020. We will be out. The fact that it took a few years will be a moot point, getting a good deal is what matters.
It's pointless serving A50 in advance of the French election because Hollande is a dead man walking. Merkel however......0 -
Grim Reaper claims another one.
Kenny Baker, best known for playing R2D2, has died.0 -
Bobby SolTheScreamingEagles said:James Vince, the batting equivalent of Jade Dernbach?
Or am I being very, very, very, harsh on him?0 -
Mr. Llama, can't argue against the idea that revisionists trying to impose contemporary perspectives on history are daft.0
-
I think history is basically gossip with a bigger vocabulary anyway.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, can't argue against the idea that revisionists trying to impose contemporary perspectives on history are daft.
0 -
I still feel 1497 is a very important watershed. Ultimately it did for both Venice and the Ottomans.HurstLlama said:
Mr. D., one might also argue that the sun rises in the West. The Renaissance never actually existed, it was a figment of the imagination of a nutty Italian clergyman, bigged up by Victorian era sentimentality (God knows the victorians did some humongous damage to the the understanding of history)..Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, whilst you are, as always, utterly wrong about Hannibal, I did miss that post by Mr. M, so thanks for quoting it.
One might argue the Renaissance was a flower sprouting from the grave of the Eastern Roman Empire.0 -
Mr. M, what happened in 1497?
Mr. Recidivist, ha, there's certainly an element of that. But the opportunity to learn by vicarious rather than personal experience should not be passed up.0 -
Not really. It is clearly a fine pitch for batting as the Pakistani's have proven, so deciding to bat on it made sense. We just haven't batted well on it.tlg86 said:Well this is going well at the Oval. Cook's decision to bat is looking about as bad as Nasser's decision to bowl at the Gabba in 2002.
0 -
Vasco da Gama's first voyage to India. Ultimately, European powers were able to divert Asiatic trade from its traditional channels, undermining the Eastern Mediterranean economy.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, what happened in 1497?
Mr. Recidivist, ha, there's certainly an element of that. But the opportunity to learn by vicarious rather than personal experience should not be passed up.0 -
Mr. M, ah, right.
Mind you, the Ottomans did get to the gates of Vienna a couple of centuries later.0 -
One of my teachers was a direct descendant of Vasco de Gama – mad as a box of frogs.John_M said:
Vasco da Gama's first voyage to India. Ultimately, European powers were able to divert Asiatic trade from its traditional channels, undermining the Eastern Mediterranean economy.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, what happened in 1497?
Mr. Recidivist, ha, there's certainly an element of that. But the opportunity to learn by vicarious rather than personal experience should not be passed up.0 -
Mike Littwin of the "Colorado Independent" via RCP assesses whether Trump deniers who called the primaries wrong are wary of calling the POTUS race over as the Donald limps from one horror story to another :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/08/13/trump_is_ready_to_face_the_prospect_that_he_might_lose_131500.html0 -
Quite so, Mr. D When I was at school we were taught the that the middle ages ended in 1485. Why? Because from then on the monarchs were the Tudors who lifted us from the Darkness in to the new age of the Renaissance.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Llama, can't argue against the idea that revisionists trying to impose contemporary perspectives on history are daft.
On every level that explanation of our past is complete and utter rubbish. Yet it has hung about for hundreds of years. Why? Oxbridge in my view. "Never had a new thought, never read a new book" was (still is) the guiding principle of too many Oxbridge dons.0 -
Mr. StClare, counter-intuitive things happen with direct descendants over long periods of time. Over 99% of Anglo-Saxon Englishmen are directly descended from Mohammed. [Because John of Gaunt had many children, and I think his wife was descended from a Moorish noble who was descended from Mohammed].
Edited extra bit: for those wondering, the source for that is Ian Mortimer, in his biography of Edward III.0
