@Jonathan The Conservatives were rising in the polls before the Falklands. Labour were higher in the polls at the end of 1982 than at the beginning of that year.
The main impact of the Falklands War was to squash the Alliance (whose support halved in the calendar year of 1982), not Labour.
So, in short, to be as bad as 83. Labour needs a strong 3rd party challenge and a Tory leader with (at least the equaivalent of) a post war victory bounce.
Labour has got the 3rd party challenge in Scotland already. But UKIP and the LDs are weaker than the Alliance.
I doubt May will be popular come 2020, nothing like Thatcher in 83.
Yes, the Labour Party will retain a very large number of seats even on a very low voting share in the absence of a credible centre left alternative. Of course if there is a split of a significant part of the PLP then all bets are off.
Any Labour MP facing the Tories with less than a 5,000 majority should feel very concerned. A lot of Labour voters will stay at home if Corbyn is leader, while others will switch direct to the Tories or to the LibDems.
The first challenge for Labour MPs will be to make it on to the ballot if their CLPs have been overrun by Momentum.
Never mind Momentum, it seems the SWP will be made some kind of federal membership organization under the latest suicide plans.
Trump's white working class support overlaps strongly with the voters who most heavily backed Leave and opposition to NAFTA drives many of them too. Boris withdrew from the leadership campaign himself and was still more popular with voters as a whole than Tory MPs when he withdrew. Yet it was Tory MPs he needed to woo before he could get his leadership bid off the ground. Trump is not trying to win Republican Congressmen to become Speaker of the House or Senate Majority leader otherwise he would have no chance
Trump needs to woo traditional republicans who support free trade and capitalism. His failure to do that is why he's losing. He has been unable to reach across the left right divide in the same way leave did while also pissing off traditional republicans. Trump is a busted flush, even if he became disciplined and stayed on message to attack Hillary's record he probably wouldn't win. He's damaged goods, beyond rescue. I say this as someone who thought a Trump presidency might be interesting and wouldn't have been as bothered by it as most people. I don't see any path for him to victory in a nation that has an electoral college. He needs to overturn too many safe blue states and hold too many toss ups, without losing places like Arizona and even Texas which have high Hispanic populations.
Leave did not win by appealing to traditional conservatives who backed free trade and capitalism, both the Leave campaign and Trump in the primaries won by appealing to white working class voters concerned about immigration primarily and the fact they were being ignored by the establishment. Trump added some protectionism too which is also evident on the Leave side with those opposed to UK membership of the single market
Wrong. Leave.EU and Niger Farage wanted to concentrate solely on the WWC anti immigrant vote and that would have been a losing strategy. Vote Leave concentrated on winning that Vote AND free trade Conservatives etc too which got them up to 52%. With only the WWC they would have lost comprehensively.
Having two separate Leave campaigns was a good strategy.
Trump's white working class support overlaps strongly with the voters who most heavily backed Leave and opposition to NAFTA drives many of them too. Boris withdrew from the leadership campaign himself and was still more popular with voters as a whole than Tory MPs when he withdrew. Yet it was Tory MPs he needed to woo before he could get his leadership bid off the ground. Trump is not trying to win Republican Congressmen to become Speaker of the House or Senate Majority leader otherwise he would have no chance
Trump needs to woo traditional republicans who support free trade and capitalism. His failure to do that is why he's losing. He has been unable to reach across the left right divide in the same way leave did while also pissing off traditional republicans. Trump is a busted flush, even if he became disciplined and stayed on message to attack Hillary's record he probably wouldn't win. He's damaged goods, beyond rescue. I say this as someone who thought a Trump presidency might be interesting and wouldn't have been as bothered by it as most people. I don't see any path for him to victory in a nation that has an electoral college. He needs to overturn too many safe blue states and hold too many toss ups, without losing places like Arizona and even Texas which have high Hispanic populations.
Leave did not win by appealing to traditional conservatives who backed free trade and capitalism, both the Leave campaign and Trump in the primaries won by appealing to white working class voters concerned about immigration primarily and the fact they were being ignored by the establishment. Trump added some protectionism too which is also evident on the Leave side with those opposed to UK membership of the single market
Wrong. Leave.EU and Niger Farage wanted to concentrate solely on the WWC anti immigrant vote and that would have been a losing strategy. Vote Leave concentrated on winning that Vote AND free trade Conservatives etc too which got them up to 52%. With only the WWC they would have lost comprehensively.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
@Jonathan The Conservatives were rising in the polls before the Falklands. Labour were higher in the polls at the end of 1982 than at the beginning of that year.
The main impact of the Falklands War was to squash the Alliance (whose support halved in the calendar year of 1982), not Labour.
So, in short, to be as bad as 83. Labour needs a strong 3rd party challenge and a Tory leader with (at least the equaivalent of) a post war victory bounce.
Labour has got the 3rd party challenge in Scotland already. But UKIP and the LDs are weaker than the Alliance.
I doubt May will be popular come 2020, nothing like Thatcher in 83.
Yes, the Labour Party will retain a very large number of seats even on a very low voting share in the absence of a credible centre left alternative. Of course if there is a split of a significant part of the PLP then all bets are off.
Any Labour MP facing the Tories with less than a 5,000 majority should feel very concerned. A lot of Labour voters will stay at home if Corbyn is leader, while others will switch direct to the Tories or to the LibDems.
I'd put that figure a bit higher in the Midlands, maybe 6,000+. There's much more of a tradition of straight switching from Labour --> Tory --> Labour there, rather than messing about with the LibDems.
Corbyn at the helm could see a reverse '97, with some WTF??? seats changing hands.
Yep, I agree. If Labour thought 2015 was bad in the Midlands, they ain't seen nothing yet. It will be utter carnage if Corbyn is still in charge.
Why?
The Midlands is swinging very heavily away from Labour, politically.
Just look at the Leave vote there. Huge.
Outside of the West Midlands conurbation, Stoke, Leicester, and Nottingham, the Midlands is now very bad for Labour (and Stoke is starting to look shaky).
@Jonathan The Conservatives were rising in the polls before the Falklands. Labour were higher in the polls at the end of 1982 than at the beginning of that year.
The main impact of the Falklands War was to squash the Alliance (whose support halved in the calendar year of 1982), not Labour.
So, in short, to be as bad as 83. Labour needs a strong 3rd party challenge and a Tory leader with (at least the equaivalent of) a post war victory bounce.
Labour has got the 3rd party challenge in Scotland already. But UKIP and the LDs are weaker than the Alliance.
I doubt May will be popular come 2020, nothing like Thatcher in 83.
Yes, the Labour Party will retain a very large number of seats even on a very low voting share in the absence of a credible centre left alternative. Of course if there is a split of a significant part of the PLP then all bets are off.
Any Labour MP facing the Tories with less than a 5,000 majority should feel very concerned. A lot of Labour voters will stay at home if Corbyn is leader, while others will switch direct to the Tories or to the LibDems.
The first challenge for Labour MPs will be to make it on to the ballot if their CLPs have been overrun by Momentum.
Never mind Momentum, it seems the SWP will be made some kind of federal membership organization under the latest suicide plans.
That gets nicely around all those expelled Militant members... errr
Trump's white working class support overlaps strongly with the voters who most heavily backed Leave and opposition to NAFTA drives many of them too. Boris withdrew from the leadership campaign himself and was still more popular with voters as a whole than Tory MPs when he withdrew. Yet it was Tory MPs he needed to woo before he could get his leadership bid off the ground. Trump is not trying to win Republican Congressmen to become Speaker of the House or Senate Majority leader otherwise he would have no chance
Trump needs to woo traditional republicans who support free trade and capitalism. His failure to do that is why he's losing. He has been unable to reach across the left right divide in the same way leave did while also pissing off traditional republicans. Trump is a busted flush, even if he became disciplined and stayed on message to attack Hillary's record he probably wouldn't win. He's damaged goods, beyond rescue. I say this as someone who thought a Trump presidency might be interesting and wouldn't have been as bothered by it as most people. I don't see any path for him to victory in a nation that has an electoral college. He needs to overturn too many safe blue states and hold too many toss ups, without losing places like Arizona and even Texas which have high Hispanic populations.
Leave did not win by appealing to traditional conservatives who backed free trade and capitalism, both the Leave campaign and Trump in the primaries won by appealing to white working class voters concerned about immigration primarily and the fact they were being ignored by the establishment. Trump added some protectionism too which is also evident on the Leave side with those opposed to UK membership of the single market
Wrong. Leave.EU and Niger Farage wanted to concentrate solely on the WWC anti immigrant vote and that would have been a losing strategy. Vote Leave concentrated on winning that Vote AND free trade Conservatives etc too which got them up to 52%. With only the WWC they would have lost comprehensively.
Having two separate Leave campaigns was a good strategy.
Fina spent £560,000 on anti-doping in 2015 - approximately one tenth of the figure that cycling's governing body, the UCI, spent.
What a joke....even cage fighting, with a terrible reputation for PED use, is spending more than that on anti-doping.
Swimming has a problem, we've already lost a couple of medals from swimmers who have previously been banned, so shouldn't be there. James Guy's bronze in the 200 freestyle and Chloe Tutton bronze last night (who was fuming in her post race interview, good for her) in the 200 breastroke.
Forgive me if I'm wrong but you follow cycling don't you? What do you think about our chances, each team looked incredibly good last night, so maybe we are going to be much better than was feared earlier this year?
I think Edgbaston is the only place I could conceive myself voting Labour.
And if Gisela was up against someone like Soubry, I'd pound the streets for her with a red rosette.
I think that if Corbyn wins and the mass boycott of the Shadow Cabinet subsides, appointing Gisela to a senior position would be a good move. Much though I disagreed with her over Brexit, she's got the toughness and street cred needed, and she's not hysterically anti-Europe, merely in favour in withdrawal, which is an issue decided for now.
Trump's white working class support overlaps strongly with the voters who most heavily backed Leave and opposition to NAFTA drives many of them too. Boris withdrew from the leadership campaign himself and was still more popular with voters as a whole than Tory MPs when he withdrew. Yet it was Tory MPs he needed to woo before he could get his leadership bid off the ground. Trump is not trying to win Republican Congressmen to become Speaker of the House or Senate Majority leader otherwise he would have no chance
Trump needs to woo traditional republicans who support free trade and capitalism. His failure to do that is why he's losing. He has been unable to reach across the left right divide in the same way leave did while also pissing off traditional republicans. Trump is a busted flush, even if he became disciplined and stayed on message to attack Hillary's record he probably wouldn't win. He's damaged goods, beyond rescue. I say this as someone who thought a Trump presidency might be interesting and wouldn't have been as bothered by it as most people. I don't see any path for him to victory in a nation that has an electoral college. He needs to overturn too many safe blue states and hold too many toss ups, without losing places like Arizona and even Texas which have high Hispanic populations.
Leave did not win by appealing to traditional conservatives who backed free trade and capitalism, both the Leave campaign and Trump in the primaries won by appealing to white working class voters concerned about immigration primarily and the fact they were being ignored by the establishment. Trump added some protectionism too which is also evident on the Leave side with those opposed to UK membership of the single market
Wrong. Leave.EU and Niger Farage wanted to concentrate solely on the WWC anti immigrant vote and that would have been a losing strategy. Vote Leave concentrated on winning that Vote AND free trade Conservatives etc too which got them up to 52%. With only the WWC they would have lost comprehensively.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
But, without the 43% of AB's who voted Leave, Leave would have lost. White working class and lower middle class voters took Leave a long way towards winning, but wouldn't have taken them over the finishing line, on their own.
Putting a competent business leader up as a candidate vs a Labour MP with zero business competence. Expect Labour to win as Birmingham have been picking lousy Leaders for years and seem to care little about the competence of them. We can pray for a Damascene conversion to sanity.
Putting up a competent business leader -- is that a good thing? Will Trump be president? Did Stuart Rose win it for Remain?
Trump competent? Stuart Rose was just an honest competent business man.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
Putting a competent business leader up as a candidate vs a Labour MP with zero business competence. Expect Labour to win as Birmingham have been picking lousy Leaders for years and seem to care little about the competence of them. We can pray for a Damascene conversion to sanity.
Putting up a competent business leader -- is that a good thing? Will Trump be president? Did Stuart Rose win it for Remain?
Trump competent? Stuart Rose was just an honest competent business man.
With no inkling that when he admitted honestly that immigration from E Europe kept wages at rock bottom and thus fostered inequality, not everyone would regard that as a good thing.
Trump's white working class support overlaps strongly with the voters who most heavily backed Leave and opposition to NAFTA drives many of them too. Boris withdrew from the leadership campaign himself and was still more popular with voters as a whole than Tory MPs when he withdrew. Yet it was Tory MPs he needed to woo before he could get his leadership bid off the ground. Trump is not trying to win Republican Congressmen to become Speaker of the House or Senate Majority leader otherwise he would have no chance
Trump needs to woo traditional republicans who support free trade and capitalism. His failure to do that is why he's losing. He has been unable to reach across the left right divide in the same way leave did while also pissing off ulations.
Leave did not win by appealing to traditional conservatives who backed free trade and capitalism, both the Leave campaign and Trump in the primaries won by appealing to white working class voters concerned about immigration primarily and the fact they were being ignored by the establishment. Trump added some protectionism too which is also evident on the Leave side with those opposed to UK membership of the single market
Wrong. Leave.EU and Niger Farage wanted to concentrate solely on the WWC anti immigrant vote and that would have been a losing strategy. Vote Leave concentrated on winning that Vote AND free trade Conservatives etc too which got them up to 52%. With only the WWC they would have lost comprehensively.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
But, without the 43% of AB's who voted Leave, Leave would have lost. White working class and lower middle class voters took Leave a long way towards winning, but wouldn't have taken them over the finishing line, on their own.
43% of ABs may have voted Leave regardless, it was the over 60% of C2s who voted Leave who were the cornerstone of the Leave victory and the focus for the Leave campaign. Even Trump will win some graduates, especially whites but it will be the size of his lead with the white working class which will determine his fate
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
Trump actually almost tied Hillary with white college graduates after the GOP convention, if he moves back up in the polls he will likely make inroads again there too
1. Great Britain and her Former Colonies: 219 2. China: 30 3. Japan: 22 4. Korea 5. Hungary
On that basis if we include the US, India, Nigeria and Hong Kong, Great Britain and her former colonies will constitute the largest economy in the world in 2050
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
There was a class and educational divide, but not that big a one. 43% of professional people voted Leave as did 42% of graduates. Taking into account retirees who had professional jobs at a time when far fewer people went to university narrows the gap further.
The really big divide seems to have been geographical (which probably means attitudinal). Inner London, university cities, Scotland, the M3 and M4 corridors, all voted Remain, sometimes by huge margins. Provincial England and Wales voted Leave, sometimes by huge margins.
@Jonathan The Conservatives were rising in the polls before the Falklands. Labour were higher in the polls at the end of 1982 than at the beginning of that year.
The main impact of the Falklands War was to squash the Alliance (whose support halved in the calendar year of 1982), not Labour.
So, in short, to be as bad as 83. Labour needs a strong 3rd party challenge and a Tory leader with (at least the equaivalent of) a post war victory bounce.
Labour has got the 3rd party challenge in Scotland already. But UKIP and the LDs are weaker than the Alliance.
I doubt May will be popular come 2020, nothing like Thatcher in 83.
Yes, the Labour Party will retain a very large number of seats even on a very low voting share in the absence of a credible centre left alternative. Of course if there is a split of a significant part of the PLP then all bets are off.
Any Labour MP facing the Tories with less than a 5,000 majority should feel very concerned. A lot of Labour voters will stay at home if Corbyn is leader, while others will switch direct to the Tories or to the LibDems.
I'd put that figure a bit higher in the Midlands, maybe 6,000+. There's much more of a tradition of straight switching from Labour --> Tory --> Labour there, rather than messing about with the LibDems.
Corbyn at the helm could see a reverse '97, with some WTF??? seats changing hands.
Yep, I agree. If Labour thought 2015 was bad in the Midlands, they ain't seen nothing yet. It will be utter carnage if Corbyn is still in charge.
Why?
Because he is repellant to voters in marginal seats. He activly dislikes aspiration, is anti-monarcy, anti-Trident, pro-unlimited immigration and attracts snarling, aggressive organisations on the hard left. He is everything the average voter in the Midlands finds unpalatable about Labour. And all this is before the Tories get stuck into him.
Writing from the industrial West Midlands, it is also because most sitting Labour MPs have built up significant personal votes and when the deselection process takes effect not only will those personal votes be lost but many will be actively hostile to the replacement Labour candidate as a consequence. So more apparently safe Labour seats could be in play than you think. And that's even before considering the possibility of a split and multiple candidates.
@Jonathan The Conservatives were rising in the polls before the Falklands. Labour were higher in the polls at the end of 1982 than at the beginning of that year.
The main impact of the Falklands War was to squash the Alliance (whose support halved in the calendar year of 1982), not Labour.
So, in short, to be as bad as 83. Labour needs a strong 3rd party challenge and a Tory leader with (at least the equaivalent of) a post war victory bounce.
Labour has got the 3rd party challenge in Scotland already. But UKIP and the LDs are weaker than the Alliance.
I doubt May will be popular come 2020, nothing like Thatcher in 83.
Yes, the Labour Party will retain a very large number of seats even on a very low voting share in the absence of a credible centre left alternative. Of course if there is a split of a significant part of the PLP then all bets are off.
Any Labour MP facing the Tories with less than a 5,000 majority should feel very concerned. A lot of Labour voters will stay at home if Corbyn is leader, while others will switch direct to the Tories or to the LibDems.
I'd put that figure a bit higher in the Midlands, maybe 6,000+. There's much more of a tradition of straight switching from Labour --> Tory --> Labour there, rather than messing about with the LibDems.
Corbyn at the helm could see a reverse '97, with some WTF??? seats changing hands.
Yep, I agree. If Labour thought 2015 was bad in the Midlands, they ain't seen nothing yet. It will be utter carnage if Corbyn is still in charge.
Why?
The Midlands is swinging very heavily away from Labour, politically.
Just look at the Leave vote there. Huge.
Outside of the West Midlands conurbation, Stoke, Leicester, and Nottingham, the Midlands is now very bad for Labour (and Stoke is starting to look shaky).
Inner Birmingham, Leicester and Nottingham - basically areas with the right demographics of high levels of students and diverse ethnicity - will probably be the only reliable areas for Labour in future.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
There was a class and educational divide, but not that big a one. 43% of professional people voted Leave as did 42% of graduates. Taking into account retirees who had professional jobs at a time when far fewer people went to university narrows the gap further.
The really big divide seems to have been geographical (which probably means attitudinal). Inner London, university cities, Scotland, the M3 and M4 corridors, all voted Remain, sometimes by huge margins. Provincial England and Wales voted Leave, sometimes by huge margins.
Though often the wealthiest, most educated parts of provincial England, Epsom, Oxford, Tunbridge Wells, Harrogate, voted Remain and some less wealthy university cities, Birmingham, Nottingham, Sheffield etc voted Leave
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
There was a class and educational divide, but not that big a one. 43% of professional people voted Leave as did 42% of graduates. Taking into account retirees who had professional jobs at a time when far fewer people went to university narrows the gap further.
The really big divide seems to have been geographical (which probably means attitudinal). Inner London, university cities, Scotland, the M3 and M4 corridors, all voted Remain, sometimes by huge margins. Provincial England and Wales voted Leave, sometimes by huge margins.
Though often the wealthiest, most educated parts of provincial England, Epsom, Oxford, Tunbridge Wells, Harrogate, voted Remain and some less wealthy university cities, Birmingham, Nottingham, Sheffield etc voted Leave
I should have said university *dominated* cities. I'd imagine that in Sheffield, Hallam voted massively for Remain, but was outvoted by working class and semi-rural Leave districts.
Another thing that struck me at the Luton count was the way that entire polling districts seemed to be voting 75-80% one way or the other.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
There was a class and educational divide, but not that big a one. 43% of professional people voted Leave as did 42% of graduates. Taking into account retirees who had professional jobs at a time when far fewer people went to university narrows the gap further.
The really big divide seems to have been geographical (which probably means attitudinal). Inner London, university cities, Scotland, the M3 and M4 corridors, all voted Remain, sometimes by huge margins. Provincial England and Wales voted Leave, sometimes by huge margins.
Though often the wealthiest, most educated parts of provincial England, Epsom, Oxford, Tunbridge Wells, Harrogate, voted Remain and some less wealthy university cities, Birmingham, Nottingham, Sheffield etc voted Leave
I should have said university *dominated* cities. I'd imagine that in Sheffield, Hallam voted massively for Remain, but was outvoted by working class and semi-rural Leave districts.
Trump's white working class support overlaps strongly with the voters who most heavily backed Leave and opposition to NAFTA drives many of them too. Boris withdrew from the leadership campaign himself and was still more popular with voters as a whole than Tory MPs when he withdrew. Yet it was Tory MPs he needed to woo before he could get his leadership bid off the ground. Trump is not trying to win Republican Congressmen to become Speaker of the House or Senate Majority leader otherwise he would have no chance
Trump needs to woo traditional republicans who support free trade and capitalism. His failure to do that is why he's losing. He has been unable to reach across the left right divide in the same way leave did while also pissing off traditional republicans. Trump is a busted flush, even if he became disciplined and stayed on message to attack Hillary's record he probably wouldn't win. He's damaged goods, beyond rescue. I say this as someone who thought a Trump presidency might be interesting and wouldn't have been as bothered by it as most people. I don't see any path for him to victory in a nation that has an electoral college. He needs to overturn too many safe blue states and hold too many toss ups, without losing places like Arizona and even Texas which have high Hispanic populations.
Leave did not win by appealing to traditional conservatives who backed free trade and capitalism, both the Leave campaign and Trump in the primaries won by appealing to white working class voters concerned about immigration primarily and the fact they were being ignored by the establishment. Trump added some protectionism too which is also evident on the Leave side with those opposed to UK membership of the single market
Wrong. Leave.EU and Niger Farage wanted to concentrate solely on the WWC anti immigrant vote and that would have been a losing strategy. Vote Leave concentrated on winning that Vote AND free trade Conservatives etc too which got them up to 52%. With only the WWC they would have lost comprehensively.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
The converse of that is that 43% of ABs voted Leave. Without those votes Leave would have lost.
Martha Kelner Heptathlon starts in 20 minutes and this is inside the athletics stadium. Worst crowds I've seen all week. https://t.co/FRjq8jHm28
The Sydney, Beijing and London Olympics were superb games. – Poor attendance aside, Brazil it’s fair to say have struggled somewhat, to the point where I don’t think South America will host another for decades to come.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
There was a class and educational divide, but not that big a one. 43% of professional people voted Leave as did 42% of graduates. Taking into account retirees who had professional jobs at a time when far fewer people went to university narrows the gap further.
The really big divide seems to have been geographical (which probably means attitudinal). Inner London, university cities, Scotland, the M3 and M4 corridors, all voted Remain, sometimes by huge margins. Provincial England and Wales voted Leave, sometimes by huge margins.
Though often the wealthiest, most educated parts of provincial England, Epsom, Oxford, Tunbridge Wells, Harrogate, voted Remain and some less wealthy university cities, Birmingham, Nottingham, Sheffield etc voted Leave
And you persist in wishing to make this black and white.
One of the most frustrating aspects of your posting style is the way you relentlessly and pedantically persist with defending your original point from whatever angle you can, rather than engage with the counter argument.
Wouldn't it be easier if we just took over the union?
You could do that, but it would not solve the problem. The management of Southern trains is monumentally abysmal. They can't run the railway even in good times. Victoria descends into chaos if it rains.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
There was a class and educational divide, but not that big a one. 43% of professional people voted Leave as did 42% of graduates. Taking into account retirees who had professional jobs at a time when far fewer people went to university narrows the gap further.
The really big divide seems to have been geographical (which probably means attitudinal). Inner London, university cities, Scotland, the M3 and M4 corridors, all voted Remain, sometimes by huge margins. Provincial England and Wales voted Leave, sometimes by huge margins.
Though often the wealthiest, most educated parts of provincial England, Epsom, Oxford, Tunbridge Wells, Harrogate, voted Remain and some less wealthy university cities, Birmingham, Nottingham, Sheffield etc voted Leave
And you persist in wishing to make this black and white.
One of the most frustrating aspects of your posting style is the way you relentlessly and pedantically persist with defending your original point from whatever angle you can, rather than engage with the counter argument.
Well if the counter argument misses the key point there is not really much alternative
Martha Kelner Heptathlon starts in 20 minutes and this is inside the athletics stadium. Worst crowds I've seen all week. https://t.co/FRjq8jHm28
The Sydney, Beijing and London Olympics were superb games. – Poor attendance aside, Brazil it’s fair to say have struggled somewhat, to the point where I don’t think South America will host another for decades to come.
Poor ticket sales - I gather even big events are still unsold, venues requiring two buses and a mile walk to get to, general street thuggery, very slow security checks putting off corp guests from taking their seats/poor locals lining up for free ones, green pools, no catering in some venues so ticket holders leaving stadia and not returning...
Martha Kelner Heptathlon starts in 20 minutes and this is inside the athletics stadium. Worst crowds I've seen all week. https://t.co/FRjq8jHm28
The Sydney, Beijing and London Olympics were superb games. – Poor attendance aside, Brazil it’s fair to say have struggled somewhat, to the point where I don’t think South America will host another for decades to come.
Poor ticket sales - I gather even big events are still unsold, venues requiring two buses and a mile walk to get to, general street thuggery, very slow security checks putting off corp guests from taking their seats/poor locals lining up for free ones, green pools, no catering in some venues so ticket holders leaving stadia and not returning...
Trump's white working class support overlaps strongly with the voters who most heavily backed Leave and opposition to NAFTA drives many of them too. Boris withdrew from the leadership campaign himself and was still more popular with voters as a whole than Tory MPs when he withdrew. Yet it was Tory MPs he needed to woo before he could get his leadership bid off the ground. Trump is not trying to win Republican Congressmen to become Speaker of the House or Senate Majority leader otherwise he would have no chance
Trump needs to woo traditional republicans who support free trade and capitalism. His failure to do that is why he's losing. He has been unable to reach across the left right divide in the same way leave did while also pis
Leave did not win by appealing to traditional conservatives who backed free trade and capitalism, both the Leave campaign and Trump in the primaries won by appealing to white working class voters concerned about immigration primarily and the fact they were being ignored by the establishment. Trump added some protectionism too which is also evident on the Leave side with those opposed to UK membership of the single market
Wrong. Leave.EU and Niger Farage wanted to concentrate solely on the WWC anti immigrant vote and that would have been a losing strategy. Vote Leave concentrated on winning that Vote AND free trade Conservatives etc too which got them up to 52%. With only the WWC they would have lost comprehensively.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
The converse of that is that 43% of ABs voted Leave. Without those votes Leave would have lost.
You could equally argue had Remain done better with white working class voters it would have won, of course some white working class voters voted Remain and some upper middle class voters Leave but by a 14% margin the upper middle class voted Remain and the white working class voted Leave by an even larger margin
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
Trump actually almost tied Hillary with white college graduates after the GOP convention, if he moves back up in the polls he will likely make inroads again there too
Republicans are usually well ahead amongst white college graduates, so only tieing is a terrible number for Trump. You clearly do not understand the demographics of the US electorate.
Martha Kelner Heptathlon starts in 20 minutes and this is inside the athletics stadium. Worst crowds I've seen all week. https://t.co/FRjq8jHm28
The Sydney, Beijing and London Olympics were superb games. – Poor attendance aside, Brazil it’s fair to say have struggled somewhat, to the point where I don’t think South America will host another for decades to come.
Poor ticket sales - I gather even big events are still unsold, venues requiring two buses and a mile walk to get to, general street thuggery, very slow security checks putting off corp guests from taking their seats/poor locals lining up for free ones, green pools, no catering in some venues so ticket holders leaving stadia and not returning...
It also rains more than it did in London.
Didn't they run out of money for roofs on some? Paying for Olympics and WC is asking far too much.
Martha Kelner Heptathlon starts in 20 minutes and this is inside the athletics stadium. Worst crowds I've seen all week. https://t.co/FRjq8jHm28
The Sydney, Beijing and London Olympics were superb games. – Poor attendance aside, Brazil it’s fair to say have struggled somewhat, to the point where I don’t think South America will host another for decades to come.
Poor ticket sales - I gather even big events are still unsold, venues requiring two buses and a mile walk to get to, general street thuggery, very slow security checks putting off corp guests from taking their seats/poor locals lining up for free ones, green pools, no catering in some venues so ticket holders leaving stadia and not returning...
When Usain Bolt is going on Twitter to encourage ticket sales for the 100m final, a week before the event, they've clearly got a serious problem.
57% of ABs voted Remain i.e. the social class most supportive of free trade and immigration, some did vote Leave but it was the anti free trade, anti immigration white working class and lower middle-class who won it for BREXIT
Which means 43% of ABs voted to leave. How can you not understand that it was a coalition of voters that won the leave vote rather than one narrow section or other. Trump's appeal to America's equivalent of AB leavers is very, very poor and that's why he's going to lose. Just on here look at the over represented AB leavers (myself, Robert, Casino, Charles etc...) not a single one would vote for Trump if we were American, yet we all voted to leave and are all fairly comfortable with immigration to varying degrees. Trump has failed to build a winning coalition of voters and he is running out of time to do it.
Trump actually almost tied Hillary with white college graduates after the GOP convention, if he moves back up in the polls he will likely make inroads again there too
Republicans are usually well ahead amongst white college graduates, so only tieing is a terrible number for Trump. You clearly do not understand the demographics of the US electorate.
They are not if you include postgraduates (as most polling usually does, even if exit polls split them)
On ticket sales, it might surprise some to hear that a friend of mine turned up to Wembley for the semi-final of the 1966 World Cup - and bought a ticket on the day.
However, he still remains bitter that his friend went along to the box office on the day of the final - and got to buy a ticket for England v Germany...
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn4IpyVViw4
Who is excellent at explaining his satire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcS7i4wn01o
The internet remembers :-)
With the benefit of hindsight, yes it was.
Forgive me if I'm wrong but you follow cycling don't you? What do you think about our chances, each team looked incredibly good last night, so maybe we are going to be much better than was feared earlier this year?
Stuart Rose was just an honest competent business man.
http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2016/08/trump-nj-headquarters-closed-not-long-after-it-opened-104651
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/12/winter-is-coming-warns-the-solar-physicist-the-alarmists-tried-to-silence/
OLYMPIC MEDALS TABLE (total medals):
1. Great Britain and her Former Colonies: 219
2. China: 30
3. Japan: 22
4. Korea
5. Hungary
http://www.270towin.com/maps/0bDo9
Heptathlon starts in 20 minutes and this is inside the athletics stadium. Worst crowds I've seen all week. https://t.co/FRjq8jHm28
The really big divide seems to have been geographical (which probably means attitudinal). Inner London, university cities, Scotland, the M3 and M4 corridors, all voted Remain, sometimes by huge margins. Provincial England and Wales voted Leave, sometimes by huge margins.
Take the Ryder Cup. The addition of commonwealth players to help GB& Ireland, as opposed to Europeans, was never suggested.
Another thing that struck me at the Luton count was the way that entire polling districts seemed to be voting 75-80% one way or the other.
Wouldn't it be easier if we just took over the union?
CNN: FBI advocated investigating possible criminal conduct by Clinton Foundation; DoJ refused https://t.co/7N9t64eMl0 #ClintonFoundation
One of the most frustrating aspects of your posting style is the way you relentlessly and pedantically persist with defending your original point from whatever angle you can, rather than engage with the counter argument.
In fact a horse would be preferable.
However, he still remains bitter that his friend went along to the box office on the day of the final - and got to buy a ticket for England v Germany...
new thread