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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just focusing on states where Hillary Clinton has 10%+ poll leads she’s only 7 seats short in the electoral college

With so much going on in the Labour party battle the fight for the White House has got sidelined. Things have moved very sharply away from Trump since the conventions and the challenge he now faces is enormous.

Read the full story here

foxinsoxuk

First!

Looks like it is going to be a Clinton landslide.

weejonnie

Trump wins the land, Clinton the people.

logical_song

More than 70 Republicans have signed a letter to the party's National Committee head urging him to stop helping Donald Trump's campaign.
They said Mr Trump's "divisiveness" and "incompetence" risked drowning the party in November's election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37055398

david_herdson

Second. Like my intention to write this article (or something along these lines).

Edit: Pah - and didn't even make that

619

Trump is a deranged racist sociopath. And isnt doing a great job hiding it. The fact he has a 20-25% is scary!

david_herdson

So much for the Rust Belt strategy.

foxinsoxuk

I think Clinton will do better in the South than any Democrat since the last Clinton.

Where is the best state by state betting?

JackW

National - Princeton SRAI

Clinton 45 .. Trump 39

https://www.psrai.com/pdf/psrai_pr081016.pdf

ToryJim

That Clinton's firewall is up at 263 is hugely significant. Especially as she is probably going to win a fair few of the toss ups. Obviously lots can happen between now and November but it's getting harder and harder to see a path for Trump.

Incidentally welcome Mr 619!!

kle4

There are many reasons I as an outsider find trump off putting to say the least, though I try to accept millions still line what he's selling. Nevertheless, that Hilary Clinton, a poor candidate in many ways, might end up with a massive win as a result, is a little hilarious. On her own merits she doesn't deserve that, but there you go. Trump has surprised all along the way.

david_herdson

foxinsoxuk said:

I think Clinton will do better in the South than any Democrat since the last Clinton.

Where is the best state by state betting?

It's far from impossible that she could win more ECVs than any Democrat since Johnson, which is absurd given her favourability polling.

619

ToryJim said:

That Clinton's firewall is up at 263 is hugely significant. Especially as she is probably going to win a fair few of the toss ups. Obviously lots can happen between now and November but it's getting harder and harder to see a path for Trump.

Incidentally welcome Mr 619!!

thanks!

turns out alienating all minorities, women and educated voters while stoking up racism and coming across like a crazy person who wants to use a nuclear bomb isnt necessarily a winning strategy

he also has no ground game and no tv ads running. wouldnt surprise me if things get a lot worse for him

JackW

Mike - The last Minnesota poll was back in April - Clinton +13 - There is no realistic prospect of Trump taking the state. Add +10 EV to your 263 and Clinton crosses the line.

kle4

Casino_Royale said:

Blue_rog said:

From the Telegraph

Sir Eric’s report makes a series of recommendations to Theresa May, the Prime Minister, and calls for people to require identification when they are voting and for police cordons around polling stations to prevent intimidation.

He also calls for officials at polling stations to be banned from speaking any language other than English and says that it should be made a criminal offense to attempt to influence someone to vote for a candidate because of their religion.

Finally!

It's somehow a bit sad not to do it on trust and tradition by just giving your name and address, but it's hard to disagree with that, particularly showing some ID.

I assume it will be criticised on the grounds of discriminating against, I'm guessing, younger and poorer people?

It would be a shame, but it is amazing how much the system relies on the honours system.

PlatoSaid

I see Diane Abbott is trending on Twitter

She's on Today prog again...

AlastairMeeks

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

HYUFD

I think it is fair to say the Labour leadership race has only been overshadowing Trump v Clinton in the Labour Party itself and PB headers!

619

kle4 said:

There are many reasons I as an outsider find trump off putting to say the least, though I try to accept millions still line what he's selling. Nevertheless, that Hilary Clinton, a poor candidate in many ways, might end up with a massive win as a result, is a little hilarious. On her own merits she doesn't deserve that, but there you go. Trump has surprised all along the way.

sort off: his victories in the primaries were borne out by the polling. it was a surprise because of people looking at the cross tabbing and assuming the republicans would come to their senses! for hom to be winning now, those same polls have to be wrong...

PlatoSaid

Diane Abbott: "Labour MPs every hour on the hour are saying Jeremy is rubbish, of course that’s driving down our polling."

ToryJim

david_herdson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I think Clinton will do better in the South than any Democrat since the last Clinton.

Where is the best state by state betting?

It's far from impossible that she could win more ECVs than any Democrat since Johnson, which is absurd given her favourability polling.

You beat the opponent they give you! Chirac didn't deserve an 80:20 blow out in 2002 but there you go.

JackW

My current (although not ARSE4US) all states called projection is Clinton 359/179 :

http://www.270towin.com/

ToryJim

PlatoSaid said:

Diane Abbott: "Labour MPs every hour on the hour are saying Jeremy is rubbish, of course that’s driving down our polling."

The fact they are correct is what's driving down polling, not them mentioning it.

ydoethur

Completely OT but very funny:

http://m.thedailymash.co.uk/features/i-love-jeremy-but-i-also-want-to-lock-him-in-a-box-forever-20160811112113

HYUFD

The challenge for Trump is to win all the beige states listed above excluding Minnesota plus the red states and one of Pennsylvania or NH. Adding Minnesota would win it for him too but I do not see Minnesota as a realistic target for him as he did not even win it in the primaries and it has not voted GOP since 1972 (it is only lack of recent polling there which makes it beige). With Clinton up by over 7% nationally it is hardly surprising she now has a clear EC lead, if things start to tighten nationally, especially post debates, the EC map will be closer too

Morris_Dancer

Chairman Corbyn's supremacy in all regards is well-known. Those who say otherwise are propagandists for the capitalist traitors of the Conservative Party, whose foul agents, yes, false Comrade Smith, I mean you!, have infiltrated the ranks of the People's Front of Islington.

Once these lickspittle pigdogs have been crushed by the will of the Party's wise and enlightened membership, Chairman Corbyn shall remake the Party in his own image and lead it to glorious victory!

[On an unrelated note, The Force Awakens has a new trailer and looks rather good].

PlatoSaid

ydoethur said:

Completely OT but very funny:

http://m.thedailymash.co.uk/features/i-love-jeremy-but-i-also-want-to-lock-him-in-a-box-forever-20160811112113

I saw a great little joke on Twitter yesterday about the difference between Trotskyists and Trotskyites 'one grows up from the floor, the other hangs down from the ceiling.'

Makes about as much sense as anything.

MitchellStirling

I wanted to flag a sports bet that I think is outstanding value. After last night's tremendous performance from Men's Team Sprint in the Velodrome and the commentary from Sir Chirs Hoy as a pundit on BBC it seems that British Cycling may be on course to use their London 2012 play book whereby they peak at the Olympics having underperformed at World Championships between. Indeed, the last time they won Men's Team Sprint was in 2012 and as a result they were priced at 14/1 this time yesterday.

As a result Jason Kenny has come in to 10/11 from 3/1 in Men's Sprint and is now joint favourite at 4/1 in the Men's Keirin. This puts him at a reasonable shout of getting to Sir Chris Hoy's six gold medal haul over the next few days and as a result I would recommend the 25/1 available at William Hill for Sports Personality Of The Year. We know how often a cyclist has won of late, I don't see Froome as a potential winner with 'only' a Tour de France and a bronze. Murray would need to win Olympics and US Open to really be as hot a favourite as is right now in my view. Jess Ennis-Hill is not favourite for the Heptathlon and with all that he has achieved Mo Farah has inexplicably never finished in the top 3.

HYUFD

Morris_Dancer said:

Chairman Corbyn's supremacy in all regards is well-known. Those who say otherwise are propagandists for the capitalist traitors of the Conservative Party, whose foul agents, yes, false Comrade Smith, I mean you!, have infiltrated the ranks of the People's Front of Islington.

Once these lickspittle pigdogs have been crushed by the will of the Party's wise and enlightened membership, Chairman Corbyn shall remake the Party in his own image and lead it to glorious victory!

[On an unrelated note, The Force Awakens has a new trailer and looks rather good].

Can't be worse than most of the blockbusters this summer which have been dire

foxinsoxuk

david_herdson said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I think Clinton will do better in the South than any Democrat since the last Clinton.

Where is the best state by state betting?

It's far from impossible that she could win more ECVs than any Democrat since Johnson, which is absurd given her favourability polling.

I see Shadsy has a market for every state. I have backed a few "Con take Bootle" type wins for Hillary.

PlatoSaid

I saw overnight that Mr Phelps has now won 22 Golds and qualified for the 100m final just 30 mins later! I'm amazed no one has tested him for dolphin genes.

foxinsoxuk

JackW said:

My current (although not ARSE4US) all states called projection is Clinton 359/179 :

http://www.270towin.com/

Sounds about right to me, though I have a few more in Blue.

Is there to be an official ARSE 4 US?

RobD

PlatoSaid said:

I saw overnight that Mr Phelps has now won 22 Golds and qualified for the 100m final just 30 mins later! I'm amazed no one has tested him for dolphin genes.

Just goes to show there are too many swimming events...

Morris_Dancer

Mr. HYUFD, I'm really not much of a cinema-goer (I did see the seventh Star Wars film but between that and the film I saw beforehand, the cinema had changed the prices, the doors by which you leave, the carpets, the seats and the sound system). It does appear, by trailer, anyway, miles better than the only other two films for which I can recall recent trailers [Ghostbusters and Suicide Squad].

HYUFD

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead. Trump needs to hammer Hillary as the same old corrupt establishment, focus relentlessly on immigration and NAFTA in the rustbelt and win the debates and also hope for another Clinton scandal. It is unlikely all that will happen but not impossible

kle4

PlatoSaid said:

Diane Abbott: "Labour MPs every hour on the hour are saying Jeremy is rubbish, of course that’s driving down our polling."

And why do you think they keep saying it, Diane? Oh that's right, it's because they are worried he is going to win the GE, and they wouldn't like that, for some reason.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. D, aye, it's unfair to have that sort of pissing contest.

A really good hammer-thrower has one event. A really good sprinter has two or three. A really good cyclist has a few. A really good swimmer has bloody loads.

FrancisUrquhart

PlatoSaid said:

I saw overnight that Mr Phelps has now won 22 Golds and qualified for the 100m final just 30 mins later! I'm amazed no one has tested him for dolphin genes.

What is incredible about Phelps is that he achieved all this & doesn't exactly live how can we put it the life of a monk (which many need to do to be an Olympian). Booze, women, partying etc & he still nobody on the planet can keep with him.

kle4

RobD said:

PlatoSaid said:

I saw overnight that Mr Phelps has now won 22 Golds and qualified for the 100m final just 30 mins later! I'm amazed no one has tested him for dolphin genes.

Just goes to show there are too many swimming events...

In fairness that is in fact true, although he's still an amazing athlete, taking nothing away from his achievements.

MaxPB

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

Agreed, but that lack of discipline also proves he would be a fairly poor POTUS. Beating Clinton isn't that difficult, she has enough negatives and enough easy to attack issues, Trump would rather go off on some rant rather than concentrate on those.

PlatoSaid

I see Mandy is finally saying what we all knew

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10055613/Labour-sent-out-search-parties-for-immigrants-Lord-Mandelson-admits.html

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, aye, it's unfair to have that sort of pissing contest.

A really good hammer-thrower has one event. A really good sprinter has two or three. A really good cyclist has a few. A really good swimmer has bloody loads.

I think there should be either a cull of swimming events, or a cap on the number you can compete for given their similarities.

Essexit

If the Republican establishment is going to grow a pair and try to replace Trump, let's hope they're better at it than the PLP.

MaxPB

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead. Trump needs to hammer Hillary as the same old corrupt establishment, focus relentlessly on immigration and NAFTA in the rustbelt and win the debates and also hope for another Clinton scandal. It is unlikely all that will happen but not impossible

As @AlastairMeeks points out, he won't. Trump is incapable of staying on message, he lacks the discipline necessary to win.

MarqueeMark

PlatoSaid said:

Diane Abbott: "Labour MPs every hour on the hour are saying Jeremy is rubbish, of course that’s driving down our polling."

Rather than the pips, it would be funny if they swapped it for her phrase "Jeremy is rubbish"....

JackW

MitchellStirling said:

I wanted to flag a sports bet that I think is outstanding value. After last night's tremendous performance from Men's Team Sprint in the Velodrome and the commentary from Sir Chirs Hoy as a pundit on BBC it seems that British Cycling may be on course to use their London 2012 play book whereby they peak at the Olympics having underperformed at World Championships between. Indeed, the last time they won Men's Team Sprint was in 2012 and as a result they were priced at 14/1 this time yesterday.

As a result Jason Kenny has come in to 10/11 from 3/1 in Men's Sprint and is now joint favourite at 4/1 in the Men's Keirin. This puts him at a reasonable shout of getting to Sir Chris Hoy's six gold medal haul over the next few days and as a result I would recommend the 25/1 available at William Hill for Sports Personality Of The Year. We know how often a cyclist has won of late, I don't see Froome as a potential winner with 'only' a Tour de France and a bronze. Murray would need to win Olympics and US Open to really be as hot a favourite as is right now in my view. Jess Ennis-Hill is not favourite for the Heptathlon and with all that he has achieved Mo Farah has inexplicably never finished in the top 3.

Some good points there.

Kenny suffers from his low profile but the 25/1 is a good trading bet. If Mo does the double again he'll shorten considerably. However Murray will be favourite again if at the end of the year he has picked up Wimbledon, US Open, 2 more Olympic golds and the Davis Cup again.

HYUFD

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. HYUFD, I'm really not much of a cinema-goer (I did see the seventh Star Wars film but between that and the film I saw beforehand, the cinema had changed the prices, the doors by which you leave, the carpets, the seats and the sound system). It does appear, by trailer, anyway, miles better than the only other two films for which I can recall recent trailers [Ghostbusters and Suicide Squad].

Indeed although not all Pbers liked it Star Wars had great reviews and box office as did other blockbusters last year like Jurassic Park. This year the likes of Suicide Squad, Tarzan, Independence Day and Batman v Superman have been generally poorly received and often underperformed. Ghostbusters does not look that great either though at least has some ironic humour. Star Trek is the only half decent summer blockbuster it seems so hoping for more from Star Wars again

rottenborough

PlatoSaid said:

I see Diane Abbott is trending on Twitter

She's on Today prog again...

A towering giant of British post-war politics passes comment to a grateful nation.

Alistair

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead

Of the first 10 polls at the start of the official campaigning period 6 had Remain leads, 4 had Leave leads.

619

MaxPB said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

Agreed, but that lack of discipline also proves he would be a fairly poor POTUS. Beating Clinton isn't that difficult, she has enough negatives and enough easy to attack issues, Trump would rather go off on some rant rather than concentrate on those.

its worse than that: the democrats point at their convention was that he is irrational and not to be trusted with the nuclear codes. and trump then went on tl prove their point for them!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. D, and ban those stupid bloody walking events.

Lots of rowing from 12.30pm, whether permitting, of course.

RobD

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead

Of the first 10 polls at the start of the official campaigning period 6 had Remain leads, 4 had Leave leads.

Poor populus.. 10 point remain lead on the eve of voting... mustn't laugh...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

JackW

foxinsoxuk said:

Is there to be an official ARSE 4 US?

I'm in negotiations with Mrs JackW that make the BREXIT talks seem a cakewalk. It's called "Operation Shoe-in" .... No more operations for me, lots more shoes in Mrs JackW's dressing room !! ....

Alistair

JackW said:

MitchellStirling said:

I wanted to flag a sports bet that I think is outstanding value. After last night's tremendous performance from Men's Team Sprint in the Velodrome and the commentary from Sir Chirs Hoy as a pundit on BBC it seems that British Cycling may be on course to use their London 2012 play book whereby they peak at the Olympics having underperformed at World Championships between. Indeed, the last time they won Men's Team Sprint was in 2012 and as a result they were priced at 14/1 this time yesterday.

As a result Jason Kenny has come in to 10/11 from 3/1 in Men's Sprint and is now joint favourite at 4/1 in the Men's Keirin. This puts him at a reasonable shout of getting to Sir Chris Hoy's six gold medal haul over the next few days and as a result I would recommend the 25/1 available at William Hill for Sports Personality Of The Year. We know how often a cyclist has won of late, I don't see Froome as a potential winner with 'only' a Tour de France and a bronze. Murray would need to win Olympics and US Open to really be as hot a favourite as is right now in my view. Jess Ennis-Hill is not favourite for the Heptathlon and with all that he has achieved Mo Farah has inexplicably never finished in the top 3.

Some good points there.

Kenny suffers from his low profile but the 25/1 is a good trading bet. If Mo does the double again he'll shorten considerably. However Murray will be favourite again if at the end of the year he has picked up Wimbledon, US Open, 2 more Olympic golds and the Davis Cup again.

Mo Farah could win the 5000m the 10000m the 400m, the Javelin and rescue a kitten from a tree and still wouldn't get SPOTY.

Yes I am miffed my E/W bet on him did not place and I think badly of the British public for their lack of discernment.

Alistair

Essexit said:

If the Republican establishment is going to grow a pair and try to replace Trump, let's hope they're better at it than the PLP.

I hear they will look to replace him starting Nov 9th.

DavidL

PlatoSaid said:

Diane Abbott: "Labour MPs every hour on the hour are saying Jeremy is rubbish, of course that’s driving down our polling."

If only that were true. They have been far too quiet.

PlatoSaid

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, aye, it's unfair to have that sort of pissing contest.

A really good hammer-thrower has one event. A really good sprinter has two or three. A really good cyclist has a few. A really good swimmer has bloody loads.

I think there should be either a cull of swimming events, or a cap on the number you can compete for given their similarities.

How many are there that a single swimmer could win at a single Olympics?

100m
200m
4x100m
4x200m
Freestyle 100m/200m?

There are so many that I've no idea who's winning what. I did note that the first Afro-American female has won a swimming gold - in a tie with a Canadian.

I was really surprised by that. I know black athletes are meant to be socially disadvantaged by a lack of interest in learning to swim/fewer facilities as a consequence. I wondered if there was a physiological aspect as well. China seems to do very well in swimming IIRC.

PlatoSaid

Sky has the oddest looking guest right now - jam jar thick black rimmed specs, Norman Wisdom small suit, Brylcreme hair - he's a tattoo art historian.

BannedInParis

PlatoSaid said:

Sky has the oddest looking guest right now - jam jar thick black rimmed specs, Norman Wisdom small suit, Brylcreme hair - he's a tattoo art historian.

Matt Lodder, by any chance?

[Deleted User]

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, and ban those stupid bloody walking events.

Lots of rowing from 12.30pm, whether permitting, of course.

...and bring in jousting! Serious, dangerous, need full body shiny metal armour, might knock yer block off jousting.

Alistair

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, aye, it's unfair to have that sort of pissing contest.

A really good hammer-thrower has one event. A really good sprinter has two or three. A really good cyclist has a few. A really good swimmer has bloody loads.

I think there should be either a cull of swimming events, or a cap on the number you can compete for given their similarities.

I'm happy for there to be loads of different distances but they should all be freestyle, maybe back stroke as well. The idea of doing a bunch of strokes that are slower then optimal is faintly ludicrous.

Dromedary

The BBC are pushing the line that the bombs that exploded across Thailand, in bar and shopping districts, killing at least four people, are NOT "terrorism".

Well what the hell are they, then? Imagine if the bombs had been in Tel Aviv.

Doubtless some morons who listen to the BBC will not notice anything strange about such an "analysis", and they may even be willing to respond patronisingly to those who do, to compensate for their own submissiveness to what they hear from above in the opinion chain. The line nowadays is that "terrorism" is a subset of Islam, so nothing outside of Islam can be "terrorism". Never mind that civilians are being blown to bits in shops and bars. The question is whether the bombers believe in one God and that Mohammed was his greatest and last prophet. And if the security and media services say they don't, then let's not hear you whinge about "terrorism" if your civilian family members were blown to bits by a bomb when they went to the shops, okay? Because the BBC won't be encouraging any such thoughts. It's LOCAL; it's not TERRORISM - got it? And you've ALWAYS known that that typology is correct. No other typology has ever existed. You're a delinquent if you even ask whether it has. So don't encourage anyone to step out of line and unbook their sex holiday.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Patrick, bringing jousting to the Olympics is just common sense.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Dromedary, then what is the cause?

PlatoSaid

BannedInParis said:

PlatoSaid said:

Sky has the oddest looking guest right now - jam jar thick black rimmed specs, Norman Wisdom small suit, Brylcreme hair - he's a tattoo art historian.

Matt Lodder, by any chance?

That's him! He's a very large flower neck tattoo as well. And a silk pocket hanky spilling out. He's got that hunched look down to a tee. It really sets off the rounded stiff collar and tight rumpled suit look.

GIN1138

I think we might have finally found an animal to compete with @JackW longevity

The Greenland shark thats 400 years old!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37047168

RobD

GIN1138 said:

I think we might have finally found an animal to compete with @JackW longevity

The Greenland shark thats 400 years old!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37047168

'kin hell.. that one female may have been around when Elizabeth I was on the throne.

Edit:

"Greenland sharks won't reach sexual maturity until they're 150"

Sounds like our Jack... titters

PlatoSaid

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Patrick, bringing jousting to the Olympics is just common sense.

Edited extra bit: Mr. Dromedary, then what is the cause?

Had a most entertaining Twitter chat yesterday about making the Modern Pentathlon more of a raffle discipline where competitors don't know what they'll be doing until they turn up. And definitely include rifle shooting from horseback as one of them

OldKingCole

GIN1138 said:

I think we might have finally found an animal to compete with @JackW longevity

The Greenland shark thats 400 years old!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37047168

Didn’t they kill it, thjough, to determine it’s age? Like the Icelandic clam!

Animal_pb

Morris_Dancer said:

Chairman Corbyn's supremacy in all regards is well-known. Those who say otherwise are propagandists for the capitalist traitors of the Conservative Party, whose foul agents, yes, false Comrade Smith, I mean you!, have infiltrated the ranks of the People's Front of Islington.

Once these lickspittle pigdogs have been crushed by the will of the Party's wise and enlightened membership, Chairman Corbyn shall remake the Party in his own image and lead it to glorious victory!

[On an unrelated note, The Force Awakens has a new trailer and looks rather good].

...Rogue One.

RobD

OldKingCole said:

GIN1138 said:

I think we might have finally found an animal to compete with @JackW longevity

The Greenland shark thats 400 years old!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37047168

Didn’t they kill it, thjough, to determine it’s age? Like the Icelandic clam!

Apparently they were ones caught by accident by trawlers and the like.

OldKingCole

Dromedary said:

The BBC are pushing the line that the bombs that exploded across Thailand, in bar and shopping districts, killing at least four people, are NOT "terrorism".

Well what the hell are they, then? Imagine if the bombs had been in Tel Aviv.

Doubtless some morons who listen to the BBC will not notice anything strange about such an "analysis", and they may even be willing to respond patronisingly to those who do, to compensate for their own submissiveness to what they hear from above in the opinion chain. The line nowadays is that "terrorism" is a subset of Islam, so nothing outside of Islam can be "terrorism". Never mind that civilians are being blown to bits in shops and bars. The question is whether the bombers believe in one God and that Mohammed was his greatest and last prophet. And if the security and media services say they don't, then let's not hear you whinge about "terrorism" if your civilian family members were blown to bits by a bomb when they went to the shops, okay? Because the BBC won't be encouraging any such thoughts. It's LOCAL; it's not TERRORISM - got it? And you've ALWAYS known that that typology is correct. No other typology has ever existed. You're a delinquent if you even ask whether it has. So don't encourage anyone to step out of line and unbook their sex holiday.

There is a serious issue in Thailand around the provinces bordering on Malaysia, where many of he ihabitants would prefer to be Malaysian. Yes, they are Muslim, but their terrorism ..... of course it is ..... is nothing to do with the fact of their faith; it’s about national identity.

[Deleted User]

I would also like to see a 'Pursuit' race created in athletics.

We are a running animal. Sport is a reflection of natural physical exertions. But we rarely need to run 10k or sprint for 100m then stop. In nature we generally run because we are chasing or being chased by something else. You must go fast from the get go or you'll be caught (and become lunch). But you can't stop - or you'll be caught. You need both speed and stamina to stay ahead. You can never pace yourself but must go as fast as you can all the time. It's like the evolutionary arms race between cheetahs and gazelles.

You could have two runners with one starting, say, 5m ahead of the other. From the gun the rear one has to touch the front one to win. No touch inside 4mins and the front runner wins. That'd be a lot more exciting than a bloody 10k!

MaxPB

OldKingCole said:

Dromedary said:

The BBC are pushing the line that the bombs that exploded across Thailand, in bar and shopping districts, killing at least four people, are NOT "terrorism".

Well what the hell are they, then? Imagine if the bombs had been in Tel Aviv.

Doubtless some morons who listen to the BBC will not notice anything strange about such an "analysis", and they may even be willing to respond patronisingly to those who do, to compensate for their own submissiveness to what they hear from above in the opinion chain. The line nowadays is that "terrorism" is a subset of Islam, so nothing outside of Islam can be "terrorism". Never mind that civilians are being blown to bits in shops and bars. The question is whether the bombers believe in one God and that Mohammed was his greatest and last prophet. And if the security and media services say they don't, then let's not hear you whinge about "terrorism" if your civilian family members were blown to bits by a bomb when they went to the shops, okay? Because the BBC won't be encouraging any such thoughts. It's LOCAL; it's not TERRORISM - got it? And you've ALWAYS known that that typology is correct. No other typology has ever existed. You're a delinquent if you even ask whether it has. So don't encourage anyone to step out of line and unbook their sex holiday.

There is a serious issue in Thailand around the provinces bordering on Malaysia, where many of he ihabitants would prefer to be Malaysian. Yes, they are Muslim, but their terrorism ..... of course it is ..... is nothing to do with the fact of their faith; it’s about national identity.

Hmm, as I understand it they are separatists who want an independent Muslim state. I don't think they want to join with Malaysia.

HYUFD

Alistair said:

Essexit said:

If the Republican establishment is going to grow a pair and try to replace Trump, let's hope they're better at it than the PLP.

I hear they will look to replace him starting Nov 9th.

Unless Trump drops out as the official GOP nominee yes he cannot now be replaced

PlatoSaid

Most locals here are very pleased to see action taken re crowd protection.

If you're down this way over the next few days - it's a great spectacle.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3735242/Metal-concrete-barriers-erected-Eastbourne-advance-airshow-protect-crowds-terror-threats.html

Dromedary

Morris_Dancer said:

Edited extra bit: Mr. Dromedary, then what is the cause?

The planting of bombs or carrying out of other attacks with the main aim being to terrorise and murder civilians is always terrorism.

That is regardless of the aims of the perpetrators - regardless of whether they believe they are fighting for "Christian" Europe against "Eurabia"; in favour of an end-of-times "Islamic" caliphate; because their special-force commanders told them to do it; or for any other reason. I do not know enough about Thailand to have an opinion on the motivation of today's bombers.

HYUFD

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead. Trump needs to hammer Hillary as the same old corrupt establishment, focus relentlessly on immigration and NAFTA in the rustbelt and win the debates and also hope for another Clinton scandal. It is unlikely all that will happen but not impossible

As @AlastairMeeks points out, he won't. Trump is incapable of staying on message, he lacks the discipline necessary to win.

Boris led the Leave campaign and was also hardly disciplined

OldKingCole

MaxPB said:

OldKingCole said:

Dromedary said:

The BBC are pushing the line that the bombs that exploded across Thailand, in bar and shopping districts, killing at least four people, are NOT "terrorism".

Well what the hell are they, then? Imagine if the bombs had been in Tel Aviv.

Doubtless some morons who listen to the BBC will not notice anything strange about such an "analysis", and they may even be willing to respond patronisingly to those who do, to compensate for their own submissiveness to what they hear from above in the opinion chain. The line nowadays is that "terrorism" is a subset of Islam, so nothing outside of Islam can be "terrorism". Never mind that civilians are being blown to bits in shops and bars. The question is whether the bombers believe in one God and that Mohammed was his greatest and last prophet. And if the security and media services say they don't, then let's not hear you whinge about "terrorism" if your civilian family members were blown to bits by a bomb when they went to the shops, okay? Because the BBC won't be encouraging any such thoughts. It's LOCAL; it's not TERRORISM - got it? And you've ALWAYS known that that typology is correct. No other typology has ever existed. You're a delinquent if you even ask whether it has. So don't encourage anyone to step out of line and unbook their sex holiday.

There is a serious issue in Thailand around the provinces bordering on Malaysia, where many of he ihabitants would prefer to be Malaysian. Yes, they are Muslim, but their terrorism ..... of course it is ..... is nothing to do with the fact of their faith; it’s about national identity.

Hmm, as I understand it they are separatists who want an independent Muslim state. I don't think they want to join with Malaysia.

I think there are separatists of both sorts!. The problem was caused by the way “national” borders were defined; a combination of local feudal loyalties and how far the army could go before it met with severe resistance.

Edit; checked wikipedia, and I suspect you are much more correct than I was.

RobD

PlatoSaid said:

Most locals here are very pleased to see action taken re crowd protection.

If you're down this way over the next few days - it's a great spectacle.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3735242/Metal-concrete-barriers-erected-Eastbourne-advance-airshow-protect-crowds-terror-threats.html

You can see similar design features in modern buildings, with large concrete blocks/structures preventing vehicles from getting too close.

MaxPB

Another thing on the number of swimming events. It occurs to me that they won't reduce the number of events, what we need to do is have a Dave Brailsford of swimming who can take us to the top of the sport just like we did for road and track cycling. The Americans win a huge number of medals in the pool and it pads out their total every four years, if we can achieve in swimming what Brailsford achieved in the velodrome then we could fight for second in the final table.

MaxPB

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead. Trump needs to hammer Hillary as the same old corrupt establishment, focus relentlessly on immigration and NAFTA in the rustbelt and win the debates and also hope for another Clinton scandal. It is unlikely all that will happen but not impossible

As @AlastairMeeks points out, he won't. Trump is incapable of staying on message, he lacks the discipline necessary to win.

Boris led the Leave campaign and was also hardly disciplined

And Boris is not the PM now.

PlatoSaid

Patrick said:

I would also like to see a 'Pursuit' race created in athletics.

We are a running animal. Sport is a reflection of natural physical exertions. But we rarely need to run 10k or sprint for 100m then stop. In nature we generally run because we are chasing or being chased by something else. You must go fast from the get go or you'll be caught (and become lunch). But you can't stop - or you'll be caught. You need both speed and stamina to stay ahead. You can never pace yourself but must go as fast as you can all the time. It's like the evolutionary arms race between cheetahs and gazelles.

You could have two runners with one starting, say, 5m ahead of the other. From the gun the rear one has to touch the front one to win. No touch inside 4mins and the front runner wins. That'd be a lot more exciting than a bloody 10k!

I like the sound of that!

HYUFD

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead

Of the first 10 polls at the start of the official campaigning period 6 had Remain leads, 4 had Leave leads.

So Remain led at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign like Hillary and the presidential campaign does not start officially until Labor Day in September. The debates also helped Leave in the referendum and they are even more important in presidential campaigns. I still think Hillary will win but it will be much closer in November on election night than it looks now

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Animal, you're quite right. Rogue One, not The Force Awakens.

Miss Plato, I'd also have proper sword-fighting in armour.

tlg86

Patrick said:

I would also like to see a 'Pursuit' race created in athletics.

We are a running animal. Sport is a reflection of natural physical exertions. But we rarely need to run 10k or sprint for 100m then stop. In nature we generally run because we are chasing or being chased by something else. You must go fast from the get go or you'll be caught (and become lunch). But you can't stop - or you'll be caught. You need both speed and stamina to stay ahead. You can never pace yourself but must go as fast as you can all the time. It's like the evolutionary arms race between cheetahs and gazelles.

You could have two runners with one starting, say, 5m ahead of the other. From the gun the rear one has to touch the front one to win. No touch inside 4mins and the front runner wins. That'd be a lot more exciting than a bloody 10k!

I have seen a devil takes the hind most race where the last athlete drops out each lap - but that was a bit mickey mouse.

HYUFD

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead. Trump needs to hammer Hillary as the same old corrupt establishment, focus relentlessly on immigration and NAFTA in the rustbelt and win the debates and also hope for another Clinton scandal. It is unlikely all that will happen but not impossible

As @AlastairMeeks points out, he won't. Trump is incapable of staying on message, he lacks the discipline necessary to win.

Boris led the Leave campaign and was also hardly disciplined

And Boris is not the PM now.

He won the referendum though

Pulpstar

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, aye, it's unfair to have that sort of pissing contest.

A really good hammer-thrower has one event. A really good sprinter has two or three. A really good cyclist has a few. A really good swimmer has bloody loads.

I think there should be either a cull of swimming events, or a cap on the number you can compete for given their similarities.

How many are there that a single swimmer could win at a single Olympics?

100m
200m
4x100m
4x200m
Freestyle 100m/200m?

There are so many that I've no idea who's winning what. I did note that the first Afro-American female has won a swimming gold - in a tie with a Canadian.

I was really surprised by that. I know black athletes are meant to be socially disadvantaged by a lack of interest in learning to swim/fewer facilities as a consequence. I wondered if there was a physiological aspect as well. China seems to do very well in swimming IIRC.

To take the two 'peak' examples of sprinting and swimming (Bolt/Phelps), Phelps has a 6'8 torso on sub 6'0 legs whilst Bolt has longer legs (Bolt is slightly taller than Phelps). Both have longish arms and have obviously won the genetic lottery.

Short arms do help in weightlifting though !

I think it is a combination of culture and physiology.

MaxPB

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead. Trump needs to hammer Hillary as the same old corrupt establishment, focus relentlessly on immigration and NAFTA in the rustbelt and win the debates and also hope for another Clinton scandal. It is unlikely all that will happen but not impossible

As @AlastairMeeks points out, he won't. Trump is incapable of staying on message, he lacks the discipline necessary to win.

Boris led the Leave campaign and was also hardly disciplined

And Boris is not the PM now.

He won the referendum though

Trump is not trying to win a referendum on US trade policy, he is trying to win the White House. If it were a referendum on NAFTA then he'd have a good shot at winning with his current tactics. He does not stand a good chance of winning the presidency with Leave tactics. Just as they didn't serve Boris in his pursuit of No. 10.

619

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead

Of the first 10 polls at the start of the official campaigning period 6 had Remain leads, 4 had Leave leads.

So Remain led at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign like Hillary and the presidential campaign does not start officially until Labor Day in September. The debates also helped Leave in the referendum and they are even more important in presidential campaigns. I still think Hillary will win but it will be much closer in November on election night than it looks now

its obvious what sort of person trump is to a lot of people now. his opinions and temperment is obvious to the voters. i cant see how he can change peoples (correct) opinions of him

RochdalePioneers

You have to hand it to Trump. Had he carried on his rhetoric from the primary campaign he could have been doing Shillary real damage by now. Instead he's gone batshit crazy and will probably lose in a landslide

[Deleted User]

tlg86 said:

Patrick said:

I would also like to see a 'Pursuit' race created in athletics.

We are a running animal. Sport is a reflection of natural physical exertions. But we rarely need to run 10k or sprint for 100m then stop. In nature we generally run because we are chasing or being chased by something else. You must go fast from the get go or you'll be caught (and become lunch). But you can't stop - or you'll be caught. You need both speed and stamina to stay ahead. You can never pace yourself but must go as fast as you can all the time. It's like the evolutionary arms race between cheetahs and gazelles.

You could have two runners with one starting, say, 5m ahead of the other. From the gun the rear one has to touch the front one to win. No touch inside 4mins and the front runner wins. That'd be a lot more exciting than a bloody 10k!

I have seen a devil takes the hind most race where the last athlete drops out each lap - but that was a bit mickey mouse.

I prefer my Pursuit race. You could spice it up by making the initial gap 10m instead of 5m and giving the rear runner a Taser! That'd pull in monster crowds.

MaxPB

RochdalePioneers said:

You have to hand it to Trump. Had he carried on his rhetoric from the primary campaign he could have been doing Shillary real damage by now. Instead he's gone batshit crazy and will probably lose in a landslide

Indeed, if he'd concentrated on Hillary's poor record as SoS, the emails, her dodgy foundation and her warmongering nature Trump would probably be in the lead.

tlg86

They could definitely do with fewer swimming medals and more cycling medals. They should bring back the Maddison in the track cycling, that's great fun.

HYUFD

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

MaxPB said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Donald Trump is a very poor candidate. In a year where being an establishment figure is a disadvantage of unprecedented proportions, he's losing badly against the ultimate establishment figure. Why? Because the narcissist in him requires his campaign to be about himself, not his opponent.

The strategy for the rest of the campaign is obvious. But he won't be able to follow it.

We are in August, the campaign proper does not begin to November and remember at the beginning of the EU referendum campaign Remain had a 15% lead. Trump needs to hammer Hillary as the same old corrupt establishment, focus relentlessly on immigration and NAFTA in the rustbelt and win the debates and also hope for another Clinton scandal. It is unlikely all that will happen but not impossible

As @AlastairMeeks points out, he won't. Trump is incapable of staying on message, he lacks the discipline necessary to win.

Boris led the Leave campaign and was also hardly disciplined

And Boris is not the PM now.

He won the referendum though

Trump is not trying to win a referendum on US trade policy, he is trying to win the White House. If it were a referendum on NAFTA then he'd have a good shot at winning with his current tactics. He does not stand a good chance of winning the presidency with Leave tactics. Just as they didn't serve Boris in his pursuit of No. 10.

Trump's white working class support overlaps strongly with the voters who most heavily backed Leave and opposition to NAFTA drives many of them too. Boris withdrew from the leadership campaign himself and was still more popular with voters as a whole than Tory MPs when he withdrew. Yet it was Tory MPs he needed to woo before he could get his leadership bid off the ground. Trump is not trying to win Republican Congressmen to become Speaker of the House or Senate Majority leader otherwise he would have no chance

SandyRentool

Pulpstar said:

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, aye, it's unfair to have that sort of pissing contest.

A really good hammer-thrower has one event. A really good sprinter has two or three. A really good cyclist has a few. A really good swimmer has bloody loads.

I think there should be either a cull of swimming events, or a cap on the number you can compete for given their similarities.

How many are there that a single swimmer could win at a single Olympics?

100m
200m
4x100m
4x200m
Freestyle 100m/200m?

There are so many that I've no idea who's winning what. I did note that the first Afro-American female has won a swimming gold - in a tie with a Canadian.

I was really surprised by that. I know black athletes are meant to be socially disadvantaged by a lack of interest in learning to swim/fewer facilities as a consequence. I wondered if there was a physiological aspect as well. China seems to do very well in swimming IIRC.

To take the two 'peak' examples of sprinting and swimming (Bolt/Phelps), Phelps has a 6'8 torso on sub 6'0 legs whilst Bolt has longer legs (Bolt is slightly taller than Phelps). Both have longish arms and have obviously won the genetic lottery.

Short arms do help in weightlifting though !

I think it is a combination of culture and physiology.

Yorkshire must be strong in weightlifting then, since the local folk are well known for having short arms - combined with deep pockets!

SandyRentool

tlg86 said:

They could definitely do with fewer swimming medals and more cycling medals. They should bring back the Maddison in the track cycling, that's great fun.

And a team time trial on the road.

Actually, a team time trial in athletics would be interesting too.

PlatoSaid

Pulpstar said:

PlatoSaid said:

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, aye, it's unfair to have that sort of pissing contest.

A really good hammer-thrower has one event. A really good sprinter has two or three. A really good cyclist has a few. A really good swimmer has bloody loads.

I think there should be either a cull of swimming events, or a cap on the number you can compete for given their similarities.

How many are there that a single swimmer could win at a single Olympics?

100m
200m
4x100m
4x200m
Freestyle 100m/200m?

There are so many that I've no idea who's winning what. I did note that the first Afro-American female has won a swimming gold - in a tie with a Canadian.

I was really surprised by that. I know black athletes are meant to be socially disadvantaged by a lack of interest in learning to swim/fewer facilities as a consequence. I wondered if there was a physiological aspect as well. China seems to do very well in swimming IIRC.

To take the two 'peak' examples of sprinting and swimming (Bolt/Phelps), Phelps has a 6'8 torso on sub 6'0 legs whilst Bolt has longer legs (Bolt is slightly taller than Phelps). Both have longish arms and have obviously won the genetic lottery.

Short arms do help in weightlifting though !

I think it is a combination of culture and physiology.

The genetic lottery is certainly a big factor - when Dwain Chambers got banned, I read a long intv with him... He said growing up he hardly ever trained as didn't need to bother, he could beat almost anyone without wasting the time.

He was so nonchalant about it - I quite believed him. That he played around with steroids and THG when he clearly didn't need to says everything to me. He went on to be very successful after his ban even though he was crap at rugby - what a nitwit.

DanSmith

What odds can you get on Trump failing to reach three figures? Seems highly likely to me at this stage.

MaxPB

HYUFD said:

Trump's white working class support overlaps strongly with the voters who most heavily backed Leave and opposition to NAFTA drives many of them too. Boris withdrew from the leadership campaign himself and was still more popular with voters as a whole than Tory MPs when he withdrew. Yet it was Tory MPs he needed to woo before he could get his leadership bid off the ground. Trump is not trying to win Republican Congressmen to become Speaker of the House or Senate Majority leader otherwise he would have no chance

Trump needs to woo traditional republicans who support free trade and capitalism. His failure to do that is why he's losing. He has been unable to reach across the left right divide in the same way leave did while also pissing off traditional republicans. Trump is a busted flush, even if he became disciplined and stayed on message to attack Hillary's record he probably wouldn't win. He's damaged goods, beyond rescue. I say this as someone who thought a Trump presidency might be interesting and wouldn't have been as bothered by it as most people. I don't see any path for him to victory in a nation that has an electoral college. He needs to overturn too many safe blue states and hold too many toss ups, without losing places like Arizona and even Texas which have high Hispanic populations.

FrancisUrquhart

Re bbc / terrorism - the higher ups declared an official policy , basically nothing is terrorism / nobody is a terrorist because there is no world wide accepted definition.

NickPalmer

logical_song said:

More than 70 Republicans have signed a letter to the party's National Committee head urging him to stop helping Donald Trump's campaign.
They said Mr Trump's "divisiveness" and "incompetence" risked drowning the party in November's election.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-37055398

The down-ticket impact deserves more attention. When I was over there this month there was VERY little coverage of down-ticket races, even on local TV, so the temptation to vote the party line in such a polarised election is significant. If the GOP loses control of the Senate and loses ground in the House (districting makes an abolu switch unlikely), it will have a major impact on events in the next 4 years.

That said, it's not bad that Trump is only 5-7 points behind nationally after all the negative publicity. Maybe he has a low ceiling but a high floor.