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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At the end of April YouGov had Corbyn beating Theresa May by 7% on its “best PM” ratings?
Back at the end of April when the Tories were totally split on the referendum YouGov tested how Corbyn did in its “best PM” polling against Cameron and a number of possible other contenders for the Tory leadership.
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34% lead - Tis a mere flesh wound, Corbyn will win GE2020…
/edit interestingly, despite the dramatic shift in view on 'best PM', the 'if there was an election tomorrow' polling is almost precisely back to where it was in March.
In this case, May was probably underrated during EURef - as were all Tory figures - due to the splits at the time in her party, which are now no longer visible. By contrast, Labour was then not so obviously divided as it now is. The current Tory unity and May's own political honeymoon will no doubt fade as the Brexit detail starts being debated but it's hard to see how Corbyn can ever recover any semblance of unity in Labour.
It also shows the declining view of Corbyn, at least outside the somewhat peculiar and totally distorted membership of the Labour Party.
Electoral suicide for Labour.
Yes, but, all the pollsters are ex-Blairite Spads who are making the figures up so that the Tories remain in power etc etc.
What Jezza needs is a magic voter tree.
If I squint, I can see the appeal of Corbyn - I can't see what Smith offers Labourites bar a better quality of suit. He's the symptom of the failed chicken coup - not the cause of it.
Well if you mean only 200bn we haven't got as opposed to Corbyn's 500 bn we haven't got, I guess it is an improvement from "completely insane" to "bonkers".
Can anyone explain why he's bothering to be in parliament as an MP, appointing his shadow cabinet etc if he believes that "parliament cannot deliver socialism"?
Also, does anyone know what he thinks can deliver socialism? He doesn't seem like a violent revolutionary, so I'm completely lost on his strategy.
Parliament is merely a useful platform. They are so clearly correct that eventually there will be a spontaneous uprising by the proletariat led by the vanguard of Islington dinner party attendees. Then the Capitalist running dogs of the Fascist Hyenas will get their just desserts.
Or something like that. Marx said so (not the State Capitalist variety, though).
Nice to see Peaty got his gold.
I wonder how much that difference is due to the Conservatives being rather more efficient at leadership contests. Of course, May's better than a unilateralist friend of Hamas, but the margin might be narrower otherwise.
Prescription charges - introduced by Labour.
Britain's nuclear arsenal - introduced by Labour (without telling Parliament).
What, no starters?
A reshuffle which buried the Camaroons, quick trips to multiple European capitals to sort out the real negotiation ('heads of government to fix it, EU Commission to implement or get stuffed') and no unwarranted alarums or excitements.
Imagine Prime Minister Leadsom instead......
I can see Jeremy Corbyn's appeal (no, I have not taken leave of my senses). He has his views and will not flex or resile from them. He's said that he doesn't support a second referendum and that Brexit should be honoured. Given that 90% of his membership voted Remain, that's politically 'courageous' as Sir Humphrey would say.
That's very different from most peoples idea of a politician. Unfortunately, I'm unable to become a Jezzolyte as I think his views are based on obstinacy, a limited intellect and a refusal to move on from the 70s. However, it contrasts very favourably with Smith who is simply wearing a socialist gimp suit and is clearly prepared to tell members anything in order to be elected.
When I was small, there were lots of warnings about not leaning out of windows lest you were hit by trackside furniture. I'm amazed there are any trains with opening windows left. I wish there were - on Southern Rail you either broil or freeze with the air-conditioning. The day my train ran over an escaped mentally ill prisoner, we sat for hours in 95F.
However I should caution that if you're a short arse soprano you may wish to defer your run for 2020 now ....
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/election-prediction-methods-models-2016-214148
1. Become leader.
2. Antagonise your moderate MPs until they rebel.
3. Win the leadership election when challenged.
4. (The Erdogan manoeuvre) - purge the disloyal elements via reselections.
5. Accept any defections with equanimity.
6. Wait for the Tories to come a cropper over Brexit, or to become unpopular for some other reason.
7. Sweep to power with a selection of real socialist MPs.
1 and 2 accomplished, 3 very likely to happen.
4 and 5 under his control.
6 and 7, well who knows?
Never been prouder to be a member of the Tory Party than when I woke up yesterday to news that the new Grammar schools ban may be repealed. I owe an awful lot to my local state grammar, and amongst my peer group are some very successful friends from very modest backgrounds that similarly attribute much of their success to being fortunate enough to grow up in Dorset - where there are still several very good grammars.
It is also VERY good politics - I'm reading that between 7-8 out of 10 of the general public support them. Immediate response from Lib Dem leadership and Labour figures suggesting they'll use the Lords to block any such legislation probably means another 2-4% in the opinion polls for May's eminently sensible and centrist Tories.
Policies that are good, popular and highlight the problems with the opposition parties are the bedrock of good government. Well done Ma'am; very well done.
Assume the Lib Dems don't experience a renaissance. Sans electoral reform, Labour simply have to wait. Being in opposition means you can promise a chicken in every pot - I could easily see membership growing even after electoral defeat in 2020.
Opposing is easy and rewards ones ego. Governing is hard and involves all kinds of morally impure compromises.
The reality is that the original grammars were smaller than most secondary schools are these days. The better solution is to have grammar-like streams within secondary schools, which also makes moving from one stream to the other easier and avoids the perception problems that sec mods have.
I can see why there's a certain appeal - but find myself taking Bernie a great deal more seriously.
What I can say is that Corbyn's vision for the country does not appear to be one that I share.
There's now Corbyn ceramic plates, great if you want to eat your dinner off Jeremy. Amazing. https://t.co/7CkzARSGEf https://t.co/gUGOyoOYXp
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/train-horror-person-decapitated-after-8584436
Inter Railing round Europe many moons ago, when trains still had opening windows, I found it revealing the different attitudes of different countries to leading out of the train window. In Germany it was 'Verboten', in France 'Interdit' while the Italians simply observed it was 'Dangerous'.....
It's not possible for the Hard Left to win in a country where 64% of adults (and probably 75% of voters) own property, but he no doubt hopes that a growing concentration of wealth in fewer hands will make this possible.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/08/secret-life-trade-union-employee-work-benefits-workers-rights
"A typical day consists of making a pot of coffee, answering emails from members, (im)politely declining telephone sales calls, answering “I’ve no idea” when other staff ask me what they are meant to be doing, and browsing the internet while I wait for my manager to give me some work to complete. To say I’m under-used would be an understatement – this was written at my desk."
Polemic aside, though, new grammars opening does not have to mean a return to mandatory selection at 11 or even selection by exam. There are several areas of the country where stand-alone grammars coexist with a comp system. I would think the direction we will go if May is serious about this is that direction, i.e. to let new grammars appear within the existing structures.
One very positive effect will be additional competition for the comprehensives for the brighter pupils. They will have to up their games in terms of setting, standards of behaviour etc.
The leadership contest has had more court cases than hustings...
Court ruling at 10:30am on whether Labour members who joined after January were lawfully excluded from leadership contest.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-37006557
I'd also wonder whether May would have the votes to repeal the ban. There are a number of Tory back benchers who might vote no.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/12/the-case-against-grammar-schools.html
http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2013/01/28/grammar-school-myths/
It's not clear to me how much demand there is for more grammar schools. However, by inclination I'm a fan of 'let a thousand flowers bloom'. Let there be no ban.
Mr. M, it's mildly amusing that grammar schools are simultaneously unpopular as a policy yet over-subscribed as educational institutions.
On topic, well, yes. At the moment Mrs May can do no wrong - well, she's not doing very much at all it seems except from undoing some of Osborne's plans and flying a couple of kites. It seems householders are to be bribed with their own money to turn a blind eye to fracking in their neighbourhood - interesting.
Perhaps we should try the same with planning to get more houses built - bribe all the residents in Cranleigh not to object to the proposal to build 10,000 new homes on the outskirts of their town. Might work...
I'm puzzled by OGH's comments pertaining to Corbyn and the Referendum. At the time, a lot of people on here thought Corbyn was playing a pretty good hand overall. In truth, Labour had three options:
a) campaign strongly for REMAIN
b) campaign strongly for LEAVE
c) do nothing
As the Conservatives engaged in blue-on-blue insults, Corbyn stood to one side and let them get on with it. Perfectly reasonable politics - why help your opponent when he's beating himself up ? Advocating LEAVE might have been the smarter option albeit a win for REMAIN seemed on the cards up to and indeed after the polls closed.
Europe has never resonated with Labour the way it does for the Conservatives, UKIP or the LDs. I suppose the risk of a LEAVE call was the antagonism of the Blairites and the risk of civil war (yes, well).
The Referendum has solved nothing in the Conservative Party apart from costing it another leader - the ludicrous "Brexit means Brexit" from the Prime Minister is up there with some of the silliest things I've heard - and once the details of what kind of future relationship with the EU become clear, it may be, as others have suggested, that the Conservatives will once again look disunited and fragmented.
https://twitter.com/bbcstrictly/status/762548161290403840
As far as sport was concerned anyone who belonged to a sports club which conflicted with sports offered by the school was in trouble. Late in my time several sixth formers were stripped of privileges for preferring to play soccer “outside", rather than rugby “within”. I can’t recall anyone who played for one of the local, as opposed to the school, cricket teams.