politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest WH2016 and LAB leadership betting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest WH2016 and LAB leadership betting
politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress
with "Neat!" theme. Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
TBH, I think they were all just f##ked from the Tour de France. Thomas was really struggling on the climbs to stay with the leading bunch, even before Nibali attacked. In a Tour de France stage that isn't normally enough to break Thomas, it requires 3-4 of the very best going 100% to the max to make him blow up.
Labour leader urged to explain £10,000 raised for his 2015 campaign at dinner organised by Palestinian group
A Palestinian group whose founder once praised the militant Islamist group Hamas held a fundraising dinner at which it collected £10,000 for Jeremy Corbyn’s last leadership campaign, documents seen by the Observer reveal
Friends of al-Aqsa gave Corbyn’s team a cheque for £10,000 in August 2015, an investigation by this newspaper has found, although the gift has never been made public. Any donation above £7,500 should be declared to the Electoral Commission.
Corbyn’s campaign said it did not declare the donation because its bank subsequently rejected the cheque, as it was made out to the wrong person. A spokesman for Corbyn was unable to explain on Saturday what then happened to the cash raised. A spokesman said: “I’m told a second cheque may have been sent, but this was not received by the campaign.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/06/jeremy-corbyn-campaign-donation-palestine?CMP=twt_gu
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
http://www.politico.eu/article/two-belgian-police-officers-attacked-with-machete/
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066549/quotes?item=qt0456844
By God, that man does war honor.
Really, it's crap
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
Mind you, the evidence is that the biggest factor in rehabilitation is age - the habituals are typically young. When they get to their mid thirties they tend to drop out of crime - it's not generally a profitable career. A study the Economist did a while back suggested that the average gang member in the US made rather less than working part time at McDonalds....
How to stop the boats - Australian style..... https://t.co/w7qnmUqX6R
The inclusion of Nigeria does make a LOL moment.
There's a lot more to GDP than population and commodities.
Divy up the costs of the justice system per case and you will see what I mean.
Not tied up. Just a future (potential) liability.
Assuming both sides trust each other.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/3976/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-latest-wh2016-and-lab-leadership-betting#latest
Less than £10,000 (which is what you reckon for even the simplest magistrate case) and you pay my £100. More, and I pay you.
There May be trouble ahead.
Theresa May plots drastic House of Lords overhaul after David Cameron’s resignation honours list sparks outrage
The problem with doing those sums would be coming up with an honest way of dividing the non-direct costs between the cases. One of the giant fraud cases, lasting years, with silks all over the place, vs Fred pleading guilty to assault at the magistrates...
Hmmm.. could be an interest subject for a academic study. You could probably get an MPhil out of doing a good job on that.
Hmmmmm....
Return to hereditary peers only? Could sell that as "sack all the failed politicians".....
Any suggestions for an unpopular reform?
The total bill for the Department of Justice divided by the total number of cases tried in a year.
I wonder what a similar publication might have looked like in say 1925? Or even 1965?
* Allow the heridatries to die off. I understand why there was some "legitimate expectation" problem with abolishing them on the spot, but that's no reason to replace them when they die out.
*Abolish the Lords spiritual, but make clear that faith leaders are a valued part of the House of Lords and encourage them to seek life peerages.
* Follow through on encouraging members to retire. Consider how the peers who no longer contribute can be identified.
* Adopt a "two out one in" strategy, for the time being. The PM, LOTO, etc, can still put people forward, just tighter numbers. Consider what level is appropriate, perhaps 4-5 hundred.
I realise this is nothing radical, but I think it would straighten things out to a considerable extent
How to stop the boats - Australian style..... https://t.co/w7qnmUqX6R
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/06/theresa-may-to-end-ban-on-new-grammar-schools/
Too many people start their thinking of Lords reform from the wrong end, try to force the earlier questions to fit their preconceived notion of how the process of getting people into the Lords should work.
Personally while in my heart I know it is not really right for anyone not elected to hold a position of such potential power and influence, I do think an appointed HoL done right, in an ideal world, has plenty to recommend it - a revising chamber full of the most notable of politicians, but also those who would not normally seek election and have much to contribute legislatively, from business, charity, religion, military, law, civil service etc - but given the practice would always become corrupted, maybe just giving in and going full elected is the way to go, as it'll happen eventually.
There does seem little reason why the Hereditaries keep getting replaced. Several former members or prospective members of the HoL took up the opportunity to be elected into office when they got the chance, and even after that they could get back into the HoL with a Life Peerage on top of their hereditary peerage, so no hereditary peer need be barred from governmental work if they want. And since most already don't get a place in the House of Peers, it doesn't diminish the nature of the heriditaries more than is already the case.
From your suggestions I would say:
*There should be no need to wait to abolish the heriditaries - I don't know why only that small number was set to remain in the late 90s, or why the number is fixed, but it's been nearly 20 years since the bulk were removed, the others have been given fair warning.
*Abolishing the Lords Spiritual in such a fashion works for me - no objection to a Peerage to a few, but automatic?
*I'd go further - councillors are excluded from office if they do not attend at least one meeting in 6 months unless granted an exemption eg for illness. Given the HoL is much more nationally important, stricter rules should be in place - we want people who would not necessarily stand for election and all the pressures of that, but you need to show willing and show up a certain amount. If you don't or cannot, you should be excluded, not merely encouraged to resign. You can keep the title though, if all they want is the gong.
*Probably the most likely way to get some agreement I guess.
The Canadian women's fencing uniform is wonderfully terrifying and sci-fi. https://t.co/i7IQ6JpHEK
That said I enjoy taking summaries of such a position and extrapolating it to other, ridiculous, scenarios. 'You have to respect the decision people made', they say, and we shouldn't seek to reverse that, but what about you seeking to oppose a government that was elected?
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/The-Criminal-Justice-system-landscape-review-summary1.pdf
from here
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/471625/costs-per-place.pdf
prison is
£2,804,394,939, so take that off
from
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/533097/criminal-court-statistics-jan-mar-2016.pdf
page 8 ....
we have 304,300 magistrates court cases and 46,500 in Crown court ?? Crudely add that together (yes, I know, all cases start in the magistrates court)
So we end up with 40K per case.
OK - what did I do wrong?
There was a serious problem with thousands of deaths a year on unseaworthy and overloaded boats trying to get from Asia to Australia - the zero tolerance policy of the Aussies is literally saving thousands of lives a year.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/donald-trump-ups-game-hires-firm-behind-brexit-win/#st_refDomain=&st_refQuery=
"Cambridge Analytica is a marketing firm that specializes going after first-time voters and those who feel left out of the process – the typical Trump supporter.
The Wrap reported:
Donald Trump and his team have upped their game to win the race for the White House by hiring the company that got the Brexit message to millions, resulting in the split of Great Britain from the European Union.
Cambridge Analytica is a marketing film that targets voters (and potential donors) based on their unconscious psychological biases.
The strategic communications company also worked with former GOP candidates Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and the “Leave.EU” campaign in the United Kingdom. According to the Daily Beast, Cambridge Analytica “went after first-time voters and those who felt left out of the political process, the kinds of people that Trump was successful bringing to the polls in primary elections.”
http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html
https://twitter.com/montie/status/761940870568509441
For those who don't get the joke - the people smugglers would dump their cargos (when they actually made it to land) in the most remote place they could find.
Wandering around Australia's tropical coast is not something even experts do lightly. You need to know what you are doing and be well equipped. Otherwise you are lunch
'The problem with having a second elected chamber is the issue of primacy. They will both suppose to be the voice of the people.'
What's wrong with keeping the current status quo with 300 elected representatives or whatever you want to call them. Some specialist non elected representatives also OK but without voting rights.
'Your opinion. Most compassionate and civilised people understand that the Aussie approach is thoroughly despicable. Ask Human Rights Watch and the like.'
Bollocks, it's what the Australian people in a 'civilised' country want, if the human rights brigade want to it change let them get elected first,otherwise just feck off.
'Because then both chambers will be elected.'
On that basis a Parish council should have the same powers as a County council as they are both elected.