Not sure what Team GB tactics were for that Olympic road race, didn't seem like they had any.
So used to Team Sky having everything all planned to the millisecond, seemed very odd to have Cummings blow up with 100km to go, Thomas to go off without Froome etc etc etc.
Cummings was the outrider.
He blew up before they even hit the big climbs. There didn't seem like there was any sort of coordinated approach. When he put the hammer down, Froome and Thomas were at the back having a piss and changing bikes.
TBH, I think they were all just f##ked from the Tour de France. Thomas was really struggling on the climbs to stay with the leading bunch, even before Nibali attacked. In a Tour de France stage that isn't normally enough to break Thomas, it requires 3-4 of the very best going 100% to the max to make him blow up.
‘There’s nothing dodgy’: questions over Jeremy Corbyn donation
Labour leader urged to explain £10,000 raised for his 2015 campaign at dinner organised by Palestinian group
A Palestinian group whose founder once praised the militant Islamist group Hamas held a fundraising dinner at which it collected £10,000 for Jeremy Corbyn’s last leadership campaign, documents seen by the Observer reveal
Friends of al-Aqsa gave Corbyn’s team a cheque for £10,000 in August 2015, an investigation by this newspaper has found, although the gift has never been made public. Any donation above £7,500 should be declared to the Electoral Commission.
Corbyn’s campaign said it did not declare the donation because its bank subsequently rejected the cheque, as it was made out to the wrong person. A spokesman for Corbyn was unable to explain on Saturday what then happened to the cash raised. A spokesman said: “I’m told a second cheque may have been sent, but this was not received by the campaign.”
A Palestinian group whose founder once praised the militant Islamist group Hamas held a fundraising dinner at which it collected £10,000 for Jeremy Corbyn’s last leadership campaign, documents seen by the Observer reveal
Friends of al-Aqsa gave Corbyn’s team a cheque for £10,000 in August 2015, an investigation by this newspaper has found, although the gift has never been made public. Any donation above £7,500 should be declared to the Electoral Commission.
Corbyn’s campaign said it did not declare the donation because its bank subsequently rejected the cheque, as it was made out to the wrong person. A spokesman for Corbyn was unable to explain on Saturday what then happened to the cash raised. A spokesman said: “I’m told a second cheque may have been sent, but this was not received by the campaign.”
What is wrong with the headers on PB today - I can't read the stories or the comments on my iPad without the page jumping up and down and there is a huge lag on entering comments
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
A lot of it from high-profile mainstream French rightwingers - not just the FN.
"They are at war and we do nothing" - etc
Everytime I heard Charleroi today, I thought of of the 1970 movie Waterloo, and the immortal line spoken by Christopher Plumber (as the Iron Duke) at the news that Napoleon has turned his flank at Charleroi
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
Excellent point.
Ironically, it is because we have got the habituals in a box, that we can try and rehabilitate them. Hence the Gove idea of getting rid of the victorian prisons, building new ones (while actually making money on the deal) and pushing forward with more education etc. is the right one. The new prisons are needed, since it is impossible to run the classes etc in the old ones...
Mind you, the evidence is that the biggest factor in rehabilitation is age - the habituals are typically young. When they get to their mid thirties they tend to drop out of crime - it's not generally a profitable career. A study the Economist did a while back suggested that the average gang member in the US made rather less than working part time at McDonalds....
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
The inclusion of Nigeria does make a LOL moment.
There's a lot more to GDP than population and commodities.
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
While I agree with your premise (that we should prevent crime even if it is net negative in near term costs) I don't believe for a second that a simple magistrate case costs anything like £10k. Legal aid pays something like £300 for whole day defences, the prosecution isn't paid much more, and magistrates get next to nothing
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
34 years of having the money tied up.
The amusing bit is that the Nigerian economy has probably halved in US dollar terms since the report was published. ( As has the Russian one)
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
While I agree with your premise (that we should prevent crime even if it is net negative in near term costs) I don't believe for a second that a simple magistrate case costs anything like £10k. Legal aid pays something like £300 for whole day defences, the prosecution isn't paid much more, and magistrates get next to nothing
Legal aid pays that - but administering the legal aid? A thick, badly written file of evidence doesn't just write itself... Building cost, security, police time... It is startling the ways costs mount up. The costs you see are just the visible portion of the iceberg. Those office blocks of civil servants don't pay for themselves...
Divy up the costs of the justice system per case and you will see what I mean.
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
Russia has just about turned its demographics around. Sadly, I'll be dead in 2050, so unable to wager .
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
I thought due to demographics even Germany was forecast to decline below the UK some point in the mid 2030s.
What is wrong with the headers on PB today - I can't read the stories or the comments on my iPad without the page jumping up and down and there is a huge lag on entering comments
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
While I agree with your premise (that we should prevent crime even if it is net negative in near term costs) I don't believe for a second that a simple magistrate case costs anything like £10k. Legal aid pays something like £300 for whole day defences, the prosecution isn't paid much more, and magistrates get next to nothing
Legal aid pays that - but administering the legal aid? A thick, badly written file of evidence doesn't just write itself... Building cost, security, police time... It is startling the ways costs mount up. The costs you see are just the visible portion of the iceberg. Those office blocks of civil servants don't pay for themselves...
Divy up the costs of the justice system per case and you will see what I mean.
OK. I'll do you a bet. We'll divide the cost of the courts system by the number of prosecutors cases to get a total cost per case.
Less than £10,000 (which is what you reckon for even the simplest magistrate case) and you pay my £100. More, and I pay you.
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
I thought due to demographics even Germany was forecast to decline below the UK some point in the mid 2030s.
Like for like comparisons may be difficult. The borders of three of that mooted top ten have changed in the last 35 years. Several of that mooted top ten might well see their boundaries change in the next 35 years.
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
While I agree with your premise (that we should prevent crime even if it is net negative in near term costs) I don't believe for a second that a simple magistrate case costs anything like £10k. Legal aid pays something like £300 for whole day defences, the prosecution isn't paid much more, and magistrates get next to nothing
Legal aid pays that - but administering the legal aid? A thick, badly written file of evidence doesn't just write itself... Building cost, security, police time... It is startling the ways costs mount up. The costs you see are just the visible portion of the iceberg. Those office blocks of civil servants don't pay for themselves...
Divy up the costs of the justice system per case and you will see what I mean.
OK. I'll do you a bet. We'll divide the cost of the courts system by the number of prosecutors cases to get a total cost per case.
Less than £10,000 (which is what you reckon for even the simplest magistrate case) and you pay my £100. More, and I pay you.
Not rich enough to risk money like that :-)
The problem with doing those sums would be coming up with an honest way of dividing the non-direct costs between the cases. One of the giant fraud cases, lasting years, with silks all over the place, vs Fred pleading guilty to assault at the magistrates...
Hmmm.. could be an interest subject for a academic study. You could probably get an MPhil out of doing a good job on that.
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
I thought due to demographics even Germany was forecast to decline below the UK some point in the mid 2030s.
Their population is now growing again.
Not optimal growth of easy to integrate hard working types though.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
I thought due to demographics even Germany was forecast to decline below the UK some point in the mid 2030s.
Their population is now growing again.
Not optimal growth of easy to integrate hard working types though.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
It is pretty hard to imagine a reform that wouldn't be popular.... Actually that is a challenge...
Hmmmmm....
Return to hereditary peers only? Could sell that as "sack all the failed politicians".....
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
While I agree with your premise (that we should prevent crime even if it is net negative in near term costs) I don't believe for a second that a simple magistrate case costs anything like £10k. Legal aid pays something like £300 for whole day defences, the prosecution isn't paid much more, and magistrates get next to nothing
Legal aid pays that - but administering the legal aid? A thick, badly written file of evidence doesn't just write itself... Building cost, security, police time... It is startling the ways costs mount up. The costs you see are just the visible portion of the iceberg. Those office blocks of civil servants don't pay for themselves...
Divy up the costs of the justice system per case and you will see what I mean.
OK. I'll do you a bet. We'll divide the cost of the courts system by the number of prosecutors cases to get a total cost per case.
Less than £10,000 (which is what you reckon for even the simplest magistrate case) and you pay my £100. More, and I pay you.
Not rich enough to risk money like that :-)
The problem with doing those sums would be coming up with an honest way of dividing the non-direct costs between the cases. One of the giant fraud cases, lasting years, with silks all over the place, vs Fred pleading guilty to assault at the magistrates...
Hmmm.. could be an interest subject for a academic study. You could probably get an MPhil out of doing a good job on that.
But I'm offering you all of that
The total bill for the Department of Justice divided by the total number of cases tried in a year.
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
Crap is indeed exactly what it is.
I wonder what a similar publication might have looked like in say 1925? Or even 1965?
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
I would:
* Allow the heridatries to die off. I understand why there was some "legitimate expectation" problem with abolishing them on the spot, but that's no reason to replace them when they die out. *Abolish the Lords spiritual, but make clear that faith leaders are a valued part of the House of Lords and encourage them to seek life peerages. * Follow through on encouraging members to retire. Consider how the peers who no longer contribute can be identified. * Adopt a "two out one in" strategy, for the time being. The PM, LOTO, etc, can still put people forward, just tighter numbers. Consider what level is appropriate, perhaps 4-5 hundred.
I realise this is nothing radical, but I think it would straighten things out to a considerable extent
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
It is pretty hard to imagine a reform that wouldn't be popular.... Actually that is a challenge...
Hmmmmm....
Return to hereditary peers only? Could sell that as "sack all the failed politicians".....
Any suggestions for an unpopular reform?
The problem with having a second elected chamber is the issue of primacy. They will both suppose to be the voice of the people.
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
While I agree with your premise (that we should prevent crime even if it is net negative in near term costs) I don't believe for a second that a simple magistrate case costs anything like £10k. Legal aid pays something like £300 for whole day defences, the prosecution isn't paid much more, and magistrates get next to nothing
Divy up the costs of the justice system per case and you will see what I mean.
OK. I'll do you a bet. We'll divide the cost of the courts system by the number of prosecutors cases to get a total cost per case.
Less than £10,000 (which is what you reckon for even the simplest magistrate case) and you pay my £100. More, and I pay you.
Not rich enough to risk money like that :-)
The problem with doing those sums would be coming up with an honest way of dividing the non-direct costs between the cases. One of the giant fraud cases, lasting years, with silks all over the place, vs Fred pleading guilty to assault at the magistrates...
Hmmm.. could be an interest subject for a academic study. You could probably get an MPhil out of doing a good job on that.
But I'm offering you all of that
The total bill for the Department of Justice divided by the total number of cases tried in a year.
I make it ~4.3k-5.6k per case your honour. Based on MoJ figures.
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. [...]
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
While I agree with your premise (that we should prevent crime even if it is net negative in near term costs) I don't believe for a second that a simple magistrate case costs anything like £10k. Legal aid pays something like £300 for whole day defences, the prosecution isn't paid much more, and magistrates get next to nothing
Legal aid pays that - but administering the legal aid? A thick, badly written file of evidence doesn't just write itself... Building cost, security, police time... It is startling the ways costs mount up. The costs you see are just the visible portion of the iceberg. Those office blocks of civil servants don't pay for themselves...
Divy up the costs of the justice system per case and you will see what I mean.
OK. I'll do you a bet. We'll divide the cost of the courts system by the number of prosecutors cases to get a total cost per case.
Less than £10,000 (which is what you reckon for even the simplest magistrate case) and you pay my £100. More, and I pay you.
Not rich enough to risk money like that :-)
The problem with doing those sums would be coming up with an honest way of dividing the non-direct costs between the cases. One of the giant fraud cases, lasting years, with silks all over the place, vs Fred pleading guilty to assault at the magistrates...
Hmmm.. could be an interest subject for a academic study. You could probably get an MPhil out of doing a good job on that.
But I'm offering you all of that
The total bill for the Department of Justice divided by the total number of cases tried in a year.
The actual stat would be interesting, particularly the skew.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
It is pretty hard to imagine a reform that wouldn't be popular.... Actually that is a challenge...
Hmmmmm....
Return to hereditary peers only? Could sell that as "sack all the failed politicians".....
Any suggestions for an unpopular reform?
The problem with having a second elected chamber is the issue of primacy. They will both suppose to be the voice of the people.
That is indeed a potential issue. Ours has been a system of unequal chambers for some time, there are plenty of ways to have a PM system and 2 elected chambers, but the current membership of the Commons will need a culture change as much as the Lords will need changing.
What is wrong with the headers on PB today - I can't read the stories or the comments on my iPad without the page jumping up and down and there is a huge lag on entering comments
@PBModerator@rcs1000 the issue seems to be either the second image in the header "2016 Labour Leadership Contest" or something between the two images. The first image is static but the second one and everything below on the page are jumping around and It's making iPads go crazy!
What is wrong with the headers on PB today - I can't read the stories or the comments on my iPad without the page jumping up and down and there is a huge lag on entering comments
@PBModerator@rcs1000 the issue seems to be either the second image in the header "2016 Labour Leadership Contest" or something between the two images. The first image is static but the second one and everything below on the page are jumping around and It's making iPads go crazy!
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
At the moment its the House of Commons that is disfunctional rather than the Lords which is getting on with doing its job quite competently. May really should focus on the important rather than being diverted by nonsense.
It's a dumb idea. I say that as a working class kid who went to grammar and thence to uni. The problems the SMs caused outweigh the benefits to the lucky few such as yours truly.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
At the moment its the House of Commons that is disfunctional rather than the Lords which is getting on with doing its job quite competently. May really should focus on the important rather than being diverted by nonsense.
Some examples to back up your claim? I wouldn't argue that one was worse than the other...
It's a dumb idea. I say that as a working class kid who went to grammar and thence to uni. The problems the SMs caused outweigh the benefits to the lucky few such as yours truly.
Yes, but the current proposals are really to add a handful more grammars to the existing handful, not a return to a national two-tier system
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
It is pretty hard to imagine a reform that wouldn't be popular.... Actually that is a challenge...
Hmmmmm....
Return to hereditary peers only? Could sell that as "sack all the failed politicians".....
Any suggestions for an unpopular reform?
The problem with having a second elected chamber is the issue of primacy. They will both suppose to be the voice of the people.
As is usually said in these discussions, first it needs to be decided what a reformed House of Lords is *for*. Once we've decided that, we can look at the sort of people we want sitting there, then look at how that can come about.
Too many people start their thinking of Lords reform from the wrong end, try to force the earlier questions to fit their preconceived notion of how the process of getting people into the Lords should work.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
It is pretty hard to imagine a reform that wouldn't be popular.... Actually that is a challenge...
Hmmmmm....
Return to hereditary peers only? Could sell that as "sack all the failed politicians".....
Any suggestions for an unpopular reform?
The problem with having a second elected chamber is the issue of primacy. They will both suppose to be the voice of the people.
As is usually said in these discussions, first it needs to be decided what a reformed House of Lords is *for*. Once we've decided that, we can look at the sort of people we want sitting there, then look at how that can come about.
Too many people start their thinking of Lords reform from the wrong end and try to force the earlier questions to fit their preconceived notion of how the process of getting people into the Lords should work.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
At the moment its the House of Commons that is disfunctional rather than the Lords which is getting on with doing its job quite competently. May really should focus on the important rather than being diverted by nonsense.
Some examples to back up your claim? I wouldn't argue that one was worse than the other...
Labour as an opposition or even scrutiniser of legislation has fallen apart in the Commons. It is only in the Lords that legislation is being properly tested. It's the idiosyncratic, slightly shambolic UK unwritten constitution that allows the country to navigate constitutional difficulties with relative ease.
* Allow the heridatries to die off. I understand why there was some "legitimate expectation" problem with abolishing them on the spot, but that's no reason to replace them when they die out. *Abolish the Lords spiritual, but make clear that faith leaders are a valued part of the House of Lords and encourage them to seek life peerages. * Follow through on encouraging members to retire. Consider how the peers who no longer contribute can be identified. * Adopt a "two out one in" strategy, for the time being. The PM, LOTO, etc, can still put people forward, just tighter numbers. Consider what level is appropriate, perhaps 4-5 hundred.
I realise this is nothing radical, but I think it would straighten things out to a considerable extent
Given the historic British reluctance for radical constitutional change, and that we have enough of that going on at present thank you very much given the state of the Union, less than radical changes would seem the best approach quite frankly.
Personally while in my heart I know it is not really right for anyone not elected to hold a position of such potential power and influence, I do think an appointed HoL done right, in an ideal world, has plenty to recommend it - a revising chamber full of the most notable of politicians, but also those who would not normally seek election and have much to contribute legislatively, from business, charity, religion, military, law, civil service etc - but given the practice would always become corrupted, maybe just giving in and going full elected is the way to go, as it'll happen eventually.
There does seem little reason why the Hereditaries keep getting replaced. Several former members or prospective members of the HoL took up the opportunity to be elected into office when they got the chance, and even after that they could get back into the HoL with a Life Peerage on top of their hereditary peerage, so no hereditary peer need be barred from governmental work if they want. And since most already don't get a place in the House of Peers, it doesn't diminish the nature of the heriditaries more than is already the case.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
I would:
* Allow the heridatries to die off. I understand why there was some "legitimate expectation" problem with abolishing them on the spot, but that's no reason to replace them when they die out. *Abolish the Lords spiritual, but make clear that faith leaders are a valued part of the House of Lords and encourage them to seek life peerages. * Follow through on encouraging members to retire. Consider how the peers who no longer contribute can be identified. * Adopt a "two out one in" strategy, for the time being. The PM, LOTO, etc, can still put people forward, just tighter numbers. Consider what level is appropriate, perhaps 4-5 hundred.
I realise this is nothing radical, but I think it would straighten things out to a considerable extent
From your suggestions I would say:
*There should be no need to wait to abolish the heriditaries - I don't know why only that small number was set to remain in the late 90s, or why the number is fixed, but it's been nearly 20 years since the bulk were removed, the others have been given fair warning. *Abolishing the Lords Spiritual in such a fashion works for me - no objection to a Peerage to a few, but automatic? *I'd go further - councillors are excluded from office if they do not attend at least one meeting in 6 months unless granted an exemption eg for illness. Given the HoL is much more nationally important, stricter rules should be in place - we want people who would not necessarily stand for election and all the pressures of that, but you need to show willing and show up a certain amount. If you don't or cannot, you should be excluded, not merely encouraged to resign. You can keep the title though, if all they want is the gong. *Probably the most likely way to get some agreement I guess.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
At the moment its the House of Commons that is disfunctional rather than the Lords which is getting on with doing its job quite competently. May really should focus on the important rather than being diverted by nonsense.
Some examples to back up your claim? I wouldn't argue that one was worse than the other...
Labour as an opposition or even scrutiniser of legislation has fallen apart in the Commons. It is only in the Lords that legislation is being properly tested. It's the idiosyncratic, slightly shambolic UK unwritten constitution that allows the country to navigate constitutional difficulties with relative ease.
That's nothing to do with the commons, but Labour party machinations. Unless your reform would be to abolish the Labour party...
I'm beginning to worry I am coming to understand Corbyn, since I always thought that would be the approach Labour under him would take. Particularly with the election likely to be after the article 50 declaration, there's little to be gained and a lot to risk by doing otherwise, no matter how pro-EU the party membership may be.
That said I enjoy taking summaries of such a position and extrapolating it to other, ridiculous, scenarios. 'You have to respect the decision people made', they say, and we shouldn't seek to reverse that, but what about you seeking to oppose a government that was elected?
I bloody well hope not. We are better than this...
The Aussies have got it right
It's a fair warning. Does murali_s think once illegal immigrants have entered the country they should just get a free ride? There are legal channels for a reason...
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
While I agree with your premise (that we should prevent crime even if it is net negative in near term costs) I don't believe for a second that a simple magistrate case costs anything like £10k. Legal aid pays something like £300 for whole day defences, the prosecution isn't paid much more, and magistrates get next to nothing
Legal aid pays that - but administering the legal aid? A thick, badly written file of evidence doesn't just write itself... Building cost, security, police time... It is startling the ways costs mount up. The costs you see are just the visible portion of the iceberg. Those office blocks of civil servants don't pay for themselves...
Divy up the costs of the justice system per case and you will see what I mean.
So far I seem to have found that we are spending 17.1 billion on the criminal justice system
I bloody well hope not. We are better than this...
The Aussies have got it right
Your opinion. Most compassionate and civilised people understand that the Aussie approach is thoroughly despicable. Ask Human Rights Watch and the like.
I bloody well hope not. We are better than this...
The Aussies have got it right
It's a fair warning. Does murali_s think once illegal immigrants have entered the country they should just get a free ride? There are legal channels for a reason...
And what the people really don't like is when those who follow the process get knocked back, while those who ignore the rules and just turn up in a boat have the red carpet rolled out for them.
There was a serious problem with thousands of deaths a year on unseaworthy and overloaded boats trying to get from Asia to Australia - the zero tolerance policy of the Aussies is literally saving thousands of lives a year.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
At the moment its the House of Commons that is disfunctional rather than the Lords which is getting on with doing its job quite competently. May really should focus on the important rather than being diverted by nonsense.
Some examples to back up your claim? I wouldn't argue that one was worse than the other...
Labour as an opposition or even scrutiniser of legislation has fallen apart in the Commons. It is only in the Lords that legislation is being properly tested. It's the idiosyncratic, slightly shambolic UK unwritten constitution that allows the country to navigate constitutional difficulties with relative ease.
That's nothing to do with the commons, but Labour party machinations. Unless your reform would be to abolish the Labour party...
My point is that by having an unelected Lords, a situation that would never have been anticipated has less serious consequences than a constitutionally 'neat' setup.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
At the moment its the House of Commons that is disfunctional rather than the Lords which is getting on with doing its job quite competently. May really should focus on the important rather than being diverted by nonsense.
Some examples to back up your claim? I wouldn't argue that one was worse than the other...
Labour as an opposition or even scrutiniser of legislation has fallen apart in the Commons. It is only in the Lords that legislation is being properly tested. It's the idiosyncratic, slightly shambolic UK unwritten constitution that allows the country to navigate constitutional difficulties with relative ease.
That's nothing to do with the commons, but Labour party machinations. Unless your reform would be to abolish the Labour party...
My point is that by having an unelected Lords, a situation that would never have been anticipated has less serious consequences than a constitutionally 'neat' setup.
So we should have an unelected commons then? I can't see what reform you are proposing that would make the PLP get along with their leader. Reforming Labour's leadership voting system, perhaps, but not a reform of the commons.
"Cambridge Analytica is a marketing firm that specializes going after first-time voters and those who feel left out of the process – the typical Trump supporter. The Wrap reported:
Donald Trump and his team have upped their game to win the race for the White House by hiring the company that got the Brexit message to millions, resulting in the split of Great Britain from the European Union.
Cambridge Analytica is a marketing film that targets voters (and potential donors) based on their unconscious psychological biases.
The strategic communications company also worked with former GOP candidates Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and the “Leave.EU” campaign in the United Kingdom. According to the Daily Beast, Cambridge Analytica “went after first-time voters and those who felt left out of the political process, the kinds of people that Trump was successful bringing to the polls in primary elections.”
I bloody well hope not. We are better than this...
The Aussies have got it right
Your opinion. Most compassionate and civilised people understand that the Aussie approach is thoroughly despicable. Ask Human Rights Watch and the like.
You mean the same Human Rights Watch that is trying to get non-state actors out of coverage of the laws of war? Apparently they think it is unfair to demand that terrorists don't terrorise people....
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
While I agree with your premise (that we should prevent crime even if it is net negative in near term costs) I don't believe for a second that a simple magistrate case costs anything like £10k. Legal aid pays something like £300 for whole day defences, the prosecution isn't paid much more, and magistrates get next to nothing
Bet you they load all the overhead of the court system into that. The star that always amazes me is that TV licensing is over 10% of cases but (i think) 2% of resources because they process them in batches. Magistrates hate those days
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
At the moment its the House of Commons that is disfunctional rather than the Lords which is getting on with doing its job quite competently. May really should focus on the important rather than being diverted by nonsense.
Some examples to back up your claim? I wouldn't argue that one was worse than the other...
Labour as an opposition or even scrutiniser of legislation has fallen apart in the Commons. It is only in the Lords that legislation is being properly tested. It's the idiosyncratic, slightly shambolic UK unwritten constitution that allows the country to navigate constitutional difficulties with relative ease.
That's nothing to do with the commons, but Labour party machinations. Unless your reform would be to abolish the Labour party...
My point is that by having an unelected Lords, a situation that would never have been anticipated has less serious consequences than a constitutionally 'neat' setup.
So we should have an unelected commons then? I can't see what reform you are proposing that would make the PLP get along with their leader. Reforming Labour's leadership voting system, perhaps, but not a reform of the commons.
We're all in agreement that we should have a wholly elected House of Lords, elected under AV?
I bloody well hope not. We are better than this...
The Aussies have got it right
Your opinion. Most compassionate and civilised people understand that the Aussie approach is thoroughly despicable. Ask Human Rights Watch and the like.
Yes it is my opinion. I have no interest in jokers like Human Rights Watch or in preening clowns who describe themselves as 'civilised' and 'compassionate' compared to other people.
Not sure why it will have taken this outrage to spark an overhaul. Perhaps this time the Lords will finally be properly reformed in a democratic way, although since so many previous attempts at various reforms have been begun with grand intent and then fall away for all sorts of reasons, I'll believe it when I see it.
At the moment its the House of Commons that is disfunctional rather than the Lords which is getting on with doing its job quite competently. May really should focus on the important rather than being diverted by nonsense.
Some examples to back up your claim? I wouldn't argue that one was worse than the other...
Labour as an opposition or even scrutiniser of legislation has fallen apart in the Commons. It is only in the Lords that legislation is being properly tested. It's the idiosyncratic, slightly shambolic UK unwritten constitution that allows the country to navigate constitutional difficulties with relative ease.
That's nothing to do with the commons, but Labour party machinations. Unless your reform would be to abolish the Labour party...
My point is that by having an unelected Lords, a situation that would never have been anticipated has less serious consequences than a constitutionally 'neat' setup.
So we should have an unelected commons then? I can't see what reform you are proposing that would make the PLP get along with their leader. Reforming Labour's leadership voting system, perhaps, but not a reform of the commons.
We're all in agreement that we should have a wholly elected House of Lords, elected under AV?
Na. How about a wholly hereditary chamber (capped at say 650), whose members are elected by AV from the wider pool of hereditaries.
I bloody well hope not. We are better than this...
The Aussies have got it right
It's a fair warning. Does murali_s think once illegal immigrants have entered the country they should just get a free ride? There are legal channels for a reason...
And what the people really don't like is when those who follow the process get knocked back, while those who ignore the rules and just turn up in a boat have the red carpet rolled out for them.
There was a serious problem with thousands of deaths a year on unseaworthy and overloaded boats trying to get from Asia to Australia - the zero tolerance policy of the Aussies is literally saving thousands of lives a year.
Sad end to that very weird tale about the Iranian nuclear scientist who defected to the US/claimed to have been kidnapped and drugged by the US (depending on which of several very odd videos he put out) and went back to Iran to a huge public celebration as a hero (much to the humiliation of the US) before vanishing again, imprisoned at a military facility, contact with family ending .... and now turning up dead, hanged.
I recall Y0kel posting about this at the time the weird videos went and out and later when he went back. Can't remember what his opinion about most likely outcome was.
Edward Snowden now seems to have entered "expendable" territory and is making a bit of a mug of himself protesting Putin's violations of free and private communications online. Going from America to Russia if state coercion and control of the internet is your bugbear always stank of "frying pan to fire". Wonder if he will do himself a favour and shut up.
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
In terms of gdp per capita all those nations will be ahead, the UK is projected to have a gdp per capita of $79,721, Germany $86,019, France $71,698, to Nigeria's $17,806, Mexico's $51,663, Brazil's $39,700 and Russia's $61,727. However while the figures may be wrong is it that surprising the most populous nations in the world will also be the nations with the largest economies? Especially now Marxism has largely collapsed as an influence in the developing world. http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
I thought due to demographics even Germany was forecast to decline below the UK some point in the mid 2030s.
Their population is now growing again.
Not optimal growth of easy to integrate hard working types though.
A strange thing to say. In general, refugees from war zones tend to be the brightest and most rational of the population. The thick ones don't have the gumption to flee, while the nutters will stay and fight to the end. While Germany currently has a challenge to integrate its new inhabitants, it is likely to reap rewards in the long term.
Sad end to that very weird tale about the Iranian nuclear scientist who defected to the US/claimed to have been kidnapped and drugged by the US (depending on which of several very odd videos he put out) and went back to Iran to a huge public celebration as a hero (much to the humiliation of the US) before vanishing again, imprisoned at a military facility, contact with family ending .... and now turning up dead, hanged.
I recall Y0kel posting about this at the time the weird videos went and out and later when he went back. Can't remember what his opinion about most likely outcome was.
Edward Snowden now seems to have entered "expendable" territory and is making a bit of a mug of himself protesting Putin's violations of free and private communications online. Going from America to Russia if state coercion and control of the internet is your bugbear always stank of "frying pan to fire". Wonder if he will do himself a favour and shut up.
Reminds me of the story of a Soviet defector (a colonel?) who changed his mind, went back, made a press conference denouncing the US. And then ended badly....
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
I bloody well hope not. We are better than this...
The Aussies have got it right
It's a fair warning. Does murali_s think once illegal immigrants have entered the country they should just get a free ride? There are legal channels for a reason...
And what the people really don't like is when those who follow the process get knocked back, while those who ignore the rules and just turn up in a boat have the red carpet rolled out for them.
There was a serious problem with thousands of deaths a year on unseaworthy and overloaded boats trying to get from Asia to Australia - the zero tolerance policy of the Aussies is literally saving thousands of lives a year.
And what could be more compassionate than that?
You have no soul. Hundreds of salt water crocodiles have been deprived of their favourite lunch/dinner/breakfast. Have you no heart?
For those who don't get the joke - the people smugglers would dump their cargos (when they actually made it to land) in the most remote place they could find.
Wandering around Australia's tropical coast is not something even experts do lightly. You need to know what you are doing and be well equipped. Otherwise you are lunch
'The problem with having a second elected chamber is the issue of primacy. They will both suppose to be the voice of the people.'
What's wrong with keeping the current status quo with 300 elected representatives or whatever you want to call them. Some specialist non elected representatives also OK but without voting rights.
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
'The problem with having a second elected chamber is the issue of primacy. They will both suppose to be the voice of the people.'
What's wrong with keeping the current status quo with 300 elected representatives or whatever you want to call them. Some specialist non elected representatives also OK but without voting rights.
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
'Your opinion. Most compassionate and civilised people understand that the Aussie approach is thoroughly despicable. Ask Human Rights Watch and the like.'
Bollocks, it's what the Australian people in a 'civilised' country want, if the human rights brigade want to it change let them get elected first,otherwise just feck off.
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
The name could be kept of course but it reflects the rightwing of the Tories splitting off to join Carswellite UKIP in the Freedom Party or Woolfeite UKIP in the Patriots Party. Labour will also split, with the Corbynites in the Solidarity Party (perhaps with the Greens eventually too) while moderate Labour joins with the LDs in the Progressive Party
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
Trump staging a recovery in betting markets, my view:
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
The name could be kept of course but it reflects the rightwing of the Tories splitting off to join Carswellite UKIP in the Freedom Party or Woolfeite UKIP in the Patriots Party. Labour will also split, with the Corbynites in the Solidarity Party (perhaps with the Greens eventually too) while moderate Labour joins with the LDs in the Progressive Party
Comments
TBH, I think they were all just f##ked from the Tour de France. Thomas was really struggling on the climbs to stay with the leading bunch, even before Nibali attacked. In a Tour de France stage that isn't normally enough to break Thomas, it requires 3-4 of the very best going 100% to the max to make him blow up.
Labour leader urged to explain £10,000 raised for his 2015 campaign at dinner organised by Palestinian group
A Palestinian group whose founder once praised the militant Islamist group Hamas held a fundraising dinner at which it collected £10,000 for Jeremy Corbyn’s last leadership campaign, documents seen by the Observer reveal
Friends of al-Aqsa gave Corbyn’s team a cheque for £10,000 in August 2015, an investigation by this newspaper has found, although the gift has never been made public. Any donation above £7,500 should be declared to the Electoral Commission.
Corbyn’s campaign said it did not declare the donation because its bank subsequently rejected the cheque, as it was made out to the wrong person. A spokesman for Corbyn was unable to explain on Saturday what then happened to the cash raised. A spokesman said: “I’m told a second cheque may have been sent, but this was not received by the campaign.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/06/jeremy-corbyn-campaign-donation-palestine?CMP=twt_gu
They work and are cost effective - even when only used on the level of preventing crime.
Commonly, the anti-prison advocates state that it costs 30K to lock someone up for a year - then contrast that with the petty amounts stolen etc.
In fact, the cost of crime is vastly more than the 20 quid someone gets for a stolen car stereo or whatever. Even a simple magistrates court case - say a basic theft - will cost 5 figures... lawyers, police time, witness time, effects on victims etc.
So, locking up the habitual criminals saves a fortune. Nearly all the crime that affects people in an every day way is done by serial offenders.
One of the reasons for the big drop in crime was sneaking through the coalition (under the Lib Dems noses) the following measure - stopping bail for those caught committing crimes *while on bail*. Previously, the habituals would be caught, bailed, caught, bailed etc. Some of them achieved double digit levels of bail, previously.
There has been a stabilization of Hillary's lead at around 5 points in my daily tracking average since Wednesday, and there is a picture emerging that Trump's campaign actually exists, so there is some good news for him that warrants that small recovery.
Smith crashing again in betting markets, my view:
I don't know why, the picture hasn't changed, Smith is a goner as usual but only now has the market found out about it ?
Last info I had was Corbyn beating Smith by 60-25 two weeks ago by someone working at Smith's phonebanks, since then I can only imagine it's been down hill for Smith especially after a pretty bad performance in the debate.
Anyway, it was always a mystery for me as to why was Smith regarded that high in the past on the markets.
http://www.politico.eu/article/two-belgian-police-officers-attacked-with-machete/
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0066549/quotes?item=qt0456844
By God, that man does war honor.
Really, it's crap
Mexico has rubbish demographics, dysfunctional politics, and little industry outside its declining energy business. It will not be sixth in the world.
Nigeria is also utterly dependent on oil exports. It won't be ahead of the UK. Or France. Or Italy.
Brazil. Lovely country. Economy totally dependent on the export of commodities too.
Russia. Declining population. Exports of products other than oil and gas are in decline. Exports of non commodity products are less than a third of Belgium's. And falling.
Japan. Demographic disaster zone.
I'd be happy to bet that the UK, Germany and even France will be bigger economies than Nigeria, Mexico, Brazil and Russia in 2050.
Mind you, the evidence is that the biggest factor in rehabilitation is age - the habituals are typically young. When they get to their mid thirties they tend to drop out of crime - it's not generally a profitable career. A study the Economist did a while back suggested that the average gang member in the US made rather less than working part time at McDonalds....
How to stop the boats - Australian style..... https://t.co/w7qnmUqX6R
The inclusion of Nigeria does make a LOL moment.
There's a lot more to GDP than population and commodities.
Divy up the costs of the justice system per case and you will see what I mean.
Not tied up. Just a future (potential) liability.
Assuming both sides trust each other.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/3976/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-latest-wh2016-and-lab-leadership-betting#latest
Less than £10,000 (which is what you reckon for even the simplest magistrate case) and you pay my £100. More, and I pay you.
There May be trouble ahead.
Theresa May plots drastic House of Lords overhaul after David Cameron’s resignation honours list sparks outrage
The problem with doing those sums would be coming up with an honest way of dividing the non-direct costs between the cases. One of the giant fraud cases, lasting years, with silks all over the place, vs Fred pleading guilty to assault at the magistrates...
Hmmm.. could be an interest subject for a academic study. You could probably get an MPhil out of doing a good job on that.
Hmmmmm....
Return to hereditary peers only? Could sell that as "sack all the failed politicians".....
Any suggestions for an unpopular reform?
The total bill for the Department of Justice divided by the total number of cases tried in a year.
I wonder what a similar publication might have looked like in say 1925? Or even 1965?
* Allow the heridatries to die off. I understand why there was some "legitimate expectation" problem with abolishing them on the spot, but that's no reason to replace them when they die out.
*Abolish the Lords spiritual, but make clear that faith leaders are a valued part of the House of Lords and encourage them to seek life peerages.
* Follow through on encouraging members to retire. Consider how the peers who no longer contribute can be identified.
* Adopt a "two out one in" strategy, for the time being. The PM, LOTO, etc, can still put people forward, just tighter numbers. Consider what level is appropriate, perhaps 4-5 hundred.
I realise this is nothing radical, but I think it would straighten things out to a considerable extent
How to stop the boats - Australian style..... https://t.co/w7qnmUqX6R
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/06/theresa-may-to-end-ban-on-new-grammar-schools/
Too many people start their thinking of Lords reform from the wrong end, try to force the earlier questions to fit their preconceived notion of how the process of getting people into the Lords should work.
Personally while in my heart I know it is not really right for anyone not elected to hold a position of such potential power and influence, I do think an appointed HoL done right, in an ideal world, has plenty to recommend it - a revising chamber full of the most notable of politicians, but also those who would not normally seek election and have much to contribute legislatively, from business, charity, religion, military, law, civil service etc - but given the practice would always become corrupted, maybe just giving in and going full elected is the way to go, as it'll happen eventually.
There does seem little reason why the Hereditaries keep getting replaced. Several former members or prospective members of the HoL took up the opportunity to be elected into office when they got the chance, and even after that they could get back into the HoL with a Life Peerage on top of their hereditary peerage, so no hereditary peer need be barred from governmental work if they want. And since most already don't get a place in the House of Peers, it doesn't diminish the nature of the heriditaries more than is already the case.
From your suggestions I would say:
*There should be no need to wait to abolish the heriditaries - I don't know why only that small number was set to remain in the late 90s, or why the number is fixed, but it's been nearly 20 years since the bulk were removed, the others have been given fair warning.
*Abolishing the Lords Spiritual in such a fashion works for me - no objection to a Peerage to a few, but automatic?
*I'd go further - councillors are excluded from office if they do not attend at least one meeting in 6 months unless granted an exemption eg for illness. Given the HoL is much more nationally important, stricter rules should be in place - we want people who would not necessarily stand for election and all the pressures of that, but you need to show willing and show up a certain amount. If you don't or cannot, you should be excluded, not merely encouraged to resign. You can keep the title though, if all they want is the gong.
*Probably the most likely way to get some agreement I guess.
The Canadian women's fencing uniform is wonderfully terrifying and sci-fi. https://t.co/i7IQ6JpHEK
That said I enjoy taking summaries of such a position and extrapolating it to other, ridiculous, scenarios. 'You have to respect the decision people made', they say, and we shouldn't seek to reverse that, but what about you seeking to oppose a government that was elected?
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/The-Criminal-Justice-system-landscape-review-summary1.pdf
from here
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/471625/costs-per-place.pdf
prison is
£2,804,394,939, so take that off
from
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/533097/criminal-court-statistics-jan-mar-2016.pdf
page 8 ....
we have 304,300 magistrates court cases and 46,500 in Crown court ?? Crudely add that together (yes, I know, all cases start in the magistrates court)
So we end up with 40K per case.
OK - what did I do wrong?
There was a serious problem with thousands of deaths a year on unseaworthy and overloaded boats trying to get from Asia to Australia - the zero tolerance policy of the Aussies is literally saving thousands of lives a year.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/08/donald-trump-ups-game-hires-firm-behind-brexit-win/#st_refDomain=&st_refQuery=
"Cambridge Analytica is a marketing firm that specializes going after first-time voters and those who feel left out of the process – the typical Trump supporter.
The Wrap reported:
Donald Trump and his team have upped their game to win the race for the White House by hiring the company that got the Brexit message to millions, resulting in the split of Great Britain from the European Union.
Cambridge Analytica is a marketing film that targets voters (and potential donors) based on their unconscious psychological biases.
The strategic communications company also worked with former GOP candidates Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and the “Leave.EU” campaign in the United Kingdom. According to the Daily Beast, Cambridge Analytica “went after first-time voters and those who felt left out of the political process, the kinds of people that Trump was successful bringing to the polls in primary elections.”
Sad end to that very weird tale about the Iranian nuclear scientist who defected to the US/claimed to have been kidnapped and drugged by the US (depending on which of several very odd videos he put out) and went back to Iran to a huge public celebration as a hero (much to the humiliation of the US) before vanishing again, imprisoned at a military facility, contact with family ending .... and now turning up dead, hanged.
I recall Y0kel posting about this at the time the weird videos went and out and later when he went back. Can't remember what his opinion about most likely outcome was.
Edward Snowden now seems to have entered "expendable" territory and is making a bit of a mug of himself protesting Putin's violations of free and private communications online. Going from America to Russia if state coercion and control of the internet is your bugbear always stank of "frying pan to fire". Wonder if he will do himself a favour and shut up.
http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/economy/the-world-in-2050.html
https://twitter.com/montie/status/761940870568509441
For those who don't get the joke - the people smugglers would dump their cargos (when they actually made it to land) in the most remote place they could find.
Wandering around Australia's tropical coast is not something even experts do lightly. You need to know what you are doing and be well equipped. Otherwise you are lunch
'The problem with having a second elected chamber is the issue of primacy. They will both suppose to be the voice of the people.'
What's wrong with keeping the current status quo with 300 elected representatives or whatever you want to call them. Some specialist non elected representatives also OK but without voting rights.
'Your opinion. Most compassionate and civilised people understand that the Aussie approach is thoroughly despicable. Ask Human Rights Watch and the like.'
Bollocks, it's what the Australian people in a 'civilised' country want, if the human rights brigade want to it change let them get elected first,otherwise just feck off.