politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary Clinton appears to be doing much better in polls co

Second like Trump.

Fourth like Stein.

tlg86 said:

Almost certainly there is an element of Shy Trump, but I doubt it will be enough for him to come back and win. Not sure about other candidates, but what's the lowest share of the vote obtained by a winning candidate since the war? I see Bill Clinton got 43% in 1992 - could Hillary win with a lower share this time around?

Which third party candidate is realistically going to take so much?

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

Trump cheating his small supporters allegedly:
"there is no option on Trump's website to cancel monthly contributions or remove your credit card information: Once you've set up a donation, you may only switch from one valid credit card to another."
http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/08/05/donald-trump-really-ripping-small-donors/
Jeremy Diamond ✔ @JDiamond1
Help, I set up a recurring contribution to Trump's campaign & want to cancel it: (cc: @realDonaldTrump)
2:48 AM - 4 Aug 2016 · Florida, USA, United States

HurstLlama said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

But 'the other way' could be either a Trump win or a Hillary landslide - and either outcome is still a possibility.

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

HYUFD said:

Ringo Starr voted for Brexit
http://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/celebrity-news/ringo-starr-reveals-he-voted-for-brexit-i-didn-t-see-the-european-union-going-anywhere-a3312711.html

“And now Scotland wants to leave and Wales wants to leave. Then it will be Devon. God knows where it will end.”

“The US is my town. America is my town.”

A vote of confidence in Brexit Britain if ever I've heard it...

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

HYUFD said:

Ringo Starr voted for Brexit
http://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/celebrity-news/ringo-starr-reveals-he-voted-for-brexit-i-didn-t-see-the-european-union-going-anywhere-a3312711.html

After Brexit, Thomas the Tank Engine learned that he would no longer be working with his friends like Ivan the Polish Loco....The fat controller was very annoyed, as he could no longer employ all the Eastern European trains who did lots of runs the British engines didn't want to do, and were willing to do them for less money while living 14 to a shed.

HurstLlama said:

david_herdson said:

HurstLlama said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

But 'the other way' could be either a Trump win or a Hillary landslide - and either outcome is still a possibility.

Full respect but you might want to check on the meaning of consensus, Mr. Herdson. That said perhaps I might need to refine the Llama Hypothesis to "The Majority of Opinion on PB is usually wrong". Don't know, I think the original is better.

The consensus, to the extent that there is one, is a comfortable Hillary win of about 5-8% isn't it? So an outlier either way would still satisfy your hypothesis.

HurstLlama said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

Worked well for me recently, certainly.

ISIS head of Europe terror attacks and Paris ‘mastermind’ defects group and flees Syria... taking Islamic State top secrets with him

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3725155/ISIS-s-French-Director-External-Operations-alleged-mastermind-Paris-attacks-thought-defected-Turkey.html

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

The whole fuss about these muslim soldiers parents rather reminds me of the fuss over Farages migration poster that there was such a hoo hah over before the referendum.

Appals those who wont vote for you and makes those that will more likely to vote but less likely to admit to that intention.

HurstLlama said:

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

I'm not sure that's true. The PB consensus was right for the French Presidential (2011?), the London Mayoral 2016 and the AV Referendum 2011. It was dodgy on the London Mayoral (2011?), UK GE 2015, and EU Referendum 2016, although those elections were close. There are also cases of individuals making good predictions in advance, notably Rod Crosby and UK GE 2015 (who predicted it over six months prior and held that view against opposition).

I think PB is good at predicting who will come first in an election if and only if the margin of victory is on the order of 10%. Whilst that's not a *great* record, it's better than random chance.

It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...

viewcode said:

HurstLlama said:

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

I'm not sure that's true. The PB consensus was right for the French Presidential (2011?), the London Mayoral 2016 and the AV Referendum 2011. It was dodgy on the London Mayoral (2011?), UK GE 2015, and EU Referendum 2016, although those elections were close. There are also cases of individuals making good predictions in advance, notably Rod Crosby and UK GE 2015 (who predicted it over six months prior and held that view against opposition).

I think PB is good at predicting who will come first in an election if and only if the margin of victory is on the order of 10%. Whilst that's not a *great* record, it's better than random chance.

It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...

You mean PB makes up it's opinion based on the polls, and then makes the calls based on results ?

FrancisUrquhart said:

neighbour Parmjit Singh, a BBC radio DJ known as 'DJ Precious' on the Asian network, said he had known 'impressionable' Bulhan for seven years, adding: 'His mental health problems are a scapegoat.'

The 36-year-old said: 'They said he had mental health issues but that was not the boy I knew.

'The news of his mental illness is completely new, we never heard that. Honestly, I think his mental health problems are a scapegoat.'

'I think peer pressure, hanging around with gangs. He wasn't working, he was hanging around with Somalian boys and I think they had possible links to serious ISIS people - not directly, but they see all this stuff and are inspired by it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3725136/Russell-Square-knifeman-stabbed-American-tourist-death-devastated-husband-tried-kill-THREE-times-year.html

Somebody didn't get the memo.

And the BBC news website still won't name him - even though he has just been charged.

It all stinks

Harry Enten of 538 looks at the prospect of Georgia as a swing state :

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-georgia-becoming-a-battleground-state/

Speedy said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

ISIS head of Europe terror attacks and Paris ‘mastermind’ defects group and flees Syria... taking Islamic State top secrets with him

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3725155/ISIS-s-French-Director-External-Operations-alleged-mastermind-Paris-attacks-thought-defected-Turkey.html

Is there a betting market for which country will abduct him first ?

What about a market for which countries spooks he was working for all along?

williamglenn said:

Speedy said:

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Or it's a signal that the current polling woe is overdone. Trump can rebound from this.

I don't know, even if he rebounds he is so deep under than even ex-KKK leaders are more popular than him with minorities.

Look he's getting 1-2% of african americans and less than 10% of those under the age of 30 in the opinion polls, that's about what UKIP gets in Britain.

But Trump is running in a 2 way presidential race, not a multiparty parliamentary race, with UKIP numbers he's dead.

From the previous thread SeanT said:
"Has anyone else tried Amazon Fresh? It's incredible - they deliver food and booze, groceries and staples - to your door, within a specific HOUR, on the same day as you order.

Their wine selection alone is better than any online supermarket. Prices are super-competitive.

They're gonna slaughter the competition, starting with Ocado."

Well, the old ways are good too. Ten quid will get you from the Bedford market as much fruit, vegetables & eggs as you can carry, in five or six bags.

As likely that Trump has "supporters" that are happy to pretend to stick it to Hillary when it doesn't matter -- in a poll -- but decline to do so to a real person.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

The whole fuss about these muslim soldiers parents rather reminds me of the fuss over Farages migration poster that there was such a hoo hah over before the referendum.

Appals those who wont vote for you and makes those that will more likely to vote but less likely to admit to that intention.

You are seriously misjudging this one. Trying to view Trump trough the Brexit prism is a non starter.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

I don't think they are actually shy.

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Though Trump probably rates better with white working class voters than Duke, Trump is not going to retire now especially with the debates to come

Anymore than vote leave were going to throw the towel in after the Obamagasm.

Apparently it was all over for Leave after Obama intervened.

Back in the real world it pissed a whole bunch of key voters off.

I think it almost goes without saying that Shy Trumpers (the SBDs) will be a factor in this election and that Clinton's lead is definitely less than 5% at the moment. I think the swing voters are the 10% in the middle who are trying to work out if either of the two candidates is as bad as they're being painted. So I think positive advertising might be more effective than negative advertising, for a change.

viewcode said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

The whole fuss about these muslim soldiers parents rather reminds me of the fuss over Farages migration poster that there was such a hoo hah over before the referendum.

Appals those who wont vote for you and makes those that will more likely to vote but less likely to admit to that intention.

I think there is some truth in that *generally*, but in one specific instance you mention - ThatBloodyPoster - it may not be. If Clarke/Goodwin/Whitely are correct (see here) and LEAVE were winning all along, then the Jo Cox murder and TBP may have been one of the few things that did cause a swing to REMAIN in the last few days.

However your wider point (that people are less willing to admit to a socially unacceptable opinion in a poll and this is a big problem with polls) is pretty uncontroversial at this point.

Yes the analogy is not exact - but this is the equivalent of Farage v Cherie Blair for UK president and in such a contest Farage would do far better than he would do in any general election.

It would all come down to how many small c conservatives would then vote Farage with Gritted Teeth and how many left wingers and momentum types would vote Cherie with gritted teeth and how many would sit on their hands or vote for independent also rans.

MP_SE said:

Apparently it was all over for Leave after Obama intervened.

Back in the real world it pissed a whole bunch of key voters off.

The "over for Leave" lasted from the speech itself to the first polls after the speech (36 hours?), which showed that the Obama bounce predicted by REMAIN was simply non-existent and that the opposite was in fact the case.

Alistair said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

The whole fuss about these muslim soldiers parents rather reminds me of the fuss over Farages migration poster that there was such a hoo hah over before the referendum.

Appals those who wont vote for you and makes those that will more likely to vote but less likely to admit to that intention.

You are seriously misjudging this one. Trying to view Trump trough the Brexit prism is a non starter.

I should have thought that any attempt to judge US politics through a UK prism is daft.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

I don't think they are actually shy.

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Though Trump probably rates better with white working class voters than Duke, Trump is not going to retire now especially with the debates to come

Anymore than vote leave were going to throw the towel in after the Obamagasm.

To be fair, that intervention didn't shift the polls ten points to Remain. If anything, it nudged them the other way.

But I agree, Trump will see it through to November.

HurstLlama said:

Alistair said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

The whole fuss about these muslim soldiers parents rather reminds me of the fuss over Farages migration poster that there was such a hoo hah over before the referendum.

Appals those who wont vote for you and makes those that will more likely to vote but less likely to admit to that intention.

You are seriously misjudging this one. Trying to view Trump trough the Brexit prism is a non starter.

I should have thought that any attempt to judge US politics through a UK prism is daft.

C2DEs being utterly pissed off with the establishment is not exactly unique to Britain.

Alistair said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

The whole fuss about these muslim soldiers parents rather reminds me of the fuss over Farages migration poster that there was such a hoo hah over before the referendum.

Appals those who wont vote for you and makes those that will more likely to vote but less likely to admit to that intention.

You are seriously misjudging this one. Trying to view Trump trough the Brexit prism is a non starter.

The similarity is that Trump represents something that (our) media class cannot comprehend the appeal of. I can only comment on this from afar but Trump's rise has been met with complete incredulity from the media over here. In some cases the media has gone out of it's way to misrepresent what Trump has actually said. An example would be Trump's comments along the lines of "I wonder if the Russians can find those 30,000 missing emails?" This was reported as Trump calling for the Russians to hack the Democrats when in actual fact he was scoring (successfully) a point about the email scandal.

I don't necessarily condone this sort of politicking but the trick for the radical right politician is to lure your opponent into denouncing you as a liar or a racist or something else that would be unequivocally damaging if people they thought it were the case. Leave/Farage played this game very well in the EU vote. The £350m a week claim was a classic and the criticisms of the Remain side simply made them look as though they thought giving away £180m a week was absolutely fine. The poster was a riskier move, and perhaps it did lose leave votes (we'll never know, of course), but Farage knows the game. Whether or not him and his team went for an image that would goad the know-it alls into wetting themselves over the similarities to a Nazi poster I don't know. But once again, the criticisms of the Remain side could have given the impression that they didn't want to debate the substantive issue (the potential for refugees to get EU passports and therefore have a right to move to Britain). Instead, they did what comes naturally to them and branded Farage and the rest of the Leave side as racists.

With the soldier's parents, however, I can't see how this helps Trump. Sure, there will be some who will defend Trump through anything, but I don't think he's done himself any favours and has the impression of not being in control. Clinton's line about Trump being riled by a Tweet is very clever. Maybe Trump can pull it back, but I think it's unlikely that he can win.

HurstLlama said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HurstLlama said:

Alistair said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

The whole fuss about these muslim soldiers parents rather reminds me of the fuss over Farages migration poster that there was such a hoo hah over before the referendum.

Appals those who wont vote for you and makes those that will more likely to vote but less likely to admit to that intention.

You are seriously misjudging this one. Trying to view Trump trough the Brexit prism is a non starter.

I should have thought that any attempt to judge US politics through a UK prism is daft.

C2DEs being utterly pissed off with the establishment is not exactly unique to Britain.

I agree, Sir, but there is a lot more to politics than that one item. So many people in the UK seem to think they understand US politics, possibly because we, sort of, share the same language but don't seem to appreciate the very real and vast cultural differences.

Well said. The similarities are seductive, but wrong.

logical_song said:

Essexit said:

The level of smug sneering and hatred towards Trump supporters is similar to that faced by Leave supporters a couple of months ago. I'll pay attention to online polls - on that basis Clinton is ahead but not by that much. A big enough slip on her part could make this competitive.

Trump cheating his small supporters allegedly:
"there is no option on Trump's website to cancel monthly contributions or remove your credit card information: Once you've set up a donation, you may only switch from one valid credit card to another."
http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/08/05/donald-trump-really-ripping-small-donors/
Jeremy Diamond ✔ @JDiamond1
Help, I set up a recurring contribution to Trump's campaign & want to cancel it: (cc: @realDonaldTrump)
2:48 AM - 4 Aug 2016 · Florida, USA, United States

Wow. That could be huge!

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

I don't think they are actually shy.

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Though Trump probably rates better with white working class voters than Duke, Trump is not going to retire now especially with the debates to come

That's precisely what I'm afraid of if I where on Trump's campaign.

Since we are not sure Trump is a sane person there is a very high chance the debates are going to be a disaster.

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to defend himself from Hillary and the Moderators without making a fool of himself ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to articulate his policies in a popular way ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to attack Hillary effectively ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to not attack anyone but Hillary ?

Trump won several debates in the primaries and is generally better on TV than Hillary even though she is on paper a better debater. The first debate can change a lot, in 2012 Romney went from about 6 points behind to a lead after winning big in debate 1, though he failed to consolidate it in later debates it cut Obama's final victory margin in half

viewcode said:

HurstLlama said:

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

I'm not sure that's true. The PB consensus was right for the French Presidential (2011?), the London Mayoral 2016 and the AV Referendum 2011. It was dodgy on the London Mayoral (2011?), UK GE 2015, and EU Referendum 2016, although those elections were close. There are also cases of individuals making good predictions in advance, notably Rod Crosby and UK GE 2015 (who predicted it over six months prior and held that view against opposition).

I think PB is good at predicting who will come first in an election if and only if the margin of victory is on the order of 10%. Whilst that's not a *great* record, it's better than random chance.

It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...

Do u know if Rodcrosby made a prediction on who would win Trump or Clinton ?

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

I don't think they are actually shy.

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Though Trump probably rates better with white working class voters than Duke, Trump is not going to retire now especially with the debates to come

That's precisely what I'm afraid of if I where on Trump's campaign.

Since we are not sure Trump is a sane person there is a very high chance the debates are going to be a disaster.

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to defend himself from Hillary and the Moderators without making a fool of himself ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to articulate his policies in a popular way ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to attack Hillary effectively ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to not attack anyone but Hillary ?

Nobody knows, which is why they will be must-see TV.

foxinsoxuk said:

Dadge said:

I think it almost goes without saying that Shy Trumpers (the SBDs) will be a factor in this election and that Clinton's lead is definitely less than 5% at the moment. I think the swing voters are the 10% in the middle who are trying to work out if either of the two candidates is as bad as they're being painted. So I think positive advertising might be more effective than negative advertising, for a change.

The polls in Brexit were not far off, indeed quite a few were narrowly for Leave towards the end. The wish to not believe polls that do not agree with ones predjuces is a strong one.

In reality Hillary appears to be building a commanding lead and Trump imploding in chaos. A Hillary landslide is far more likely than a Trump win.

This has all happened in the last 10 days. Prior to that Trump had jumped back into the lead in the polling averages for only the second time and Hillary was being booed by her own party.

It's far too early to write Trump off because of a few campaign gaffes.

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

I don't think they are actually shy.

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Though Trump probably rates better with white working class voters than Duke, Trump is not going to retire now especially with the debates to come

That's precisely what I'm afraid of if I where on Trump's campaign.

Since we are not sure Trump is a sane person there is a very high chance the debates are going to be a disaster.

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to defend himself from Hillary and the Moderators without making a fool of himself ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to articulate his policies in a popular way ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to attack Hillary effectively ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to not attack anyone but Hillary ?

Trump won several debates in the primaries and is generally better on TV than Hillary even though she is on paper a better debater. The first debate can change a lot, in 2012 Romney went from about 6 points behind to a lead after winning big in debate 1, though he failed to consolidate it in later debates it cut Obama's final victory margin in half

We are talking about a debate in front of a national audience, not a republican one.

Trump was very good for a republican audience that distrusts the media and it's political leaders, and is hungry for red meat and an alpha male after 30 years of green salads and bland.

But a national audience is the reverse, the average republican voter is a male age 60 living in a small town or village, the average american voter is female age 40 living in small cities.

One is WWE, the other is The View:

http://abc.go.com/shows/the-view

Trump must win the audience of the above TV show.

nunu said:

viewcode said:

HurstLlama said:

Might I gently remind you of the Llama Hypothesis - the consensus on PB is usually wrong. For gambling purposes take the consensus on here and bet the other way.

I'm not sure that's true. The PB consensus was right for the French Presidential (2011?), the London Mayoral 2016 and the AV Referendum 2011. It was dodgy on the London Mayoral (2011?), UK GE 2015, and EU Referendum 2016, although those elections were close. There are also cases of individuals making good predictions in advance, notably Rod Crosby and UK GE 2015 (who predicted it over six months prior and held that view against opposition).

I think PB is good at predicting who will come first in an election if and only if the margin of victory is on the order of 10%. Whilst that's not a *great* record, it's better than random chance.

It is also good at identifying points during an overnight election count when the outcome becomes predictable and the bookies are taking bets - eg the 1am identification of LEAVE as a winner for EU2016 and the 3/4am identification of a CON majority as a winner in UKGE2015. Unfortunately to profit from this requires large sums, an online betting account, and a secure & reliable overnight internet connection, none of which I have...

Do u know if Rodcrosby made a prediction on who would win Trump or Clinton ?

Rod was mostly tweeting episodes of Trumps speeches with Wagnerian music, in a US version of The Triumph of the Will. I do not think that he made a formal prediction, but he seemed to think it possible. I am more inclined to believe JackWs demographic analysis.

I also note that Hillary did particularly well in the Primaries in the Southern states that have been Republican for years, apart from under that other Clinton.

The Black and Hispanic voters here are not going to vote Trump and the rednecks and hillbillies are not too keen on philandering Yankees. I suspect that the way that Hillary stands by her man plays well to this audience. Hillary will do well here and take some states.

williamglenn said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Dadge said:

I think it almost goes without saying that Shy Trumpers (the SBDs) will be a factor in this election and that Clinton's lead is definitely less than 5% at the moment. I think the swing voters are the 10% in the middle who are trying to work out if either of the two candidates is as bad as they're being painted. So I think positive advertising might be more effective than negative advertising, for a change.

The polls in Brexit were not far off, indeed quite a few were narrowly for Leave towards the end. The wish to not believe polls that do not agree with ones predjuces is a strong one.

In reality Hillary appears to be building a commanding lead and Trump imploding in chaos. A Hillary landslide is far more likely than a Trump win.

This has all happened in the last 10 days. Prior to that Trump had jumped back into the lead in the polling averages for only the second time and Hillary was being booed by her own party.

It's far too early to write Trump off because of a few campaign gaffes.

There are 3 months to go and alsorts can happen, so it is not all over by any means. Hillary has an effective machine and is a grafter. Trump has at best lukewarm support, and many trying to distance themselves from his implosion.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

I don't think they are actually shy.

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Though Trump probably rates better with white working class voters than Duke, Trump is not going to retire now especially with the debates to come

Anymore than vote leave were going to throw the towel in after the Obamagasm.

Most of them did, however, concede defeat - shortly before they won.

2016 has also taught me that baby red squirrels are called kittens....

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

I don't think they are actually shy.

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Though Trump

That's precisely what I'm afraid of if I where on Trump's campaign.

Since we are

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to attack Hillary effectively ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to not attack anyone but Hillary ?

Trump won several debates in the primaries anf

We are talking about a debate in front of a national audience, not a republican one.

Trump was very good for a republican audience that distrusts the media and it's political leaders, and is hungry for red meat and an alpha male after 30 years of green salads and bland.

But a national audience is the reverse, the average republican voter is a male age 60 living in a small town or village, the average american voter is female age 40 living in small cities.

One is WWE, the other is The View:

http://abc.go.com/shows/the-view

Trump must win the audience of the above TV show.

People said the same about Reagan in 1980 and interestingly in 1980 Jimmy Carter got a bigger bounce than Reagan, much as Hillary has done this year too.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/convention_bounces.php

It was only when Reagan convincingly won the first debate with great one liners like 'are you better off today than you were 4 years ago' that he took a clear poll lead. Indeed he moved from a 3 point deficit to a 3 point advantage after the debates. Trump, like Reagan, is also great at one liners and if he can portray himself as the strongman outsider America needs and tie Hillary to the establishment and more of the same anything is possible
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8YxFc_1b_0

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110674/Presidential-Debates-Rarely-GameChangers.aspx

IanB2 said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

I don't think they are actually shy.

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Though Trump probably rates better with white working class voters than Duke, Trump is not going to retire now especially with the debates to come

Anymore than vote leave were going to throw the towel in after the Obamagasm.

Most of them did, however, concede defeat - shortly before they won.

I would love it if in many years from now Farage let it be known that he put a large sum of money on Leave shortly after his concession speech.

MarqueeMark said:

2016 has also taught me that baby red squirrels are called kittens....

And that female capercaillies look like normal grouse.

MarqueeMark said:

2016 has also taught me that baby red squirrels are called kittens....

It is fairly easy to see red squirrels and their kittens on the Isle of Wight. The inbreds in the ghettos seem unable to catch and eat them. ;-)

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

HYUFD said:

Speedy said:

Alistair said:

JackW said:

Michigan - EPIC/MRA

Clinton 46 .. Trump 36

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Stwd_Survey_Aug2016_Media_Freq.pdf

that's a lot of shy trumpers.

I don't think they are actually shy.

But to give the idea how deep has Trump dug himself in, the ex-KKK leader David Duke who is running for republican Senator in Louisiana, is getting more african american votes than Trump:

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article93913952.html

"David Duke rates higher than Donald Trump with black voters"

It's the signal Trump is waiting for his retirement, hopefully he will listen.

Though Trump

That's precisely what I'm afraid of if I where on Trump's campaign.

Since we are

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to attack Hillary effectively ?

Does Trump have the discipline and the brains to not attack anyone but Hillary ?

Trump won several debates in the primaries anf

We are talking about a debate in front of a national audience, not a republican one.

Trump was very good for a republican audience that distrusts the media and it's political leaders, and is hungry
http://abc.go.com/shows/the-view

Trump must win the audience of the above TV show.

People said the same about Reagan in 1980 and interestingly in 1980 Jimmy Carter got a bigger bounce than Reagan, much as Hillary has done this year too.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/convention_bounces.php

It was only when Reagan convincingly won the first debate with great one liners like 'are you better off today than you were 4 years ago' that he took a clear poll lead. Indeed he moved from a 3 point deficit to a 3 point advantage after the debates. Trump, like Reagan, is also great at one liners and if he can portray himself as the strongman outsider America needs and tie Hillary to the establishment and more of the same anything is possible
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8YxFc_1b_0

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110674/Presidential-Debates-Rarely-GameChangers.aspx

There was only one debate in 1980 between Reagan and Carter and that was at the end of the campaign.

He debated with Anderson too and ate into his voteshare (perhaps Trump can do the same with Johnson). It was the debates which won it for Reagan that year

Scott_P said:

@BDStanley: Oh dear. https://t.co/sh6kNA4j5D

Probably started by a sore loser remainer.

Does Jezza still have FFJ camped on his roof?