politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting moves to Hillary following post convention poll
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Hmm, looks like it's my fault...!TheScreamingEagles said:
Michael Foster, the chap who took the NEC to court, is Jewish.FrancisUrquhart said:
What for? Has he been banging in about the holocaust again?MarkHopkins said:Jobabob said:
What is most notable is that the Trump rampers on here – RodCrosby and Speedy et al – have either disappeared entirely (Rod) or change their tune (Speedy).rcs1000 said:
Trump has a path, but it's a difficult one. I know everyone likes to compare it to Remain vs Leave, but really it's not. The similarity is that it is an insurgent political movement: but few of us who voted to take the UK out of the EU did so on the grounds that Nigel Farage would be best to run the country.Casino_Royale said:
We had data with clear Leave leads 10 days-2 weeks out, though. What was happening is that people were discounting those.Sunil_Prasannan said:Clinton v Trump graph looks a bit like REMAIN v LEAVE prior to Referendum night?
So far I'm not seeing the evidence Trump has a clear path here, so I don't think he's value at current prices. But, if the betting starts to seriously diverge from the evidence and straws in the wind, I will.
One profitable strategy for me, so far, on Trump has been to back him for modest amounts every time the market reacts to something outrageous he's said. But DYOR.
Back to the path.
Donald has to win the rust belt; and he has to do it on nakedly protectionist grounds. He has to persuade the people of Michigan that their car making jobs are coming back if they vote for him. (Disclaimer: they're not.) He has to persuade those hurt by globalisation that protectionism is the answer. (Disclaimer: it's not.)
The irony is that this would have been a lot easier if he hadn't alienated so many along the way. There are a lot of ex-Mexicans in the US who'd like to pull up the drawbridge. But they don't like it when Donald says that a judge of Hispanic origins wouldn't be able to officiate on a case involving him.
For that reason, I'm going to say predict that Donald doesn't make it. He might pick up Ohio and a few other rust belt states. But I think he'll struggle to flip Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico - and he might lose Arizona. Add New England and the West Coast to Hillary's total, and it simply doesn't leave much margin for error for Mr Trump.
@RodCrosby is currently banned, so that might explain his disappearance.
If you have a look at his last few comments, you might get a flavour of why Mike deployed the ban hammer.0 -
Is AfD arguing for Gerxit? The old AfD - admittedly before they changed and went all FN - was anti-Euro (and specifically anti-bailouts for Greece) but not particularly anti EU. Their original conception - when it was run by the sensible ex-IBM Germany CEO - was that the Euro was fine as a group of tightly integrated Northern European countries (Germany plus the Netherlands and Luxembourg) but should never have been extended beyond that point.MTimT said:
Yougov seems in this piece to be implying that the terms of Brexit will play a prominent role in the German and French national elections.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
I find that pretty hard to believe, except in the sense that Le Pen and AfD will be using Brexit to argue for Frexit and Gerxit, rather than demanding their governments be nasty to the UK.0 -
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If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.ReggieCide said:
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.williamglenn said:Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
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Mr. T, assuming the Lords don't keep us in.
[I don't think they will but their stance is indicative of some Remainers who won't accept a democratic choice].0 -
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
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My advise to Trump would have been to build a mock-up TV studio for training on the debates and TV interviews, with his family doing the role of the biased moderator and journalist (because his family is probably the only people he listens to and unable to fire in a fit of rage).
Or simply do what Hillary does, avoid the media and put the weight on advertising (but it costs money).0 -
Mr Llama, the current 'sod the EU' line seems to be, "You can't tell us when to leave! We'll stay as long as we please!"HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
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Two points. On a scale of 1-10 as suitable for POTUS Clinton probably ranks about 4. Trump however is probably -5.ThreeQuidder said:
Secondly she’s Obama’s unsuitable candidate!0 -
Quite so. The tragic thing is London does effectively do exactly that in mayoral polls – yet because of the absurd scheduling where they don't start counting until 9am the following morning the process drags on forever and amateurs call it hours before the networks. Sadiq was declared at some ungodly hour late on the Friday night last time, by which time the public was either asleep or propping up a bar somewhere. It was risible stuff.ThreeQuidder said:
If we counted by polling station as they do we could do the same. Though without practice it might go the same way as the referendum when PB called it hours before the networks.Jobabob said:
The vast majority of states are foregone conclusions (no-one is going to wait up for California, it being a DEM stronghold) so there is a science to the way they do things in the States.TheWhiteRabbit said:
A lot of calls made before rsults are in, even the outcome called early.surbiton said:
Indiana normally closes first at 6 pm. 11pm here. After that at midnight there are a few. By 1:00 quite a few Eastern states close. I think Kentucky closes early as well.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was in charge of PB on election night in 2012.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
When will the US results come in? Given the time zones, might it be at a civilised hour for those of us in Blighty?
The early results came out around 1am to 2am and we had a constant stream from then on.
I think we got the winner confirmed around 4am.
Curiously some states and media report state results whilst the polls are still open in said state.
It's like a chess match where despite there being 100 moves, someone tells you it's all over after fifty.
With the networks' teams of mathematicians and impressive statistical expertise they put our coverage to shame. They are able to call states well before all the votes are counted.
Would it that we run our election nights more like the Americans – they focus much more on the data and much less on talking heads. It's impressive stuff.
There has been the odd blunder (FL in the Bush era springs to mind) but generally they get it bang on well ahead of time.
We really do need to up our game here – it's amateurish, the way we do things.0 -
Mr Dancer, the Lords are hardly there by democratic choice!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. T, assuming the Lords don't keep us in.
[I don't think they will but their stance is indicative of some Remainers who won't accept a democratic choice].0 -
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
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Yes. But in this case they're correct. The US stepping back from the mutual defence provisions of NATO (and, as an aside Estonia has always honoured the 2% of GDP provision) does increase the possibility of something bad happening to the Baltics.williamglenn said:
If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.ReggieCide said:
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.williamglenn said:Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
Deterrents only work if they are credible.0 -
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Indeed. - A fact I’m sure most Americans are aware of.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Well to be fair at that point we did have Major Sharpe, that Irish Sergeant fella and the chosen men. Not forgetting good Mr. Hornblower of course.SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
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Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
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It seems to be catching all round. Didn't Cameron rerun the Scottish Indyref?williamglenn said:
If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.ReggieCide said:
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.williamglenn said:Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.0 -
A refund and a cancelled membership if they ask for one? If they really are committed to the party they won't ask, if they only joined to vote they may well do. What's not to like?david_herdson said:
Didn't know that, but on balance - and I'm not a lawyer - I'd have thought the latter. The NEC has the power to determine the rules but if membership has been sold on a false prospectus then I'd expect refund to be in order.BudG said:
Think this is slightly different David. Think this one will be based on contract law. The website where the people signed up said Join the Labour Party and vote in the leadership elections. The wording on the website was not changed until July.david_herdson said:
I doubt it. I'd expect the court to uphold the NEC's decision for much the same reason that they upheld the decision that Corbyn didn't need nominations: it was taken according to the rules by the competent body and was, if a little odd, not unduly discriminatory.BudG said:Final nail in the coffin for Owen Smith?
Labour leadership election
Harrison Grant has issued proceedings against the Labour Party on behalf of a number of new members who have been denied the opportunity to vote in the forthcoming leadership election. Following an order for an expedited hearing this case will be heard at the High Court in London Thursday 4th August
Would think they will win their case, but not sure if the court has the power to force the Labour Party to change their cut-off date, or whether they would simply tell them that they have to offer refunds to up to 130 thousand people who signed up since January0 -
Foxinsox will be running with the team Leicester Fossils.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think you are already in it if you log in to your fantasy footie account.... mind you, I could kick you out now that you remind me of last season's daylight robbery...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Linky linky? Or don't you want to be beat again?Scrapheap_as_was said:Did I mention the new fantasy football PB league is up again...
The Fossils was the original nickname of Leicester Fosse, which became Leicester City in 1920.
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''Whoever wins, we lose''
I'm trying to think of a person, or a set of policies, that might unite America.
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The Baltics have never been as important to Russia as the Ukraine. The risk of 'something bad' happening to them is overblown.rcs1000 said:
Yes. But in this case they're correct. The US stepping back from the mutual defence provisions of NATO (and, as an aside Estonia has always honoured the 2% of GDP provision) does increase the possibility of something bad happening to the Baltics.williamglenn said:
If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.ReggieCide said:
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.williamglenn said:Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
Deterrents only work if they are credible.
That said, having a US President who might be prepared to sit down with Putin and redraw the line across Europe would mean that things would get interesting...
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Yup - can see you in the league ready to go....foxinsoxuk said:
Foxinsox will be running with the team Leicester Fossils.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think you are already in it if you log in to your fantasy footie account.... mind you, I could kick you out now that you remind me of last season's daylight robbery...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Linky linky? Or don't you want to be beat again?Scrapheap_as_was said:Did I mention the new fantasy football PB league is up again...
The Fossils was the original nickname of Leicester Fosse, which became Leicester City in 1920.
Surely TSE isn't going to pass this year - not when he replicated his beloved Chelsea's performance in the PL so well in th PB league? [trolling overload]
this is the link for any new joiners too - 843320-227121
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/
It's free to play and the prizes are equally valuable....0 -
From what we've seen, May doesn't lack balls (I nearly gave that a capital!); we'll have to judge her motivation later.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
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I notice they are running the trump takes Russian money so will be mates with Putin angle a lot too... the fact the Clintons have had a bob or two (by bob or two insert 10s millions) from similar interesting individuals isnt the same apparently.williamglenn said:
If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.ReggieCide said:
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.williamglenn said:Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
Both are totally unsuitable to be President.0 -
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Best not piss them off lightly then.0 -
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?MarkHopkins said:Jobabob said:
What is most notable is that the Trump rampers on here – RodCrosby and Speedy et al – have either disappeared entirely (Rod) or change their tune (Speedy).rcs1000 said:
Trump has a path, but it's a difficult one. I know everyone likes to compare it to Remain vs Leave, but really it's not. The similarity is that it is an insurgent political movement: but few of us who voted to take the UK out of the EU did so on the grounds that Nigel Farage would be best to run the country.Casino_Royale said:
We had data with clear Leave leads 10 days-2 weeks out, though. What was happening is that people were discounting those.Sunil_Prasannan said:Clinton v Trump graph looks a bit like REMAIN v LEAVE prior to Referendum night?
So far I'm not seeing the evidence Trump has a clear path here, so I don't think he's value at current prices. But, if the betting starts to seriously diverge from the evidence and straws in the wind, I will.
One profitable strategy for me, so far, on Trump has been to back him for modest amounts every time the market reacts to something outrageous he's said. But DYOR.
Back to the path.
Donald has to win the rust belt; and he has to do it on nakedly protectionist grounds. He has to persuade the people of Michigan that their car making jobs are coming back if they vote for him. (Disclaimer: they're not.) He has to persuade those hurt by globalisation that protectionism is the answer. (Disclaimer: it's not.)
The irony is that this would have been a lot easier if he hadn't alienated so many along the way. There are a lot of ex-Mexicans in the US who'd like to pull up the drawbridge. But they don't like it when Donald says that a judge of Hispanic origins wouldn't be able to officiate on a case involving him.
For that reason, I'm going to say predict that Donald doesn't make it. He might pick up Ohio and a few other rust belt states. But I think he'll struggle to flip Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico - and he might lose Arizona. Add New England and the West Coast to Hillary's total, and it simply doesn't leave much margin for error for Mr Trump.
@RodCrosby is currently banned, so that might explain his disappearance.0 -
Republicans say Vote Clinton:Jobabob said:
No harm in pressing a point.taffys said:''Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.''
If Hillary is doing so well, why is he making this intervention?
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/01/politics/sally-bradshaw-jeb-bush-donald-trump-florida/
https://twitter.com/search?q=republican+says+vote+clinton&ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^search
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-new-york-republican-congressman-says-1470145575-htmlstory.html0 -
The second coming?taffys said:''Whoever wins, we lose''
I'm trying to think of a person, or a set of policies, that might unite America.0 -
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
It's a question of which is worse.ThreeQuidder said:
If we prove a success, more will want to follow then. As it is, even those tempted by the thought will, in initial confusion and claims of disaster, not be inclined to say yes to leavingScott_P said:@AlbertoNardelli: "Everyone will follow Britain, and want to leave the EU" https://t.co/RUsPrdtzn4
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Will divide sinners from the elect...ReggieCide said:
The second coming?taffys said:''Whoever wins, we lose''
I'm trying to think of a person, or a set of policies, that might unite America.0 -
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).ReggieCide said:
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?0 -
I think it was a Remainer arguing that Brexit was a bad thing...RobD said:
Who actually said that, given it is in quotation marks?Scott_P said:@AlbertoNardelli: "Everyone will follow Britain, and want to leave the EU" https://t.co/RUsPrdtzn4
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I would be more concerned about China over Hinkley Point etcfoxinsoxuk said:
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Best not piss them off lightly then.0 -
Two camps is better than a multiplicity of camps, or is that too camp?foxinsoxuk said:
Will divide sinners from the elect...ReggieCide said:
The second coming?taffys said:''Whoever wins, we lose''
I'm trying to think of a person, or a set of policies, that might unite America.0 -
http://order-order.com/2016/08/02/telegraph-offers-staff-free-hipster-scooters/
They better make sure they are securely locked away if Stephen woofe ever comes for a visit...0 -
Charles, whilst you are on:Charles said:And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.0 -
LOL.JosiasJessop said:
Charles, whilst you are on:Charles said:And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
A few post-its I guess like that from PB-ers.
I imagine @SeanT's fridge is a sea of yellow.0 -
Plenty of media speculation along the lines of “if Britain leaves, will others follow” don’t know if anyone actually used the quote, Alberto Nardelli has reported. – Guardian bod, nuff said.Charles said:
I think it was a Remainer arguing that Brexit was a bad thing...RobD said:
Who actually said that, given it is in quotation marks?Scott_P said:@AlbertoNardelli: "Everyone will follow Britain, and want to leave the EU" https://t.co/RUsPrdtzn4
0 -
Fuck off, that's not true. You keep peddling this bullshit becauae you're a raging federalist who is bitter about the people being sane enough to get out of there. We can trade freely with the EU and any country of our choosing once we leave.FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
No it isn't. That was the Remain characterisation of Leave's platform.rcs1000 said:
Fair pointMarkHopkins said:rcs1000 said:
But a coalition to do what?MaxPB said:
Indeed. I would guess at least a third of the Leave vote was driven by sovereignty and not wanting to be in the EU rather than immigration. I don't know what Trump offers that 15-17% of the US who would also be in that camp. The lack of pivot will kill him. I'm someone who may have considered voting for Trump in the primaries, but the rubbish about the Latino judge and his refusal to release hks tax return are issues that would make me sit it out. Additionally instead of toning down his rhetoric on Mexicans etc... he has ramped it up, which is irresponsible IMO. He is closer to Britain First than UKIP when it comes to immigration which means his appeal is too narrow.FF43 said:
The main difference is that a vote for Leave was a vote for an idea. A vote for Trump is a vote for the person
Brexit was won by a coalition, a similar coalition could be put together in the US, Trump is not the man to do it.
To reduce unskilled immigration to the US?
- well, they could get rid of the lottery, because that's basically the only way that unskilled immigrants legally get to the US
To build a wall?
- which ignores the fact that 90+% of undocumented workers simply overstayed the welcome on their tourist visa
To reform NAFTA?
- given the US controls NAFTA, it's hard to see what reform is wanted or needed, except for possibly stopping free trade altogether
The Donald Trump platform is simple: the reason real incomes have stagnated is because of someone else. It's not a credible platform for change.
But...
The Leave platform is simple: the reason for your problems is because of the EU. It's not a credible platform for change.
0 -
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EUReggieCide said:
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
You should try to restrict yourself to the superior social media channels.SeanT said:
Are you kidding? Social media is full of REMAINIACS moaning on about the result, still trying to reverse it, troubling deaf heaven with their bootless cries, blah blah.TOPPING said:
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).ReggieCide said:
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?0 -
We're already in the WTO. We just let the EU represent us. FF43 is just bitter and deluded.foxinsoxuk said:
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Best not piss them off lightly then.0 -
I have no idea!JosiasJessop said:
Charles, whilst you are on:Charles said:And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
Probably something to do with a bridge...0 -
Exactly so. The deal will be shoddy unless the EU do think we are prepared to walk awayHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Difference between May and Cameron is that I think the former could quite possibly threaten to do so, whereas the latter never would.
PM May winning GE2015 would probably have got a better deal and we'd probably have just narrowly voted to Remain.0 -
Quite. I've never seen a convincing argument from a free-trading Brexiteer as to why the left wing case against the EU is wrong.FF43 said:
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EUReggieCide said:
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
0 -
Not really relevant. The WTO has rules, as they exist now, we can play by those rules or not if the countries in the EU decide otherwise. Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU's most important countries, and they do have WTO obligations, what do you think the likely outcome will be.FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Honestly, some people on here seem never to have negotiated anything in their lives. In my working days I would love to have come up against them across the table, I would have secured a fantastic deal for my side.0 -
Is everyone who disagrees with you bitter, sad or deluded?MaxPB said:
We're already in the WTO. We just let the EU represent us. FF43 is just bitter and deluded.foxinsoxuk said:
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Best not piss them off lightly then.
Methinks a bit too much protesting and a bit of projection also.0 -
''The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EU''
|that's why they are among a host of countries clamouring for a trade deal with us, presumably.0 -
Bullshit again. Please tell me how HSBC UK can offer banking services to a German across the national border, nor via a subsidiary. Free market my arse. More federalist bullshit as always.FF43 said:
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EUReggieCide said:
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
After the abolition of slavery, it was bloody impossible to negotiate an equitable sharecropping contract with one's former owner. Therefore the abolition of slavery was a huge mistake. Discuss.SeanT said:
All these revelations of how difficult it is to extricate ourselves from the EU merely prove that we were right to quit. If we'd left it five more years, or ten, we'd have been too deeply enmeshed ever to escape.foxinsoxuk said:
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Best not piss them off lightly then.
We would have been doomed to EU membership for eternity.0 -
No, just the remain side who won't accept the result. People such as yourself. We won, you lost. Accept it. Your arguments were bullshit then and they still are now.TOPPING said:
Is everyone who disagrees with you bitter, sad or deluded?MaxPB said:
We're already in the WTO. We just let the EU represent us. FF43 is just bitter and deluded.foxinsoxuk said:
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Best not piss them off lightly then.
Methinks a bit too much protesting and a bit of projection also.0 -
Every voter knew why he or her was voting for whatever they voted for. It is typical Remaindered rhetoric to content that Remaindered voters knew better than Brexiters why they voted how they did, being far better educated don't you know.TOPPING said:
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).ReggieCide said:
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?
As for Remaindereds being "interested", that is self evidently true of anyone expressing an opinion. It's the starting point in formulating that opinion that I am referencing.0 -
As long as Sean's latest squeeze cleans behind the fridge I don't see a problem.....TOPPING said:
LOL.JosiasJessop said:
Charles, whilst you are on:Charles said:And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
A few post-its I guess like that from PB-ers.
I imagine @SeanT's fridge is a sea of yellow.0 -
Mr. Royale, it will be interesting to see how May does. Hard to say, at this stage.0
-
"Fuck off. You're bitter." Really?MaxPB said:
Fuck off, that's not true. You keep peddling this bullshit becauae you're a raging federalist who is bitter about the people being sane enough to get out of there. We can trade freely with the EU and any country of our choosing once we leave.FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
You are. Very bitter.FF43 said:
"Fuck off. You're bitter." Really?MaxPB said:
Fuck off, that's not true. You keep peddling this bullshit becauae you're a raging federalist who is bitter about the people being sane enough to get out of there. We can trade freely with the EU and any country of our choosing once we leave.FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
Indeed, the EU would have precisely the same number of votes in the WTO as the UK, and the UK will have far more natural allies on trade issues within the WTO membership than we currently have within the EU.HurstLlama said:
Not really relevant. The WTO has rules, as they exist now, we can play by those rules or not if the countries in the EU decide otherwise. Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU's most important countries, and they do have WTO obligations, what do you think the likely outcome will be.FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Honestly, some people on here seem never to have negotiated anything in their lives. In my working days I would love to have come up against them across the table, I would have secured a fantastic deal for my side.0 -
Luckyguy1983 said:
No it isn't. That was the Remain characterisation of Leave's platform.rcs1000 said:
Fair pointMarkHopkins said:rcs1000 said:
But a coalition to do what?MaxPB said:
Indeed. I would guess at least a third of the Leave vote was driven by sovereignty and not wanting to be in the EU rather than immigration. I don't know what Trump offers that 15-17% of the US who would also be in that camp. The lack of pivot will kill him. I'm someone who may have considered voting for Trump in the primaries, but the rubbish about the Latino judge and his refusal to release hks tax return are issues that would make me sit it out. Additionally instead of toning down his rhetoric on Mexicans etc... he has ramped it up, which is irresponsible IMO. He is closer to Britain First than UKIP when it comes to immigration which means his appeal is too narrow.FF43 said:
The main difference is that a vote for Leave was a vote for an idea. A vote for Trump is a vote for the person
Brexit was won by a coalition, a similar coalition could be put together in the US, Trump is not the man to do it.
To reduce unskilled immigration to the US?
- well, they could get rid of the lottery, because that's basically the only way that unskilled immigrants legally get to the US
To build a wall?
- which ignores the fact that 90+% of undocumented workers simply overstayed the welcome on their tourist visa
To reform NAFTA?
- given the US controls NAFTA, it's hard to see what reform is wanted or needed, except for possibly stopping free trade altogether
The Donald Trump platform is simple: the reason real incomes have stagnated is because of someone else. It's not a credible platform for change.
But...
The Leave platform is simple: the reason for your problems is because of the EU. It's not a credible platform for change.
Exactly.
0 -
Wasn't it the Garden Bridge discussion?Charles said:
I have no idea!JosiasJessop said:
Charles, whilst you are on:Charles said:And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
Probably something to do with a bridge...0 -
HSBC UK can set up an operating arm in Frankfurt and that operating arm need not be regulated by the FMA. It can just buy some telephones and get on with it.MaxPB said:
Bullshit again. Please tell me how HSBC UK can offer banking services to a German across the national border, nor via a subsidiary. Free market my arse. More federalist bullshit as always.FF43 said:
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EUReggieCide said:
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
Was that your question? Or have I misunderstood?0 -
Could well be! Anyway, if I wrote the note then I obviously felt I stepped over the line, so I'm sorry for whatever it was.Charles said:
I have no idea!JosiasJessop said:
Charles, whilst you are on:Charles said:And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
Probably something to do with a bridge...
Although I'm right about the Garden Bridge. I'l try to express my utter correctness in more moderate and respectful terms in the future.
0 -
Yes, i did say that. Although so did one or two in camp Leave as well.rcs1000 said:
Indeed: I think you said that we needed to see Leave approximately seven points ahead on the eve of pollingCasino_Royale said:
We had data with clear Leave leads 10 days-2 weeks out, though. What was happening is that people were discounting those.Sunil_Prasannan said:Clinton v Trump graph looks a bit like REMAIN v LEAVE prior to Referendum night?
So far I'm not seeing the evidence Trump has a clear path here, so I don't think he's value at current prices. But, if the betting starts to seriously diverge from the evidence and straws in the wind, I will.
One profitable strategy for me, so far, on Trump has been to back him for modest amounts every time the market reacts to something outrageous he's said. But DYOR.
My final prediction was 51.5 to 48.5 for Remain based on a 69% turnout. That was based on the YouGov final poll (which I think was a 4 point Leave lead from memory)
In the end, I massively overestimated how much chickening out would occur in the polling booth.
At the end of the day, not that many people were scared of voting Leave of those who declared an intention to do so.0 -
So a German subsidiary.TOPPING said:
HSBC UK can set up an operating arm in Frankfurt and that operating arm need not be regulated by the FMA. It can just buy some telephones and get on with it.MaxPB said:
Bullshit again. Please tell me how HSBC UK can offer banking services to a German across the national border, nor via a subsidiary. Free market my arse. More federalist bullshit as always.FF43 said:
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EUReggieCide said:
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
Was that your question? Or have I misunderstood?0 -
Free trade is a global concept. Under your definition all countries are free traders because internal trade is free. Very Pythonesque.FF43 said:
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EUReggieCide said:
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
I would guess they know Hilary isn't the best of campaigners and want to solidify the lead, or ideally get a knock out blow, before the debates and everything get going.taffys said:''Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.''
If Hillary is doing so well, why is he making this intervention?0 -
Regardless, it is true. The EU is not a credible platform for change with its current decision-making processes.Luckyguy1983 said:
No it isn't. That was the Remain characterisation of Leave's platform.rcs1000 said:
Fair pointMarkHopkins said:rcs1000 said:
But a coalition to do what?MaxPB said:
Indeed. I would guess at least a third of the Leave vote was driven by sovereignty and not wanting to be in the EU rather than immigration. I don't know what Trump offers that 15-17% of the US who would also be in that camp. The lack of pivot will kill him. I'm someone who may have considered voting for Trump in the primaries, but the rubbish about the Latino judge and his refusal to release hks tax return are issues that would make me sit it out. Additionally instead of toning down his rhetoric on Mexicans etc... he has ramped it up, which is irresponsible IMO. He is closer to Britain First than UKIP when it comes to immigration which means his appeal is too narrow.FF43 said:
The main difference is that a vote for Leave was a vote for an idea. A vote for Trump is a vote for the person
Brexit was won by a coalition, a similar coalition could be put together in the US, Trump is not the man to do it.
To reduce unskilled immigration to the US?
- well, they could get rid of the lottery, because that's basically the only way that unskilled immigrants legally get to the US
To build a wall?
- which ignores the fact that 90+% of undocumented workers simply overstayed the welcome on their tourist visa
To reform NAFTA?
- given the US controls NAFTA, it's hard to see what reform is wanted or needed, except for possibly stopping free trade altogether
The Donald Trump platform is simple: the reason real incomes have stagnated is because of someone else. It's not a credible platform for change.
But...
The Leave platform is simple: the reason for your problems is because of the EU. It's not a credible platform for change.0 -
More frightened, perhaps. You don't realise what a big and frightening place the wider world is to a hardcore Little Europer.MaxPB said:
You are. Very bitter.FF43 said:
"Fuck off. You're bitter." Really?MaxPB said:
Fuck off, that's not true. You keep peddling this bullshit becauae you're a raging federalist who is bitter about the people being sane enough to get out of there. We can trade freely with the EU and any country of our choosing once we leave.FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.0 -
I walk along from Waterloo station to Blackfriars regularly and there are quite a few " No to garden Bridge" posters up. Mostly In the council flats along the riverside. Cost?PlatoSaid said:
Wasn't it the Garden Bridge discussion?Charles said:
I have no idea!JosiasJessop said:
Charles, whilst you are on:Charles said:And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
Probably something to do with a bridge...0 -
And with shed loads of Europeans (Dutch-Belgians, assorted Germans), an army overweight in Irish and Scots, with a whole load of Prussians as reinforcements and an Austrian and Russian army in reserve. The one thing it wasn't was an English army, very much!Moses_ said:
Well to be fair at that point we did have Major Sharpe, that Irish Sergeant fella and the chosen men. Not forgetting good Mr. Hornblower of course.SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
0 -
That was what I'd previously hoped. I no longer believe it.SeanT said:
He's not going to win. And if he did win, I expect he'd turn out to be surprisingly centrist, apart from a few mad gestures to please the troops.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
He's a liberal New York billionaire.0 -
The EU does not have a veto over the WTO. It generally works by consensus. The existing WTO rules are already agreed and we and the EU are part of them. The EU does not get to say, if the UK walks with no deal under Article 50, that the WTO rules don't apply. They do and will.foxinsoxuk said:
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Best not piss them off lightly then.0 -
LEAVE 52%TOPPING said:
Is everyone who disagrees with you bitter, sad or deluded?MaxPB said:
We're already in the WTO. We just let the EU represent us. FF43 is just bitter and deluded.foxinsoxuk said:
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Best not piss them off lightly then.
Methinks a bit too much protesting and a bit of projection also.
REMAIN 48%0 -
I'm beginning to wonder if some of the Dems are right and that he is not stable mentally.rcs1000 said:
That was what I'd previously hoped. I no longer believe it.SeanT said:
He's not going to win. And if he did win, I expect he'd turn out to be surprisingly centrist, apart from a few mad gestures to please the troops.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
He's a liberal New York billionaire.0 -
There is a good argument to say the EU is distortionately protectionist.ReggieCide said:
Free trade is a global concept. Under your definition all countries are free traders because internal trade is free. Very Pythonesque.FF43 said:
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EUReggieCide said:
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
YepHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
It operates as a customs union with barriers to entry for nations outside it, but liberalises and harmonises rules within it. Of course, we know that's because of its political objectives much more than any exonomic ones.
So it builds in quite a large structural incentive for UK firms to do business inside the EU at the expense of the rest of the world. Yet we still do 55% of our trade with non-EU countries.
What that tells me is that, for a nation like the UK, there'd be quite a bit of business model disruption from leaving the EU to WTO rules but very little to harm our long term economic health, and possibly quite the opposite.0 -
Mr. B2, it is legitimate to point out all Europe grows weary of the French superiority complex
[I'm halfway through the second volume of Napoleon's biography, by TA Dodge. Three more, but I don't possess them. May give the Gustavus Adolphus bio on Kindle a look too].0 -
.
I don't think many people on either side of the argument understood the issues in play or the realities of their vote.ReggieCide said:
Every voter knew why he or her was voting for whatever they voted for. It is typical Remaindered rhetoric to content that Remaindered voters knew better than Brexiters why they voted how they did, being far better educated don't you know.TOPPING said:
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).ReggieCide said:
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?
As for Remaindereds being "interested", that is self evidently true of anyone expressing an opinion. It's the starting point in formulating that opinion that I am referencing.
Even enlightened PBers have selective memories. @Richard_Tyndall for example pointed out a concrete lack of sovereignty in the VAT on home energy issue. It was also used in the Leave campaign.
Are we now expecting the government to zero rate VAT on home energy supplies?
That sort of thing.0 -
@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says NEC voting overnight on whether to accept Woolfe nomination. Panel deemed it late cos of tech faults, but not Ukip's fault
@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says vetting panel accepted all 6 other leadership cands: Duffy, James, Etheridge, Arnott, Broughton & Jones
@MichaelLCrick: So it seems Ukip vetting panel decided Wolfe not admitting drink driving offence when standing for PCC is not a problem. Late nomination is0 -
Morbid and tasteless as it is (and it is) it might be interesting to speculate what the Leave vote would have been were it not for the tragic murder of Jo Cox.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, i did say that. Although so did one or two in camp Leave as well.rcs1000 said:
Indeed: I think you said that we needed to see Leave approximately seven points ahead on the eve of pollingCasino_Royale said:
We had data with clear Leave leads 10 days-2 weeks out, though. What was happening is that people were discounting those.Sunil_Prasannan said:Clinton v Trump graph looks a bit like REMAIN v LEAVE prior to Referendum night?
So far I'm not seeing the evidence Trump has a clear path here, so I don't think he's value at current prices. But, if the betting starts to seriously diverge from the evidence and straws in the wind, I will.
One profitable strategy for me, so far, on Trump has been to back him for modest amounts every time the market reacts to something outrageous he's said. But DYOR.
My final prediction was 51.5 to 48.5 for Remain based on a 69% turnout. That was based on the YouGov final poll (which I think was a 4 point Leave lead from memory)
In the end, I massively overestimated how much chickening out would occur in the polling booth.
At the end of the day, not that many people were scared of voting Leave of those who declared an intention to do so.
If Matthew Godwin's research is to be believed, Leave were ahead by about 12% shortly before.
Personally, I don't think much - but it might have been the difference between a Leave win of 54% to 46%, and what we actually got.0 -
Mr. Topping, parties can put that in their manifesto, or not, and win an election, or not, rather than unelected foreigners dictating such things. We could call it 'democracy' 0
-
Off topic, watching the pound creep a bit higher today.
Bloomberg has been running stories of BIG shorts in sterling ahead of this week's rate decision. Tomorrow's services data might be interesting.0 -
@prospect_uk: Britain is currently only a member of the WTO via the EU. When we try to re-join, 162 members must agree the terms https://t.co/gcK9EUcF2VMTimT said:The EU does not have a veto over the WTO. It generally works by consensus. The existing WTO rules are already agreed and we and the EU are part of them. The EU does not get to say, if the UK walks with no deal under Article 50, that the WTO rules don't apply. They do and will.
0 -
What do I think the outcome will be? I expect the talks to drag on and ultimately end in a fudge, or possibly, get stuck in the mud. I don't expect to see a lot of brinkmanship or quick fire deals, because we are dealing with politics and serving special interests.HurstLlama said:
Not really relevant. The WTO has rules, as they exist now, we can play by those rules or not if the countries in the EU decide otherwise. Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU's most important countries, and they do have WTO obligations, what do you think the likely outcome will be.FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Honestly, some people on here seem never to have negotiated anything in their lives. In my working days I would love to have come up against them across the table, I would have secured a fantastic deal for my side.
To take the WTO negotiations as an example. A stumbling block is the level of agricultural subsidy and quotas in the EU. Other non-EU countries dislike them intensely and as the UK membership is coming up for reappraisal they have some clout. The UK could clear the barnacles by agreeing to no subsidies or quotas on beef cattle, say. Our WTO membership is reaffirmed but in the process our beef industry is decimated. Is Theresa May prepared to look herself in the mirror and say, I'm OK with that? Or will she think, maybe we need to think of a different way of doing this? And that's just one special interest. Our negotiations will cross hundreds of them0 -
A subsidiary or just an office in Germany. Not a German subsidiary.MaxPB said:
So a German subsidiary.TOPPING said:
HSBC UK can set up an operating arm in Frankfurt and that operating arm need not be regulated by the FMA. It can just buy some telephones and get on with it.MaxPB said:
Bullshit again. Please tell me how HSBC UK can offer banking services to a German across the national border, nor via a subsidiary. Free market my arse. More federalist bullshit as always.FF43 said:
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EUReggieCide said:
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?FF43 said:
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
Was that your question? Or have I misunderstood?0 -
@paulwaugh: Am told Corbyn camp hv pulled out of Lab HQ meeting with Smith camp tmrw that was due to discuss poss TV debates. Awaiting TeamJC response0
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TOPPING said:
.
I don't think many people on either side of the argument understood the issues in play or the realities of their vote.ReggieCide said:
Every voter knew why he or her was voting for whatever they voted for. It is typical Remaindered rhetoric to content that Remaindered voters knew better than Brexiters why they voted how they did, being far better educated don't you know.TOPPING said:
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).ReggieCide said:
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?
As for Remaindereds being "interested", that is self evidently true of anyone expressing an opinion. It's the starting point in formulating that opinion that I am referencing.
Even enlightened PBers have selective memories. @Richard_Tyndall for example pointed out a concrete lack of sovereignty in the VAT on home energy issue. It was also used in the Leave campaign.
Are we now expecting the government to zero rate VAT on home energy supplies?
That sort of thing.
Are we now expecting the government to zero rate VAT on home energy supplies?
We can't. We haven't left yet.
But in the future any political party can put zero-rating of energy VAT in their manifestos.
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No it hasn't. There was nothing egregious in his honours suggestions compared to how honours have been portrayed as long as I have been alive. His reputation will be defined by Brexit, and either tempered or worsened by how one feels about the coalition years, the rest is nonsense.SeanT said:
Cameron's honours for REMAINERS has laid the capstone on his reputation.Casino_Royale said:
Exactly so. The deal will be shoddy unless the EU do think we are prepared to walk awayHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Difference between May and Cameron is that I think the former could quite possibly threaten to do so, whereas the latter never would.
PM May winning GE2015 would probably have got a better deal and we'd probably have just narrowly voted to Remain.0 -
National - NBC/Survey Monkey
Clinton 50 .. Trump 48
National - YouGov/Economist
Clinton 41 .. Trump 360 -
Or he thinks his style has got him this far, people like it and want more of it.SeanT said:
I wonder if he's realised he doesn't want the job, and is now actively trying to disqualify himself.MTimT said:
I'm beginning to wonder if some of the Dems are right and that he is not stable mentally.rcs1000 said:
That was what I'd previously hoped. I no longer believe it.SeanT said:
He's not going to win. And if he did win, I expect he'd turn out to be surprisingly centrist, apart from a few mad gestures to please the troops.rcs1000 said:
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.SeanT said:
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.HurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
He's a liberal New York billionaire.
Which would also pander to his ego.0 -
I have no idea what you are on about? What WTO negotiations?FF43 said:
What do I think the outcome will be? I expect the talks to drag on and ultimately end in a fudge, or possibly, get stuck in the mud. I don't expect to see a lot of brinkmanship or quick fire deals, because we are dealing with politics and serving special interests.HurstLlama said:
Not really relevant. The WTO has rules, as they exist now, we can play by those rules or not if the countries in the EU decide otherwise. Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU's most important countries, and they do have WTO obligations, what do you think the likely outcome will be.FF43 said:
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as wellHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Honestly, some people on here seem never to have negotiated anything in their lives. In my working days I would love to have come up against them across the table, I would have secured a fantastic deal for my side.
To take the WTO negotiations as an example. A stumbling block is the level of agricultural subsidy and quotas in the EU. Other non-EU countries dislike them intensely and as the UK membership is coming up for reappraisal they have some clout. The UK could clear the barnacles by agreeing to no subsidies or quotas on beef cattle, say. Our WTO membership is reaffirmed but in the process our beef industry is decimated. Is Theresa May prepared to look herself in the mirror and say, I'm OK with that? Or will she think, maybe we need to think of a different way of doing this? And that's just one special interest. Our negotiations will cross hundreds of them0 -
I agree. We were talking about why people voted how they did in the referendum. It is reasonable to think that some Leave voters are expecting a VAT cut on their energy bills.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Topping, parties can put that in their manifesto, or not, and win an election, or not, rather than unelected foreigners dictating such things. We could call it 'democracy'
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His biggest failure was his refusal to govern by anything other than through his chumocracy.SeanT said:
Cameron's honours for REMAINERS has laid the capstone on his reputation. He really was just a self-serving Etonian tit, articulate and plausible, but helplessly snobbish, and irredeemably shallow; he was well-meaning in ways, but vastly overrated, not least by himself.Casino_Royale said:
Exactly so. The deal will be shoddy unless the EU do think we are prepared to walk awayHurstLlama said:
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".SeanT said:
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.ReggieCide said:
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.Scott_P said:@YouGov: Britain on collision course with German and French publics over Brexit deal https://t.co/c4cN1sse4Q https://t.co/KmXXtTjyYG
Difference between May and Cameron is that I think the former could quite possibly threaten to do so, whereas the latter never would.
PM May winning GE2015 would probably have got a better deal and we'd probably have just narrowly voted to Remain.
"I think I'd be rather good as prime minister". How tragicomic that seems now.
David Cameron was a fool, in quite a profound sense.
Forty years ago that'd have been called The Establishment, and with good reason.0 -
That's funny, as my fridge is full of post it notes reminding me to insult various people on PB...JosiasJessop said:
Charles, whilst you are on:Charles said:And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.0 -
Or indeed abolish VAT altogether.MarkHopkins said:
Are we now expecting the government to zero rate VAT on home energy supplies?
We can't. We haven't left yet.
But in the future any political party can put zero-rating of energy VAT in their manifestos.0
This discussion has been closed.