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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting moves to Hillary following post convention polling boosts
The WH2016 betting moves Clinton's way following the spate of good post convention polls pic.twitter.com/uPZD8WkUSd
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Battle was 2,232 years ago today.
When will the US results come in? Given the time zones, might it be at a civilised hour for those of us in Blighty?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-36951550
Exit polls will start past midnight and results into the morning I believe.
Mr. Quidder, the first hour, with no proper exit poll and just mood music, was quite odd. Swung from great Remain optimism to doubt, and then the first results made for grim reading for that camp.
Wilson's resignation, however, came as a bolt out of the blue. I remember being in barracks at the time, we were getting changed after some activity or other and one of the chaps had the wireless on and the announcement was made on the news. All twelve of us crowded around this small transistor radio wondering what the effect of Wilson going would be and why he had resigned. I remember the sense of shock.
Ecclestone and Rindt wre firm friends, and he was devastated when he died.
He's willing to help a friend's daughter out, yet he alegedly has virtually nothing to do with his first daughter, Deborah.
Odd man.
The early results came out around 1am to 2am and we had a constant stream from then on.
I think we got the winner confirmed around 4am.
Curiously some states and media report state results whilst the polls are still open in said state.
Mr. 86, not the first kidnap in F1 history.
I think Fangio was kidnapped ahead of the Cuban Grand Prix by those opposed to Batista[sp]. He was allowed to watch the race, had a relatively nice time, and was then returned after the race was done, safe and sound.
Mr. Jessop, quite.
Edited extra bit: cheers for that info, Mr. Eagles.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36951783
"The differences between national polls, which often showed a very tight race for the popular vote, and polls of swing states, where President Obama usually maintained an advantage, were a source of intrigue this year. It could be that Mitt Romney’s performance in strongly red-leaning states, which were sparsely polled this year, accounts for much of the difference, allowing him to rack up votes without helping himself in the Electoral College."
This time the "advantage" is Trump's.
It'd be interesting, if rather sad, to check news articles from 2011/12 when the Syrian situation first began.
Incredible that Assad has managed to hold on. The strategic position and alliance with Russians/Iranians must be the critical difference.
It's like a chess match where despite there being 100 moves, someone tells you it's all over after fifty.
I posted my views on that bridge collapse on the previous thread.
Still fairly ill, sadly. I just couldn't resist a topic that included trains, bridges and failures.
As an aside, an anecdote: in the 1960s my dad ran the family firm with his brother. He got a call out from a farmer he vaguely knew in South Derbyshire in the middle of the night saying his house was creaking. When he arrived, he found massive bulges and cracks in the walls of the farmhouse, and he immediately ordered all the family out. He phoned up a couple of his foremen and instructed them to get men, wood and acrow props from one of the stores.
In the meantime, my uncle had to physically restrain the lady of the house from going in. By the time the men arrived (it was still dark and raining heavily), the house had almost totally collapsed, taking with it all the family's belongings.
My dad's never forgotten how distraught the mother was. The farmer was, apparently, stoic in the way only farmers can be.
I got a lot of calls back then from the press. None so far today.
With the networks' teams of mathematicians and impressive statistical expertise they put our coverage to shame. They are able to call states well before all the votes are counted.
Would it that we run our election nights more like the Americans – they focus much more on the data and much less on talking heads. It's impressive stuff.
There has been the odd blunder (FL in the Bush era springs to mind) but generally they get it bang on well ahead of time.
. When he returned to No 10 in March 1974 he had no intention of remaining for very long. A number of people - including Speaker George Thomas - were aware of his plans and it never leaked!
I have never bought the idea that he resigned for health reasons at all. He went on to write books and to chair an Inquiry into the City. True his famous memory was no longer what it had been , but that was probably nothing more than the natural ageing process - ie of being 60 rather than 40. From comments made by those who knew him well , I don't think Alzheimers took hold until the mid-1980s - though it has been suggested that he was affected by anaesthetic received during an operation in 1980 or 1981.
Mr. Jessop, sad to hear that, but hope your recovery continues.
Trump's campaign is looking more and more like Leave every day.
"Racist" "Obnoxious" "Decent people won't vote for it" "Doesn't have a hope" etc
And what happened?
The world may be in for another shock in November...
So far I'm not seeing the evidence Trump has a clear path here, so I don't think he's value at current prices. But, if the betting starts to seriously diverge from the evidence and straws in the wind, I will.
One profitable strategy for me, so far, on Trump has been to back him for modest amounts every time the market reacts to something outrageous he's said. But DYOR.
Edit: Wow.. why is it so out of date. Realclearpolitics has a much more up to date list:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
Back to the path.
Donald has to win the rust belt; and he has to do it on nakedly protectionist grounds. He has to persuade the people of Michigan that their car making jobs are coming back if they vote for him. (Disclaimer: they're not.) He has to persuade those hurt by globalisation that protectionism is the answer. (Disclaimer: it's not.)
The irony is that this would have been a lot easier if he hadn't alienated so many along the way. There are a lot of ex-Mexicans in the US who'd like to pull up the drawbridge. But they don't like it when Donald says that a judge of Hispanic origins wouldn't be able to officiate on a case involving him.
For that reason, I'm going to say predict that Donald doesn't make it. He might pick up Ohio and a few other rust belt states. But I think he'll struggle to flip Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico - and he might lose Arizona. Add New England and the West Coast to Hillary's total, and it simply doesn't leave much margin for error for Mr Trump.
Labour leadership election
Harrison Grant has issued proceedings against the Labour Party on behalf of a number of new members who have been denied the opportunity to vote in the forthcoming leadership election. Following an order for an expedited hearing this case will be heard at the High Court in London Thursday 4th August
@RodCrosby is currently banned, so that might explain his disappearance.
What is a vote for Hillary for?
Everyone knows what Trump is.
Apparently they are acting on behalf of about 200 members who joined up after the January 12th cut off point.
If you have a look at his last few comments, you might get a flavour of why Mike deployed the ban hammer.
That things didn’t turn out as badly as he feared is fortunate for him. I think his resignation was greatly to his crfedit.
Would think they will win their case, but not sure if the court has the power to force the Labour Party to change their cut-off date, or whether they would simply tell them that they have to offer refunds to up to 130 thousand people who signed up since January
Trump's attacks have failed so far because he's shooting off all over the place rather than going for the main targets: she's Beltway and she's got history. But he seems incapable of sticking to the script and allows his mouth to run several sentences ahead of his brain.
Brexit was won by a coalition, a similar coalition could be put together in the US, Trump is not the man to do it.
To reduce unskilled immigration to the US?
- well, they could get rid of the lottery, because that's basically the only way that unskilled immigrants legally get to the US
To build a wall?
- which ignores the fact that 90+% of undocumented workers simply overstayed the welcome on their tourist visa
To reform NAFTA?
- given the US controls NAFTA, it's hard to see what reform is wanted or needed, except for possibly stopping free trade altogether
The Donald Trump platform is simple: the reason real incomes have stagnated is because of someone else. It's not a credible platform for change.
But...
The Leave platform is simple: the reason for your problems is because of the EU. It's not a credible platform for change.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
I find that pretty hard to believe, except in the sense that Le Pen and AfD will be using Brexit to argue for Frexit and Gerxit, rather than demanding their governments be nasty to the UK.
If Hillary is doing so well, why is he making this intervention?
Interestingly, in view of comments about PM’s children in politics neither of his sons appear to have much interest in the subject, although both followed their father’s mathmatical “trade”.