Clinton v Trump graph looks a bit like REMAIN v LEAVE prior to Referendum night?
We had data with clear Leave leads 10 days-2 weeks out, though. What was happening is that people were discounting those.
So far I'm not seeing the evidence Trump has a clear path here, so I don't think he's value at current prices. But, if the betting starts to seriously diverge from the evidence and straws in the wind, I will.
One profitable strategy for me, so far, on Trump has been to back him for modest amounts every time the market reacts to something outrageous he's said. But DYOR.
Trump has a path, but it's a difficult one. I know everyone likes to compare it to Remain vs Leave, but really it's not. The similarity is that it is an insurgent political movement: but few of us who voted to take the UK out of the EU did so on the grounds that Nigel Farage would be best to run the country.
Back to the path.
Donald has to win the rust belt; and he has to do it on nakedly protectionist grounds. He has to persuade the people of Michigan that their car making jobs are coming back if they vote for him. (Disclaimer: they're not.) He has to persuade those hurt by globalisation that protectionism is the answer. (Disclaimer: it's not.)
The irony is that this would have been a lot easier if he hadn't alienated so many along the way. There are a lot of ex-Mexicans in the US who'd like to pull up the drawbridge. But they don't like it when Donald says that a judge of Hispanic origins wouldn't be able to officiate on a case involving him.
For that reason, I'm going to say predict that Donald doesn't make it. He might pick up Ohio and a few other rust belt states. But I think he'll struggle to flip Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico - and he might lose Arizona. Add New England and the West Coast to Hillary's total, and it simply doesn't leave much margin for error for Mr Trump.
What is most notable is that the Trump rampers on here – RodCrosby and Speedy et al – have either disappeared entirely (Rod) or change their tune (Speedy).
@RodCrosby is currently banned, so that might explain his disappearance.
What for? Has he been banging in about the holocaust again?
Michael Foster, the chap who took the NEC to court, is Jewish.
If you have a look at his last few comments, you might get a flavour of why Mike deployed the ban hammer.
Yougov seems in this piece to be implying that the terms of Brexit will play a prominent role in the German and French national elections.
I find that pretty hard to believe, except in the sense that Le Pen and AfD will be using Brexit to argue for Frexit and Gerxit, rather than demanding their governments be nasty to the UK.
Is AfD arguing for Gerxit? The old AfD - admittedly before they changed and went all FN - was anti-Euro (and specifically anti-bailouts for Greece) but not particularly anti EU. Their original conception - when it was run by the sensible ex-IBM Germany CEO - was that the Euro was fine as a group of tightly integrated Northern European countries (Germany plus the Netherlands and Luxembourg) but should never have been extended beyond that point.
Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.
If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
My advise to Trump would have been to build a mock-up TV studio for training on the debates and TV interviews, with his family doing the role of the biased moderator and journalist (because his family is probably the only people he listens to and unable to fire in a fit of rage).
Or simply do what Hillary does, avoid the media and put the weight on advertising (but it costs money).
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Mr Llama, the current 'sod the EU' line seems to be, "You can't tell us when to leave! We'll stay as long as we please!"
Two points. On a scale of 1-10 as suitable for POTUS Clinton probably ranks about 4. Trump however is probably -5. Secondly she’s Obama’s unsuitable candidate!
When will the US results come in? Given the time zones, might it be at a civilised hour for those of us in Blighty?
I was in charge of PB on election night in 2012.
The early results came out around 1am to 2am and we had a constant stream from then on.
I think we got the winner confirmed around 4am.
Curiously some states and media report state results whilst the polls are still open in said state.
Indiana normally closes first at 6 pm. 11pm here. After that at midnight there are a few. By 1:00 quite a few Eastern states close. I think Kentucky closes early as well.
A lot of calls made before rsults are in, even the outcome called early.
It's like a chess match where despite there being 100 moves, someone tells you it's all over after fifty.
The vast majority of states are foregone conclusions (no-one is going to wait up for California, it being a DEM stronghold) so there is a science to the way they do things in the States.
With the networks' teams of mathematicians and impressive statistical expertise they put our coverage to shame. They are able to call states well before all the votes are counted.
Would it that we run our election nights more like the Americans – they focus much more on the data and much less on talking heads. It's impressive stuff.
There has been the odd blunder (FL in the Bush era springs to mind) but generally they get it bang on well ahead of time.
If we counted by polling station as they do we could do the same. Though without practice it might go the same way as the referendum when PB called it hours before the networks.
Quite so. The tragic thing is London does effectively do exactly that in mayoral polls – yet because of the absurd scheduling where they don't start counting until 9am the following morning the process drags on forever and amateurs call it hours before the networks. Sadiq was declared at some ungodly hour late on the Friday night last time, by which time the public was either asleep or propping up a bar somewhere. It was risible stuff.
We really do need to up our game here – it's amateurish, the way we do things.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.
Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.
If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
Yes. But in this case they're correct. The US stepping back from the mutual defence provisions of NATO (and, as an aside Estonia has always honoured the 2% of GDP provision) does increase the possibility of something bad happening to the Baltics.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.
If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
It seems to be catching all round. Didn't Cameron rerun the Scottish Indyref?
Harrison Grant has issued proceedings against the Labour Party on behalf of a number of new members who have been denied the opportunity to vote in the forthcoming leadership election. Following an order for an expedited hearing this case will be heard at the High Court in London Thursday 4th August
I doubt it. I'd expect the court to uphold the NEC's decision for much the same reason that they upheld the decision that Corbyn didn't need nominations: it was taken according to the rules by the competent body and was, if a little odd, not unduly discriminatory.
Think this is slightly different David. Think this one will be based on contract law. The website where the people signed up said Join the Labour Party and vote in the leadership elections. The wording on the website was not changed until July.
Would think they will win their case, but not sure if the court has the power to force the Labour Party to change their cut-off date, or whether they would simply tell them that they have to offer refunds to up to 130 thousand people who signed up since January
Didn't know that, but on balance - and I'm not a lawyer - I'd have thought the latter. The NEC has the power to determine the rules but if membership has been sold on a false prospectus then I'd expect refund to be in order.
A refund and a cancelled membership if they ask for one? If they really are committed to the party they won't ask, if they only joined to vote they may well do. What's not to like?
Did I mention the new fantasy football PB league is up again...
Linky linky? Or don't you want to be beat again?
I think you are already in it if you log in to your fantasy footie account.... mind you, I could kick you out now that you remind me of last season's daylight robbery...
Foxinsox will be running with the team Leicester Fossils.
The Fossils was the original nickname of Leicester Fosse, which became Leicester City in 1920.
Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.
If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
Yes. But in this case they're correct. The US stepping back from the mutual defence provisions of NATO (and, as an aside Estonia has always honoured the 2% of GDP provision) does increase the possibility of something bad happening to the Baltics.
Deterrents only work if they are credible.
The Baltics have never been as important to Russia as the Ukraine. The risk of 'something bad' happening to them is overblown.
That said, having a US President who might be prepared to sit down with Putin and redraw the line across Europe would mean that things would get interesting...
Did I mention the new fantasy football PB league is up again...
Linky linky? Or don't you want to be beat again?
I think you are already in it if you log in to your fantasy footie account.... mind you, I could kick you out now that you remind me of last season's daylight robbery...
Foxinsox will be running with the team Leicester Fossils.
The Fossils was the original nickname of Leicester Fosse, which became Leicester City in 1920.
Yup - can see you in the league ready to go....
Surely TSE isn't going to pass this year - not when he replicated his beloved Chelsea's performance in the PL so well in th PB league? [trolling overload]
this is the link for any new joiners too - 843320-227121
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
From what we've seen, May doesn't lack balls (I nearly gave that a capital!); we'll have to judge her motivation later.
Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.
Just when the strategy of giving him enough rope to hang himself started to bear fruit, the Democrats have decided to abandon that approach... It seems much too early in the campaign for this kind of intervention from Obama. If Trump recovers then it will carry much less weight the next time he tries.
Obama's intervention over here went well as I recall.
If Clinton gets the IMF to tell Americans how disastrous Trump's economic policies will be then you know they're really in trouble.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
I notice they are running the trump takes Russian money so will be mates with Putin angle a lot too... the fact the Clintons have had a bob or two (by bob or two insert 10s millions) from similar interesting individuals isnt the same apparently.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
Clinton v Trump graph looks a bit like REMAIN v LEAVE prior to Referendum night?
We had data with clear Leave leads 10 days-2 weeks out, though. What was happening is that people were discounting those.
So far I'm not seeing the evidence Trump has a clear path here, so I don't think he's value at current prices. But, if the betting starts to seriously diverge from the evidence and straws in the wind, I will.
One profitable strategy for me, so far, on Trump has been to back him for modest amounts every time the market reacts to something outrageous he's said. But DYOR.
Trump has a path, but it's a difficult one. I know everyone likes to compare it to Remain vs Leave, but really it's not. The similarity is that it is an insurgent political movement: but few of us who voted to take the UK out of the EU did so on the grounds that Nigel Farage would be best to run the country.
Back to the path.
Donald has to win the rust belt; and he has to do it on nakedly protectionist grounds. He has to persuade the people of Michigan that their car making jobs are coming back if they vote for him. (Disclaimer: they're not.) He has to persuade those hurt by globalisation that protectionism is the answer. (Disclaimer: it's not.)
The irony is that this would have been a lot easier if he hadn't alienated so many along the way. There are a lot of ex-Mexicans in the US who'd like to pull up the drawbridge. But they don't like it when Donald says that a judge of Hispanic origins wouldn't be able to officiate on a case involving him.
For that reason, I'm going to say predict that Donald doesn't make it. He might pick up Ohio and a few other rust belt states. But I think he'll struggle to flip Colorado, Nevada or New Mexico - and he might lose Arizona. Add New England and the West Coast to Hillary's total, and it simply doesn't leave much margin for error for Mr Trump.
What is most notable is that the Trump rampers on here – RodCrosby and Speedy et al – have either disappeared entirely (Rod) or change their tune (Speedy).
@RodCrosby is currently banned, so that might explain his disappearance.
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
If we prove a success, more will want to follow then. As it is, even those tempted by the thought will, in initial confusion and claims of disaster, not be inclined to say yes to leaving
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?
Best not piss them off lightly then.
I would be more concerned about China over Hinkley Point etc
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
Charles, whilst you are on:
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
Charles, whilst you are on:
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
Who actually said that, given it is in quotation marks?
I think it was a Remainer arguing that Brexit was a bad thing...
Plenty of media speculation along the lines of “if Britain leaves, will others follow” don’t know if anyone actually used the quote, Alberto Nardelli has reported. – Guardian bod, nuff said.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
Fuck off, that's not true. You keep peddling this bullshit becauae you're a raging federalist who is bitter about the people being sane enough to get out of there. We can trade freely with the EU and any country of our choosing once we leave.
The main difference is that a vote for Leave was a vote for an idea. A vote for Trump is a vote for the person
Indeed. I would guess at least a third of the Leave vote was driven by sovereignty and not wanting to be in the EU rather than immigration. I don't know what Trump offers that 15-17% of the US who would also be in that camp. The lack of pivot will kill him. I'm someone who may have considered voting for Trump in the primaries, but the rubbish about the Latino judge and his refusal to release hks tax return are issues that would make me sit it out. Additionally instead of toning down his rhetoric on Mexicans etc... he has ramped it up, which is irresponsible IMO. He is closer to Britain First than UKIP when it comes to immigration which means his appeal is too narrow.
Brexit was won by a coalition, a similar coalition could be put together in the US, Trump is not the man to do it.
But a coalition to do what?
To reduce unskilled immigration to the US? - well, they could get rid of the lottery, because that's basically the only way that unskilled immigrants legally get to the US
To build a wall? - which ignores the fact that 90+% of undocumented workers simply overstayed the welcome on their tourist visa
To reform NAFTA? - given the US controls NAFTA, it's hard to see what reform is wanted or needed, except for possibly stopping free trade altogether
The Donald Trump platform is simple: the reason real incomes have stagnated is because of someone else. It's not a credible platform for change.
But...
The Leave platform is simple: the reason for your problems is because of the EU. It's not a credible platform for change.
Fair point
No it isn't. That was the Remain characterisation of Leave's platform.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EU
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?
Are you kidding? Social media is full of REMAINIACS moaning on about the result, still trying to reverse it, troubling deaf heaven with their bootless cries, blah blah.
You should try to restrict yourself to the superior social media channels.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?
Best not piss them off lightly then.
We're already in the WTO. We just let the EU represent us. FF43 is just bitter and deluded.
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
Charles, whilst you are on:
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Exactly so. The deal will be shoddy unless the EU do think we are prepared to walk away
Difference between May and Cameron is that I think the former could quite possibly threaten to do so, whereas the latter never would.
PM May winning GE2015 would probably have got a better deal and we'd probably have just narrowly voted to Remain.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EU
Quite. I've never seen a convincing argument from a free-trading Brexiteer as to why the left wing case against the EU is wrong.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
Not really relevant. The WTO has rules, as they exist now, we can play by those rules or not if the countries in the EU decide otherwise. Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU's most important countries, and they do have WTO obligations, what do you think the likely outcome will be.
Honestly, some people on here seem never to have negotiated anything in their lives. In my working days I would love to have come up against them across the table, I would have secured a fantastic deal for my side.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?
Best not piss them off lightly then.
We're already in the WTO. We just let the EU represent us. FF43 is just bitter and deluded.
Is everyone who disagrees with you bitter, sad or deluded?
Methinks a bit too much protesting and a bit of projection also.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EU
Bullshit again. Please tell me how HSBC UK can offer banking services to a German across the national border, nor via a subsidiary. Free market my arse. More federalist bullshit as always.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?
Best not piss them off lightly then.
All these revelations of how difficult it is to extricate ourselves from the EU merely prove that we were right to quit. If we'd left it five more years, or ten, we'd have been too deeply enmeshed ever to escape.
We would have been doomed to EU membership for eternity.
After the abolition of slavery, it was bloody impossible to negotiate an equitable sharecropping contract with one's former owner. Therefore the abolition of slavery was a huge mistake. Discuss.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?
Best not piss them off lightly then.
We're already in the WTO. We just let the EU represent us. FF43 is just bitter and deluded.
Is everyone who disagrees with you bitter, sad or deluded?
Methinks a bit too much protesting and a bit of projection also.
No, just the remain side who won't accept the result. People such as yourself. We won, you lost. Accept it. Your arguments were bullshit then and they still are now.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?
Every voter knew why he or her was voting for whatever they voted for. It is typical Remaindered rhetoric to content that Remaindered voters knew better than Brexiters why they voted how they did, being far better educated don't you know.
As for Remaindereds being "interested", that is self evidently true of anyone expressing an opinion. It's the starting point in formulating that opinion that I am referencing.
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
Charles, whilst you are on:
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
Fuck off, that's not true. You keep peddling this bullshit becauae you're a raging federalist who is bitter about the people being sane enough to get out of there. We can trade freely with the EU and any country of our choosing once we leave.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
Fuck off, that's not true. You keep peddling this bullshit becauae you're a raging federalist who is bitter about the people being sane enough to get out of there. We can trade freely with the EU and any country of our choosing once we leave.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
Not really relevant. The WTO has rules, as they exist now, we can play by those rules or not if the countries in the EU decide otherwise. Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU's most important countries, and they do have WTO obligations, what do you think the likely outcome will be.
Honestly, some people on here seem never to have negotiated anything in their lives. In my working days I would love to have come up against them across the table, I would have secured a fantastic deal for my side.
Indeed, the EU would have precisely the same number of votes in the WTO as the UK, and the UK will have far more natural allies on trade issues within the WTO membership than we currently have within the EU.
The main difference is that a vote for Leave was a vote for an idea. A vote for Trump is a vote for the person
Indeed. I would guess at least a third of the Leave vote was driven by sovereignty and not wanting to be in the EU rather than immigration. I don't know what Trump offers that 15-17% of the US who would also be in that camp. The lack of pivot will kill him. I'm someone who may have considered voting for Trump in the primaries, but the rubbish about the Latino judge and his refusal to release hks tax return are issues that would make me sit it out. Additionally instead of toning down his rhetoric on Mexicans etc... he has ramped it up, which is irresponsible IMO. He is closer to Britain First than UKIP when it comes to immigration which means his appeal is too narrow.
Brexit was won by a coalition, a similar coalition could be put together in the US, Trump is not the man to do it.
But a coalition to do what?
To reduce unskilled immigration to the US? - well, they could get rid of the lottery, because that's basically the only way that unskilled immigrants legally get to the US
To build a wall? - which ignores the fact that 90+% of undocumented workers simply overstayed the welcome on their tourist visa
To reform NAFTA? - given the US controls NAFTA, it's hard to see what reform is wanted or needed, except for possibly stopping free trade altogether
The Donald Trump platform is simple: the reason real incomes have stagnated is because of someone else. It's not a credible platform for change.
But...
The Leave platform is simple: the reason for your problems is because of the EU. It's not a credible platform for change.
Fair point
No it isn't. That was the Remain characterisation of Leave's platform.
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
Charles, whilst you are on:
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EU
Bullshit again. Please tell me how HSBC UK can offer banking services to a German across the national border, nor via a subsidiary. Free market my arse. More federalist bullshit as always.
HSBC UK can set up an operating arm in Frankfurt and that operating arm need not be regulated by the FMA. It can just buy some telephones and get on with it.
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
Charles, whilst you are on:
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
I have no idea!
Probably something to do with a bridge...
Could well be! Anyway, if I wrote the note then I obviously felt I stepped over the line, so I'm sorry for whatever it was.
Although I'm right about the Garden Bridge. I'l try to express my utter correctness in more moderate and respectful terms in the future.
Clinton v Trump graph looks a bit like REMAIN v LEAVE prior to Referendum night?
We had data with clear Leave leads 10 days-2 weeks out, though. What was happening is that people were discounting those.
So far I'm not seeing the evidence Trump has a clear path here, so I don't think he's value at current prices. But, if the betting starts to seriously diverge from the evidence and straws in the wind, I will.
One profitable strategy for me, so far, on Trump has been to back him for modest amounts every time the market reacts to something outrageous he's said. But DYOR.
Indeed: I think you said that we needed to see Leave approximately seven points ahead on the eve of polling
Yes, i did say that. Although so did one or two in camp Leave as well.
My final prediction was 51.5 to 48.5 for Remain based on a 69% turnout. That was based on the YouGov final poll (which I think was a 4 point Leave lead from memory)
In the end, I massively overestimated how much chickening out would occur in the polling booth.
At the end of the day, not that many people were scared of voting Leave of those who declared an intention to do so.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EU
Bullshit again. Please tell me how HSBC UK can offer banking services to a German across the national border, nor via a subsidiary. Free market my arse. More federalist bullshit as always.
HSBC UK can set up an operating arm in Frankfurt and that operating arm need not be regulated by the FMA. It can just buy some telephones and get on with it.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EU
Free trade is a global concept. Under your definition all countries are free traders because internal trade is free. Very Pythonesque.
''Obama says Trump is unfit to be President and urges Republicans to withdraw their backing.''
If Hillary is doing so well, why is he making this intervention?
I would guess they know Hilary isn't the best of campaigners and want to solidify the lead, or ideally get a knock out blow, before the debates and everything get going.
The main difference is that a vote for Leave was a vote for an idea. A vote for Trump is a vote for the person
Indeed. I would guess at least a third of the Leave vote was driven by sovereignty and not wanting to be in the EU rather than immigration. I don't know what Trump offers that 15-17% of the US who would also be in that camp. The lack of pivot will kill him. I'm someone who may have considered voting for Trump in the primaries, but the rubbish about the Latino judge and his refusal to release hks tax return are issues that would make me sit it out. Additionally instead of toning down his rhetoric on Mexicans etc... he has ramped it up, which is irresponsible IMO. He is closer to Britain First than UKIP when it comes to immigration which means his appeal is too narrow.
Brexit was won by a coalition, a similar coalition could be put together in the US, Trump is not the man to do it.
But a coalition to do what?
To reduce unskilled immigration to the US? - well, they could get rid of the lottery, because that's basically the only way that unskilled immigrants legally get to the US
To build a wall? - which ignores the fact that 90+% of undocumented workers simply overstayed the welcome on their tourist visa
To reform NAFTA? - given the US controls NAFTA, it's hard to see what reform is wanted or needed, except for possibly stopping free trade altogether
The Donald Trump platform is simple: the reason real incomes have stagnated is because of someone else. It's not a credible platform for change.
But...
The Leave platform is simple: the reason for your problems is because of the EU. It's not a credible platform for change.
Fair point
No it isn't. That was the Remain characterisation of Leave's platform.
Regardless, it is true. The EU is not a credible platform for change with its current decision-making processes.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
Fuck off, that's not true. You keep peddling this bullshit becauae you're a raging federalist who is bitter about the people being sane enough to get out of there. We can trade freely with the EU and any country of our choosing once we leave.
"Fuck off. You're bitter." Really?
You are. Very bitter.
More frightened, perhaps. You don't realise what a big and frightening place the wider world is to a hardcore Little Europer.
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
Charles, whilst you are on:
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
I have no idea!
Probably something to do with a bridge...
Wasn't it the Garden Bridge discussion?
I walk along from Waterloo station to Blackfriars regularly and there are quite a few " No to garden Bridge" posters up. Mostly In the council flats along the riverside. Cost?
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Well to be fair at that point we did have Major Sharpe, that Irish Sergeant fella and the chosen men. Not forgetting good Mr. Hornblower of course.
And with shed loads of Europeans (Dutch-Belgians, assorted Germans), an army overweight in Irish and Scots, with a whole load of Prussians as reinforcements and an Austrian and Russian army in reserve. The one thing it wasn't was an English army, very much!
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
He's not going to win. And if he did win, I expect he'd turn out to be surprisingly centrist, apart from a few mad gestures to please the troops.
He's a liberal New York billionaire.
That was what I'd previously hoped. I no longer believe it.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?
Best not piss them off lightly then.
The EU does not have a veto over the WTO. It generally works by consensus. The existing WTO rules are already agreed and we and the EU are part of them. The EU does not get to say, if the UK walks with no deal under Article 50, that the WTO rules don't apply. They do and will.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
So the EU has a veto over WTO too?
Best not piss them off lightly then.
We're already in the WTO. We just let the EU represent us. FF43 is just bitter and deluded.
Is everyone who disagrees with you bitter, sad or deluded?
Methinks a bit too much protesting and a bit of projection also.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
He's not going to win. And if he did win, I expect he'd turn out to be surprisingly centrist, apart from a few mad gestures to please the troops.
He's a liberal New York billionaire.
That was what I'd previously hoped. I no longer believe it.
I'm beginning to wonder if some of the Dems are right and that he is not stable mentally.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EU
Free trade is a global concept. Under your definition all countries are free traders because internal trade is free. Very Pythonesque.
There is a good argument to say the EU is distortionately protectionist.
It operates as a customs union with barriers to entry for nations outside it, but liberalises and harmonises rules within it. Of course, we know that's because of its political objectives much more than any exonomic ones.
So it builds in quite a large structural incentive for UK firms to do business inside the EU at the expense of the rest of the world. Yet we still do 55% of our trade with non-EU countries.
What that tells me is that, for a nation like the UK, there'd be quite a bit of business model disruption from leaving the EU to WTO rules but very little to harm our long term economic health, and possibly quite the opposite.
Mr. B2, it is legitimate to point out all Europe grows weary of the French superiority complex
[I'm halfway through the second volume of Napoleon's biography, by TA Dodge. Three more, but I don't possess them. May give the Gustavus Adolphus bio on Kindle a look too].
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?
Every voter knew why he or her was voting for whatever they voted for. It is typical Remaindered rhetoric to content that Remaindered voters knew better than Brexiters why they voted how they did, being far better educated don't you know.
As for Remaindereds being "interested", that is self evidently true of anyone expressing an opinion. It's the starting point in formulating that opinion that I am referencing.
I don't think many people on either side of the argument understood the issues in play or the realities of their vote.
Even enlightened PBers have selective memories. @Richard_Tyndall for example pointed out a concrete lack of sovereignty in the VAT on home energy issue. It was also used in the Leave campaign.
Are we now expecting the government to zero rate VAT on home energy supplies?
@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says NEC voting overnight on whether to accept Woolfe nomination. Panel deemed it late cos of tech faults, but not Ukip's fault
@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says vetting panel accepted all 6 other leadership cands: Duffy, James, Etheridge, Arnott, Broughton & Jones
@MichaelLCrick: So it seems Ukip vetting panel decided Wolfe not admitting drink driving offence when standing for PCC is not a problem. Late nomination is
Clinton v Trump graph looks a bit like REMAIN v LEAVE prior to Referendum night?
We had data with clear Leave leads 10 days-2 weeks out, though. What was happening is that people were discounting those.
So far I'm not seeing the evidence Trump has a clear path here, so I don't think he's value at current prices. But, if the betting starts to seriously diverge from the evidence and straws in the wind, I will.
One profitable strategy for me, so far, on Trump has been to back him for modest amounts every time the market reacts to something outrageous he's said. But DYOR.
Indeed: I think you said that we needed to see Leave approximately seven points ahead on the eve of polling
Yes, i did say that. Although so did one or two in camp Leave as well.
My final prediction was 51.5 to 48.5 for Remain based on a 69% turnout. That was based on the YouGov final poll (which I think was a 4 point Leave lead from memory)
In the end, I massively overestimated how much chickening out would occur in the polling booth.
At the end of the day, not that many people were scared of voting Leave of those who declared an intention to do so.
Morbid and tasteless as it is (and it is) it might be interesting to speculate what the Leave vote would have been were it not for the tragic murder of Jo Cox.
If Matthew Godwin's research is to be believed, Leave were ahead by about 12% shortly before.
Personally, I don't think much - but it might have been the difference between a Leave win of 54% to 46%, and what we actually got.
Mr. Topping, parties can put that in their manifesto, or not, and win an election, or not, rather than unelected foreigners dictating such things. We could call it 'democracy'
The EU does not have a veto over the WTO. It generally works by consensus. The existing WTO rules are already agreed and we and the EU are part of them. The EU does not get to say, if the UK walks with no deal under Article 50, that the WTO rules don't apply. They do and will.
@prospect_uk: Britain is currently only a member of the WTO via the EU. When we try to re-join, 162 members must agree the terms https://t.co/gcK9EUcF2V
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
Not really relevant. The WTO has rules, as they exist now, we can play by those rules or not if the countries in the EU decide otherwise. Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU's most important countries, and they do have WTO obligations, what do you think the likely outcome will be.
Honestly, some people on here seem never to have negotiated anything in their lives. In my working days I would love to have come up against them across the table, I would have secured a fantastic deal for my side.
What do I think the outcome will be? I expect the talks to drag on and ultimately end in a fudge, or possibly, get stuck in the mud. I don't expect to see a lot of brinkmanship or quick fire deals, because we are dealing with politics and serving special interests.
To take the WTO negotiations as an example. A stumbling block is the level of agricultural subsidy and quotas in the EU. Other non-EU countries dislike them intensely and as the UK membership is coming up for reappraisal they have some clout. The UK could clear the barnacles by agreeing to no subsidies or quotas on beef cattle, say. Our WTO membership is reaffirmed but in the process our beef industry is decimated. Is Theresa May prepared to look herself in the mirror and say, I'm OK with that? Or will she think, maybe we need to think of a different way of doing this? And that's just one special interest. Our negotiations will cross hundreds of them
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
By leaving the EU the UK is opting out of free trade. It's a multilateral arrangement and by far our most important one. Nothing will replace it.
The EU is no longer about free trade, it's about protectionism. If it's about free trade what do we have to worry about?
Trade within the internal market is free. Protectionism only applies externally - ie when we leave. The EU represents seven out of our ten top trading partners plus honorary member Switzerland, making 8. The other two, the USA and China, are more protectionist again than the EU
Bullshit again. Please tell me how HSBC UK can offer banking services to a German across the national border, nor via a subsidiary. Free market my arse. More federalist bullshit as always.
HSBC UK can set up an operating arm in Frankfurt and that operating arm need not be regulated by the FMA. It can just buy some telephones and get on with it.
Was that your question? Or have I misunderstood?
So a German subsidiary.
A subsidiary or just an office in Germany. Not a German subsidiary.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
I agree up to a point. The Remaindered seem very reluctant to get on side with the referendum result. The sky hasn't fallen in but loads of them seem to get great pleasure out of saying "but it will, it will", desperate to promote that by their interventions so that it's their timing that was awry not the actual prediction(s). Personally I'd like to see those shits fuck off before Europe.
Remainers are perfectly willing to get onside with the referendum result. We have voted to leave and most people will be imperceptibly worse off. Not the end of the world, and few serious Remainers said anything other than there would be a diminution of aggregate wealth (and to a lesser extent a diminution per capita).
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?
Every voter knew why he or her was voting for whatever they voted for. It is typical Remaindered rhetoric to content that Remaindered voters knew better than Brexiters why they voted how they did, being far better educated don't you know.
As for Remaindereds being "interested", that is self evidently true of anyone expressing an opinion. It's the starting point in formulating that opinion that I am referencing.
I don't think many people on either side of the argument understood the issues in play or the realities of their vote.
Even enlightened PBers have selective memories. @Richard_Tyndall for example pointed out a concrete lack of sovereignty in the VAT on home energy issue. It was also used in the Leave campaign.
Are we now expecting the government to zero rate VAT on home energy supplies?
That sort of thing.
Are we now expecting the government to zero rate VAT on home energy supplies?
We can't. We haven't left yet.
But in the future any political party can put zero-rating of energy VAT in their manifestos.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Exactly so. The deal will be shoddy unless the EU do think we are prepared to walk away
Difference between May and Cameron is that I think the former could quite possibly threaten to do so, whereas the latter never would.
PM May winning GE2015 would probably have got a better deal and we'd probably have just narrowly voted to Remain.
Cameron's honours for REMAINERS has laid the capstone on his reputation.
No it hasn't. There was nothing egregious in his honours suggestions compared to how honours have been portrayed as long as I have been alive. His reputation will be defined by Brexit, and either tempered or worsened by how one feels about the coalition years, the rest is nonsense.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Yep. My recent time in Africa has changed my perspective. I would prefer a soft Brexit with qualified Free Movement and the Single Market, but if the Europeans won't cut us a reasonable deal (which is in their interest too), so be it.
There's an enormous world out there, compared to which our trade disputes are picayune.
We will have to fight for ourselves, and be self reliant. It will be bracing. It will be painful. It will be good for us. We will survive, and prosper.
If Donald Trump wins, we'll be moving into a world where free trade is in decline, sadly.
He's not going to win. And if he did win, I expect he'd turn out to be surprisingly centrist, apart from a few mad gestures to please the troops.
He's a liberal New York billionaire.
That was what I'd previously hoped. I no longer believe it.
I'm beginning to wonder if some of the Dems are right and that he is not stable mentally.
I wonder if he's realised he doesn't want the job, and is now actively trying to disqualify himself.
Or he thinks his style has got him this far, people like it and want more of it.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Strangely, the EU gets a big say in how a WTO future would pan out for the UK as well
Not really relevant. The WTO has rules, as they exist now, we can play by those rules or not if the countries in the EU decide otherwise. Given we run a massive trade deficit with the EU's most important countries, and they do have WTO obligations, what do you think the likely outcome will be.
Honestly, some people on here seem never to have negotiated anything in their lives. In my working days I would love to have come up against them across the table, I would have secured a fantastic deal for my side.
What do I think the outcome will be? I expect the talks to drag on and ultimately end in a fudge, or possibly, get stuck in the mud. I don't expect to see a lot of brinkmanship or quick fire deals, because we are dealing with politics and serving special interests.
To take the WTO negotiations as an example. A stumbling block is the level of agricultural subsidy and quotas in the EU. Other non-EU countries dislike them intensely and as the UK membership is coming up for reappraisal they have some clout. The UK could clear the barnacles by agreeing to no subsidies or quotas on beef cattle, say. Our WTO membership is reaffirmed but in the process our beef industry is decimated. Is Theresa May prepared to look herself in the mirror and say, I'm OK with that? Or will she think, maybe we need to think of a different way of doing this? And that's just one special interest. Our negotiations will cross hundreds of them
I have no idea what you are on about? What WTO negotiations?
Mr. Topping, parties can put that in their manifesto, or not, and win an election, or not, rather than unelected foreigners dictating such things. We could call it 'democracy'
I agree. We were talking about why people voted how they did in the referendum. It is reasonable to think that some Leave voters are expecting a VAT cut on their energy bills.
The question was loaded towards telling the Brits to FO. There is no suggestion that deals work both ways.
Fuck Europe, anyroad. We're out. And we will move further away as the years pass. They will make it hard for us. So did Napoleon. We won.
Quite so, Mr. T.. The UK has to go into the negotiations prepared to say, "Fair enough, WTO rules it shall be and walk out". Anyone who goes to negotiate who is not prepared to walk away from the table will not be negotiating they will be begging".
Exactly so. The deal will be shoddy unless the EU do think we are prepared to walk away
Difference between May and Cameron is that I think the former could quite possibly threaten to do so, whereas the latter never would.
PM May winning GE2015 would probably have got a better deal and we'd probably have just narrowly voted to Remain.
Cameron's honours for REMAINERS has laid the capstone on his reputation. He really was just a self-serving Etonian tit, articulate and plausible, but helplessly snobbish, and irredeemably shallow; he was well-meaning in ways, but vastly overrated, not least by himself.
"I think I'd be rather good as prime minister". How tragicomic that seems now.
David Cameron was a fool, in quite a profound sense.
His biggest failure was his refusal to govern by anything other than through his chumocracy.
Forty years ago that'd have been called The Establishment, and with good reason.
And I think @Speedy has consistently called against Trump since ?North Carolina?
Charles, whilst you are on:
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
That's funny, as my fridge is full of post it notes reminding me to insult various people on PB...
Comments
But so is Clinton.
They're already rerunning the WW3 argument in respect of Trump's comments about NATO.
[I don't think they will but their stance is indicative of some Remainers who won't accept a democratic choice].
Or simply do what Hillary does, avoid the media and put the weight on advertising (but it costs money).
Secondly she’s Obama’s unsuitable candidate!
We really do need to up our game here – it's amateurish, the way we do things.
Deterrents only work if they are credible.
Whoever wins, we lose
The Fossils was the original nickname of Leicester Fosse, which became Leicester City in 1920.
I'm trying to think of a person, or a set of policies, that might unite America.
That said, having a US President who might be prepared to sit down with Putin and redraw the line across Europe would mean that things would get interesting...
Surely TSE isn't going to pass this year - not when he replicated his beloved Chelsea's performance in the PL so well in th PB league? [trolling overload]
this is the link for any new joiners too - 843320-227121
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/
It's free to play and the prizes are equally valuable....
Both are totally unsuitable to be President.
Best not piss them off lightly then.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/08/01/politics/sally-bradshaw-jeb-bush-donald-trump-florida/
https://twitter.com/search?q=republican+says+vote+clinton&ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^search
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-new-york-republican-congressman-says-1470145575-htmlstory.html
Fine.
We nevertheless are intrigued by the motives for the Leave vote. @Richard_Tyndall and a few other PB Leavers aside, I'm not sure the majority of Leave voters knew why they were voting Leave. Apart from immigration of course.
So we are equally intrigued by what solution we arrive at and how that tallies with expectations, such as they were.
We are still allowed to be interested in that, aren't we?
They better make sure they are securely locked away if Stephen woofe ever comes for a visit...
This is rather embarrassing, but I have a post-it note with a message to myself to apologise to you on it. Unfortunately I did not note, and cannot remember, what I'm meant to be apologising for. A quick browse through my last few posts has shown nothing apparently relevant.
So, I apologise for whatever it is I said (*) that may have caused you offence.
If you can remember, please let me know so I can apologise properly ...
(*) Perhaps multiple.
A few post-its I guess like that from PB-ers.
I imagine @SeanT's fridge is a sea of yellow.
Probably something to do with a bridge...
Difference between May and Cameron is that I think the former could quite possibly threaten to do so, whereas the latter never would.
PM May winning GE2015 would probably have got a better deal and we'd probably have just narrowly voted to Remain.
Honestly, some people on here seem never to have negotiated anything in their lives. In my working days I would love to have come up against them across the table, I would have secured a fantastic deal for my side.
Methinks a bit too much protesting and a bit of projection also.
|that's why they are among a host of countries clamouring for a trade deal with us, presumably.
As for Remaindereds being "interested", that is self evidently true of anyone expressing an opinion. It's the starting point in formulating that opinion that I am referencing.
Exactly.
Was that your question? Or have I misunderstood?
Although I'm right about the Garden Bridge. I'l try to express my utter correctness in more moderate and respectful terms in the future.
My final prediction was 51.5 to 48.5 for Remain based on a 69% turnout. That was based on the YouGov final poll (which I think was a 4 point Leave lead from memory)
In the end, I massively overestimated how much chickening out would occur in the polling booth.
At the end of the day, not that many people were scared of voting Leave of those who declared an intention to do so.
REMAIN 48%
It operates as a customs union with barriers to entry for nations outside it, but liberalises and harmonises rules within it. Of course, we know that's because of its political objectives much more than any exonomic ones.
So it builds in quite a large structural incentive for UK firms to do business inside the EU at the expense of the rest of the world. Yet we still do 55% of our trade with non-EU countries.
What that tells me is that, for a nation like the UK, there'd be quite a bit of business model disruption from leaving the EU to WTO rules but very little to harm our long term economic health, and possibly quite the opposite.
[I'm halfway through the second volume of Napoleon's biography, by TA Dodge. Three more, but I don't possess them. May give the Gustavus Adolphus bio on Kindle a look too].
Even enlightened PBers have selective memories. @Richard_Tyndall for example pointed out a concrete lack of sovereignty in the VAT on home energy issue. It was also used in the Leave campaign.
Are we now expecting the government to zero rate VAT on home energy supplies?
That sort of thing.
@MichaelLCrick: Ukip source says vetting panel accepted all 6 other leadership cands: Duffy, James, Etheridge, Arnott, Broughton & Jones
@MichaelLCrick: So it seems Ukip vetting panel decided Wolfe not admitting drink driving offence when standing for PCC is not a problem. Late nomination is
If Matthew Godwin's research is to be believed, Leave were ahead by about 12% shortly before.
Personally, I don't think much - but it might have been the difference between a Leave win of 54% to 46%, and what we actually got.
Bloomberg has been running stories of BIG shorts in sterling ahead of this week's rate decision. Tomorrow's services data might be interesting.
To take the WTO negotiations as an example. A stumbling block is the level of agricultural subsidy and quotas in the EU. Other non-EU countries dislike them intensely and as the UK membership is coming up for reappraisal they have some clout. The UK could clear the barnacles by agreeing to no subsidies or quotas on beef cattle, say. Our WTO membership is reaffirmed but in the process our beef industry is decimated. Is Theresa May prepared to look herself in the mirror and say, I'm OK with that? Or will she think, maybe we need to think of a different way of doing this? And that's just one special interest. Our negotiations will cross hundreds of them
Are we now expecting the government to zero rate VAT on home energy supplies?
We can't. We haven't left yet.
But in the future any political party can put zero-rating of energy VAT in their manifestos.
Clinton 50 .. Trump 48
National - YouGov/Economist
Clinton 41 .. Trump 36
Which would also pander to his ego.
Forty years ago that'd have been called The Establishment, and with good reason.