politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would really make Corbyn invincible is doing better th

System · July 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would really make Corbyn invincible is doing better than the 59.5% of 2015

If last week’s YouGov LAB members’ polling is indeed in the right territory and the split in the 183k £25 sign-up is as reported then Corbyn is heading for a big victory when the results are announced on September 24th.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Jez We Can, but for the sake of the country he needs to go.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Mike, Shadsy does have a Corbyn share of the vote market up

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/next-party-leaders/next-labour-leader/220955569/

SouthamObserver · July 2016

The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

John_M · July 2016

The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

90% of Constituency Labour Parties who have endorsed Jeremy Corbyn in this leadership election DID NOT endorse him in last year's

Scott_P · July 2016

@Telegraph: Labour leadership contest: Legal documents reveal depth of split between Jeremy Corybn and party’s general https://t.co/bLbNhx3xFt

Sandpit · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!

chestnut · July 2016

John_M said:
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

Labour's Harold Shipman.

welshowl · July 2016

John_M said:
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

Yes but Skynet at least became self aware. Jezza's programming hasn't progressed that far.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

So far 73% of CLP's endorsed Corbyn 18% Smith 9% neutral

Sandpit · July 2016

The first time out he got 59% in a four horse race. If he can't beat that in a two horse race then he's still...

the leader, and with a mandate to screw the PLP who dared to challenge him.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.
You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!

That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

Newark CLP for Jezza makes it

Éoin ‏@LabourEoin 28m28 minutes ago Belfast, Northern Ireland
Constituency Labour Party endorsements for Labour leader thus far:

Corbyn 77%
Smith 15%
Neutral 8%

GIN1138 · July 2016

And so they return, tail between their legs, looking complete and utter fools.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/sarah-champion-unresigns-returns-labour-frontbench/

Jezza stuck to his guns (as advised) and he's won!

JackW · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:
90% of Constituency Labour Parties who have endorsed Jeremy Corbyn in this leadership election DID NOT endorse him in last year's

Surely the Labour party should now be on suicide watch ?

BudG · July 2016

John_M said:
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

Tim_B · July 2016

I still remember the days of the 60s when the Labour Party was trying to recruit more women members. There was a wonderful headline in the Daily Express (also home of the headline "Fog in Channel - Continent Cut Off") saying "Wilson to get 25,000 Women in Labour". Even as a kid that was worth a laugh.

Sandpit · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.
You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.

Bloody lawyers, get rid of the lot of them and make the world a better place!

Tissue_Price · July 2016

What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).

v Burnham: 64-36?
v Cooper: 67-33?

Jonathan · July 2016

CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

Tissue_Price · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:
Newark CLP for Jezza makes it

Éoin ‏@LabourEoin 28m28 minutes ago Belfast, Northern Ireland
Constituency Labour Party endorsements for Labour leader thus far:

Corbyn 77%
Smith 15%
Neutral 8%

Early days but these are looking grim for Smith.

HurstLlama · July 2016

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

John_M · July 2016

BudG said:

John_M said:
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.

BudG · July 2016

SouthamObserver said:
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

Something else to bear in mind is the crowd-funded court case taken out by members who joined since Jan 2016. If the judge decides there has been a breach of contract, it is possible that there will be an extra 130,000 votes that will break heavily in favour of JC.

Tim_B · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.
You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.

That's just to ensure it remains a going concern

Tissue_Price · July 2016

Jonathan said:
CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

Disagree; and if anything they will understate Jezza.

The final 2015 results were:

Jeremy Corbyn: 152
Andy Burnham: 111
Yvette Cooper: 106
Liz Kendall: 18

bigjohnowls · July 2016

Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

GIN1138 · July 2016

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Tissue_Price said:
What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).

v Burnham: 64-36?
v Cooper: 67-33?

YouGov did poll that last time, I think your figures are right.

Sandpit · July 2016

Tissue_Price said:

bigjohnowls said:
Newark CLP for Jezza makes it

Éoin ‏@LabourEoin 28m28 minutes ago Belfast, Northern Ireland
Constituency Labour Party endorsements for Labour leader thus far:

Corbyn 77%
Smith 15%
Neutral 8%
Early days but these are looking grim for Smith.

He's been the sacrificial lamb for the PLP, and lost.

If there's going to be a split they might as well get on with it.

Just a thought - if Smith withdraws at the last possible minute before the ballots go out, how many £25ers might complain for a refund?

Tim_B · July 2016

John_M said:

BudG said:

John_M said:
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.

Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:
Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

Link

bigjohnowls · July 2016

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/labour-leadership-contest-legal-documents-reveal-depth-of-split/

Legal Challenge tomorrow & YG

John_M · July 2016

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

Quick scan (so pinch of salt required) ~ 25 seats are vulnerable to a 3% swing away.

Tissue_Price · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

Jonathan · July 2016

Tissue_Price said:

Jonathan said:
CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.
Disagree; and if anything they will understate Jezza.

The final 2015 results were:

Jeremy Corbyn: 152
Andy Burnham: 111
Yvette Cooper: 106
Liz Kendall: 18

In my experience the people that turn out at CLP meetings are not representative if those that don't. In this case there is an organised campaign to get nominations. If you think that's useful information go for it. Personally I wouldn't trust it

Artist · July 2016

It's not really a fair comparison as now Labour have an entirely new electorate to last September. In fact new members after the election outnumber the existing ones. It's entryism on an unprecedented scale. The last YouGov actually had Corbyn behind Eagle and Smith with pre 2015 election members.

MaxPB · July 2016

Jonathan said:
CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

But worrying should Jez manage to get mandatory reselections through the NEC.

ThreeQuidder · July 2016

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

The marginals are fairly evenly divided.

http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/mps-maj.htm

Tissue_Price · July 2016

Jonathan said:

Tissue_Price said:

Jonathan said:
CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.
Disagree; and if anything they will understate Jezza.

The final 2015 results were:

Jeremy Corbyn: 152
Andy Burnham: 111
Yvette Cooper: 106
Liz Kendall: 18
In my experience the people that turn out at CLP meetings are not representative if those that don't. In this case there is an organised campaign to get nominations. If you think that's useful information go for it. Personally I wouldn't trust it

I don't think they're representative but I do think they're useful. Of course the environment is far more poisonous this time and that should be taken into account.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:
Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Link

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/labour-leadership-contest-legal-documents-reveal-depth-of-split/

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:
Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Link
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/labour-leadership-contest-legal-documents-reveal-depth-of-split/

Nothing there about YouGov

tlg86 · July 2016

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.
You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!

I wonder if they could do this every year until 2019?

Alistair · July 2016

Tissue_Price said:
What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).

v Burnham: 64-36?
v Cooper: 67-33?

You are absolutely right, it is a crying shame if any AV election is not fully resolved down to the final too even if someone gets 50%+ earlier. such a wealth of information available to get the full list of transfers.

Gasman · July 2016

I don't see how Corbyn only getting 55-56% will be really bad for him - assuming that's what OGH meant in the header. He'll still be leader - for at least another 12 months even if there's another non-entity to challenge him next time. In the meantime he can continue his work to fix the rules of Labour, bring in more members/supporters etc.

On the other hand, if OGH meant bad for Labour/sanity/the country, then anything over 50.1% is pretty terrible.

HurstLlama · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

Jonathan · July 2016

MaxPB said:

Jonathan said:
CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.
But worrying should Jez manage to get mandatory reselections through the NEC.

Anything is possible in modern Labour. As a betting strategy you won't go far wrong laying anything that smacks of common sense or a route back to power.

Tissue_Price · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats

The Darlington MP was publicly anticipating a 5% swing the other day.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

MaxPB said:

Jonathan said:
CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.
But worrying should Jez manage to get mandatory reselections through the NEC.

Current attendance at CLPs not necessarily typical of more mundane CLPs to follow.

For example I am attending my first CLP since GE on Wednesday as it is the Corbyn/Smith endorsement one.

On my best behaviour!!

HurstLlama · July 2016

GIN1138 said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?

It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.

Tim_B · July 2016

The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

MP_SE · July 2016

Labour are a truly pathetic party. When even non-political types consider them a joke you know they are in a real mess.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

HurstLlama said:

GIN1138 said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.

A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

John_M · July 2016

Tim_B said:

John_M said:

BudG said:

John_M said:
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics

Thanks Tim. I still maintain that any candidate being booed at their own convention is possibly on a sticky wicket. However, I know my limitations

.

US politics is far too yar boo sucks. I prefer the elegant, refined and cultured rhetoric that we've all seen so much of during (and after) the EUref.

Speedy · July 2016

So the only thing we don't know is if the margin of victory for Corbyn will be larger or smaller than his last one.

As I said he might get more than last time but not much higher, I say that Corbyn can get low 60's max.

AndreaParma_82 · July 2016

Supporting noms tonight so far

Newark: Corbyn 42 Smith 11
Reading East: Smith 54.8% Corbyn 45.2%
Reading West: Corbyn 61.6 Smith 38.4%

MaxPB · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats

With a current notional majority of 24 on the new boundaries plus 40 gains and say 7 losses to the Lib Dems and 5 losses to UKIP I make that a majority of over 80 based on a 600 seat house.

Speedy · July 2016

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

My prediction for the next GE has been consistent since last summer:

CON 38
LAB 31
UKIP 13
LD 8
SNP 5
GRN 3

No change since the last one.

Y0kel · July 2016

Those who want rid of Corbyn must dig in and just grind him down.

Its as simple as that.

Tissue_Price · July 2016

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.

brokenwheel · July 2016

Four more days of this?

Geez

Jonathan · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:

HurstLlama said:

GIN1138 said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

Interesting question, bet. Will Corbyn (assuming he fights a GE) get more votes than Blair in safe seats

Tim_B · July 2016

John_M said:

Tim_B said:

John_M said:

BudG said:

John_M said:
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics
I still maintain that any candidate being booed at their own convention is possibly on a sticky wicket. However, I know my limitations .

US politics is far too yar boo sucks. I prefer the elegant, refined and cultured rhetoric that we've all seen so much of during (and after) the EUref.

It's good to know that UK politics is still the gentleman's refuge it was when I lived there.

nunu · July 2016

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

but the top 20 have a lot of London seats where housing costs are going ever higher, a killer for Tories in London.

Freggles · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:
Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.

2020 might be the general election where UNS completely breaks down.

The Tories could make massive gains just by standing still

Tissue_Price · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
2020 might be the general election where UNS completely breaks down.

The Tories could make massive gains just by standing still

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983

x2

bigjohnowls · July 2016

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/639749726666162176

For those ramping tonights poll of councillors like OGH

Here is equivalent in 2015

nunu · July 2016

Can I just make clear from the last thread I still think Hillary will win (just), but complacency of the beltway bubble could kill them.

Tim_B · July 2016

brokenwheel said:
Four more days of this?

Geez

Think of it as pantomime. You just have to guess which are Charlie Cairoli and Paul.

Jonathan · July 2016

Freggles said:

bigjohnowls said:
Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister

Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.

Speedy · July 2016

Tim_B said:
The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.

So far we had:

New email scandal.
The resignation of the DNC chair.
Delegates booing and heckling the ex-DNC chair.
Delegates booing and heckling Sanders when he tries to make the case for Hillary.
Threats of mass deselections of dissident delegates.

And that's just day one.

Tissue_Price · July 2016

nunu said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
but the top 20 have a lot of London seats where housing costs are going ever higher, a killer for Tories in London.

Doesn't matter. Corbyn.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

Jonathan said:

Freggles said:

bigjohnowls said:
Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.

Who can command a majority in his own party by your definition?

bigjohnowls · July 2016

Freggles said:

bigjohnowls said:
Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister

As good a chance if not better than a return to New Labour though

HurstLlama · July 2016

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.

I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.

MattW · July 2016

nunu said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
but the top 20 have a lot of London seats where housing costs are going ever higher, a killer for Tories in London.

BREXIT Crash coming !!!

williamglenn · July 2016

Speedy said:

Tim_B said:
The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!
Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.

You know things are bad when they think that the FBI proving that the Russians had access to their emails would be a positive news story for them.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.

In fact New Lab do worse in Northern heartlands like Chesterfield

JackW · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:
A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

As opposed to a Jezza led Labour that would be great for all .... except Labour.

I'm not quite sure what level of delusion the Labour party has reached. A simple psychotic break or a more permanent level of madness. What we do know is they have reached doolally central.

John_M · July 2016

We can't really speak about GE 2020 results as we don't know what Labour's policy portfolio will be. If he serves up the full Foot menu, I think they'll be in trouble. It all depends how well his team can temper his ideals.

Tissue_Price · July 2016

HurstLlama said:

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.

He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.

Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.

PlatoSaid · July 2016

Priebus on DNC leak: 'The Russians didn't write the emails' https://t.co/f5NsuQj4Lg | AP Photo https://t.co/Vib2DmpQkW

Scott_P · July 2016

@tnewtondunn: A Labour donor has “at least a 50/50 chance” of forcing Jeremy Corbyn off the leadership ballot in court tomorrow; https://t.co/NGWNiQQ8sX

AndreaParma_82 · July 2016

Kensington CLP supporting nomination

Corbyn 41 Smith 6

First London CLP to nominate Corbyn this time after losses in Richmond Park and Westminster North.
London was the area with the strongest swing away from JC when they were doing confidence motions in the middle of the MPs coup.
Kensington remains a reliable CLP for the hard left though

SouthamObserver · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:

HurstLlama said:

GIN1138 said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

Northern Labour supporters are itching to vote in a party led by a pro-IRA Trot from Islington who supports unlimited immigration, scrapping trident and abolishing the monarchy. If they can't have that they'll vote for a Thatcherite party instead :-D

nunu · July 2016

MattW said:

nunu said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
but the top 20 have a lot of London seats where housing costs are going ever higher, a killer for Tories in London.
BREXIT Crash coming !!!

As much as a fall in London house prices would be welcome, foreign cash buyers are piling in due to a ten percent fall.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

JackW said:

bigjohnowls said:
A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats
As opposed to a Jezza led Labour that would be great for all .... except Labour.

I'm not quite sure what level of delusion the Labour party has reached. A simple psychotic break or a more permanent level of madness. What we do know is they have reached doolally central.

Old Lab voters have gone to UKIP.

Corbyn takes party back to its roots of being on the side of WWC

Jonathan · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:

Jonathan said:

Freggles said:

bigjohnowls said:
Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.
Who can command a majority in his own party by your definition?

If there were only Labour MPs in the Commons, Smith would be PM. Corbyn might not even get to be LOTO FFS.

That's the damage Jezza has done. How monumentally he has fucked it up. He thinks he's running for president. Sadly since we're a parliamentary democracy.

SouthamObserver · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:

Freggles said:

bigjohnowls said:
Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
As good a chance if not better than a return to New Labour though

Who is proposing a return to New Labour?

JackW · July 2016

Freggles said:
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister

Excuse me .... that's my line !! ..

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.

Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.

The thread I nearly wrote this weekend was there's no way Labour could survive a general election campaign where Corbyn is front and centre.

6 weeks of 170 odd Labour MPs pretty much saying their leader is shite....

nunu · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:
Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.

In fact New Lab do worse in Northern heartlands like Chesterfield

That's not where elections are won or lost tho, its the marginals that matter, where they are behind 14% apparently.

Speedy · July 2016

williamglenn said:

Speedy said:

Tim_B said:
The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!
Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.
You know things are bad when they think that the FBI proving that the Russians had access to their emails would be a positive news story for them.

The Democratic delegates aren't buying the excuses, they are booing and disrupting speeches all the time:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/757680633623773187

They make the republicans look like a disciplined bunch.

John_M · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.

Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.
The thread I nearly wrote this weekend was there's no way Labour could survive a general election campaign where Corbyn is front and centre.

6 weeks of 170 odd Labour MPs pretty much saying their leader is shite....

We know what Jeremy would like to say. Unilateral nuclear disarmament. An open door immigration policy. Renationalisation (railways might be popular). I really do think he'd lose the North.

Tim_B · July 2016

Debbie Wasserman Schultz being called "Ted Cruz with a perm".

Trump (the perm quote is not his) is just eating up all this Democratic stuff about the Russians hacking the emails and Trump being in league with the Russians. He loves it. - and it's not going away. Trump will be on the road all week. It's becoming a soap opera.

Jonathan · July 2016

Corbyn supporters would rather defeat Blairites* than Tories.

* Definition: a Labour voter who does not like St Jez.

Tim_B · July 2016

williamglenn said:

Speedy said:

Tim_B said:
The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!
Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.
You know things are bad when they think that the FBI proving that the Russians had access to their emails would be a positive news story for them.

The FBI probe apparently started in June with the first DNC email leak.

I can see lots of jokes coming about Hillary's emails vs Bill's females.

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