Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would really make Corbyn invincible is doing better th

SystemSystem Posts: 12,466
edited July 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would really make Corbyn invincible is doing better than the 59.5% of 2015

If last week’s YouGov LAB members’ polling is indeed in the right territory and the split in the 183k £25 sign-up is as reported then Corbyn is heading for a big victory when the results are announced on September 24th.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921
    edited July 2016
    Jez We Can, but for the sake of the country he needs to go.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921
    edited July 2016
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046
    The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    90% of Constituency Labour Parties who have endorsed Jeremy Corbyn in this leadership election DID NOT endorse him in last year's
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Telegraph: Labour leadership contest: Legal documents reveal depth of split between Jeremy Corybn and party’s general https://t.co/bLbNhx3xFt
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

    You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    John_M said:

    The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

    Labour's Harold Shipman.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    John_M said:

    The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

    Yes but Skynet at least became self aware. Jezza's programming hasn't progressed that far.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    edited July 2016
    So far 73% of CLP's endorsed Corbyn 18% Smith 9% neutral
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    The first time out he got 59% in a four horse race. If he can't beat that in a two horse race then he's still...

    the leader, and with a mandate to screw the PLP who dared to challenge him.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921
    Sandpit said:

    The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

    You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
    That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    Newark CLP for Jezza makes it

    Éoin ‏@LabourEoin 28m28 minutes ago Belfast, Northern Ireland
    Constituency Labour Party endorsements for Labour leader thus far:

    Corbyn 77%
    Smith 15%
    Neutral 8%
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,908
    edited July 2016
    And so they return, tail between their legs, looking complete and utter fools.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/sarah-champion-unresigns-returns-labour-frontbench/

    Jezza stuck to his guns (as advised) and he's won!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    90% of Constituency Labour Parties who have endorsed Jeremy Corbyn in this leadership election DID NOT endorse him in last year's

    Surely the Labour party should now be on suicide watch ?
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    John_M said:

    The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

    :)

    How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I still remember the days of the 60s when the Labour Party was trying to recruit more women members. There was a wonderful headline in the Daily Express (also home of the headline "Fog in Channel - Continent Cut Off") saying "Wilson to get 25,000 Women in Labour". Even as a kid that was worth a laugh.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Sandpit said:

    The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

    You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
    That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.
    Bloody lawyers, get rid of the lot of them and make the world a better place! ;)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).

    v Burnham: 64-36?
    v Cooper: 67-33?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Newark CLP for Jezza makes it

    Éoin ‏@LabourEoin 28m28 minutes ago Belfast, Northern Ireland
    Constituency Labour Party endorsements for Labour leader thus far:

    Corbyn 77%
    Smith 15%
    Neutral 8%

    Early days but these are looking grim for Smith.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    BudG said:

    John_M said:

    The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

    :)

    How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

    Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    edited July 2016

    The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

    Something else to bear in mind is the crowd-funded court case taken out by members who joined since Jan 2016. If the judge decides there has been a breach of contract, it is possible that there will be an extra 130,000 votes that will break heavily in favour of JC.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Sandpit said:

    The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

    You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
    That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.
    That's just to ensure it remains a going concern ;)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Jonathan said:

    CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

    Disagree; and if anything they will understate Jezza.

    The final 2015 results were:

    Jeremy Corbyn: 152
    Andy Burnham: 111
    Yvette Cooper: 106
    Liz Kendall: 18
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,908
    edited July 2016

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921
    edited July 2016

    What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).

    v Burnham: 64-36?
    v Cooper: 67-33?

    YouGov did poll that last time, I think your figures are right.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Newark CLP for Jezza makes it

    Éoin ‏@LabourEoin 28m28 minutes ago Belfast, Northern Ireland
    Constituency Labour Party endorsements for Labour leader thus far:

    Corbyn 77%
    Smith 15%
    Neutral 8%

    Early days but these are looking grim for Smith.
    He's been the sacrificial lamb for the PLP, and lost.

    If there's going to be a split they might as well get on with it.

    Just a thought - if Smith withdraws at the last possible minute before the ballots go out, how many £25ers might complain for a refund? ;)
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    John_M said:

    BudG said:

    John_M said:

    The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

    :)

    How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

    Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
    Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921

    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

    Link
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    Quick scan (so pinch of salt required) ~ 25 seats are vulnerable to a 3% swing away.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    There are indeed plenty.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107

    Jonathan said:

    CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

    Disagree; and if anything they will understate Jezza.

    The final 2015 results were:

    Jeremy Corbyn: 152
    Andy Burnham: 111
    Yvette Cooper: 106
    Liz Kendall: 18
    In my experience the people that turn out at CLP meetings are not representative if those that don't. In this case there is an organised campaign to get nominations. If you think that's useful information go for it. Personally I wouldn't trust it
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    It's not really a fair comparison as now Labour have an entirely new electorate to last September. In fact new members after the election outnumber the existing ones. It's entryism on an unprecedented scale. The last YouGov actually had Corbyn behind Eagle and Smith with pre 2015 election members.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,992
    Jonathan said:

    CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

    But worrying should Jez manage to get mandatory reselections through the NEC.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    The marginals are fairly evenly divided.

    http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/mps-maj.htm
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

    Disagree; and if anything they will understate Jezza.

    The final 2015 results were:

    Jeremy Corbyn: 152
    Andy Burnham: 111
    Yvette Cooper: 106
    Liz Kendall: 18
    In my experience the people that turn out at CLP meetings are not representative if those that don't. In this case there is an organised campaign to get nominations. If you think that's useful information go for it. Personally I wouldn't trust it
    I don't think they're representative but I do think they're useful. Of course the environment is far more poisonous this time and that should be taken into account.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925

    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

    Link
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/labour-leadership-contest-legal-documents-reveal-depth-of-split/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    There are indeed plenty.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921

    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

    Link
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/labour-leadership-contest-legal-documents-reveal-depth-of-split/
    Nothing there about YouGov
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,587
    Sandpit said:

    The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

    You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
    I wonder if they could do this every year until 2019?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).

    v Burnham: 64-36?
    v Cooper: 67-33?

    You are absolutely right, it is a crying shame if any AV election is not fully resolved down to the final too even if someone gets 50%+ earlier. such a wealth of information available to get the full list of transfers.
  • GasmanGasman Posts: 132
    I don't see how Corbyn only getting 55-56% will be really bad for him - assuming that's what OGH meant in the header. He'll still be leader - for at least another 12 months even if there's another non-entity to challenge him next time. In the meantime he can continue his work to fix the rules of Labour, bring in more members/supporters etc.

    On the other hand, if OGH meant bad for Labour/sanity/the country, then anything over 50.1% is pretty terrible.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

    Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

    But worrying should Jez manage to get mandatory reselections through the NEC.
    Anything is possible in modern Labour. As a betting strategy you won't go far wrong laying anything that smacks of common sense or a route back to power.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    There are indeed plenty.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats
    The Darlington MP was publicly anticipating a 5% swing the other day.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

    But worrying should Jez manage to get mandatory reselections through the NEC.
    Current attendance at CLPs not necessarily typical of more mundane CLPs to follow.

    For example I am attending my first CLP since GE on Wednesday as it is the Corbyn/Smith endorsement one.

    On my best behaviour!!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    GIN1138 said:

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
    It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

    During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited July 2016
    Labour are a truly pathetic party. When even non-political types consider them a joke you know they are in a real mess.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925

    GIN1138 said:

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
    It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
    A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    Tim_B said:

    John_M said:

    BudG said:

    John_M said:

    The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

    :)

    How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

    Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
    Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics ;)
    Thanks Tim. I still maintain that any candidate being booed at their own convention is possibly on a sticky wicket. However, I know my limitations :).

    US politics is far too yar boo sucks. I prefer the elegant, refined and cultured rhetoric that we've all seen so much of during (and after) the EUref.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    So the only thing we don't know is if the margin of victory for Corbyn will be larger or smaller than his last one.

    As I said he might get more than last time but not much higher, I say that Corbyn can get low 60's max.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Supporting noms tonight so far

    Newark: Corbyn 42 Smith 11
    Reading East: Smith 54.8% Corbyn 45.2%
    Reading West: Corbyn 61.6 Smith 38.4%
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,992

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    There are indeed plenty.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats
    With a current notional majority of 24 on the new boundaries plus 40 gains and say 7 losses to the Lib Dems and 5 losses to UKIP I make that a majority of over 80 based on a 600 seat house.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

    Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
    My prediction for the next GE has been consistent since last summer:

    CON 38
    LAB 31
    UKIP 13
    LD 8
    SNP 5
    GRN 3

    No change since the last one.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Those who want rid of Corbyn must dig in and just grind him down.

    Its as simple as that.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

    Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
    It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Four more days of this?

    Geez
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107

    GIN1138 said:

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
    It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
    A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats
    Interesting question, bet. Will Corbyn (assuming he fights a GE) get more votes than Blair in safe seats
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    John_M said:

    Tim_B said:

    John_M said:

    BudG said:

    John_M said:

    The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

    :)

    How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

    Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
    Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics ;)
    I still maintain that any candidate being booed at their own convention is possibly on a sticky wicket. However, I know my limitations :).

    US politics is far too yar boo sucks. I prefer the elegant, refined and cultured rhetoric that we've all seen so much of during (and after) the EUref.
    It's good to know that UK politics is still the gentleman's refuge it was when I lived there.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    There are indeed plenty.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    but the top 20 have a lot of London seats where housing costs are going ever higher, a killer for Tories in London.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

    Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
    It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
    2020 might be the general election where UNS completely breaks down.

    The Tories could make massive gains just by standing still
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

    Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
    It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
    2020 might be the general election where UNS completely breaks down.

    The Tories could make massive gains just by standing still
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983

    x2
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/639749726666162176

    For those ramping tonights poll of councillors like OGH

    Here is equivalent in 2015
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Can I just make clear from the last thread I still think Hillary will win (just), but complacency of the beltway bubble could kill them.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Four more days of this?

    Geez

    Think of it as pantomime. You just have to guess which are Charlie Cairoli and Paul.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Freggles said:

    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
    Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tim_B said:

    The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

    During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

    Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.

    So far we had:

    New email scandal.
    The resignation of the DNC chair.
    Delegates booing and heckling the ex-DNC chair.
    Delegates booing and heckling Sanders when he tries to make the case for Hillary.
    Threats of mass deselections of dissident delegates.

    And that's just day one.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    nunu said:

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    There are indeed plenty.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    but the top 20 have a lot of London seats where housing costs are going ever higher, a killer for Tories in London.
    Doesn't matter. Corbyn.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    Jonathan said:

    Freggles said:

    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
    Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.
    Who can command a majority in his own party by your definition?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    Freggles said:

    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
    As good a chance if not better than a return to New Labour though
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

    Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
    It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
    I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

    Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

    Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,105
    nunu said:

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    There are indeed plenty.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    but the top 20 have a lot of London seats where housing costs are going ever higher, a killer for Tories in London.
    BREXIT Crash coming !!!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,196
    Speedy said:

    Tim_B said:

    The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

    During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

    Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.
    You know things are bad when they think that the FBI proving that the Russians had access to their emails would be a positive news story for them.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.

    In fact New Lab do worse in Northern heartlands like Chesterfield
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

    As opposed to a Jezza led Labour that would be great for all .... except Labour.

    I'm not quite sure what level of delusion the Labour party has reached. A simple psychotic break or a more permanent level of madness. What we do know is they have reached doolally central.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    We can't really speak about GE 2020 results as we don't know what Labour's policy portfolio will be. If he serves up the full Foot menu, I think they'll be in trouble. It all depends how well his team can temper his ideals.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

    Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
    It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
    I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

    Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

    Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
    He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.

    Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Priebus on DNC leak: 'The Russians didn't write the emails' https://t.co/f5NsuQj4Lg | AP Photo https://t.co/Vib2DmpQkW
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: A Labour donor has “at least a 50/50 chance” of forcing Jeremy Corbyn off the leadership ballot in court tomorrow; https://t.co/NGWNiQQ8sX
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Kensington CLP supporting nomination

    Corbyn 41 Smith 6

    First London CLP to nominate Corbyn this time after losses in Richmond Park and Westminster North.
    London was the area with the strongest swing away from JC when they were doing confidence motions in the middle of the MPs coup.
    Kensington remains a reliable CLP for the hard left though
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046

    GIN1138 said:

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
    It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
    A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

    Northern Labour supporters are itching to vote in a party led by a pro-IRA Trot from Islington who supports unlimited immigration, scrapping trident and abolishing the monarchy. If they can't have that they'll vote for a Thatcherite party instead :-D

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MattW said:

    nunu said:

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    There are indeed plenty.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    but the top 20 have a lot of London seats where housing costs are going ever higher, a killer for Tories in London.
    BREXIT Crash coming !!!
    As much as a fall in London house prices would be welcome, foreign cash buyers are piling in due to a ten percent fall.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,925
    JackW said:

    A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

    As opposed to a Jezza led Labour that would be great for all .... except Labour.

    I'm not quite sure what level of delusion the Labour party has reached. A simple psychotic break or a more permanent level of madness. What we do know is they have reached doolally central.
    Old Lab voters have gone to UKIP.

    Corbyn takes party back to its roots of being on the side of WWC
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,046

    Freggles said:

    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
    As good a chance if not better than a return to New Labour though

    Who is proposing a return to New Labour?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107

    Jonathan said:

    Freggles said:

    Tonights YG JICISILOTO

    Jeremy Corbyn
    56%
    Owen Smith
    34%
    :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
    Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.
    Who can command a majority in his own party by your definition?
    If there were only Labour MPs in the Commons, Smith would be PM. Corbyn might not even get to be LOTO FFS.

    That's the damage Jezza has done. How monumentally he has fucked it up. He thinks he's running for president. Sadly since we're a parliamentary democracy.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Freggles said:

    Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister

    Excuse me .... that's my line !! .. :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,921

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

    Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
    It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
    I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

    Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

    Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
    He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.

    Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.
    The thread I nearly wrote this weekend was there's no way Labour could survive a general election campaign where Corbyn is front and centre.

    6 weeks of 170 odd Labour MPs pretty much saying their leader is shite....
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.

    In fact New Lab do worse in Northern heartlands like Chesterfield

    That's not where elections are won or lost tho, its the marginals that matter, where they are behind 14% apparently.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016

    Speedy said:

    Tim_B said:

    The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

    During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

    Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.
    You know things are bad when they think that the FBI proving that the Russians had access to their emails would be a positive news story for them.
    The Democratic delegates aren't buying the excuses, they are booing and disrupting speeches all the time:

    https://twitter.com/politico/status/757680633623773187

    They make the republicans look like a disciplined bunch.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

    So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

    On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
    Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

    Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
    It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
    I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

    Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

    Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
    He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.

    Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.
    The thread I nearly wrote this weekend was there's no way Labour could survive a general election campaign where Corbyn is front and centre.

    6 weeks of 170 odd Labour MPs pretty much saying their leader is shite....
    We know what Jeremy would like to say. Unilateral nuclear disarmament. An open door immigration policy. Renationalisation (railways might be popular). I really do think he'd lose the North.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Debbie Wasserman Schultz being called "Ted Cruz with a perm".

    Trump (the perm quote is not his) is just eating up all this Democratic stuff about the Russians hacking the emails and Trump being in league with the Russians. He loves it. - and it's not going away. Trump will be on the road all week. It's becoming a soap opera.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Corbyn supporters would rather defeat Blairites* than Tories.

    * Definition: a Labour voter who does not like St Jez.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Speedy said:

    Tim_B said:

    The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

    During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

    Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.
    You know things are bad when they think that the FBI proving that the Russians had access to their emails would be a positive news story for them.
    The FBI probe apparently started in June with the first DNC email leak.

    I can see lots of jokes coming about Hillary's emails vs Bill's females.
This discussion has been closed.