politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would really make Corbyn invincible is doing better than the 59.5% of 2015
If last week’s YouGov LAB members’ polling is indeed in the right territory and the split in the 183k £25 sign-up is as reported then Corbyn is heading for a big victory when the results are announced on September 24th.
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.
Yes but Skynet at least became self aware. Jezza's programming hasn't progressed that far.
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.
You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.
How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.
I still remember the days of the 60s when the Labour Party was trying to recruit more women members. There was a wonderful headline in the Daily Express (also home of the headline "Fog in Channel - Continent Cut Off") saying "Wilson to get 25,000 Women in Labour". Even as a kid that was worth a laugh.
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.
You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.
Bloody lawyers, get rid of the lot of them and make the world a better place!
What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.
Something else to bear in mind is the crowd-funded court case taken out by members who joined since Jan 2016. If the judge decides there has been a breach of contract, it is possible that there will be an extra 130,000 votes that will break heavily in favour of JC.
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.
How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.
Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.
You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!
That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).
v Burnham: 64-36? v Cooper: 67-33?
YouGov did poll that last time, I think your figures are right.
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.
How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.
Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Quick scan (so pinch of salt required) ~ 25 seats are vulnerable to a 3% swing away.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Disagree; and if anything they will understate Jezza.
The final 2015 results were:
Jeremy Corbyn: 152 Andy Burnham: 111 Yvette Cooper: 106 Liz Kendall: 18
In my experience the people that turn out at CLP meetings are not representative if those that don't. In this case there is an organised campaign to get nominations. If you think that's useful information go for it. Personally I wouldn't trust it
It's not really a fair comparison as now Labour have an entirely new electorate to last September. In fact new members after the election outnumber the existing ones. It's entryism on an unprecedented scale. The last YouGov actually had Corbyn behind Eagle and Smith with pre 2015 election members.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Disagree; and if anything they will understate Jezza.
The final 2015 results were:
Jeremy Corbyn: 152 Andy Burnham: 111 Yvette Cooper: 106 Liz Kendall: 18
In my experience the people that turn out at CLP meetings are not representative if those that don't. In this case there is an organised campaign to get nominations. If you think that's useful information go for it. Personally I wouldn't trust it
I don't think they're representative but I do think they're useful. Of course the environment is far more poisonous this time and that should be taken into account.
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).
v Burnham: 64-36? v Cooper: 67-33?
You are absolutely right, it is a crying shame if any AV election is not fully resolved down to the final too even if someone gets 50%+ earlier. such a wealth of information available to get the full list of transfers.
I don't see how Corbyn only getting 55-56% will be really bad for him - assuming that's what OGH meant in the header. He'll still be leader - for at least another 12 months even if there's another non-entity to challenge him next time. In the meantime he can continue his work to fix the rules of Labour, bring in more members/supporters etc.
On the other hand, if OGH meant bad for Labour/sanity/the country, then anything over 50.1% is pretty terrible.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
But worrying should Jez manage to get mandatory reselections through the NEC.
Anything is possible in modern Labour. As a betting strategy you won't go far wrong laying anything that smacks of common sense or a route back to power.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats
The Darlington MP was publicly anticipating a 5% swing the other day.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.
How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.
Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics
Thanks Tim. I still maintain that any candidate being booed at their own convention is possibly on a sticky wicket. However, I know my limitations .
US politics is far too yar boo sucks. I prefer the elegant, refined and cultured rhetoric that we've all seen so much of during (and after) the EUref.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats
With a current notional majority of 24 on the new boundaries plus 40 gains and say 7 losses to the Lib Dems and 5 losses to UKIP I make that a majority of over 80 based on a 600 seat house.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
My prediction for the next GE has been consistent since last summer:
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats
Interesting question, bet. Will Corbyn (assuming he fights a GE) get more votes than Blair in safe seats
The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.
How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.
Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.
Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics
I still maintain that any candidate being booed at their own convention is possibly on a sticky wicket. However, I know my limitations .
US politics is far too yar boo sucks. I prefer the elegant, refined and cultured rhetoric that we've all seen so much of during (and after) the EUref.
It's good to know that UK politics is still the gentleman's refuge it was when I lived there.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
2020 might be the general election where UNS completely breaks down.
The Tories could make massive gains just by standing still
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
2020 might be the general election where UNS completely breaks down.
The Tories could make massive gains just by standing still
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.
The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.
During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!
Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.
So far we had:
New email scandal. The resignation of the DNC chair. Delegates booing and heckling the ex-DNC chair. Delegates booing and heckling Sanders when he tries to make the case for Hillary. Threats of mass deselections of dissident delegates.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.
Who can command a majority in his own party by your definition?
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
As good a chance if not better than a return to New Labour though
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.
Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.
Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
In fact New Lab do worse in Northern heartlands like Chesterfield
A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats
As opposed to a Jezza led Labour that would be great for all .... except Labour.
I'm not quite sure what level of delusion the Labour party has reached. A simple psychotic break or a more permanent level of madness. What we do know is they have reached doolally central.
We can't really speak about GE 2020 results as we don't know what Labour's policy portfolio will be. If he serves up the full Foot menu, I think they'll be in trouble. It all depends how well his team can temper his ideals.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.
Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.
Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.
Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.
@tnewtondunn: A Labour donor has “at least a 50/50 chance” of forcing Jeremy Corbyn off the leadership ballot in court tomorrow; https://t.co/NGWNiQQ8sX
First London CLP to nominate Corbyn this time after losses in Richmond Park and Westminster North. London was the area with the strongest swing away from JC when they were doing confidence motions in the middle of the MPs coup. Kensington remains a reliable CLP for the hard left though
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?
It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.
A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats
Northern Labour supporters are itching to vote in a party led by a pro-IRA Trot from Islington who supports unlimited immigration, scrapping trident and abolishing the monarchy. If they can't have that they'll vote for a Thatcherite party instead :-D
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats
As opposed to a Jezza led Labour that would be great for all .... except Labour.
I'm not quite sure what level of delusion the Labour party has reached. A simple psychotic break or a more permanent level of madness. What we do know is they have reached doolally central.
Old Lab voters have gone to UKIP.
Corbyn takes party back to its roots of being on the side of WWC
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.
Who can command a majority in his own party by your definition?
If there were only Labour MPs in the Commons, Smith would be PM. Corbyn might not even get to be LOTO FFS.
That's the damage Jezza has done. How monumentally he has fucked it up. He thinks he's running for president. Sadly since we're a parliamentary democracy.
Jeremy Corbyn 56% Owen Smith 34% :: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister
As good a chance if not better than a return to New Labour though
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.
Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.
Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.
Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.
The thread I nearly wrote this weekend was there's no way Labour could survive a general election campaign where Corbyn is front and centre.
6 weeks of 170 odd Labour MPs pretty much saying their leader is shite....
Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
In fact New Lab do worse in Northern heartlands like Chesterfield
That's not where elections are won or lost tho, its the marginals that matter, where they are behind 14% apparently.
How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats
Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.
I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.
Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.
Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.
Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.
The thread I nearly wrote this weekend was there's no way Labour could survive a general election campaign where Corbyn is front and centre.
6 weeks of 170 odd Labour MPs pretty much saying their leader is shite....
We know what Jeremy would like to say. Unilateral nuclear disarmament. An open door immigration policy. Renationalisation (railways might be popular). I really do think he'd lose the North.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz being called "Ted Cruz with a perm".
Trump (the perm quote is not his) is just eating up all this Democratic stuff about the Russians hacking the emails and Trump being in league with the Russians. He loves it. - and it's not going away. Trump will be on the road all week. It's becoming a soap opera.
Comments
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/next-party-leaders/next-labour-leader/220955569/
the leader, and with a mandate to screw the PLP who dared to challenge him.
Éoin @LabourEoin 28m28 minutes ago Belfast, Northern Ireland
Constituency Labour Party endorsements for Labour leader thus far:
Corbyn 77%
Smith 15%
Neutral 8%
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/sarah-champion-unresigns-returns-labour-frontbench/
Jezza stuck to his guns (as advised) and he's won!
How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.
v Burnham: 64-36?
v Cooper: 67-33?
So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.
The final 2015 results were:
Jeremy Corbyn: 152
Andy Burnham: 111
Yvette Cooper: 106
Liz Kendall: 18
Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.
If there's going to be a split they might as well get on with it.
Just a thought - if Smith withdraws at the last possible minute before the ballots go out, how many £25ers might complain for a refund?
Legal Challenge tomorrow & YG
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/mps-maj.htm
On the other hand, if OGH meant bad for Labour/sanity/the country, then anything over 50.1% is pretty terrible.
Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.
For example I am attending my first CLP since GE on Wednesday as it is the Corbyn/Smith endorsement one.
On my best behaviour!!
During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!
US politics is far too yar boo sucks. I prefer the elegant, refined and cultured rhetoric that we've all seen so much of during (and after) the EUref.
As I said he might get more than last time but not much higher, I say that Corbyn can get low 60's max.
Newark: Corbyn 42 Smith 11
Reading East: Smith 54.8% Corbyn 45.2%
Reading West: Corbyn 61.6 Smith 38.4%
CON 38
LAB 31
UKIP 13
LD 8
SNP 5
GRN 3
No change since the last one.
Its as simple as that.
Geez
The Tories could make massive gains just by standing still
x2
For those ramping tonights poll of councillors like OGH
Here is equivalent in 2015
So far we had:
New email scandal.
The resignation of the DNC chair.
Delegates booing and heckling the ex-DNC chair.
Delegates booing and heckling Sanders when he tries to make the case for Hillary.
Threats of mass deselections of dissident delegates.
And that's just day one.
Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.
Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.
In fact New Lab do worse in Northern heartlands like Chesterfield
I'm not quite sure what level of delusion the Labour party has reached. A simple psychotic break or a more permanent level of madness. What we do know is they have reached doolally central.
Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.
Corbyn 41 Smith 6
First London CLP to nominate Corbyn this time after losses in Richmond Park and Westminster North.
London was the area with the strongest swing away from JC when they were doing confidence motions in the middle of the MPs coup.
Kensington remains a reliable CLP for the hard left though
Corbyn takes party back to its roots of being on the side of WWC
That's the damage Jezza has done. How monumentally he has fucked it up. He thinks he's running for president. Sadly since we're a parliamentary democracy.
6 weeks of 170 odd Labour MPs pretty much saying their leader is shite....
https://twitter.com/politico/status/757680633623773187
They make the republicans look like a disciplined bunch.
Trump (the perm quote is not his) is just eating up all this Democratic stuff about the Russians hacking the emails and Trump being in league with the Russians. He loves it. - and it's not going away. Trump will be on the road all week. It's becoming a soap opera.
* Definition: a Labour voter who does not like St Jez.
I can see lots of jokes coming about Hillary's emails vs Bill's females.