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Mike, Shadsy does have a Corbyn share of the vote market up

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/next-party-leaders/next-labour-leader/220955569/

The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

@Telegraph: Labour leadership contest: Legal documents reveal depth of split between Jeremy Corybn and party’s general https://t.co/bLbNhx3xFt

So far 73% of CLP's endorsed Corbyn 18% Smith 9% neutral

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!

That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.

And so they return, tail between their legs, looking complete and utter fools.

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/sarah-champion-unresigns-returns-labour-frontbench/

Jezza stuck to his guns (as advised) and he's won!

John_M said:

The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

SouthamObserver said:

The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

You have to say, hats off to whoever realised the £3 amount wasn't in the constitution, and just found nearly £4m for the party coffers!

That has to be the best money raising scheme this month, and bear in mind Nabarro's have this month told their staff to bill clients even if their solicitors are on the bog.

Bloody lawyers, get rid of the lot of them and make the world a better place!

CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

SouthamObserver said:

The result to watch is how full members vote. The £25ers are a shoe-in for Corbyn.

Something else to bear in mind is the crowd-funded court case taken out by members who joined since Jan 2016. If the judge decides there has been a breach of contract, it is possible that there will be an extra 130,000 votes that will break heavily in favour of JC.

Jonathan said:

CLP endorsements are largely meaningless.

Disagree; and if anything they will understate Jezza.

The final 2015 results were:

Jeremy Corbyn: 152
Andy Burnham: 111
Yvette Cooper: 106
Liz Kendall: 18

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?

Tissue_Price said:

What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).

v Burnham: 64-36?
v Cooper: 67-33?

YouGov did poll that last time, I think your figures are right.

John_M said:

BudG said:

John_M said:

The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.

Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/labour-leadership-contest-legal-documents-reveal-depth-of-split/

Legal Challenge tomorrow & YG

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

It's not really a fair comparison as now Labour have an entirely new electorate to last September. In fact new members after the election outnumber the existing ones. It's entryism on an unprecedented scale. The last YouGov actually had Corbyn behind Eagle and Smith with pre 2015 election members.

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

Link

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/labour-leadership-contest-legal-documents-reveal-depth-of-split/

bigjohnowls said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

Link

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/25/labour-leadership-contest-legal-documents-reveal-depth-of-split/

Nothing there about YouGov

Tissue_Price said:

What do we think Corbyn would have got if the AV preferences had been fully resolved? (Interesting also to consider who he'd have been up against - I reckon that would have been incredibly tight).

v Burnham: 64-36?
v Cooper: 67-33?

You are absolutely right, it is a crying shame if any AV election is not fully resolved down to the final too even if someone gets 50%+ earlier. such a wealth of information available to get the full list of transfers.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

I'm trying to find the link that said with a favourable boundary review, incumbency bonus (if there are mass Labour deselections) a 2.5% swing would see the Tories gain 40 odd seats

The Darlington MP was publicly anticipating a 5% swing the other day.

GIN1138 said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?

It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.

Labour are a truly pathetic party. When even non-political types consider them a joke you know they are in a real mess.

Tim_B said:

John_M said:

BudG said:

John_M said:

The Corbynator is already invincible, He can't be bargained with. He can't be reasoned with. He doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until the PLP is dead.

How is the grapefruit-sized ankle today John. Better I hope.

Not too bad Bud, thanks for asking. Back on the sticks again though I'm afraid.

Hope it gets better soon John. But look on the bright side - now's your perfect chance to get caught up on US politics

Thanks Tim. I still maintain that any candidate being booed at their own convention is possibly on a sticky wicket. However, I know my limitations .

US politics is far too yar boo sucks. I prefer the elegant, refined and cultured rhetoric that we've all seen so much of during (and after) the EUref.

Supporting noms tonight so far

Newark: Corbyn 42 Smith 11
Reading East: Smith 54.8% Corbyn 45.2%
Reading West: Corbyn 61.6 Smith 38.4%

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

My prediction for the next GE has been consistent since last summer:

CON 38
LAB 31
UKIP 13
LD 8
SNP 5
GRN 3

No change since the last one.

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.

bigjohnowls said:

HurstLlama said:

GIN1138 said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?

It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.

A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

Interesting question, bet. Will Corbyn (assuming he fights a GE) get more votes than Blair in safe seats

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

There are indeed plenty.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

but the top 20 have a lot of London seats where housing costs are going ever higher, a killer for Tories in London.

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.

2020 might be the general election where UNS completely breaks down.

The Tories could make massive gains just by standing still

https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/639749726666162176

For those ramping tonights poll of councillors like OGH

Here is equivalent in 2015

brokenwheel said:

Four more days of this?

Geez

Think of it as pantomime. You just have to guess which are Charlie Cairoli and Paul.

Tim_B said:

The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.

So far we had:

New email scandal.
The resignation of the DNC chair.
Delegates booing and heckling the ex-DNC chair.
Delegates booing and heckling Sanders when he tries to make the case for Hillary.
Threats of mass deselections of dissident delegates.

And that's just day one.

Jonathan said:

Freggles said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister

Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.

Who can command a majority in his own party by your definition?

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.

I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.

Speedy said:

Tim_B said:

The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.

You know things are bad when they think that the FBI proving that the Russians had access to their emails would be a positive news story for them.

bigjohnowls said:

A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

As opposed to a Jezza led Labour that would be great for all .... except Labour.

I'm not quite sure what level of delusion the Labour party has reached. A simple psychotic break or a more permanent level of madness. What we do know is they have reached doolally central.

HurstLlama said:

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.

I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.

He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.

Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.

@tnewtondunn: A Labour donor has “at least a 50/50 chance” of forcing Jeremy Corbyn off the leadership ballot in court tomorrow; https://t.co/NGWNiQQ8sX

bigjohnowls said:

HurstLlama said:

GIN1138 said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

Unless UKIP do something spectacular in the north?

It would be nice if some party did come through to represent the people Labour have forgotten and the Conservatives don't give a toss about. I don't see it happening, though.

A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

Northern Labour supporters are itching to vote in a party led by a pro-IRA Trot from Islington who supports unlimited immigration, scrapping trident and abolishing the monarchy. If they can't have that they'll vote for a Thatcherite party instead :-D

JackW said:

bigjohnowls said:

A return to New Labour would be great for UKIP in Northern seats

As opposed to a Jezza led Labour that would be great for all .... except Labour.

I'm not quite sure what level of delusion the Labour party has reached. A simple psychotic break or a more permanent level of madness. What we do know is they have reached doolally central.

Old Lab voters have gone to UKIP.

Corbyn takes party back to its roots of being on the side of WWC

bigjohnowls said:

Jonathan said:

Freggles said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tonights YG JICISILOTO

Jeremy Corbyn
56%
Owen Smith
34%
:: YouGov polled 1,019 Labour members between Friday and Monday. All those polled had joined Labour before the start of 2016.

Jeremy Corbyn Will Never Be Prime Minister

Can't command a majority in his own party, let alone the Commons. Heck he'd probably vote against his own manifesto.

Who can command a majority in his own party by your definition?

If there were only Labour MPs in the Commons, Smith would be PM. Corbyn might not even get to be LOTO FFS.

That's the damage Jezza has done. How monumentally he has fucked it up. He thinks he's running for president. Sadly since we're a parliamentary democracy.

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

Tissue_Price said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

How many current labour seats are actual marginals, that is to say where a modest swing away from Labour would cause them to be lost? I would guess, not many.

So, whilst Corbyn will probably not win the GE in 2020, he probably won't lose too many seats either.

On a 2.5% swing away from Labour to Con, the Tories would gain 19 seats

Thanks, young Darth Eagles, that is the sort of number I was thinking about. As a prediction I doubt it will be accurate and at the moment I can't see a swing from Lab to Con. Lab to UKIP, Lab to Greens, even Lab to LD (or, most likely, Lab to stay at home), yes fine but not Lab to Con.

Be that as it may, should such a loss happen I cannot see it upsetting Corbyn or his supporters.

It won't be a 2.5% swing if Corbyn is still in charge. It will be a total massacre.

I am keen to hear your rationale for that argument, Mr. Price, because I for one don't see any evidence for it.

Mr. Speedy, up thread suggest that at the next GE Labour will take 31% of the vote. I think that is a little too high and 28% is more likely, but we are quibbling over very small percentages.

Is Corbyn going to lead Labour to huge losses in its heartlands? I don't think so, well not unless he does something really stupid or TM does something really clever.

He is 6% behind at a point where Ed Miliband was 6% ahead. His own MPs don't back him. His support for the IRA has barely registered with Middle England yet. [It will.] There'll probably be a splintering or a split in his party. His supporters are mostly revolutionaries or middle-class champagne socialists. A reconfigured UKIP are a much bigger threat to Labour than the Tories.

Basically, why would more than 10% of the country vote for him to be Prime Minister? He'd probably make low 20s out of residual loyalty to the Labour brand.

The thread I nearly wrote this weekend was there's no way Labour could survive a general election campaign where Corbyn is front and centre.

6 weeks of 170 odd Labour MPs pretty much saying their leader is shite....

williamglenn said:

Speedy said:

Tim_B said:

The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.

You know things are bad when they think that the FBI proving that the Russians had access to their emails would be a positive news story for them.

The Democratic delegates aren't buying the excuses, they are booing and disrupting speeches all the time:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/757680633623773187

They make the republicans look like a disciplined bunch.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz being called "Ted Cruz with a perm".

Trump (the perm quote is not his) is just eating up all this Democratic stuff about the Russians hacking the emails and Trump being in league with the Russians. He loves it. - and it's not going away. Trump will be on the road all week. It's becoming a soap opera.

williamglenn said:

Speedy said:

Tim_B said:

The DNC has just issued a statement offering deep and sincere apologies to Bernie Sanders and his supporters.

During the opening prayer, Hillary Clinton's name was mentioned, and all the bernie fans started chanting his name - during the prayer!

Well the Democratic Convention has seen a much rockier start than the Republican one.

You know things are bad when they think that the FBI proving that the Russians had access to their emails would be a positive news story for them.

The FBI probe apparently started in June with the first DNC email leak.

I can see lots of jokes coming about Hillary's emails vs Bill's females.