politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A staggering 54% of Corbyn supporters in the YouGov members

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Can anyone explain why better than expected employment data strengthens the pound (rate cut less likely?)

rcs1000 said:

I personally feel ultra-low interest rates are counter-productive to economic growth. I don't think there is really any rationale for bringing interest rates down below - say - 1.5%.

PlatoSaid said:

Tim Stanley's 2p

"Trump didn’t just defy the establishment. He defied what we thought for years were the outsiders: the ideological conservatives who hitherto cast themselves as the rebels. By beating Ted Cruz, Trump actually ran an insurgency against the insurgent. He demonstrated that what people wanted wasn’t something more ideologically pure – as Cruz assumed – but something that was totally different.

That is one big positive we can take from this campaign. If Trump can win when challenging the Republican position on trade and war, maybe someone in the future can win while challenging their positions on other things. No more privatising social security.

Perhaps a more understanding take on sexual issues. Civil liberties? Reform of the police. No: not the latter. The theme of this convention is shifting from Build That Wall to Defend Our Cops. Also: We Hate Hillary. She hangs over our heads like Emmanuel Goldstein in 1984, a figure of hate."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/20/donald-trump-is-the-nominee-its-his-republican-party-now/

runnymede said:

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.

Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?

Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.

Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.

I thought that before Ian Paisley Jr (I think it was him) advised otherwise.

I think we are seeing a split between 'Tory' Church of Ireland middle classes and working class nonconformists. This is currently most obvious in DUP/UUP split but it must not be forgotton that in the Irish rebellion of 1798 (which led to abolition of Irish Parliament and direct rule) the leader was a nonconformist protestant who made common cause with the Catholics against the C of E establishment.

DUP types are protestant Irish Nationalists who call themselves British. Slowly the penny is dropping that they as protestant Irish Nationalists have far more in common with catholic Irish Nationalists than the British establiahment.

Attempts to force gay marriage and abortion on Northern Ireland have brought this home though (catholics in NI are more conservative than in RoI too), Brexit is a red herring in this regard.

Rubbish

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Likewise. Some sites (PB!) seem to be loading fine; others (such as the BBC) are loading very slowly, if at all. I'm in the West Midlands, with Plusnet.

Scott_P said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Likewise. Some sites (PB!) seem to be loading fine; others (such as the BBC) are loading very slowly, if at all. I'm in the West Midlands, with Plusnet.

Looks like a BT peering issue in London which has just cleared

5 16 ms 15 ms 15 ms core1-hu0-8-0-1.southbank.ukcore.bt.net [195.99.127.176]
6 16 ms 16 ms 16 ms peer1-et-10-1-0.telehouse.ukcore.bt.net [195.99.127.3]
7 * * * Request timed out.
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MaxPB said:

Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:

There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen not to take up UK citizenship.

vs

3.03m non-EU workers in the UK, of which only 1.192m have decided not to take up UK citizenship.

I think that's why there is a lot of anger at EU immigration that there is less of towards non-EU immigration, again I'm not saying that people look at the ONS figures and then say, oh look at all those EU immigrants refusing to take up UK nationality, it's more like something people feel. Non-EU citizens are here for the long haul, they want to make a life for themselves here and become British, the same isn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).

Thrak said:

Pauly said:

rcs1000 said:

Pauly said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

He's such a loathsome individual

Milo Yiannopoulos, rightwing writer, permanently banned from Twitter

Breitbart writer, who tweeted as @Nero, handed permanent suspension after claims he fanned flames of social media attack on Ghostbusters’ Leslie Jones

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/20/milo-yiannopoulos-nero-permanently-banned-twitter?CMP=twt_gu

Silencing bigots does nothing to stop bigotry, if anything it just stops them being challenged. Social media shouldn't be banning the most vilest.

Twitter should be working for the benefit of its shareholders. If silencing @Nero increases usage of its platform, it should do so, and vice-versa.

Clearly silencing noone is the best option for profitability, having political arguments and outrage will generate more tweets. It's not like kicking out nero allows someone else to take his finite spot...

Pauly said:

rcs1000 said:

Clearly silencing noone is the best option for profitability, having political arguments and outrage will generate more tweets. It's not like kicking out nero allows someone else to take his finite spot...

Kicking out trolls like this guy ensures greater participation. Personally, I would prefer people like this to be punished by the law (in whatever country they are in) but the law is too soft and tracking them down and exacting justice is, sadly, frowned upon.

In the UK people on Twitter are often punished by law for what they say - we have a set of laws in this respect which are imo regularly abused.

Since about 15 (?) years ago the police send official letters giving warnings to people who have not committed any offences.

And Twitter are given to hair trigger responses. Here, for example, is the leader of Sandwell Council using allegation of "harrassment" to get a critical blogger suspended by Twitter, while a police investigation into his own conduct was ongoing.
http://www.expressandstar.com/news/local-news/2015/03/18/twitter-bars-blogger-over-harassment-of-sandwell-council-leader/

And here is the blogger being reinstated one week later because Twitter had yet investigated, and two Cabinet members standing down.
http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2015/03/23/suspended-twitter-account-of-blogger-is-back/

And here is the report of an indy investigation, which recommended disciplinary action be taken, and that one Councillor tried to supress the report:
http://www.halesowennews.co.uk/news/14535579.Sandwell_Council_corruption_scandal_takes_another_twist_as_Cllr_Hussain_lodges_more_High_Court_appeals/

At least one former cabinet member is taking legal action to prevent disciplinary action.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:

There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen.

I think that's why there is a lot of anger at EU immigration that there is less of towards non-EU immigration, again I'm not saying that people look at the ONS figures and then say, oh look at all those EU immigrants refusing to take up UK nationality, it's more like something people feel. Non-EU citizens are here for the long haul, they want to make a life for themselves here and become British, the same isn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).

Now, you can say that this isn't immigration we wish to encourage (and that's fine), but it is also immigration that will naturally fall away. It will be harder to come to the UK, and most Anas will head back home.

This is why I suspect that EU immigration is likely to turn negative in the next couple of years. It'll be harder to come here, and many people were going to go home anyway.

But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.

.

...issues of cultural entropy are significant.

LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.

Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.

Sometimes one wishes one was single..

Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)

What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.

WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.

stodge said:

The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).

YellowSubmarine said:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/2707982/market?marketId=1.125398889 The first of Betfair's two markets on A50 invocation. Given the Government statements in the court case and the political pressure to invoke before the Referendum anniversary is there value in the 1.91 available on the first six months of 2017 ?

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

Yes, I'm secretly hoping that the BoE use the spectre of inflation due to the weakness of Sterling to start raising rates until we reach sort of around 1.5%, that will help to fix our savings rate and current account deficit much better than depreciation of the currency.

The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:

There are 2.21m).

But .

But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.

.

...issues of cultural entropy are significant.

LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.

Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.

Sometimes one wishes one was single..

Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)

What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.

WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.

Lol. Totally agree with your final paragraph.

This is pre-lagershed but, in my experience, they are much more fun and less priggish plus they *know what they are doing*, if you catch my drift.

Too many English girls act like something out of peep show or four weddings and a funeral, "oh, ah, I'm sorry.. Ooh, that's quite good. Oh golly.. Etc."

Pulpstar said:

Casino Jones diary

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.

Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?

Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.

Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.

Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...

That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.

Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.

Blue_rog said:

stodge said:

MaxPB said:

Yes, I'm secretly hoping that the BoE use the spectre of inflation due to the weakness of Sterling to start raising rates until we reach sort of around 1.5%, that will help to fix our savings rate and current account deficit much better than depreciation of the currency.

The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).

AIUI, QE hasn't been used for a couple of years or more

MaxPB said:

Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:

There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen not to take up UK citizenship.

vs

3.03m non-EU workers in the UK, of which only 1.192m have decided not to take up UK citizenship.

I think that's why there is a lot of anger at EU immigration that there is less of towards non-EU immigration, again I'm not saying that people look at the ONS figures and then say, oh look at all those EU immigrants refusing to take up UK nationality, it's more like something people feel. Non-EU citizens are here for the long haul, they want to make a life for themselves here and become British, the same isn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

TOPPING said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Looking at the employment statistics and this was telling:

There are 2.21m EU workers in the UK, of those 2.146m have chosen.

I thinkisn't true for EU citizens (and I'm sure our lot in Europe!).

But a very large proportion of those people aren't planning on staying: Ana from Spain who's serving you in Starbucks is here because (a) London is exciting, and (b) the job prospects were shit when she graduated. Realistically, with the Spanish job market dramatically improving, unless she meets a nice English boy, she'll be heading back in twelve months when living three to a room in Camberwell loses its appeal.

Now, you can say that this isn't immigration we wish to encourage (and that's fine), but it is also immigration that will naturally fall away. It will be harder to come to the UK, and most Anas will head back home.

This is why I suspect that EU immigration is likely to turn negative in the next couple of years. It'll be harder to come here, and many people were going to go home anyway.

But that's my point, non-EU citizens come here to settle down and EU citizens don't tend to. Agreed on the latter point about unemployed Mohammeds and Yusufs, but that is a legacy of the 70s.

.

...issues of cultural entropy are significant.

LOL I assume you are buying said coffee from a US-style coffee shop, the likes of which have invaded our high streets, rather than your local greasy spoon. Or Lyons Tea House.

Everywhere I go in London and the South East: it's a young Eastern European woman.

Sometimes one wishes one was single..

Outside of some towns where local services have just been overwhelmed, I don't think people are much bothered by Eastern European immigration, whether temporary or permanent (I expect that Polish people having children here will be permanent migrants.)

What people dislike is (a) having no control at all on who settles here and (b) some groups from outside the EU acquiring citizenship of an EU member State and then being free to move here.

WRT the attractiveness of Eastern European young women, a lot of their British counterparts are feminist shrykes, which makes the former more desirable by comparison.

runnymede said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.

Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?

Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.

Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.

Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...

That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.

Indeed, Denmark and Sweden and maybe Austria, France and the Netherlands are more likely to leave the EU than Ireland

There are lots of Protestants in NI who have a spare Irish passport now, because it can be convenient. It hasn't eroded their self-identification one jot.

If anything, it is the reverse that is happening, ie Catholic self-identification as Irish is declining. Have a look at the excellent wiki article on how NI people answered identity questions at the last census.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_Northern_Ireland

In the east of NI, in several districts, more Catholics self-describe as British than Irish. And an increasingly large share of respondents self-describe as 'Northern Irish' and many of these are Catholics too.

A border poll would be won by the 'UK' side by 2:1, possibly even more.

logical_song said:

Tim_B said:

PlatoSaid said:

Tim Stanley's 2p

"Trump didn’t just defy the establishment. He defied what we thought for years were the outsiders: the ideological conservatives who hitherto cast themselves as the rebels. By beating Ted Cruz, Trump actually ran an insurgency against the insurgent. He demonstrated that what people wanted wasn’t something more ideologically pure – as Cruz assumed – but something that was totally different.

That is one big positive we can take from this campaign. If Trump can win when challenging the Republican position on trade and war, maybe someone in the future can win while challenging their positions on other things. No more privatising social security.

Perhaps a more understanding take on sexual issues. Civil liberties? Reform of the police. No: not the latter. The theme of this convention is shifting from Build That Wall to Defend Our Cops. Also: We Hate Hillary. She hangs over our heads like Emmanuel Goldstein in 1984, a figure of hate."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/20/donald-trump-is-the-nominee-its-his-republican-party-now/

Somebody with a sense of humor has built a wall around Trump's star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

http://www.laweekly.com/news/donald-trumps-walk-of-fame-star-gets-a-baby-border-wall-photos-7157242

I thought the stars were for Movie or Pop Stars, how come Trump gets one?

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

I see Betfair finally paid up on the nomination. So, for a moment, I had almost half of my entire wealth in my Betfair account(!)

Did you get onboard the "Ben Carson bonus" ?

The GOP nomination handily settled before VP allowing for an extra top up

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.

Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?

Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.

Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.

Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...

That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.

Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.

I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?

The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.

SouthamObserver said:

British women have residency rights here. They have no need to be nice to lecherous middle aged men :-)

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.

Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?

Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.

Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.

Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...

That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.

Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.

I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?

The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stodge said:

The problem at the moment is the financial methadone known as QE which the Bank is still pumping into the market. It's absurd and needs to be stopped at once - IF the vote to LEAVE is causing no adverse consequences, why is QE still being used ? We need to get back to a more normal monetary policy with proper interest rates (I agree 1.5-2% is about right).

QE stopped in 2012 in the UK.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/Pages/qe/qe_faqs.aspx

It hasn't been unwound though which means money received from redemptions are recycled into the scheme.

John_M said:

Brexit is going to bring real inflation back to the UK, which is a classic mixed blessing. We've had services inflation of ~2.5% for a while, countered by goods deflation.

The employment figures are interesting, even if the data is pre-Brexit. Everyone looks at the headline figures, goes 'yay' and moves on.

The issue for me is that it doesn't tell us all that much. Around 15% of the work force is now self-employed (4.8 million). That covers a lot of ground, from the 16-hour per week faux nail bar business to an IT contractor.

There are ~500k LT unemployed, the same number of young unemployed and just over 2 million long term sick. That last number is astonishingly high.

It will be more informative when we get data about the quality of jobs we're generating.

PS Then there are 1.1 million lucky bastards who have retired before state pension age. I'm one of 'em huzzah!

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.

I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?

The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.

SouthamObserver said:

I like the idea of federalism in the abstract, but I am not sure how it would work in practice. How do you get round the diminution of existing wealth transfers in the UK that such a system implies?

HurstLlama said:

John_M said:

Brexit is going to bring real inflation back to the UK, which is a classic mixed blessing. We've had services inflation of ~2.5% for a while, countered by goods deflation.

The employment figures are interesting, even if the data is pre-Brexit. Everyone looks at the headline figures, goes 'yay' and moves on.

The issue for me is that it doesn't tell us all that much. Around 15% of the work force is now self-employed (4.8 million). That covers a lot of ground, from the 16-hour per week faux nail bar business to an IT contractor.

There are ~500k LT unemployed, the same number of young unemployed and just over 2 million long term sick. That last number is astonishingly high.

It will be more informative when we get data about the quality of jobs we're generating.

PS Then there are 1.1 million lucky bastards who have retired before state pension age. I'm one of 'em huzzah!

I quite agree, Mr. M. Around here we have had supposedly full employment for quite a while, anyone who wants a job and can work can get a job. Yet there still seem to be a lot of apparently healthy young men wandering the streets (usually going to or from the Co-op, where a bottle of vodka costs £12 and fags can be bought for <£6 a packet). Those that are not working in mid-Sussex are either too lazy and/or unemployable as they do not have the basic life skills to do even minimum wage jobs.

As for 2 million people being too disabled to do any sort of work, I too struggle to believe the figure is accurate. However, HMG has been trying to sort the sheep from the goats in this area for the best part of a decade, with mixed results.

All in all we have a record number of people in work (probably because we have a record number of people living in the UK) and a record percentage of the workforce gainfully employed at some level. But we still have far too many people whose lives are being wasted in idleness.</p>

Pulpstar said:

Off topic:

My Dad has become a pensioner today !

SeanT said:

For williamglenn:



Re Ireland the government has already said it wants to preserve Free Movement - the CTA - within the British Isles, so the NI/Eire border won't be an issue.

Re immigration the government has now officially abandoned its migration target - both Rudd and May have said so.

We can begin to discern what kind of Brexit May wants. It will be EEA with some bespoke stuff, so they might call it Associate Membership. There will ostensibly be some emergency control over Free Movement, but it will rarely be used: May will rely on the natural fall in net migration (now predicted to come down to 100,000-200,000 thanks to Brexit) to take the pressure off.

We will have "access" to the Single Market in return for significant contributions. We will maintain co-operation in Erasmus, 2020, some defence, etc.

I'd be perfectly happy with this. We'll have sacrificed our say in the single market in return for much greater sovereignty in all other fields. We will have ultimate control of our own borders; even though the powers will rarely be used. We will no longer be party to the fradulent charade of EU politics.

The worst fears of Remainiacs will not be realised, the fondest dreams of Leavers will still be out of reach.

John_M said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.

Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?

Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.

Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.

Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...

That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.

Indeed, Denmark and Sweden and maybe Austria, France and the Netherlands are more likely to leave the EU than Ireland

I can't see the Netherlands or Denmark leaving the EU, because they are really just part of Greater Germany, and their economies are so integrated with it.

If I were to rank in order the most likely exits from the EU, I think I'd put Italy first. With Sweden most likely behind it.

Italy is in the Euro though so if it ever left there would be an economic collapse which would make BREXIT look like a picnic. Sweden and Denmark are not and if they were ever pushed to join the eurozone they may leave. Hungary has a rightwing populist government and also is an outside contender

It's not all down to the EU, but Italy is almost literally being crucified by its membership of the Euro. I mainly started to look at Italy to wind up tyson, late of this parish (Italy has terrible economy + most racist country in EU) . However, it has a gory fascination in its own right.

For the sci-fi buffs amongst us, euro membership is an economic gom jabbar. Spain & Ireland have passed the test. France is trying to, but Italy is likely going to fail.

PS In unrelated news, Saudi Arabia has renewed its fatwa against Pokemon.

SouthamObserver said:

williamglenn said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.

Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?

Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.

Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.

Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...

That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.

Those who talk about Ireland leaving the EU to join some kind of confederation of the British Isles clearly do not know much about Irish history or the Irish identity. There is absolutely no way on God's earth it will happen. As many Leavers pointed out during the EU referendum, there are some things that are more important than money.

I agree, however it wouldn't be a bad thing for the UK to aspire to create a country which some Irish people (if not a majority) would wish to join. If nothing else it's a way of reframing the debate about devo-max for Scotland: If Scotland were independent today, what kind of arrangement might it chose to join?

The English might also finally learn something about what federalism really means.

I have been arguing for a UK constitutional convention on here for a few years now. Brexit is the perfect opportunity to convene one. It won't happen though. The current set up works well enough for the powers that be.

I like the idea of federalism in the abstract, but I am not sure how it would work in practice. How do you get round the diminution of existing wealth transfers in the UK that such a system implies?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Wow Theresa May, that was seriously impressive

PlatoSaid said:

SimonStClare said:

Theresa May says she hopes she will continue having discussions with Corbyn “for many years to come”. - Now why would she want that? (innocent face)

She's having a good first outing.

SimonStClare said:

PlatoSaid said:

SimonStClare said:

Theresa May says she hopes she will continue having discussions with Corbyn “for many years to come”. - Now why would she want that? (innocent face)

She's having a good first outing.

How’s May’s body language? – I’m only following the text.

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Bob__Sykes said:

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On Ireland: if it becomes very common for the protestant community to take dual UK/Irish nationality in order to have access to EU citizenship, then in the long term that could well lead to a change of self-identity and eventual reunification.

Have you met anyone from the Protestant NI community?

Because I have and they'd sooner sell their souls to the devil than take up Irish nationality.

Don't forget that 45% of NI voted Leave. These people are very, very, very pro-British.

Given the very close commercial, cultural and social relationships between the UK and Ireland (one might even say interdependence from the RoI's perspective), if the UK does successfully put in place new arrangements between itself and the countries of the EU, I'd be more inclined to think the RoI Government may come under pressure to join us...

That's what Daniel Hannan thinks but it might mean ditching the euro, and an awful lot else, and they love it.

Indeed, Denmark and Sweden and maybe Austria, France and the Netherlands are more likely to leave the EU than Ireland

I can't see the Netherlands or Denmark leaving the EU, because they are really just part of Greater Germany, and their economies are so integrated with it.

If I were to rank in order the most likely exits from the EU, I think I'd put Italy first. With Sweden most likely behind it.

Italy is in the Euro though so if it ever left there would be an economic collapse which would make BREXIT look like a picnic. Sweden and Denmark are not and if they were ever pushed to join the eurozone they may leave. Hungary has a rightwing populist government and also is an outside contender

SeanT said:

May proving why she was the best choice. Imagine Leadsom doing this.