politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s lucky to have avoided the scrutiny that there

A new acronym, in today's Guardian:

Bino – Brexit in name only

felix said:

Charles said:

JohnO said:

The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.

He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)

Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?

edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/boris-johnson-wont-run-for-prime-minister-after-michael-gove-ent/

Interesting - I give her credit for that.

So do I.

She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.

The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.

Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

From the man who first reported the ex industrial Labour heartlands were swinging heavily for Leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base

He's not wrong.

His articles have much improved over the last two years, getting out of the London lefty bubble has helped.
It's funny reading the comments though, they all believe he is wrong and that the working classes are yearning for Corbyn. The problem is the working classes are not the ones joining the party...

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.

Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.

That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

You are assuming that there has to even be a vote. If there is a vote it will pass even if two dozen Tories oppose it.

anotherDave said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.

Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.

That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.

We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.

rottenborough said:

anotherDave said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.

Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.

That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.

We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.

Permission invoke article 50 being voted down would be a huge kerfuffle. So I don't think they'll take the risk. The EU will be happy with a letter from the PM.

rottenborough said:

anotherDave said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.

Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.

That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.

We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.

I think you are talking at cross purposes.

I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote

But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).

ToryJim said:

rottenborough said:

GOP convention. A lotta Trump:

"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."

https://newrepublic.com/article/135114/ignore-polls-trumps-campaign-hot-mess-thats-matters

Essentially that article is suggesting that Hillary will win at a canter basically because Trump's campaign is an omniclustershambles.

She is 1.43 at the moment, my last move was 200 on her.

It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time).
The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.

It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.

Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.

Pong said:

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:

GIN1138 said:

JohnO said:

The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.

This one will probably be shorter than most...

Not sure about May's Cabinet yet, but her decision to go to Scotland, as essentially her first act as PM, was very well judged.

A lot of voters are worried about the Union (Leavers as well as Remainers). She sensed this, and responded. Moreover, she is tying Scotland into Brexit, by making sure Holyrood will have a say.

So, a pretty good start.

I think she's done OK, but within six months she'll be very unpopular whatever she does, IMO.

I'm on a 2016 election at 4/1.

It would be a huge political miscalculation not to go for it straight away IMO.

I suspect she's going to fall into the Brown trap, though.

Browns trap was showing too much ankle. Calling an election now when you've categorically ruled it out would be the reverse trap.

Speedy said:

It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time).
The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.

It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.

Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.

Bits of it are stuffed. They are in the position they are, and will go down that route, because it is what the majority of people in Turkey seem to want and approve of.

Charles said:

rottenborough said:

anotherDave said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.

Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.

That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.

We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.

I think you are talking at cross purposes.

I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote

But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).

Timeline can be extended from 2y with mutual consent.

EPG said:

Charles said:

rottenborough said:

anotherDave said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.

Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.

That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.

We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.

I think you are talking at cross purposes.

I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote

But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).

Timeline can be extended from 2y with mutual consent.

Mutual meaning unanimity between the 28 members. It would be unlikely in the circumstances that a deal had been agreed but rejected by the UK parliament.

ToryJim said:

rottenborough said:

GOP convention. A lotta Trump:

"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."

https://newrepublic.com/article/135114/ignore-polls-trumps-campaign-hot-mess-thats-matters

Essentially that article is suggesting that Hillary will win at a canter basically because Trump's campaign is an omniclustershambles.

It is.
He has almost no campaign infrastructure or staff and very limited financial resources.

Hillary has thousands of staffers and volunteers in almost all states and has outspent him by 30-1, yet her numbers are not budging, voters just don't like the dog food she is selling.
She is the democratic version of Jeb Bush.

Trump may win by pulling the same trick he did in the primaries, by having the largest share of a fractured field, he got 45%.
No one looks like getting 45%+ of the popular vote, given the unpopularity of both major candidates and the publicity for the smaller ones, so the winner will be the one who has the most committed supporters for both the candidate and party.

rottenborough said:

GOP convention. A lotta Trump:

"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."

https://newrepublic.com/article/135114/ignore-polls-trumps-campaign-hot-mess-thats-matters

That chimes with the impression given by the Spence VP pick. Not that Spence was first choice for VP, but that he was not quite as bad as Gingrich after any respectable Republican had ruled him or herself out.

Pong said:

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:

GIN1138 said:

JohnO said:

The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.

This one will probably be shorter than most...

Not sure about May's Cabinet yet, but her decision to go to Scotland, as essentially her first act as PM, was very well judged.

A lot of voters are worried about the Union (Leavers as well as Remainers). She sensed this, and responded. Moreover, she is tying Scotland into Brexit, by making sure Holyrood will have a say.

So, a pretty good start.

I think she's done OK, but within six months she'll be very unpopular whatever she does, IMO.

I'm on a 2016 election at 4/1.

It would be a huge political miscalculation not to go for it straight away IMO.

I suspect she's going to fall into the Brown trap, though.

How would a 2016 election look to the EU? Or the voters who have just participated in a referendum?

I don't think we'll have an election until we're out of the EU, 2019/2020.

(I put a small bet on 2019 when the Leadsom strategy doc leaked, saying she'd trigger A50 in September, on the assumption that we'd have a GE to coincide with the 2019 EU Parliament election)

Charles said:

I think you are talking at cross purposes.

I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote

But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).

Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.

The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.

Hannan says his 'why vote leave' book sold 20,000 copies. In a national campaign, I'd have expected more.

http://www.dw.com/en/brexit-strategist-daniel-hannan-five-years-from-now-britain-will-be-flourishing/a-19398488

Ffs England...two easy catches dropped in last half hour.

John_M said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

From the man who first reported the ex industrial Labour heartlands were swinging heavily for Leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base

He's not wrong.

Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris

He saw it coming years before anyone else.

Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.

For those who can read, the books of Thomas Frank, largely unknown in UK, about the way the GOP and the right in USA have manipulated the "cultural wars" so that working folk vote against their own economic interests, are increasingly relevant here.

From a review of "What's the matter with America":

"Deny ordinary people the chance to fight wars about resources and they will fight culture wars instead, and when the left fights on its enemy's terrain, the right is laughing all the way to the bank."

ToryJim said:

Sean_F said:

ToryJim said:

Speedy said:

It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time).
The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.

It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.

Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.

Would the military coup being a ruse to disguise the real coup be over analysing? It just doesn't smell right.

I suspect that the Reichstag Fire is the right comparison. Van Der Lubbe really did intend to burn it down, but the Nazis discovered this, and used it as an excuse for a crackdown.

Firing/arresting 2,500 judges would have been planned well in advance.

I thought it was pretty much a given nowadays that the Nazis masterminded the whole episode. If I'm going to use something as a pretext for a crackdown then I'm going to manufacture my pretext. I'm certainly not going to wait for something to turn up. Everything just seems far too convenient.

West German courts in the end failed to overturn his conviction, he was finally pardoned as a victim of Nazi injustice, not because he wasn't guilty of arson.

SeanT said:

Charles said:

felix said:

Charles said:

JohnO said:

The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.

He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)

Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?

edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/boris-johnson-wont-run-for-prime-minister-after-michael-gove-ent/

Interesting - I give her credit for that.

So do I.

She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.

The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.

Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.

That's how I see it, too. She's put an entire cohort of Tory MPs on the naughty step. As any good schoolmistress should. Those who show proper remorse will be allowed back into class.

When Iain Duncan Smith resigned to join Leave, everyone dismissed his complaints against Osborne as a pretext for his own ambition. In light of Theresa May's actions, perhaps IDS was speaking the truth.

Speedy said:

Good news for those following the 2016 US presidential election, we have a new daily non-yougov tracking poll:

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-lat-tracking-poll-20160705-snap-story.html

Thanks. looks like it pretty 50-50 to me. But I suppose the market will continue to be biased against Trump. Any sane person should hope Clinton wins and bet on Trump.

DecrepitJohnL said:

SeanT said:

Charles said:

felix said:

Charles said:

JohnO said:

The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.

He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)

Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?

edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/boris-johnson-wont-run-for-prime-minister-after-michael-gove-ent/

Interesting - I give her credit for that.

So do I.

She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.

The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.

Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.

That's how I see it, too. She's put an entire cohort of Tory MPs on the naughty step. As any good schoolmistress should. Those who show proper remorse will be allowed back into class.

When Iain Duncan Smith resigned to join Leave, everyone dismissed his complaints against Osborne as a pretext for his own ambition. In light of Theresa May's actions, perhaps IDS was speaking the truth.

IDS is so far unproven as a minister in the prior government. His Grand Plan remains to be implemented acroos the UK.

Based on performance to date: 4 out of 10 at most. He almost makes Corbyn seem a realist..

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit#gid=0

Rod's spreadsheet showing a closing race

"I have nothing to offer but the polls"

John_M said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

From the man who first reported the ex industrial Labour heartlands were swinging heavily for Leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base

He's not wrong.

Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris

He saw it coming years before anyone else.

Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.

Stuffing Stoke Central - a very deprived area - with Tristram Hunt as MP was farcical. The local Party Chairman resigned and stood aginst Hunt - and lost.

After that, I suspect buyers' remorse in spades.

(How can any Labour supporters vote for a Tristram: they are either deluded or mad..

Labour are doing their very best to pee off their tribal loyal supporters..

rottenborough said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

From the man who first reported the ex industrial Labour heartlands were swinging heavily for Leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base

He's not wrong.

Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris

He saw it coming years before anyone else.

Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.

For those who can read, the books of Thomas Frank, largely unknown in UK, about the way the GOP and the right in USA have manipulated the "cultural wars" so that working folk vote against their own economic interests, are increasingly relevant here.

From a review of "What's the matter with America":

"Deny ordinary people the chance to fight wars about resources and they will fight culture wars instead, and when the left fights on its enemy's terrain, the right is laughing all the way to the bank."

Although I entirely agree with this sentiment, unfortunately Democrat (and Labour) politicians have not always proved that they are up to the job of improving the "Life chances" of the poor.

There's a meme that shows that the poorest cities in the US have Democrat mayors, as though those mayors are responsible for the fact that those cities are poor. Of course I can see through the dodgy logic there, but that doesn't mean that I'm convinced that those Democrat mayors are the best thing for those cities.

DecrepitJohnL said:

SeanT said:

Charles said:

felix said:

Charles said:

JohnO said:

The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.

He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)

Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?

edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/boris-johnson-wont-run-for-prime-minister-after-michael-gove-ent/

Interesting - I give her credit for that.

So do I.

She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.

The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.

Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.

That's how I see it, too. She's put an entire cohort of Tory MPs on the naughty step. As any good schoolmistress should. Those who show proper remorse will be allowed back into class.

When Iain Duncan Smith resigned to join Leave, everyone dismissed his complaints against Osborne as a pretext for his own ambition. In light of Theresa May's actions, perhaps IDS was speaking the truth.

Osborne was by any means and by his own targets a failure.
He never hit his economic targets, he messed up 2 budgets and the Brexit budget and became the most unpopular political figure in the country.

One of the 3 reasons Brexit won was Osborne (Cameron and New Labour where the other 2).

There was no way Osborne would have politically survived, even if Remain had won Cameron would have sacrificed him.

Pulpstar said:

The cricket is looking like that rarest of beasts - a genuinely 50-50 match.

Not thinking much if the cricviz model. Has it 56/44 to England which is nonsense when you look at probability of chasing 300 at lords.

Sean_F said:

PClipp said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?

Unlikely.

So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?

Speedy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

SeanT said:

Charles said:

felix said:

Charles said:

JohnO said:

The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.

He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)

Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?

edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/boris-johnson-wont-run-for-prime-minister-after-michael-gove-ent/

Interesting - I give her credit for that.

So do I.

She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.

The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.

Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.

That's how I see it, too. She's put an entire cohort of Tory MPs on the naughty step. As any good schoolmistress should. Those who show proper remorse will be allowed back into class.

When Iain Duncan Smith resigned to join Leave, everyone dismissed his complaints against Osborne as a pretext for his own ambition. In light of Theresa May's actions, perhaps IDS was speaking the truth.

Osborne was by any means and by his own targets a failure.
He never hit his economic targets, he messed up 2 budgets and the Brexit budget and became the most unpopular political figure in the country.

One of the 3 reasons Brexit won was Osborne (Cameron and New Labour where the other 2).

There was no way Osborne would have politically survived, even if Remain had won Cameron would have sacrificed him.

Osborne had to go, not sure I agree with the manner in which he did. Rumors and rumors but by the sounds of it there was a tinge of it being 'personal' and taking great pleasure from it. If it had been me I would have kept it short and sweet and said we are looking to go into a different direction therefore there is no place for you right now, by the sounds of it it wasn't anything like that.

nunu said:

HurstLlama said:

FrankBooth said:

stjohn said:

Margaret Thatcher is reputed to have said, "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself on a bus can count himself a failure."

How about this ? "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself spending hours and days on PB.com can count himself a failure."

Discuss.

What else is there to do when you leave the Young Conservatives?

Become a blood donor?

(readers under the age of about sixty may not get the reference)

ooh do tell.

Are you familiar with the TV/radio phenomenon of Hancock, nunu? Funny, influential, and ultimately tragic.

The immortal line is actually "Something for the benefit of the country as a whole - what should it be, I thought? Become a blood donor, or join the Young Conservatives? But as I'm not looking for a wife, and I can't play table tennis, here I am."

It's more usually heard slightly misquoted as "It was either become a blood donor, or join the Young Conservatives".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzJdS59ZiwA

(His acting wasn't good in that TV episode - he'd had a car accident the week before, and was incapable of learning his lines. So he was reading from a teleprompter. There is an audio recording that was released by Pye - not, as one sometimes seen claimed, a "radio version" of the episode, but produced in the same manner as the radio series. It is rather better acted than the TV episode, arguably.)

Dadge said:

Although I entirely agree with this sentiment, unfortunately Democrat (and Labour) politicians have not always proved that they are up to the job of improving the "Life chances" of the poor.

There's a meme that shows that the poorest cities in the US have Democrat mayors, as though those mayors are responsible for the fact that those cities are poor. Of course I can see through the dodgy logic there, but that doesn't mean that I'm convinced that those Democrat mayors are the best thing for those cities.

I suspect if there was a Conservative Mayor and Council running Newham it would be a lot worse not better.

On the substantive, the poor don't want to be poor - they see what it is to have money, they see what wealth can bring and what they can't have and of course they want it. The illusion of a better life if you have money compels people to work longer hours - without the aspiration, capitalism would have nothing to offer and it would collapse.

Policies to reduce the wealth of the wealthy are therefore surprisingly unpopular with the poor - what's the point of wealth if you don't have it, can't enjoy it or the Government takes it from you ? Measures to alleviate poverty help and are welcome but they don't replace the aspiration and it has been conservatives, rather than socialists, who have come to own that aspiration and champion it. May spoke directly to it on Wednesday and Thursday. That was no coincidence.

Looks like we are into the fear the backlash stage in the media narrative already...it used to take weeks, now it takes days to run through the cycle. SeanT was convinced this attack would have a different reaction, so far it is playing out the same as always, not a real Muslim, now fear the backlash...It is all terribly and sadly predictable.

Attack on Nice brings danger to France closer to home

The next stage in the descent is one that few will talk about - but which is certainly in the minds of both jihadists and government.

This is the moment when the attacks become so outrageous they provoke a backlash. A mosque is burned to the ground. Some white youths go on a rampage through a banlieue (suburb).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36815284

PClipp said:

Sean_F said:

PClipp said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?

Unlikely.

So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?

As she isn't a conservative, it's not obvious why she was ever in the party.

HurstLlama said:

Charles said:

I think you are talking at cross purposes.

I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote

But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).

Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.

The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.

On balance, I think I prefer the suggestion that I got the answer because I am sagacious and erudite rather than because someone told me!

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Theuniondivvie said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

From the man who first reported the ex industrial Labour heartlands were swinging heavily for Leave.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base

He's not wrong.

Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris

He saw it coming years before anyone else.

Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.

Insofar as what happened to SLab was a premonition of what would happen to UKLab, Gerry Hassan was on the case with and even before Harris.

'Strange Death of Labour in Scotland'

http://tinyurl.com/hwnd2yr

Went to a brilliant event in Edinburgh a few years ago with Gerry Hassan and Polly Toynbee. She said 'stop complaining and vote Labour, we need your votes'. She was then bollocked at length by Scottish Labour activists, who had converted to the cause of Indy. She was aghast, as she had no idea what was happening. This was before the 2015 and 2016 gubbings at the ballot box.

Money well spent.

A nice Ceausescu moment.
Though of course I'm not suggesting summary execution for Polly.

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

HurstLlama said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.

Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.

Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.

That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

It depends. The unionists will vote for exit. And do you really see Hoey, Gisela, Mann et al not voting for exit also?

SeanT said:

HurstLlama said:

Charles said:

I think you are talking at cross purposes.

I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote

But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).

Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.

The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.

It's good that TM is quite inscrutable. It means the EU can't second guess her, which gives her negotiating strength. She hasn't been as stupid as David Cameron, announcing he would "never countenance leaving the EU" before beginning a supposed renegotiation of our membership.

Amazingly, he got nothing.

FWIW I reckon May would be quite happy with EEA plus (single market with an emergency brake on migration) and most in the EU would be content to accept, as it harms their own economies the least.

May will then try to mollify deeper concerns over immigration by changes to Benefits etc

I think she's going to hang tough on immigration/free movement.

anotherDave said:

SeanT said:

HurstLlama said:

Charles said:

I think you are talking at cross purposes.

I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote

But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).

Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.

The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.

It's good that TM is quite inscrutable. It means the EU can't second guess her, which gives her negotiating strength. She hasn't been as stupid as David Cameron, announcing he would "never countenance leaving the EU" before beginning a supposed renegotiation of our membership.

Amazingly, he got nothing.

FWIW I reckon May would be quite happy with EEA plus (single market with an emergency brake on migration) and most in the EU would be content to accept, as it harms their own economies the least.

May will then try to mollify deeper concerns over immigration by changes to Benefits etc

I think she's going to hang tough on immigration/free movement.

Repeating myself . I think we have to be prepared to withdraw from the single market. We also have to be prepared for Scottish independence. Not much point in going in to bat if you're not prepared to walk away.

anotherDave said:

I think she's going to hang tough on immigration/free movement.

Indeed and there are an awful lot of different audiences who will be watching the negotiations closely. The remaining EU members have dissident elements who would gladly follow Britain out the door. Whether the agreement obtained by the UK is or becomes a template for other countries is going to be the key outcome.

The atmosphere may well matter more than the content.

John_M said:

Repeating myself . I think we have to be prepared to withdraw from the single market. We also have to be prepared for Scottish independence. Not much point in going in to bat if you're not prepared to walk away.

Absolutely or perhaps the team will go to the wicket with their bats broken by the captain ?

Happened before, apparently.

the golf -

I'm not one to rub it in. It's raining, windy, cold and miserable at Troon, temp in the low 60s (maybe). Where I am it's 95 outside and my den is air conditioned to a comfortable 78. I'm about to go have eggs benedict for brunch.

Ulsterman and former UK Ryder Cup player (now NBC on course commentator) David Feherty is wearing a kilt, and apparently getting compliments on his legs!

What's the German for schadenfreude?

Most on here know that Mickelson and I have a history at golf tournaments so - Go Phil!!!!!

The big yellow scoreboard on 18 is run by pupils and staff from my old school.

Sean_F said:

PClipp said:

Sean_F said:

PClipp said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?

Unlikely.

So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?

I don't know. If the Lib Dems were more numerous, she'd likely switch. Her twitter account suggests someone who is deeply unhappy.

She was a student Tory in the 70s then spent the 80s in the SDP before returning to Conservative around the time of the LibDem merger. So presumably joining the liberals was a step too far. Nevertheless her politics suggests she could well switch.

IanB2 said:

Sean_F said:

PClipp said:

Sean_F said:

PClipp said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?

Unlikely.

So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?

I don't know. If the Lib Dems were more numerous, she'd likely switch. Her twitter account suggests someone who is deeply unhappy.

She was a student Tory in the 70s then spent the 80s in the SDP before returning to Conservative around the time of the LibDem merger. So presumably joining the liberals was a step too far. Nevertheless her politics suggests she could well switch.

She won't be missed

anotherDave said:

I listend to one of Mr Davis' speeches yesterday 'the economic case for brexit'.

http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-mp-delivers-speech-on-the-economic-case-for-brexit/

In that he suggested that the 2017 elections in Germany and France will help the UK, as exports to the UK - the brexit deal - will become an issue in their domestic election.

The votes are significant - it's quite possible new administrations in Paris and Berlin will provide a very different context to the negotiations. I do think a centre-right President in Paris will be a help but unless Merkel is ousted which I don't see as likely at present, Berlin will remain the centre of power for the EU.

BBC appear to be turning a blind eye to lynching of coup troops by mobs.

I wonder if our media will actually report this stuff now? Imagine if this were in Israel or something.
https://twitter.com/TurkeyUntold

SeanT said:

HurstLlama said:

Charles said:

I think you are talking at cross purposes.

I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote

But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).

Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.

The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.

It's good that TM is quite inscrutable. It means the EU can't second guess her, which gives her negotiating strength. She hasn't been as stupid as David Cameron, announcing he would "never countenance leaving the EU" before beginning a supposed renegotiation of our membership.

Amazingly, he got nothing.

FWIW I reckon May would be quite happy with EEA plus (single market with an emergency brake on migration) and most in the EU would be content to accept, as it harms their own economies the least.

May will then try to mollify deeper concerns over immigration by changes to Benefits etc

I agree. I can imagine a Cabinet meeting where it is agreed that protecting the economy comes before immigration control but they also agree not to utter a word about that publicly. The public line will be the David Davis line that immigration control trumps the economy and he'll negotiate on that basis (but ensure on the last long night that the economy comes first).

Sean_F said:

PClipp said:

Sean_F said:

PClipp said:

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:

But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.

I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.

Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?

Unlikely.

So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?

I don't know. If the Lib Dems were more numerous, she'd likely switch. Her twitter account suggests someone who is deeply unhappy.

There must be other pro-EU Tories who are equally unhappy but keep their head down for career reasons?