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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s lucky to have avoided the scrutiny that there’d have been with prolonged membership ballot
The decision of Andrea Leadsom to pull out of the race last Monday is making May’s initial period a whole lot easier. Instead of the 8 weeks long slog of hustings meetings, probing interviews and TV debates the new PM has managed to avoid the searching questions on policy that would have made life considerably harder when entering Number 10.
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3693227/Brother-reveals-violent-drug-crazed-ISIS-soldier-Mohamed-Lahouaiej-Bouhlel-smuggled-84-000-family-Tunisia-DAYS-murdering-84-Nice.html
Where does a petty criminal get 100k euro from?
Personally, I’d liked to have seen the hustings take place, if only to give a more rounded and clearer picture of the present PM. - On saying that, May has been in the public eye for a decade and the Tory membership will already have a fairly clear idea of her in their own minds and if the ballot had taken place between, TM & AL, I have no doubt May would have had a convincing win.
The decision was taken by the body overseeing judges and prosecutors - the meeting was reportedly held to discuss disciplinary measures against those suspected of having links with alleged coup plotter Fetullah Gulen."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-36811357
Wasn't just a small faction of armed forces?
They will be returned forthwith, despite no assurances of what their punishment might be?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-latest-news-istanbul-ankara-erdogan-twitter-beheading-social-media-a7140541.html
The state-within-a-state ("deep state") idea has a long history within Turkey (no wonder given the number of coups they have had), and is either real, non-existent, or vastly exaggerated to be used as a bogeyman by different groups.
An example is the Ergenekon conspiracy, which led to hundreds of people being arrested in 2011. This might have been a join Erdogan - Gulen operation. When they had a falling out a couple of years later and Gulen's people allegedly arrested lots of Erdogan's, suddenly the 2011 plotters were mostly acquitted and the judges who arrested them (and who had just arrested Erdogan's people) were charged!
Turkish politics makes ours look positive uneventful.
My family are safe for the moment. Sadly I can only say for the moment ...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergenekon_(allegation)
Trending on @Twitter in Turkey right now are: "I want the death penalty" (#idamistiyorum) & "Not a coup. Theatre." (#DarbeDegilTiyatro)
Downing St: PM has spoken to Australian opposite number Malcolm Turnbull. Mr Turnbull 'expressed a desire to strike a free trade deal ASAP'
A question for the memoirs is whether Theresa May ever saw herself at the top of the greasy pole -- would she even have stood in two, three or four years' time if David Cameron had been able to keep to his original timetable?
If so, include me out.
CNN reporting "very different vibe" on streets after Nice compared to Paris. Real anger this time, rather than sadness. Significant if true.
That suggests a degree of foresight and planning otherwise wholly absent from any politician over the past six months.
MORE: 11 Supreme Court members arrested along with 4 members of Judges Committee #TurkeyCoup - @agirecudi
MORE: Arrest warrants issued for 140 Constitutional Court members and 48 members of the Council of State #TurkeyCoup - RT
But Kerry added Turkey’s government would have to present evidence of Gulen’s wrongdoing that withstands scrutiny.
How about this ? "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself spending hours and days on PB.com can count himself a failure."
Discuss.
One interesting aside: I might be wrong, but AIUI a clause in the EU agreement with Turkey signed earlier in the year means we can take refugees, but we have to refuse Turks fleeing persecution. This may mean that it is hard for genuine plotters or those caught up in the aftermath to flee to the EU for safety.
Won't go 5 days, may not go 4.
If he had just driven the van, they might have been able to detain him in such a way that he did not die. If they think he's armed to the teeth, they're much more likely to shoot him.
We'll have to wait for official news, but it's odd to say the least.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1971_Turkish_military_memorandum
And later:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Turkish_military_memorandum
I hope the campaign doesn't combine the success of "Stronger In" and the savviness of "Better Together".
The media have been pushing the mental illness / nothing to lose petty criminal who radicalised himself over the past few weeks & acted alone. The 100k euro claim doesn't really fit that narrative.
Mr. Jessop, and yet this 'coup' has been a total failure.
Interesting given that Tim Marshal (formerly foreign affairs editor of Sky News who was on the channel, I think independently, last night) reckoned it was largely done and dusted.
And then Erdogan (by the time I got up) had magically reasserted control, and now half the judiciary's been laid off.
Nothing says democracy like sacking thousands of judges. Except maybe the President's party taking over critical newspapers and television stations.
Than again, I was very ill.
How about:
"A man who, beyond the age of 26, can afford to spend hours and days on PB.com can count himself a success."
Stoned Asians are the new portside drunkard
http://www.libdemvoice.org/the-new-brexit-ministers-negotiating-position-helpfully-set-out-51306.html
It was obvious from the moment Cameron announced his resignation that the final two would be her and Boris. I think Gove thought May would play serious vs shallow on Boris and it would likely work, something she wouldn't be able to do with him as much. I don't think he anticipated it would push Boris out of the race but that it would complicate May's path to the final two. I think he figured Boris was obsessed enough to plough on regardless.
May never looked like she was fighting because she'd prepared and had worked out how to game the election. First get to the final two then fight the election from there. I think she ended up with 50 more votes than she expected in R1 because everyone else were playing catch up and making a horlicks of it. We will have to wait a while for the full inside story of this leadership election but I don't think Theresa May is where she is by mere luck. I think her erstwhile opponents found out rather too late that she is even more formidable than her reputation and plays the game less obviously but more successfully.
Almost 2 hours and only a single Vanilla page on this thread. Is everyone trying to catch up with the rest of their lives after the recent excitements?
"... our mindset should be that of a colonial country preparing for independence: the negotiations are important, but we need not fear them, because the key outcome is not in doubt. We know that, at the end of it all, we shall be free.... "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/deal-or-no-deal-the-government-must-now-start-preparing-for-our/
Shame he is no longer the editor of the Telegraph.
Robert. :-)
As far as Sean T is concerned I think PB is actually the cause of his success. He learnt his craft here. I remember when he first came on here he could hardly spell. Under OGH's patient tutelage he moved from clauses, to sentences, then paragraphs and now whole books. It has been truly wonderful to witness his journey.
I've pointed out in the past that Erdogan had learnt lessons from previous Turkish coups and had put in place mechanisms to prevent them or reduce their effect. This culminated in the 2011 mess.
At this point, I think he's just taking advantage of that mess to consolidate his power and throw out his perceived opponents; e.g. Gulen's supporters. The idea that 3,000-odd judges were in league with the military plotters is ridiculous.
I'm not anticipating much excitement for a while, and it looks like a mini-heatwave on the way. Let's enjoy it!
Good for her. She had a plan, she implemented it. We must all hope it works out for the good of us all.
What I do not believe is that she has come up with this plan by herself. It is too big, too organised, too well thought through to be the work of one person. What I would very much like to know are who are TM's confidants and advisors.
It's rather like the chief of police or army chief in a Middle Eastern country, who remains on good terms with the rival dynasts as they fight each other, before then seizing power and turning on the survivors.
The term Magnificent Bastard sums her up.
(readers under the age of about sixty may not get the reference)
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/mays-man-influence/
Having said that I think Leadsom may well have beaten her because of the other rule (membership only rule) - you have to be a eurosceptic.
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/07/meet-the-new-team-at-number-ten.html
Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?
edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/30/boris-johnson-wont-run-for-prime-minister-after-michael-gove-ent/
If he really wants to come back (which I have my doubts about - if you have been Chancellor in your 40s you could go and do a lot of more interesting things than hang around on the backbenchs for a decade waiting for a chance that might never come) then he would do well to be conspicuously loyal right now
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/15/labour-death-spite-bullying-working-class-base
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.