Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)
Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?
edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.
His articles have much improved over the last two years, getting out of the London lefty bubble has helped. It's funny reading the comments though, they all believe he is wrong and that the working classes are yearning for Corbyn. The problem is the working classes are not the ones joining the party...
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
You are assuming that there has to even be a vote. If there is a vote it will pass even if two dozen Tories oppose it.
"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.
We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
This one will probably be shorter than most...
Not sure about May's Cabinet yet, but her decision to go to Scotland, as essentially her first act as PM, was very well judged.
A lot of voters are worried about the Union (Leavers as well as Remainers). She sensed this, and responded. Moreover, she is tying Scotland into Brexit, by making sure Holyrood will have a say.
So, a pretty good start.
I think she's done OK, but within six months she'll be very unpopular whatever she does, IMO.
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.
We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.
Permission invoke article 50 being voted down would be a huge kerfuffle. So I don't think they'll take the risk. The EU will be happy with a letter from the PM.
"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.
We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.
I think you are talking at cross purposes.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."
"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
This one will probably be shorter than most...
Not sure about May's Cabinet yet, but her decision to go to Scotland, as essentially her first act as PM, was very well judged.
A lot of voters are worried about the Union (Leavers as well as Remainers). She sensed this, and responded. Moreover, she is tying Scotland into Brexit, by making sure Holyrood will have a say.
So, a pretty good start.
I think she's done OK, but within six months she'll be very unpopular whatever she does, IMO.
I'm on a 2016 election at 4/1.
It would be a huge political miscalculation not to go for it straight away IMO.
I suspect she's going to fall into the Brown trap, though.
It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time). The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.
It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.
Mr. Pong, whilst it *may* be an error, the Brown comparison is a shade unfair as May's clearly said throughout she wouldn't go for one, in stark contrast to the Brown approach.
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
This one will probably be shorter than most...
Not sure about May's Cabinet yet, but her decision to go to Scotland, as essentially her first act as PM, was very well judged.
A lot of voters are worried about the Union (Leavers as well as Remainers). She sensed this, and responded. Moreover, she is tying Scotland into Brexit, by making sure Holyrood will have a say.
So, a pretty good start.
I think she's done OK, but within six months she'll be very unpopular whatever she does, IMO.
I'm on a 2016 election at 4/1.
It would be a huge political miscalculation not to go for it straight away IMO.
I suspect she's going to fall into the Brown trap, though.
Browns trap was showing too much ankle. Calling an election now when you've categorically ruled it out would be the reverse trap.
It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time). The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.
It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.
Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.
Would the military coup being a ruse to disguise the real coup be over analysing? It just doesn't smell right.
It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time). The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.
It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.
Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.
Bits of it are stuffed. They are in the position they are, and will go down that route, because it is what the majority of people in Turkey seem to want and approve of.
Mr. Jim, caught a video of Tim Marshall on Sky News saying it was because the chiefs of staff weren't behind it, but a more junior general, so there wasn't the necessary weight behind the attempted putsch.
Got to say it does seem a bit... off to me.
Still, we must be grateful the Reichstag survived the fire.
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.
We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.
I think you are talking at cross purposes.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Timeline can be extended from 2y with mutual consent.
It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time). The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.
It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.
Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.
Would the military coup being a ruse to disguise the real coup be over analysing? It just doesn't smell right.
I suspect that the Reichstag Fire is the right comparison. Van Der Lubbe really did intend to burn it down, but the Nazis discovered this, and used it as an excuse for a crackdown.
Firing/arresting 2,500 judges would have been planned well in advance.
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.
We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.
I think you are talking at cross purposes.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Timeline can be extended from 2y with mutual consent.
Mutual meaning unanimity between the 28 members. It would be unlikely in the circumstances that a deal had been agreed but rejected by the UK parliament.
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."
Essentially that article is suggesting that Hillary will win at a canter basically because Trump's campaign is an omniclustershambles.
It is. He has almost no campaign infrastructure or staff and very limited financial resources.
Hillary has thousands of staffers and volunteers in almost all states and has outspent him by 30-1, yet her numbers are not budging, voters just don't like the dog food she is selling. She is the democratic version of Jeb Bush.
Trump may win by pulling the same trick he did in the primaries, by having the largest share of a fractured field, he got 45%. No one looks like getting 45%+ of the popular vote, given the unpopularity of both major candidates and the publicity for the smaller ones, so the winner will be the one who has the most committed supporters for both the candidate and party.
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.
We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.
I think you are talking at cross purposes.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Timeline can be extended from 2y with mutual consent.
Mutual meaning unanimity between the 28 members. It would be unlikely in the circumstances that a deal had been agreed but rejected by the UK parliament.
It would be likely. For the sake of two months they won't kick the UK out.
"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."
That chimes with the impression given by the Spence VP pick. Not that Spence was first choice for VP, but that he was not quite as bad as Gingrich after any respectable Republican had ruled him or herself out.
It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time). The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.
It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.
Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.
Bits of it are stuffed. They are in the position they are, and will go down that route, because it is what the majority of people in Turkey seem to want and approve of.
I don't think that is what the majority of the people of Turkey want. The last election in Turkey was one of ballot-stuffing, police terror and violent crackdown on the opposition parties and the media in order for Erdogan to regain his majority in parliament.
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
This one will probably be shorter than most...
Not sure about May's Cabinet yet, but her decision to go to Scotland, as essentially her first act as PM, was very well judged.
A lot of voters are worried about the Union (Leavers as well as Remainers). She sensed this, and responded. Moreover, she is tying Scotland into Brexit, by making sure Holyrood will have a say.
So, a pretty good start.
I think she's done OK, but within six months she'll be very unpopular whatever she does, IMO.
I'm on a 2016 election at 4/1.
It would be a huge political miscalculation not to go for it straight away IMO.
I suspect she's going to fall into the Brown trap, though.
How would a 2016 election look to the EU? Or the voters who have just participated in a referendum?
I don't think we'll have an election until we're out of the EU, 2019/2020.
(I put a small bet on 2019 when the Leadsom strategy doc leaked, saying she'd trigger A50 in September, on the assumption that we'd have a GE to coincide with the 2019 EU Parliament election)
It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time). The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.
It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.
Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.
Would the military coup being a ruse to disguise the real coup be over analysing? It just doesn't smell right.
I suspect that the Reichstag Fire is the right comparison. Van Der Lubbe really did intend to burn it down, but the Nazis discovered this, and used it as an excuse for a crackdown.
Firing/arresting 2,500 judges would have been planned well in advance.
I thought it was pretty much a given nowadays that the Nazis masterminded the whole episode. If I'm going to use something as a pretext for a crackdown then I'm going to manufacture my pretext. I'm certainly not going to wait for something to turn up. Everything just seems far too convenient.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.
The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
This one will probably be shorter than most...
Not sure about May's Cabinet yet, but her decision to go to Scotland, as essentially her first act as PM, was very well judged.
A lot of voters are worried about the Union (Leavers as well as Remainers). She sensed this, and responded. Moreover, she is tying Scotland into Brexit, by making sure Holyrood will have a say.
So, a pretty good start.
I think she's done OK, but within six months she'll be very unpopular whatever she does, IMO.
I'm on a 2016 election at 4/1.
It would be a huge political miscalculation not to go for it straight away IMO.
I suspect she's going to fall into the Brown trap, though.
What would Theresa May gain from a 2016 election? She has four years as PM till 2020. If the FPTA is ditched, then we'd probably revert to having elections every four years rather than five, so even after winning this year, she'd still only have four years as PM till the next election.
If Gordon Brown had gone to the country in autumn, 2007, he'd have gained two years and as a bonus, likely ended Cameron's career along with the whole Tory modernisation project. There are no analogous gains for Mrs May as Conservative Prime Minister.
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
Insofar as what happened to SLab was a premonition of what would happen to UKLab, Gerry Hassan was on the case with and even before Harris.
Already quite heartbreaking. Six out of seven members of one family...
Sobering. And of course, it will forever cast a shadow over a French day of celebration, as if the 9/11 planes had struck America on halloween or the fourth of July.
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
For those who can read, the books of Thomas Frank, largely unknown in UK, about the way the GOP and the right in USA have manipulated the "cultural wars" so that working folk vote against their own economic interests, are increasingly relevant here.
From a review of "What's the matter with America":
"Deny ordinary people the chance to fight wars about resources and they will fight culture wars instead, and when the left fights on its enemy's terrain, the right is laughing all the way to the bank."
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.
We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.
I think you are talking at cross purposes.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Timeline can be extended from 2y with mutual consent.
Mutual meaning unanimity between the 28 members. It would be unlikely in the circumstances that a deal had been agreed but rejected by the UK parliament.
Mr. Glenn, we can dance on pinheads for as long as we like but if HMG is not prepared to walk away from the table (and accept WTO rules) then it is begging not negotiating.
It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time). The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.
It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.
Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.
Would the military coup being a ruse to disguise the real coup be over analysing? It just doesn't smell right.
I suspect that the Reichstag Fire is the right comparison. Van Der Lubbe really did intend to burn it down, but the Nazis discovered this, and used it as an excuse for a crackdown.
Firing/arresting 2,500 judges would have been planned well in advance.
I thought it was pretty much a given nowadays that the Nazis masterminded the whole episode. If I'm going to use something as a pretext for a crackdown then I'm going to manufacture my pretext. I'm certainly not going to wait for something to turn up. Everything just seems far too convenient.
West German courts in the end failed to overturn his conviction, he was finally pardoned as a victim of Nazi injustice, not because he wasn't guilty of arson.
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)
Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?
edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.
She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.
The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.
Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.
That's how I see it, too. She's put an entire cohort of Tory MPs on the naughty step. As any good schoolmistress should. Those who show proper remorse will be allowed back into class.
When Iain Duncan Smith resigned to join Leave, everyone dismissed his complaints against Osborne as a pretext for his own ambition. In light of Theresa May's actions, perhaps IDS was speaking the truth.
Thanks. looks like it pretty 50-50 to me. But I suppose the market will continue to be biased against Trump. Any sane person should hope Clinton wins and bet on Trump.
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)
Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?
edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.
She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.
The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.
Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.
That's how I see it, too. She's put an entire cohort of Tory MPs on the naughty step. As any good schoolmistress should. Those who show proper remorse will be allowed back into class.
When Iain Duncan Smith resigned to join Leave, everyone dismissed his complaints against Osborne as a pretext for his own ambition. In light of Theresa May's actions, perhaps IDS was speaking the truth.
IDS is so far unproven as a minister in the prior government. His Grand Plan remains to be implemented acroos the UK.
Based on performance to date: 4 out of 10 at most. He almost makes Corbyn seem a realist..
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
For those who can read, the books of Thomas Frank, largely unknown in UK, about the way the GOP and the right in USA have manipulated the "cultural wars" so that working folk vote against their own economic interests, are increasingly relevant here.
From a review of "What's the matter with America":
"Deny ordinary people the chance to fight wars about resources and they will fight culture wars instead, and when the left fights on its enemy's terrain, the right is laughing all the way to the bank."
I know. When New Labour ditched left wing economics for the Tory ones, the only thing that was left was empty talks about culture, diversity, and lesbians to distinguish them from the Conservatives. Those things were not a priority for the people who voted them to improve their dire economic conditions.
For those voters if you don't talk about money then you are left talking about rubbish.
Immigration is talk about money, because it is easily perceived that immigrants take jobs and lower pay, coupled with racism and xenophobia that is prevalent among the less educated poor, it's an easy way to take their votes.
Labour needs to talk about the money angle to the poor, not the culture one.
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
Stuffing Stoke Central - a very deprived area - with Tristram Hunt as MP was farcical. The local Party Chairman resigned and stood aginst Hunt - and lost.
After that, I suspect buyers' remorse in spades.
(How can any Labour supporters vote for a Tristram: they are either deluded or mad..
Labour are doing their very best to pee off their tribal loyal supporters..
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
For those who can read, the books of Thomas Frank, largely unknown in UK, about the way the GOP and the right in USA have manipulated the "cultural wars" so that working folk vote against their own economic interests, are increasingly relevant here.
From a review of "What's the matter with America":
"Deny ordinary people the chance to fight wars about resources and they will fight culture wars instead, and when the left fights on its enemy's terrain, the right is laughing all the way to the bank."
Although I entirely agree with this sentiment, unfortunately Democrat (and Labour) politicians have not always proved that they are up to the job of improving the "Life chances" of the poor.
There's a meme that shows that the poorest cities in the US have Democrat mayors, as though those mayors are responsible for the fact that those cities are poor. Of course I can see through the dodgy logic there, but that doesn't mean that I'm convinced that those Democrat mayors are the best thing for those cities.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time. That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)
Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?
edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.
She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.
The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.
Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.
That's how I see it, too. She's put an entire cohort of Tory MPs on the naughty step. As any good schoolmistress should. Those who show proper remorse will be allowed back into class.
When Iain Duncan Smith resigned to join Leave, everyone dismissed his complaints against Osborne as a pretext for his own ambition. In light of Theresa May's actions, perhaps IDS was speaking the truth.
Osborne was by any means and by his own targets a failure. He never hit his economic targets, he messed up 2 budgets and the Brexit budget and became the most unpopular political figure in the country.
One of the 3 reasons Brexit won was Osborne (Cameron and New Labour where the other 2).
There was no way Osborne would have politically survived, even if Remain had won Cameron would have sacrificed him.
It won't be long before Erdogan starts executing members of the opposition (although some say that he already has for some time). The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.
It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.
Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.
Would the military coup being a ruse to disguise the real coup be over analysing? It just doesn't smell right.
I suspect that the Reichstag Fire is the right comparison. Van Der Lubbe really did intend to burn it down, but the Nazis discovered this, and used it as an excuse for a crackdown.
Firing/arresting 2,500 judges would have been planned well in advance.
I thought it was pretty much a given nowadays that the Nazis masterminded the whole episode. If I'm going to use something as a pretext for a crackdown then I'm going to manufacture my pretext. I'm certainly not going to wait for something to turn up. Everything just seems far too convenient.
The Nazis found out that he wanted to burn the Reichstag. So, they gave him every assistance, before arresting him.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time. That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time. That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?
Unlikely.
So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
For those who can read, the books of Thomas Frank, largely unknown in UK, about the way the GOP and the right in USA have manipulated the "cultural wars" so that working folk vote against their own economic interests, are increasingly relevant here.
From a review of "What's the matter with America":
"Deny ordinary people the chance to fight wars about resources and they will fight culture wars instead, and when the left fights on its enemy's terrain, the right is laughing all the way to the bank."
Perhaps working folk realise that Labour/Democrats are led by people who care very little for their economic interests, but whose social/cultural values are at odds with their own.
A good example is Piers Wauchope's history of Camden Council, which sounds dry, but is very interesting in showing how, over 20 years, the concerns of Hampstead Labour came to dominate, in place of the concerns of St. Pancreas Labour.
The dismissal of Dominic Raab (my MP) confirms that Mrs May possesses a disagreeable vindictive streak. That won't matter for a while, but the honeymoon never lasts for ever.
He was chief henchman in Gove's betrayal of Johnson, though? (That was the impression I got from the press, at least)
Perhaps she values people who keep their promises?
edit: I believe all four of the people listed here as Gove's "key backers" have been sacked, while those who remained loyal to Johnson have been welcomed.
She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.
The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.
Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.
That's how I see it, too. She's put an entire cohort of Tory MPs on the naughty step. As any good schoolmistress should. Those who show proper remorse will be allowed back into class.
When Iain Duncan Smith resigned to join Leave, everyone dismissed his complaints against Osborne as a pretext for his own ambition. In light of Theresa May's actions, perhaps IDS was speaking the truth.
Osborne was by any means and by his own targets a failure. He never hit his economic targets, he messed up 2 budgets and the Brexit budget and became the most unpopular political figure in the country.
One of the 3 reasons Brexit won was Osborne (Cameron and New Labour where the other 2).
There was no way Osborne would have politically survived, even if Remain had won Cameron would have sacrificed him.
Osborne had to go, not sure I agree with the manner in which he did. Rumors and rumors but by the sounds of it there was a tinge of it being 'personal' and taking great pleasure from it. If it had been me I would have kept it short and sweet and said we are looking to go into a different direction therefore there is no place for you right now, by the sounds of it it wasn't anything like that.
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
Insofar as what happened to SLab was a premonition of what would happen to UKLab, Gerry Hassan was on the case with and even before Harris.
Went to a brilliant event in Edinburgh a few years ago with Gerry Hassan and Polly Toynbee. She said 'stop complaining and vote Labour, we need your votes'. She was then bollocked at length by Scottish Labour activists, who had converted to the cause of Indy. She was aghast, as she had no idea what was happening. This was before the 2015 and 2016 gubbings at the ballot box.
Margaret Thatcher is reputed to have said, "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself on a bus can count himself a failure."
How about this ? "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself spending hours and days on PB.com can count himself a failure."
Discuss.
What else is there to do when you leave the Young Conservatives?
Become a blood donor?
(readers under the age of about sixty may not get the reference)
ooh do tell.
Are you familiar with the TV/radio phenomenon of Hancock, nunu? Funny, influential, and ultimately tragic.
The immortal line is actually "Something for the benefit of the country as a whole - what should it be, I thought? Become a blood donor, or join the Young Conservatives? But as I'm not looking for a wife, and I can't play table tennis, here I am."
It's more usually heard slightly misquoted as "It was either become a blood donor, or join the Young Conservatives".
(His acting wasn't good in that TV episode - he'd had a car accident the week before, and was incapable of learning his lines. So he was reading from a teleprompter. There is an audio recording that was released by Pye - not, as one sometimes seen claimed, a "radio version" of the episode, but produced in the same manner as the radio series. It is rather better acted than the TV episode, arguably.)
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
Stuffing Stoke Central - a very deprived area - with Tristram Hunt as MP was farcical. The local Party Chairman resigned and stood aginst Hunt - and lost.
After that, I suspect buyers' remorse in spades.
(How can any Labour supporters vote for a Tristram: they are either deluded or mad..
Labour are doing their very best to pee off their tribal loyal supporters..
Again, I know.
That is how SLAB collapsed, they stuffed safe seats with people who had no place either in the Labour party or in those constituencies.
People voted for them out of loyalty to the party, but the more they knew them the more they hated them until the hatred for their own MP overcame their loyalty to their party.
SLAB became synonymous for right wing out of touch MP's in safe seats, and they electorally disappeared as suddenly as they parachuted candidates in safe seats.
Although I entirely agree with this sentiment, unfortunately Democrat (and Labour) politicians have not always proved that they are up to the job of improving the "Life chances" of the poor.
There's a meme that shows that the poorest cities in the US have Democrat mayors, as though those mayors are responsible for the fact that those cities are poor. Of course I can see through the dodgy logic there, but that doesn't mean that I'm convinced that those Democrat mayors are the best thing for those cities.
I suspect if there was a Conservative Mayor and Council running Newham it would be a lot worse not better.
On the substantive, the poor don't want to be poor - they see what it is to have money, they see what wealth can bring and what they can't have and of course they want it. The illusion of a better life if you have money compels people to work longer hours - without the aspiration, capitalism would have nothing to offer and it would collapse.
Policies to reduce the wealth of the wealthy are therefore surprisingly unpopular with the poor - what's the point of wealth if you don't have it, can't enjoy it or the Government takes it from you ? Measures to alleviate poverty help and are welcome but they don't replace the aspiration and it has been conservatives, rather than socialists, who have come to own that aspiration and champion it. May spoke directly to it on Wednesday and Thursday. That was no coincidence.
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
Stuffing Stoke Central - a very deprived area - with Tristram Hunt as MP was farcical. The local Party Chairman resigned and stood aginst Hunt - and lost.
After that, I suspect buyers' remorse in spades.
(How can any Labour supporters vote for a Tristram: they are either deluded or mad..
Labour are doing their very best to pee off their tribal loyal supporters..
Again, I know.
That is how SLAB collapsed, they stuffed safe seats with people who had no place either in the Labour party or in those constituencies.
People voted for them out of loyalty to the party, but the more they knew them the more they hated them until the hatred for their own MP overcame their loyalty to their party.
SLAB became synonymous for right wing out of touch MP's in safe seats, and they electorally disappeared as suddenly as they parachuted candidates in safe seats.
Looks like we are into the fear the backlash stage in the media narrative already...it used to take weeks, now it takes days to run through the cycle. SeanT was convinced this attack would have a different reaction, so far it is playing out the same as always, not a real Muslim, now fear the backlash...It is all terribly and sadly predictable.
Attack on Nice brings danger to France closer to home
The next stage in the descent is one that few will talk about - but which is certainly in the minds of both jihadists and government.
This is the moment when the attacks become so outrageous they provoke a backlash. A mosque is burned to the ground. Some white youths go on a rampage through a banlieue (suburb).
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.
We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.
I think you are talking at cross purposes.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Timeline can be extended from 2y with mutual consent.
Yes, it can. But it's in May's interest to present it to Parliament as 'this deal or no deal'
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time. That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?
Unlikely.
So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?
As she isn't a conservative, it's not obvious why she was ever in the party.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time. That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?
Unlikely.
So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?
I don't know. If the Lib Dems were more numerous, she'd likely switch. Her twitter account suggests someone who is deeply unhappy.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.
The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.
On balance, I think I prefer the suggestion that I got the answer because I am sagacious and erudite rather than because someone told me!
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
I don't think article 50 will be put to a vote.
We'll see. I suspect May will feel it needs the full weight of a Commons decision behind the final plan.
I think you are talking at cross purposes.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Timeline can be extended from 2y with mutual consent.
Yes, it can. But it's in May's interest to present it to Parliament as 'this deal or no deal'
Your thoughts Charles on a resultant ‘no deal’ – Does May push forward with her own vision of Brexit, or bin the whole shebang?
Yes. When the Strange Death of the Labour Party is written in the 2020s, there should be an entire chapter about How They Should Have Listened To John Harris
He saw it coming years before anyone else.
Just watching the Stoke videos he published would suffice, for those who sweat over reading comprehension.
Insofar as what happened to SLab was a premonition of what would happen to UKLab, Gerry Hassan was on the case with and even before Harris.
Went to a brilliant event in Edinburgh a few years ago with Gerry Hassan and Polly Toynbee. She said 'stop complaining and vote Labour, we need your votes'. She was then bollocked at length by Scottish Labour activists, who had converted to the cause of Indy. She was aghast, as she had no idea what was happening. This was before the 2015 and 2016 gubbings at the ballot box.
Money well spent.
A nice Ceausescu moment. Though of course I'm not suggesting summary execution for Polly.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Timeline can be extended from 2y with mutual consent.
Yes, it can. But it's in May's interest to present it to Parliament as 'this deal or no deal'
Your thoughts Charles on a resultant ‘no deal’ – Does May push forward with her own vision of Brexit, or bin the whole shebang?
She won't have any choice.
The sequence I'm seeing is that May triggers Article 50 (probably some time in the late autumn) and negotiates the best deal she can. This will probably take us into 2018 (post the French/German elections)
She then puts that deal before Parliament. If they reject it there won't be time to negotiate another deal.
Either the EU countries agree to extend Article 50 to negotiate a new deal (and why would they?) or it's a WTO exit.
Mr. Llama, also worth noting that both Osborne and his followers are united on the backbenches. With a majority of 12 and plenty of scope for mistakes over the EU/Scotland, that could bode ill for May. Osborne's young enough to either do something else or bide his time and await his moment.
Mr. D., Osborne's acolytes will fall away. They were only his while he had the power of patronage. So nothing for TM to worry about there, I think.
Yes and No. A number of Osborne's former acolytes e.g. Greg Clark, Javid, Truss remain in Cabinet, so the extent of the 'purge' can be overstated.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time.
That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
It depends. The unionists will vote for exit. And do you really see Hoey, Gisela, Mann et al not voting for exit also?
Margaret Thatcher is reputed to have said, "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself on a bus can count himself a failure."
How about this ? "A man who, beyond the age of 26, finds himself spending hours and days on PB.com can count himself a failure."
Discuss.
What else is there to do when you leave the Young Conservatives?
Become a blood donor?
(readers under the age of about sixty may not get the reference)
ooh do tell.
Are you familiar with the TV/radio phenomenon of Hancock, nunu? Funny, influential, and ultimately tragic.
The immortal line is actually "Something for the benefit of the country as a whole - what should it be, I thought? Become a blood donor, or join the Young Conservatives? But as I'm not looking for a wife, and I can't play table tennis, here I am."
It's more usually heard slightly misquoted as "It was either become a blood donor, or join the Young Conservatives".
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzJdS59ZiwA
(His acting wasn't good in that TV episode - he'd had a car accident the week before, and was incapable of learning his lines. So he was reading from a teleprompter. There is an audio recording that was released by Pye - not, as one sometimes seen claimed, a "radio version" of the episode, but produced in the same manner as the radio series. It is rather better acted than the TV episode, arguably.)
They really don't make comedy like that any more, do they? Am now going to get distracted watching old videos all evening.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.
The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.
It's good that TM is quite inscrutable. It means the EU can't second guess her, which gives her negotiating strength. She hasn't been as stupid as David Cameron, announcing he would "never countenance leaving the EU" before beginning a supposed renegotiation of our membership.
Amazingly, he got nothing.
FWIW I reckon May would be quite happy with EEA plus (single market with an emergency brake on migration) and most in the EU would be content to accept, as it harms their own economies the least.
May will then try to mollify deeper concerns over immigration by changes to Benefits etc
I think she's going to hang tough on immigration/free movement.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.
The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.
It's good that TM is quite inscrutable. It means the EU can't second guess her, which gives her negotiating strength. She hasn't been as stupid as David Cameron, announcing he would "never countenance leaving the EU" before beginning a supposed renegotiation of our membership.
Amazingly, he got nothing.
FWIW I reckon May would be quite happy with EEA plus (single market with an emergency brake on migration) and most in the EU would be content to accept, as it harms their own economies the least.
May will then try to mollify deeper concerns over immigration by changes to Benefits etc
I think she's going to hang tough on immigration/free movement.
Repeating myself . I think we have to be prepared to withdraw from the single market. We also have to be prepared for Scottish independence. Not much point in going in to bat if you're not prepared to walk away.
Already quite heartbreaking. Six out of seven members of one family...
Not sure if already posted but IS now claiming responsibility for Nice.
I heard on Radio 4 yesterday a commentator saying we just have to learn to live with terrorism. Sorry no we don't. I am fed up with namby bloody pamby way we always seem to deal with this type of incident. I am fed up with world leaders stating we will never give in before disappearing back into their bullet proof limos behind huge security.
After seeing the carnage in Nice and just imagining its was my family lying on the streets I want hell and damnation brought down on the terrorists heads from a huge height....... And I want it to hurt....
I think she's going to hang tough on immigration/free movement.
Indeed and there are an awful lot of different audiences who will be watching the negotiations closely. The remaining EU members have dissident elements who would gladly follow Britain out the door. Whether the agreement obtained by the UK is or becomes a template for other countries is going to be the key outcome.
The atmosphere may well matter more than the content.
Repeating myself . I think we have to be prepared to withdraw from the single market. We also have to be prepared for Scottish independence. Not much point in going in to bat if you're not prepared to walk away.
Absolutely or perhaps the team will go to the wicket with their bats broken by the captain ?
I think she's going to hang tough on immigration/free movement.
Indeed and there are an awful lot of different audiences who will be watching the negotiations closely. The remaining EU members have dissident elements who would gladly follow Britain out the door. Whether the agreement obtained by the UK is or becomes a template for other countries is going to be the key outcome.
The atmosphere may well matter more than the content.
I listend to one of Mr Davis' speeches yesterday 'the economic case for brexit'.
In that he suggested that the 2017 elections in Germany and France will help the UK, as exports to the UK - the brexit deal - will become an issue in their domestic election.
I'm not one to rub it in. It's raining, windy, cold and miserable at Troon, temp in the low 60s (maybe). Where I am it's 95 outside and my den is air conditioned to a comfortable 78. I'm about to go have eggs benedict for brunch.
Ulsterman and former UK Ryder Cup player (now NBC on course commentator) David Feherty is wearing a kilt, and apparently getting compliments on his legs!
What's the German for schadenfreude?
Most on here know that Mickelson and I have a history at golf tournaments so - Go Phil!!!!!
The big yellow scoreboard on 18 is run by pupils and staff from my old school.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time. That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?
Unlikely.
So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?
I don't know. If the Lib Dems were more numerous, she'd likely switch. Her twitter account suggests someone who is deeply unhappy.
She was a student Tory in the 70s then spent the 80s in the SDP before returning to Conservative around the time of the LibDem merger. So presumably joining the liberals was a step too far. Nevertheless her politics suggests she could well switch.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.
The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.
It's good that TM is quite inscrutable. It means the EU can't second guess her, which gives her negotiating strength. She hasn't been as stupid as David Cameron, announcing he would "never countenance leaving the EU" before beginning a supposed renegotiation of our membership.
Amazingly, he got nothing.
FWIW I reckon May would be quite happy with EEA plus (single market with an emergency brake on migration) and most in the EU would be content to accept, as it harms their own economies the least.
May will then try to mollify deeper concerns over immigration by changes to Benefits etc
I think she's going to hang tough on immigration/free movement.
Repeating myself . I think we have to be prepared to withdraw from the single market. We also have to be prepared for Scottish independence. Not much point in going in to bat if you're not prepared to walk away.
Agree with 1, I think 2 is very, very, very unlikely.
EDIT. Someone posted a link to a David Davis Brexit outline from Feb, that you might find of interest if you missed it.
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time. That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?
Unlikely.
So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?
I don't know. If the Lib Dems were more numerous, she'd likely switch. Her twitter account suggests someone who is deeply unhappy.
She was a student Tory in the 70s then spent the 80s in the SDP before returning to Conservative around the time of the LibDem merger. So presumably joining the liberals was a step too far. Nevertheless her politics suggests she could well switch.
In that he suggested that the 2017 elections in Germany and France will help the UK, as exports to the UK - the brexit deal - will become an issue in their domestic election.
The votes are significant - it's quite possible new administrations in Paris and Berlin will provide a very different context to the negotiations. I do think a centre-right President in Paris will be a help but unless Merkel is ousted which I don't see as likely at present, Berlin will remain the centre of power for the EU.
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
Once again I think the sagacious and erudite Mr. Charles has probably got this spot on, and with an intelligence network like his why should he not.
The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.
It's good that TM is quite inscrutable. It means the EU can't second guess her, which gives her negotiating strength. She hasn't been as stupid as David Cameron, announcing he would "never countenance leaving the EU" before beginning a supposed renegotiation of our membership.
Amazingly, he got nothing.
FWIW I reckon May would be quite happy with EEA plus (single market with an emergency brake on migration) and most in the EU would be content to accept, as it harms their own economies the least.
May will then try to mollify deeper concerns over immigration by changes to Benefits etc
I agree. I can imagine a Cabinet meeting where it is agreed that protecting the economy comes before immigration control but they also agree not to utter a word about that publicly. The public line will be the David Davis line that immigration control trumps the economy and he'll negotiate on that basis (but ensure on the last long night that the economy comes first).
But already we have Osborne and Gove (who are close), Perry, Vaizey, Raab, Morgan, Soubry - and we're only about 20% into the reshuffle - disconsolate and fuming on the backbenches, branded as a 'clique' or the Cameroons in exile. I don't expect them immediately to form an akward squad or hold the government to ransom. But they will brood and bide their time. That's perhaps inevitable and is by no means fatal to Mrs M....but I think tactically she could have handled things a little more adroitly.
I can see Sourby voting against the final Brexit plan/A50 bill unless it looks a lot like we have now, along with Ken Clark. Only need a few more and May's in trouble.
Does Soubry have any future in the Conservative Party?
Unlikely.
So what will she do now, Mr Fear? Jump ship, or just wait quietly until she is exterminated?
I don't know. If the Lib Dems were more numerous, she'd likely switch. Her twitter account suggests someone who is deeply unhappy.
There must be other pro-EU Tories who are equally unhappy but keep their head down for career reasons?
What are the half dozen key sanctions and concessions that the UK has at its disposal to get a deal?
Only give them Top Gear episodes with Chris Evans unless they give in. Make them listen to Bay City Rollers music. I'm sure there's more.
BCRs - greatest way of increasing bar takings at a 70s disco.
I admit to knowing who they are - but that's it. Woody!!! Woody!!!
The big things I remember at 70s discos were 1) taking up a collection for the deejay for the cost of 'long haired lover from liverpool' which we then ceremoniously smashed, and 2) which deejay could do the best seamless play of both sides of American Pie.
Comments
Bino – Brexit in name only
She's sending a message that political games are a distraction from the business at hand.
The next step, I suspect, will be to give them 12 months to stew on the backbenches to see how they behave.
Those who plot and scheme remain in the outer darkness. But 1 or 2 will be plucked from obscurity as a reward for good behaviour.
Quick John edit that before JackW sees it.
It's funny reading the comments though, they all believe he is wrong and that the working classes are yearning for Corbyn. The problem is the working classes are not the ones joining the party...
"The lineup for the convention was announced just a few days ago, long after it was promised, and 20 percent of those who will be addressing a national audience are members of the Trump family, including five of his six kids. While the Trumps will be out in full force at the convention, hundreds of Republican legislators are staying away."
https://newrepublic.com/article/135114/ignore-polls-trumps-campaign-hot-mess-thats-matters
I suspect that triggering Article 50 won't be put to a vote
But the final proposed arrangements (whatever they are) for the exit will probably be submitted for approval. (If rejected then the clock would run out on Article 50, resulting in a MFNWTO exit, so I can't see it not being approved. And then everyone has dipped their hands in blood).
It would be a huge political miscalculation not to go for it straight away IMO.
I suspect she's going to fall into the Brown trap, though.
The talks about restoring the death penalty points towards that direction.
It's ironic but highly predictable that most of those who opposed the coup against Erdogan sighting democracy, will now be arrested by Erdogan using the coup as an excuse to abolish democracy.
Turkey is stuffed regardless of the coup outcome.
Got to say it does seem a bit... off to me.
Still, we must be grateful the Reichstag survived the fire.
Firing/arresting 2,500 judges would have been planned well in advance.
He has almost no campaign infrastructure or staff and very limited financial resources.
Hillary has thousands of staffers and volunteers in almost all states and has outspent him by 30-1, yet her numbers are not budging, voters just don't like the dog food she is selling.
She is the democratic version of Jeb Bush.
Trump may win by pulling the same trick he did in the primaries, by having the largest share of a fractured field, he got 45%.
No one looks like getting 45%+ of the popular vote, given the unpopularity of both major candidates and the publicity for the smaller ones, so the winner will be the one who has the most committed supporters for both the candidate and party.
The last election in Turkey was one of ballot-stuffing, police terror and violent crackdown on the opposition parties and the media in order for Erdogan to regain his majority in parliament.
In the last free elections in Turkey, Erdogan's party lost it's majority and fell to 41%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_general_election,_June_2015
I don't think we'll have an election until we're out of the EU, 2019/2020.
(I put a small bet on 2019 when the Leadsom strategy doc leaked, saying she'd trigger A50 in September, on the assumption that we'd have a GE to coincide with the 2019 EU Parliament election)
The only question mark I have is what is TM's desired outcome? I have a sneaking suspicion that she really wants out and the EU will have the same status, initially, as the rest of the world. Something I could live with but no doubt it would bring on an attack of the vapours for many on here.
If Gordon Brown had gone to the country in autumn, 2007, he'd have gained two years and as a bonus, likely ended Cameron's career along with the whole Tory modernisation project. There are no analogous gains for Mrs May as Conservative Prime Minister.
http://www.dw.com/en/brexit-strategist-daniel-hannan-five-years-from-now-britain-will-be-flourishing/a-19398488
'Strange Death of Labour in Scotland'
http://tinyurl.com/hwnd2yr
From a review of "What's the matter with America":
"Deny ordinary people the chance to fight wars about resources and they will fight culture wars instead, and when the left fights on its enemy's terrain, the right is laughing all the way to the bank."
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-lat-tracking-poll-20160705-snap-story.html
It's from the same team that made the 2012 RAND tracking poll.
http://reaction.life/shameful-treatment-george-osborne-heralded-troubling-reshuffle/
Based on performance to date: 4 out of 10 at most. He almost makes Corbyn seem a realist..
And now dinner. Huzzah! I am seriously hungry, and I saw some New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc cooling in the beer fridge earlier.
You all play nicely.
Rod's spreadsheet showing a closing race
"I have nothing to offer but the polls"
When New Labour ditched left wing economics for the Tory ones, the only thing that was left was empty talks about culture, diversity, and lesbians to distinguish them from the Conservatives.
Those things were not a priority for the people who voted them to improve their dire economic conditions.
For those voters if you don't talk about money then you are left talking about rubbish.
Immigration is talk about money, because it is easily perceived that immigrants take jobs and lower pay, coupled with racism and xenophobia that is prevalent among the less educated poor, it's an easy way to take their votes.
Labour needs to talk about the money angle to the poor, not the culture one.
After that, I suspect buyers' remorse in spades.
(How can any Labour supporters vote for a Tristram: they are either deluded or mad..
Labour are doing their very best to pee off their tribal loyal supporters..
There's a meme that shows that the poorest cities in the US have Democrat mayors, as though those mayors are responsible for the fact that those cities are poor. Of course I can see through the dodgy logic there, but that doesn't mean that I'm convinced that those Democrat mayors are the best thing for those cities.
He never hit his economic targets, he messed up 2 budgets and the Brexit budget and became the most unpopular political figure in the country.
One of the 3 reasons Brexit won was Osborne (Cameron and New Labour where the other 2).
There was no way Osborne would have politically survived, even if Remain had won Cameron would have sacrificed him.
A good example is Piers Wauchope's history of Camden Council, which sounds dry, but is very interesting in showing how, over 20 years, the concerns of Hampstead Labour came to dominate, in place of the concerns of St. Pancreas Labour.
Money well spent.
The immortal line is actually "Something for the benefit of the country as a whole - what should it be, I thought? Become a blood donor, or join the Young Conservatives? But as I'm not looking for a wife, and I can't play table tennis, here I am."
It's more usually heard slightly misquoted as "It was either become a blood donor, or join the Young Conservatives".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzJdS59ZiwA
(His acting wasn't good in that TV episode - he'd had a car accident the week before, and was incapable of learning his lines. So he was reading from a teleprompter. There is an audio recording that was released by Pye - not, as one sometimes seen claimed, a "radio version" of the episode, but produced in the same manner as the radio series. It is rather better acted than the TV episode, arguably.)
That is how SLAB collapsed, they stuffed safe seats with people who had no place either in the Labour party or in those constituencies.
People voted for them out of loyalty to the party, but the more they knew them the more they hated them until the hatred for their own MP overcame their loyalty to their party.
SLAB became synonymous for right wing out of touch MP's in safe seats, and they electorally disappeared as suddenly as they parachuted candidates in safe seats.
On the substantive, the poor don't want to be poor - they see what it is to have money, they see what wealth can bring and what they can't have and of course they want it. The illusion of a better life if you have money compels people to work longer hours - without the aspiration, capitalism would have nothing to offer and it would collapse.
Policies to reduce the wealth of the wealthy are therefore surprisingly unpopular with the poor - what's the point of wealth if you don't have it, can't enjoy it or the Government takes it from you ? Measures to alleviate poverty help and are welcome but they don't replace the aspiration and it has been conservatives, rather than socialists, who have come to own that aspiration and champion it. May spoke directly to it on Wednesday and Thursday. That was no coincidence.
Attack on Nice brings danger to France closer to home
The next stage in the descent is one that few will talk about - but which is certainly in the minds of both jihadists and government.
This is the moment when the attacks become so outrageous they provoke a backlash. A mosque is burned to the ground. Some white youths go on a rampage through a banlieue (suburb).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36815284
Though of course I'm not suggesting summary execution for Polly.
The sequence I'm seeing is that May triggers Article 50 (probably some time in the late autumn) and negotiates the best deal she can. This will probably take us into 2018 (post the French/German elections)
She then puts that deal before Parliament. If they reject it there won't be time to negotiate another deal.
Either the EU countries agree to extend Article 50 to negotiate a new deal (and why would they?) or it's a WTO exit.
1. One of the 3 EU presidents has published a strong worded statement on Twitter about Erdogan's crackdown, glad we left the useless EU:
https://twitter.com/EP_President/status/754366739752841216
2. Erdogan is demanding that the USA hand over Gulen or else.
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754368360092172288
3. Turkish government announces the USA was behind the attempted coup.
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754367879357820929
I heard on Radio 4 yesterday a commentator saying we just have to learn to live with terrorism. Sorry no we don't. I am fed up with namby bloody pamby way we always seem to deal with this type of incident. I am fed up with world leaders stating we will never give in before disappearing back into their bullet proof limos behind huge security.
After seeing the carnage in Nice and just imagining its was my family lying on the streets I want hell and damnation brought down on the terrorists heads from a huge height....... And I want it to hurt....
A lot.
The atmosphere may well matter more than the content.
Happened before, apparently.
http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-mp-delivers-speech-on-the-economic-case-for-brexit/
In that he suggested that the 2017 elections in Germany and France will help the UK, as exports to the UK - the brexit deal - will become an issue in their domestic election.
I'm not one to rub it in. It's raining, windy, cold and miserable at Troon, temp in the low 60s (maybe). Where I am it's 95 outside and my den is air conditioned to a comfortable 78. I'm about to go have eggs benedict for brunch.
Ulsterman and former UK Ryder Cup player (now NBC on course commentator) David Feherty is wearing a kilt, and apparently getting compliments on his legs!
What's the German for schadenfreude?
Most on here know that Mickelson and I have a history at golf tournaments so - Go Phil!!!!!
The big yellow scoreboard on 18 is run by pupils and staff from my old school.
EDIT.
Someone posted a link to a David Davis Brexit outline from Feb, that you might find of interest if you missed it.
http://www.daviddavismp.com/david-davis-speech-on-brexit-at-the-institute-of-chartered-engineers/
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754377141916200960
The kurdish party had supported Erdogan against the coup just last night, oh the irony.
https://twitter.com/TurkeyUntold
The big things I remember at 70s discos were 1) taking up a collection for the deejay for the cost of 'long haired lover from liverpool' which we then ceremoniously smashed, and 2) which deejay could do the best seamless play of both sides of American Pie.