politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to take the idea of President Trump seriously

Second like Hillary :P

RobD said:

First

your on the west coast, no fair!

Remember the long summer of 1988. Dukakis was in the lead for ages. He was the future once!

RobD said:

nunu said:

RobD said:

First

your on the west coast, no fair!

Means I miss all the fun in the UK. I woke up a week ago to May being crowned!

But you can enjoy the reformed Governor Moonbeam

"Close to being back in the race" is the right assessment, but if you're merely *close* to being back in the race then you're not value at 12/5.

The West keeps losing.

JohnLoony said:

upculture .

Please god can we never ever ever see that word repeated on pb

Regardless of what happens next in Turkey this is a lesson in not to run a coup. Five mins on Google tells me there are 4 fibre optic cables connecting Turkey to the rest of the world and two 4G networks. The army should have seized and shut these down in first 20 minutes instead of pissing about with jet flybys. Same with Air Traffic Control. Clearly too many aging baby boomers running this plot, should have got some millennials in on it.

rkrkrk said:

Any Trump supporters on PB?

Is ambivalence permitted? I do think some of what he says is right. Or, rather, he has a point about some things. I'd be tempted to vote for him whilst telling pollsters I'd vote for Hillary.

Which reminds me. Someone I respect told me they were sure they would vote Remain and told everyone that she's a Remainer. She says she went into the ballot box and voted Leave. She still doesn't know what happened!

The other thing that's significant is the MASSIVE 'country taking wrong track' scores. Up to +60 at the moment. That's astonishing. Absolutely astonishing. Throw in +74 Congressional disapproval (Hillary is utter establishment) and Obama now sliding back into negative approval rating and this is serious.

The moment Trump taps that wrong track anti-establishment meme and it's all over.

The last YouGov was July 6th. The latest polls, as David Herdson correctly wrote, are very good for Trump. I posted the three latest national polls below and you can see all the updates here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I suspect Kevin that you are from the US? You seem rather biased against Pence. It could be a shrewd move by Trump. As the New York Times notes:

'In Mr. Pence, the presumptive Republican nominee has found a running mate with unimpeachable conservative credentials, warm relationships in Washington and a vast reservoir of good will with the Christian right.'

Trump has none of those things. At all. Trump is charismatic, Pence is a civil unblemished vanilla politician. So this is called smart politics.

Again, the NYT:
'Mr. Pence is viewed as a sturdy and dependable politician by Republicans in Indiana and Washington, and chided Mr. Trump for his proposal to bar Muslims from entering the United States, calling it “offensive and unconstitutional” in a Twitter post in December.'

p.s. and it's hyperbole to say Pence is hated. His approval ratings are higher than both Trump and Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/07/14/us/politics/mike-pence-approval-rating-governors.html

Lowlander, I don't know. I think the 'something's wrong' meme is bloody powerful in politics. There's nothing remotely nuanced about it. I'm sure it was one of the underlying drivers behind the Vote Leave. In a way what you call xenophobia (somewhat pejorative analysis if I may say) is a symptom of that 'something's wrong' meme.

Tell people things are wrong and that you're gonna fix it. Simples. And he hardly needs to tell them: they're answering 80 to 20 that something's wrong. Incredible.

As an aside, Hillary's 'I'm with Her' turned around by Trump into 'I'm with You' hit the whole thing on the head.

I think Hillary's in big trouble.

Kevin_McCandless said:

In a solidly Republican state, Pence leads his Democrat foe by four points. And I know the GOP. He is far from being loved. Choosing him wasn't a shrewd move by Trump. There was simply nobody credible in Ohio or Florida or any real swing state who'd run with him. In any case, a couple of moderately not great days in July aren't going to lose it for Clinton.

It's as I thought: you have a bit of an agenda here.

Most US commentators don't agree with you. The art of a VP is to have someone that's not alike but who compliments the POTUS candidate. In lots of ways Pence is everything Trump isn't and he will appeal to an important kind of Republican voter that Trump might yet alienate: the conservative Christian right. He'll also shore up the mid-west where, if you recall, Ted Cruz was so strong.

I don't think Trump needs to worry about attracting the middle ground: he has the proven ability to reach parts other GOP members could only dream of.

It's clear Pence isn't Trump's buddy but that's not the point. It's good politicking.

I maintain that Hillary is in real trouble. If she's only evens going into the conventions she's going to have a very stormy ride through the Fall. She's vulnerable to attack and attack there will be.

JohnLoony said:

JennyFreeman said:

JohnLoony said:

upculture .

Please god can we never ever ever see that word repeated on pb

Why not? I invented it for the purpose of putting it in that sentence. I found it useful. I can invent words if I want to. If you disagree, you are a booliak, and you should be groaked until you confess.

I'm all for inventing words. 'Upculture' is gobsmackingly hideous. It's the worst example of computer-speak.

Eh. My conservative credentials are pretty secure. And I'm no fan of Clinton. But to base the results of an election five months from now on a few statistical wobbles really isn't solid. I'm sure Pence will firm up the Midwest about as well as Ryan did for Romney.

Casino_Royale said:

Just got back from a lovely, relaxing fortnight in Thailand.

Did I miss anything?

Welcome back, hope you enjoyed yourself.

Nothing's happened. Politics has been its usual, quiet self.

I've mentioned Gulen on here many times in the past. It looks as though Erdogan is looking to blame the King over the water for the coup.

At least 60 dead in Turkey.

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just got back from a lovely, relaxing fortnight in Thailand.

Did I miss anything?

Welcome back, hope you enjoyed yourself.

Nothing's happened. Politics has been its usual, quiet self.

Yup. Fantastic time cheers. Largely a "digital free" break, i.e. no smartphones, which was just the mental break I needed too.

If the coup has been lost, what does this mean for Turkey? Well, Erdogan wants more power - he's president in a system where the PM should wield more power. His PM resigned in May and was replaced with one of Erdogan's old friends. It is believed Erdogan wants to move to more of a presidential system: i.e. with more powers going to himself.

It is likely that he will now find reasons for this to happen.

His apparent attempt to blame it on Gulen supporters will also weaken that faction's power.

It is yet more chaos in a country that needs stability at this time.

On other notes: I need to be very careful what I say. Some of my family are not liked by the Erdogan regime. They won't be directly involved with this, but if he uses it as an excuse to round up dissenters ...

Worrying times.

JosiasJessop said:

asjohnstone said:

Regardless of what happens next in Turkey this is a lesson in not to run a coup. Five mins on Google tells me there are 4 fibre optic cables connecting Turkey to the rest of the world and two 4G networks. The army should have seized and shut these down in first 20 minutes instead of pissing about with jet flybys. Same with Air Traffic Control. Clearly too many aging baby boomers running this plot, should have got some millennials in on it.

Odd, as their military have a long and illustrious track record of running coups.

I have a very concerned wife atm. Plenty of friends and family living near potential targets ...

Get them out of there, Erdogan will arrest them using the coup as an excuse.
It's plainly obvious.

Speedy said:

JosiasJessop said:

If the coup has been lost, what does this mean for Turkey? Well, Erdogan wants more power - he's president in a system where the PM should wield more power. His PM resigned in May and was replaced with one of Erdogan's old friends. It is believed Erdogan wants to move to more of a presidential system: i.e. with more powers going to himself.

It is likely that he will now find reasons for this to happen.

His apparent attempt to blame it on Gulen supporters will also weaken that faction's power.

It is yet more chaos in a country that needs stability at this time.

On other notes: I need to be very careful what I say. Some of my family are not liked by the Erdogan regime. They won't be directly involved with this, but if he uses it as an excuse to round up dissenters ...

Worrying times.

Erdogan is already Dictator for life of Turkey.
He will simply used it to round up whatever resistance among civilians and the military to his rule that still exists.

It's on the foreign field that Erdogan will gain most, since now the west will be forced to commit to him anyhing he likes.

He's not there yet - although he may use this to move a step nearer it.

Turkey's got massive problems internally atm - amongst which are the millions of refugees they've coped with for several years now, the war waging on its southern border, differing governmental factions, and internal terrorism (left-wing, ISIS, and Kurdish).

Casino_Royale said:

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

At least 60 dead in Turkey.

It looks like Operation Valkyrie has failed.

Well Erdogan has gotten control of his Istanbul stronghold.
The coup still has forces in the east of Turkey.

The coup failed to do 3 very important things:

1. Control the mobile phone networks.
2. Control the private TV stations.
3. Arrest the civilian party leaders.

The Egyptian military managed to do all of the above and Al-Sisi will remain for many years in power.

More importantly, if the reports are to be believed, it seems the forces undertaking the coup are only a faction of the armed forces.

First rule of a military coup: control the military.

I *think* the 1960 coup was also a small faction, but the rest of the military chose to go along.

Many of the figures at the top of the military and judiciary were replaced a decade or so after a series of scandals - some of which might have been invented - and replaced with people Erdogan could trust. This was with Gulen's help, before the two of them fell out.

It looks like that move might have helped Erdogan now.

Casino_Royale said:

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

At least 60 dead in Turkey.

It looks like Operation Valkyrie has failed.

Well Erdogan has gotten control of his Istanbul stronghold.
The coup still has forces in the east of Turkey.

The coup failed to do 3 very important things:

1. Control the mobile phone networks.
2. Control the private TV stations.
3. Arrest the civilian party leaders.

The Egyptian military managed to do all of the above and Al-Sisi will remain for many years in power.

More importantly, if the reports are to be believed, it seems the forces undertaking the coup are only a faction of the armed forces.

First rule of a military coup: control the military.

Erdogan has been in power for 14 years, he has placed his people in all important positions in the media, the judiciary, the military, the police, the secret services ect.

If you want to get rid of Erdogan you have to find people from his side that have been passed over or are dissafected with him, but crucially you have to get rid of the man himself so that he will be unable to give orders to his stooges.

It very much looks like the failed coup against Noriega in 1989, it took a US invasion to get rid off him, which is not an option with Turkey.
If the coup fails then Erdogan will stay President of Turkey for as long as he lives, which also gives an answer of how to get rid of him.

In African countries the Presidents or Dictators might die from convenient plane or helicopter crashes, it happend in China once too.
It only takes one fighter jet or a SAM to shoot down Erdogan's plane, which will probably be on the menu in any future attempts against him if the current one fails.

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just got back from a lovely, relaxing fortnight in Thailand.

Did I miss anything?

Welcome back, hope you enjoyed yourself.

Nothing's happened. Politics has been its usual, quiet self.

Yup. Fantastic time cheers. Largely a "digital free" break, i.e. no smartphones, which was just the mental break I needed too.

Whereabouts did you go in the land of smiles, Casino Royale?

Charles: haha, agreed

JennyFreeman said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just got back from a lovely, relaxing fortnight in Thailand.

Did I miss anything?

Welcome back, hope you enjoyed yourself.

Nothing's happened. Politics has been its usual, quiet self.

Yup. Fantastic time cheers. Largely a "digital free" break, i.e. no smartphones, which was just the mental break I needed too.

Whereabouts did you go in the land of smiles, Casino Royale?

Charles: haha, agreed

Phuket. You might be relieved to know I was with my wife and did not do a Sean Thomas.

I must say, that's more than just a tourism strapline: the Thais really are friendly, welcoming and good fun. Makes a real difference when you want a relaxed break.

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

At least 60 dead in Turkey.

It looks like Operation Valkyrie has failed.

Well Erdogan has gotten control of his Istanbul stronghold.
The coup still has forces in the east of Turkey.

The coup failed to do 3 very important things:

1. Control the mobile phone networks.
2. Control the private TV stations.
3. Arrest the civilian party leaders.

The Egyptian military managed to do all of the above and Al-Sisi will remain for many years in power.

More importantly, if the reports are to be believed, it seems the forces undertaking the coup are only a faction of the armed forces.

First rule of a military coup: control the military.

The other worry about that is that if, as seems likely, the coup was led by career military officers, their purging will weaken the army further as they are replaced by ineffectual officers who are politically sound. Good news for Erdogan and Daesh, bad news for the Middle East.

That's called doing a Stalin.

Looks like Boris was right to call him what he did in his limerick. I might have used stronger words.

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

At least 60 dead in Turkey.

It looks like Operation Valkyrie has failed.

Well Erdogan has gotten control of his Istanbul stronghold.
The coup still has forces in the east of Turkey.

The coup failed to do 3 very important things:

1. Control the mobile phone networks.
2. Control the private TV stations.
3. Arrest the civilian party leaders.

The Egyptian military managed to do all of the above and Al-Sisi will remain for many years in power.

More importantly, if the reports are to be believed, it seems the forces undertaking the coup are only a faction of the armed forces.

First rule of a military coup: control the military.

The other worry about that is that if, as seems likely, the coup was led by career military officers, their purging will weaken the army further as they are replaced by ineffectual officers who are politically sound. Good news for Erdogan and Daesh, bad news for the Middle East.

That's called doing a Stalin.

Looks like Boris was right to call him what he did in his limerick. I might have used stronger words.

Dear old Stalin.

Removed and/or shot 61 of his 67 most senior generals and told his soldiers to obey orders that only came directly from him.

And was then surprised to find that because he had issued no orders and his generals were incompetent, the Germans had faced no resistance (and I mean no resistance) for 72 hours after invading, by which time they had killed, captured or neutralised half the entire Soviet army.

Could Erdogan really be so silly as to do that?

JennyFreeman said:

Casino_Royale said:

JennyFreeman said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just got back from a lovely, relaxing fortnight in Thailand.

Did I miss anything?

Welcome back, hope you enjoyed yourself.

Nothing's happened. Politics has been its usual, quiet self.

Yup. Fantastic time cheers. Largely a "digital free" break, i.e. no smartphones, which was just the mental break I needed too.

Whereabouts did you go in the land of smiles, Casino Royale?

Charles: haha, agreed

Phuket. You might be relieved to know I was with my wife and did not do a Sean Thomas.

I must say, that's more than just a tourism strapline: the Thais really are friendly, welcoming and good fun. Makes a real difference when you want a relaxed break.

Agreed. I think if you stay polite with Thais they are incredibly warm. Ferang tend to get into trouble when they get arsey either with Thais or with each other.

Can I be nosey and ask whereabouts on Phuket? I love the island for all sorts of reasons, including the fact they have restricted building in the interior so there are still tree-clad hills everywhere. The beaches are fab and most of the Thais are there to serve tourism so they know they need to be on the ball. There's almost no other industry on the island. Yes the roads are busy and it's slightly more pricey than some other parts, but once you're on location it's pretty unbeatable in my view.

Karon beach.

The guidebooks were very clear that raising voices or getting angry with Thais is entirely counterproductive. Not that that should ever be considered anyway.

Food was terrific, weather nice and warm every day (although it was rainy season) and some of the islands offshore are sublime. Phuket is still very popular with Russians, Aussies and a surprising number of Chinese. Brits were fairly few, actually. And virtually no backpackers - I was surprised at that too; I wonder if Phuket becoming so much more developed and expensive over the last 15 years has had an impact?

My only real criticism would be civic maintenance, in terms of uncontrolled building works and development, and littering.

There was a real litter problem on the beach where we were.

anotherDave said:

JennyFreeman said:

rkrkrk said:

Any Trump supporters on PB?

Which reminds me. Someone I respect told me they were sure they would vote Remain and told everyone that she's a Remainer. She says she went into the ballot box and voted Leave. She still doesn't know what happened!

Good angel on her shoulder?

So far I'm liking the May government a lot more than I thought I would.

My first comment about the May government (there is a first time for everything).

It's a Tory unity government, all major factions are in, liberals, weather vanes, conservatines.
Unlike Cameron who was a very factional leader that destabilized the Tory party to the point UKIP became a major force.

I think the Tories will be much more united and stable until at least the Brexit negotiations are concluded, but as the band Asia once said "Only time will tell":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfX1D__ZCyM

JennyFreeman said:

rkrkrk said:

Any Trump supporters on PB?

Is ambivalence permitted? I do think some of what he says is right. Or, rather, he has a point about some things. I'd be tempted to vote for him whilst telling pollsters I'd vote for Hillary.

Which reminds me. Someone I respect told me they were sure they would vote Remain and told everyone that she's a Remainer. She says she went into the ballot box and voted Leave. She still doesn't know what happened!

We need a phrase for the reverse of bottling it.

C.R. interesting what you say about backpackers. I've noticed the same. They tend to flock to Ko Phi Phi, I think, which sounds like the sort of place Sean T would adore then: hordes of teenagers wandering around day in night in thongs.

You're so right about the civil building. It's everywhere in Thailand with the possible exception of Koh Chang on the east coast. I suppose it's a sign of a thriving economy.

It's sad about the litter. They're pretty meticulous about cleaning parties on Patong beach I know: when I ran there every morning you would see the dawn litter patrols out.

I love the food on Phuket too. There's a fantastic restaurant cafe at one of the viewpoints which had sensational Thai curry dishes and pineapple fried rice: some of the best I've eaten in the country. I also found one very upmarket place in Patong where the food was exceptional and not outrageous £££ (The 9th Floor, if anyone is going there).

Sorry everyone about this holiday guide diversion. Thailand's still a fabulous destination imho.

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

At least 60 dead in Turkey.

It looks like Operation Valkyrie has failed.

The Egyptian military managed to do all of the above and Al-Sisi will remain for many years in power.

More importantly, if the reports are to be believed, it seems the forces undertaking the coup are only a faction of the armed forces.

First rule of a military coup: control the military.

The other worry about that is that if, as seems likely, the coup was led by career military officers, their purging will weaken the army further as they are replaced by ineffectual officers who are politically sound. Good news for Erdogan and Daesh, bad news for the Middle East.

That's called doing a Stalin.

Looks like Boris was right to call him what he did in his limerick. I might have used stronger words.

Dear old Stalin.

Removed and/or shot 61 of his 67 most senior generals and told his soldiers to obey orders that only came directly from him.

And was then surprised to find that because he had issued no orders and his generals were incompetent, the Germans had faced no resistance (and I mean no resistance) for 72 hours after invading, by which time they had killed, captured or neutralised half the entire Soviet army.

Could Erdogan really be so silly as to do that?

Obviously, he's not going to shoot them.

But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.

It already has fallen out of the orbit of the west since 2002.

The diffence is that Turkey is growing stronger and more hostile to the west as it's strength grows.
How can you solve the problem of a great power that is in NATO but at the same time an enemy of NATO ?

But every cloud has a silver lining, if the Americans are looking for a credible enemy to maintain their defence budget, Turkey is very much at the top of the list.

It's powerfull enough to be a very credible boogeyman but not powerfull enough to be a direct threat to america, it's already hostile to american interests, Turkey has no reliable allies, and can scare europe into line much easier than Russia with whom there are too large commercial interests to maintain hostility for long.

And most important, Turkey has no oil, so Turkey being officially declared an enemy of the west won't rattle energy markets.

Scott_P said:

Speedy said:

It's a Tory unity government, all major factions are in, liberals, weather vanes, conservatines.

Apart from the Cameroons who have been culled, and now all sit together on the back benches.

Maybe smart. Looks spiteful right now. Time will tell.

How long will Tory Brexiteers give it until they start to get fidgety about the glacial pace of negotiations? Based on what Hammond - a very good appointment IMO - has said over recent months there seems to me to be the potential for big clashes between him and Davis/Fox over the terms of a Brexit deal. May will not be able to sit on the fence should that happen.

JennyFreeman said:

Casino_Royale said:

JennyFreeman said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

Just got back from a lovely, relaxing fortnight in Thailand.

Did I miss anything?

Welcome back, hope you enjoyed yourself.

Nothing's happened. Politics has been its usual, quiet self.

Yup. Fantastic time cheers. Largely a "digital free" break, i.e. no smartphones, which was just the mental break I needed too.

Whereabouts did you go in the land of smiles, Casino Royale?

Charles: haha, agreed

Phuket. You might be relieved to know I was with my wife and did not do a Sean Thomas.

I must say, that's more than just a tourism strapline: the Thais really are friendly, welcoming and good fun. Makes a real difference when you want a relaxed break.

Agreed. I think if you stay polite with Thais they are incredibly warm. Ferang tend to get into trouble when they get arsey either with Thais or with each other.

Can I be nosey and ask whereabouts on Phuket? I love the island for all sorts of reasons, including the fact they have restricted building in the interior so there are still tree-clad hills everywhere. The beaches are fab and most of the Thais are there to serve tourism so they know they need to be on the ball. There's almost no other industry on the island. Yes the roads are busy and it's slightly more pricey than some other parts, but once you're on location it's pretty unbeatable in my view.

Taxis are expensive on Phuket, in my experience. Otherwise, yes, go there. And yes, Thais are nice people.

SouthamObserver said:

How long will Tory Brexiteers give it until they start to get fidgety about the glacial pace of negotiations?

I am surprised they have kept quiet this long...

Redwood has already been out and about with his repeal shtick. We'll see if he shuts up now.

MikeK said:

anotherDave said:

JennyFreeman said:

rkrkrk said:

Any Trump supporters on PB?

Which reminds me. Someone I respect told me they were sure they would vote Remain and told everyone that she's a Remainer. She says she went into the ballot box and voted Leave. She still doesn't know what happened!

Good angel on her shoulder?

So far I'm liking the May government a lot more than I thought I would.

That's strange #anotherDave because it hasn't done anything yet.

Well, you can read too much into small signs, but what I like so far:

1. Putting Leave MPs in positions of power re: UK-EU negotiations. Davis, Johnson, Fox.

I was a little worried that Ms May would not follow thru with Leave. I thought the Remain MPs were looking for a candidate to keep us in the EU, and Ms May was that candidate. Now I think she's going to do it. I also think the UK-EU deal is going to be more imaginative than copying Norway.

2. Energy. She mentioned pursuing a cheap energy policy in her first speech. Then merging the Dept of Energy with Dept of Business reinforced that point. I think expensive Green energy is one of the most destructive policies being pursed by HMG. A change here is a huge win.

3. Clearing out the Cameroons. Rightly or wrongly I really dislike them. My impression was that they were tailoring policies to appeal to rich Londoners and the BBC, rather than the long term national interest.

I'm also hopeful for change on: triple-lock pensions, genuine attempt at reducing immigration numbers, serious effort to cut gov't spending (austerity under the cameroons has been more about tax rises than spending cuts)
---

One of her aides, Nick Timothy, has written a regular column on ConHome. I've been reading those over the last few days. I think I'm going to like a government where he feels comfortable.

http://www.conservativehome.com/author/nick-timothy

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/07/meet-the-new-team-at-number-ten.html

Scott_P said:

Jonathan said:

With a majority of 12 of course it's smart.

Punishment beating for a bloc of more than 12 MPs is "smart" with a majority of 12?

Really?

I meant them sitting together as a menacing force on the back benches.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/754202774024364032

@SouthamObserver


'How long will Tory Brexiteers give it until they start to get fidgety about the glacial pace of negotiations?' Based on what Hammond - a very good appointment IMO - has said over recent months there seems to me to be the potential for big clashes between him and Davis/Fox over the terms of a Brexit deal.'


As long as it takes,Remain lost get over it.

JennyFreeman said:

C.R. interesting what you say about backpackers. I've noticed the same. They tend to flock to Ko Phi Phi, I think, which sounds like the sort of place Sean T would adore then: hordes of teenagers wandering around day in night in thongs.

You're so right about the civil building. It's everywhere in Thailand with the possible exception of Koh Chang on the east coast. I suppose it's a sign of a thriving economy.

It's sad about the litter. They're pretty meticulous about cleaning parties on Patong beach I know: when I ran there every morning you would see the dawn litter patrols out.

I love the food on Phuket too. There's a fantastic restaurant cafe at one of the viewpoints which had sensational Thai curry dishes and pineapple fried rice: some of the best I've eaten in the country. I also found one very upmarket place in Patong where the food was exceptional and not outrageous £££ (The 9th Floor, if anyone is going there).

Sorry everyone about this holiday guide diversion. Thailand's still a fabulous destination imho.

Agree. We had a delicious fresh lobster in Patong too at a seafood restaurant recommended to us.

Best one we'd ever had.

john_zims said:

@SouthamObserver


'How long will Tory Brexiteers give it until they start to get fidgety about the glacial pace of negotiations?' Based on what Hammond - a very good appointment IMO - has said over recent months there seems to me to be the potential for big clashes between him and Davis/Fox over the terms of a Brexit deal.'


As long as it takes,Remain lost get over it.

What a silly little post.

Speedy said:

It already has fallen out of the orbit of the west since 2002.

The diffence is that Turkey is growing stronger and more hostile to the west as it's strength grows.
How can you solve the problem of a great power that is in NATO but at the same time an enemy of NATO ?

But every cloud has a silver lining, if the Americans are looking for a credible enemy to maintain their defence budget, Turkey is very much at the top of the list.

It's powerfull enough to be a very credible boogeyman but not powerfull enough to be a direct threat to america, it's already hostile to american interests, Turkey has no reliable allies, and can scare europe into line much easier than Russia with whom there are too large commercial interests to maintain hostility for long.

And most important, Turkey has no oil, so Turkey being officially declared an enemy of the west won't rattle energy markets.

Surely the oilfields currently controlled by ISIS/Kurds are a likely target for Turkey?

I think the US voters are probably sick of military adventures in the middle-east. I doubt a new enemy there would be a political asset.

The tragedy of the failed Turkish coup could well be that those who went out onto the street to defend democracy will end up suffering as a result of the crackdown that will now happen:
https://twitter.com/ysfsymn/status/754194833674240000

Casino_Royale said:

Just got back from a lovely, relaxing fortnight in Thailand.

Did I miss anything?

The Lib Dems made a modest recovery in the local elections on Thursday. Otherwise, it's been dragsville, baby.

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

Speedy said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

At least 60 dead in Turkey.

It looks like Operation Valkyrie has failed.

The Egyptian military managed to do all of the above and Al-Sisi will remain for many years in power.

More importantly, if the reports are to be believed, it seems the forces undertaking the coup are only a faction of the armed forces.

First rule of a military coup: control the military.

The other worry about that is that if, as seems likely, the coup was led by career military officers, their purging will weaken the army further as they are replaced by ineffectual officers who are politically sound. Good news for Erdogan and Daesh, bad news for the Middle East.

That's called doing a Stalin.

Looks like Boris was right to call him what he did in his limerick. I might have used stronger words.

Obviously, he's not going to shoot them.

But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.

It already has fallen out of the orbit of the west since 2002.

The diffence is that Turkey is growing stronger and more hostile to the west as it's strength grows.
How can you solve the problem of a great power that is in NATO but at the same time an enemy of NATO ?

But every cloud has a silver lining, if the Americans are looking for a credible enemy to maintain their defence budget, Turkey is very much at the top of the list.

It's powerfull enough to be a very credible boogeyman but not powerfull enough to be a direct threat to america, it's already hostile to american interests, Turkey has no reliable allies, and can scare europe into line much easier than Russia with whom there are too large commercial interests to maintain hostility for long.

And most important, Turkey has no oil, so Turkey being officially declared an enemy of the west won't rattle energy markets.

I don't think it's that clear cut. But I agree Turkey's journey to an authoritarian islamist regime, rather than continue down to the road to becoming a secular liberal democracy, is a process.

Casino_Royale said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/754202774024364032

Erdogan = Corbyn

So far.

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Scott_P said:

Jonathan said:

With a majority of 12 of course it's smart.

Punishment beating for a bloc of more than 12 MPs is "smart" with a majority of 12?

Really?

I meant them sitting together as a menacing force on the back benches.

Maybe Theresa thinks that they're all mouth and no trousers.

As far as I can tell she's removing those who have either unimpressed her over the years, or were vassals of George Osborne.

That won't be unpopular on the backbenches.

And the most state school educated cabinet since Clem Attlee's 1945 Gov't marks a massive change and sends the strongest signal: do well and you can get to the top table. Meritocracy will be a huge pull for the majority of backbenchers. It does remind me of early Maggie Thatcher: a new broom cleaning out the old guard but not out of spite at all: out of regard for rewarding the best people no matter their background.