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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to take the idea of President Trump seriously
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time to take the idea of President Trump seriously
What a busy three weeks it’s been. You could almost have forgotten that there was an election on in the most powerful country in the world. However, there is and the Republican Party convention begins on Monday.
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Secondlike the coup plotters!I take it Jezza is safe after tonight's events
Some incredible things going on in the world. Quick succinct thoughts:
1. Yes Donald could well win. Hillary is going to be very very vulnerable to attack and when the dogs are set loose she could be in big trouble. Trump holds the cards.
2. Theresa May is one smart cookie. Jeez. Going to Scotland on day 1. Wow. Parking her tanks on Labour's compost heap (there's no lawn left). Wow. Having most state school educated ministers since Attlee's 1945 Gov't. Wow. Putting Brexiteers in charge of Brexit. Wow. Firing all of Cameron's backroom boys. Wow. She is formidable.
3. Labour are very close to destroyed. I don't think they will be but they're teetering right on the edge of the precipice.
4. The EU is marching closer to its end. With Turkey's coup d'etat, and yet another terrorist atrocity, the days of supra-national naivety have gone. It's over. Borders will come back.
5. If, and it's a big if but I wouldn't put anything past her right now, May can steer the UK successfully through the Brexit and maintain economic growth then the Conservatives will win a landslide at the next election.
Which reminds me. Someone I respect told me they were sure they would vote Remain and told everyone that she's a Remainer. She says she went into the ballot box and voted Leave. She still doesn't know what happened!
There were no national polls y'day and I take state polls with caution. The most recent national polls came out on Thursday and were pretty darned good for Trump
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton CBS News/NY Times Clinton 40, Trump 40 Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Rasmussen Reports Clinton 37, Trump 44 Trump +7
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Economist/YouGov Clinton 45, Trump 43 Clinton +2
p.s. not sure you're right about Pence either. He could shore-up the mid-west.
The moment Trump taps that wrong track anti-establishment meme and it's all over.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
I suspect Kevin that you are from the US? You seem rather biased against Pence. It could be a shrewd move by Trump. As the New York Times notes:
'In Mr. Pence, the presumptive Republican nominee has found a running mate with unimpeachable conservative credentials, warm relationships in Washington and a vast reservoir of good will with the Christian right.'
Trump has none of those things. At all. Trump is charismatic, Pence is a civil unblemished vanilla politician. So this is called smart politics.
Again, the NYT:
'Mr. Pence is viewed as a sturdy and dependable politician by Republicans in Indiana and Washington, and chided Mr. Trump for his proposal to bar Muslims from entering the United States, calling it “offensive and unconstitutional” in a Twitter post in December.'
Trump may well win, but it will be based on his presentation of xenophobia and racism. That is powerful if done right. And so far, he is doing it right.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/07/14/us/politics/mike-pence-approval-rating-governors.html
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/147395227526/cop-killers-versus-racists
Tell people things are wrong and that you're gonna fix it. Simples. And he hardly needs to tell them: they're answering 80 to 20 that something's wrong. Incredible.
As an aside, Hillary's 'I'm with Her' turned around by Trump into 'I'm with You' hit the whole thing on the head.
I think Hillary's in big trouble.
Most US commentators don't agree with you. The art of a VP is to have someone that's not alike but who compliments the POTUS candidate. In lots of ways Pence is everything Trump isn't and he will appeal to an important kind of Republican voter that Trump might yet alienate: the conservative Christian right. He'll also shore up the mid-west where, if you recall, Ted Cruz was so strong.
I don't think Trump needs to worry about attracting the middle ground: he has the proven ability to reach parts other GOP members could only dream of.
It's clear Pence isn't Trump's buddy but that's not the point. It's good politicking.
I maintain that Hillary is in real trouble. If she's only evens going into the conventions she's going to have a very stormy ride through the Fall. She's vulnerable to attack and attack there will be.
Did I miss anything?
I have a very concerned wife atm. Plenty of friends and family living near potential targets ...
Nothing's happened. Politics has been its usual, quiet self.
Cubans might help flip FL for Trump but South American Latinos are going to help Hillary in the west and possibly flip AZ, it's certainly gonna make it easier to keep NM, NV and CO.
Can't see much of the map changing from last time, which would leave Clinton well north of the 270 she needs.
It is likely that he will now find reasons for this to happen.
His apparent attempt to blame it on Gulen supporters will also weaken that faction's power.
It is yet more chaos in a country that needs stability at this time.
On other notes: I need to be very careful what I say. Some of my family are not liked by the Erdogan regime. They won't be directly involved with this, but if he uses it as an excuse to round up dissenters ...
Worrying times.
He will simply used it to round up whatever resistance among civilians and the military to his rule that still exists.
It's on the foreign field that Erdogan will gain most, since now the west will be forced to commit to him anyhing he likes.
It's plainly obvious.
The coup still has forces in the east of Turkey.
The coup failed to do 3 very important things:
1. Control the mobile phone networks.
2. Control the private TV stations.
3. Arrest the civilian party leaders.
The Egyptian military managed to do all of the above and Al-Sisi will remain for many years in power.
Turkey's got massive problems internally atm - amongst which are the millions of refugees they've coped with for several years now, the war waging on its southern border, differing governmental factions, and internal terrorism (left-wing, ISIS, and Kurdish).
First rule of a military coup: control the military.
Many of the figures at the top of the military and judiciary were replaced a decade or so after a series of scandals - some of which might have been invented - and replaced with people Erdogan could trust. This was with Gulen's help, before the two of them fell out.
It looks like that move might have helped Erdogan now.
If you want to get rid of Erdogan you have to find people from his side that have been passed over or are dissafected with him, but crucially you have to get rid of the man himself so that he will be unable to give orders to his stooges.
It very much looks like the failed coup against Noriega in 1989, it took a US invasion to get rid off him, which is not an option with Turkey.
If the coup fails then Erdogan will stay President of Turkey for as long as he lives, which also gives an answer of how to get rid of him.
In African countries the Presidents or Dictators might die from convenient plane or helicopter crashes, it happend in China once too.
It only takes one fighter jet or a SAM to shoot down Erdogan's plane, which will probably be on the menu in any future attempts against him if the current one fails.
So far I'm liking the May government a lot more than I thought I would.
Charles: haha, agreed
Me too re. TM. Bloody smart politician.
She still can't explain what happened in the polling booth and I can't get any sense out of her about it. Quite scary really. She does think it's funny though.
I must say, that's more than just a tourism strapline: the Thais really are friendly, welcoming and good fun. Makes a real difference when you want a relaxed break.
As I feared last night, Erdogan now has the green light to go full gangbusters on a de facto dictatorship.
That Boris will be an inconsequential ornament in the Foreign Office theory looks very weak today.
Looks like Boris was right to call him what he did in his limerick. I might have used stronger words.
Can I be nosey and ask whereabouts on Phuket? I love the island for all sorts of reasons, including the fact they have restricted building in the interior so there are still tree-clad hills everywhere. The beaches are fab and most of the Thais are there to serve tourism so they know they need to be on the ball. There's almost no other industry on the island. Yes the roads are busy and it's slightly more pricey than some other parts, but once you're on location it's pretty unbeatable in my view.
Removed and/or shot 61 of his 67 most senior generals and told his soldiers to obey orders that only came directly from him.
And was then surprised to find that because he had issued no orders and his generals were incompetent, the Germans had faced no resistance (and I mean no resistance) for 72 hours after invading, by which time they had killed, captured or neutralised half the entire Soviet army.
Could Erdogan really be so silly as to do that?
The guidebooks were very clear that raising voices or getting angry with Thais is entirely counterproductive. Not that that should ever be considered anyway.
Food was terrific, weather nice and warm every day (although it was rainy season) and some of the islands offshore are sublime. Phuket is still very popular with Russians, Aussies and a surprising number of Chinese. Brits were fairly few, actually. And virtually no backpackers - I was surprised at that too; I wonder if Phuket becoming so much more developed and expensive over the last 15 years has had an impact?
My only real criticism would be civic maintenance, in terms of uncontrolled building works and development, and littering.
There was a real litter problem on the beach where we were.
It's a Tory unity government, all major factions are in, liberals, weather vanes, conservatines.
Unlike Cameron who was a very factional leader that destabilized the Tory party to the point UKIP became a major force.
I think the Tories will be much more united and stable until at least the Brexit negotiations are concluded, but as the band Asia once said "Only time will tell":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfX1D__ZCyM
But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.
Looks like Erdogan has succeeded in crushing the coup, which seems to have been badly organised in the first place.
First rule of a good coup: kill or render the head of the fish harmless.
Maybe smart. Looks spiteful right now. Time will tell.
You're so right about the civil building. It's everywhere in Thailand with the possible exception of Koh Chang on the east coast. I suppose it's a sign of a thriving economy.
It's sad about the litter. They're pretty meticulous about cleaning parties on Patong beach I know: when I ran there every morning you would see the dawn litter patrols out.
I love the food on Phuket too. There's a fantastic restaurant cafe at one of the viewpoints which had sensational Thai curry dishes and pineapple fried rice: some of the best I've eaten in the country. I also found one very upmarket place in Patong where the food was exceptional and not outrageous £££ (The 9th Floor, if anyone is going there).
Sorry everyone about this holiday guide diversion. Thailand's still a fabulous destination imho.
The diffence is that Turkey is growing stronger and more hostile to the west as it's strength grows.
How can you solve the problem of a great power that is in NATO but at the same time an enemy of NATO ?
But every cloud has a silver lining, if the Americans are looking for a credible enemy to maintain their defence budget, Turkey is very much at the top of the list.
It's powerfull enough to be a very credible boogeyman but not powerfull enough to be a direct threat to america, it's already hostile to american interests, Turkey has no reliable allies, and can scare europe into line much easier than Russia with whom there are too large commercial interests to maintain hostility for long.
And most important, Turkey has no oil, so Turkey being officially declared an enemy of the west won't rattle energy markets.
Redwood has already been out and about with his repeal shtick. We'll see if he shuts up now.
Really?
1. Putting Leave MPs in positions of power re: UK-EU negotiations. Davis, Johnson, Fox.
I was a little worried that Ms May would not follow thru with Leave. I thought the Remain MPs were looking for a candidate to keep us in the EU, and Ms May was that candidate. Now I think she's going to do it. I also think the UK-EU deal is going to be more imaginative than copying Norway.
2. Energy. She mentioned pursuing a cheap energy policy in her first speech. Then merging the Dept of Energy with Dept of Business reinforced that point. I think expensive Green energy is one of the most destructive policies being pursed by HMG. A change here is a huge win.
3. Clearing out the Cameroons. Rightly or wrongly I really dislike them. My impression was that they were tailoring policies to appeal to rich Londoners and the BBC, rather than the long term national interest.
I'm also hopeful for change on: triple-lock pensions, genuine attempt at reducing immigration numbers, serious effort to cut gov't spending (austerity under the cameroons has been more about tax rises than spending cuts)
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One of her aides, Nick Timothy, has written a regular column on ConHome. I've been reading those over the last few days. I think I'm going to like a government where he feels comfortable.
http://www.conservativehome.com/author/nick-timothy
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/07/meet-the-new-team-at-number-ten.html
1. RCP is a GOP driven site and as in 08 and 12 are selective about polls they include early doors. However their record on election day on share of the national vote is good.
2. Nate Silver rates pollsters and weights for accuracy. 538 remains the best resource .... apart from ARSE4US ..
3. Demographics are vital in most swings states. If a pollster screws up the AA, hispanic, gender balance or party id, as many did in past elections then the poll is worthless. So dig down into the crosstabs. Some of the recent Florida polls favouring Trump have been laughable.
4. Don't be automatically put off by who sponsors the poll. Quality matters not who pays.
5. Size matters .. Many polls have sub 500 samples so MoE far higher.
No difference this time.
But seriously you couldn't expect that May would keep Osborne in the new government, not with his poll numbers and bad record in No.11.
'How long will Tory Brexiteers give it until they start to get fidgety about the glacial pace of negotiations?' Based on what Hammond - a very good appointment IMO - has said over recent months there seems to me to be the potential for big clashes between him and Davis/Fox over the terms of a Brexit deal.'
As long as it takes,Remain lost get over it.
Best one we'd ever had.
Whichever one it is, the Ultras are going to be upset
As far as I can tell she's removing those who have either unimpressed her over the years, or were vassals of George Osborne.
That won't be unpopular on the backbenches.
I think the US voters are probably sick of military adventures in the middle-east. I doubt a new enemy there would be a political asset.
https://twitter.com/ysfsymn/status/754194833674240000
2. Nate Silver have been overated, the primaries showed that his forecasts are biased by his personal opinions like any pundit, but even his nowcast model gives Trump a 45% chance.
3. Agree there, but too many Florida polls have given Trump large leads there recently.
4. I refuse to include Rasmussen and Fox News polls whatever you say, and Marist is ruined since they changed their methodology in February (having Ted Cruz leading the GOP race strikes them out).
5. Agree, the only polls with less than 500 that could be credible would be those from very small states, like Delaware or Rhode Island.
If we don't, Hannan's faction will be distraught.
That circle can never be squared, however long it takes
So far.