Incidentally, last comment then I must go: I will concede only one possible moment of 'spite' and that's about Michael Gove and Nicky Morgan who backed him.
Last week Team Gove apparently contacted May's team to do a deal. They replied, 'we don't need a cuckoo in the nest.'
It has been said of Theresa May that she is fiercely loyal. She will reward loyalty and, conversely, punish those who aren't.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
She certainly believed in Brexit. Quite some politician to hold her nose and pretend to support Remain out of loyalty. The proof of her brilliance? Well ... just look now.
If she supported leave privately then her actions since the win which show she has no wish to be a continuity Cameroon, woukd prove she did not go remain out of loyalty but ambition, that she calculated she could be top of the pile. And she was certainly right and the best of the options.
Yet Cameron clearly thought she was *one of his*. He was very pleased that she was victorious - and given the upset amongst culled Cameroons, they weren't expecting to be dumped either.
She's promoted a bunch of people from her own old team/friends instead. I'm reserving judgement on her for at least three months.
But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.
I think that's absolutely right. I wouldn't be at all surprised if turkey left NATO in the next five years.
Erdogan won't leave NATO. If he leaves NATO it will automatically solve the problem of how to deal with a NATO member that is an emeny of NATO at the same time.
That will be contrary to his interest in confusing western policy reaction to him, since he is presently clearly an enemy of the west but also an ally on paper, thus confusing western foreign policy.
Lordy. How much do you actually know about Turkey?
I've been a very keen studier of his long term foreign policy advisor Davutoglou.
When it comes to that corner of europe and asia, I'm well informed. Don't forget that I said early last year that Tsipras will never allow Greece to leave the eurozone and that Varoufakis was a complete idiot, I was right.
Well Erdogan has gotten control of his Istanbul stronghold. The coup still has forces in the east of Turkey.
The coup failed to do 3 very important things:
1. Control the mobile phone networks. 2. Control the private TV stations. 3. Arrest the civilian party leaders.
The Egyptian military managed to do all of the above and Al-Sisi will remain for many years in power.
More importantly, if the reports are to be believed, it seems the forces undertaking the coup are only a faction of the armed forces.
First rule of a military coup: control the military.
The other worry about that is that if, as seems likely, the coup was led by career military officers, their purging will weaken the army further as they are replaced by ineffectual officers who are politically sound. Good news for Erdogan and Daesh, bad news for the Middle East.
Sky reporting that 1563 military personnel have been arrested so far.
I'm surprised they're surrendering at all. They must surely be expecting execution.
Most of them won't be part of the coup, just on a list of some kind. Anyone who has uttered a word against Erdogan.
If you're right, that includes someone rather close to me ...
Oh indeed. Treason is treason. All the more reason for them to plot it properly beforehand. Idiots.
It's a disaster for Europe though. The army will be purged, Erdogan strengthened and Turkey will turn further from secularism; and the people who came out to support him will find the rights stripped further.
It's a disaster for the people of Turkey, most of all.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.
I think that's absolutely right. I wouldn't be at all surprised if turkey left NATO in the next five years.
Erdogan won't leave NATO. If he leaves NATO it will automatically solve the problem of how to deal with a NATO member that is an emeny of NATO at the same time.
That will be contrary to his interest in confusing western policy reaction to him, since he is presently clearly an enemy of the west but also an ally on paper, thus confusing western foreign policy.
Lordy. How much do you actually know about Turkey?
I've been a very keen studier of his long term foreign policy advisor Davutoglou.
When it comes to that corner of europe and asia, I'm well informed. Don't forget that I said early last year that Tsipras will never allow Greece to leave the eurozone and that Varoufakis was a complete idiot, I was right.
You don't sound very well informed given your comments on this thread.
As ever when looking at a country, and especially it's foreign policy, look at it's internal situation.
Oh indeed. Treason is treason. All the more reason for them to plot it properly beforehand. Idiots.
It's a disaster for Europe though. The army will be purged, Erdogan strengthened and Turkey will turn further from secularism; and the people who came out to support him will find the rights stripped further.
It's a disaster for the people of Turkey, most of all.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
My son was off to book a cheap Turkish beach holiday with his mates today. They're going to Spain now.
By the way, did anyone catch Lynne Featherstone's praise of Theresa May over the same sex marriage bill? I think it surprised a number of us to discover the bill may have fallen had TM not backed it to the hilt against massive opposition in the Home Office.
I have spoken to Lynne about this personally. Despite their huge political differences Featherstone readily acknowledges the backing she got from May that was critical to getting a potentially sceptical Tory party on side.
Kle4 I agree except that she couldn't have known Leave would win. I think she thought Remain would win and she should be loyal to Cameron as she has been all down the years.
I repeat, she's formidable. She might have all the attributes of Thatcher without the shortcomings.
Impossible to say ahead of time, particularly as bad habits have a way of growing over time. But we can hope you're right.
No she didn't know leave would win, it was a gamble. Boris was for leave for one. And she definitely was understated in support for remain. She had options whoever won.
But the fact of her loyalty while Cameron was in power was not the point. You purported she held her nose and went against her own leave inclination out of loyalty, and that seems unlikely to me. Tactics woukd seem a more realistic reason, particilaly given how well she played the aftermath.
Either she was genuinely for remain, despite being understated about it, and is now being professional and will go for as good a Brexit deal as possible. Or she was a liar and actually supported leave and pretended otherwise despite it being a free vote which cabinet members were able to vote their conscience.
Personally I'd prefer the former as it speaks well of her. The latter would make it just about her own advancement.
But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.
I think that's absolutely right. I wouldn't be at all surprised if turkey left NATO in the next five years.
Erdogan won't leave NATO. If he leaves NATO it will automatically solve the problem of how to deal with a NATO member that is an emeny of NATO at the same time.
That will be contrary to his interest in confusing western policy reaction to him, since he is presently clearly an enemy of the west but also an ally on paper, thus confusing western foreign policy.
How important is NATO membership to Turkey? Do we have any leverage?
My own conclusion is that we just have to diversify our energy sources and keep the price of oil at reasonable levels. Saudi is going to be in big trouble if the oil price doesn't recover.
I also had a check of the fertility rates in Egypt, Turkey and Iran - which if oil doesn't recover are the 3 states that really matter. In Egypt it is 2.6, Turkey 2 and Iran 1.8. It could easily fall a lot lower. Seems as if women are no longer prepared to be baby-making machines. Have their minds been poisoned by the west?
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
It was and still is american policy to stuff the EU with as many members as possible in order that no single country will have control over it. But Germany took control anyway.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
She certainly believed in Brexit. Quite some politician to hold her nose and pretend to support Remain out of loyalty. The proof of her brilliance? Well ... just look now.
I argued during the campaign that May was going to vote Leave and Boris was going to vote Remain. I would love to know what May really thought when she saw Boris jump ship and go to head up the Leave Campaign?
At the time this followed a period of some weeks where commentators were suggesting this might be what May was thinking of doing. Instead, by some combination of accident and design (and if it was all design isn't that almost scary?) she watched Boris go for it, crash and burn. In a parallel universe somewhere Boris didn't fall out with Gove and is now our PM and Gove our Chancellor.
By the way, did anyone catch Lynne Featherstone's praise of Theresa May over the same sex marriage bill? I think it surprised a number of us to discover the bill may have fallen had TM not backed it to the hilt against massive opposition in the Home Office.
I have spoken to Lynne about this personally. Despite their huge political differences Featherstone readily acknowledges the backing she got from May that was critical to getting a potentially sceptical Tory party on side.
Thank you for this Ian.
And now she has appointed Justine to Ed Sec. Good days to be LGBT. At least in Britain.
But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.
I think that's absolutely right. I wouldn't be at all surprised if turkey left NATO in the next five years.
Erdogan won't leave NATO. If he leaves NATO it will automatically solve the problem of how to deal with a NATO member that is an emeny of NATO at the same time.
That will be contrary to his interest in confusing western policy reaction to him, since he is presently clearly an enemy of the west but also an ally on paper, thus confusing western foreign policy.
How important is NATO membership to Turkey? Do we have any leverage?
My own conclusion is that we just have to diversify our energy sources and keep the price of oil at reasonable levels. Saudi is going to be in big trouble if the oil price doesn't recover.
I also had a check of the fertility rates in Egypt, Turkey and Iran - which if oil doesn't recover are the 3 states that really matter. In Egypt it is 2.6, Turkey 2 and Iran 1.8. It could easily fall a lot lower. Seems as if women are no longer prepared to be baby-making machines. Have their minds been poisoned by the west?
On energy, the world is a lot safer (as in, less dependent on the Middle East) than it was five years ago. There have been massive, almost unbelievable, gas discoveries to add to the very large amount of shale gas that's commercially recoverable in the US and Canada. (This matters more than you think, because gas can be converted to oil, and because the transportation network is moving towards electric.)
Tight oil in the US is going to keep on rocking for a long time. (And Canada is getting in on the act too. Russia, Australia and other places will also start producing tight oil in time.) Plus, there's a potentially massive new petroleum basin opening up off-shore Guyana and Surinam.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Oh indeed. Treason is treason. All the more reason for them to plot it properly beforehand. Idiots.
It's a disaster for Europe though. The army will be purged, Erdogan strengthened and Turkey will turn further from secularism; and the people who came out to support him will find the rights stripped further.
It's a disaster for the people of Turkey, most of all.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
My son was off to book a cheap Turkish beach holiday with his mates today. They're going to Spain now.
Good call. There's so many places I'd like to go that I'm far too scared to try. I guess I'll stick to Bognor Regis.
Well they've got three years to organise because they will never get this chance again. They must unite the anti-Erdogan factions before the election and put forward a credible alternative.
'How long will Tory Brexiteers give it until they start to get fidgety about the glacial pace of negotiations?' Based on what Hammond - a very good appointment IMO - has said over recent months there seems to me to be the potential for big clashes between him and Davis/Fox over the terms of a Brexit deal.'
As long as it takes,Remain lost get over it.
What a silly little post.'
You just can't get over the fact 'Remain' & the so called experts lost, and so try to dream up every conceivable reason for it to be blocked or changed,we are leaving to EU,get over it. It's not that complicated.
Whether it takes two or three years we are OUT.
I am sorry you are not bright enough to understand my posts. But that is your problem, not mine.'
I am sorry you are not bright enough to understand that we have a new government that have said Brexit means Brexit, and nobody cares how slow it may or may not take or what arguments there may or may not be on our way out.
You obviously missed that the EU TTIP agreement is now being scrapped (not worth it without the UK apparently) and now the UK is at the front of the queue for a free trade deal with the US.
So lots of deals to be done which most sensible people will understand takes time.
It's bizarre that you seem determined to miss SO's point. Maybe the clue lies in your sentence above when you refer to 'sensible people' and then think Baker/Baron/Redwood/Cash......
Oh indeed. Treason is treason. All the more reason for them to plot it properly beforehand. Idiots.
It's a disaster for Europe though. The army will be purged, Erdogan strengthened and Turkey will turn further from secularism; and the people who came out to support him will find the rights stripped further.
It's a disaster for the people of Turkey, most of all.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
My son was off to book a cheap Turkish beach holiday with his mates today. They're going to Spain now.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
It's Fox I worry about. Last time around he combined incompetence with... errr... poor judgement. I hope he does better this time.
Blaming "fewer bookings ahead the Referendum". Hmmm.... Funny how other travel firms managed to survive this remarkable phenomenon.
Nothing to do with a crap business model and poor management then?
Yep, if you operate a business model based solely on squeezing very tight margins and high volume deal flow you are going to come unstuck at some stage. If it hadn't have been Brexit it would have been something else.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
That seems a sensible view. Personally i prefer a Brexit lite deal, and Mays actions indicate to me she despised being in the Cameroon government and as part of changes will by necessity or desire go for hard Brexit, but for now she seems the best option as a PM we have.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Fox and Davis are huge gambles. It's not as if they are dealmaking titans with extraordinary pedigrees of success. They're in there on the tent pissing theory alone.
Well they've got three years to organise because they will never get this chance again. They must unite the anti-Erdogan factions before the election and put forward a credible alternative.
Indeed.
While many opposed the coup on principle despite being erdogan opponents, my cynicism wonders how many might not have publicly opposed the coup if it had looked like it might be able to beat erdogan. But regardless it's not easy to condemn those who purport to want what you want, and defend those who do not.
Blaming "fewer bookings ahead the Referendum". Hmmm.... Funny how other travel firms managed to survive this remarkable phenomenon.
Nothing to do with a crap business model and poor management then?
Yep, if you operate a business model based solely on squeezing very tight margins and high volume deal flow you are going to come unstuck at some stage. If it hadn't have been Brexit it would have been something else.
There might have been, I don't know, a coup in Turkey or a terrorist attack on the French Riviera that caused bookings to fall off a cliff.
Thank goodness it was only a narrow win in a non-binding plebiscite that won't take effect for years that finished them off, eh? That really shows how useless their business model was.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
She certainly believed in Brexit. Quite some politician to hold her nose and pretend to support Remain out of loyalty. The proof of her brilliance? Well ... just look now.
If she supported leave privately then her actions since the win which show she has no wish to be a continuity Cameroon, woukd prove she did not go remain out of loyalty but ambition, that she calculated she could be top of the pile. And she was certainly right and the best of the options.
Yet Cameron clearly thought she was *one of his*. He was very pleased that she was victorious - and given the upset amongst culled Cameroons, they weren't expecting to be dumped either.
She's promoted a bunch of people from her own old team/friends instead. I'm reserving judgement on her for at least three months.
The question is whether she has done this for political or personality reasons. For there is no doubt that binning the Cameroons sends a very political message; we all now see the government as a distinct break with the past, and she has now created space and authority to shape her own distinctive agenda. That 'works' as an explanation without needing to consider whether she has dumped former friends or never got on with them all along (which would be kind of odd, given her position and history).
Blaming "fewer bookings ahead the Referendum". Hmmm.... Funny how other travel firms managed to survive this remarkable phenomenon.
Nothing to do with a crap business model and poor management then?
I think it's fair to say that every business that closes between now and Christmas is going to blame Brexit. Well, you would, wouldn't you?
No! Instead it shows the bad management and underfunding of many of these so called Travel firms. I would never have my holidays arranged by some of these nincompoops.
Well they've got three years to organise because they will never get this chance again. They must unite the anti-Erdogan factions before the election and put forward a credible alternative.
That probably wont happen. The Kurds, the Kemalists and the Nationalists can never unite into a single faction.
And Erdogan would stomp on it anyway, he is already trying to arrest all Kurdish MP's to give himself the mumbers to pass his constitutional changes through the Turkish Parliament. And he has complete control over the media, the judiciary, the police, and now the army.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Fox and Davis are huge gambles. It's not as if they are dealmaking titans with extraordinary pedigrees of success. They're in there on the tent pissing theory alone.
Actually I would have said Leadsom is a much bigger gamble. Particularly given the very complicated administrative procedures DEFRA have evolved to try and hide their serial incompetence.
It's all the more unwise as she could have appeased Leavers by reappointing Paterson, who at least knew one end of a cow from the other and who bashed his recalcitrant staff into line.
Blaming "fewer bookings ahead the Referendum". Hmmm.... Funny how other travel firms managed to survive this remarkable phenomenon.
Nothing to do with a crap business model and poor management then?
I think it's fair to say that every business that closes between now and Christmas is going to blame Brexit. Well, you would, wouldn't you?
No! Instead it shows the bad management and underfunding of many of these so called Travel firms. I would never have my holidays arranged by some of these nincompoops.
I think you entirely missed my point.
I'm saying that every firm that goes bust - whatever the underlying cause - is going to blame Brexit because it's easier than saying "we were shit"
Blaming "fewer bookings ahead the Referendum". Hmmm.... Funny how other travel firms managed to survive this remarkable phenomenon.
Nothing to do with a crap business model and poor management then?
Maybe - depends I suppose if others go under - there seems to be no obvious reasons for a late boom in bookings to Europe given the 10% devaluation. Of course events in Turkey will help. Maybe if the UKs glorious hot, dry summer continues the ;staycation' will make a comeback. As I write I'm looking out at the same clear blue sky we've enjoyed here since April and will likely still have in October.
The fact Trump closed the gap in late May shows that either of these flawed candidates could win. Trump draws in people not previously interested in politics. The crucial question will be if this is outweighed by usual Republican voters sitting on their hands.
Well they've got three years to organise because they will never get this chance again. They must unite the anti-Erdogan factions before the election and put forward a credible alternative.
That probably wont happen. The Kurds, the Kemalists and the Nationalists can never unite into a single faction.
And Erdogan would stomp on it anyway, he is already trying to arrest all Kurdish MP's to give himself the mumbers to pass his constitutional changes through the Turkish Parliament. And he has complete control over the media, the judiciary, the police, and now the army.
That's not true though, is it? The Gulenists still have significant control over parts of the media, education and the police, and especially the judiciary. At least before today.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Fox and Davis are huge gambles. It's not as if they are dealmaking titans with extraordinary pedigrees of success. They're in there on the tent pissing theory alone.
Davis is the biggest gamble IMO. Like him or not, Fox was still the defence secretary and did a fair job.
'It's bizarre that you seem determined to miss SO's point. Maybe the clue lies in your sentence above when you refer to 'sensible people' and then think Baker/Baron/Redwood/Cash......'
The Brexit negotiations are being led by the Brexiters,if it was by 'Leavers' then you can expect impatience from Redwood et al.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
She certainly believed in Brexit. Quite some politician to hold her nose and pretend to support Remain out of loyalty. The proof of her brilliance? Well ... just look now.
If she supported leave privately then her actions since the win which show she has no wish to be a continuity Cameroon, woukd prove she did not go remain out of loyalty but ambition, that she calculated she could be top of the pile. And she was certainly right and the best of the options.
Yet Cameron clearly thought she was *one of his*. He was very pleased that she was victorious - and given the upset amongst culled Cameroons, they weren't expecting to be dumped either.
She's promoted a bunch of people from her own old team/friends instead. I'm reserving judgement on her for at least three months.
The question is whether she has done this for political or personality reasons. For there is no doubt that binning the Cameroons sends a very political message; we all now see the government as a distinct break with the past, and she has now created space and authority to shape her own distinctive agenda. That 'works' as an explanation without needing to consider whether she has dumped former friends or never got on with them all along (which would be kind of odd, given her position and history).
It works, so long as the new faces brought in to provide the new agenda are proved at the least no worse than the old lot. If they are dmostrably worse then the mass changes to stamp her own authority was done at the cost of the country's administration. If they are fine or better, that's great, it was about providing a break. Although that it is so decisive a break makes it very easy to think she has harboured long dislikes and grudges for years.
As Plato says, it's too early judge which way it might go. May was the best option. But there's no proof yet she's an improvement or less petty or anything like that. She might well be, but things need time to settle.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Fox is the worry, he already had to resign as Defence secretary over an alledged bribery scandal from the saudis.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Fox and Davis are huge gambles. It's not as if they are dealmaking titans with extraordinary pedigrees of success. They're in there on the tent pissing theory alone.
Actually I would have said Leadsom is a much bigger gamble. Particularly given the very complicated administrative procedures DEFRA have evolved to try and hide their serial incompetence.
It's all the more unwise as she could have appeased Leavers by reappointing Paterson, who at least knew one end of a cow from the other and who bashed his recalcitrant staff into line.
Leadsom needs a male Junior to 'nanny 'her in the post.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Fox and Davis are huge gambles. It's not as if they are dealmaking titans with extraordinary pedigrees of success. They're in there on the tent pissing theory alone.
Actually I would have said Leadsom is a much bigger gamble. Particularly given the very complicated administrative procedures DEFRA have evolved to try and hide their serial incompetence.
It's all the more unwise as she could have appeased Leavers by reappointing Paterson, who at least knew one end of a cow from the other and who bashed his recalcitrant staff into line.
No-one will notice Leadsom. Davis and Fox are in very high profile positions.
No! Instead it shows the bad management and underfunding of many of these so called Travel firms. I would never have my holidays arranged by some of these nincompoops.
Best (or worst) I ever heard of was a firm that booked 40 beds for a party of 37 students and three adults. They were in mixed rooms on a foreign train service.
That is; mixed with the general public, mixed between boys and girls, and mixed between staff and students, including a man roomed with two fifteen year old girls.
Very fortunately the tour leader was a very alert woman, spotted it and was able to insist on a rethink. But she had terrible trouble convincing them it was necessary!
Well they've got three years to organise because they will never get this chance again. They must unite the anti-Erdogan factions before the election and put forward a credible alternative.
Indeed.
While many opposed the coup on principle despite being erdogan opponents, my cynicism wonders how many might not have publicly opposed the coup if it had looked like it might be able to beat erdogan. But regardless it's not easy to condemn those who purport to want what you want, and defend those who do not.
I think if the coup had a leader instead of this nebulous council of peace then it would have got a lot more support. A single voixe explaining that they intend to protect Atatürk's vision of a secular nation by reversing recent changes to the constitution that have made it more Islamic and introduction of a new law to make illegal affiliation between political parties and religion. That would have swung a lot of people.
Kle4 I agree except that she couldn't have known Leave would win. I think she thought Remain would win and she should be loyal to Cameron as she has been all down the years.
I repeat, she's formidable. She might have all the attributes of Thatcher without the shortcomings.
Impossible to say ahead of time, particularly as bad habits have a way of growing over time. But we can hope you're right.
No she didn't know leave would win, it was a gamble. Boris was for leave for one. And she definitely was understated in support for remain. She had options whoever won.
But the fact of her loyalty while Cameron was in power was not the point. You purported she held her nose and went against her own leave inclination out of loyalty, and that seems unlikely to me. Tactics woukd seem a more realistic reason, particilaly given how well she played the aftermath.
Either she was genuinely for remain, despite being understated about it, and is now being professional and will go for as good a Brexit deal as possible. Or she was a liar and actually supported leave and pretended otherwise despite it being a free vote which cabinet members were able to vote their conscience.
Personally I'd prefer the former as it speaks well of her. The latter would make it just about her own advancement.
She clearly places a high value on loyalty - given and received - which is rather more noble than simple ambition (although is not of course without its downside).
I suspect her instincts were for leave (maybe tempered with some understandable caution about the risks and process) but she, like most people, thought remain would win and didn't think the gamble of backing leave was worth risking everything she had slowly and carefully achieved for. I would be stunned if she had calculated it was a route toward becoming PM (although with a remain win the contest would be 2019 not now), simply the best way not to risk finding herself out in the cold.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Fox and Davis are huge gambles. It's not as if they are dealmaking titans with extraordinary pedigrees of success. They're in there on the tent pissing theory alone.
Actually I would have said Leadsom is a much bigger gamble. Particularly given the very complicated administrative procedures DEFRA have evolved to try and hide their serial incompetence.
It's all the more unwise as she could have appeased Leavers by reappointing Paterson, who at least knew one end of a cow from the other and who bashed his recalcitrant staff into line.
No-one will notice Leadsom. Davis and Fox are in very high profile positions.
When CAP is being sorted, DEFRA will be vital, and it is one place a major explosion in a true blue constituency could happen over Brexit.
On the other hand, she's good at talking bullocks.
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.
I think that's absolutely right. I wouldn't be at all surprised if turkey left NATO in the next five years.
Erdogan won't leave NATO. If he leaves NATO it will automatically solve the problem of how to deal with a NATO member that is an emeny of NATO at the same time.
That will be contrary to his interest in confusing western policy reaction to him, since he is presently clearly an enemy of the west but also an ally on paper, thus confusing western foreign policy.
How important is NATO membership to Turkey? Do we have any leverage?
My own conclusion is that we just have to diversify our energy sources and keep the price of oil at reasonable levels. Saudi is going to be in big trouble if the oil price doesn't recover.
I also had a check of the fertility rates in Egypt, Turkey and Iran - which if oil doesn't recover are the 3 states that really matter. In Egypt it is 2.6, Turkey 2 and Iran 1.8. It could easily fall a lot lower. Seems as if women are no longer prepared to be baby-making machines. Have their minds been poisoned by the west?
This is happening the world over. In very crude terms, we are already at 'peak child'. The demographic story of the next generation will be the global population continuing to expand as the current generation of children ages, with much of the growth in Africa which was last to reduce fertility rates, but with the same number of new children replacing them. At the moment it looks as if the global population will level off in fifty years or so.
The fact Trump closed the gap in late May shows that either of these flawed candidates could win. Trump draws in people not previously interested in politics. The crucial question will be if this is outweighed by usual Republican voters sitting on their hands.
Trump's support is like a yo-yo. It depends over when NeverTrump has a fit or not.
The funny thing is that looking at the Gallup favourables historically, Trump's numbers among republicans go up everytime there is a full moon and a new moon, and slides in between like a tide. If that weird pattern holds then the GE result will depend on whether it's a full moon around voting day.
Hillary's numbers among democrats are always 70-25 no matter what happens.
It is telling that Trump got a bounce when he got the nomination, but Hillary did not.
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
It could have swung the 2% that he needed to win. The EU leaders would have forgiven him if he delivered a 50.1/49.9 victory for remain even if it meant taking Turkish membership off the table for a bit longer.
Kle4 I agree except that she couldn't have known Leave would win. I think she thought Remain would win and she should be loyal to Cameron as she has been all down the years.
I repeat, she's formidable. She might have all the attributes of Thatcher without the shortcomings.
Impossible to say ahead of time, particularly as bad habits have a way of growing over time. But we can hope you're right.
No she didn't know leave would win, it was a gamble. Boris was for leave for one. And she definitely was understated in support for remain. She had options whoever won.
But the fact of her loyalty while Cameron was in power was not the point. You purported she held her nose and went against her own leave inclination out of loyalty, and that seems unlikely to me. Tactics woukd seem a more realistic reason, particilaly given how well she played the aftermath.
Either she was genuinely for remain, despite being understated about it, and is now being professional and will go for as good a Brexit deal as possible. Or she was a liar and actually supported leave and pretended otherwise despite it being a free vote which cabinet members were able to vote their conscience.
Personally I'd prefer the former as it speaks well of her. The latter would make it just about her own advancement.
She clearly places a high value on loyalty - given and received - which is rather more noble than simple ambition (although is not of course without its downside).
I suspect her instincts were for leave (maybe tempered with some understandable caution about the risks and process) but she, like most people, thought remain would win and didn't think the gamble of backing leave was worth risking everything she had slowly and carefully achieved for. I would be stunned if she had calculated it was a route toward becoming PM (although with a remain win the contest would be 2019 not now), simply the best way not to risk finding herself out in the cold.
It wasn't me saying she in effect lied about being a remainer - I'd prefer your interpretation that she didn't think leave was worth the risk, that she was genuine, I was surprised a fan of Mays suggested she in effect lied. Personally I think a contest post remain win woukd have been in2017, and she would have been well placed for that too. I'm not suggesting it was her sole driving motivation, but that her choices helped make her a more distinct option than leaver Boris while not pissing off leavers, was a canny move nevertheless.
It's a real mixed bag for Priti. She wanted DfiD disbanded not so long ago - so it may be 'eat your greens' appointment by May. I think she'll take a knife to a lot of the nonsense spending that went on under previous regimes.
Greening was very rapidly house-trained there after an initial good start. I can't see Priti being deflected by anyone. She's very hawkish.
By the way, did anyone catch Lynne Featherstone's praise of Theresa May over the same sex marriage bill? I think it surprised a number of us to discover the bill may have fallen had TM not backed it to the hilt against massive opposition in the Home Office.
You have to ask - what the hell are the Home Office's priorities, if it thought same sex marriage was something they needed to get all worked up about?
It's a real mixed bag for Priti. She wanted DfiD disbanded not so long ago - so it may be 'eat your greens' appointment by May. I think she'll take a knife to a lot of the nonsense spending that went on under previous regimes.
Greening was very rapidly house-trained there after an initial good start. I can't see Priti being deflected by anyone. She's very hawkish.
DfID spending is still protected at 0.7% of GDP, the cuts would have to be recycled.
Oh indeed. Treason is treason. All the more reason for them to plot it properly beforehand. Idiots.
It's a disaster for Europe though. The army will be purged, Erdogan strengthened and Turkey will turn further from secularism; and the people who came out to support him will find the rights stripped further.
It's a disaster for the people of Turkey, most of all.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
My son was off to book a cheap Turkish beach holiday with his mates today. They're going to Spain now.
I am off to Cleethorpes.
Much more sensible, and somewhat less likely to be any trouble there.
On the wider point, with the weaker pound and a lot of political problems in tourist hotspots abroad, I wonder if the bucket and spade holiday in the UK will be more popular this year, providing a welcome boost to the economy?
It looks as if the phrase 'inspired' rather than directed is the most that can apply on this one in the absence of firm signs that IS organised it or perhaps even had much awareness of it.
By the way, did anyone catch Lynne Featherstone's praise of Theresa May over the same sex marriage bill? I think it surprised a number of us to discover the bill may have fallen had TM not backed it to the hilt against massive opposition in the Home Office.
You have to ask - what the hell are the Home Office's priorities, if it thought same sex marriage was something they needed to get all worked up about?
Our civil service needs a damned good slap.
Forgive my ignorance of government, but What was it even to do with the home office? Surely outside a few small hanged this was entirely a political issue they coukd leave to politicians to debate?
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
It could have swung the 2% that he needed to win. The EU leaders would have forgiven him if he delivered a 50.1/49.9 victory for remain even if it meant taking Turkish membership off the table for a bit longer.
I don't think EU membership has ever really been on the cards for Turkey. It was like the dinner invitation you give to an acquaintance that avoids any actual mention of a time or date.
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
Leave's scaremongering was also justified, as yesterday proved.
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
It could have swung the 2% that he needed to win. The EU leaders would have forgiven him if he delivered a 50.1/49.9 victory for remain even if it meant taking Turkish membership off the table for a bit longer.
I don't think EU membership has ever really been on the cards for Turkey. It was like the dinner invitation you give to an acquaintance that avoids any actual mention of a time or date.
Agreed, but against the empty rhetoric an equally empty gesture would have worked. It would have been more effective than the £4300 guff at least. I'm glad he didn't because remain probably would have squeaked home.
But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.
I think that's absolutely right. I wouldn't be at all surprised if turkey left NATO in the next five years.
Erdogan won't leave NATO. If he leaves NATO it will automatically solve the problem of how to deal with a NATO member that is an emeny of NATO at the same time.
That will be contrary to his interest in confusing western policy reaction to him, since he is presently clearly an enemy of the west but also an ally on paper, thus confusing western foreign policy.
How important is NATO membership to Turkey? Do we have any leverage?
My own conclusion is that we just have to diversify our energy sources and keep the price of oil at reasonable levels. Saudi is going to be in big trouble if the oil price doesn't recover.
I also had a check of the fertility rates in Egypt, Turkey and Iran - which if oil doesn't recover are the 3 states that really matter. In Egypt it is 2.6, Turkey 2 and Iran 1.8. It could easily fall a lot lower. Seems as if women are no longer prepared to be baby-making machines. Have their minds been poisoned by the west?
On energy, the world is a lot safer (as in, less dependent on the Middle East) than it was five years ago. There have been massive, almost unbelievable, gas discoveries to add to the very large amount of shale gas that's commercially recoverable in the US and Canada. (This matters more than you think, because gas can be converted to oil, and because the transportation network is moving towards electric.)
Tight oil in the US is going to keep on rocking for a long time. (And Canada is getting in on the act too. Russia, Australia and other places will also start producing tight oil in time.) Plus, there's a potentially massive new petroleum basin opening up off-shore Guyana and Surinam.
Whilst it may be a good thing to get off reliance on middle east energy - it's just too politically unstable - there's also danger in those societies collapsing entirely. People with nothing to lose can be very dangerous.
I read all of Nick Timothy's Con Home columns. He's my kind of Tory. He's clearly influenced May's views - her Birmingham speech was his agenda in a nutshell.
After reading his columns, I'm wondering if Mrs May voted Leave in the polling booth. Good times ahead.
It wouldn't at all surprise me if both May and Hammond privately voted Leave. Hammond in particular has always been very Eurosceptic and had obviously been leant on heavily to support Dave's 'deal'. It would explain why they both kept a very low profile and didn't campaign for the Remain side - nothing worse than an unconvincing advocate.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Fox and Davis are huge gambles. It's not as if they are dealmaking titans with extraordinary pedigrees of success. They're in there on the tent pissing theory alone.
For both of them, however, it's their last career chance to be pissing out from the warm. Despite all the talk of how quickly they might flounce out over some point of Brexit principle, I reckon they will be very loyal to May and do their best to stay inside the tent. Hence they will back pretty much any deal that comes out of Brexit. Hence they are May's insurance against the real nutters trying to rock the boat when the deal emerges.
The Brexit deal will have to go through parliament. May will be thinking forward to her need for at least some of the opposition onside to prevent the Jenkin/Cash type idiots having any leverage. Or an election meanwhile, of course.
Oh indeed. Treason is treason. All the more reason for them to plot it properly beforehand. Idiots.
It's a disaster for Europe though. The army will be purged, Erdogan strengthened and Turkey will turn further from secularism; and the people who came out to support him will find the rights stripped further.
It's a disaster for the people of Turkey, most of all.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
My son was off to book a cheap Turkish beach holiday with his mates today. They're going to Spain now.
I am off to Cleethorpes.
Much more sensible, and somewhat less likely to be any trouble there.
On the wider point, with the weaker pound and a lot of political problems in tourist hotspots abroad, I wonder if the bucket and spade holiday in the UK will be more popular this year, providing a welcome boost to the economy?
I dunno, right in the heart of anti-Corbyn country, if a coup goes ahead there will be lots of angry Northerners trying to take back control
"For, I say it again, Trump is the law and order candidate. I don’t mean law and order in the sense of defending the Constitution: even Mike Pence once observed that Trump’s proposed ban on Muslim immigration contradicts that much misread document. But Democrats aren’t too hot on constitutionality, either.
Barack Obama has assassinated US citizens with drone strikes and Hillary Clinton has lied in office and probably endangered national security.
No, Trump embodies not legalistic niceties but rough justice – at a time when Western society seems, to many voters, far too tolerant and weak. “Another horrific attack,” he tweeted in the aftermath of Nice. “When will we learn? It is only getting worse.”
It's a real mixed bag for Priti. She wanted DfiD disbanded not so long ago - so it may be 'eat your greens' appointment by May. I think she'll take a knife to a lot of the nonsense spending that went on under previous regimes.
Greening was very rapidly house-trained there after an initial good start. I can't see Priti being deflected by anyone. She's very hawkish.
DfID spending is still protected at 0.7% of GDP, the cuts would have to be recycled.
I'm sure they can find imaginative ways of keeping the 0.7% promise. A large amount can probably find its way to the MoD for various overseas escapades, and there will be strong support for spending as much as necessary on keeping Syrian refugees in the surrounding area rather than letting them all try and make it to Europe.
May, will do a good job as long as she is not let down by those she has given a second chance.
Unfortunately, Fox and Davis, don't inspire confidence. Fox showed terrible judgement while at defence. Davis will manufacture a point of principle to flounce out when it starts getting difficult.
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
It could have swung the 2% that he needed to win. The EU leaders would have forgiven him if he delivered a 50.1/49.9 victory for remain even if it meant taking Turkish membership off the table for a bit longer.
I don't think EU membership has ever really been on the cards for Turkey. It was like the dinner invitation you give to an acquaintance that avoids any actual mention of a time or date.
But Blair and Cameron had publicly advocated it. As disingenuous as the Leave campaign may have been I'm not sure the issue would have caught hold without that.
But it seems pretty inevitable to me now that, under Erdogan, Turkey is going to gradually fall out of the orbit of the West and take a path more like the other muslim majority MENA countries.
I think that's absolutely right. I wouldn't be at all surprised if turkey left NATO in the next five years.
Erdogan won't leave NATO. If he leaves NATO it will automatically solve the problem of how to deal with a NATO member that is an emeny of NATO at the same time.
That will be contrary to his interest in confusing western policy reaction to him, since he is presently clearly an enemy of the west but also an ally on paper, thus confusing western foreign policy.
How important is NATO membership to Turkey? Do we have any leverage?
My own conclusion is that we just have to diversify our energy sources and keep the price of oil at reasonable levels. Saudi is going to be in big trouble if the oil price doesn't recover.
I also had a check of the fertility rates in Egypt, Turkey and Iran - which if oil doesn't recover are the 3 states that really matter. In Egypt it is 2.6, Turkey 2 and Iran 1.8. It could easily fall a lot lower. Seems as if women are no longer prepared to be baby-making machines. Have their minds been poisoned by the west?
This is happening the world over. In very crude terms, we are already at 'peak child'. The demographic story of the next generation will be the global population continuing to expand as the current generation of children ages, with much of the growth in Africa which was last to reduce fertility rates, but with the same number of new children replacing them. At the moment it looks as if the global population will level off in fifty years or so.
China's working age population is already falling. There are probably figures on the global working population, but it's the weekend, so I'm feeling lazy .
DFID actually does a lot of good work and, despite the cheap political flak it gets, is a department of which we can be proud. Plus you need a combination of intelligence and resilience to work in a field like that. So the officials will win, Pritti will go native, and be kept very busy meanwhile. Besides, the department is hers, now, and she is not about to put herself out of a job.
It's a real mixed bag for Priti. She wanted DfiD disbanded not so long ago - so it may be 'eat your greens' appointment by May. I think she'll take a knife to a lot of the nonsense spending that went on under previous regimes.
Greening was very rapidly house-trained there after an initial good start. I can't see Priti being deflected by anyone. She's very hawkish.
DfID spending is still protected at 0.7% of GDP, the cuts would have to be recycled.
I'm sure they can find imaginative ways of keeping the 0.7% promise. A large amount can probably find its way to the MoD for various overseas escapades, and there will be strong support for spending as much as necessary on keeping Syrian refugees in the surrounding area rather than letting them all try and make it to Europe.
My guess would be that we might give some of the Overseas Aid budget to the Navy to help deal with boats in the Mediterranean.
It's a real mixed bag for Priti. She wanted DfiD disbanded not so long ago - so it may be 'eat your greens' appointment by May. I think she'll take a knife to a lot of the nonsense spending that went on under previous regimes.
Greening was very rapidly house-trained there after an initial good start. I can't see Priti being deflected by anyone. She's very hawkish.
DfID spending is still protected at 0.7% of GDP, the cuts would have to be recycled.
I'm sure they can find imaginative ways of keeping the 0.7% promise. A large amount can probably find its way to the MoD for various overseas escapades, and there will be strong support for spending as much as necessary on keeping Syrian refugees in the surrounding area rather than letting them all try and make it to Europe.
My guess would be that we might give some of the Overseas Aid budget to the Navy to help deal with boats in the Mediterranean.
That's what I'm expecting - and much tighter control of the NGOs.
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
Leave's scaremongering was also justified, as yesterday proved.
(Snip)
No, it wasn't. If anything yesterday 'proved' the opposite.
DFID actually does a lot of good work and, despite the cheap political flak it gets, is a department of which we can be proud. Plus you need a combination of intelligence and resilience to work in a field like that. So the officials will win, Pritti will go native, and be kept very busy meanwhile. Besides, the department is hers, now, and she is not about to put herself out of a job.
Holiday camp full of numpties doling out money some of which is badly needed to be spent at home.
Well they've got three years to organise because they will never get this chance again. They must unite the anti-Erdogan factions before the election and put forward a credible alternative.
They don't need to unite, do they? The voting system does that for them, their presidential elections have two rounds.
Oh indeed. Treason is treason. All the more reason for them to plot it properly beforehand. Idiots.
It's a disaster for Europe though. The army will be purged, Erdogan strengthened and Turkey will turn further from secularism; and the people who came out to support him will find the rights stripped further.
It's a disaster for the people of Turkey, most of all.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
My son was off to book a cheap Turkish beach holiday with his mates today. They're going to Spain now.
I am off to Cleethorpes.
Much more sensible, and somewhat less likely to be any trouble there.
On the wider point, with the weaker pound and a lot of political problems in tourist hotspots abroad, I wonder if the bucket and spade holiday in the UK will be more popular this year, providing a welcome boost to the economy?
The more welcome boost will be the sudden bargain that we offer to Americans and travellers from the Far East coming here.
By the way, did anyone catch Lynne Featherstone's praise of Theresa May over the same sex marriage bill? I think it surprised a number of us to discover the bill may have fallen had TM not backed it to the hilt against massive opposition in the Home Office.
You have to ask - what the hell are the Home Office's priorities, if it thought same sex marriage was something they needed to get all worked up about?
Our civil service needs a damned good slap.
Forgive my ignorance of government, but What was it even to do with the home office? Surely outside a few small hanged this was entirely a political issue they coukd leave to politicians to debate?
The home office was the sponsoring department (and the LibDem within the HO the initiating minister). Getting your own department on board is the first step for any minister wanting to change the law. Doubtless the Home Office Sir Humphries had a list of reasons why it was all too difficult?
Oh indeed. Treason is treason. All the more reason for them to plot it properly beforehand. Idiots.
It's a disaster for Europe though. The army will be purged, Erdogan strengthened and Turkey will turn further from secularism; and the people who came out to support him will find the rights stripped further.
It's a disaster for the people of Turkey, most of all.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
My son was off to book a cheap Turkish beach holiday with his mates today. They're going to Spain now.
I am off to Cleethorpes.
That's brave. Have you not seen* Sacha Baron Cohen's documentary film "Grimsby"?
(*no, neither have I, but you can't let that get in the way of a gag....)
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
Leave's scaremongering was also justified, as yesterday proved.
(Snip)
No, it wasn't. If anything yesterday 'proved' the opposite.
It's a real mixed bag for Priti. She wanted DfiD disbanded not so long ago - so it may be 'eat your greens' appointment by May. I think she'll take a knife to a lot of the nonsense spending that went on under previous regimes.
Greening was very rapidly house-trained there after an initial good start. I can't see Priti being deflected by anyone. She's very hawkish.
I think Priti is preparing the department for the axe in the next administration. A change from handouts, to generous trade deals.
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
Leave's scaremongering was also justified, as yesterday proved.
(Snip)
No, it wasn't. If anything yesterday 'proved' the opposite.
Do you think anybody watching the news thinks:
Its about time Turkey joined the EU?
But Blackburn, you're not stupid. You know the Turkey story was always a lie. A convenient and persuasive one, but a lie nonetheless.
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
Leave's scaremongering was also justified, as yesterday proved.
(Snip)
No, it wasn't. If anything yesterday 'proved' the opposite.
Do you think anybody watching the news thinks:
Its about time Turkey joined the EU?
It proved the chances of it joining any time soon are a nonsense.
We had a PM called Cameron who wanted Turkey to join the EU.
It's becoming increasingly clear that he and his chums ran govt to their own benefit, none of them are anywhere to be seen. Still, he's looking on from his £17m house, like his idol Blair he had a plan all along.
That, as you well know, is an extremely partial view.
Cameron was keen on the modernising, more secular, Westward-looking Turkey of 2011 joining. The one that was abolishing the death penalty and making other reforms in line with the Copenhagen principles. He wasn't at all keen on today's Turkey, where the government has pivoted and is now facing much more to Mecca; hence all his comment during the referendum.
Yeah but yeah but yeah but, Cameron wanted Turkey to join, he never said otherwise, it was one of the biggest factors in the referendum.
During the referendum, did he *want* - present tense - Turkey to join?
Leave lied consistently about Turkey during the campaign.
Not publicly, but yes. Clearly he did. If he had reversed the policy and said he would veto Turkish membership and insist on A 30-40 year transition period for migration to allow them in it would have neutralised the issue. Cameron is personally attached to Turkey's membership for some deranged reason.
When Turkey looked like it was becoming more "European" in practice Cameron was favourably inclined. In recent years the authoritarian actions of the government would have changed Cameron's mind but it would not have been politic to publicly say so now that Turkey is needed to salvage Merkel's migration fiasco. In international politics it is not always wise to appease local critics. The unrest in Turkey will seriously set back its EU objectives and shows that Leave's scaremongering was just that.
Leave's scaremongering was also justified, as yesterday proved.
(Snip)
No, it wasn't. If anything yesterday 'proved' the opposite.
Do you think anybody watching the news thinks:
Its about time Turkey joined the EU?
Of course not. And they weren't going to for a long, long time, for the reasons myself and others have given many times passim.
Oh indeed. Treason is treason. All the more reason for them to plot it properly beforehand. Idiots.
It's a disaster for Europe though. The army will be purged, Erdogan strengthened and Turkey will turn further from secularism; and the people who came out to support him will find the rights stripped further.
It's a disaster for the people of Turkey, most of all.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
My son was off to book a cheap Turkish beach holiday with his mates today. They're going to Spain now.
I am off to Cleethorpes.
Much more sensible, and somewhat less likely to be any trouble there.
On the wider point, with the weaker pound and a lot of political problems in tourist hotspots abroad, I wonder if the bucket and spade holiday in the UK will be more popular this year, providing a welcome boost to the economy?
The more welcome boost will be the sudden bargain that we offer to Americans and travellers from the Far East coming here.
Comments
Last week Team Gove apparently contacted May's team to do a deal. They replied, 'we don't need a cuckoo in the nest.'
It has been said of Theresa May that she is fiercely loyal. She will reward loyalty and, conversely, punish those who aren't.
Quite right too.
She's promoted a bunch of people from her own old team/friends instead. I'm reserving judgement on her for at least three months.
When it comes to that corner of europe and asia, I'm well informed.
Don't forget that I said early last year that Tsipras will never allow Greece to leave the eurozone and that Varoufakis was a complete idiot, I was right.
https://twitter.com/mike_giglio/status/754163588563136512
Fortunately they're safe atm.
I suspect the impact on the rest of Europe will be very modest. Ultimately, it's not in the power of the Turkish state to bus refugees into Europe. And it would come with an incredibly high economic cost to attempt to increase the flow. The EU accounts for more than 50% of Turkey's exports, and Erdogan will want to increase government spending - no reward those who supported him and punished those who did not. Tourism, one would suspect, is going to be... more subdued for a period in time.
Of course, with North Africa off the map for tourists, and now Turkey too, it's great news for the economies of Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain - all of whom will get a boost until things have quietened down.
As ever when looking at a country, and especially it's foreign policy, look at it's internal situation.
or
Cricket
Hmmmm...
No she didn't know leave would win, it was a gamble. Boris was for leave for one. And she definitely was understated in support for remain. She had options whoever won.
But the fact of her loyalty while Cameron was in power was not the point. You purported she held her nose and went against her own leave inclination out of loyalty, and that seems unlikely to me. Tactics woukd seem a more realistic reason, particilaly given how well she played the aftermath.
Either she was genuinely for remain, despite being understated about it, and is now being professional and will go for as good a Brexit deal as possible. Or she was a liar and actually supported leave and pretended otherwise despite it being a free vote which cabinet members were able to vote their conscience.
Personally I'd prefer the former as it speaks well of her. The latter would make it just about her own advancement.
My own conclusion is that we just have to diversify our energy sources and keep the price of oil at reasonable levels. Saudi is going to be in big trouble if the oil price doesn't recover.
I also had a check of the fertility rates in Egypt, Turkey and Iran - which if oil doesn't recover are the 3 states that really matter. In Egypt it is 2.6, Turkey 2 and Iran 1.8. It could easily fall a lot lower. Seems as if women are no longer prepared to be baby-making machines. Have their minds been poisoned by the west?
But Germany took control anyway.
Morale cited as very low being the main factor. Concerns formally registered the day before the attack re woeful level of organisation/manning.
Oops.
At the time this followed a period of some weeks where commentators were suggesting this might be what May was thinking of doing. Instead, by some combination of accident and design (and if it was all design isn't that almost scary?) she watched Boris go for it, crash and burn. In a parallel universe somewhere Boris didn't fall out with Gove and is now our PM and Gove our Chancellor.
And now she has appointed Justine to Ed Sec. Good days to be LGBT. At least in Britain.
Tight oil in the US is going to keep on rocking for a long time. (And Canada is getting in on the act too. Russia, Australia and other places will also start producing tight oil in time.) Plus, there's a potentially massive new petroleum basin opening up off-shore Guyana and Surinam.
It also meant, vey fortunately, that they are in an excellent position to clear up the mess. They have not destroyed themselves by publicly failing, nor given hostages to fortune by making extravagant promises they can't keep.
They are also in my judgment much abler administrators, more astute politicians and cleverer people than Cameron and Osborne.
That said, I am pretty worried by some of these cabinet appointments. It is hard to see how Leadsom, Truss, Fox and above all Johnson are going to end well. May has gambled big time. If it works, she's a genius. If however it doesn't...
Nothing to do with a crap business model and poor management then?
While many opposed the coup on principle despite being erdogan opponents, my cynicism wonders how many might not have publicly opposed the coup if it had looked like it might be able to beat erdogan. But regardless it's not easy to condemn those who purport to want what you want, and defend those who do not.
Thank goodness it was only a narrow win in a non-binding plebiscite that won't take effect for years that finished them off, eh? That really shows how useless their business model was.
https://twitter.com/andrewspoooner/status/754021501893013504
The Kurds, the Kemalists and the Nationalists can never unite into a single faction.
And Erdogan would stomp on it anyway, he is already trying to arrest all Kurdish MP's to give himself the mumbers to pass his constitutional changes through the Turkish Parliament.
And he has complete control over the media, the judiciary, the police, and now the army.
It's all the more unwise as she could have appeased Leavers by reappointing Paterson, who at least knew one end of a cow from the other and who bashed his recalcitrant staff into line.
I'm saying that every firm that goes bust - whatever the underlying cause - is going to blame Brexit because it's easier than saying "we were shit"
'It's bizarre that you seem determined to miss SO's point. Maybe the clue lies in your sentence above when you refer to 'sensible people' and then think Baker/Baron/Redwood/Cash......'
The Brexit negotiations are being led by the Brexiters,if it was by 'Leavers' then you can expect impatience from Redwood et al.
As Plato says, it's too early judge which way it might go. May was the best option. But there's no proof yet she's an improvement or less petty or anything like that. She might well be, but things need time to settle.
That is; mixed with the general public, mixed between boys and girls, and mixed between staff and students, including a man roomed with two fifteen year old girls.
Very fortunately the tour leader was a very alert woman, spotted it and was able to insist on a rethink. But she had terrible trouble convincing them it was necessary!
I suspect her instincts were for leave (maybe tempered with some understandable caution about the risks and process) but she, like most people, thought remain would win and didn't think the gamble of backing leave was worth risking everything she had slowly and carefully achieved for. I would be stunned if she had calculated it was a route toward becoming PM (although with a remain win the contest would be 2019 not now), simply the best way not to risk finding herself out in the cold.
On the other hand, she's good at talking bullocks.
It depends over when NeverTrump has a fit or not.
The funny thing is that looking at the Gallup favourables historically, Trump's numbers among republicans go up everytime there is a full moon and a new moon, and slides in between like a tide.
If that weird pattern holds then the GE result will depend on whether it's a full moon around voting day.
Hillary's numbers among democrats are always 70-25 no matter what happens.
It is telling that Trump got a bounce when he got the nomination, but Hillary did not.
Greening was very rapidly house-trained there after an initial good start. I can't see Priti being deflected by anyone. She's very hawkish.
You have to ask - what the hell are the Home Office's priorities, if it thought same sex marriage was something they needed to get all worked up about?
Our civil service needs a damned good slap.
On the wider point, with the weaker pound and a lot of political problems in tourist hotspots abroad, I wonder if the bucket and spade holiday in the UK will be more popular this year, providing a welcome boost to the economy?
It looks as if the phrase 'inspired' rather than directed is the most that can apply on this one in the absence of firm signs that IS organised it or perhaps even had much awareness of it.
Another example of poor judgement by Cameron.
The Brexit deal will have to go through parliament. May will be thinking forward to her need for at least some of the opposition onside to prevent the Jenkin/Cash type idiots having any leverage. Or an election meanwhile, of course.
"For, I say it again, Trump is the law and order candidate. I don’t mean law and order in the sense of defending the Constitution: even Mike Pence once observed that Trump’s proposed ban on Muslim immigration contradicts that much misread document. But Democrats aren’t too hot on constitutionality, either.
Barack Obama has assassinated US citizens with drone strikes and Hillary Clinton has lied in office and probably endangered national security.
No, Trump embodies not legalistic niceties but rough justice – at a time when Western society seems, to many voters, far too tolerant and weak. “Another horrific attack,” he tweeted in the aftermath of Nice. “When will we learn? It is only getting worse.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/the-nice-terror-attack-is-why-donald-trump-might-win/
Unfortunately, Fox and Davis, don't inspire confidence. Fox showed terrible judgement while at defence. Davis will manufacture a point of principle to flounce out when it starts getting difficult.
(*no, neither have I, but you can't let that get in the way of a gag....)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/please-stop-staying-the-nice-attacks-arent-about-islam/
Its about time Turkey joined the EU?
He's right. It's not all to do with Islam. But it is something to do with it.
Ms Baloch recently caused controversy by posting controversial pictures of herself on social media - including one with her alongside a Muslim cleric.
Police say Ms Baloch - a prominent feminist - was strangled to death."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-36814258
Pakistan is a land devoid of "honour".