politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s new government, we’re nearly there
Comments
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Only the SNP voted against the European Union Referendum Act 2015. Passed by 544 votes to 53!JackW said:
The irony is that Cameron's majority on the back of LibDem gains ensured that the referendum went ahead whereas a continuing Coalition would have blocked it and he'd still be PM et al.CarlottaVance said:Cameron's finest hour was undoubtedly forming the coalition government then running it smoothly for 5 years - no mean feat. He's been sloppy, slapdash & lazy since winning the majority - three adjectives no one has ever applied to May......
Funny old lark this politics business.0 -
I think that's probably all true. I hope it continues under May and that a left wing alternative to the Labour Party which might be a natural home for large parts of the BME demographic emerges in due course.murali_s said:
Ethnic minorities disproportionately vote Labour - this is not news. However, a combination of David Cameron and the emergence of UKIP have made the Tories a much more attractive proposition.pbr2013 said:
Which is what I was trying to highlight about surbiton's post.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hmm. even more racist stereo-typing!pbr2013 said:
Tamils in Kingston & Surbiton vote Con or Libdem.surbiton said:
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
Yeah, but they didn't, did they?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 2013, the Remain campaign should've won easily. A better deal, a better campaign would've won it 60/40 at a canter.
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I think it was more a problem of timing. If it were held before 2015 Remain would have won easily.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 2013, the Remain campaign should've won easily. A better deal, a better campaign would've won it 60/40 at a canter.
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Do you have figures for the overlap between OEM suppliers and manufacturers?anotherDave said:
All car manufacturers would be using the same OEM suppliers, and those OEM suppliers had to know what was going on.MaxPB said:
Because the Commission who overlooked their illegal antics are also in charge of the EU response because they set the air quality standards. The German government also seems to be giving them protection because they know all the German car makers have been at it, as proved by the new UK tests.HurstLlama said:
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
I thought this was all about software, anyway. Where do OEM suppliers fit into that?0 -
You weren't supposed to like it. The FT article you linked to when pressed about your tenacious assertion didn't really support it, did it?FF43 said:
I don't much like your implication. I never claimed to quote from a particular article and my summary of the situation matches what was reported in the article.pbr2013 said:
The only actual quote from a US trade official there is one saying we will have to wait and see. And you misquoted him, no doubt accidently.FF43 said:
eg this: Transatlantic trade treaties are no quick fix for Brexitpbr2013 said:
Do you have a (post referendum) link for your last assertion?FF43 said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.John_M said:
I completely agree with all but your last point.FF43 said:
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.0 -
Three EU countries lobbied for the tests to be made less rigorousIshmael_X said:
They are. Figures like $15 bn and upwards are floating around for the provision they have made for settling lawsuits.HurstLlama said:
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/24/uk-france-and-germany-lobbied-for-flawed-car-emissions-tests-documents-reveal?CMP=twt_gu0 -
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/753627358389800960rottenborough said:
This sourced?AndyJS said:Trump's VP candidate = Mike Pence.
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Maybe so, but their customers still couldn't give a f8ck.MaxPB said:
Not really. It's the Commission that are holding back national responses as they want an EU wide settlement.TOPPING said:
Because their customers couldn't give a flying f8ck.HurstLlama said:
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
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I'll stick up for the Civil servants here. The SCS and perhaps the GC6s might be obstructive.runnymede said:
Of course it is. You set up your own unit with your own experts to do the prep work. Actually, if we want this to happen, such a move is probably essential. The civil service are working for the other side.HurstLlama said:
I don't think it is possible to exclude civil servants from government business. Someone has to do the preparatory work and write the position papers for a minister.runnymede said:
They need, in general, to be removed from the process entirely until the implementation stage.HurstLlama said:"The three Brexiteers will be all but irrelevant in the negotiations on Brexit. Their main significance will be the influence they have on their civil servants."
Do not underestimate the importance of doing just that. A large number of civil servants, especially at the FCO, have just had the rug of their world pulled out from beneath them and will be struggling to cope with the new requirements. Those same civil servants will be doing a lot of the detail and writing the position papers.
To get a good deal for the UK those civil servants will need close guidance and support.
The administrative grades will do the necessary. Despite all the brickbats, we have many very fine civil servants. That said, from my own experience, the quality range in the civil service is huge. The smartest people I've ever worked with were at Cheltenham. Sadly, so were the dimmest.0 -
Gingrich was proving to be too dangerously liberal, Trump needs someone who will join his campaign to stoke up racial tension, promise economic pie in the sky and stop the wrong people from voting.Speedy said:
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/753627358389800960rottenborough said:
This sourced?AndyJS said:Trump's VP candidate = Mike Pence.
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It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
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and how does that compare to a moderate radical?The_Apocalypse said:Eddie Izzard means well, bless him. Nonetheless WTF is a 'radical moderate'? Surely that's an oxymoron?
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Mr. 2013, indeed, but the assumption wasn't wrong in itself, it turned out wrong because the campaign was horrendous.
Mr. Glenn, possibly. But the migrant crisis had died down a little so it may've made things harder.
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I maintain it was the 2015 net migration figures that torpedoed Cameron below the waterline.williamglenn said:
I think it was more a problem of timing. If it were held before 2015 Remain would have won easily.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 2013, the Remain campaign should've won easily. A better deal, a better campaign would've won it 60/40 at a canter.
The next release is on 25th August.0 -
You have to be kidding. I wonder what planet you live on , what stars are you talking about, seek help.MaxPB said:It feels like there is a lot less star power in this Cabinet compared to the last one. Getting rid of the Cameroons in totality may be short sighted with such a small majority to defend. Some may seek to leave the house, and in 2020 it will make the gains against the Lib Dems tough to defend.
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Pence at 1.1 / 1.15 on Betfair. Looks like a market to avoid to me.Richard_Nabavi said:Trump senior comms adviser @jasonmillerindc says he has NOT made a decision on VP yet.
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It does look as though it will be Pence, but it's not confirmed.Pulpstar said:
Pence at 1.1 / 1.15 on Betfair. Looks like a market to avoid to me.Richard_Nabavi said:Trump senior comms adviser @jasonmillerindc says he has NOT made a decision on VP yet.
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Tom Watson would try anything in his efforts to stop Corbyn winning again.Pulpstar said:
Donald Trump has joined the Labour partyThrak said:Gingrich was proving to be too dangerously liberal, Trump needs someone who will join his campaign to stoke up racial tension, promise economic pie in the sky and stop the wrong people from voting.
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I'd lay @ 1.01 based on the ambiguous tweets (and surprising source- NYT)Richard_Nabavi said:
It does look as though it will be Pence, but it's not confirmed.Pulpstar said:
Pence at 1.1 / 1.15 on Betfair. Looks like a market to avoid to me.Richard_Nabavi said:Trump senior comms adviser @jasonmillerindc says he has NOT made a decision on VP yet.
But meh @ 1.1
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It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.hamiltonace said:It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.0 -
That's only in the US though, in the EU they are flat refusing to pay anything.Ishmael_X said:
They are. Figures like $15 bn and upwards are floating around for the provision they have made for settling lawsuits.HurstLlama said:
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
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Are you eligible to vote in this contest ?Speedy said:
Tom Watson would try anything in his efforts to stop Corbyn winning again.Pulpstar said:
Donald Trump has joined the Labour partyThrak said:Gingrich was proving to be too dangerously liberal, Trump needs someone who will join his campaign to stoke up racial tension, promise economic pie in the sky and stop the wrong people from voting.
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Yes, exactly.Pong said:
I'd lay @ 1.01 based on the ambiguous tweets (and surprising source- NYT)Richard_Nabavi said:
It does look as though it will be Pence, but it's not confirmed.Pulpstar said:
Pence at 1.1 / 1.15 on Betfair. Looks like a market to avoid to me.Richard_Nabavi said:Trump senior comms adviser @jasonmillerindc says he has NOT made a decision on VP yet.
But meh @ 1.10 -
Mr. M, it would be slightly perverse if Sturgeon claimed WTO terms with the EU were unacceptable whilst explicitly accepting them for Scottish-UK [ex-Scotland] trade...0
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Well according to the polls (yes I know), support for the EU was linked with the popularity of the government that was supporting the EU.williamglenn said:
I think it was more a problem of timing. If it were held before 2015 Remain would have won easily.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 2013, the Remain campaign should've won easily. A better deal, a better campaign would've won it 60/40 at a canter.
Leave had large leads historically but for brief moments associated with GE campaigns when governments made any promises imaginable to boost their popularity, and honeymoon periods for new governments.
Since 2010 that was a short period from the summer of 2014 till the winter of 2015/16.0 -
We are going to have to accept that if there is a Sindy II ref, economic arguments are not necessarily going to resonate. Project Fear III is not the right approach.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. M, it would be slightly perverse if Sturgeon claimed WTO terms with the EU were unacceptable whilst explicitly accepting them for Scottish-UK [ex-Scotland] trade...
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It is coming to a country near you soon, Hamiltonace will be crying in his cornflakesJohn_M said:
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.hamiltonace said:It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.0 -
You have my best wishes. Will be sorry to see Scotland go, of course.malcolmg said:
It is coming to a country near you soon, Hamiltonace will be crying in his cornflakesJohn_M said:
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.hamiltonace said:It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.0 -
Is there any reason why Ruth shouldn't represent Scotland's interests in the Cabinet?FF43 said:Scotland? If it's not Mundell, it's going to be interesting. Apart from nice offices, I believe, it isn't the most rewarding job. Mundell is a nice enough man, but you suspect he is happier checking in on his constituency and turning up to vote rather than be responsible for other people's policies.
She'd need to be accountable to the House of Commons, but that can be structured by having frequent select committees and a junior to answer questions in the house0 -
John_M said:
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.hamiltonace said:It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.
It seems that the WTO solution is the most likely end point. The issue that May faces is that this solution is probably not supported by most people in the UK. I spent some time working in Korea which operated mostly on a WTO basis with the world.
The country is quite insular and 95% of people drive Korean made cars. The manufacturing and technology base are strong but service and retail are not. It would be quite a transition for the UK.
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Wonderful news that the Department of Energy and Climate Change has been abolished. Theresa has obviously been watching this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_-OxwNEFj4
Am drinking one of my finest reds to celebrate. No department has ever been such a waste of time as the DECC on the climate change part.
Why isn't the mainstream media talking about record amounts of snow in Australia, snow in July in 3 US states, snow in the Alps in July, deaths due to the cold in Peru and record cold temperatures in many parts of South America, and cooling going on in the world's oceans. Wouldn't be related to the lack of sun spots would it?!0 -
MaxPB may perceive Nicky Morgan or Matt Hancock or Oliver Letwin as stars.malcolmg said:
You have to be kidding. I wonder what planet you live on , what stars are you talking about, seek help.MaxPB said:It feels like there is a lot less star power in this Cabinet compared to the last one. Getting rid of the Cameroons in totality may be short sighted with such a small majority to defend. Some may seek to leave the house, and in 2020 it will make the gains against the Lib Dems tough to defend.
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You implied I deliberately misquoted an article when I did no such thing. I object to you defaming me. That's all.pbr2013 said:
You weren't supposed to like it. The FT article you linked to when pressed about your tenacious assertion didn't really support it, did it?FF43 said:
I don't much like your implication. I never claimed to quote from a particular article and my summary of the situation matches what was reported in the article.pbr2013 said:
The only actual quote from a US trade official there is one saying we will have to wait and see. And you misquoted him, no doubt accidently.FF43 said:
eg this: Transatlantic trade treaties are no quick fix for Brexitpbr2013 said:
Do you have a (post referendum) link for your last assertion?FF43 said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.John_M said:
I completely agree with all but your last point.FF43 said:
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.0 -
The SNP have been blindsided by Brexit as the country begins to see the impact a Scexit would have. On the other hand it solidifies their position as the only major sane party in Scotland.
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Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.0
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Evening all
Well, yet another fascinating day with the completion of the May administration. As I'm not a Conservative, I'll leave the internal party machinations to others.
It's likely the new Government will enjoy the traditional "let's give them a chance" attitude. This is a greater upheaval than 1990 which was primarily about one individual and the illusion we have a "new" Government will aid May in changing the style and tone if not necessarily the direction.
As a LEAVE voter three weeks ago and determined to see both the end of Single Market and the consequential Freedom of Movement, the early tune up of the new Government encourages. There is much hard work to be done and compromises will need to be made but we start, it seems, with a will to explore options more varied and outward-looking than had hitherto seemed likely.
Boris's role as jester to the world seems obvious - the FCO has been a largely meaningless post for years and neither Hague nor Hammond did anything to enhance that. Boris could be the one to revolutionise how we see the world and how the world sees us (and the recent devaluation won't hinder).
The "weak link" at the top table looks to be Rudd - I know she shone in a tv debate but the Home Office isn't a straightforward task and sometimes the Minister is forced to argue an unpopular case against the current flow of opinion.0 -
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
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SNP sane?hamiltonace said:The SNP have been blindsided by Brexit as the country begins to see the impact a Scexit would have. On the other hand it solidifies their position as the only major sane party in Scotland.
Interesting planet you are on.0 -
Can we have a pact not to use "if you Brexit you own it"?CarlottaVance said:
They are a dwindling band of yesterdays men.....and Cameron will be personally loyal - so I doubt they'll get up to much mischief. Quite a skilful redeployment of the talents - if you BREXIT you own it.....RochdalePioneers said:May has really surprised me - a massive recasting of government and a massive power shift away from the Cameroons. Surely they can't be happy?
It was mildly amusing the first 50 or so times (not just you) but I've now heard it a 1,000 times or more...0 -
Looking forward to seeing how ITV4 cover the chaos on Ventoux today. Feel sorry for the commissaires - think they did the right thing by awarding Froome the same time as his other GC contenders but it really was a can of worms either way. Oh dear!0
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Bitter, much?MattW said:
SNP sane?hamiltonace said:The SNP have been blindsided by Brexit as the country begins to see the impact a Scexit would have. On the other hand it solidifies their position as the only major sane party in Scotland.
Interesting planet you are on.0 -
Any hot tips for Hungary the weekend after next @Morris_Dancer? I wish Mercedes would bring someone in better than Rosberg to challenge Lewis such as Alonso - obviously never going to happen but Rosberg has got a real inferiority complex as Austria showed which historically has been his best track relative to Lewis.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
Lewis can get away with his jetset lifestyle and still know that he is just better than Rosberg. I'd like to see him really challenged against Alonso or Verstappen where he couldn't get away with such liberties. Here's hoping!0 -
Mr. Charles, the sooner we leave, the sooner the tedious portmanteau can be consigned to the dustbin of history.
Mr. Hunchman, it'll be interesting to see how things go.0 -
Jan Smuts was a cabinet minister 1917-1919 despite not being a member of either house or even technically a British subject.FF43 said:
That would be sensible.Is it constitutional and can you be in the cabinet if you are not a member of (the Westminster) parliament?TheWhiteRabbit said:It's still 13/14 men and 8 women, by my count.
Ruth for the Scottish Office?!
The circumstances were unusual, but it is a sort of precedent.0 -
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.hunchman said:
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
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There are hardly any former public schoolboys in the cabinet except the dangerous one who has been appointed straight to Foreign Secretary without any experience in government, in shadowing government, or in foreign affairs. A truly amazingly bad pick, of a kind that has been avoided for 150 years. London may have a population of 9 million, but it's still just a city and its mayor is only a mayor.
If Boris doesn't renounce his US citizenship right now, what's his reason?
Regarding Mike Pence as Donald Trump's running mate, it was looking like him or Newt Gingrich, but the reporting of the leak is odd. This piece in the Guardian is a mishmash of clips. Trump is a highly intelligent man who will choose a running mate who can be played on the board in a very simple and easy to explain orientation to amplify the ticket's message. Unfortunately Ben Jacobs and Alan Yuhas haven't worked out what that will be if he chooses Pence.
More pollsters seem to be offering a Gary Johnson (Libertarian) option than a Jill Stein (Green) one, for some reason. Stein won't be on the ballot in all states, but she could still be a major factor and some polls suggest that she will win votes from a significant proportion of registered Democrats who voted for Bernie Sanders in the primaries. She may well win a bigger share of the popular vote than Johnson - probably bigger than Ralph Nader won on a Green ticket in 2000, especially if Rupert Murdoch helps out his favoured candidate Donald Trump by giving her some airspace.
Percentages of the popular vote for the Libertarian and Green candidates in the last four elections:
..............Lib...............Grn
2000 0.36% 2.74%
2004 0.32% 0.10%
2008 0.40% 0.12%
2012 0.99% 0.36%
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Sky are reporting David Mundell at Scottish Office on their ticker. Is that not legit?ydoethur said:
Jan Smuts was a cabinet minister 1917-1919 despite not being a member of either house or even technically a British subject.FF43 said:
That would be sensible.Is it constitutional and can you be in the cabinet if you are not a member of (the Westminster) parliament?TheWhiteRabbit said:It's still 13/14 men and 8 women, by my count.
Ruth for the Scottish Office?!
The circumstances were unusual, but it is a sort of precedent.
Also, when did Charlie Falconer resign?0 -
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!Pulpstar said:
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.hunchman said:
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.0 -
@NeilDotObrien
Blimey. The new cabinet has highest % of state educated ministers since Atlee in 1945, says the Sutton Trust0 -
Mr. Dromedary, welcome to pb.com.0
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I've recorded this for posterity in my profile. I'm quietly confident I'll be righthunchman said:
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!Pulpstar said:
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.hunchman said:
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out. 0 -
Good idea. Would also keep her busy - less time for her Roy 'Chubby' Brown tribute act.Charles said:
Is there any reason why Ruth shouldn't represent Scotland's interests in the Cabinet?FF43 said:Scotland? If it's not Mundell, it's going to be interesting. Apart from nice offices, I believe, it isn't the most rewarding job. Mundell is a nice enough man, but you suspect he is happier checking in on his constituency and turning up to vote rather than be responsible for other people's policies.
She'd need to be accountable to the House of Commons, but that can be structured by having frequent select committees and a junior to answer questions in the house0 -
Hunchman mate we have been over this many times before. No one on here wants to cover up anything. But neither do they want to see this site lost because you can't understand the basic rules of libel.hunchman said:
As has already been suggested if you are that concerned about this then set up your own site and put all your claims on there. We will happily come and read it and see what you have to say and you are putting all the risk on yourself rather than hiding behind a pseudonym and expecting Mike to take all the heat. It is not the actions of a gentleman.0 -
Good. I'll look forward to you posting it in 2020 even - it will already be noticeably cooler by then.Pulpstar said:
I've recorded this for posterity in my profile. I'm quietly confident I'll be righthunchman said:
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!Pulpstar said:
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.hunchman said:
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.0 -
Naming an individual as you have done without evidence or proof is libel.hunchman said:0 -
'Tele hack agrees with SNP' shock.
'Parliament's chummy back-slapping farewell for David Cameron is Westminster at its worst
..Because "the House uniting to pay tribute" is actually everything that's wrong with politics, everything that makes people hate their rulers and makes them vote to kick them as hard as possible, or not vote at all because they're all the same, a cosy club of smug so-and-sos who look after their own and sod the rest of us.'
http://tinyurl.com/zeuns3v0 -
@MSLJeconomist: .@BorisJohnson booed after finishing speech at #BastilleDay party. Elegant guests also murmuring "liar" #reshuffle https://t.co/8AbL1svL0W0
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Sindy II, is a benefit, not a risk. We are in the process of clearing away lots of EU, clutter, why hang on to some more we can well do without?John_M said:
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.hamiltonace said:It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.0 -
Watching his voxpop outside the FO just now, two things struck me:Dromedary said:There are hardly any former public schoolboys in the cabinet except the dangerous one who has been appointed straight to Foreign Secretary without any experience in government, in shadowing government, or in foreign affairs. A truly amazingly bad pick, of a kind that has been avoided for 150 years. London may have a population of 9 million, but it's still just a city and its mayor is only a mayor.
If Boris doesn't renounce his US citizenship right now, what's his reason?
1) he remains a clown - didn't even know the name of the French Foreign Sec; and
2) his mannerisms - pauses, repititions, etc - are troublingly similar to Eddie Izzard's.0 -
The more you look at this appointment, the more of a delicious prison it looks for our Mr Johnson. Not only is he lying in the bed he did more than anyone to make, but he is going to spend his days hearing first hand what the world thinks.Scott_P said:@MSLJeconomist: .@BorisJohnson booed after finishing speech at #BastilleDay party. Elegant guests also murmuring "liar" #reshuffle https://t.co/8AbL1svL0W
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Hunchman. Listen very carefully:hunchman said:
Good. I'll look forward to you posting it in 2020 even - it will already be noticeably cooler by then.Pulpstar said:
I've recorded this for posterity in my profile. I'm quietly confident I'll be righthunchman said:
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!Pulpstar said:
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.hunchman said:
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.
The moon flies at noon, while the fish sleep in Dover.
The moon flies at noon, while the fish sleep in Dover.-1 -
It's his job to clearout the diplomats that have gone native and consider themselves European above all else. We need diplomats who truly put the national interest first and that should include avoiding anything that relinquishes our new found Independence. A good pick.IanB2 said:
The more you look at this appointment, the more of a delicious prison it looks for our Mr Johnson. Not only is he lying in the bed he did more than anyone to make, but he is going to spend his days hearing first hand what the world thinks.Scott_P said:@MSLJeconomist: .@BorisJohnson booed after finishing speech at #BastilleDay party. Elegant guests also murmuring "liar" #reshuffle https://t.co/8AbL1svL0W
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Would be okay if there wasn't a dangerous situation to resolve.IanB2 said:
The more you look at this appointment, the more of a delicious prison it looks for our Mr Johnson. Not only is he lying in the bed he did more than anyone to make, but he is going to spend his days hearing first hand what the world thinks.Scott_P said:@MSLJeconomist: .@BorisJohnson booed after finishing speech at #BastilleDay party. Elegant guests also murmuring "liar" #reshuffle https://t.co/8AbL1svL0W
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Steven Woolfe's UKIP leadership pitch seems to be: Labour - We're coming for you
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/14/steven-woolfe-i-am-proof-the-british-dream-is-real-and-thats-why/0 -
Michigan - Gravis
Clinton 48 .. Trump 41
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/MIGravisPoll.pdf
Iowa - Gravis
Clinton 42 .. Trump 40
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/IOGravispoll.pdf0 -
Shirley exactly the right pitch.GIN1138 said:Steven Woolfe's UKIP leadership pitch seems to be: Labour - We're coming for you
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/14/steven-woolfe-i-am-proof-the-british-dream-is-real-and-thats-why/0 -
I think we all noticed that he's not willing to put his money where his mouth is.Pulpstar said:
I've recorded this for posterity in my profile. I'm quietly confident I'll be righthunchman said:
Pulpstar - that's offering me free money! I really don't want to empty your pockets. I'm well enough off already thankyou. Plus who's saying that either of us will be around in 14 years time!Pulpstar said:
£100 at Evens that 2030 is warmer than 2015.hunchman said:
People like John Casey in the US who has forecast the rapid decline in sunspots has been one of the few who has been right. Its going to get seriously cold going into the grand solar minimum around 2030. And the global warmist apologists are starting to get truly desperate in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary ranging from trying to suppress reporting of cold weather around the world and flagrantly manipulating temperature data. It really is a sight to behold just how desperate they've become to keep those cheques flowing from governments worldwide.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hunchman, that does sound unexpectedly frigid.
I urge you to watch the Adapt 2030 YouTube channel - David Du Byne is a real star. And then come back to me with rescinding your offer. You're cleverer than to believe all the nonsense that the global warmist apologists are putting out.0 -
@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.0
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If only Cathy Ashton was here to save us.Jonathan said:
Would be okay if there wasn't a dangerous situation to resolve.IanB2 said:
The more you look at this appointment, the more of a delicious prison it looks for our Mr Johnson. Not only is he lying in the bed he did more than anyone to make, but he is going to spend his days hearing first hand what the world thinks.Scott_P said:@MSLJeconomist: .@BorisJohnson booed after finishing speech at #BastilleDay party. Elegant guests also murmuring "liar" #reshuffle https://t.co/8AbL1svL0W
0 -
Miserable wankersTheuniondivvie said:'Tele hack agrees with SNP' shock.
'Parliament's chummy back-slapping farewell for David Cameron is Westminster at its worst
..Because "the House uniting to pay tribute" is actually everything that's wrong with politics, everything that makes people hate their rulers and makes them vote to kick them as hard as possible, or not vote at all because they're all the same, a cosy club of smug so-and-sos who look after their own and sod the rest of us.'
http://tinyurl.com/zeuns3v0 -
Theresa will be intimately involved in Brexit as well because if Brexit fails the whole government (Mrs May included) will carry the can.Scott_P said:@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
0 -
Yep exactly the right pitch as shown by Owen Smith's comments regarding a second referendum....pbr2013 said:
Shirley exactly the right pitch.GIN1138 said:Steven Woolfe's UKIP leadership pitch seems to be: Labour - We're coming for you
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/14/steven-woolfe-i-am-proof-the-british-dream-is-real-and-thats-why/
0 -
I'm a little sad we couldn't have waited to hold the referendum on bastille day. it was conveniently on a thursday this year.Scott_P said:@MSLJeconomist: .@BorisJohnson booed after finishing speech at #BastilleDay party. Elegant guests also murmuring "liar" #reshuffle https://t.co/8AbL1svL0W
0 -
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.Scott_P said:@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".0 -
But she does have as the first line(s) of defence three people she can sack, to distance herself from the situation (and remind people it was not of her making).John_M said:
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.Scott_P said:@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
And she is meanwhile less vulnerable to leavers (other than possibly Farage) attacking her for not implementing Brexit in the 'right' way.0 -
Off Topic: Trump's VP pick, never heard of him before, Mike Pence. He's gone for an old white guy - so played it safe.
Does this take pressure off of Clinton to pick a minority VP candidate? I think with Bernie's endorsement she has no need for Warren as VP so I don't expect an uberprogessive type. Are there any other suitable female candidates? Trump's weakness seems to be his misogyny, if Clinton can draw enough women away, to go with the nailed on black and latino votes, she won't need to worry about losing the WWC vote. And I think the WWC will break very heavily for Trump, more so than we expect (Brexit is a good indicator of that).0 -
Personally, I think the Boris appointment is not because of some Machiavellian scheme that he'll fuck up and ruin his reputation, but more because him being there allows May to essentially take over the running of foreign affairs herself whenever she feels like it. Boris is notoriously lazy, and thus probably wouldn't object too much to May's team micromanaging everything, as long as it reduced his own workload; on the other hand, if she put a workaholic in the Foreign Office instead, they would probably be much more "territorial" and not let May take over the decision-making.John_M said:
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.Scott_P said:@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".0 -
0
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Incidentally, this Owen Jones article is a good reflection of how I feel about the Labour leadership contest:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/14/labour-right-shambles-jeremy-corbyn-questions-answer
Summary, Corbyn is shite; but the 'moderates' still have a hell of a lot of work to do to prove they would be any better.0 -
I think it's a simple signal to Tory voters, but you may well be right. I just don't think we should forget that most Tories voted for Brexit.IanB2 said:
But she does have as the first line(s) of defence three people she can sack, to distance herself from the situation (and remind people it was not of her making).John_M said:
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.Scott_P said:@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
And she is meanwhile less vulnerable to leavers (other than possibly Farage) attacking her for not implementing Brexit in the 'right' way.
In terms of Boris, as we've said before, the FCO has been neutered.
European relations will primarily be defined by May (as part of the Council) and Davies (at the working level). Trade is Fox. Boris will be glad handing people and being nice to the Yanks. It's not the job it used to be.0 -
No, but as far as the voters are concerned the government survives or falls on the success of Brexit.Scott_P said:
That's not how cabinet Government works.GIN1138 said:Theresa will be intimately involved in Brexit as well because if Brexit fails the whole government (Mrs May included) will carry the can.
if the Minister for X screws up, the PM doesn't resign (normally)
It's not going to a matter that Brext can be compartmentalized to Boris, Davis and Fox and everyone else can get on with the actual government. Brexit IS this government.
Or put another way, if your consoling yourself that Theresa isn't really serious about Brexit, that she's going to let Boris screw up and then the whole thing will be forgotten about in a couple of years... Think again.0 -
We could have had two referendums. The first on 4 July and the second on 14th!paulyork64 said:
I'm a little sad we couldn't have waited to hold the referendum on bastille day. it was conveniently on a thursday this year.Scott_P said:@MSLJeconomist: .@BorisJohnson booed after finishing speech at #BastilleDay party. Elegant guests also murmuring "liar" #reshuffle https://t.co/8AbL1svL0W
0 -
Ms May has committed to taking on Brexit and making it work.John_M said:
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.Scott_P said:@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
Also, part of the jibes aimed at the leading Leavers is that they are a bit of a rag-tag-and-bobtail, meaning that they were never really coherent group in the way that a government is. All the more credit to them for standing out against the political consensus.
That very ad-hoc group encouraged millions of people to have their say. Now the people have spoken, it is entirely appropriate that the (new) government should pick up the result and make it work.0 -
She is very micro-managing although of course hitherto hasn't had a whole government to micro-manage, just her department.Danny565 said:
Personally, I think the Boris appointment is not because of some Machiavellian scheme that he'll fuck up and ruin his reputation, but more because him being there allows May to essentially take over the running of foreign affairs herself whenever she feels like it. Boris is notoriously lazy, and thus probably wouldn't object too much to May's team micromanaging everything, as long as it reduced his own workload; on the other hand, if she put a workaholic in the Foreign Office instead, they would probably be much more "territorial" and not let May take over the decision-making.John_M said:
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.Scott_P said:@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
Will be interesting to see if she has the energy and bandwidth to micro-manage it all now.
Seems unlikely but is an unknown.0 -
I agree with that.John_M said:
I think it's a simple signal to (Tory) voters,IanB2 said:
But she does have as the first line(s) of defence three people she can sack, to distance herself from the situation (and remind people it was not of her making).John_M said:
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.Scott_P said:@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
And she is meanwhile less vulnerable to leavers (other than possibly Farage) attacking her for not implementing Brexit in the 'right' way.
I was a Leave supporter, and I was a little worried that Ms May was going to find a pretext to ignore/overturn the referendum. It's reassuring to see three Leave MPs in key EU roles.
0 -
Jack, what do the current emanations from the ARSE say about your opposite position from Rod on the POTUS?JackW said:Colorado - Gravis
Clinton 43 .. Trump 41
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/COGravispoll.pdf0 -
I'm tickled by the URL. The guardian's urls are a bit more succinct than those of the Daily Mail.Danny565 said:Incidentally, this Owen Jones article is a good reflection of how I feel about the Labour leadership contest:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/14/labour-right-shambles-jeremy-corbyn-questions-answer
Summary, Corbyn is shite; but the 'moderates' still have a hell of a lot of work to do to prove they would be any better.0 -
Can I have some of what your smoking?hamiltonace said:It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
1 All the evidence so far is that its the EU in a hurry
2 The EU is suffering almost as much as the UK right now
3. LDs as largest party - who opened up your strait jacket????0 -
McKinsey perform a Wollaston-style volte face.
http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/poorer-than-their-parents-a-new-perspective-on-income-inequality0 -
My preference would be to suggest to the EU that the UK does a cut and paste of the new Canadian deal with something on grandfathering the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK and visa versa for Brits in EU country. If they don't accept that, just fall back on WTO rules, walk away from the EU immediately, then wait a few years until the German's realize that tariffs on their car exports are helping to fund the UK exchequer, to negotiate something even better.saddened said:
Sindy II, is a benefit, not a risk. We are in the process of clearing away lots of EU, clutter, why hang on to some more we can well do without?John_M said:
It's early, but by signalling withdrawal from the Single Market, the tension is removed. If the EU stonewall, we will simply move to WTO MFN status. That's not as big an issue as it might sound.hamiltonace said:It is hard to imagine the stress that Ms May must be under at the moment. She has a relatively new team who are yet to learn their briefs, she faces a recession and there are major negotiations required with foreign countries. One of her core plans is Brexit which is not universally supported and faces opposition from key regions and lobby groups.
May has time pressures but the Europeans have no time pressure. They can sit around and discuss until the cows come home. How will May respond to stonewalling?
I just can't see the easy win that will cement her position but I can see multiple banana skins. I took my advice and put a small bet on Lib Dens being the largest party at the next general election and this is as a Scottish Tory.
The risk of that approach is Sindy II.0 -
Quite. I hate to think of what sort of organisations some of the posters on here work for and I hope none of them are in positions of leadership because they don't seem to understand it.John_M said:
Remain-leaning commentators are treating this as if it's a bunch of people cleaning up after a party.Scott_P said:@jameskirkup: Reshuffle in sum: Leavers get to do Brexit & deal with its consequences. One Nation Remainers get to do modernisation without Cameron.
May will live and die by Brexit in 2020. She can't just point at members of her own cabinet and say "They fucked it up, vote for me anway".
Leadership 101, Lesson 1: You can delegate authority but not responsibility.
0 -
I'm not aware that Rod has posted a full projection as yet. I also may not be able to establish an ARSE4US this cycle. We'll see.pbr2013 said:Jack, what do the current emanations from the arse say about your opposite position from Rod on the POTUS?
However presently my broad projection is a Clinton win in the Electoral College 341/197
http://www.270towin.com/
0
