politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s new government, we’re nearly there
Comments
-
Only by the paranoid.AnneJGP said:
That's an amusing line, but wouldn't it have been seen as trying to negate the referendum outcome if Ms May had appointed Remain-leaning people?CarlottaVance said:
They are a dwindling band of yesterdays men.....and Cameron will be personally loyal - so I doubt they'll get up to much mischief. Quite a skilful redeployment of the talents - if you BREXIT you own it.....RochdalePioneers said:May has really surprised me - a massive recasting of government and a massive power shift away from the Cameroons. Surely they can't be happy?
0 -
Apparently as ex-EFTA members we can rejoin EFTA if we pay the £25 rejoining fee (used to be just £3) but we have to look sharp. EFTA rules state they have to receive the money between 18th and 20th July.
I think this is right.0 -
Depends what you want it to correlate to.Philip_Thompson said:
So you'd expect roughly 10 ex public school not 4.HYUFD said:
The Tory share ex public school is now about 50% and the Commons about 20 to 30%Philip_Thompson said:
I suspect the Commons let alone the Tory share of it is not 7% so that's not surely the right figure to use.HYUFD said:
Fallon, Hunt, Johnson, Rudd all ex public school and a higher percentage of the Cabinet than the 7% nationallyPhilip_Thompson said:Is it truly egalitarian if there are hardly any former public schoolboys and schoolgirls there? You'd think if it was truly egalitarian, based on merit that there would be some. Penalising people for their parents choices is not egalitarian.
0 -
"We are all plebs now!"surbiton said:This is beginning to look like a coup at the top of the Conservative Party. The plebs are in charge now. Only the bumbling idiot is the token rep.
0 -
I think this assumes anyone will know if Brexit is a success or failure.david_kendrick1 said:
Exactly right. Cyclefree is a shrewdie.Cyclefree said:
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will own this, regardless of whether the mess was created by the 3 Brexiteers. She's in charge now. So she had better make it clear to them what vision of Brexit she has and make sure they do their best to get it. And the Merkels of this world are going to want to deal with the organ grinder, not the monkeys - whatever their titles.jonny83 said:Some interesting choices and perhaps some questionable ones as well. She has the power and the right to choose who she wants and she is clearly stamping her authority in line with her vision for the future. Have to see how it plays out.
The Boris/Fox/Davis triumvirate for me has po just say well I gave your lot the power to sort it out. But on the other hand if it doesn't work out she could still take damage from it, people will question her judgement.
[Snipped]
I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.
I'd go a step further.
The three Brexiteers will be all but irrelevant in the negotiations on Brexit. Their main significance will be the influence they have on their civil servants.
On the main issue of the day---Brexit---the PM does not have the luxury of being able to delegate the job. It is squarely in her lap, and she'll stand or fall on the results. She will have to do it herself.
Estimates (ok let's leave out Patrick Minford's) put the likely diminution of aggregate and per capita GDP by 2030 of anywhere between 1.5-6% and 0.8-1% respectively.
No one is going to be up in arms at the fact that the country is 4% poorer than it might otherwise have been, and by 2020 almost nothing will be known.
The damage Brexit will cause will be its opportunity cost. £100m not being invested here, £100m in extra costs for business there.
Nothing you can drop on your foot so I think May and the Gruesome Threesome are pretty much in the clear.0 -
Does this hold the whole thing up, or will they plough on and hope that his Honour doesn't block the whole caboodle?kle4 said:
The courts need to catch up, politics now moves way too fast for us to wait that long!rottenborough said:Popcorntastic:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 27m27 minutes ago
Mike Foster's legal action against Labour NEC decision that Corbyn automatically on ballot paper will be heard High Court last week in July0 -
I honestly don't see Osborne, Gove, Letwin, Morgan et al causing any trouble on the backbenches. On what are they going to rebel if May continues with a broad based, inclusive one-nation govt, which I have little doubt she will?0
-
"The three Brexiteers will be all but irrelevant in the negotiations on Brexit. Their main significance will be the influence they have on their civil servants."
Do not underestimate the importance of doing just that. A large number of civil servants, especially at the FCO, have just had the rug of their world pulled out from beneath them and will be struggling to cope with the new requirements. Those same civil servants will be doing a lot of the detail and writing the position papers.
To get a good deal for the UK those civil servants will need close guidance and support.0 -
She's no fool. My guess is she's thought of that and she doesn't care. There are various reasons for this, but I'd guess the most likely is because she's already decided there will be another election before long.felix said:
I think Osborne will support the government to which he'll eventually return - hopefully after a successful Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Cocque, that may be an error by May.
If she'd peeled off Osborne's lieutenants, he'd be not quite alone on the backbenches, but diminished. As it is, he and his followers (or ex-followers) far exceed the Conservative majority. It's possible she'll be fine. It's possible she's made the Morsi Mistake.0 -
-
LOL only on PB could I see people concerned that there are not enough public school boys/girls in the cabinet....
I wonder what Andrew Mitchell thinks of 'the rise of the plebs'....surbiton said:This is beginning to look like a coup at the top of the Conservative Party. The plebs are in charge now. Only the bumbling idiot is the token rep.
0 -
So, you're holding on for the next honours list now? LOLJohnO said:I honestly don't see Osborne, Gove, Letwin, Morgan et al causing any trouble on the backbenches. On what are they going to rebel if May continues with a broad based, inclusive one-nation govt, which I have little doubt she will?
0 -
...."Prime Minister, Where do you want me?"Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
I'd be the 21 Century Vicar of Bray (if I weren't a Papist).GeoffM said:
So, you're holding on for the next honours list now? LOLJohnO said:I honestly don't see Osborne, Gove, Letwin, Morgan et al causing any trouble on the backbenches. On what are they going to rebel if May continues with a broad based, inclusive one-nation govt, which I have little doubt she will?
0 -
Sensibly covering all the bases, or maybe he's hoping for two peerages....GeoffM said:
So, you're holding on for the next honours list now? LOLJohnO said:I honestly don't see Osborne, Gove, Letwin, Morgan et al causing any trouble on the backbenches. On what are they going to rebel if May continues with a broad based, inclusive one-nation govt, which I have little doubt she will?
0 -
Last 10 overs , 53 runs. Moeen going for 40 off 6 overs. Cook has to keep him on , otherwise he could miss the next test due to over rate.TGOHF said:
Cook thinks his spinner is mince (rightly) and hence its been all pace - one of which is Broad who is the worst culprit for over rate.Pulpstar said:Is it me or is the England over rate utterly farcical ?
0 -
Nothing for Rory Stewart so far. Shame. I do hope he gets a big job in FCO.0
-
Iain Martin published this 23 hours ago before the full extent of the changes were known:
Six months ago David Cameron was dominant. He had saved the Union and won an election, returning the Tory party to a majority position.
George Osborne readied himself for the succession. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson worked to overtake Osborne. The great reformer Michael Gove weighed his options ahead of the referendum. Other ministers, MPs, chums and advisers who had hitched their wagons to the Cameron/Osborne project bustled around enjoying power or proximity to power.
Underneath them, a whole social network – with its own manners, assumptions and habits – whirred away in London and nice parts of the home counties at weekends.
It is all turned to dust now....... The group that only recently dominated British politics is now history.
http://reaction.life/mays-rise-seals-incredible-destruction-entire-generation-top-tories/0 -
Better change his wiki education entry to Slough Comprehensive.rottenborough said:Nothing for Rory Stewart so far. Shame. I do hope he gets a big job in FCO.
0 -
0
-
Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.0
-
I agree. I shall be very interested to see how the experience element works out.John_M said:
Amusing? It doesn't even scan. People are still grieving I suppose.AnneJGP said:
That's an amusing line, but wouldn't it have been seen as trying to negate the referendum outcome if Ms May had appointed Remain-leaning people?CarlottaVance said:
They are a dwindling band of yesterdays men.....and Cameron will be personally loyal - so I doubt they'll get up to much mischief. Quite a skilful redeployment of the talents - if you BREXIT you own it.....RochdalePioneers said:May has really surprised me - a massive recasting of government and a massive power shift away from the Cameroons. Surely they can't be happy?
I'm with @Topping in that the glam factor is reduced (modulo Boris). This is a cabinet full of experience. I don't really care who voted Remain/Leave. They all have a lot to do. Its execution that matters. I can't see May being as forgiving as Cameron, so hopefully that will concentrate minds.
It's not just experience of how politics works, it's the length of time they've had to watch effects, see things come round for the nth time, think through how they'd tackle things, and so on.0 -
Is Eddie 4 Eagle?Pulpstar said:It's the gift that'll never stop giving:
0 -
Boris Johnsongrabcocque said:
Imagine a member of the 2015 intake suddenly being given a government job.Richard_Nabavi said:
From the 2015ers, Chris Philp, perhaps?JohnO said:But more fun (and insights) for the second and third tier of junior Ministers. Could any of last year's intake get their first mits around the greasy pole? Or the overlooked from 2010?
PREPOSTEROUS.
MP 2001-2008
Mayor of London 2008-2016
Foreign Secretary 2016-
Hardly a newbie.0 -
Wait, I thought being in the EU was good for the environment?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
I'm with @Cyclefree. May cannot distance herself from Brexit via cabinet composition. That's not a valid firebreak. She will have to lead on it, she will have to own it.CarlottaVance said:0 -
This is getting ridiculous. What if there's another battle of Waterloo?JohnO said:
Better change his wiki education entry to Slough Comprehensive.rottenborough said:Nothing for Rory Stewart so far. Shame. I do hope he gets a big job in FCO.
0 -
The political risks come when demands or predictions made are very publicly not met. There is absolutely no doubt there will be a deal.TOPPING said:
I think this assumes anyone will know if Brexit is a success or failure.david_kendrick1 said:
[Snipped]Cyclefree said:
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will own this, regardless of whether the mess was created by the 3 Brexiteers. She's in charge now. So she had better make it clear to them what vision of Brexit she has and make sure they do their best to get it. And the Merkels of this world are going to want to deal with the organ grinder, not the monkeys - whatever their titles.jonny83 said:
[Snipped]
I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.
Estimates (ok let's leave out Patrick Minford's) put the likely diminution of aggregate and per capita GDP by 2030 of anywhere between 1.5-6% and 0.8-1% respectively.
No one is going to be up in arms at the fact that the country is 4% poorer than it might otherwise have been, and by 2020 almost nothing will be known.
The damage Brexit will cause will be its opportunity cost. £100m not being invested here, £100m in extra costs for business there.
Nothing you can drop on your foot so I think May and the Gruesome Threesome are pretty much in the clear.
But if a politician says, as David Davis has just done, "Of course Germany et al will be rational and sign up to full access to the SM with no FOM because they want to sell us lots of cars" and then Merkel turns round and says, "No way!". It subsequently turns out completely different from what was said, so the government loses a lot of credibility. Ditto if a high profile employers says, "We are off to Holland because they are in the EU, but Britain isn't" Ditto, a high profile FTA gets canned because the other country decides to concentrate on its relations with the EU instead.0 -
Misbah-ul-Haq gets a 100 at Lords at the age of 42.0
-
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)0 -
Near perfect chancellor sacked from Cabinetsurbiton said:
And Richard "the Sage" Nabavi.Sunil_Prasannan said:
TSE won't be happy with thatgrabcocque said:RIP Osborne. RIP Osborne's inner circle. RIP Osborneism. RIP anyone who'd ever even look at George Osborne.
Is there a minister for folding towels?0 -
Pence now at 1/12 on BF for GOP veep.0
-
I agree - but she's bought herself a degree of insurance from back bench sniping in the HoC.John_M said:
I'm with @Cyclefree. May cannot distance herself from Brexit via cabinet composition. That's not a valid firebreak. She will have to lead on it, she will have to own it.CarlottaVance said:
If BREXIT is a disaster the whole government goes down....what will Mrs Bone say?0 -
Luckily, Southern don't serve Waterloorottenborough said:
This is getting ridiculous. What if there's another battle of Waterloo?JohnO said:
Better change his wiki education entry to Slough Comprehensive.rottenborough said:Nothing for Rory Stewart so far. Shame. I do hope he gets a big job in FCO.
0 -
I completely agree with all but your last point.FF43 said:
The political risks come when demands or predictions made are very publicly not met. There is absolutely no doubt there will be a deal.TOPPING said:
I think this assumes anyone will know if Brexit is a success or failure.david_kendrick1 said:
[Snipped]Cyclefree said:
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will own this, regardless of whether the mess was created by the 3 Brexiteers. She's in charge now. So she had better make it clear to them what vision of Brexit she has and make sure they do their best to get it. And the Merkels of this world are going to want to deal with the organ grinder, not the monkeys - whatever their titles.jonny83 said:
[Snipped]
I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.
Estimates (ok let's leave out Patrick Minford's) put the likely diminution of aggregate and per capita GDP by 2030 of anywhere between 1.5-6% and 0.8-1% respectively.
Nothing you can drop on your foot so I think May and the Gruesome Threesome are pretty much in the clear.
But if a politician says, as David Davis has just done, "Of course Germany et al will be rational and sign up to full access to the SM with no FOM because they want to sell us lots of cars" and then Merkel turns round and says, "No way!". It subsequently turns out completely different from what was said, so the government loses a lot of credibility. Ditto if a high profile employers says, "We are off to Holland because they are in the EU, but Britain isn't" Ditto, a high profile FTA gets canned because the other country decides to concentrate on its relations with the EU instead.
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc0 -
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)0 -
You didn't need the "4"williamglenn said:
Is Eddie 4 Eagle?Pulpstar said:It's the gift that'll never stop giving:
0 -
No bar:JohnO said:
I'd be the 21 Century Vicar of Bray (if I weren't a Papist).GeoffM said:
So, you're holding on for the next honours list now? LOLJohnO said:I honestly don't see Osborne, Gove, Letwin, Morgan et al causing any trouble on the backbenches. On what are they going to rebel if May continues with a broad based, inclusive one-nation govt, which I have little doubt she will?
When Royal James possest the crown,
And popery grew in fashion;
The Penal Law I shouted down,
And read the Declaration:
The Church of Rome I found would fit
Full well my Constitution,
And I had been a Jesuit
But for the Revolution.0 -
Naught but pro-REMAIN propaganda!williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
Oh hang on... 0 -
That's one way of putting it.HurstLlama said:"The three Brexiteers will be all but irrelevant in the negotiations on Brexit. Their main significance will be the influence they have on their civil servants."
Do not underestimate the importance of doing just that. A large number of civil servants, especially at the FCO, have just had the rug of their world pulled out from beneath them and will be struggling to cope with the new requirements. Those same civil servants will be doing a lot of the detail and writing the position papers.
To get a good deal for the UK those civil servants will need close guidance and support.0 -
Yes perhaps. But if it is WTO (more likely with Davis in charge and Brexiteers abundant in cabinet) then the line will be "you see - we do have access to the SM" and no one apart from a few will know or care about the differences between "access" and "part of". No one cared for sure during the campaign.FF43 said:
The political risks come when demands or predictions made are very publicly not met. There is absolutely no doubt there will be a deal.TOPPING said:
I think this assumes anyone will know if Brexit is a success or failure.david_kendrick1 said:
[Snipped]Cyclefree said:
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will ownjonny83 said:
[Snipped]
I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.
Estimates (ok let's leave out Patrick Minford's) put the likely diminution of aggregate and per capita GDP by 2030 of anywhere between 1.5-6% and 0.8-1% respectively.
No one is going to be up in arms at the fact that the country is 4% poorer than it might otherwise have been, and by 2020 almost nothing will be known.
The damage Brexit will cause will be its opportunity cost. £100m not being invested here, £100m in extra costs for business there.
Nothing you can drop on your foot so I think May and the Gruesome Threesome are pretty much in the clear.
But if a politician says, as David Davis has just done, "Of course Germany et al will be rational and sign up to full access to the SM with no FOM because they want to sell us lots of cars" and then Merkel turns round and says, "No way!". It subsequently turns out completely different from what was said, so the government loses a lot of credibility. Ditto if a high profile employers says, "We are off to Holland because they are in the EU, but Britain isn't" Ditto, a high profile FTA gets canned because the other country decides to concentrate on its relations with the EU instead.
So I am still of the opinion that the country will be poorer than it otherwise would have been but imperceptibly so.
Then again, I am certainly looking forward to the zero-rating of VAT on home energy supplies.0 -
"Be gentle, Theresa! That's not the "position" I was interested in!"JohnO said:
...."Prime Minister, Where do you want me?"Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Lol, not at all. Its because East African Asians are business owners and wanr lower taxes.surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)0 -
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
Will anyone care trumppence?rottenborough said:Pence now at 1/12 on BF for GOP veep.
0 -
The hopeful man standing for the hopeless party.Pulpstar said:It's the gift that'll never stop giving:
https://twitter.com/eddiefornec/status/7536208285840424960 -
I think the new government looks like a serious government for serious times.
Very pleased with Tezza so far.0 -
On the whole, I think that the Cameroons did well in government, esp in the Coalition. But somehow the tears just won't come. They brought it on themselves, believing their own propaganda.CarlottaVance said:Iain Martin published this 23 hours ago before the full extent of the changes were known:
Six months ago David Cameron was dominant. He had saved the Union and won an election, returning the Tory party to a majority position.
George Osborne readied himself for the succession. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson worked to overtake Osborne. The great reformer Michael Gove weighed his options ahead of the referendum. Other ministers, MPs, chums and advisers who had hitched their wagons to the Cameron/Osborne project bustled around enjoying power or proximity to power.
Underneath them, a whole social network – with its own manners, assumptions and habits – whirred away in London and nice parts of the home counties at weekends.
It is all turned to dust now....... The group that only recently dominated British politics is now history.
http://reaction.life/mays-rise-seals-incredible-destruction-entire-generation-top-tories/0 -
Surbiton is just clueless because he is a Labourite identity politics type.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
He is clueless in many more ways than that.MaxPB said:
Surbiton is just clueless because he is a Labourite identity politics type.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
Was this information held back until after the referendum ?RobD said:
Wait, I thought being in the EU was good for the environment?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
TSEs final comment is stupid. Egalitarians treat everyone equal regardless of what school their parents sent them to.0
-
Cameron's finest hour was undoubtedly forming the coalition government then running it smoothly for 5 years - no mean feat. He's been sloppy, slapdash & lazy since winning the majority - three adjectives no one has ever applied to May......pbr2013 said:
On the whole, I think that the Cameroons did well in government, esp in the Coalition. But somehow the tears just won't come. They brought it on themselves, believing their own propaganda.CarlottaVance said:Iain Martin published this 23 hours ago before the full extent of the changes were known:
Six months ago David Cameron was dominant. He had saved the Union and won an election, returning the Tory party to a majority position.
George Osborne readied himself for the succession. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson worked to overtake Osborne. The great reformer Michael Gove weighed his options ahead of the referendum. Other ministers, MPs, chums and advisers who had hitched their wagons to the Cameron/Osborne project bustled around enjoying power or proximity to power.
Underneath them, a whole social network – with its own manners, assumptions and habits – whirred away in London and nice parts of the home counties at weekends.
It is all turned to dust now....... The group that only recently dominated British politics is now history.
http://reaction.life/mays-rise-seals-incredible-destruction-entire-generation-top-tories/0 -
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.John_M said:
I completely agree with all but your last point.FF43 said:
The political risks come when demands or predictions made are very publicly not met. There is absolutely no doubt there will be a deal.TOPPING said:
I think this assumes anyone will know if Brexit is a success or failure.david_kendrick1 said:
Estimates (ok let's leave out Patrick Minford's) put the likely diminution of aggregate and per capita GDP by 2030 of anywhere between 1.5-6% and 0.8-1% respectively.
Nothing you can drop on your foot so I think May and the Gruesome Threesome are pretty much in the clear.
But if a politician says, as David Davis has just done, "Of course Germany et al will be rational and sign up to full access to the SM with no FOM because they want to sell us lots of cars" and then Merkel turns round and says, "No way!". It subsequently turns out completely different from what was said, so the government loses a lot of credibility. Ditto if a high profile employers says, "We are off to Holland because they are in the EU, but Britain isn't" Ditto, a high profile FTA gets canned because the other country decides to concentrate on its relations with the EU instead.
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.0 -
Probably. And soon we will see the plans to create a "Grand Army of the Union".. to counter the increasing threat of something or other.TGOHF said:
Was this information held back until after the referendum ?RobD said:
Wait, I thought being in the EU was good for the environment?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
Tamils in Kingston & Surbiton vote Con or Libdem.surbiton said:
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
-
Do you have a (post referendum) link for your last assertion?FF43 said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.John_M said:
I completely agree with all but your last point.FF43 said:
The political risks come when demands or predictions made are very publicly not met. There is absolutely no doubt there will be a deal.TOPPING said:
I think this assumes anyone will know if Brexit is a success or failure.david_kendrick1 said:
Estimates (ok let's leave out Patrick Minford's) put the likely diminution of aggregate and per capita GDP by 2030 of anywhere between 1.5-6% and 0.8-1% respectively.
Nothing you can drop on your foot so I think May and the Gruesome Threesome are pretty much in the clear.
But if a politician says, as David Davis has just done, "Of course Germany et al will be rational and sign up to full access to the SM with no FOM because they want to sell us lots of cars" and then Merkel turns round and says, "No way!". It subsequently turns out completely different from what was said, so the government loses a lot of credibility. Ditto if a high profile employers says, "We are off to Holland because they are in the EU, but Britain isn't" Ditto, a high profile FTA gets canned because the other country decides to concentrate on its relations with the EU instead.
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.0 -
The European Union reorganised into The First Galactic Empire?RobD said:
Probably. And soon we will see the plans to create a "Grand Army of the Union".. to counter the increasing threat of something or other.TGOHF said:
Was this information held back until after the referendum ?RobD said:
Wait, I thought being in the EU was good for the environment?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
I keep seeing this and it still makes no sense to me. What brought them down was they weren't strong enough to not hold a referendum, then were inadequate to the task of winning it for their side. Even if they thought they would win, it wasn't believing that , believing propaganda, which brought them down, they clearly fought as hard as possible with no complacency, they just weren't up to the task of getting a better deal then selling the deal they did get. That's inadequacy, on this issue, not arrogance. Even if that was there, it wasn't why they lost, since it didn't manifest in not trying hard enough.pbr2013 said:
On the whole, I think that the Cameroons did well in government, esp in the Coalition. But somehow the tears just won't come. They brought it on themselves, believing their own propaganda.CarlottaVance said:Iain Martin published this 23 hours ago before the full extent of the changes were known:
Six months ago David Cameron was dominant. He had saved the Union and won an election, returning the Tory party to a majority position.
George Osborne readied himself for the succession. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson worked to overtake Osborne. The great reformer Michael Gove weighed his options ahead of the referendum. Other ministers, MPs, chums and advisers who had hitched their wagons to the Cameron/Osborne project bustled around enjoying power or proximity to power.
Underneath them, a whole social network – with its own manners, assumptions and habits – whirred away in London and nice parts of the home counties at weekends.
It is all turned to dust now....... The group that only recently dominated British politics is now history.
http://reaction.life/mays-rise-seals-incredible-destruction-entire-generation-top-tories/
0 -
Racist stereo-typing!surbiton said:
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
Hmm. even more racist stereo-typing!pbr2013 said:
Tamils in Kingston & Surbiton vote Con or Libdem.surbiton said:
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
That would be an excellent appointment. We still haven't had the junior trade minister announcements. It would unite the nation.williamglenn said:0 -
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/588242783317712896surbiton said:
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
The word from the US is that they want the UK to be involved with the TTIP because it's dead without our involvement. It won't pass without the UK, at which point we'll be first in the queue, but the US want to have their cake and eat it so are trying to get a way for the UK into the TTIP either as an additional contracting party or as an EU associate signatory.FF43 said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.0 -
Which is what I was trying to highlight about surbiton's post.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hmm. even more racist stereo-typing!pbr2013 said:
Tamils in Kingston & Surbiton vote Con or Libdem.surbiton said:
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
They need, in general, to be removed from the process entirely until the implementation stage.HurstLlama said:"The three Brexiteers will be all but irrelevant in the negotiations on Brexit. Their main significance will be the influence they have on their civil servants."
Do not underestimate the importance of doing just that. A large number of civil servants, especially at the FCO, have just had the rug of their world pulled out from beneath them and will be struggling to cope with the new requirements. Those same civil servants will be doing a lot of the detail and writing the position papers.
To get a good deal for the UK those civil servants will need close guidance and support.0 -
The irony is that Cameron's majority on the back of LibDem gains ensured that the referendum went ahead whereas a continuing Coalition would have blocked it and he'd still be PM et al.CarlottaVance said:Cameron's finest hour was undoubtedly forming the coalition government then running it smoothly for 5 years - no mean feat. He's been sloppy, slapdash & lazy since winning the majority - three adjectives no one has ever applied to May......
Funny old lark this politics business.0 -
I think we all get a little carried away with FTAs. The EU has FTAs (or similar) with two out of its top ten trade partners. The WTO has been quite effective at reducing tariffs globally. It is now increasingly concerned with non-tariff barriers (per the G20 trade ministers communiqueFF43 said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.John_M said:FF43 said:
The political risks come when demands or predictions made are very publicly not met. There is absolutely no doubt there will be a deal.TOPPING said:
I think this assumes anyone will know if Brexit is a success or failure.david_kendrick1 said:
Estimates (ok let's leave out Patrick Minford's) put the likely diminution of aggregate and per capita GDP by 2030 of anywhere between 1.5-6% and 0.8-1% respectively.
Nothing you can drop on your foot so I think May and the Gruesome Threesome are pretty much in the clear.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.
last week)
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news16_e/dgra_09jul16_e.pdf
In terms of the US, I quite understand their position - with TTIP struggling, the UK is hardly a priority.
IIRC the EU has 33 FTAs, EFTA has 26. Presented purely for information, rather than to make any particular point.
0 -
I don't think for a minute that they thought there was any realistic chance of losing it. Classic hubris to nemesis. They only ever beat Brown, Salmond and Milliband. That doesn't make you a political genius. Their luck just ran out.kle4 said:
I keep seeing this and it still makes no sense to me. What brought them down was they weren't strong enough to not hold a referendum, then were inadequate to the task of winning it for their side. Even if they thought they would win, it wasn't believing that , believing propaganda, which brought them down, they clearly fought as hard as possible with no complacency, they just weren't up to the task of getting a better deal then selling the deal they did get. That's inadequacy, on this issue, not arrogance. Even if that was there, it wasn't why they lost, since it didn't manifest in not trying hard enough.pbr2013 said:
On the whole, I think that the Cameroons did well in government, esp in the Coalition. But somehow the tears just won't come. They brought it on themselves, believing their own propaganda.CarlottaVance said:Iain Martin published this 23 hours ago before the full extent of the changes were known:
Six months ago David Cameron was dominant. He had saved the Union and won an election, returning the Tory party to a majority position.
George Osborne readied himself for the succession. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson worked to overtake Osborne. The great reformer Michael Gove weighed his options ahead of the referendum. Other ministers, MPs, chums and advisers who had hitched their wagons to the Cameron/Osborne project bustled around enjoying power or proximity to power.
Underneath them, a whole social network – with its own manners, assumptions and habits – whirred away in London and nice parts of the home counties at weekends.
It is all turned to dust now....... The group that only recently dominated British politics is now history.
http://reaction.life/mays-rise-seals-incredible-destruction-entire-generation-top-tories/0 -
Trump's VP candidate = Mike Pence.0
-
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
eg this: Transatlantic trade treaties are no quick fix for Brexitpbr2013 said:
Do you have a (post referendum) link for your last assertion?FF43 said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.John_M said:
I completely agree with all but your last point.FF43 said:
The political risks come when demands or predictions made are very publicly not met. There is absolutely no doubt there will be a deal.TOPPING said:
But if a politician says, as David Davis has just done, "Of course Germany et al will be rational and sign up to full access to the SM with no FOM because they want to sell us lots of cars" and then Merkel turns round and says, "No way!". It subsequently turns out completely different from what was said, so the government loses a lot of credibility. Ditto if a high profile employers says, "We are off to Holland because they are in the EU, but Britain isn't" Ditto, a high profile FTA gets canned because the other country decides to concentrate on its relations with the EU instead.
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.0 -
Because their customers couldn't give a flying f8ck.HurstLlama said:
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
It's Mike Pence.0
-
John_M said:
We are drifting away from the original subject of the political risk of Brexit. Are you suggesting Free Trade Agreements don't matter that much? If so, I agree, except for the one with the EU.FF43 said:
I think we all get a little carried away with FTAs. The EU has FTAs (or similar) with two out of its top ten trade partners. The WTO has been quite effective at reducing tariffs globally. It is now increasingly concerned with non-tariff barriers (per the G20 trade ministers communiqueJohn_M said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.FF43 said:TOPPING said:
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.
last week)
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news16_e/dgra_09jul16_e.pdf
In terms of the US, I quite understand their position - with TTIP struggling, the UK is hardly a priority.
IIRC the EU has 33 FTAs, EFTA has 26. Presented purely for information, rather than to make any particular point.
[EDIT] They can make a significant difference to trade but we are talking about the collective quality of the FTA set under one scenario rather than under another. I don't think there is likely to be a big difference - except for the EU Treaty because that's our most important one and we are killing it.0 -
Because the Commission who overlooked their illegal antics are also in charge of the EU response because they set the air quality standards. The German government also seems to be giving them protection because they know all the German car makers have been at it, as proved by the new UK tests.HurstLlama said:
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
The only actual quote from a US trade official there is one saying we will have to wait and see. And you misquoted him, no doubt accidently.FF43 said:
eg this: Transatlantic trade treaties are no quick fix for Brexitpbr2013 said:
Do you have a (post referendum) link for your last assertion?FF43 said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.John_M said:
I completely agree with all but your last point.FF43 said:
The political risks come when demands or predictions made are very publicly not met. There is absolutely no doubt there will be a deal.TOPPING said:
But if a politician says, as David Davis has just done, "Of course Germany et al will be rational and sign up to full access to the SM with no FOM because they want to sell us lots of cars" and then Merkel turns round and says, "No way!". It subsequently turns out completely different from what was said, so the government loses a lot of credibility. Ditto if a high profile employers says, "We are off to Holland because they are in the EU, but Britain isn't" Ditto, a high profile FTA gets canned because the other country decides to concentrate on its relations with the EU instead.
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.0 -
Not really. It's the Commission that are holding back national responses as they want an EU wide settlement.TOPPING said:
Because their customers couldn't give a flying f8ck.HurstLlama said:
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
This sourced?AndyJS said:Trump's VP candidate = Mike Pence.
0 -
All car manufacturers would be using the same OEM suppliers, and those OEM suppliers had to know what was going on.MaxPB said:
Because the Commission who overlooked their illegal antics are also in charge of the EU response because they set the air quality standards. The German government also seems to be giving them protection because they know all the German car makers have been at it, as proved by the new UK tests.HurstLlama said:
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
That seems reasonable.FF43 said:
We are drifting away from the original subject of the political risk of Brexit. Are you suggesting Free Trade Agreements don't matter that much? If so, I agree, except for the one with the EU.John_M said:
I think we all get a little carried away with FTAs. The EU has FTAs (or similar) with two out of its top ten trade partners. The WTO has been quite effective at reducing tariffs globally. It is now increasingly concerned with non-tariff barriers (per the G20 trade ministers communiqueFF43 said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.John_M said:FF43 said:
The political risks come when demands or predictions made are very publicly not met. There is absolutely no doubt there will be a deal.TOPPING said:
I think this assumes anyone will know if Brexit is a success or failure.david_kendrick1 said:
Estimates (ok let's leave out Patrick Minford's) put the likely diminution of aggregate and per capita GDP by 2030 of anywhere between 1.5-6% and 0.8-1% respectively.
Nothing you can drop on your foot so I think May and the Gruesome Threesome are pretty much in the clear.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.
last week)
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news16_e/dgra_09jul16_e.pdf
In terms of the US, I quite understand their position - with TTIP struggling, the UK is hardly a priority.
IIRC the EU has 33 FTAs, EFTA has 26. Presented purely for information, rather than to make any particular point.0 -
Eddie Izzard means well, bless him. Nonetheless WTF is a 'radical moderate'? Surely that's an oxymoron?0
-
I don't think it is possible to exclude civil servants from government business. Someone has to do the preparatory work and write the position papers for a minister.runnymede said:
They need, in general, to be removed from the process entirely until the implementation stage.HurstLlama said:"The three Brexiteers will be all but irrelevant in the negotiations on Brexit. Their main significance will be the influence they have on their civil servants."
Do not underestimate the importance of doing just that. A large number of civil servants, especially at the FCO, have just had the rug of their world pulled out from beneath them and will be struggling to cope with the new requirements. Those same civil servants will be doing a lot of the detail and writing the position papers.
To get a good deal for the UK those civil servants will need close guidance and support.0 -
They are. Figures like $15 bn and upwards are floating around for the provision they have made for settling lawsuits.HurstLlama said:
What I still do not understand is why Volkswagen are no up their arse in lawsuits and prosecutions. They deliberately and with malice aforethought set out to deceive the regulators and their customers and have admitted as much. They must have broken all sorts of laws. Why are they not be hounded through the courts?runnymede said:
Plenty of clowns on here I imagineMaxPB said:
Who still wants to pretend that the Commission isn't just an outpost of German industry?williamglenn said:Breaking news in Germany that the EU commission knew about the emissions scandal in 2010 and did nothing about it.
0 -
Ethnic minorities disproportionately vote Labour - this is not news. However, a combination of David Cameron and the emergence of UKIP have made the Tories a much more attractive proposition.pbr2013 said:
Which is what I was trying to highlight about surbiton's post.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hmm. even more racist stereo-typing!pbr2013 said:
Tamils in Kingston & Surbiton vote Con or Libdem.surbiton said:
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
He was hoping for a coalition too. But he attacked the yellows too much. Maybe he didn't think they would collapse like their promises.JackW said:
The irony is that Cameron's majority on the back of LibDem gains ensured that the referendum went ahead whereas a continuing Coalition would have blocked it and he'd still be PM et al.CarlottaVance said:Cameron's finest hour was undoubtedly forming the coalition government then running it smoothly for 5 years - no mean feat. He's been sloppy, slapdash & lazy since winning the majority - three adjectives no one has ever applied to May......
Funny old lark this politics business.0 -
Mr. 2013, the Remain campaign should've won easily. A better deal, a better campaign would've won it 60/40 at a canter.0
-
It’s an oxymoron as you say – I think Eddie is trying to distinguish between the radical moderates, who are merely nuts and the radical radicals which are totally barking.The_Apocalypse said:Eddie Izzard means well, bless him. Nonetheless WTF is a 'radical moderate'? Surely that's an oxymoron?
0 -
Oops, I see it now, sorry!pbr2013 said:
Which is what I was trying to highlight about surbiton's post.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hmm. even more racist stereo-typing!pbr2013 said:
Tamils in Kingston & Surbiton vote Con or Libdem.surbiton said:
Punjabis vote Labour. See Ealing Southall.williamglenn said:
Is there any evidence of residual gratitude the the party in power at the time people immigrate? I would have thought that if the Ugandan Asians vote Tory it's because of an affinity on cultural values (Yasmin Alibhai-Brown excepted).surbiton said:
THe SPD would have been their natural home but people remember who helped them. The reason Ugandan Asians vote Tory amongst all ethnic minorities is because of Ted Heath.nunu said:
They won't vote CDU.surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)
When comparing with the situation in Germany there's also a huge difference in numbers. At a certain point, Islamic religious parties must become viable.0 -
I don't much like your implication. I never claimed to quote from a particular article and my summary of the situation matches what was reported in the article.pbr2013 said:
The only actual quote from a US trade official there is one saying we will have to wait and see. And you misquoted him, no doubt accidently.FF43 said:
eg this: Transatlantic trade treaties are no quick fix for Brexitpbr2013 said:
Do you have a (post referendum) link for your last assertion?FF43 said:
I was thinking about this. Getting the UK to agree an FTA is definitely easier than herding the EU cats. However there is the other side to think about. They are not going to be more amenable to the UK than to the EU. Globalisation is out of fashion and that's putting dampers on free trade agreements. Britain is coming late to the party, while the EU has a number of FTAs in place or in the works. This is not co-incidental. Brexit is itself a manifestation of that anti-globalisation mood.John_M said:
I completely agree with all but your last point.FF43 said:
The EU is notoriously sclerotic (which should surprise precisely no one). CETA was agreed in September 2014. It has yet to be put before EU national parliaments. The SIngapore FTA was agreed in October 2014. It's not even scheduled for ratification yet.
Brexit isn't going to be kittens and rainbows, but it's undeniably a hell of a lot easier to negotiate a bilateral FTA versus dealing with the EU en bloc
On Obama's back of the queue comment. It was tendentious, maybe aggressive, but seems to be correct on the substance. US trade negotiators said since Brexit they have no current interest in doing an FTA with the UK. It makes no sense to do so until the UK sorts out its arrangement with the EU and until the US fixes its own agreement with the EU.0 -
Of course it is. You set up your own unit with your own experts to do the prep work. Actually, if we want this to happen, such a move is probably essential. The civil service are working for the other side.HurstLlama said:
I don't think it is possible to exclude civil servants from government business. Someone has to do the preparatory work and write the position papers for a minister.runnymede said:
They need, in general, to be removed from the process entirely until the implementation stage.HurstLlama said:"The three Brexiteers will be all but irrelevant in the negotiations on Brexit. Their main significance will be the influence they have on their civil servants."
Do not underestimate the importance of doing just that. A large number of civil servants, especially at the FCO, have just had the rug of their world pulled out from beneath them and will be struggling to cope with the new requirements. Those same civil servants will be doing a lot of the detail and writing the position papers.
To get a good deal for the UK those civil servants will need close guidance and support.0
