politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May’s new government, we’re nearly there
Comments
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Uncork the GaukeScott_P said:Gauke Chief Secretary to the Treasury
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Run that by me again: So how are the farmers gonna lose money by us leaving the EU?Scott_P said:
And again you are obsessed by "EU money" which is not what I was talking about, in any of the posts you have latched on to so far.Sunil_Prasannan said:So we're not losing non-EU money by leaving the EU?
Why do you keep wittering on about it?0 -
He'll still be attending European finance ministers' meetings so should have plenty of contact with Schaeuble and the rest to ensure that the economic side of the negotiation is not the stuff of fantasy.Cyclefree said:
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.0 -
And it will apparently be £6.5+ billion for the Norway EFTA/EEA solution - no rebate, rememberSunil_Prasannan said:
We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...0 -
There are all manner of noises off about who can invoke article 50, including whether it requires an Act of Parliament or not. The issue is that the wording of article 50 could have been written by Labour - it's rather vague:Toms said:
Thanks.RobD said:
Yes. But that won't change the fact we'll be leaving.Toms said:
So this referendum was advisory only?RobD said:
The AV referendum was binding, this one was not. They parliament did vote to hold a referendum though, so would be stupid to ignore it.Toms said:
Seriously, and please forgive my ignorance, but is not the Commons the only, final, arbiter in British law? Or did Parliament actually approve the referendum to start with? If it was Cameron's choice, or even that of the Tory party, then sod that.Pulpstar said:
Second brexitToms said:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215AndyJS said:Owen Smith calls for a second referendum because many voters "now regret their decision".
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-candidate-vows-second-vote-on-brexit-n79bxds9z
I would have thought such a process should be more rigorous. Grist for the legal community here?
It's a pity, with much sympathy, that Mr. Meeks is hors de combat. His input would have been interesting.
"1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements."
That's fine for some states, less so for a country with a constitution as ethereal as ours.0 -
Why don't you read the thread. starting with the post you latched onto, that did not make any mention of "EU money"?Sunil_Prasannan said:Run that by me again: So how are the farmers gonna lose money by us leaving the EU?
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@MrHarryCole: The Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Rt Hon David Lidington as Leader of the House of Commons.0
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Justice 1 for Gauke. DoneTheScreamingEagles said:
Uncork the GaukeScott_P said:Gauke Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Justice 2 for Lord H? Just saying, Prime Minister0 -
Yep. David Davis is the key man. Boris will be doing the Boris stuff. Fox will probably do the travelling salesman bit, so Boris doesn't have to. A plethora of high quality FTAs? Doubtful.Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think they will have to work particularly closely together on the negotiations. The structure appears to indicate that Boris won't be much involved with the Brexit negotiations at all, that will be DD's responsibility. Meanwhile Fox will be trying to set up deals with the US, China, and other far-off lands. I can see some potential problems of overlap in the Fox/Boris responsibilities, but the EU negotiations seem to be squarely DD's problem. I hope he's up to it, I have my doubts on that.jonny83 said:...
The Boris/Fox/Davis triumvirate for me has potential disaster written all over it. They will have to work together on some pats of the negotiations you would think and all three of them might have a different vision for a post UK brexit. ...
So it comes down to whether Davis can extract us from the EU with the fewest scratches and bruises possible, acting with effective haste and making the most of a weak negotiating hand. Nothing I have seen so far indicates he has what is needed.0 -
Fallon, Hunt, Johnson, Rudd all ex public school and a higher percentage of the Cabinet than the 7% nationallyPhilip_Thompson said:Is it truly egalitarian if there are hardly any former public schoolboys and schoolgirls there? You'd think if it was truly egalitarian, based on merit that there would be some. Penalising people for their parents choices is not egalitarian.
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Run that by me again: So how are the farmers gonna lose money by us leaving the EU?Scott_P said:
Why don't you read the thread. starting with the post you latched onto, that did not make any mention of "EU money"?Sunil_Prasannan said:Run that by me again: So how are the farmers gonna lose money by us leaving the EU?
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Which would still leave us net £2 billion better off. So why would there need to be a cut?sarissa said:
And it will apparently be £6.5+ billion for the Norway EFTA/EEA solution - no rebate, rememberSunil_Prasannan said:
We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...0 -
Liddington - Leader of the Commons0
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Theresa May hasn’t just parked her tanks on Labour’s lawn. She’s climbed out, walked over to theirs, lifted the hatch, climbed in and driven off with them.
Without the fallback of class and identity politics, what do they have left?
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I suspect the Commons let alone the Tory share of it is not 7% so that's not surely the right figure to use.HYUFD said:
Fallon, Hunt, Johnson, Rudd all ex public school and a higher percentage of the Cabinet than the 7% nationallyPhilip_Thompson said:Is it truly egalitarian if there are hardly any former public schoolboys and schoolgirls there? You'd think if it was truly egalitarian, based on merit that there would be some. Penalising people for their parents choices is not egalitarian.
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Well, ignoring the rebate in 2015, our total contribution was £18 billion.sarissa said:
And it will apparently be £6.5+ billion for the Norway EFTA/EEA solution - no rebate, rememberSunil_Prasannan said:
We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...0 -
Most of the money/rebate is due to the CAP. We wouldn't be in the CAP.sarissa said:
And it will apparently be £6.5+ billion for the Norway EFTA/EEA solution - no rebate, rememberSunil_Prasannan said:
We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...0 -
They're all being deselected.RobD said:
"Tory Scum!"chestnut said:Theresa May hasn’t just parked her tanks on Labour’s lawn. She’s climbed out, walked over to theirs, lifted the hatch, climbed in and driven off with theirs.
Without the fallback of class and identity politics, what do they have left?0 -
We can but hopewilliamglenn said:
They're all being deselected.RobD said:
"Tory Scum!"chestnut said:Theresa May hasn’t just parked her tanks on Labour’s lawn. She’s climbed out, walked over to theirs, lifted the hatch, climbed in and driven off with theirs.
Without the fallback of class and identity politics, what do they have left?0 -
Read the thread. This is really dull nowSunil_Prasannan said:Run that by me again:
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Exactly and we were in EFTA from 1960 to 1973Sunil_Prasannan said:
Well, ignoring the rebate in 2015, our total contribution was £18 billion.sarissa said:
And it will apparently be £6.5+ billion for the Norway EFTA/EEA solution - no rebate, rememberSunil_Prasannan said:
We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...0 -
So IDS went to Downing Street for nothing then?0
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The SNP were the only party to vote against the EU Referendum Act of 2015.
Passed by 544 votes to 53.0 -
I watched all day and never saw him.The_Apocalypse said:So IDS went to Downing Street for nothing then?
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The Tory share ex public school is now about 50% and the Commons about 20 to 30%Philip_Thompson said:
I suspect the Commons let alone the Tory share of it is not 7% so that's not surely the right figure to use.HYUFD said:
Fallon, Hunt, Johnson, Rudd all ex public school and a higher percentage of the Cabinet than the 7% nationallyPhilip_Thompson said:Is it truly egalitarian if there are hardly any former public schoolboys and schoolgirls there? You'd think if it was truly egalitarian, based on merit that there would be some. Penalising people for their parents choices is not egalitarian.
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He was seen approaching Downing Street - but no-one saw him go inside as far as I am awareThe_Apocalypse said:So IDS went to Downing Street for nothing then?
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Another Davis supporter in 2005 but well regarded by Cameron and long serving and suffering Europe Minister. A deserved promotion.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: The Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Rt Hon David Lidington as Leader of the House of Commons.
So that's it for the top table.
But more fun (and insights) for the second and third tier of junior Ministers. Could any of last year's intake get their first mits around the greasy pole? Or the overlooked from 2010?0 -
On PB it was reported that he'd gone into Downing Street (that's why I thought he had). That's why there was speculation over whether he'd get a role or not.PlatoSaid said:
I watched all day and never saw him.The_Apocalypse said:So IDS went to Downing Street for nothing then?
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sarissa said:
And it will apparently be £6.5+ billion for the Norway EFTA/EEA solution - no rebate, rememberSunil_Prasannan said:
We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...
We have a better trading position with the EU than Norway, so it won't be the exact Norway amounts.
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Entirely their own doing by vacating all that territory without a fight. Those moderate centre-left Labour MP's must be feeling absolutely sick right now.chestnut said:Theresa May hasn’t just parked her tanks on Labour’s lawn. She’s climbed out, walked over to theirs, lifted the hatch, climbed in and driven off with them.
Without the fallback of class and identity politics, what do they have left?
If May gets this right Labour could be out of power for decades.0 -
Maybe May's given him a special job where he has to be really, really quiet for the next 4 years.The_Apocalypse said:
On PB it was reported that he'd gone into Downing Street (that's why I thought he had). That's why there was speculation over whether he'd get a role or not.PlatoSaid said:
I watched all day and never saw him.The_Apocalypse said:So IDS went to Downing Street for nothing then?
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How are farmers gonna lose their money? Or don't you know?Scott_P said:
Read the thread. This is really dull nowSunil_Prasannan said:Run that by me again:
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You could form a "B" Team cabinet with more skill and experience than the shadow front bench0
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And there really doesn't seem to be an outcome where we will be in the CAP, which is the largest line item in the EU budget. Can anyone think of any reason why that's not a good thing?MarkHopkins said:sarissa said:
And it will apparently be £6.5+ billion for the Norway EFTA/EEA solution - no rebate, rememberSunil_Prasannan said:
We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...
We have a better trading position with the EU than Norway, so it won't be the exact Norway amounts.0 -
"Their money"? Don't you mean "taxpayers' money"?Sunil_Prasannan said:How are farmers gonna lose their money?
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They are a dwindling band of yesterdays men.....and Cameron will be personally loyal - so I doubt they'll get up to much mischief. Quite a skilful redeployment of the talents - if you BREXIT you own it.....RochdalePioneers said:May has really surprised me - a massive recasting of government and a massive power shift away from the Cameroons. Surely they can't be happy?
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All I can suggest is that May agrees a timetable with agreed milestones with Davis, which she will pull at the first sign of deviation. You said fire Article 50 on this date. You said EU partners are rational and would agree to full access on services and no FOM. We're at that date now. Are they rational? Have they agreed? If not, you don't know what you are talking about and you're out.Cyclefree said:
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will own this, regardless of whether the mess was created by the 3 Brexiteers. She's in charge now. So she had better make it clear to them what vision of Brexit she has and make sure they do their best to get it. And the Merkels of this world are going to want to deal with the organ grinder, not the monkeys - whatever their titles.jonny83 said:
[Snipped]
I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.0 -
RIP Osborne. RIP Osborne's inner circle. RIP Osborneism. RIP anyone who'd ever even look at George Osborne.0
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That is utter bollocks. All the informed commentators estimate it will be between £2.5 and £3 billion net (which is almost but not quite exactly the same as the gross) if we are in the EEA. If we are only in EFTA it is a much smaller amount again.sarissa said:
And it will apparently be £6.5+ billion for the Norway EFTA/EEA solution - no rebate, rememberSunil_Prasannan said:
We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...0 -
Clark is son of a milkman, raised in Tyneside, state educated, Cambridge and LSE, Tunbridge Wells MP and the last DCLG SecretaryTGOHF said:Who is Greg Clark ? Never heard of him.
Almost zero Nat fightback to May putting them back in their box last night - the Indy dream is dead for 30-40 years IMHO.0 -
Hopefully RIP the last remnants of continuity Brown in the Treasury.grabcocque said:RIP Osborne. RIP Osborne's inner circle. RIP Osborneism. RIP anyone who'd ever even look at George Osborne.
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From the 2015ers, Chris Philp, perhaps?JohnO said:But more fun (and insights) for the second and third tier of junior Ministers. Could any of last year's intake get their first mits around the greasy pole? Or the overlooked from 2010?
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Maybe that's the job TM gave him 'I'd like you to become foreigners' secretary BoJo' - 'What what yes maam delighted' bow/scrape/bow and kiss the kitten heels!blackburn63 said:Overheard in pub earlier.
"The problem we've got is too many foreigners but now Boris is Foreign Secretary he'll take 'em all back with him."
You've got to love the general public.0 -
What do you mean? Don't farmers pay any tax?Scott_P said:
"Their money"? Don't you mean "taxpayers' money"?Sunil_Prasannan said:How are farmers gonna lose their money?
How are farmers gonna lose money? Or can't you explain it in your own words?0 -
You mean we don't have them any more? So explains why the UK has gone to the dogs!!Alanbrooke said:
Scott has never heard of the Corn Laws.John_M said:
The UK has subsidised its farmers since the year dot. People should try cracking open a history book every now and then.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it day "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...0 -
I would like to see Charlotte Leslie (2010) given a role, if her health allows it.Richard_Nabavi said:
From the 2015ers, Chris Philp, perhaps?JohnO said:But more fun (and insights) for the second and third tier of junior Ministers. Could any of last year's intake get their first mits around the greasy pole? Or the overlooked from 2010?
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David Lidington is 60 (elected 1992), ditto Green...the average age of this Cabinet must surely be notably higher than the last.0
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Full respect, old porpoise, but if that is all you can suggest then you might want to expand your imagination a tad.FF43 said:
All I can suggest is that May agrees a timetable with agreed milestones with Davis, which she will pull at the first sign of deviation. You said fire Article 50 on this date. You said EU partners are rational and would agree to full access on services and no FOM. We're at that date now. Are they rational? Have they agreed? If not, you don't know what you are talking about and you're out.Cyclefree said:
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will own this, regardless of whether the mess was created by the 3 Brexiteers. She's in charge now. So she had better make it clear to them what vision of Brexit she has and make sure they do their best to get it. And the Merkels of this world are going to want to deal with the organ grinder, not the monkeys - whatever their titles.jonny83 said:
[Snipped]
I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.0 -
@williamglenn And IDS gets the Department of Quiet men and women....
@grabcocque As Alanbrooke said in response to Osborne's sacking: Alsan the lion has returned, summer is upon us again, the White Queen is dead. In other news Lord Voldermolt has also been killed, and Darth Vader is no longer with us as well.0 -
I'm not sure you understand the meme that the previous "Scott_P" was pushing up to a few minutes ago.Scott_P said:
"Their money"? Don't you mean "taxpayers' money"?Sunil_Prasannan said:How are farmers gonna lose their money?
Was it a hurried shift handover?0 -
He didn't call the policemen "Plebs" did he?oxfordsimon said:
He was seen approaching Downing Street - but no-one saw him go inside as far as I am awareThe_Apocalypse said:So IDS went to Downing Street for nothing then?
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I do hope so, Mr. Glenn. I also hope that TM is going to clip the Treasury's wings and return it to its proper function.williamglenn said:
Hopefully RIP the last remnants of continuity Brown in the Treasury.grabcocque said:RIP Osborne. RIP Osborne's inner circle. RIP Osborneism. RIP anyone who'd ever even look at George Osborne.
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How's Jeremy Hunt going to spend is extra £18.2bn a year?0
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TSE won't be happy with thatgrabcocque said:RIP Osborne. RIP Osborne's inner circle. RIP Osborneism. RIP anyone who'd ever even look at George Osborne.
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Um, clearly they do have the idea, that's why they're desperate to stop it. I cannot see a realistic avenue either to justify the holding of a second referendum before article 50 is declare - anecdotal reports of regrets so soon after is hardly justification - or this government agreeing to do so or being replaced at a GE by a government which would - not least because the chances of a new GE before we declare are looking very slim - but obviously people know we're heading out, and probably accept it can't be prevented, realistically. So it's about demonstrating they tried or at least told people they would have tried if given the chance.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They have no idea do they - we are going outAndyJS said:Owen Smith calls for a second referendum because many voters "now regret their decision".
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-candidate-vows-second-vote-on-brexit-n79bxds9z
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6.5% of the population go to private schools, so in a 30 strong Governemnt you'd expect perhaps 2 or 3. So May has it about right.Philip_Thompson said:Is it truly egalitarian if there are hardly any former public schoolboys and schoolgirls there? You'd think if it was truly egalitarian, based on merit that there would be some. Penalising people for their parents choices is not egalitarian.
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Clark looks the interesting appointment for me. Merging Energy with Business doesn't seem a bad idea. What about CSttT? Jo Johnson?0
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He'll buy you a straitjacket, if you're lucky!Pong said:How's Jeremy Hunt going to spend is extra £18.2bn a year?
(only kidding!)0 -
TSE was already in luurve with Theresa by lunchtime. As Bertie says when Jeeves describes someone as warm-hearted, "Warm-hearted? I should think he has to wear asbestos waistcoats!"Sunil_Prasannan said:
TSE won't be happy with thatgrabcocque said:RIP Osborne. RIP Osborne's inner circle. RIP Osborneism. RIP anyone who'd ever even look at George Osborne.
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Mr. Cocque, that may be an error by May.
If she'd peeled off Osborne's lieutenants, he'd be not quite alone on the backbenches, but diminished. As it is, he and his followers (or ex-followers) far exceed the Conservative majority. It's possible she'll be fine. It's possible she's made the Morsi Mistake.0 -
Hammond would most likely be closest to Major or Darling as Chancellorwilliamglenn said:
Hopefully RIP the last remnants of continuity Brown in the Treasury.grabcocque said:RIP Osborne. RIP Osborne's inner circle. RIP Osborneism. RIP anyone who'd ever even look at George Osborne.
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David Gauke goes to Chief SecFrankBooth said:Clark looks the interesting appointment for me. Merging Energy with Business doesn't seem a bad idea. What about CSttT? Jo Johnson?
Treasury's man through and through0 -
Possibly more imagination than other people, but let's not quibble. Do you think David Davis will pull off a smart, clean and high calibre Brexit?HurstLlama said:
Full respect, old porpoise, but if that is all you can suggest then you might want to expand your imagination a tad.FF43 said:
All I can suggest is that May agrees a timetable with agreed milestones with Davis, which she will pull at the first sign of deviation. You said fire Article 50 on this date. You said EU partners are rational and would agree to full access on services and no FOM. We're at that date now. Are they rational? Have they agreed? If not, you don't know what you are talking about and you're out.Cyclefree said:
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will own this, regardless of whether the mess was created by the 3 Brexiteers. She's in charge now. So she had better make it clear to them what vision of Brexit she has and make sure they do their best to get it. And the Merkels of this world are going to want to deal with the organ grinder, not the monkeys - whatever their titles.jonny83 said:
[Snipped]
I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.0 -
Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)0 -
What about merging Communities with Scotland and Wales? Maybe NI too eventually though perhaps that's a little contentious.0
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Exactly right. Cyclefree is a shrewdie.Cyclefree said:
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will own this, regardless of whether the mess was created by the 3 Brexiteers. She's in charge now. So she had better make it clear to them what vision of Brexit she has and make sure they do their best to get it. And the Merkels of this world are going to want to deal with the organ grinder, not the monkeys - whatever their titles.jonny83 said:Some interesting choices and perhaps some questionable ones as well. She has the power and the right to choose who she wants and she is clearly stamping her authority in line with her vision for the future. Have to see how it plays out.
The Boris/Fox/Davis triumvirate for me has potential disaster written all over it. They will have to work together on some pats of the negotiations you would think and all three of them might have a different vision for a post UK brexit. On the one hand May might think Brexit is your mess deal with it and if any of those right wing backbenchers kick up a fuss she can just say well I gave your lot the power to sort it out. But on the other hand if it doesn't work out she could still take damage from it, people will question her judgement.
[Snipped]
I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.
I'd go a step further.
The three Brexiteers will be all but irrelevant in the negotiations on Brexit. Their main significance will be the influence they have on their civil servants.
On the main issue of the day---Brexit---the PM does not have the luxury of being able to delegate the job. It is squarely in her lap, and she'll stand or fall on the results. She will have to do it herself.
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Yes. But politically unviable to ignore without a competing democratic mandate, which it is also politically difficult to justify or enact. A threshold for referendums on big issues like these is not inherently a bad idea, many places have some sort of threshold, and conversely it might be a good idea to have a rule about not holding reruns within a certain time period.Toms said:
So this referendum was advisory only?RobD said:
The AV referendum was binding, this one was not. They parliament did vote to hold a referendum though, so would be stupid to ignore it.Toms said:
Seriously, and please forgive my ignorance, but is not the Commons the only, final, arbiter in British law? Or did Parliament actually approve the referendum to start with? If it was Cameron's choice, or even that of the Tory party, then sod that.Pulpstar said:
Second brexitToms said:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215AndyJS said:Owen Smith calls for a second referendum because many voters "now regret their decision".
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-candidate-vows-second-vote-on-brexit-n79bxds9z
So either approach, to permit or prevent a second referendum might be good ideas, but neither was in place, so one could be held in theory. But in reality it woukd be next to impossible as things stand.0 -
IF he did I don't suppose they heard him.Sunil_Prasannan said:
He didn't call the policemen "Plebs" did he?oxfordsimon said:
He was seen approaching Downing Street - but no-one saw him go inside as far as I am awareThe_Apocalypse said:So IDS went to Downing Street for nothing then?
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Is it me or is the England over rate utterly farcical ?
There should be a hundred run penalty if the overs aren't got in without a good reason. Would soon sort it.0 -
Mike Pence is Trump's running mate.
Source: NYTimes0 -
That's an amusing line, but wouldn't it have been seen as trying to negate the referendum outcome if Ms May had appointed Remain-leaning people?CarlottaVance said:
They are a dwindling band of yesterdays men.....and Cameron will be personally loyal - so I doubt they'll get up to much mischief. Quite a skilful redeployment of the talents - if you BREXIT you own it.....RochdalePioneers said:May has really surprised me - a massive recasting of government and a massive power shift away from the Cameroons. Surely they can't be happy?
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The threshold in the first Scottish referendum didn't really work out well in the long run. From the point of view of the people who imposed it.kle4 said:
Yes. But politically unviable to ignore without a competing democratic mandate, which it is also politically difficult to justify or enact. A threshold for referendums on big issues like these is not inherently a bad idea, many places have some sort of threshold, and conversely it might be a good idea to have a rule about not holding reruns within a certain time period.Toms said:
So this referendum was advisory only?RobD said:
The AV referendum was binding, this one was not. They parliament did vote to hold a referendum though, so would be stupid to ignore it.Toms said:
Seriously, and please forgive my ignorance, but is not the Commons the only, final, arbiter in British law? Or did Parliament actually approve the referendum to start with? If it was Cameron's choice, or even that of the Tory party, then sod that.Pulpstar said:
Second brexitToms said:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215AndyJS said:Owen Smith calls for a second referendum because many voters "now regret their decision".
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-candidate-vows-second-vote-on-brexit-n79bxds9z
So either approach, to permit or prevent a second referendum might be good ideas, but neither was in place, so one could be held in theory. But in reality it woukd be next to impossible as things stand.0 -
Unless I'm mistake, GeoffM was quite openly pro-brexit in the run up to the vote.RobD said:
Also the avatar doesn't exactly paint him as particularly pro-EU....0 -
Really? So, though he proposed it, all that guff blaming Cameron holding the referendum from some is bollocks? As the other parties didn't try to prevent it and even voted for it to occur?Sunil_Prasannan said:The SNP were the only party to vote against the EU Referendum Act of 2015.
Passed by 544 votes to 53.
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I don't know, is the honest answer. I am fairly sure we will not get all we want, I have seldom been in negotiations where that has happened - there are two sides after all. However, I am equally sure that some of the doomsayers on here are being too pessimistic. The UK does have a rather stronger hand than some seem to acknowledge. If, God forbid, I were sitting at the table it is not a hand that I would be nervous of playing, I doubt I'd get a slam but 4 spades seems eminently doable.FF43 said:
Possibly more imagination than other people, but let's not quibble. Do you think David Davis will pull off a smart, clean and high calibre Brexit?HurstLlama said:
Full respect, old porpoise, but if that is all you can suggest then you might want to expand your imagination a tad.FF43 said:
All I can suggest is that May agrees a timetable with agreed milestones with Davis, which she will pull at the first sign of deviation. You said fire Article 50 on this date. You said EU partners are rational and would agree to full access on services and no FOM. We're at that date now. Are they rational? Have they agreed? If not, you don't know what you are talking about and you're out.Cyclefree said:
If Brexit turns out to be a disaster, May will own this, regardless of whether the mess was created by the 3 Brexiteers. She's in charge now. So she had better make it clear to them what vision of Brexit she has and make sure they do their best to get it. And the Merkels of this world are going to want to deal with the organ grinder, not the monkeys - whatever their titles.jonny83 said:
[Snipped]
I think this is more about making sure that while the negotiations are going on the Brexiteers can't snipe at her and, if what is arrived at is not to the liking of some of them, of having the necessary cover.
What is more interesting to me is how Hammond will work them. He is the one who will want to ensure that any deal does not eff up the economy so badly. In the end if it does that will do for May and him and the Tories' chances at the next election. So he should want to make sure that he gets the right input into any deal. Whether he will or not is another matter.0 -
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)0 -
And Richard "the Sage" Nabavi.Sunil_Prasannan said:
TSE won't be happy with thatgrabcocque said:RIP Osborne. RIP Osborne's inner circle. RIP Osborneism. RIP anyone who'd ever even look at George Osborne.
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Popcorntastic:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 27m27 minutes ago
Mike Foster's legal action against Labour NEC decision that Corbyn automatically on ballot paper will be heard High Court last week in July0 -
It says 45% were from the EU, so a similar split of EU/non-EU to the UK.surbiton said:Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.
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Amusing? It doesn't even scan. People are still grieving I suppose.AnneJGP said:
That's an amusing line, but wouldn't it have been seen as trying to negate the referendum outcome if Ms May had appointed Remain-leaning people?CarlottaVance said:
They are a dwindling band of yesterdays men.....and Cameron will be personally loyal - so I doubt they'll get up to much mischief. Quite a skilful redeployment of the talents - if you BREXIT you own it.....RochdalePioneers said:May has really surprised me - a massive recasting of government and a massive power shift away from the Cameroons. Surely they can't be happy?
I'm with @Topping in that the glam factor is reduced (modulo Boris). This is a cabinet full of experience. I don't really care who voted Remain/Leave. They all have a lot to do. Its execution that matters. I can't see May being as forgiving as Cameron, so hopefully that will concentrate minds.0 -
Ah - GDP that true measure of the average voter's financial status...surbiton said:
Brilliant. The economy will get a boost for years to come. Despite their Muslim background, they will vote CDU when they are eligible. Shrewd Merkel.John_M said:Germany sets new records. 2.14 million migrants in 2015.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-germany-idUSKCN0ZU1ZD?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Feed:+Reuters/worldNews+(Reuters+World+News)0 -
I see 'Project make up big numbers' is still in full swingsarissa said:
And it will apparently be £6.5+ billion for the Norway EFTA/EEA solution - no rebate, rememberSunil_Prasannan said:
We are net contributors the EU, remember? To the tune of £8.5 billion in 2015.Scott_P said:
Where in the post does it say "EU money" ?Sunil_Prasannan said:Repeat after me:
"There is no such thing as "EU Money". There is only taxpayers' money!"
It says subsidy, which is the key point...0 -
Well with the size of their majority they will have tojonny83 said:Some interesting choices and perhaps some questionable ones as well. She has the power and the right to choose who she wants and she is clearly stamping her authority in line with her vision for the future. Have to see how it plays out.
The Boris/Fox/Davis triumvirate for me has potential disaster written all over it. They will have to work together on some pats of the negotiations you would think and all three of them might have a different vision for a post UK brexit. On the one hand May might think Brexit is your mess deal with it and if any of those right wing backbenchers kick up a fuss she can just say well I gave your lot the power to sort it out. But on the other hand if it doesn't work out she could still take damage from it, people will question her judgement.
Apart from the Boris decision Hunt remaining in post is probably the most surprising to me. I've been largely supportive of Hunt during the industrial action with the Junior Doctors and now feel it's time to impose the contract. But May could have taken the easy option and delivered a fresh start in replacing him but didn't. I have no doubt the doctors will not take this decision well but they have their own political agenda and nothing may please them.
Osborne? He could come back at some point from this but he will have to want to remain an MP. I would imagine some financial institutions will be looking at his political future with interest. Maybe he will decide he is done with Politics.
Some really big beasts and talented people on the backbenches, I can't imagine Cameron/Osborne/Gove sitting together lol0 -
She's facing 2016 Labour. If at any point the majority becomes a critical issue, call an election.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Cocque, that may be an error by May.
If she'd peeled off Osborne's lieutenants, he'd be not quite alone on the backbenches, but diminished. As it is, he and his followers (or ex-followers) far exceed the Conservative majority. It's possible she'll be fine. It's possible she's made the Morsi Mistake.0 -
Imagine a member of the 2015 intake suddenly being given a government job.Richard_Nabavi said:
From the 2015ers, Chris Philp, perhaps?JohnO said:But more fun (and insights) for the second and third tier of junior Ministers. Could any of last year's intake get their first mits around the greasy pole? Or the overlooked from 2010?
PREPOSTEROUS.0 -
The courts need to catch up, politics now moves way too fast for us to wait that long!rottenborough said:Popcorntastic:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 27m27 minutes ago
Mike Foster's legal action against Labour NEC decision that Corbyn automatically on ballot paper will be heard High Court last week in July0 -
In the unlikely event of the NHS getting an extra £350m a week it still wouldn't be enough for some.GeoffM said:
The NHS is a bottomless pit of incompetence, mismanagement and corruption.Pong said:How's Jeremy Hunt going to spend is extra £18.2bn a year?
It'd disappear without a ripple.
We'll all be £4300 worse off soon anyway so hospitals will be full of people with malnutrition.0 -
This is beginning to look like a coup at the top of the Conservative Party. The plebs are in charge now. Only the bumbling idiot is the token rep.0
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I think Osborne will support the government to which he'll eventually return - hopefully after a successful Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Cocque, that may be an error by May.
If she'd peeled off Osborne's lieutenants, he'd be not quite alone on the backbenches, but diminished. As it is, he and his followers (or ex-followers) far exceed the Conservative majority. It's possible she'll be fine. It's possible she's made the Morsi Mistake.0 -
So you'd expect roughly 10 ex public school not 4.HYUFD said:
The Tory share ex public school is now about 50% and the Commons about 20 to 30%Philip_Thompson said:
I suspect the Commons let alone the Tory share of it is not 7% so that's not surely the right figure to use.HYUFD said:
Fallon, Hunt, Johnson, Rudd all ex public school and a higher percentage of the Cabinet than the 7% nationallyPhilip_Thompson said:Is it truly egalitarian if there are hardly any former public schoolboys and schoolgirls there? You'd think if it was truly egalitarian, based on merit that there would be some. Penalising people for their parents choices is not egalitarian.
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