As far as he is concerned, he has the overwhelming support of the membership - and thus the damage to unity comes from 172 traitors in the PLP
I'll say it again, even if he isn't on the ballot paper, 300,000+ members will write CORBYN on the ballot - and vote for it. Whoever is declared the "winner" will have no authority - except over the MPs. Who will all be deselected. Pretty much the entire Labour Party in Westminster will be different after the next election - except those who were prepared to nominate Jeremy.
It's possible. But honestly I really don't think it's going to happen. I honestly don't think the vast majority of the 300,000 really will care that much. They'll move on.
Move on to a breakaway party.
Why the need to form an existing one? They have plenty of choice:
Electoral groups[edit] Alliance for Green Socialism Class War Communist League Communist Party of Britain Respect Party Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers' Revolutionary Party Groups working within TUSC[edit] Further information: Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Party (England and Wales) Socialist Workers Party Non-electoral groups[edit] Anti-revisionists[edit] Further information: Anti-revisionism Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) New Communist Party of Britain Revolutionary Communist Group Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Spartacist League Others[edit] Anarchist Federation Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) Communist Workers Organisation International Socialist League Independent Working Class Association World Revolution Solidarity Federation Workers' Fight Groups working within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Left Unity (UK) Alliance for Workers Liberty Left Unity Socialist Resistance Entryist groups within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Entryism Socialist Action Socialist Appeal Workers Power
Jezza is an unmitigated disaster for the Labour Party but I cannot read those rules in any way other than that he doesn't need to obtain signatures. This will get nasty.
Agreed. Don't get the assumption that the courts will concur with the NEC
Any common sense reading of the rules finds in Jezbollah's favour. But IANAL and maybe there is some precedent which assists Labour.
The Kinnock Precedent and the Collins Review.
Big wirdz that have no application to the question...
If he's denied a place on the ballot, will he and 15 other Labour MPs resign their seats in the Commons? They can't just take this lying down, surely.
That will be a small price to pay in comparison to what could happen if Corbyn wins the leadership again.
Yeah, along with most of the Labour membership, and atleast half of Labour's current vote. That's what the PLP are prepared to let happen if it means they get one of "their own" installed.
You seriously think that half of Labour's current vote would walk away if Corbyn were not leader?
What sane person with an ounce of foresight or understanding would want to become Labour leader right now in such circumstances?
I've levelled up to zero on Angela Eagle.
This is a complete hospital pass. Who else will want it ?
Be a step up, from where he presently is, for T.Blair.
I tend to agree with those who think the rules do not require the person being challenged, that is the incumbent, to be nominated but ffs, how can you possibly lead the party in Parliament when 3/4 have already passed a no confidence motion in you and 50 are not prepared to back you? This is through the looking glass, it really is.
Having briefly gone undercover to mingle with Momentum's pixie people, I think the idea is that Labour need to replace the MPs, in order to better reflect the views of the members.
@DannyShawBBC: This is significant: @JBrokenshire says it would be "virtually impossible" to remove EU citizens who've been in the UK for at least 5 years
With respect, have you actually spoken to (m)any Leave Labour voters?
Immigration was one of the big factors (although on that score, Corbyn and the PLP "moderates" are exactly the same, since the PLP still want to stay in the EU and keep freedom of movement anyway). But other big factors were how much people hated the "career/Establishment politicians" who were leading the Remain campaign, how people were sick of the economy screwing over the little guy, and just generally a scream for ANY change from the terrible status quo. If Labour goes back to a career politician, not promising any real changes from the status quo and sucking up to big businesses, with their main campaigning issues being total fringe issues like feminism, it follows to expect it to fare similarly to the Remain campaign which also based its platform on that.
But the PLP "moderates" probably know all that secretly, and they're not even bothering to CLAIM they would be more electable than Corbyn anymore - all they want is to preserve their own ideology even if that comes at the cost of a Remain-style electoral meltdown.
Yes, I have. Most of my family votes Labour. I know Labour, Conservative, and even UKIP leavers. All of whom voted leave because of immigration. All of whom saw the economic problems affecting them, and potentially their children as connected to immigration. Did they dislike career politicians? Yes. But that's voters from all politcal parties, tbqh. Not just Labour. This isn't about going back to a career politician leading Labour. This isn't about installing a Blairite as the new Labour leader. This is about getting someone in - regardless of whether they are from the soft left of the party, or the right - who actually cares about winning elections. Who sees Labour as a political party, and not some meaningless social movement. Who takes into account the views of the membership, but does not hold the entire party hostage to each and everyone of their views. PLP moderates want to preserve the Labour party, as do the rest of the PLP. What they do not want is Leftist militants taking over the party, because once that happens there is no going back anymore.
I might've agreed the PLP had good intentions a while ago (after all, I voted for one of the PLP's own in a leadership election just a year ago), but I'm not that naive anymore.
If the PLP were really concerned about getting Labour elected, they would not be calling for Labour to base their strategy on the main planks of the Remain Campaign, they would not be pushing forward a complete charisma vacuum like Angela Eagle who will NEVER be seen as a potential PM by the public, and they would not be trying to actively split the party as much as they are now. They are only concerned with their own ideological purity, as much as the hard left is.
As far as he is concerned, he has the overwhelming support of the membership - and thus the damage to unity comes from 172 traitors in the PLP
I'll say it again, even if he isn't on the ballot paper, 300,000+ members will write CORBYN on the ballot - and vote for it. Whoever is declared the "winner" will have no authority - except over the MPs. Who will all be deselected. Pretty much the entire Labour Party in Westminster will be different after the next election - except those who were prepared to nominate Jeremy.
It's possible. But honestly I really don't think it's going to happen. I honestly don't think the vast majority of the 300,000 really will care that much. They'll move on.
Move on to a breakaway party.
Why the need to form an existing one? They have plenty of choice:
Electoral groups[edit] Alliance for Green Socialism Class War Communist League Communist Party of Britain Respect Party Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers' Revolutionary Party Groups working within TUSC[edit] Further information: Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Party (England and Wales) Socialist Workers Party Non-electoral groups[edit] Anti-revisionists[edit] Further information: Anti-revisionism Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) New Communist Party of Britain Revolutionary Communist Group Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Spartacist League Others[edit] Anarchist Federation Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) Communist Workers Organisation International Socialist League Independent Working Class Association World Revolution Solidarity Federation Workers' Fight Groups working within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Left Unity (UK) Alliance for Workers Liberty Left Unity Socialist Resistance Entryist groups within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Entryism Socialist Action Socialist Appeal Workers Power
With the exception of 'Spartacist League', these are all terrible, terrible band names.
@DannyShawBBC: This is significant: @JBrokenshire says it would be "virtually impossible" to remove EU citizens who've been in the UK for at least 5 years
Jezza is an unmitigated disaster for the Labour Party but I cannot read those rules in any way other than that he doesn't need to obtain signatures. This will get nasty.
The courts will back the NEC. The storm will die down in a few months...
The courts will say it is the internal matter of the Labour Party. Therefore, whatever, NEC says , goes.
Which implies the Courts can't make judgement on any contract law, since it is an internal matter to the contracting parties.
No, it means the courts can't make judgements on contract law when the contract defines who the separate arbitration panel is for resolving disputes.
Most contractees would not be stupid enough to choose a nakedly political outfit as the impartial arbitrators, but this is the Labour Party we are talking about.
Does this mean the NEC could interpret any article in the Labour rules as it wants to, as long as there is a challenge? Could it interpret 46 nominations as meaning 92 nominations, as long as the majority voted that way?
As if the EU encapsulates Labour moderates' whole view. Where on earth is the basis for this exactly? As I said before the very reason why Labour voters voted for Brexit is because of concerns regarding freedom of movement. The man you claim is close to Labour voters' political perspective is incredibly pro-freedom of movement and has far more left-wing views, than even the socially liberal PLP that you claim is miles away from the average Labour voter. As for Labour voters, back in April 2015 polls showed Ed Miliband scoring as a 81% of Labour voters 'approving' of him. Does it mean 81% of Labour voters would walk away from the party if Labour had deposed of Ed Miliband? No, it doesn't in my opinion. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vojtflusz6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-180415.pdf#page=3
With respect, have you actually spoken to (m)any Leave Labour voters?
Immigration was one of the big factors (although on that score, Corbyn and the PLP "moderates" are exactly the same, since the PLP still want to stay in the EU and keep freedom of movement anyway). But other big factors were how much people hated the "career/Establishment politicians" who were leading the Remain campaign, how people were sick of the economy screwing over the little guy, and just generally a scream for ANY change from the terrible status quo. If Labour goes back to a career politician, not promising any real changes from the status quo and sucking up to big businesses, with their main campaigning issues being total fringe issues like feminism, it follows to expect it to fare similarly to the Remain campaign which also based its platform on that.
But the PLP "moderates" probably know all that secretly, and they're not even bothering to CLAIM they would be more electable than Corbyn anymore - all they want is to preserve their own ideology even if that comes at the cost of a Remain-style electoral meltdown.
No, what they want is for Labour to continue being a party whose primary focus is on winning power through parliamentary elections. There is nothing else that unites the broad band of Labour MPs who are from all parts of the party, except the hard left (and maybe Andy Burnham)
They are the establishment. They represent themselves.
IF Labour succeed in ousting Jez, what chance half their members depart, along with half the unions...
Leaving the party bankrupt?
A lot more than half the members, and atleast half of their current voters, IMO.
And yet we're supposed to believe the PLP are concerned about "electability rather than ideology", when they're happy to have a party without its members/voters/funding, led by Angela Eagle.
One problem with a radical shakeup of the cabinet that seems to be getting overlooked is Mays very small majority. She really can't afford to have a disgruntled dozen sitting on the back benches, not if she is wanting to pass any legislation anyway.
And that dozen were being organised by Osborne....
Jezza is an unmitigated disaster for the Labour Party but I cannot read those rules in any way other than that he doesn't need to obtain signatures. This will get nasty.
Agreed. Don't get the assumption that the courts will concur with the NEC
Any common sense reading of the rules finds in Jezbollah's favour. But IANAL and maybe there is some precedent which assists Labour.
I am a lawyer (well, was - but lawyer is a tag that follows you to the grave, like murderer...) but I also cannot read those rules in any way other than that he doesn't need to obtain signatures.
I tend to agree with those who think the rules do not require the person being challenged, that is the incumbent, to be nominated but ffs, how can you possibly lead the party in Parliament when 3/4 have already passed a no confidence motion in you and 50 are not prepared to back you? This is through the looking glass, it really is.
Yup we are on the cusp of the Judean People's Front and the Popular Front of Judea. Soon someone will pick up a sandal and another a gourd to venerate. Pythonesque doesn't come close.
As if the EU encapsulates Labour moderates' whole view. Where on earth is the basis for this exactly? As I said before the very reason why Labour voters voted for Brexit is because of concerns regarding freedom of movement. The man you claim is close to Labour voters' political perspective is incredibly pro-freedom of movement and has far more left-wing views, than even the socially liberal PLP that you claim is miles away from the average Labour voter. As for Labour voters, back in April 2015 polls showed Ed Miliband scoring as a 81% of Labour voters 'approving' of him. Does it mean 81% of Labour voters would walk away from the party if Labour had deposed of Ed Miliband? No, it doesn't in my opinion. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vojtflusz6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-180415.pdf#page=3
With respect, have you actually spoken to (m)any Leave Labour voters?
Immigration was one of the big factors (although on that score, Corbyn and the PLP "moderates" are exactly the same, since the PLP still want to stay in the EU and keep freedom of movement anyway). But other big factors were how much people hated the "career/Establishment politicians" who were leading the Remain campaign, how people were sick of the economy screwing over the little guy, and just generally a scream for ANY change from the terrible status quo. If Labour goes back to a career politician, not promising any real changes from the status quo and sucking up to big businesses, with their main campaigning issues being total fringe issues like feminism, it follows to expect it to fare similarly to the Remain campaign which also based its platform on that.
But the PLP "moderates" probably know all that secretly, and they're not even bothering to CLAIM they would be more electable than Corbyn anymore - all they want is to preserve their own ideology even if that comes at the cost of a Remain-style electoral meltdown.
No, what they want is for Labour to continue being a party whose primary focus is on winning power through parliamentary elections. There is nothing else that unites the broad band of Labour MPs who are from all parts of the party, except the hard left (and maybe Andy Burnham)
They are the establishment. They represent themselves.
+1. Apart from the brand name and the slowly fading voting habits of a slowly ageing generation, they have nothing to offer except ambition on a stick.
IF Labour succeed in ousting Jez, what chance half their members depart, along with half the unions...
Leaving the party bankrupt?
A lot more than half the members, and atleast half of their current voters, IMO.
And yet we're supposed to believe the PLP are concerned about "electability rather than ideology", when they're happy to have a party without its members/voters/funding, led by Angela Eagle.
The members might leave, but that is what the PLP wants! The voters don't care enough...
Incidentally, the secret ballot can swing both ways.
Imagine you're on the NEC. If Corbyn wins, no reprisals. If he loses, people will wonder who voted this way or that. Which situation would make you feel more comfortable, in terms of personal safety?
@DannyShawBBC: This is significant: @JBrokenshire says it would be "virtually impossible" to remove EU citizens who've been in the UK for at least 5 years
As if the EU encapsulates Labour moderates' whole view. Where on earth is the basis for this exactly? As I said before the very reason why Labour voters voted for Brexit is because of concerns regarding freedom of movement. The man you claim is close to Labour voters' political perspective is incredibly pro-freedom of movement and has far more left-wing views, than even the socially liberal PLP that you claim is miles away from the average Labour voter. As for Labour voters, back in April 2015 polls showed Ed Miliband scoring as a 81% of Labour voters 'approving' of him. Does it mean 81% of Labour voters would walk away from the party if Labour had deposed of Ed Miliband? No, it doesn't in my opinion. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vojtflusz6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-180415.pdf#page=3
With respect, have you actually spoken to (m)any Leave Labour voters?
Immigration was one of the big factors (although on that score, Corbyn and the PLP "moderates" are exactly the same, since the PLP still want to stay in the EU and keep freedom of movement anyway). But other big factors were how much people hated the "career/Establishment politicians" who were leading the Remain campaign, how people were sick of the economy screwing over the little guy, and just generally a scream for ANY change from the terrible status quo. If Labour goes back to a career politician, not promising any real changes from the status quo and sucking up to big businesses, with their main campaigning issues being total fringe issues like feminism, it follows to expect it to fare similarly to the Remain campaign which also based its platform on that.
But the PLP "moderates" probably know all that secretly, and they're not even bothering to CLAIM they would be more electable than Corbyn anymore - all they want is to preserve their own ideology even if that comes at the cost of a Remain-style electoral meltdown.
No, what they want is for Labour to continue being a party whose primary focus is on winning power through parliamentary elections. There is nothing else that unites the broad band of Labour MPs who are from all parts of the party, except the hard left (and maybe Andy Burnham)
They are the establishment. They represent themselves.
IF Labour succeed in ousting Jez, what chance half their members depart, along with half the unions...
Leaving the party bankrupt?
I don't think the unions will desert them, for sure they will grumble for a bit and not be happy but they will stick by the party. Membership losses will be big but if they are losing those Momentum scum it's a price worth paying in the short-term, there is always a chance some of the moderates will stay and some might even rejoin the party.
If Labour can get a credible leader on a center ground platform they could get investment from business or wealthy donors again especially if the economy really tanks and the conservative government struggles.
Getting rid of Jez and the aftermath shortly after is going to painful I would imagine for Labour but it's short-term pain for long-term gain.
One problem with a radical shakeup of the cabinet that seems to be getting overlooked is Mays very small majority. She really can't afford to have a disgruntled dozen sitting on the back benches, not if she is wanting to pass any legislation anyway.
And that dozen were being organised by Osborne....
Very unlikely that constructing her govt as she sees fit will of itself provoke discontent. Only people to get snarky will be those who lack self-awareness and hold a higher opinion of themselves than is justified by objective assessment!
Incidentally, the secret ballot can swing both ways.
Imagine you're on the NEC. If Corbyn wins, no reprisals. If he loses, people will wonder who voted this way or that. Which situation would make you feel more comfortable, in terms of personal safety?
IF Labour succeed in ousting Jez, what chance half their members depart, along with half the unions...
Leaving the party bankrupt?
A lot more than half the members, and atleast half of their current voters, IMO.
And yet we're supposed to believe the PLP are concerned about "electability rather than ideology", when they're happy to have a party without its members/voters/funding, led by Angela Eagle.
No, they are concerned about Labour being a party that seeks power through Parliamentary elections.
I might've agreed the PLP had good intentions a while ago (after all, I voted for one of the PLP's own in a leadership election just a year ago), but I'm not that naive anymore.
If the PLP were really concerned about getting Labour elected, they would not be calling for Labour to base their strategy on the main planks of the Remain Campaign, they would not be pushing forward a complete charisma vacuum like Angela Eagle who will NEVER be seen as a potential PM by the public, and they would not be trying to actively split the party as much as they are now. They are only concerned with their own ideological purity, as much as the hard left is.
It's not about being naive, it's the truth. Angela Eagle is being put forward at this stage not because she'll win a GE but because at least under her the Labour party will SURVIVE. The Labour party as we know it will still be one committed to gaining power through parliamentary democracy. That will NOT be the case if Corbyn's leadership continues. As I stressed before in previous posts, this is no longer about even winning the next GE anymore. This is about the SURVIVAL of a political party. Cameroonian Tories also supported the Remain campaign: that does not mean they do not care about the Tories' electability. Indeed for a long period, it looked as though Remain would win. The PLP are not trying to split the party - they are trying to avoid splitting Labour by getting rid of Corbyn. If Corbyn stays on that is what will cause a split.
This is not about 'ideological purity'. If that was the case, a cross section of PLP with various different views that depart from the so-called 'centre-ground' would not want Corbyn gone.
As far as he is concerned, he has the overwhelming support of the membership - and thus the damage to unity comes from 172 traitors in the PLP
I'll say it again, even if he isn't on the ballot paper, 300,000+ members will write CORBYN on the ballot - and vote for it. Whoever is declared the "winner" will have no authority - except over the MPs. Who will all be deselected. Pretty much the entire Labour Party in Westminster will be different after the next election - except those who were prepared to nominate Jeremy.
It's possible. But honestly I really don't think it's going to happen. I honestly don't think the vast majority of the 300,000 really will care that much. They'll move on.
Move on to a breakaway party.
Why the need to form an existing one? They have plenty of choice:
Electoral groups[edit] Alliance for Green Socialism Class War Communist League Communist Party of Britain Respect Party Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers' Revolutionary Party Groups working within TUSC[edit] Further information: Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Party (England and Wales) Socialist Workers Party Non-electoral groups[edit] Anti-revisionists[edit] Further information: Anti-revisionism Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) New Communist Party of Britain Revolutionary Communist Group Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Spartacist League Others[edit] Anarchist Federation Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) Communist Workers Organisation International Socialist League Independent Working Class Association World Revolution Solidarity Federation Workers' Fight Groups working within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Left Unity (UK) Alliance for Workers Liberty Left Unity Socialist Resistance Entryist groups within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Entryism Socialist Action Socialist Appeal Workers Power
The Anarchist Federation sounds a bit, well...too organised for anarchists?
Jezza is an unmitigated disaster for the Labour Party but I cannot read those rules in any way other than that he doesn't need to obtain signatures. This will get nasty.
The courts will back the NEC. The storm will die down in a few months...
The courts will say it is the internal matter of the Labour Party. Therefore, whatever, NEC says , goes.
Which implies the Courts can't make judgement on any contract law, since it is an internal matter to the contracting parties.
No, it means the courts can't make judgements on contract law when the contract defines who the separate arbitration panel is for resolving disputes.
Most contractees would not be stupid enough to choose a nakedly political outfit as the impartial arbitrators, but this is the Labour Party we are talking about.
They can and do.
I am embarrassed to say I have done a few judicial reviews of disciplinary proceedings in golf clubs and the courts had no problem with it. There is Scottish precedent for the Labour Party being taken to court over its internal disciplinary procedures and the application of natural justice. The courts will have no problem in getting involved in this. Corbyn has clear title and interest.
As if the EU encapsulates Labour moderates' whole view. Where on earth is the basis for this exactly? As I said before the very reason why Labour voters voted for Brexit is because of concerns regarding freedom of movement. The man you claim is close to Labour voters' political perspective is incredibly pro-freedom of movement and has far more left-wing views, than even the socially liberal PLP that you claim is miles away from the average Labour voter. As for Labour voters, back in April 2015 polls showed Ed Miliband scoring as a 81% of Labour voters 'approving' of him. Does it mean 81% of Labour voters would walk away from the party if Labour had deposed of Ed Miliband? No, it doesn't in my opinion. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vojtflusz6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-180415.pdf#page=3
With respect, have you actually spoken to (m)any Leave Labour voters?
Immigration was one of the big factors (although on that score, Corbyn and the PLP "moderates" are exactly the same, since the PLP still want to stay in the EU and keep freedom of movement anyway). But other big factors were how much people hated the "career/Establishment politicians" who were leading the Remain campaign, how people were sick of the economy screwing over the little guy, and just generally a scream for ANY change from the terrible status quo. If Labour goes back to a career politician, not promising any real changes from the status quo and sucking up to big businesses, with their main campaigning issues being total fringe issues like feminism, it follows to expect it to fare similarly to the Remain campaign which also based its platform on that.
But the PLP "moderates" probably know all that secretly, and they're not even bothering to CLAIM they would be more electable than Corbyn anymore - all they want is to preserve their own ideology even if that comes at the cost of a Remain-style electoral meltdown.
No, what they want is for Labour to continue being a party whose primary focus is on winning power through parliamentary elections. There is nothing else that unites the broad band of Labour MPs who are from all parts of the party, except the hard left (and maybe Andy Burnham)
They are the establishment. They represent themselves.
The NEC will still back Corbyn I think. I would still be surprised if they pull it off. We shall see.
If NEC members vote to keep their votes secret and then the same member(s) vote to keep Corbyn in the ballot, things have taken yet another bizarre and unexpected twist..
Incidentally, the secret ballot can swing both ways.
Imagine you're on the NEC. If Corbyn wins, no reprisals. If he loses, people will wonder who voted this way or that. Which situation would make you feel more comfortable, in terms of personal safety?
If NEC splits 17-15 against Corbyn on the ballot, I guess assumptions will be made.
IF Labour succeed in ousting Jez, what chance half their members depart, along with half the unions...
Leaving the party bankrupt?
I don't think the unions will desert them, for sure they will grumble for a bit and not be happy but they will stick by the party. Membership losses will be big but if they are losing those Momentum scum it's a price worth paying in the short-term, there is always a chance some of the moderates will stay and some might even rejoin the party.
If Labour can get a credible leader on a center ground platform they could get investment from business or wealthy donors again especially if the economy really tanks and the conservative government struggles.
Getting rid of Jez and the aftermath shortly after is going to painful I would imagine for Labour but it's short-term pain for long-term gain.
Even at Blair's pomp, Labour didn't get THAT much funding from big businesses.
Without the unions and the activists in the constituencies, there would never have been a Labour government, no matter how "centrist" the leadership was.
With respect, have you actually spoken to (m)any Leave Labour voters?
Immigration was one of the big factors (although on that score, Corbyn and the PLP "moderates" are exactly the same, since the PLP still want to stay in the EU and keep freedom of movement anyway). But other big factors were how much people hated the "career/Establishment politicians" who were leading the Remain campaign, how people were sick of the economy screwing over the little guy, and just generally a scream for ANY change from the terrible status quo. If Labour goes back to a career politician, not promising any real changes from the status quo and sucking up to big businesses, with their main campaigning issues being total fringe issues like feminism, it follows to expect it to fare similarly to the Remain campaign which also based its platform on that.
But the PLP "moderates" probably know all that secretly, and they're not even bothering to CLAIM they would be more electable than Corbyn anymore - all they want is to preserve their own ideology even if that comes at the cost of a Remain-style electoral meltdown.
Yes, I have. militants taking over the party, because once that happens there is no going back anymore.
I might've agreed the PLP had good intentions a while ago (after all, I voted for one of the PLP's own in a leadership election just a year ago), but I'm not that naive anymore.
If the PLP were really concerned about getting Labour elected, they would not be calling for Labour to base their strategy on the main planks of the Remain Campaign, they would not be pushing forward a complete charisma vacuum like Angela Eagle who will NEVER be seen as a potential PM by the public, and they would not be trying to actively split the party as much as they are now. They are only concerned with their own ideological purity, as much as the hard left is.
Nope - they are concerned with Labour continuing to be a party that seeks power through Parliament. There is nothing else that unites them. But that is a pretty fundamental point.
As far as he is concerned, he has the overwhelming support of the membership - and thus the damage to unity comes from 172 traitors in the PLP
I'll say it again, even if he isn't on the ballot paper, 300,000+ members will write CORBYN on the ballot - and vote for it. Whoever is declared the "winner" will have no authority - except over the MPs. Who will all be deselected. Pretty much the entire Labour Party in Westminster will be different after the next election - except those who were prepared to nominate Jeremy.
It's possible. But honestly I really don't think it's going to happen. I honestly don't think the vast majority of the 300,000 really will care that much. They'll move on.
Move on to a breakaway party.
Why the need to form an existing one? They have plenty of choice:
Electoral groups[edit] Alliance for Green Socialism Class War Communist League Communist Party of Britain Respect Party Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers' Revolutionary Party Groups working within TUSC[edit] Further information: Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Party (England and Wales) Socialist Workers Party Non-electoral groups[edit] Anti-revisionists[edit] Further information: Anti-revisionism Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) New Communist Party of Britain Revolutionary Communist Group Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Spartacist League Others[edit] Anarchist Federation Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) Communist Workers Organisation International Socialist League Independent Working Class Association World Revolution Solidarity Federation Workers' Fight Groups working within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Left Unity (UK) Alliance for Workers Liberty Left Unity Socialist Resistance Entryist groups within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Entryism Socialist Action Socialist Appeal Workers Power
The Anarchist Federation sounds a bit, well...too organised for anarchists?
Quite a lot of those groups strike me as oxymorons.
As far as he is concerned, he has the overwhelming support of the membership - and thus the damage to unity comes from 172 traitors in the PLP
I'll say it again, even if he isn't on the ballot paper, 300,000+ members will write CORBYN on the ballot - and vote for it. Whoever is declared the "winner" will have no authority - except over the MPs. Who will all be deselected. Pretty much the entire Labour Party in Westminster will be different after the next election - except those who were prepared to nominate Jeremy.
It's possible. But honestly I really don't think it's going to happen. I honestly don't think the vast majority of the 300,000 really will care that much. They'll move on.
Move on to a breakaway party.
Why the need to form an existing one? They have plenty of choice:
Electoral groups[edit] Alliance for Green Socialism Class War Communist League Communist Party of Britain Respect Party Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers' Revolutionary Party Groups working within TUSC[edit] Further information: Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Party (England and Wales) Socialist Workers Party Non-electoral groups[edit] Anti-revisionists[edit] Further information: Anti-revisionism Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) New Communist Party of Britain Revolutionary Communist Group Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Spartacist League Others[edit] Anarchist Federation Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) Communist Workers Organisation International Socialist League Independent Working Class Association World Revolution Solidarity Federation Workers' Fight Groups working within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Left Unity (UK) Alliance for Workers Liberty Left Unity Socialist Resistance Entryist groups within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Entryism Socialist Action Socialist Appeal Workers Power
The Anarchist Federation sounds a bit, well...too organised for anarchists?
Quite a lot of those groups strike me as oxymorons.
The Socialist Workers Party largely consists of people who have never had a proper job for a start..
As far as he is concerned, he has the overwhelming support of the membership - and thus the damage to unity comes from 172 traitors in the PLP
I'll say it again, even if he isn't on the ballot paper, 300,000+ members will write CORBYN on the ballot - and vote for it. Whoever is declared the "winner" will have no authority - except over the MPs. Who will all be deselected. Pretty much the entire Labour Party in Westminster will be different after the next election - except those who were prepared to nominate Jeremy.
It's possible. But honestly I really don't think it's going to happen. I honestly don't think the vast majority of the 300,000 really will care that much. They'll move on.
Move on to a breakaway party.
Why the need to form an existing one? They have plenty of choice:
Electoral groups[edit] Alliance for Green Socialism Class War Communist League Communist Party of Britain Respect Party Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers' Revolutionary Party Groups working within TUSC[edit] Further information: Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Party (England and Wales) Socialist Workers Party Non-electoral groups[edit] Anti-revisionists[edit] Further information: Anti-revisionism Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) New Communist Party of Britain Revolutionary Communist Group Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Spartacist League Others[edit] Anarchist Federation Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) Communist Workers Organisation International Socialist League Independent Working Class Association World Revolution Solidarity Federation Workers' Fight Groups working within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Left Unity (UK) Alliance for Workers Liberty Left Unity Socialist Resistance Entryist groups within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Entryism Socialist Action Socialist Appeal Workers Power
The Anarchist Federation sounds a bit, well...too organised for anarchists?
Quite a lot of those groups strike me as oxymorons.
What do we want...Anarchy...when do we want it...well we will have to have a meeting about that, then take a democratic vote on the various options proposed....next Wednesday sound good about 8.30pm?
IF Labour succeed in ousting Jez, what chance half their members depart, along with half the unions...
Leaving the party bankrupt?
A lot more than half the members, and atleast half of their current voters, IMO.
And yet we're supposed to believe the PLP are concerned about "electability rather than ideology", when they're happy to have a party without its members/voters/funding, led by Angela Eagle.
The members might leave, but that is what the PLP wants! The voters don't care enough...
IF Labour succeed in ousting Jez, what chance half their members depart, along with half the unions...
Leaving the party bankrupt?
A lot more than half the members, and atleast half of their current voters, IMO.
And yet we're supposed to believe the PLP are concerned about "electability rather than ideology", when they're happy to have a party without its members/voters/funding, led by Angela Eagle.
The members might leave, but that is what the PLP wants! The voters don't care enough...
Yep. A chunk of angry members will quit, but voters will just be pleased they got rid of the old fool - if they care at all.
The problem is with the unions. What happens to Labour if they withhold funding.
The NEC will still back Corbyn I think. I would still be surprised if they pull it off. We shall see.
If NEC members vote to keep their votes secret and then the same member(s) vote to keep Corbyn in the ballot, things have taken yet another bizarre and unexpected twist..
That is what will happen, you can pretty much count on it. Labour is Labour, after all, and is programmed to take the wrong decision at just about every turn.
I might've agreed the PLP had good intentions a while ago (after all, I voted for one of the PLP's own in a leadership election just a year ago), but I'm not that naive anymore.
If the PLP were really concerned about getting Labour elected, they would not be calling for Labour to base their strategy on the main planks of the Remain Campaign, they would not be pushing forward a complete charisma vacuum like Angela Eagle who will NEVER be seen as a potential PM by the public, and they would not be trying to actively split the party as much as they are now. They are only concerned with their own ideological purity, as much as the hard left is.
It's not about being naive, it's the truth. Angela Eagle is being put forward at this stage not because she'll win a GE but because at least under her the Labour party will SURVIVE. The Labour party as we know it will still be one committed to gaining power through parliamentary democracy. That will NOT be the case if Corbyn's leadership continues. As I stressed before in previous posts, this is no longer about even winning the next GE anymore. This is about the SURVIVAL of a political party. Cameroonian Tories also supported the Remain campaign: that does not mean they do not care about the Tories' electability. Indeed for a long period, it looked as though Remain would win. The PLP are not trying to split the party - they are trying to avoid splitting Labour by getting rid of Corbyn. If Corbyn stays on that is what will cause a split.
This is not about 'ideological purity'. If that was the case, a cross section of PLP with various different views that depart from the so-called 'centre-ground' would not want Corbyn gone.
Why on earth would the party have a better chance of surviving with Angela Eagle than it would with Corbyn?
One problem with a radical shakeup of the cabinet that seems to be getting overlooked is Mays very small majority. She really can't afford to have a disgruntled dozen sitting on the back benches, not if she is wanting to pass any legislation anyway.
And that dozen were being organised by Osborne....
Very unlikely that constructing her govt as she sees fit will of itself provoke discontent. Only people to get snarky will be those who lack self-awareness and hold a higher opinion of themselves than is justified by objective assessment!
Even I am not forecasting that the whole parliamentary party will be after her. But her majority is small and it will constrain her.
As far as he is concerned, he has the overwhelming support of the membership - and thus the damage to unity comes from 172 traitors in the PLP
I'll say it again, even if he isn't on the ballot paper, 300,000+ members will write CORBYN on the ballot - and vote for it. Whoever is declared the "winner" will have no authority - except over the MPs. Who will all be deselected. Pretty much the entire Labour Party in Westminster will be different after the next election - except those who were prepared to nominate Jeremy.
It's possible. But honestly I really don't think it's going to happen. I honestly don't think the vast majority of the 300,000 really will care that much. They'll move on.
Move on to a breakaway party.
Why the need to form an existing one? They have plenty of choice:
Electoral groups[edit] Alliance for Green Socialism Class War Communist League Communist Party of Britain Respect Party Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers' Revolutionary Party Groups working within TUSC[edit] Further information: Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Party (England and Wales) Socialist Workers Party Non-electoral groups[edit] Anti-revisionists[edit] Further information: Anti-revisionism Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) New Communist Party of Britain Revolutionary Communist Group Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Spartacist League Others[edit] Anarchist Federation Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) Communist Workers Organisation International Socialist League Independent Working Class Association World Revolution Solidarity Federation Workers' Fight Groups working within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Left Unity (UK) Alliance for Workers Liberty Left Unity Socialist Resistance Entryist groups within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Entryism Socialist Action Socialist Appeal Workers Power
The Anarchist Federation sounds a bit, well...too organised for anarchists?
At least twenty dead in this italian train crash I see. Apparently both units were four carriage. The front two of one and the front carriage of the other have been obliterated.
I fear that, unless the trains were very lightly loaded there may be worse news to follow.
Politics in the last few weeks has been like watching 10 box sets of 20 episode-long series in a fortnight.
A few weeks ago I bought a box set of "1992" - subtitled "power and corruption go hand in hand" - which is, I am assured, a gripping Italian drama series about the turbulent politics of that year. "Fiction is never going to beat Italian history for sheer entertainment value", it says on the box. However British reality has, and I have not yet been able to tear myself away from events long enough to pop in the first DVD...
Incidentally, the secret ballot can swing both ways.
Imagine you're on the NEC. If Corbyn wins, no reprisals. If he loses, people will wonder who voted this way or that. Which situation would make you feel more comfortable, in terms of personal safety?
If NEC splits 17-15 against Corbyn on the ballot, I guess assumptions will be made.
As far as he is concerned, he has the overwhelming support of the membership - and thus the damage to unity comes from 172 traitors in the PLP
I'll say it again, even if he isn't on the ballot paper, 300,000+ members will write CORBYN on the ballot - and vote for it. Whoever is declared the "winner" will have no authority - except over the MPs. Who will all be deselected. Pretty much the entire Labour Party in Westminster will be different after the next election - except those who were prepared to nominate Jeremy.
It's possible. But honestly I really don't think it's going to happen. I honestly don't think the vast majority of the 300,000 really will care that much. They'll move on.
Move on to a breakaway party.
Why the need to form an existing one? They have plenty of choice:
Electoral groups[edit] Alliance for Green Socialism Class War Communist League Communist Party of Britain Respect Party Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Equality Party Socialist Labour Party Socialist Party of Great Britain Workers' Revolutionary Party Groups working within TUSC[edit] Further information: Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition Socialist Party (England and Wales) Socialist Workers Party Non-electoral groups[edit] Anti-revisionists[edit] Further information: Anti-revisionism Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist) New Communist Party of Britain Revolutionary Communist Group Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist) Spartacist League Others[edit] Anarchist Federation Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) Communist Workers Organisation International Socialist League Independent Working Class Association World Revolution Solidarity Federation Workers' Fight Groups working within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Left Unity (UK) Alliance for Workers Liberty Left Unity Socialist Resistance Entryist groups within Labour Party[edit] Further information: Entryism Socialist Action Socialist Appeal Workers Power
The Anarchist Federation sounds a bit, well...too organised for anarchists?
I think you missed a few.
International league of Trottosocialists. Peoples front of Judea Popular front of Judea Judean Liberation Front Judean Peoples Front (Splitters)
Incidentally, the secret ballot can swing both ways.
Imagine you're on the NEC. If Corbyn wins, no reprisals. If he loses, people will wonder who voted this way or that. Which situation would make you feel more comfortable, in terms of personal safety?
Incidentally, the secret ballot can swing both ways.
Imagine you're on the NEC. If Corbyn wins, no reprisals. If he loses, people will wonder who voted this way or that. Which situation would make you feel more comfortable, in terms of personal safety?
If NEC splits 17-15 against Corbyn on the ballot, I guess assumptions will be made.
At least twenty dead in this italian train crash I see. Apparently both units were four carriage. The front two of one and the front carriage of the other have been obliterated.
I fear that, unless the trains were very lightly loaded there may be worse news to follow.
It is a single track back country branch line, so hopefully the trains were not heavily loaded.
I might've agreed the PLP had good intentions a while ago (after all, I voted for one of the PLP's own in a leadership election just a year ago), but I'm not that naive anymore.
If the PLP were really concerned about getting Labour elected, they would not be calling for Labour to base their strategy on the main planks of the Remain Campaign, they would not be pushing forward a complete charisma vacuum like Angela Eagle who will NEVER be seen as a potential PM by the public, and they would not be trying to actively split the party as much as they are now. They are only concerned with their own ideological purity, as much as the hard left is.
It's not about being naive, it's the truth. Angela Eagle is being put forward at this stage not because she'll win a GE but because at least under her the Labour party will SURVIVE. The Labour party as we know it will still be one committed to gaining power through parliamentary democracy. That will NOT be the case if Corbyn's leadership continues. As I stressed before in previous posts, this is no longer about even winning the next GE anymore. This is about the SURVIVAL of a political party. Cameroonian Tories also supported the Remain campaign: that does not mean they do not care about the Tories' electability. Indeed for a long period, it looked as though Remain would win. The PLP are not trying to split the party - they are trying to avoid splitting Labour by getting rid of Corbyn. If Corbyn stays on that is what will cause a split.
This is not about 'ideological purity'. If that was the case, a cross section of PLP with various different views that depart from the so-called 'centre-ground' would not want Corbyn gone.
Why on earth would the party do better under Angela Eagle than it would under Corbyn?
Well, as I stated in my previous post Labour will still be a party which believes in parliamentary democracy. They won't be taken over by militant Leftists. Labour will still at some stage be able to win GEs again. If Corbyn stays, Labour will be taken over by the militant Left and will totally dead as a political force for decades, perhaps forever.
Incidentally, the secret ballot can swing both ways.
Imagine you're on the NEC. If Corbyn wins, no reprisals. If he loses, people will wonder who voted this way or that. Which situation would make you feel more comfortable, in terms of personal safety?
My thinking exactly.
True, but these are people who have fought their way up close to the top of the Labour party (aka machine politics central) that we are talking about, not members of the village parish council.
The NEC will still back Corbyn I think. I would still be surprised if they pull it off. We shall see.
A slim hope, but some hope.
The truth is @Jobabob I really don't like losing bets and I have 150 on Corbyn to see out the year
I get the feeling you've played all of the leader markets very poorly.
I value my Lab leadership book @ ~ £280 right now,
18 Nandy 2.7 Watson -7.1 D Miliband 1.8 Benn 10 McDonnell 1.5 Jarvis 5.7 Smith 0.2 Eagle 2 Other 10.5 Lewis 3.7 Ed Miliband 0.1 Chuka 0.1 Burnham
How is yours going ?
I've not played the Labour leadership market. I should do well tomorrow on the PM market (~£200), got paid a decent sum on Tory leader already (~£600). If Corbyn goes then I'll play the next Labour leadership market as they won't have to deal with crazy rules and entryists. If there is a 2016 election then I'll get a very nice payday as I got on the 16/1.
Politics in the last few weeks has been like watching 10 box sets of 20 episode-long series in a fortnight.
I've had such a busy first half of 2016 that my Cowley & Kavanagh General Election of 2015 book has sat on my bookshelf largely untouched since I ordered it in January, and I'm not sure I'm going to bother reading it now - so much has changed, it seems hardly worth bothering...!
Politics in the last few weeks has been like watching 10 box sets of 20 episode-long series in a fortnight.
I've been on the west coast of the US since the Brexit vote and have got used to waking up each day to a huge quantity of big political news to catch up with. Today's NEC shenanigans seem like an uneventful day in comparison with the last couple of weeks.
Politics in the last few weeks has been like watching 10 box sets of 20 episode-long series in a fortnight.
I've been on the west coast of the US since the Brexit vote and have got used to waking up each day to a huge quantity of big political news to catch up with. Today's NEC shenanigans seem like an uneventful day in comparison with the last couple of weeks.
I tend to agree with those who think the rules do not require the person being challenged, that is the incumbent, to be nominated but ffs, how can you possibly lead the party in Parliament when 3/4 have already passed a no confidence motion in you and 50 are not prepared to back you? This is through the looking glass, it really is.
You have to change the MPs to represent the members views. It will take a while but it's the only way.
Politics in the last few weeks has been like watching 10 box sets of 20 episode-long series in a fortnight.
I've been on the west coast of the US since the Brexit vote and have got used to waking up each day to a huge quantity of big political news to catch up with. Today's NEC shenanigans seem like an uneventful day in comparison with the last couple of weeks.
It is only early evening here, plenty more from NEC to come.
The NEC will still back Corbyn I think. I would still be surprised if they pull it off. We shall see.
A slim hope, but some hope.
The truth is @Jobabob I really don't like losing bets and I have 150 on Corbyn to see out the year
I get the feeling you've played all of the leader markets very poorly.
I value my Lab leadership book @ ~ £280 right now,
18 Nandy 2.7 Watson -7.1 D Miliband 1.8 Benn 10 McDonnell 1.5 Jarvis 5.7 Smith 0.2 Eagle 2 Other 10.5 Lewis 3.7 Ed Miliband 0.1 Chuka 0.1 Burnham
How is yours going ?
I've not played the Labour leadership market. I should do well tomorrow on the PM market (~£200), got paid a decent sum on Tory leader already. If Corbyn goes then I'll play the next Labour leadership market as they won't have to deal with crazy rules and entryists.
I think my net profit was about a hundred 50 quid on the Tories after all said and done (And next PM). As you say, poorly played - nowhere near my Trump book - can't win them all though.
@DannyShawBBC: This is significant: @JBrokenshire says it would be "virtually impossible" to remove EU citizens who've been in the UK for at least 5 years
I thought that anyone who has been legally resident in the UK for 5 years has the right to apply for a right to remain (and six years for citizenship).
So if Brexit is effective from 31 December 2018 say, anyone arriving in the UK from before 2014 would be able to remain?
So, suppose the NEC says Corbyn can't stand without nomination, which he won't get. Someone else gets elected. Corbyn takes the NEC to court but presumably that will drag on for months. Replacement well bedded in. Court eventually says rules are clear: no nominations are needed, therefore election invalid.
I might've agreed the PLP had good intentions a while ago (after all, I voted for one of the PLP's own in a leadership election just a year ago), but I'm not that naive anymore.
If the PLP were really concerned about getting Labour elected, they would not be calling for Labour to base their strategy on the main planks of the Remain Campaign, they would not be pushing forward a complete charisma vacuum like Angela Eagle who will NEVER be seen as a potential PM by the public, and they would not be trying to actively split the party as much as they are now. They are only concerned with their own ideological purity, as much as the hard left is.
It's not about being naive, it's the truth. Angela Eagle is being put forward at this stage not because she'll win a GE but because at least under her the Labour party will SURVIVE. The Labour party as we know it will still be one committed to gaining power through parliamentary democracy. That will NOT be the case if Corbyn's leadership continues. As I stressed before in previous posts, this is no longer about even winning the next GE anymore. This is about the SURVIVAL of a political party. Cameroonian Tories also supported the Remain campaign: that does not mean they do not care about the Tories' electability. Indeed for a long period, it looked as though Remain would win. The PLP are not trying to split the party - they are trying to avoid splitting Labour by getting rid of Corbyn. If Corbyn stays on that is what will cause a split.
This is not about 'ideological purity'. If that was the case, a cross section of PLP with various different views that depart from the so-called 'centre-ground' would not want Corbyn gone.
Why on earth would the party do better under Angela Eagle than it would under Corbyn?
Well, as I stated in my previous post Labour will still be a party which believes in parliamentary democracy. They won't be taken over by militant Leftists. Labour will still at some stage be able to win GEs again. If Corbyn stays, Labour will be taken over by the militant Left and will totally dead as a political force for decades, perhaps forever.
These are just assertions, without any reasoning to support them. WHY would Eagle mean Labour would at some stage be able to win GEs again? WHY would she win more seats in an election than Corbyn? She has less charisma than Corbyn, seems less of a plausible PM, is more of a hated "career politician" - once again, the Remain campaign being rejected in the Labour heartlands shows how successful she would be.
Mr. Rata, Corbyn was in the room, so he'll have an idea how people voted.
Mr. Observer, and it won't be just self-interest. I imagine many NEC members are friends, and may worry voting to keep Corbyn off the ballot may lead to their friends getting into uncomfortable situations.
Could go either way. But the rules, if adhered to, do seem pretty clear that Corbyn should be on the ballot.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Glenn, give it time. This is very significant stuff.
One problem with a radical shakeup of the cabinet that seems to be getting overlooked is Mays very small majority. She really can't afford to have a disgruntled dozen sitting on the back benches, not if she is wanting to pass any legislation anyway.
And that dozen were being organised by Osborne....
Very unlikely that constructing her govt as she sees fit will of itself provoke discontent. Only people to get snarky will be those who lack self-awareness and hold a higher opinion of themselves than is justified by objective assessment!
The Conservatives will see the abyss that is the current Labour party. It is literally too dangerous to play political silly buggers. Labour must not be allowed power until it has sorted itself out and returned from Planet Ideologue.
The NEC will still back Corbyn I think. I would still be surprised if they pull it off. We shall see.
A slim hope, but some hope.
The truth is @Jobabob I really don't like losing bets and I have 150 on Corbyn to see out the year
I get the feeling you've played all of the leader markets very poorly.
I value my Lab leadership book @ ~ £280 right now,
18 Nandy 2.7 Watson -7.1 D Miliband 1.8 Benn 10 McDonnell 1.5 Jarvis 5.7 Smith 0.2 Eagle 2 Other 10.5 Lewis 3.7 Ed Miliband 0.1 Chuka 0.1 Burnham
How is yours going ?
I've not played the Labour leadership market. I should do well tomorrow on the PM market (~£200), got paid a decent sum on Tory leader already. If Corbyn goes then I'll play the next Labour leadership market as they won't have to deal with crazy rules and entryists.
I think my net profit was about a hundred 50 quid on the Tories after all said and done (And next PM). As you say, poorly played - nowhere near my Trump book - can't win them all though.
Pulps don't get worried if you make "only" £150... but do get worried if you're quick to label it so.
Politics in the last few weeks has been like watching 10 box sets of 20 episode-long series in a fortnight.
I've had such a busy first half of 2016 that my Cowley & Kavanagh General Election of 2015 book has sat on my bookshelf largely untouched since I ordered it in January, and I'm not sure I'm going to bother reading it now - so much has changed, it seems hardly worth bothering...!
I'd a stack of Private Eyes still in the plastic wrap.
I might've agreed the PLP had good intentions a while ago (after all, I voted for one of the PLP's own in a leadership election just a year ago), but I'm not that naive anymore.
If the PLP were really concerned about getting Labour elected, they would not be calling for Labour to base their strategy on the main planks of the Remain Campaign, they would not be pushing forward a complete charisma vacuum like Angela Eagle who will NEVER be seen as a potential PM by the public, and they would not be trying to actively split the party as much as they are now. They are only concerned with their own ideological purity, as much as the hard left is.
It's not about being naive, it's the truth. Angela Eagle is being put forward at this stage not because she'll win a GE but because at least under her the Labour party will SURVIVE. The Labour party as we know it will still be one committed to gaining power through parliamentary democracy. That will NOT be the case if Corbyn's leadership continues. As I stressed before in previous posts, this is no longer about even winning the next GE anymore. This is about the SURVIVAL of a political party. Cameroonian Tories also supported the Remain campaign: that does not mean they do not care about the Tories' electability. Indeed for a long period, it looked as though Remain would win. The PLP are not trying to split the party - they are trying to avoid splitting Labour by getting rid of Corbyn. If Corbyn stays on that is what will cause a split.
This is not about 'ideological purity'. If that was the case, a cross section of PLP with various different views that depart from the so-called 'centre-ground' would not want Corbyn gone.
Why on earth would the party do better under Angela Eagle than it would under Corbyn?
Well, as I stated in my previous post Labour will still be a party which believes in parliamentary democracy. They won't be taken over by militant Leftists. Labour will still at some stage be able to win GEs again. If Corbyn stays, Labour will be taken over by the militant Left and will totally dead as a political force for decades, perhaps forever.
These are just assertions, without any reasoning to support them. WHY would Eagle mean Labour would at some stage be able to win GEs again? WHY would she win more seats in an election than Corbyn? She has less charisma than Corbyn, seems less of a plausible PM, is more of a hated "career politician" - once again, the Remain campaign being rejected in the Labour heartlands shows how successful she would be.
+1. "Labour will still at some stage be able to win GEs again" Why?? Maybe so, maybe not. I am sure a Liberal in the 1920s would have thought the same.
I might've agreed the PLP had good intentions a while ago (after all, I voted for one of the PLP's own in a leadership election just a year ago), but I'm not that naive anymore.
If the PLP were really concerned about getting Labour elected, they would not be calling for Labour to base their strategy on the main planks of the Remain Campaign, they would not be pushing forward a complete charisma vacuum like Angela Eagle who will NEVER be seen as a potential PM by the public, and they would not be trying to actively split the party as much as they are now. They are only concerned with their own ideological purity, as much as the hard left is.
It's not about being naive, it's the truth. Angela Eagle is being put forward at this stage not because she'll win a GE but because at least under her the Labour party will SURVIVE. The Labour party as we know it will still be one committed to gaining power through parliamentary democracy. That will NOT be the case if Corbyn's leadership continues. As I stressed before in previous posts, this is no longer about even winning the next GE anymore. This is about the SURVIVAL of a political party. Cameroonian Tories also supported the Remain campaign: that does not mean they do not care about the Tories' electability. Indeed for a long period, it looked as though Remain would win. The PLP are not trying to split the party - they are trying to avoid splitting Labour by getting rid of Corbyn. If Corbyn stays on that is what will cause a split.
This is not about 'ideological purity'. If that was the case, a cross section of PLP with various different views that depart from the so-called 'centre-ground' would not want Corbyn gone.
Why on earth would the party do better under Angela Eagle than it would under Corbyn?
Well, as I stated in my previous post Labour will still be a party which believes in parliamentary democracy. They won't be taken over by militant Leftists. Labour will still at some stage be able to win GEs again. If Corbyn stays, Labour will be taken over by the militant Left and will totally dead as a political force for decades, perhaps forever.
These are just assertions, without any reasoning to support them. WHY would Eagle mean Labour would at some stage be able to win GEs again? WHY would she win more seats in an election than Corbyn? She has less charisma than Corbyn, seems less of a plausible PM, is more of a hated "career politician" - once again, the Remain campaign being rejected in the Labour heartlands shows how successful she would be.
Man criticises another's assertions and then makes his own...
The NEC will still back Corbyn I think. I would still be surprised if they pull it off. We shall see.
A slim hope, but some hope.
The truth is @Jobabob I really don't like losing bets and I have 150 on Corbyn to see out the year
I get the feeling you've played all of the leader markets very poorly.
I value my Lab leadership book @ ~ £280 right now,
18 Nandy 2.7 Watson -7.1 D Miliband 1.8 Benn 10 McDonnell 1.5 Jarvis 5.7 Smith 0.2 Eagle 2 Other 10.5 Lewis 3.7 Ed Miliband 0.1 Chuka 0.1 Burnham
How is yours going ?
I've not played the Labour leadership market. I should do well tomorrow on the PM market (~£200), got paid a decent sum on Tory leader already. If Corbyn goes then I'll play the next Labour leadership market as they won't have to deal with crazy rules and entryists.
I think my net profit was about a hundred 50 quid on the Tories after all said and done (And next PM). As you say, poorly played - nowhere near my Trump book - can't win them all though.
Just checked and I got ~£600 yesterday as I laid Osborne in the leader market more than I did in the PM market, for some reason he was shorter in the leadership market for longer.
If Trump wins I'll collect a fair amount, my spreadsheet says I'm green on Hillary as well but in the tens rather than hundreds. Come on Trump!
So, suppose the NEC says Corbyn can't stand without nomination, which he won't get. Someone else gets elected. Corbyn takes the NEC to court but presumably that will drag on for months. Replacement well bedded in. Court eventually says rules are clear: no nominations are needed, therefore election invalid.
What happens then?
They would probably seek an injunction against the running of the leadership election before the question was determined. That hearing would be the key. If he didn't get his interim order it is unlikely the case would proceed. If he does get it some sort of compromise is likely because the timescale would be impossible for the party to cope with.
I tend to agree with those who think the rules do not require the person being challenged, that is the incumbent, to be nominated but ffs, how can you possibly lead the party in Parliament when 3/4 have already passed a no confidence motion in you and 50 are not prepared to back you? This is through the looking glass, it really is.
You have to change the MPs to represent the members views. It will take a while but it's the only way.
Yes: sod what the voters want: democracy requires the voters are represented by people selected by the leader.
Sounds like criticism of Blair: with the names changed.
Jezza is an unmitigated disaster for the Labour Party but I cannot read those rules in any way other than that he doesn't need to obtain signatures. This will get nasty.
The courts will back the NEC. The storm will die down in a few months...
The courts will say it is the internal matter of the Labour Party. Therefore, whatever, NEC says , goes.
Which implies the Courts can't make judgement on any contract law, since it is an internal matter to the contracting parties.
No, it means the courts can't make judgements on contract law when the contract defines who the separate arbitration panel is for resolving disputes.
Most contractees would not be stupid enough to choose a nakedly political outfit as the impartial arbitrators, but this is the Labour Party we are talking about.
I think the rule is the internal procedures must be exhausted before running to court. The body must be given an opportunity to correct its own errors.
At least twenty dead in this italian train crash I see. Apparently both units were four carriage. The front two of one and the front carriage of the other have been obliterated.
I fear that, unless the trains were very lightly loaded there may be worse news to follow.
It is a single track back country branch line, so hopefully the trains were not heavily loaded.
Its more equivalent to the Sheffield - Manchester route - not full blown intercity but busy interurban, it is electrified and is so busy that it will be double tracked in a few years (doubling of part of the route is already underway with the contract to double the crash stretch not far from letting. It at least happened at 11.30 not in the middle of Rush Hour
The current death rate is five persons per destroyed carriage which is very low. I fear that in the three most damaged carriages there will be little left to identify until the forensic teams get to work. Moorgate and the first coach of the Networker train at Ladbroke grove are the only accidents I can remember in recent (last 40 or so years) history that have resulted in anywhere near that level of destruction of carriages. Three carriages are basically matchwood and one is destroyed on one side.
The NEC will still back Corbyn I think. I would still be surprised if they pull it off. We shall see.
A slim hope, but some hope.
The truth is @Jobabob I really don't like losing bets and I have 150 on Corbyn to see out the year
I get the feeling you've played all of the leader markets very poorly.
I value my Lab leadership book @ ~ £280 right now,
18 Nandy 2.7 Watson -7.1 D Miliband 1.8 Benn 10 McDonnell 1.5 Jarvis 5.7 Smith 0.2 Eagle 2 Other 10.5 Lewis 3.7 Ed Miliband 0.1 Chuka 0.1 Burnham
How is yours going ?
I've not played the Labour leadership market. I should do well tomorrow on the PM market (~£200), got paid a decent sum on Tory leader already. If Corbyn goes then I'll play the next Labour leadership market as they won't have to deal with crazy rules and entryists.
I think my net profit was about a hundred 50 quid on the Tories after all said and done (And next PM). As you say, poorly played - nowhere near my Trump book - can't win them all though.
Just checked and I got ~£600 yesterday as I laid Osborne in the leader market more than I did in the PM market, for some reason he was shorter in the leadership market for longer.
If Trump wins I'll collect a fair amount, my spreadsheet says I'm green on Hillary as well but in the tens rather than hundreds. Come on Trump!
I think Mike Pence is too short @ evens in the VP nomination market. Yes, he is one of the firm contenders but this is Trump, who has previously demonstrated his mastery of the media.
However as a betting opportunity it is safer to conclude that if Pence is not unveiled as VP in the next week, it won't be him. The stars align for Pence this week, based on Trump's visit and his own gubernatorial contest in the 'fall'.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Left
Electoral groups[edit]
Alliance for Green Socialism
Class War
Communist League
Communist Party of Britain
Respect Party
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Socialist Equality Party
Socialist Labour Party
Socialist Party of Great Britain
Workers' Revolutionary Party
Groups working within TUSC[edit]
Further information: Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Socialist Party (England and Wales)
Socialist Workers Party
Non-electoral groups[edit]
Anti-revisionists[edit]
Further information: Anti-revisionism
Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist)
Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist)
New Communist Party of Britain
Revolutionary Communist Group
Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist)
Spartacist League
Others[edit]
Anarchist Federation
Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee)
Communist Workers Organisation
International Socialist League
Independent Working Class Association
World Revolution
Solidarity Federation
Workers' Fight
Groups working within Labour Party[edit]
Further information: Left Unity (UK)
Alliance for Workers Liberty
Left Unity
Socialist Resistance
Entryist groups within Labour Party[edit]
Further information: Entryism
Socialist Action
Socialist Appeal
Workers Power
That's not great (even if it's felt to be a necessary step to get a functioning Opposition).
If the PLP were really concerned about getting Labour elected, they would not be calling for Labour to base their strategy on the main planks of the Remain Campaign, they would not be pushing forward a complete charisma vacuum like Angela Eagle who will NEVER be seen as a potential PM by the public, and they would not be trying to actively split the party as much as they are now. They are only concerned with their own ideological purity, as much as the hard left is.
http://tinyurl.com/jquhcrg
What happened to trusty old John Lewis?
And yet we're supposed to believe the PLP are concerned about "electability rather than ideology", when they're happy to have a party without its members/voters/funding, led by Angela Eagle.
And that dozen were being organised by Osborne....
The truth is @Jobabob I really don't like losing bets and I have 150 on Corbyn to see out the year
I've reshaped the Lab leadership book to be acceptable whatever the outcome anyhow. Except Mr D Miliband. He best not swan over...
Am told the NEC's decision to hold secret ballot was swung by two female members particularly distressed about threat of intimidation.
Imagine you're on the NEC. If Corbyn wins, no reprisals. If he loses, people will wonder who voted this way or that. Which situation would make you feel more comfortable, in terms of personal safety?
If Labour can get a credible leader on a center ground platform they could get investment from business or wealthy donors again especially if the economy really tanks and the conservative government struggles.
Getting rid of Jez and the aftermath shortly after is going to painful I would imagine for Labour but it's short-term pain for long-term gain.
This is not about 'ideological purity'. If that was the case, a cross section of PLP with various different views that depart from the so-called 'centre-ground' would not want Corbyn gone.
arise Sir Southam ;-)
Without the unions and the activists in the constituencies, there would never have been a Labour government, no matter how "centrist" the leadership was.
18 Nandy
2.7 Watson
-7.1 D Miliband
1.8 Benn
10 McDonnell
1.5 Jarvis
5.7 Smith
0.2 Eagle
2 Other
10.5 Lewis
3.7 Ed Miliband
0.1 Chuka
0.1 Burnham
How is yours going ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b072zn42
I fear that, unless the trains were very lightly loaded there may be worse news to follow.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1niEjEpfyU8ksQ0ETYMZY6cocJjS0icd3h-e39WUSQ8Q/htmlview?usp=sharing&pref=2&pli=1&sle=true
International league of Trottosocialists.
Peoples front of Judea
Popular front of Judea
Judean Liberation Front
Judean Peoples Front (Splitters)
So if Brexit is effective from 31 December 2018 say, anyone arriving in the UK from before 2014 would be able to remain?
What happens then?
Mr. Observer, and it won't be just self-interest. I imagine many NEC members are friends, and may worry voting to keep Corbyn off the ballot may lead to their friends getting into uncomfortable situations.
Could go either way. But the rules, if adhered to, do seem pretty clear that Corbyn should be on the ballot.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Glenn, give it time. This is very significant stuff.
"You know what some people call you – the Nasty Party."
Would be fitting.
If Trump wins I'll collect a fair amount, my spreadsheet says I'm green on Hillary as well but in the tens rather than hundreds. Come on Trump!
Sounds like criticism of Blair: with the names changed.
The NEC has been sued several times in the past.
The current death rate is five persons per destroyed carriage which is very low. I fear that in the three most damaged carriages there will be little left to identify until the forensic teams get to work. Moorgate and the first coach of the Networker train at Ladbroke grove are the only accidents I can remember in recent (last 40 or so years) history that have resulted in anywhere near that level of destruction of carriages. Three carriages are basically matchwood and one is destroyed on one side.
http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/guide-to-the-2018-review-published/
Looks like plotters win round 1 to me now
However as a betting opportunity it is safer to conclude that if Pence is not unveiled as VP in the next week, it won't be him. The stars align for Pence this week, based on Trump's visit and his own gubernatorial contest in the 'fall'.