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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom

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  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,923

    Mr. Bob, the credit rating is neither here nor there. Short term choppy waters are to be expected, the question is whether this is in our long term interests.

    The people have spoken. Their decision can be respected, or held in contempt.

    The people have muttered, they have been quite indecisive and haven't made it clear.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Brom said:

    Jobabob said:

    midwinter said:

    TGOHF said:

    Perhaps if Remain had campaigned on "if we lose, we will simply give up running the country" rather on threatening punishment budgets they might have polled more votes..

    Yawn....and if Leave had campaigned on "if we win we won't have a clue what to do" rather than picking random numbers and pledging them to the NHS they'd probably have lost.

    Indeed. And if Leave hadn't run the most mendacious nakedly racist national campaign of outright lies in UK political history they would certainly have lost.

    Funny old world.
    anger won't help your situation, maybe politics isn't the right sphere for you if you dont like lies. Never mind, there's always the 2020 general election to cheer you up :)
    The truth hurts I see.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,496
    Jobabob said:

    Brom said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.

    It's hilarious. Most of the country are moving on and looking to the future and a few on PB are stamping their feet like toddlers predicting the end of the world.

    There is no evidence for that contention. Indeed all surveys and anecdotes suggest quite the opposite – that the two sides are unwilling to back down and the national is utterly, horribly divided.
    Sorry I should have stated responsible adults. Obviously a lot of students with a 5 minute interest in politics and a few celebrity luvvies are still angry but most others accept the result just as we accept the result of every previous election.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,240

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.

    Grief has a normal progression from denial through anger to acceptance.
    Indeed. Coping mechanisms developed for dealing with terminal cancer work so well for Brexit!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301
    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718

    MaxPB said:

    The time to do that was Dave's negotiation. Tis too late now. Without single market membership we would be in a horribly weak position. The EU knows this and so do we, the bluff is no longer available because if call it we are the main losers. Right now we need a serious politician for serious times. Once we've negotiated single market membership and begun to work on bilateral trade deals from a position of strength we can open up long term negotiations with the EU over our future relations. Right now we need some stability, pragmatism and clear thinking. Leadsom won't provide us with any of that, she seems too erratic and ideological to put the good of the nation's economy ahead of some desire to give the EU a bloody nose (which I'd also love to do).

    Why did Dave's negotiation fail? I would say it was because Dave was too honest about our bottom line, so got even less than that. Electing May could repeat the same mistake, if the EU don't take us seriously then we won't get a good deal.
    .............
    A strong leader can get a good deal, but only if they are taken seriously. This is a Nixon to China moment.
    You have to prepare thoroughly, believe in your case, know what the other side's red lines are and be prepared to walk away.
    So, unilaterally committing to EU residents rights in Britain without securing reciprocal rights for British residents in the EU would be unwise?
    Perhaps although in this instance I suspect that everyone knows that this will be agreed so it is a moot point. There is no realistic way a reciprocal agreement to let those who've already migrated remain is not going to be agreed even if we fully Brexit. The idea of deporting those who'd legally migrated years ago is a non-starter.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218
    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    What's your threshold?
    I've told you.

    Let's put it another way. Brunei, Qatar, Dubai are all places with a GDP per head, massively in excess of our own. But, if I were given the choice between having their GDP per head, and having their societies, or having our GDP per head, and our societies, I'd choose the latter. Because, I'd be putting a higher value on our democracy and freedom than I would on more money.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,004

    As the leading leavers exit stage right..."I have a bad feeling about this"

    Personally have today sold all my pension investments (other than the gold fund) and intend watching from the sidelines until late autumn. Cash is trash as they say but investment risk not for me at the moment. Too much downside risk I fear. I could be the new henchman...gawd help me

    hunchman, I think?
    Correct. Poxy phone autocorrect
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 136
    Brom said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.

    It's hilarious. Most of the country are moving on and looking to the future and a few on PB are stamping their feet like toddlers predicting the end of the world.
    Certainly a fair few are planning on moving....
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,096
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:

    Only three people thought it was going to be rainbows.

    Andrea Leadsom was one of them
    Wrong - she talks incessantly about 'sunlit uplands' :)
    Sunlight shining through rain is what causes rainbows!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,496

    Brom said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.

    It's hilarious. Most of the country are moving on and looking to the future and a few on PB are stamping their feet like toddlers predicting the end of the world.
    Certainly a fair few are planning on moving....
    well of course if Mrs May has her way!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,099

    Scott_P said:

    Even Danny Blanchflower got this one right

    @D_Blanchflower: $1.3187 and falling the experts did warn you this would happen

    That's how messed up we are...

    Great news for exporters. The leavers said this could happen too but that it would be good news.
    Presumably though inflation will rise, on everyday stuff like petrol. Which everyday folk will notice.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,737
    edited July 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    I place a value on many things. A well functioning successful economy is one of the prime ones.
    Functioning for who though? If you're one of the people which can't find jobs, can't get housing etc etc, then you don't give a toss about GDP.
    Yeah and cutting ourselves off from the world is really going to help those people.

    As I said earlier today it was "the economy, Stupid" that won the referendum.

    Not the economy as we see it with our secure well paid jobs but the economy of those on minimum wage, zero hour contracts with a lot of imported competition....

    And until you can accept that there is little point trying to work out how to fix it...
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.

    Hmmm - lots of people with comfortable incomes, homes, etc telling those with rather less that money is unimportant. Let's see how that meme plays out when the proverbial hits the fan.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    Even Danny Blanchflower got this one right

    @D_Blanchflower: $1.3187 and falling the experts did warn you this would happen

    That's how messed up we are...

    DAX Down
    CAC Down
    FTSE Up

    It's a funny old world.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P

    '@business: BREAKING: Some of Bank of England's #Brexit concerns are being bourne out, Mark Carney says https://t.co/oPVu2S4yqR https://t.co/R1HuvssSvZ'


    Carney just loves to talk the economy & country down.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    So much for European cities trying to muscle London out if financial services. The new word is that the Commission are going to propose a new financial transactions tax to make up for the budgetary shortfall caused by Brexit.

    As someone said last week, the French may have rolled out the red carpet but they immediately had to roll it back up again because no responded, not even the likes of SocGen and BNP.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    The longer this stale post-Brexit debate continues, the more convinced I become that we're talking two totally different languages.

    I penned a comment weeks ago in the Times about the gulf between the values of Remainers vs Leavers - it seems to becoming more ideological than ever. The referendum has tipped our politics upsidedown.

    I think that's a very good thing - the media still haven't clocked it yet and neither have large sections of the Establishment. They see the obvious/label it, yet fail to understand the attitudes behind it.

    Not sure they ever will TBH. The last three months has been an education.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    This thread is a miserable insight into the desolate, obsessive mind of the europhobe. It is now abundantly clear that leaving the EU is all that matters to them. Any perceivable economic downturn is a price worth paying, squalid, racist dishonest campaigning defensible. As long as they get their Brexit that is all that matters. I need to step away from the thread – reading such posts is utterly depressing.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718

    Mr. Bob, the credit rating is neither here nor there. Short term choppy waters are to be expected, the question is whether this is in our long term interests.

    The people have spoken. Their decision can be respected, or held in contempt.

    The people have muttered, they have been quite indecisive and haven't made it clear.
    Record turnout that hasn't been seen for decades and the winning side won by over a million votes. There was a decisive and clear result.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301

    Scott_P said:

    Even Danny Blanchflower got this one right

    @D_Blanchflower: $1.3187 and falling the experts did warn you this would happen

    That's how messed up we are...

    Great news for exporters. The leavers said this could happen too but that it would be good news.

    It is great news for exporters. But we don't have enough of them. That's not the fault of the EU, it's an entirely self-inflicted wound. And a falling pound is also going to push prices up, which is very bad news for people who already have to watch every penny.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,432
    edited July 2016
    the french must be getting desperate, they are now claiming that a french worker on the national minimum wage is cheaper than a comparable polish worker.

    http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/2016/07/05/97002-20160705FILWWW00011-un-smicard-francais-moins-cher-qu-un-polonais.php

    They forget the fench guy will spend his time striking and smoking Gauloises, while the Polish guy will actually work
  • po8crgpo8crg Posts: 19
    Who could the votes switch to to keep her out? Much of her support seems to be from people who hate both Gove and May - can they really switch to Fox or Crabb?

    I suspect we'll know this week, as if it comes down to Leadsom/Gove/May on Thursday, then I can't see Boris and the Borisites doing anything other than voting Leadsom, and that should be enough to put her ahead of Gove.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,363
    edited July 2016

    Perhaps although in this instance I suspect that everyone knows that this will be agreed so it is a moot point. There is no realistic way a reciprocal agreement to let those who've already migrated remain is not going to be agreed even if we fully Brexit. The idea of deporting those who'd legally migrated years ago is a non-starter.

    The idea of deporting those who'd legally migrated years ago is indeed a non-starter, in practical terms. But the idea those who have been here three months do not now have a lifetime right to residence and also to get the same benefits as they would if we had decided to remain in the EU certainly isn't.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,079
    john_zims said:

    @Scott_P

    '@business: BREAKING: Some of Bank of England's #Brexit concerns are being bourne out, Mark Carney says https://t.co/oPVu2S4yqR https://t.co/R1HuvssSvZ'


    Carney just loves to talk the economy & country down.

    The "stop talking X down" argument is only ever used by people who are uncomfortable with the truth.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568

    Sean_F said:

    I'm sure that Brexit supporters would still have campaigned to leave the EU if the result had been 52/48 the other way, but it's very unlikely that the current government would have given us a second referendum.

    Precisely. The decision has been taken, Brexit means Brexit. We need to move on to making the best of it. The way to do that is not to stick our heads in the sand and deny that we are seeing severe economic damage. That should be a position that people can unite around.
    Quite. We are where we are, time to move on and do the best we can with the hand we've been dealt.....

    Oh, and amateur hour virtue signalling from LEAVErs on EU residents in Britain, in the absence of reciprocal arrangements for British residents in the EU is unhelpful....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,432
    Looks like the border controls are working, only 5000 asylum seekers reached Germany in June.

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/fluechtlingskrise/neue-zahlen-es-kommen-kaum-noch-fluechtlinge-nach-deutschland-14324712.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718

    Scott_P said:

    Even Danny Blanchflower got this one right

    @D_Blanchflower: $1.3187 and falling the experts did warn you this would happen

    That's how messed up we are...

    Great news for exporters. The leavers said this could happen too but that it would be good news.

    It is great news for exporters. But we don't have enough of them. That's not the fault of the EU, it's an entirely self-inflicted wound. And a falling pound is also going to push prices up, which is very bad news for people who already have to watch every penny.

    We may not have enough of them but we may develop more of them now. Opportunities are opening up for those brave enough to take a punt. Some moderate inflation is not a bad thing, so long as it stays at a low amount. Our inflation has been dangerously below target for years now and threatening destructive Japanese style deflation.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,474
    Funny how the credit rating isn't an issue for right wingers any more, they were watching them like hawks when it was looking like EICIPM!
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,111
    TGOHF said:

    midwinter said:

    TGOHF said:

    Perhaps if Remain had campaigned on "if we lose, we will simply give up running the country" rather on threatening punishment budgets they might have polled more votes..

    Yawn....and if Leave had campaigned on "if we win we won't have a clue what to do" rather than picking random numbers and pledging them to the NHS they'd probably have lost.
    The referendum was called by the PM and the CoTE - they are responsible for everything afterwards.
    That's irrelevant to your post about Remains campaign. And although they bear some responsibility, it's also not unfair to point out that voters were warned about the likely downside of a Leave vote, and that it's not unreasonable to expect that Leave would have had a more coherent strategy post referendum than backtracking on most of it's pledges.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218
    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.

    Hmmm - lots of people with comfortable incomes, homes, etc telling those with rather less that money is unimportant. Let's see how that meme plays out when the proverbial hits the fan.
    On the contrary, it is the richest who tend to be most frightened about loss of money.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The "stop talking X down" argument is only ever used by people who are uncomfortable with the truth.

    It's code for "stop talking. I don't want to hear you"
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,363
    Sean_F said:

    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.

    Why do you think the value of UK-focused investments has fallen and is still falling?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    What's your threshold?
    I've told you.

    Let's put it another way. Brunei, Qatar, Dubai are all places with a GDP per head, massively in excess of our own. But, if I were given the choice between having their GDP per head, and having their societies, or having our GDP per head, and our societies, I'd choose the latter. Because, I'd be putting a higher value on our democracy and freedom than I would on more money.
    You are worming out of the question* because nobody is forecasting a conversion to an authoritarian absolute monarchy like the nations you cite.

    Let's be specific: If Brexit puts 3 million on the dole, would you consider that a price worth paying?



    *You are not unique in this, so are many of your fellow Brexiteers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218

    Sean_F said:

    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.

    Why do you think the value of UK-focused investments has fallen and is still falling?
    Nervousness about the future, and in part, the same sentiment that saw people betting huge amounts of money on Remain.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607

    Scott_P said:

    Even Danny Blanchflower got this one right

    @D_Blanchflower: $1.3187 and falling the experts did warn you this would happen

    That's how messed up we are...

    DAX Down
    CAC Down
    FTSE Up

    It's a funny old world.
    Only if you are dumb enough not to understand that the bulk of the FTSE is not British and £ based companies and therefore benefits enormously from £ devaluations. Only if....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718
    edited July 2016
    Scott_P said:
    If foreign purchases of shares was down post-Brexit then why is FTSE up? FTSE is up partially because a falling sterling has made foreign investment into the UK cheaper.

    So file under QTWAIN. Obiously.

    Perhaps although in this instance I suspect that everyone knows that this will be agreed so it is a moot point. There is no realistic way a reciprocal agreement to let those who've already migrated remain is not going to be agreed even if we fully Brexit. The idea of deporting those who'd legally migrated years ago is a non-starter.

    The idea of deporting those who'd legally migrated years ago is indeed a non-starter, in practical terms. But the idea those who have been here three months do not now have a lifetime right to residence and also to get the same benefits as they would if we had decided to remain in the EU certainly isn't.
    Agreed and that is the kind of issue that will be agreed in the Article 50 negotiations with complete reciprocity.
  • Scott_P said:

    @GdnPolitics: Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson are unpatriotic quitters, says Juncker https://t.co/utlxzdFGJ1

    Bit early in the day. Even for him.
    LOL!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Now this would be funny

    @paulhutcheon: I reckon any EU deal will = Brexiteers wanting a 2nd referendum https://t.co/ZI7tuRmRe1

    No 2nd referendum. You lost. Move on. Oh, hang on...
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    PlatoSaid said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    The longer this stale post-Brexit debate continues, the more convinced I become that we're talking two totally different languages.

    I penned a comment weeks ago in the Times about the gulf between the values of Remainers vs Leavers - it seems to becoming more ideological than ever. The referendum has tipped our politics upsidedown.

    I think that's a very good thing - the media still haven't clocked it yet and neither have large sections of the Establishment. They see the obvious/label it, yet fail to understand the attitudes behind it.

    Not sure they ever will TBH. The last three months has been an education.
    It will take way more than 3 months education to complete yours.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218
    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    What's your threshold?
    I've told you.

    Let's put it another way. Brunei, Qatar, Dubai are all places with a GDP per head, massively in excess of our own. But, if I were given the choice between having their GDP per head, and having their societies, or having our GDP per head, and our societies, I'd choose the latter. Because, I'd be putting a higher value on our democracy and freedom than I would on more money.
    You are worming out of the question* because nobody is forecasting a conversion to an authoritarian absolute monarchy like the nations you cite.

    Let's be specific: If Brexit puts 3 million on the dole, would you consider that a price worth paying?



    *You are not unique in this, so are many of your fellow Brexiteers.
    Since nobody is predicting such a thing, there's no point in answering such a hypothetical.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    What's your threshold?
    I've told you.

    Let's put it another way. Brunei, Qatar, Dubai are all places with a GDP per head, massively in excess of our own. But, if I were given the choice between having their GDP per head, and having their societies, or having our GDP per head, and our societies, I'd choose the latter. Because, I'd be putting a higher value on our democracy and freedom than I would on more money.
    You are worming out of the question* because nobody is forecasting a conversion to an authoritarian absolute monarchy like the nations you cite.

    Let's be specific: If Brexit puts 3 million on the dole, would you consider that a price worth paying?



    *You are not unique in this, so are many of your fellow Brexiteers.
    Since nobody is predicting such a thing, there's no point in answering such a hypothetical.
    You mean you don't want to answer the question.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.

    Again, I'd say these are the kinds of sentiments that those who do not have to worry about where the next meal is coming from or how they will heat their homes like to ascribe to the noble poor. In the real world, having enough to get by on is profoundly important. There is a reason why the current government has been so careful to ensure that pensioners are well looked after financially.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tessa Jowell livid with Corbyn and co.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Sean_F said:

    I'm sure that Brexit supporters would still have campaigned to leave the EU if the result had been 52/48 the other way, but it's very unlikely that the current government would have given us a second referendum.

    Precisely. The decision has been taken, Brexit means Brexit. We need to move on to making the best of it. The way to do that is not to stick our heads in the sand and deny that we are seeing severe economic damage. That should be a position that people can unite around.
    Conversely, yesterday's horror stories were Standard Life suspending trading in its UK property fund, which has been on the cards since February if not earlier, and a report where 80% of the data were collected pre-brexit. Let's be realistic about the facts, agreed, but let's not enter Chicken-licken mode until the sky fall evidence is actually in.

    I voted remain, incidentally.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    Times reporting that Arron Banks is going to run for UKIP leader. Looooooooooool
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,099
    MaxPB said:

    Times reporting that Arron Banks is going to run for UKIP leader. Looooooooooool

    ...and when he loses he can go and form a new party with Farage.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301

    Scott_P said:

    Even Danny Blanchflower got this one right

    @D_Blanchflower: $1.3187 and falling the experts did warn you this would happen

    That's how messed up we are...

    Great news for exporters. The leavers said this could happen too but that it would be good news.

    It is great news for exporters. But we don't have enough of them. That's not the fault of the EU, it's an entirely self-inflicted wound. And a falling pound is also going to push prices up, which is very bad news for people who already have to watch every penny.

    We may not have enough of them but we may develop more of them now. Opportunities are opening up for those brave enough to take a punt. Some moderate inflation is not a bad thing, so long as it stays at a low amount. Our inflation has been dangerously below target for years now and threatening destructive Japanese style deflation.

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

  • BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,363
    Ishmael_X said:

    Conversely, yesterday's horror stories were Standard Life suspending trading in its UK property fund, which has been on the cards since February if not earlier, and a report where 80% of the data were collected pre-brexit. Let's be realistic about the facts, agreed, but let's not enter Chicken-licken mode until the sky fall evidence is actually in.

    I voted remain, incidentally.

    Yes, it will take time to tease out the various effects, and in any case we shouldn't get too hung-up on short-term market movements. The most important figures at the moment are those which relate to business confidence and investment plans.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,809
    MaxPB said:

    So much for European cities trying to muscle London out if financial services. The new word is that the Commission are going to propose a new financial transactions tax to make up for the budgetary shortfall caused by Brexit.

    As someone said last week, the French may have rolled out the red carpet but they immediately had to roll it back up again because no responded, not even the likes of SocGen and BNP.

    If that's the case then probably means freedom of movement negotiations off the table, the French aren't going to offer a negotiation on that if they won't benefit from something else in return, I think so far they are the only ones who indicated flexibility on that point. Not sure what else they have to gain from Brexit.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,097
    felix said:

    Scott_P said:

    Even Danny Blanchflower got this one right

    @D_Blanchflower: $1.3187 and falling the experts did warn you this would happen

    That's how messed up we are...

    DAX Down
    CAC Down
    FTSE Up

    It's a funny old world.
    Only if you are dumb enough not to understand that the bulk of the FTSE is not British and £ based companies and therefore benefits enormously from £ devaluations. Only if....
    Of course the FTSE 250, which is more UK based, is down about 5 to 8%. Which is a slide but no catastrophe.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.

    Again, I'd say these are the kinds of sentiments that those who do not have to worry about where the next meal is coming from or how they will heat their homes like to ascribe to the noble poor. In the real world, having enough to get by on is profoundly important. There is a reason why the current government has been so careful to ensure that pensioners are well looked after financially.

    The voting is clear. The richer you were, the more likely you were to vote Remain.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,299
    MaxPB said:

    Times reporting that Arron Banks is going to run for UKIP leader. Looooooooooool

    Oh dear, they'll be morphing even more into a sub-BNP type party.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385

    felix said:

    Scott_P said:

    Even Danny Blanchflower got this one right

    @D_Blanchflower: $1.3187 and falling the experts did warn you this would happen

    That's how messed up we are...

    DAX Down
    CAC Down
    FTSE Up

    It's a funny old world.
    Only if you are dumb enough not to understand that the bulk of the FTSE is not British and £ based companies and therefore benefits enormously from £ devaluations. Only if....
    Of course the FTSE 250, which is more UK based, is down about 5 to 8%. Which is a slide but no catastrophe.
    The FTSE 250 is about 50% UK / 50% international so not actually much lower than the FTSE 100. There is a FTSE Local Index that only reports companies with over 70% of their income derived from the UK but getting its value isn't easy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195

    Ishmael_X said:

    Conversely, yesterday's horror stories were Standard Life suspending trading in its UK property fund, which has been on the cards since February if not earlier, and a report where 80% of the data were collected pre-brexit. Let's be realistic about the facts, agreed, but let's not enter Chicken-licken mode until the sky fall evidence is actually in.

    I voted remain, incidentally.

    Yes, it will take time to tease out the various effects, and in any case we shouldn't get too hung-up on short-term market movements. The most important figures at the moment are those which relate to business confidence and investment plans.
    Osborne's gambit was interesting yesterday, threaten to turn the UK into a very large and stable tax haven if we don't get a good deal. I just wish he had been so creative in the first set of negotiations.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MaxPB said:

    Times reporting that Arron Banks is going to run for UKIP leader. Looooooooooool

    And so apparently may Rasheem Thingy who edits Breibart. Lots of fun to be had here.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.
    Ah the noble poor. More important things than money.

    Gawd bless them. Gawd bless you sir an 'all. You're a gent so you are.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    What's your threshold?
    I've told you.

    Let's put it another way. Brunei, Qatar, Dubai are all places with a GDP per head, massively in excess of our own. But, if I were given the choice between having their GDP per head, and having their societies, or having our GDP per head, and our societies, I'd choose the latter. Because, I'd be putting a higher value on our democracy and freedom than I would on more money.
    You are worming out of the question* because nobody is forecasting a conversion to an authoritarian absolute monarchy like the nations you cite.

    Let's be specific: If Brexit puts 3 million on the dole, would you consider that a price worth paying?



    *You are not unique in this, so are many of your fellow Brexiteers.
    Since nobody is predicting such a thing, there's no point in answering such a hypothetical.
    You mean you don't want to answer the question.
    Eddie George said "High unemployment in the North is a worthwhile price to pay for low inflation in the South".

    And in answer to your hypothetical question. The answer is Yes! The needs of the 60 million outweigh the needs of the 3 million.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641

    Ishmael_X said:

    Conversely, yesterday's horror stories were Standard Life suspending trading in its UK property fund, which has been on the cards since February if not earlier, and a report where 80% of the data were collected pre-brexit. Let's be realistic about the facts, agreed, but let's not enter Chicken-licken mode until the sky fall evidence is actually in.

    I voted remain, incidentally.

    Yes, it will take time to tease out the various effects, and in any case we shouldn't get too hung-up on short-term market movements. The most important figures at the moment are those which relate to business confidence and investment plans.
    How about this.....Silence.

    The sound of £100m not being invested.

    Doesn't quite fit the 24-hr news cycle, though.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,809
    I get what May is trying to achieve with her stance on EU nationals, to keep as much bargaining power as possible, in theory. But I think it's been played badly. It wasn't necessary to make the comment, and to be honest there is zero risk of us accepting EU nationals while brits get kicked out of european countries (and I say that as a brit immigrant in the EU), it just wouldn't happen. Brits in EU countries are not a problem for any other governments (even in Spain it's still a net positive for the economy), they have no interest in deporting us unless it's a tit-for-tat. The EU wouldn't do deportations if we didn't start it first.

    So May made a mistake there, she put something on the table that was nowhere near the table. If she had said EU nationals can stay, brits abroad would have been safe too. She has in fact made our position less secure than it was previously.

    I say that as someone still hoping May wins (although as a lefty remainer this is because she's the best chance of continuity EU-lite/EEA we have left)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.
    Ah the noble poor. More important things than money.

    Gawd bless them. Gawd bless you sir an 'all. You're a gent so you are.
    It's not a question of the poor being "noble". It's just that it should be quite clear from the vote that richer and poorer people tend to have different priorities.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    What makes me smile everyday since 24th June is that the Eurocrats have a diminishing relevance in our lives. Junker's massive hissy fit embodied everything that's wrong with the EU.

    It's so liberating to finally be free.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,855

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    No - I think this is based on UK reports stemming from Schaueble, a long-standing critic of Juncker's but quite controversial domestically and not seen as a guide to Merkel's thinking. I don't think Juncker is going anywhere and he'll be leading the negotiations with us when we get round to asking for them.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,240

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.
    The effect of Brexit is to disconnect. We don't sell more stuff to China simply because we trade less with the EU. In fact our major European peers trade more with China than we do. The EU hasn't thwarted them. At best, Brexit is displacement from tackling the real reasons why we trade less with the rest of the world.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,096
    Michael Gove has just tweeted "I want to create an economy where every person in the country can get a good, secure job with a decent wage" (which is just guff, frankly - shows what happens when you're compressed to 140 characters).

    Not perhaps the best timing when set against Carney's "everything post-EURef has gone pearshaped" press conference given that Leavers will have to own the consequences of the decision.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Oil still below $50.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The answer to Gisela Stuart's Urgent Question...

    @helenlewis: Do you know what would have really protected the rights of EU citizens living in the UK? *Staying in the EU*.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.
    Ah the noble poor. More important things than money.

    Gawd bless them. Gawd bless you sir an 'all. You're a gent so you are.
    It's not a question of the poor being "noble". It's just that it should be quite clear from the vote that richer and poorer people tend to have different priorities.
    Am I allowed to say that it is possible that the richer you are the better education you might have had and the more able to assess the issues involved in our decision to cut ourselves off from the single market and leave the EU?

    Surely for calling a spade a spade Tories that isn't too politically incorrect is it?

    That is not to say that there aren't many many people from less well-off backgrounds with a good education. Of course there are. And the majority of them probably voted Remain.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718
    FF43 said:

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.
    The effect of Brexit is to disconnect. We don't sell more stuff to China simply because we trade less with the EU. In fact our major European peers trade more with China than we do. The EU hasn't thwarted them. At best, Brexit is displacement from tackling the real reasons why we trade less with the rest of the world.
    EFTA members that have negotiated free trade deals with nations the EU have trade more with those nations than we do, unsurprisingly. The EU is putting a break on us negotiating our own deals like the EFTA not only can but has done.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195

    I get what May is trying to achieve with her stance on EU nationals, to keep as much bargaining power as possible, in theory. But I think it's been played badly. It wasn't necessary to make the comment, and to be honest there is zero risk of us accepting EU nationals while brits get kicked out of european countries (and I say that as a brit immigrant in the EU), it just wouldn't happen. Brits in EU countries are not a problem for any other governments (even in Spain it's still a net positive for the economy), they have no interest in deporting us unless it's a tit-for-tat. The EU wouldn't do deportations if we didn't start it first.

    So May made a mistake there, she put something on the table that was nowhere near the table. If she had said EU nationals can stay, brits abroad would have been safe too. She has in fact made our position less secure than it was previously.

    I say that as someone still hoping May wins (although as a lefty remainer this is because she's the best chance of continuity EU-lite/EEA we have left)

    The official Spanish stance is that Brits might have to leave Spain. We need an EU wide settlement which is why her stance makes sense.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,240

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    No - I think this is based on UK reports stemming from Schaueble, a long-standing critic of Juncker's but quite controversial domestically and not seen as a guide to Merkel's thinking. I don't think Juncker is going anywhere and he'll be leading the negotiations with us when we get round to asking for them.
    FWIW Schaeuble was saying yesterday that Juncker was his choice for EU Commission President and made disparaging remarks about people who concentrate on personnel instead of the issues.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.
    Ah the noble poor. More important things than money.

    Gawd bless them. Gawd bless you sir an 'all. You're a gent so you are.
    It's not a question of the poor being "noble". It's just that it should be quite clear from the vote that richer and poorer people tend to have different priorities.

    So your contention is that people were not in swayed by promises to substantially increase public spending, reduce taxes, improve wages and lower housing costs? The poor know their place and are just happy to live frugal lives full of joyful laughter. Or something like that.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,099
    Scott_P said:

    The answer to Gisela Stuart's Urgent Question...

    @helenlewis: Do you know what would have really protected the rights of EU citizens living in the UK? *Staying in the EU*.

    Precisely. Gisela's audacity was breathtaking.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Theresa May vows to get tough with EU leaders - exclusive interview with editor @sandsstandard https://t.co/ggbTCF1As2
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Farage 'disgusted' at May's refusal to promise EU nationals they can stay in UK"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jul/05/brexit-live-tory-leadership-tom-watson-unions-jeremy-corbyn
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,096

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    No - I think this is based on UK reports stemming from Schaueble, a long-standing critic of Juncker's but quite controversial domestically and not seen as a guide to Merkel's thinking. I don't think Juncker is going anywhere and he'll be leading the negotiations with us when we get round to asking for them.
    It has to be touch and go as to whether Juncker will see out his term if he's not replaced, simply because of the possibility of a post-Brexit domino effect that could bring down the entire EU. He and others like him are so far in denial of the EU's defects that they're utterly incapable of addressing them. And if they don't address them, what future for the EU with PVV rampant in the Netherlands, le Pen breathing down the necks of Juppe and Sarkozy in France and AfD taking chunks out of the mainstream in Germany - all big net contributors, all three founder members and all three with elections next year.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.

    We had access to the world already. All that's changed is that we are going to take ourselves out of the single market.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,474
    So you've been laid off at work and your pension is in the toilet. Cheer up, we got our country back!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeMurphyLondon: Reform and then Britain 'won't leave the EU' says Austrian finance minister https://t.co/4hsag6xAdd
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,099

    Michael Gove has just tweeted "I want to create an economy where every person in the country can get a good, secure job with a decent wage" (which is just guff, frankly - shows what happens when you're compressed to 140 characters).

    Not perhaps the best timing when set against Carney's "everything post-EURef has gone pearshaped" press conference given that Leavers will have to own the consequences of the decision.

    If there is a severe economic downturn, the Tory government will be blamed, rather than the EU vote per se. That's life. We'll be left with an unpopular government and an unelectable opposition.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    The Conway graph does make me wonder if he looks at what he posts.

    The bit below the line is almost as bad as in 2012, 2013 or 2014. Of course, things might worsen (or improve), but at the moment the line seems to be that 2016 is terrible because of Brexit, even though 2012/13/14 were worse.
  • The result of today's Leadership Election by Tory MPs is due to be announced at around 7pm apparently.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,299
    MaxPB said:

    I get what May is trying to achieve with her stance on EU nationals, to keep as much bargaining power as possible, in theory. But I think it's been played badly. It wasn't necessary to make the comment, and to be honest there is zero risk of us accepting EU nationals while brits get kicked out of european countries (and I say that as a brit immigrant in the EU), it just wouldn't happen. Brits in EU countries are not a problem for any other governments (even in Spain it's still a net positive for the economy), they have no interest in deporting us unless it's a tit-for-tat. The EU wouldn't do deportations if we didn't start it first.

    So May made a mistake there, she put something on the table that was nowhere near the table. If she had said EU nationals can stay, brits abroad would have been safe too. She has in fact made our position less secure than it was previously.

    I say that as someone still hoping May wins (although as a lefty remainer this is because she's the best chance of continuity EU-lite/EEA we have left)

    The official Spanish stance is that Brits might have to leave Spain. We need an EU wide settlement which is why her stance makes sense.
    Indeed. I can imagine those squealing about this would be squealing twice as loudly if we gave an unlimited right to residency and their wasn't reciprocity.

    To see Leavers queuing up to demand we do this is falling in the extreme. This is the consequence of their advocacy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,718

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.

    We had access to the world already. All that's changed is that we are going to take ourselves out of the single market.

    We have tariff-free and NTB-free trade with the whole world?

    Or are you claiming that trade deals that get rid of tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers are meaningless? In which case if they're meaningless then what purpose does the Single Market serve?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Mr. Observer, weren't free trade deals the business of the EU, not the UK?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,079

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,218

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.
    Ah the noble poor. More important things than money.

    Gawd bless them. Gawd bless you sir an 'all. You're a gent so you are.
    It's not a question of the poor being "noble". It's just that it should be quite clear from the vote that richer and poorer people tend to have different priorities.

    So your contention is that people were not in swayed by promises to substantially increase public spending, reduce taxes, improve wages and lower housing costs? The poor know their place and are just happy to live frugal lives full of joyful laughter. Or something like that.

    Now you're just being silly for the sake of it.

    I've tried to argue that economic advancement is not the only priority that people have. I think that it is clear from the voting, and from extensive discussions on this website, that people who are better off tend to prioritise economic advancement more highly than people who are less well off. That doesn't make one group of people better, nobler, or more rational than the other. All it means is that they prioritise different things.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.

    Again, I'd say these are the kinds of sentiments that those who do not have to worry about where the next meal is coming from or how they will heat their homes like to ascribe to the noble poor. In the real world, having enough to get by on is profoundly important. There is a reason why the current government has been so careful to ensure that pensioners are well looked after financially.

    The voting is clear. The richer you were, the more likely you were to vote Remain.

    Yep - I know. But I am not sure that tells us anything much about poor people being less interested in money - unless your contention is that withdrawing from the EU will, indeed, make us poorer and those voting Leave realised this.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Awesome...

    @faisalislam: Nope, news presenters *really* don't control the currency markets, they are the most liquid markets in the world. https://t.co/mgbmZW8bhA
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,855

    PlatoSaid said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Cameron gambled everything on the European referendum because he thought the centre was secure. He and George Osborne believed, as one of their cabinet allies told me: “It will be about jobs and the economy and it won’t even be close.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/how-remain-failed-inside-story-doomed-campaign

    My favourite comment is from FordPrefect100

    "In reality, the pro-EU arguments were supported by an overwhelming majority of economists, thinktanks, business leaders, diplomats and other professional bodies"

    The problem was, and still is, that none of those "experts" are expert about what life is like for someone who lives on a council estate in Peterborough or Bolton, or who is an unemployed fisherman in Aberdeen.

    And the people whose job it is to know - Labour MPs - don't know either, and don't care."
    It's amazing that those who are trying to bring about a split in the Labour party, with the intention of forming a new Centre-Left grouping to appeal to the 48% Remainers are forgetting one key fact which is that 70% of Labour held constituencies voted for Leave
    The simple but inescapable fact is that Labour won it for Leave! Perhaps someone should explain this to the likes of the foul-mouthed Charlotte Church and her fellow rebels.
    I don't think that Ms Church favours an anti-Corbyn split!

    I'm not convinced that Labour would have changed the result with any other approach than the "It's not perfect but it's better than the alternative" line. If we adopted full-on Europhilia it'd be fine with me, but we'd be competing for the LibDem vote and withdrawing altogether from the WWC. Corbyn's view was very close to that of most Labour voters - the fact that a constituency voted Leave doesn't mean that most Labour voters in it voted that way, and my impression is that the Labour WWC vote (what's left of it) divided pretty evenly.
  • Jobabob said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.


    Were the result reversed the eurosceptics would never have rolled over. Indeed Farage himself said a tight result should trigger a second referendum.

    No way The 48 will rollover while a uneasy coalition of non-voters, bitter xenophobic failures and rightwing frothers sets about wilfully destroying the country and the economy. Sorry to break it to you.
    Bob, it's over mate, you need to move on. We're out of the EU. Real life isn't like life on PB.(or that there London, for that matter). For every tweet that you and Scott share showing that some poor mug put on the spot by a TV crew has had a Brepiphany, I'll show you whole swathes of normal punters who couldn't give a flying fuck what you or anyone else posts on here. It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,079
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.
    Ah the noble poor. More important things than money.

    Gawd bless them. Gawd bless you sir an 'all. You're a gent so you are.
    It's not a question of the poor being "noble". It's just that it should be quite clear from the vote that richer and poorer people tend to have different priorities.
    Am I allowed to say that it is possible that the richer you are the better education you might have had and the more able to assess the issues involved in our decision to cut ourselves off from the single market and leave the EU?

    Surely for calling a spade a spade Tories that isn't too politically incorrect is it?

    That is not to say that there aren't many many people from less well-off backgrounds with a good education. Of course there are. And the majority of them probably voted Remain.
    Indeed, in many ways the Leave campaign with its decrying of experts and focus on poorly educated voters had a distinctly anti-intellectual theme. Lead, of course, by a former Education Secretary.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,195
    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    I get what May is trying to achieve with her stance on EU nationals, to keep as much bargaining power as possible, in theory. But I think it's been played badly. It wasn't necessary to make the comment, and to be honest there is zero risk of us accepting EU nationals while brits get kicked out of european countries (and I say that as a brit immigrant in the EU), it just wouldn't happen. Brits in EU countries are not a problem for any other governments (even in Spain it's still a net positive for the economy), they have no interest in deporting us unless it's a tit-for-tat. The EU wouldn't do deportations if we didn't start it first.

    So May made a mistake there, she put something on the table that was nowhere near the table. If she had said EU nationals can stay, brits abroad would have been safe too. She has in fact made our position less secure than it was previously.

    I say that as someone still hoping May wins (although as a lefty remainer this is because she's the best chance of continuity EU-lite/EEA we have left)

    The official Spanish stance is that Brits might have to leave Spain. We need an EU wide settlement which is why her stance makes sense.
    Indeed. I can imagine those squealing about this would be squealing twice as loudly if we gave an unlimited right to residency and their wasn't reciprocity.

    To see Leavers queuing up to demand we do this is falling in the extreme. This is the consequence of their advocacy.
    I've never been a supporter of unilateral disarmament. I'm surprised to see so many sensible people advocate it.
This discussion has been closed.