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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom
One aspect of the two member surveys that we had overnight is that all the ConHome one was carried out yesterday while the YouGov poll fieldwork started on Friday and went through till yesterday. Given we know that most responses tend to come in during the first period of fieldwork then YouGov was probably more influenced by Friday and Saturday respondents than Sunday and Monday.
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I think this is probably very very accurate and might be the most insightful analysis in a fog of sometimes deliberate confusion.
There's clearly a lot of skullduggery going on, including briefings to press: so I'm taking reports in the media with a pinch of salt.
What will help Leadsom is that all bar Crabb are on the Brexit wing so providing Gove finds something decent inside himself you'd think he would swing behind her unless, as Mike suggests, there's a tactical move to put him into second.
The trouble is, they need to be careful what they wish for. I wouldn't actually rule out Gove beating May with party members. He was, after all, ahead of her in ConHom polling for 3 consecutive months. Memories are short and his knifing of Boris may be forgotten in the heat of battle.
The establishment tories have also proved themselves staggeringly inept.
And although I wouldn't normally trust the Sun, it sounds like some of the content of her speech to MPs was off the wall.
Us blues have a sense of duty to the nation, which weighs all the heavier when our choice will become Prime Minister directly.
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/23f91dce-41c8-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html?siteedition=uk
It looks horribly plausible.
I'd have thought it's in May's interest to donate a few votes to Michael Gove - as these would likely head Leadsom's way once he's out, and if Gove comes in the top 2, May will crush him, and if he's third then his votes will never transfer so Leadsom doesn't have momentum going into the members' vote.
I'd vote for Crabb, but I suspect I'm one of the select few. He's the sort of person you sometimes wonder how he ended up in the Tory party.
BoZo was stabbed. The Gover imploded.
Leadsom had has some very wobbly moments, but is still standing.
If they just believe enough, that she believes enough, anything is possible...
As was briefly mooted at the weekend, I do wonder whether IF May gets a convincing vote and indeed the majority of MPs, there will be intense pressure on Leadsom (if she is second) to stand down in favour of a top job in a May Cabinet.
There was a lot of "we need to get this over with" talk from some but how would the Conservative membership to being excluded from the process ? I do agree with OGH that a protracted campaign (apart from helping the sales of popcorn among those of us enjoying the Conservative dinosaurs tearing lumps out of each other) gives Leadsom a chance as it would allow people to scrutinise May more carefully.
The pro-EU dissidents and the Cameroons are rushing to back May - rather like overthrowing a Communist dictator and electing a Communist as your new leader.
That didn't happen anywhere, did it ?
Which I would not have said ever before, but the facts have changed. Until a new deal is negotated this has to be the number one priority and so the best candidate to be PM will surely be the best candidate to get the best deal "on the subject of the EU".
Your definition of what is best may vary, but the importance of the subject surely should not be underestimated.
Brexit doesn't make me nervous. This part does.
FoM is seen in Brussels as one of the foundations of the union, without it, they say, the EU will crumble. If the UK were to be given three out of the four freedoms then the EU probably is finished. We need someone who can negotiate our way into getting 3.8/4 freedoms and then make changes to the benefits system so that the draw of our overly generous in working and housing benefits stops pulling people in.
I would hope for better from a party that takes the business of government seriously (though it's easier to say this after seeing the youGov figures).
Those like Mike who got on Leadsom early have done extremely well. This next week might well be the time to cash out though, possibly after the second ballot, on the assumption that Fox goes out today.
Fox, Crabb and Gove (they sound like the opposition defence in Roy of the Rovers...) have no chance. Leadsom has a slight chance - but she needs to have a storming campaign that disassociates itself from UKIP/Leave and shows she has the strength of character to be PMin her own right. May is not an ideal candidate by any means. Even without being a Remainer (albeit largely a silent one) her record at the Home Office seems to rest on her longevity in this political graveyard slot, rather than actually getting on top of any of the issues facing our borders and those who can pass through them.
I guess I am a bellwether in this election. Fox, Crabb and Gove - no. May - possibly. Leadsom - outside chance but it is unlikely. Write in for Boris - still my favoured option.
And to those people who think it is unfair to use EU citizens as a 'bargaining chip' (and it does seem uncivilised at best) I would point out that we've already heard EU leaders say they won't negotiate on free movement of people - which is simply another way of using human beings as a bargaining chip.
Leadsom on the other hand is showing serious signs of weakness and inexperience which should make her an easier opponent for May.
I would be very disappointed if Gove were to win. But at 24.0 he looks over priced and I've backed him.
He spent 3 consecutive months ahead of her in ConHome polls.
Given 6 weeks and head to head debates he'd fancy his chances; May looks at Leadsom and surely thinks she can crush her mano a mano.
https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1668576&SctArtId=393248&from=CM&nsl_code=LIME&sourceObjectId=9706178&sourceRevId=1&fee_ind=N&exp_date=20260704-14:55:10
From S&P.
Absent anything else, I suppose we'll have to wait on Mr Carney. Not expecting good news.
.
Hungary to Hold Referendum on EU Migrant Quotas on Oct. 2
ABC News - 4 mins ago
The office of Hungarian President Janos Ader says he has set Oct. 2 as the date for a government-initiated referendum seeking political support ...
Meanwhile, the country drifts, enervated.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/how-remain-failed-inside-story-doomed-campaign
He said the Council's reaction to Brexit was "we shouldn't change anything, just implement existing European policies". "I find this shocking and irresponsible," he said angrily.
There had been warning signs for the EU from previous referendums in Denmark and the Netherlands, he said.
"What are you waiting for? When will the Council recognise that this type of EU - you cannot defend it any more. Europe needs to be reformed... European citizens are not against Europe, they're against this Europe."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36712550
Reminds me of a joke I once heard long ago ..........
Hovercraft boss: Brexit vote has 'brought new inquiries'
The recent fall in the value of the British pound has been taken by many as terrible economic news. But for British companies which are export-focused, it has been a gift because it's made their goods cheaper abroad.
The British Hovercraft Company, based in Kent, has reported a wave of new inquiries from abroad over the past week.
Its owner, Emma Pullen, is now planning a worldwide export drive, saying Brexit has opened up a "brave new world" for UK exporters.
If we send someone who says "four freedoms" then we will negotiate four freedoms with no wriggle room as they will have no reason to compromise.
Only someone demanding as a starting point an end to freedom of movement can negotiate a deal with a slightly restricted but still existing freedom of movement. A good negotiator never opens up with their bottom line.
Yeah, so I couldn't resist. Sue me.
This is the reality of our vote to Leave. Loon-o-Mogg is a Govester. I can't think Andrea is to the left of him on this one.
So it has begun, A50 or not. A candidate for PM, perhaps two, wants to end immediately the right of EU nationals to remain in the UK. As of this afternoon's BA319 CDG - LHR. Have the rEU27 been consulted? What would their view be, I wonder.
All well and good if that's their policy. But it is dreadful, immature, harmful politics and we are contemplating handing these people the reins of power.
The minnows won't care one way or another. For example, there are about 1,000 Slovenians here and ~500 Brits in Slovenia. We do little trade with them and almost none in services. They still get to vote on things. It's the middling countries that are hard to call - Austria, Czechs etc.
Unfortunately, neither the conservatives nor the socialists in Europe want any kind of change or reform as the current system suits them both so well.