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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.

    Indeed, but there is a scenario where the best possible definition of "making it work" is not to do it.

    That the Brexiteers refuse to countenance that reveals the paucity of their thought process
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.

    Again, I'd say these are the kinds of sentiments that those who do not have to worry about where the next meal is coming from or how they will heat their homes like to ascribe to the noble poor. In the real world, having enough to get by on is profoundly important. There is a reason why the current government has been so careful to ensure that pensioners are well looked after financially.

    The voting is clear. The richer you were, the more likely you were to vote Remain.
    The richer you were the less likely you were to be affected by the downsides of EU membership.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.
    Ah the noble poor. More important things than money.

    Gawd bless them. Gawd bless you sir an 'all. You're a gent so you are.
    It's not a question of the poor being "noble". It's just that it should be quite clear from the vote that richer and poorer people tend to have different priorities.

    So your contention is that people were not in swayed by promises to substantially increase public spending, reduce taxes, improve wages and lower housing costs? The poor know their place and are just happy to live frugal lives full of joyful laughter. Or something like that.

    Now you're just being silly for the sake of it.

    I've tried to argue that economic advancement is not the only priority that people have. I think that it is clear from the voting, and from extensive discussions on this website, that people who are better off tend to prioritise economic advancement more highly than people who are less well off. That doesn't make one group of people better, nobler, or more rational than the other. All it means is that they prioritise different things.

    And my contention is that a lot of those voting Leave found promises of more public spending, lower taxes and higher wages very attractive. That may not be the case on here, of course, given that the circumstances of those who post here regularly are not usually typical of the general population. I'd also argue that a lot of well-off Remainers understood that their position would be pretty much unaffected by Brexit, but that it would have a significant and negative impact on those further down the income scale.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Although Mr Senior's claim is a pack of lies.

    Three years ago today one pound sterling bought 18,599 Iranian Rial. Today the pound's low is buying "only" 40,444 Iranian Rial.

    I would love Mr Senior to explain how much lower 40,444 is than 18,599.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,410
    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    I get what May is trying to achieve with her stance on EU nationals, to keep as much bargaining power as possible, in theory. But I think it's been played badly. It wasn't necessary to make the comment, and to be honest there is zero risk of us accepting EU nationals while brits get kicked out of european countries (and I say that as a brit immigrant in the EU), it just wouldn't happen. Brits in EU countries are not a problem for any other governments (even in Spain it's still a net positive for the economy), they have no interest in deporting us unless it's a tit-for-tat. The EU wouldn't do deportations if we didn't start it first.

    So May made a mistake there, she put something on the table that was nowhere near the table. If she had said EU nationals can stay, brits abroad would have been safe too. She has in fact made our position less secure than it was previously.

    I say that as someone still hoping May wins (although as a lefty remainer this is because she's the best chance of continuity EU-lite/EEA we have left)

    The official Spanish stance is that Brits might have to leave Spain. We need an EU wide settlement which is why her stance makes sense.
    Indeed. I can imagine those squealing about this would be squealing twice as loudly if we gave an unlimited right to residency and their wasn't reciprocity.

    To see Leavers queuing up to demand we do this is falling in the extreme. This is the consequence of their advocacy.
    I've never been a supporter of unilateral disarmament. I'm surprised to see so many sensible people advocate it.
    Exactly.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Jobabob said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.


    Were the result reversed the eurosceptics would never have rolled over. Indeed Farage himself said a tight result should trigger a second referendum.

    No way The 48 will rollover while a uneasy coalition of non-voters, bitter xenophobic failures and rightwing frothers sets about wilfully destroying the country and the economy. Sorry to break it to you.
    Bob, it's over mate, you need to move on. We're out of the EU. Real life isn't like life on PB.(or that there London, for that matter). For every tweet that you and Scott share showing that some poor mug put on the spot by a TV crew has had a Brepiphany, I'll show you whole swathes of normal punters who couldn't give a flying fuck what you or anyone else posts on here. It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.
    Sadly the level of debate on this site is now similar to that on Guido Fawkes. A lot of scrolling is required to find decent posts.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.

    Indeed, but there is a scenario where the best possible definition of "making it work" is not to do it.

    That the Brexiteers refuse to countenance that reveals the paucity of their thought process
    That you refuse to let go of the fact the referendum is over and we are doing it shows the paucity of your thought process.

    The argument for "not doing it" was aired to death before the referendum. It lost.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,652

    Scott_P said:

    The answer to Gisela Stuart's Urgent Question...

    @helenlewis: Do you know what would have really protected the rights of EU citizens living in the UK? *Staying in the EU*.

    Precisely. Gisela's audacity was breathtaking.
    There were only two MPs (one Con, one Lab) who stood up in the HoC yesterday to ask about Brits in the EU - the rest were too busy amateur hour virtue signalling.....
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Sean_F said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.

    Hmmm - lots of people with comfortable incomes, homes, etc telling those with rather less that money is unimportant. Let's see how that meme plays out when the proverbial hits the fan.
    On the contrary, it is the richest who tend to be most frightened about loss of money.
    As I said let's see how that plays out when unemployment rises, and wages are squeezed and the prices start rising.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    No - I think this is based on UK reports stemming from Schaueble, a long-standing critic of Juncker's but quite controversial domestically and not seen as a guide to Merkel's thinking. I don't think Juncker is going anywhere and he'll be leading the negotiations with us when we get round to asking for them.
    It has to be touch and go as to whether Juncker will see out his term if he's not replaced, simply because of the possibility of a post-Brexit domino effect that could bring down the entire EU. He and others like him are so far in denial of the EU's defects that they're utterly incapable of addressing them. And if they don't address them, what future for the EU with PVV rampant in the Netherlands, le Pen breathing down the necks of Juppe and Sarkozy in France and AfD taking chunks out of the mainstream in Germany - all big net contributors, all three founder members and all three with elections next year.
    Note that as of polling to date the dominos seem to be standing themselves back up again.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/eu-support-surges-in-denmark-as-brexit-scare-spreads-in-nordics

    I suppose this may change if Brexit turns out to work out really well for the British economy over the next couple of years.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I suspect that many relatively well-off remainers are actually pretty worried that their cosy set up is being threatened.
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    Scott_P said:

    It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.

    Indeed, but there is a scenario where the best possible definition of "making it work" is not to do it.

    That the Brexiteers refuse to countenance that reveals the paucity of their thought process
    Scott, surely even you know that the EU as it is is just unworkable? I'll admit that I don't mind "some" Europe, but the way The EU was headed was just wrong for us as a nation. That the EU seems unwilling to admit it's faults, and barrel on down that route, tells me all I need to know.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    edited July 2016
    Mr. Fire, I agree with that. It'd be interesting to know whether the lack of trust in experts was based on recent poor form (credit crunch especially), because so few sided with Leave or, perhaps my own view, because there wasn't much argument from Cameron et al. beyond appeal to authority.

    Obviously I'm not wholly objective, but it felt to me like (when not insulting English people) Cameron's approach was to appeal to authority rather than make a coherent argument. It didn't help that he claimed his negotiation was good and the failure to get a grip on the migration line.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Stopper, agree entirely. The EU is marching mindlessly towards the path of ever closer integration.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.

    We had access to the world already. All that's changed is that we are going to take ourselves out of the single market.

    We have tariff-free and NTB-free trade with the whole world?

    Or are you claiming that trade deals that get rid of tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers are meaningless? In which case if they're meaningless then what purpose does the Single Market serve?

    No, I am claiming that there are any number of markets in the world and that other EU member states have made a much better fist of accessing them than we have. I also do not believe we are about to negotiate beneficial trade deals with the likes of China, the US and India.

    The Single Market is not just about tariffs, it is about ease of doing business. There are far fewer compliance issues when exporting to an EU member state than when doing so to the US or any number of Asian countries.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.

    We had access to the world already. All that's changed is that we are going to take ourselves out of the single market.

    No - all that's changed is that we will no longer be bound to impose (and pay onto) EU tariffs with the 90%. Major EU exporters to the UK are already screaming for tariff-free trade.

    (It appears we can't negotiate official trade agreements until we actually do leave the EU)
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    What's your threshold?
    I've told you.

    Let's put it another way. Brunei, Qatar, Dubai are all places with a GDP per head, massively in excess of our own. But, if I were given the choice between having their GDP per head, and having their societies, or having our GDP per head, and our societies, I'd choose the latter. Because, I'd be putting a higher value on our democracy and freedom than I would on more money.
    You are worming out of the question* because nobody is forecasting a conversion to an authoritarian absolute monarchy like the nations you cite.

    Let's be specific: If Brexit puts 3 million on the dole, would you consider that a price worth paying?



    .
    The 3 million jobs at risk if we leave the EU was a lie first promoted by Nick Clegg in debate with Farage.

    This was after the author of the research which mentioned the 3 million said that Clegg had drawn an incorrect conclusion from the work. The LSE professor said he was not suggesting that the 3 million jobs would be lost if we left the EU.

    The professor told me he had complained to Clegg but Clegg continued to misrepresent him.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    edited July 2016

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    No - I think this is based on UK reports stemming from Schaueble, a long-standing critic of Juncker's but quite controversial domestically and not seen as a guide to Merkel's thinking. I don't think Juncker is going anywhere and he'll be leading the negotiations with us when we get round to asking for them.
    One thing to add on this: Firing the commission is the job of the European Parliament, not the member states. So even if it was true that Merkel wanted Juncker out - and this claim seems very thinly sourced - it's not obvious that she'd get her way if Juncker decided to just hunker down and Corbyn his way through it.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Sean_F said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.

    Those who have enough to get by on have the luxury of being able to think about other things than money. Unfortunately, many of our countrymen and women are not in that position. If you tell them that they will see £350 million extra a week for the NHS, there will be greater public spending in other areas, taxes will go down, wages will go up and housing costs will be reduced that's a very powerful pitch. Not then delivering on it would be a huge betrayal. Let's see what happens.
    But, in practice it's those who have lots who most fear any decline in the value of their investments. Whereas, those who have less place more value on other things.
    Ah the noble poor. More important things than money.

    Gawd bless them. Gawd bless you sir an 'all. You're a gent so you are.
    It's not a question of the poor being "noble". It's just that it should be quite clear from the vote that richer and poorer people tend to have different priorities.
    Correct - there's not a huge amount of 'nobility' in the we hate foreigners meme but it undoubtedly won votes from somewhere otherwise it would not have featured so strongly in UKIP's campaign.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Pegged to USD since 2001, so not really making the point it thinks it is making. Classic example of how the most basic financial information gets misinterpreted on here.
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,410
    edited July 2016
    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Although Mr Senior's claim is a pack of lies.

    Three years ago today one pound sterling bought 18,599 Iranian Rial. Today the pound's low is buying "only" 40,444 Iranian Rial.

    I would love Mr Senior to explain how much lower 40,444 is than 18,599.
    We are talking about changes post Brexit . The fact that your figures show that the £ sterling was performing much more strongly in the 3 years prior to Brexit only demonstrates that those like you who voted Leave had a death wish .
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited July 2016

    Bob, it's over mate, you need to move on. We're out of the EU.

    So you don't want the government to show leadership, come up with a decent plan, and put it to the House of Commons and the population?

    Or doesn't it matter whether Britain stays in the single market, allows Poles and Romanians to come here when they want, allows millions of Turks to come here in five years' time, or alternatively deports people from the continent who are already here and accepts the deportation of British residents back from Spain; whether Britain becomes just England and Wales, with customs posts going up 10 miles north of Carlisle and people having to change money when travelling from the Home Counties up to the Edinburgh festival or down from Glasgow to see their parents in the English Midlands...none of these questions matter enough for the government to make plans and propose them either to our representatives or to us ourselves, because the GREAT DECISION has been taken in a plebiscite and "LEAVE THE EU" needs to get tattooed on everyone's arse?

    Truth is that the government f*cked the referendum up. Cameron should have kicked the Leavers out of the cabinet and given them jobs on a commission, along with Nigel Farage, to come up with a detailed plan for leaving the EU, with civil service assistance, and that's what should have gone to the people in the referendum.

    Whichever way you look at it, a plan is needed. If no good plan is feasible, then the decision in the plebiscite was wrong.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.

    We had access to the world already. All that's changed is that we are going to take ourselves out of the single market.

    We have tariff-free and NTB-free trade with the whole world?

    Or are you claiming that trade deals that get rid of tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers are meaningless? In which case if they're meaningless then what purpose does the Single Market serve?

    No, I am claiming that there are any number of markets in the world and that other EU member states have made a much better fist of accessing them than we have. I also do not believe we are about to negotiate beneficial trade deals with the likes of China, the US and India.

    The Single Market is not just about tariffs, it is about ease of doing business. There are far fewer compliance issues when exporting to an EU member state than when doing so to the US or any number of Asian countries.
    Given that both India and the USA have said they'd like a deal with us post-Brexit (especially if the Republicans win, but not just them) why do you not believe a deal is possible?

    Given that China has already concluded deals with EFTA nations, why do you not believe a deal is possible?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    chestnut said:

    I suspect that many relatively well-off remainers are actually pretty worried that their cosy set up is being threatened.

    i've spoken to 3 remainers who dress up their woes as some kind of nonsense concern over civil liberties and freedom of movement, on further investigation it turns out one thought it would now be a risk to buy his daughter a horse, one was worrying about the exchange rate for his lavish overseas wedding and one was feeling the pinch after buying his sports car.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931

    Jobabob said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.


    Were the result reversed the eurosceptics would never have rolled over. Indeed Farage himself said a tight result should trigger a second referendum.

    No way The 48 will rollover while a uneasy coalition of non-voters, bitter xenophobic failures and rightwing frothers sets about wilfully destroying the country and the economy. Sorry to break it to you.
    Bob, it's over mate, you need to move on. We're out of the EU. Real life isn't like life on PB.(or that there London, for that matter). For every tweet that you and Scott share showing that some poor mug put on the spot by a TV crew has had a Brepiphany, I'll show you whole swathes of normal punters who couldn't give a flying fuck what you or anyone else posts on here. It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.

    Easier said than done, of course. In the real world the likelihood is that demand will decrease, investments will be frozen and government income will fall. That means public spending cuts and it means tax increases. That's what making it work will look like. And my guess is that at that stage normal punters are going to care a hell of a lot.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    No - I think this is based on UK reports stemming from Schaueble, a long-standing critic of Juncker's but quite controversial domestically and not seen as a guide to Merkel's thinking. I don't think Juncker is going anywhere and he'll be leading the negotiations with us when we get round to asking for them.
    It has to be touch and go as to whether Juncker will see out his term if he's not replaced, simply because of the possibility of a post-Brexit domino effect that could bring down the entire EU. He and others like him are so far in denial of the EU's defects that they're utterly incapable of addressing them. And if they don't address them, what future for the EU with PVV rampant in the Netherlands, le Pen breathing down the necks of Juppe and Sarkozy in France and AfD taking chunks out of the mainstream in Germany - all big net contributors, all three founder members and all three with elections next year.
    Note that as of polling to date the dominos seem to be standing themselves back up again.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/eu-support-surges-in-denmark-as-brexit-scare-spreads-in-nordics

    I suppose this may change if Brexit turns out to work out really well for the British economy over the next couple of years.
    We will never know because we don't know the counterfactual. (I learned this word from the previous Governor of the Bank of England.)
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    chestnut said:

    I suspect that many relatively well-off remainers are actually pretty worried that their cosy set up is being threatened.

    This is the most depressing aspect of why some people voted leave, the number who thought that, by doing so, they would stick it to 'the rich'. The thing is that it will affect the rich, the struggling, the poor and so on equally badly. The wealth gap they fulminate about will still be the same and, likely because of how unemployment and inflation tends to go, the less well off will actually be affected more,. Of course, the elite leavers won't care, they will be fine, such self harm from the great unwashed was just a means to an end.
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    John_N4 said:

    Bob, it's over mate, you need to move on. We're out of the EU.

    So you don't want the government to show leadership, come up with a decent plan, and put it to the House of Commons and the population?

    Or doesn't it matter whether Britain stays in the single market, allows Poles and Romanians to come here when they want, allows millions of Turks to come here in five years' time, or alternatively deports people from the continent who are already here and accepts the deportation of British residents back from Spain; whether Britain becomes just England and Wales, with customs posts going up 10 miles north of Carlisle and people having to change money when travelling from the Home Counties up to the Edinburgh festival or down from Glasgow to see their parents in the English Midlands...none of these questions matter enough for the government to make plans and propose them either to our representatives or to us ourselves, because the GREAT DECISION has been taken in a plebiscite and "LEAVE THE EU" needs to get tattooed on everyone's arse?

    Truth is that the government f*cked the referendum up. Cameron should have kicked the Leavers out of the cabinet and given them jobs on a commission, along with Nigel Farage, to come up with a detailed plan for leaving the EU, and that/s what should have gone to the people in the referendum.

    Whichever way you look at it, a plan is needed. If no good plan is feasible, then the decision in the plebiscite was wrong.
    I've never said a plan isn't needed. What isn't needed is people who don't like the decision bleating, crying and making themselves sick.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.

    We had access to the world already. All that's changed is that we are going to take ourselves out of the single market.

    We have tariff-free and NTB-free trade with the whole world?

    Or are you claiming that trade deals that get rid of tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers are meaningless? In which case if they're meaningless then what purpose does the Single Market serve?

    No, I am claiming that there are any number of markets in the world and that other EU member states have made a much better fist of accessing them than we have. I also do not believe we are about to negotiate beneficial trade deals with the likes of China, the US and India.

    The Single Market is not just about tariffs, it is about ease of doing business. There are far fewer compliance issues when exporting to an EU member state than when doing so to the US or any number of Asian countries.
    Given that both India and the USA have said they'd like a deal with us post-Brexit (especially if the Republicans win, but not just them) why do you not believe a deal is possible?

    Given that China has already concluded deals with EFTA nations, why do you not believe a deal is possible?

    Of course deals are possible. It's what's in the deals that matters. Iceland has a trade deal with China. It took very little negotiating and has worked out very well indeed for the Chinese.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2016

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Although Mr Senior's claim is a pack of lies.

    Three years ago today one pound sterling bought 18,599 Iranian Rial. Today the pound's low is buying "only" 40,444 Iranian Rial.

    I would love Mr Senior to explain how much lower 40,444 is than 18,599.
    We are talking about changes post Brexit . The fact that your figures show that the £ sterling was performing much more strongly in the 3 years prior to Brexit only demonstrates that those like you who voted Leave had a death wish .
    You're talking bullshit is what you're talking. Pound is down post-Brexit, no shit Sherlock everyone knows that. For exporters it is not a bad thing.

    To try and pretend the pound is hitting lows against third world currencies because of a week's movement and ignoring the big picture is pure, unadulterated dishonesty. The pound is lower than it was pre-Brexit but it is categorically not hitting lows against third world nations.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    weejonnie said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    What's your threshold?
    I've told you.

    Let's put it another way. Brunei, Qatar, Dubai are all places with a GDP per head, massively in excess of our own. But, if I were given the choice between having their GDP per head, and having their societies, or having our GDP per head, and our societies, I'd choose the latter. Because, I'd be putting a higher value on our democracy and freedom than I would on more money.
    You are worming out of the question* because nobody is forecasting a conversion to an authoritarian absolute monarchy like the nations you cite.

    Let's be specific: If Brexit puts 3 million on the dole, would you consider that a price worth paying?



    *You are not unique in this, so are many of your fellow Brexiteers.
    Since nobody is predicting such a thing, there's no point in answering such a hypothetical.
    You mean you don't want to answer the question.
    Eddie George said "High unemployment in the North is a worthwhile price to pay for low inflation in the South".

    And in answer to your hypothetical question. The answer is Yes! The needs of the 60 million outweigh the needs of the 3 million.
    At least you are honest. I'll give you that.

    Now we know...
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What isn't needed is people who don't like the decision bleating, crying and making themselves sick.

    Tell Gisela and her pals...
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Jobabob said:

    Mr. Bob, I'd probably take three Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but four would be excessive.

    And there we have it. Pretty much anything is a price worth paying.

    The true voice of a europhobe.
    But you don't seem to place a value on anything other than money.
    Jobabob surely places no value on democracy. An awful man.
    There's a trade-off between sovereignty, democracy, and money. It's a mistake to treat only one of those three as being important.
    What's your threshold?
    I've told you.

    Let's put it another way. Brunei, Qatar, Dubai are all places with a GDP per head, massively in excess of our own. But, if I were given the choice between having their GDP per head, and having their societies, or having our GDP per head, and our societies, I'd choose the latter. Because, I'd be putting a higher value on our democracy and freedom than I would on more money.
    You are worming out of the question* because nobody is forecasting a conversion to an authoritarian absolute monarchy like the nations you cite.

    Let's be specific: If Brexit puts 3 million on the dole, would you consider that a price worth paying?



    .
    The 3 million jobs at risk if we leave the EU was a lie first promoted by Nick Clegg in debate with Farage.

    This was after the author of the research which mentioned the 3 million said that Clegg had drawn an incorrect conclusion from the work. The LSE professor said he was not suggesting that the 3 million jobs would be lost if we left the EU.

    The professor told me he had complained to Clegg but Clegg continued to misrepresent him.
    3 million jobs are at risk . That is not saying the same thing as 3 million jobs will be lost .Even if only 250,000 are lost it is not possible to say which ones of those 3 million they will be .
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our company. We bill mainly in dollars and Euros so our profitability has gone up, and because so many companies have instituted hiring freezes there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU represents 7% of the world's population and 10% of global growth. If we can open ourselves to the 90% of the world's trade rather than just a single market of 10% then that is more opportunity not less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.

    We had access to the world already. All that's changed is that we are going to take ourselves out of the single market.

    We have tariff-free and NTB-free trade with the whole world?

    Or are you claiming that trade deals that get rid of tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers are meaningless? In which case if they're meaningless then what purpose does the Single Market serve?

    No, I am claiming that there are any number of markets in the world and that other EU member states have made a much better fist of accessing them than we have. I also do not believe we are about to negotiate beneficial trade deals with the likes of China, the US and India.

    The Single Market is not just about tariffs, it is about ease of doing business. There are far fewer compliance issues when exporting to an EU member state than when doing so to the US or any number of Asian countries.
    Given that both India and the USA have said they'd like a deal with us post-Brexit (especially if the Republicans win, but not just them) why do you not believe a deal is possible?

    Given that China has already concluded deals with EFTA nations, why do you not believe a deal is possible?

    Of course deals are possible. It's what's in the deals that matters. Iceland has a trade deal with China. It took very little negotiating and has worked out very well indeed for the Chinese.

    Good so deals are possible. I have no qualms with cheaper imports by the way if there is some reciprocity involved. You were complaining earlier about rising prices because of a falling sterling and now you think cheaper imports is a bad thing.

    Which is it, are expensive imports bad or cheap imports bad?
  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Although Mr Senior's claim is a pack of lies.

    Three years ago today one pound sterling bought 18,599 Iranian Rial. Today the pound's low is buying "only" 40,444 Iranian Rial.

    I would love Mr Senior to explain how much lower 40,444 is than 18,599.
    We are talking about changes post Brexit . The fact that your figures show that the £ sterling was performing much more strongly in the 3 years prior to Brexit only demonstrates that those like you who voted Leave had a death wish .
    Picking emerging market currencies that are pegged to the USD is pointless though - all you are saying is that the GBP has been weak against the USD since Brexit, and that the time period is not long enough for those currencies to have had to devalue against the USD (Which they do in steps if at all, rather than floating as the GBP is)
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,605

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Is their equivalent of a 50p piece called a semicolon?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Just taken delivery of a very interesting letter from someone who worked in the City alongside Andrea Leadsom.

    Tease...
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Wouldn't May rather face Leadsom than Gove? She can play the experience card against Leadsom all day long...
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,410

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Rentool, when beta-reading for someone with an unneeded colon, I made a note that they required a colonectomy.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,410
    rkrkrk said:

    Wouldn't May rather face Leadsom than Gove? She can play the experience card against Leadsom all day long...

    Yes but as a former PM didn't say "this is no time for an expert"
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    ToryJim said:

    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    So has the BMA guy
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    rkrkrk said:

    Wouldn't May rather face Leadsom than Gove? She can play the experience card against Leadsom all day long...

    Gove is very unpopular among members. He has no chance of winning the ballot. Leadsom might make a fight of it and force May into unfavourable positions on the single market in doing so.
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @TheWhiteRabbit


    'The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.'

    The troughers are back.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    ToryJim said:

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
    We must hope so, although Theresa May did seem close to starting a pointless dispute with firefighters before Brexit blew up.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    Indeed: Malawana called a referendum, lost, and has had to resign. NHExit?
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Although Mr Senior's claim is a pack of lies.

    Three years ago today one pound sterling bought 18,599 Iranian Rial. Today the pound's low is buying "only" 40,444 Iranian Rial.

    I would love Mr Senior to explain how much lower 40,444 is than 18,599.
    We are talking about changes post Brexit . The fact that your figures show that the £ sterling was performing much more strongly in the 3 years prior to Brexit only demonstrates that those like you who voted Leave had a death wish .
    You're talking bullshit is what you're talking. Pound is down post-Brexit, no shit Sherlock everyone knows that. For exporters it is not a bad thing.

    To try and pretend the pound is hitting lows against third world currencies because of a week's movement and ignoring the big picture is pure, unadulterated dishonesty. The pound is lower than it was pre-Brexit but it is categorically not hitting lows against third world nations.
    You are being completely disingenous . Take the Iranian Rial . 12 months ago 46,000 to the £
    7mmediately prior to Brexit 45,000 to the £ , today 39,500 to the £ . If that is not hitting a low what is ?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,977
    Thrak said:

    chestnut said:

    I suspect that many relatively well-off remainers are actually pretty worried that their cosy set up is being threatened.

    This is the most depressing aspect of why some people voted leave, the number who thought that, by doing so, they would stick it to 'the rich'. The thing is that it will affect the rich, the struggling, the poor and so on equally badly. The wealth gap they fulminate about will still be the same and, likely because of how unemployment and inflation tends to go, the less well off will actually be affected more,. Of course, the elite leavers won't care, they will be fine, such self harm from the great unwashed was just a means to an end.
    Why do you think people voted leave out of spite?

    And do you seriously really think even 4% of the population voted out of spite rather than what they thought was best for themselves...
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ToryJim said:

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
    Chair of the BMA Dr Malawana has resigned.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    ToryJim said:

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
    Perhaps the new Prime Minister can calm things down by appointing Michael Gove as the new Secretary of State for Health.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,931

    The opportunities were already there. All we have done is reduce them by voting to remove ourselves from the single market.

    That said, I do have to concede that so far Brexit seems to be working out pretty well for our s there is less wages pressure than there had been. We can hire talent for less money.

    The EU less.

    If we can get a free trade deal with the Single Market AND be able to unilaterally negotiate trade deals with the other 90% then we could have our cake and eat it too.

    We had access to the world already. All that's changed is that we are going to take ourselves out of the single market.

    We have tariff-free and NTB-free trade with the whole world?

    Or are you claiming that trade deals that get rid of tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers are meaningless? In which case if they're meaningless then what purpose does the Single Market serve?

    No,the US and India.

    The Single Market is not just about tariffs, it is about ease of doing business. There are far fewer compliance issues when exporting to an EU member state than when doing so to the US or any number of Asian countries.
    Given that both India and the USA have said they'd like a deal with us post-Brexit (especially if the Republicans win, but not just them) why do you not believe a deal is possible?

    Given that China has already concluded deals with EFTA nations, why do you not believe a deal is possible?

    Of course deals are possible. It's what's in the deals that matters. Iceland has a trade deal with China. It took very little negotiating and has worked out very well indeed for the Chinese.

    Good so deals are possible. I have no qualms with cheaper imports by the way if there is some reciprocity involved. You were complaining earlier about rising prices because of a falling sterling and now you think cheaper imports is a bad thing.

    Which is it, are expensive imports bad or cheap imports bad?

    Of course deals are possible. I never said otherwise. What is more challenging is getting deals that actually benefit us.

    I don't have a problem with cheap imports in principle, but I do have a major problem with one-way trade deals. We could get very cheap imports from China if we were happy to allow them to dump goods on us. But it may also put a lot of Brits out of work.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,512

    ToryJim said:

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
    Perhaps the new Prime Minister can calm things down by appointing Michael Gove as the new Secretary of State for Health.
    :-)

    That I would like to see.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,410
    Scott_P said:

    ToryJim said:

    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    So has the BMA guy
    Whoa. Not sure the Junior Medics have done themselves a favour here.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,605
    rkrkrk said:

    Wouldn't May rather face Leadsom than Gove? She can play the experience card against Leadsom all day long...

    Six years of doing feck all about migration. Great experience.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
    Chair of the BMA Dr Malawana has resigned.
    Charlie Falconer has resigned.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Wouldn't May rather face Leadsom than Gove? She can play the experience card against Leadsom all day long...

    Gove is very unpopular among members. He has no chance of winning the ballot. Leadsom might make a fight of it and force May into unfavourable positions on the single market in doing so.
    He may be unpopular now. But he was chosen candidate of con. home for leader three months in a row... http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    PlatoSaid said:

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    What makes me smile everyday since 24th June is that the Eurocrats have a diminishing relevance in our lives. Junker's massive hissy fit embodied everything that's wrong with the EU.

    It's so liberating to finally be free.
    He just lost the world's fifth largest economy out of his club during his watch.

    Any other CEO who masterminded that would be out on his ear. The EU? Not even thought to be an option.

    It is astonishing how far removed the EU is from commercial reality. It shows its core purpose not about trade at all, but about forming a united nation. By stealth. We have never had any suggestion that any arrangement we have entered into was subjugating our sovereignty to that of a European super-state. But all of a sudden, once we leave, we have our Establishment saying well, of course it's too difficult to leave, we're bound in too tightly. Well, your bluff has been called, your scheme turned upside down, your chips pissed on.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Although Mr Senior's claim is a pack of lies.

    Three years ago today one pound sterling bought 18,599 Iranian Rial. Today the pound's low is buying "only" 40,444 Iranian Rial.

    I would love Mr Senior to explain how much lower 40,444 is than 18,599.
    We are talking about changes post Brexit . The fact that your figures show that the £ sterling was performing much more strongly in the 3 years prior to Brexit only demonstrates that those like you who voted Leave had a death wish .
    You're talking bullshit is what you're talking. Pound is down post-Brexit, no shit Sherlock everyone knows that. For exporters it is not a bad thing.

    To try and pretend the pound is hitting lows against third world currencies because of a week's movement and ignoring the big picture is pure, unadulterated dishonesty. The pound is lower than it was pre-Brexit but it is categorically not hitting lows against third world nations.
    You are being completely disingenous . Take the Iranian Rial . 12 months ago 46,000 to the £
    7mmediately prior to Brexit 45,000 to the £ , today 39,500 to the £ . If that is not hitting a low what is ?
    A low is something more meaningful than a meagre 12 months.

    12 months is nothing in the movement of third-world pegged currencies that move in step changes and are not freely floating. As anyone who knows what they're talking about knows, so either you're ignorant or trying to trick the ignorant. I'm not sure which is worse.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Wouldn't May rather face Leadsom than Gove? She can play the experience card against Leadsom all day long...

    Gove is very unpopular among members. He has no chance of winning the ballot. Leadsom might make a fight of it and force May into unfavourable positions on the single market in doing so.
    He may be unpopular now. But he was chosen candidate of con. home for leader three months in a row... http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
    That's before he knifed Boris in the back. You have to remember that Boris is extremely popular among members.
  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,733

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Although Mr Senior's claim is a pack of lies.

    Three years ago today one pound sterling bought 18,599 Iranian Rial. Today the pound's low is buying "only" 40,444 Iranian Rial.

    I would love Mr Senior to explain how much lower 40,444 is than 18,599.
    We are talking about changes post Brexit . The fact that your figures show that the £ sterling was performing much more strongly in the 3 years prior to Brexit only demonstrates that those like you who voted Leave had a death wish .
    You're talking bullshit is what you're talking. Pound is down post-Brexit, no shit Sherlock everyone knows that. For exporters it is not a bad thing.

    To try and pretend the pound is hitting lows against third world currencies because of a week's movement and ignoring the big picture is pure, unadulterated dishonesty. The pound is lower than it was pre-Brexit but it is categorically not hitting lows against third world nations.
    You are being completely disingenous . Take the Iranian Rial . 12 months ago 46,000 to the £
    7mmediately prior to Brexit 45,000 to the £ , today 39,500 to the £ . If that is not hitting a low what is ?
    As stated previously - that is the same as against the USD - because the Iranian Rial is NOT a free floating currency, but has a fixed depreciation trend of 2% a year vs the USD. All you are stating is the performance of GBP vs the USD which is a fair enough point (to some degree) but why complicate it with talk of the Iranian Rial as if that shows it in some different light?
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,287
    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Just taken delivery of a very interesting letter from someone who worked in the City alongside Andrea Leadsom.

    Tease...

    On your rise to the top, remember how you treated people on your way up, as they will leak to the press.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Wouldn't May rather face Leadsom than Gove? She can play the experience card against Leadsom all day long...

    Gove is very unpopular among members. He has no chance of winning the ballot. Leadsom might make a fight of it and force May into unfavourable positions on the single market in doing so.
    He may be unpopular now. But he was chosen candidate of con. home for leader three months in a row... http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
    That was then. Now, he's about as popular as a guy with a sign saying "I have the clap" at an orgy...
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    Ishmael_X said:

    Brexit has turned the £ sterling into a 3rd world currency . New lows today against the Bangladeshi Taka , Iranian Rial , and Salvadoran Colon . Only the Venezualan Bolivar Fuerte is doing relatively almost as badly .

    There's a currency called the colon? Well, that's my TIL moment for the day!
    Pegged to USD since 2001, so not really making the point it thinks it is making. Classic example of how the most basic financial information gets misinterpreted on here.
    A pegged colon is a really horrible mental image...
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    And who's even noticing bar the families inconvenienced?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Good so deals are possible. I have no qualms with cheaper imports by the way if there is some reciprocity involved. You were complaining earlier about rising prices because of a falling sterling and now you think cheaper imports is a bad thing.

    Which is it, are expensive imports bad or cheap imports bad?

    Of course deals are possible. I never said otherwise. What is more challenging is getting deals that actually benefit us.

    I don't have a problem with cheap imports in principle, but I do have a major problem with one-way trade deals. We could get very cheap imports from China if we were happy to allow them to dump goods on us. But it may also put a lot of Brits out of work.
    I'm pretty sure it's possible to get a trade deal that works for us. Iceland and Switzerland got deals they thought worked for them.

    The advantage of writing our own trade policy is we have 100% control over determining if it is in our interests or not. If its not in our interests, we won't agree it. If it is, we can. Perfect.
  • Options
    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    eek said:

    Thrak said:

    chestnut said:

    I suspect that many relatively well-off remainers are actually pretty worried that their cosy set up is being threatened.

    This is the most depressing aspect of why some people voted leave, the number who thought that, by doing so, they would stick it to 'the rich'. The thing is that it will affect the rich, the struggling, the poor and so on equally badly. The wealth gap they fulminate about will still be the same and, likely because of how unemployment and inflation tends to go, the less well off will actually be affected more,. Of course, the elite leavers won't care, they will be fine, such self harm from the great unwashed was just a means to an end.
    Why do you think people voted leave out of spite?

    And do you seriously really think even 4% of the population voted out of spite rather than what they thought was best for themselves...
    Because they thought they would benefit and were told as such by the leave campaign, that's what all those undeliverable promises were about, that are now dismissed as barely even aspirations. If you look at US politics you can see that a carefully primed electorate will vote in very large numbers against their interest, ten percent or more.
  • Options

    Jobabob said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.


    Were the result reversed the eurosceptics would never have rolled over. Indeed Farage himself said a tight result should trigger a second referendum.

    No way The 48 will rollover while a uneasy coalition of non-voters, bitter xenophobic failures and rightwing frothers sets about wilfully destroying the country and the economy. Sorry to break it to you.
    Bob, it's over mate, you need to move on. We're out of the EU. Real life isn't like life on PB.(or that there London, for that matter). For every tweet that you and Scott share showing that some poor mug put on the spot by a TV crew has had a Brepiphany, I'll show you whole swathes of normal punters who couldn't give a flying fuck what you or anyone else posts on here. It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.

    Easier said than done, of course. In the real world the likelihood is that demand will decrease, investments will be frozen and government income will fall. That means public spending cuts and it means tax increases. That's what making it work will look like. And my guess is that at that stage normal punters are going to care a hell of a lot.

    I agree entirely, but both sides of the debate are swimming in circles. The Guardian article today really seems to point to the failure of our political establishment to plan for the unthinkable. You can say that it's all Gove and Johnson's fault, and they undoubtedly have a huge part in it, but the Remain camp never really tried to bring all the disaffected on board. Even Cameron was worried that Remain was too "metropolitan elite", but by the time he realised it, it was too late.
    I think the truth is that the EU is deeply unpopular in this country and the immigration crisis has scared some people into pulling up the drawbridge. For me, it was never about immigration, although living and working where I do, I can understand the concerns. We needed a positive case for "some" of the EU, but not all of it. Remain couldn't make that argument, and Cameron's deal was nowhere near good enough.
    The sad truth of it is that it has been so badly handled on both sides that we might end up deep in the brown stuff, but we need to crack on.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
    Chair of the BMA Dr Malawana has resigned.
    He was chair of the Junior Docs Committee.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,410
    Latest BBC leader figures:-


    Theresa May - 132

    Andrea Leadsom - 42

    Michael Gove - 27

    Stephen Crabb - 23

    Liam Fox - 9
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    Mark Senior knows a lot about coins, and very little about money.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited July 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    What makes me smile everyday since 24th June is that the Eurocrats have a diminishing relevance in our lives. Junker's massive hissy fit embodied everything that's wrong with the EU.

    It's so liberating to finally be free.
    He just lost the world's fifth largest economy out of his club during his watch.

    Any other CEO who masterminded that would be out on his ear. The EU? Not even thought to be an option.

    It is astonishing how far removed the EU is from commercial reality. It shows its core purpose not about trade at all, but about forming a united nation. By stealth. We have never had any suggestion that any arrangement we have entered into was subjugating our sovereignty to that of a European super-state. But all of a sudden, once we leave, we have our Establishment saying well, of course it's too difficult to leave, we're bound in too tightly. Well, your bluff has been called, your scheme turned upside down, your chips pissed on.
    I wonder how much longer that claim to be the world's 5th largest economy will be valid.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,208
    MattW said:

    ToryJim said:

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
    Perhaps the new Prime Minister can calm things down by appointing Michael Gove as the new Secretary of State for Health.
    :-)

    That I would like to see.
    Oh yeh, great, we'd have another radical 'visionary' who wanted some kind of top to bottom reformation of the entire system if we got MacBeth Gove at Health. Leave him at Justice.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    I suspect it already has. Just impose it again and have done.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    What makes me smile everyday since 24th June is that the Eurocrats have a diminishing relevance in our lives. Junker's massive hissy fit embodied everything that's wrong with the EU.

    It's so liberating to finally be free.
    He just lost the world's fifth largest economy out of his club during his watch.

    Any other CEO who masterminded that would be out on his ear. The EU? Not even thought to be an option.

    It is astonishing how far removed the EU is from commercial reality. It shows its core purpose not about trade at all, but about forming a united nation. By stealth. We have never had any suggestion that any arrangement we have entered into was subjugating our sovereignty to that of a European super-state. But all of a sudden, once we leave, we have our Establishment saying well, of course it's too difficult to leave, we're bound in too tightly. Well, your bluff has been called, your scheme turned upside down, your chips pissed on.
    A truly British Coup :smiley:

    I did love the Slovenian chappy offering us advice on how to deal with our Velvet Revolution.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,926

    ToryJim said:

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
    Perhaps the new Prime Minister can calm things down by appointing Michael Gove as the new Secretary of State for Health.
    Good job the Gov't can and will devote all it's efforts to sorting this lot out.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    felix said:

    I wonder how much longer that claim to be the world's 5th largest economy will be valid.

    Some reports it's already false due to the currency devaluation
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Jobabob said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.


    Were the result reversed the eurosceptics would never have rolled over. Indeed Farage himself said a tight result should trigger a second referendum.

    No way The 48 will rollover while a uneasy coalition of non-voters, bitter xenophobic failures and rightwing frothers sets about wilfully destroying the country and the economy. Sorry to break it to you.
    Bob, it's over mate, you need to move on. We're out of the EU. Real life isn't like life on PB.(or that there London, for that matter). For every tweet that you and Scott share showing that some poor mug put on the spot by a TV crew has had a Brepiphany, I'll show you whole swathes of normal punters who couldn't give a flying fuck what you or anyone else posts on here. It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.

    Easier said than done, of course. In the real world the likelihood is that demand will decrease, investments will be frozen and government income will fall. That means public spending cuts and it means tax increases. That's what making it work will look like. And my guess is that at that stage normal punters are going to care a hell of a lot.

    I agree entirely, but both sides of the debate are swimming in circles. The Guardian article today really seems to point to the failure of our political establishment to plan for the unthinkable. You can say that it's all Gove and Johnson's fault, and they undoubtedly have a huge part in it, but the Remain camp never really tried to bring all the disaffected on board. Even Cameron was worried that Remain was too "metropolitan elite", but by the time he realised it, it was too late.
    I think the truth is that the EU is deeply unpopular in this country and the immigration crisis has scared some people into pulling up the drawbridge. For me, it was never about immigration, although living and working where I do, I can understand the concerns. We needed a positive case for "some" of the EU, but not all of it. Remain couldn't make that argument, and Cameron's deal was nowhere near good enough.
    The sad truth of it is that it has been so badly handled on both sides that we might end up deep in the brown stuff, but we need to crack on.
    He called us - his own voters - Little Englanders.

    He did this very late in the campaign. We noticed. And won't forgive him either.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Patel backs part unity, though doesn't say who she's voting for. I'm guessing May, but doesn't want to incur the wrath of her campaign colleagues. I guess she also wants a bigger job next time as well.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    ToryJim said:

    TGOHF said:

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    Teachers striking today too - opportunist twats.
    The BMA recommended it to Junior Doctors! Quite extraordinary.
    It looks like junior health minister Alastair Burt has taken the rap and resigned.

    One good outcome from this leadership election is that Jeremy Hunt will be removed from the Health Department.
    I wouldn't have thought that now would be a good time for a new Health Sec. A change would be regarded as a victory by the JDs, probably rightly so as the only reason to change would be to implement a different policy, which almost certainly will mean conceding ground to what is clearly a pretty militant bunch if they're going to reject something that even their own union recommends.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,410

    ToryJim said:

    The Junior Doctors have rejected the latest contract version. I suspect patience will begin to wear thin soon!

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36714792

    I suspect it already has. Just impose it again and have done.
    Indeed
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    What makes me smile everyday since 24th June is that the Eurocrats have a diminishing relevance in our lives. Junker's massive hissy fit embodied everything that's wrong with the EU.

    It's so liberating to finally be free.
    He just lost the world's fifth largest economy out of his club during his watch.

    Any other CEO who masterminded that would be out on his ear. The EU? Not even thought to be an option.

    It is astonishing how far removed the EU is from commercial reality. It shows its core purpose not about trade at all, but about forming a united nation. By stealth. We have never had any suggestion that any arrangement we have entered into was subjugating our sovereignty to that of a European super-state. But all of a sudden, once we leave, we have our Establishment saying well, of course it's too difficult to leave, we're bound in too tightly. Well, your bluff has been called, your scheme turned upside down, your chips pissed on.
    I wonder how much longer that claim to be the world's 5th largest economy will be valid.
    I don't see France or Italy overtaking us any time soon, Brexit or not.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Once again, the last matched price on Betfair for Liam Fox for next Prime Minister is longer than the last matched price for Boris Johnson. I think we can take it that his campaign hasn't convinced.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I wonder how much longer that claim to be the world's 5th largest economy will be valid.

    Some reports it's already false due to the currency devaluation
    Pick your measure. We're pretty much neck and neck with the French. We overtook them in 2014. I think we're 6th largest in constant $ GDP .
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Thrak said:

    chestnut said:

    I suspect that many relatively well-off remainers are actually pretty worried that their cosy set up is being threatened.

    This is the most depressing aspect of why some people voted leave, the number who thought that, by doing so, they would stick it to 'the rich'. The thing is that it will affect the rich, the struggling, the poor and so on equally badly. The wealth gap they fulminate about will still be the same and, likely because of how unemployment and inflation tends to go, the less well off will actually be affected more,. Of course, the elite leavers won't care, they will be fine, such self harm from the great unwashed was just a means to an end.
    People largely voted leave because they believe there will be a better society for their children at the end of the initial turbulence, but no, they won't lose sleep over bankers' pensions diminishing and BTL landlords' 'assets' depreciating.

    It's why Remain lost. They simply don't understand the lives most people live.

    Without trying to frighten the financial life out of people, how much do you think Remain would have achieved in the vote? 25%?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    I wonder how much longer that claim to be the world's 5th largest economy will be valid.

    Some reports it's already false due to the currency devaluation
    Pick your measure. We're pretty much neck and neck with the French. I think we're 6th largest in constant $ GDP .
    I think if May wins convincingly then Sterling will strengthen and we'll put some distance between France.
  • Options
    JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    PlatoSaid said:

    Jobabob said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.


    Were the result reversed the eurosceptics would never have rolled over. Indeed Farage himself said a tight result should trigger a second referendum.

    No way The 48 will rollover while a uneasy coalition of non-voters, bitter xenophobic failures and rightwing frothers sets about wilfully destroying the country and the economy. Sorry to break it to you.
    Bob, it's over mate, you need to move on. We're out of the EU. Real life isn't like life on PB.(or that there London, for that matter). For every tweet that you and Scott share showing that some poor mug put on the spot by a TV crew has had a Brepiphany, I'll show you whole swathes of normal punters who couldn't give a flying fuck what you or anyone else posts on here. It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.

    Easier said than done, of course. In the real world the likelihood is that demand will decrease, investments will be frozen and government income will fall. That means public spending cuts and it means tax increases. That's what making it work will look like. And my guess is that at that stage normal punters are going to care a hell of a lot.

    I agree entirely, but both sides of the debate are swimming in circles. The Guardian article today really seems to point to the failure of our political establishment to plan for the unthinkable. You can say that it's all Gove and Johnson's fault, and they undoubtedly have a huge part in it, but the Remain camp never really tried to bring all the disaffected on board. Even Cameron was worried that Remain was too "metropolitan elite", but by the time he realised it, it was too late.
    I think the truth is that the EU is deeply unpopular in this country and the immigration crisis has scared some people into pulling up the drawbridge. For me, it was never about immigration, although living and working where I do, I can understand the concerns. We needed a positive case for "some" of the EU, but not all of it. Remain couldn't make that argument, and Cameron's deal was nowhere near good enough.
    The sad truth of it is that it has been so badly handled on both sides that we might end up deep in the brown stuff, but we need to crack on.
    He called us - his own voters - Little Englanders.

    He did this very late in the campaign. We noticed. And won't forgive him either.
    He got that right – the Little Englanders bit.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,410

    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    What makes me smile everyday since 24th June is that the Eurocrats have a diminishing relevance in our lives. Junker's massive hissy fit embodied everything that's wrong with the EU.

    It's so liberating to finally be free.
    He just lost the world's fifth largest economy out of his club during his watch.

    Any other CEO who masterminded that would be out on his ear. The EU? Not even thought to be an option.

    It is astonishing how far removed the EU is from commercial reality. It shows its core purpose not about trade at all, but about forming a united nation. By stealth. We have never had any suggestion that any arrangement we have entered into was subjugating our sovereignty to that of a European super-state. But all of a sudden, once we leave, we have our Establishment saying well, of course it's too difficult to leave, we're bound in too tightly. Well, your bluff has been called, your scheme turned upside down, your chips pissed on.
    I wonder how much longer that claim to be the world's 5th largest economy will be valid.
    I don't see France or Italy overtaking us any time soon, Brexit or not.
    Currency volatility has pushed us down a place as its all denominated in USD and the pound is not performing as well
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,977
    Jobabob said:



    He got that right – the Little Englanders bit.

    If only we had the old ignore button on Ed's javascript....
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It's just a scratch...

    @lindayueh: #Aviva suspended dealing on its £1.8bn UK property fund, <24 hours after #StandardLife due to high outflows #Brexit https://t.co/eCBDqlT2XI
  • Options
    Jobabob said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Jobabob said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I can't believe that so many of the vociferous PB remainers are still in denial! We are leaving the EU, get over it.



    No way The 48 will rollover while a uneasy coalition of non-voters, bitter xenophobic failures and rightwing frothers sets about wilfully destroying the country and the economy. Sorry to break it to you.
    Bob, it's over mate, you need to move on. We're out of the EU. Real life isn't like life on PB.(or that there London, for that matter). For every tweet that you and Scott share showing that some poor mug put on the spot by a TV crew has had a Brepiphany, I'll show you whole swathes of normal punters who couldn't give a flying fuck what you or anyone else posts on here. It's happening, and we need all the major political parties to stop thrashing off and get on with making it work.

    Easier said than done, of course. In the real world the likelihood is that demand will decrease, investments will be frozen and government income will fall. That means public spending cuts and it means tax increases. That's what making it work will look like. And my guess is that at that stage normal punters are going to care a hell of a lot.

    I agree entirely, but both sides of the debate are swimming in circles. The Guardian article today really seems to point to the failure of our political establishment to plan for the unthinkable. You can say that it's all Gove and Johnson's fault, and they undoubtedly have a huge part in it, but the Remain camp never really tried to bring all the disaffected on board. Even Cameron was worried that Remain was too "metropolitan elite", but by the time he realised it, it was too late.
    I think the truth is that the EU is deeply unpopular in this country and the immigration crisis has scared some people into pulling up the drawbridge. For me, it was never about immigration, although living and working where I do, I can understand the concerns. We needed a positive case for "some" of the EU, but not all of it. Remain couldn't make that argument, and Cameron's deal was nowhere near good enough.
    The sad truth of it is that it has been so badly handled on both sides that we might end up deep in the brown stuff, but we need to crack on.
    He called us - his own voters - Little Englanders.

    He did this very late in the campaign. We noticed. And won't forgive him either.
    He got that right – the Little Englanders bit.
    There you go again, Bob. That attitude, right there, is why the country may well be on it's arse very soon.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    Once again, the last matched price on Betfair for Liam Fox for next Prime Minister is longer than the last matched price for Boris Johnson. I think we can take it that his campaign hasn't convinced.

    Fingers cross out first (£9.60 :) )
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    chestnut said:

    Thrak said:

    chestnut said:

    I suspect that many relatively well-off remainers are actually pretty worried that their cosy set up is being threatened.

    This is the most depressing aspect of why some people voted leave, the number who thought that, by doing so, they would stick it to 'the rich'. The thing is that it will affect the rich, the struggling, the poor and so on equally badly. The wealth gap they fulminate about will still be the same and, likely because of how unemployment and inflation tends to go, the less well off will actually be affected more,. Of course, the elite leavers won't care, they will be fine, such self harm from the great unwashed was just a means to an end.
    People largely voted leave because they believe there will be a better society for their children at the end of the initial turbulence, but no, they won't lose sleep over bankers' pensions diminishing and BTL landlords' 'assets' depreciating.

    It's why Remain lost. They simply don't understand the lives most people live.

    Without trying to frighten the financial life out of people, how much do you think Remain would have achieved in the vote? 25%?
    If the UK economy tanked by 25% i.e. more than three times worse than the 2008 crash, we'd be back to 1996.

    For most people, including pbers, the economy is entirely personal. I've felt poor when the country was prosperous, rich when its been struggling. Some people are highly geared and will sweat every time there's a hint of a rate rise. Others wouldn't care.

    If we've learned one thing about the referendum campaign (and I do hope it's more than that), you can't talk macroeconomic indicators to poor people.

  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,942
    I see the smiling Jemima's have got a taste for being bolshy.

    From what I hear the disputes are little if anything to do with the contract now - simply the bubbling up of discontent with an un-strategic and bureaucratic service inconsiderate to the needs of the new staffing demographic.

    Basically Doctor's expect to have more of a life than they used to before....
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,652
    felix said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    BBC News Lead Story:

    Brexit leaders 'leaving the boat' - EU Commission boss Juncker

    Quelle Surprise!
    Who bothers what he says anyway? He'll be out of a job anytime soon if Angel Merkel has her way .....pity she didn't listen to Cameron who strongly but alas unsuccessfully opposed his original appointment.

    What makes me smile everyday since 24th June is that the Eurocrats have a diminishing relevance in our lives. Junker's massive hissy fit embodied everything that's wrong with the EU.

    It's so liberating to finally be free.
    He just lost the world's fifth largest economy out of his club during his watch.

    Any other CEO who masterminded that would be out on his ear. The EU? Not even thought to be an option.

    It is astonishing how far removed the EU is from commercial reality. It shows its core purpose not about trade at all, but about forming a united nation. By stealth. We have never had any suggestion that any arrangement we have entered into was subjugating our sovereignty to that of a European super-state. But all of a sudden, once we leave, we have our Establishment saying well, of course it's too difficult to leave, we're bound in too tightly. Well, your bluff has been called, your scheme turned upside down, your chips pissed on.
    I wonder how much longer that claim to be the world's 5th largest economy will be valid.
    I suspect in notional terms we no longer are.....
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,605
    MaxPB said:

    Patel backs part unity, though doesn't say who she's voting for. I'm guessing May, but doesn't want to incur the wrath of her campaign colleagues. I guess she also wants a bigger job next time as well.

    Leadsom stole the limelight in the debates, standing at the podium that PP will have thought should have been hers. So I agree - probably voting for May but doesn't want to look like another Leave backstabber.
  • Options
    I still believe Leadsom is potentially toxic and her financial background will be a millstone - she ain't no uniter of the country
  • Options
    shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited July 2016
    If brexit goes titsup, *everybody* (excepting the hardcore tory remainiacs) is going to put the blame in just one place:

    'Crispin Blunt, the Conservative MP who chairs the foreign affairs committee, told Oliver Letwin that it was a “dereliction of duty” for David Cameron not to make any contingency planning for a Brexit vote. There were only two possible outcomes from the referendum, he said. And, since Cameron said he was planning to remain as prime minister whatever the result, he should have planned for a leave vote, he said.'

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jul/05/brexit-live-tory-leadership-tom-watson-unions-jeremy-corbyn
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