politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom
One aspect of the two member surveys that we had overnight is that all the ConHome one was carried out yesterday while the YouGov poll fieldwork started on Friday and went through till yesterday. Given we know that most responses tend to come in during the first period of fieldwork then YouGov was probably more influenced by Friday and Saturday respondents than Sunday and Monday.
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Very interesting thread.
I think this is probably very very accurate and might be the most insightful analysis in a fog of sometimes deliberate confusion.
There's clearly a lot of skullduggery going on, including briefings to press: so I'm taking reports in the media with a pinch of salt.
What will help Leadsom is that all bar Crabb are on the Brexit wing so providing Gove finds something decent inside himself you'd think he would swing behind her unless, as Mike suggests, there's a tactical move to put him into second.
The trouble is, they need to be careful what they wish for. I wouldn't actually rule out Gove beating May with party members. He was, after all, ahead of her in ConHom polling for 3 consecutive months. Memories are short and his knifing of Boris may be forgotten in the heat of battle.
The establishment tories have also proved themselves staggeringly inept.0 -
It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.0
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Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?0
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Not the same as Corbyn if this is about Brexit not Conservatism in general. Is it May vs Leadsom or May vs any donkey wearing a Brexit rosette? If the latter then replacing Leadsom with Gove (and arguably even Fox) means chucking away May's "no time for a novice" trump card.0
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ConHome members are becoming very pro-Leadsom, but then there are more UKIP members (or UKIP inclined Tories) on there than moderates. Given that Gove has discredited himself she is clearly picking up a lot of the more ardent leave people but, despite the referendum result, that wing of the tory party is always going to be in the minority.
And although I wouldn't normally trust the Sun, it sounds like some of the content of her speech to MPs was off the wall.0 -
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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5th, like Gove.0
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My current view is that if it is Leadsom versus May in the Members’ ballot then the former is in with a very good chance. It’ll be a bit like Corbyn versus Burnham where the former appealed to the selectorate’s “heart”.
Us blues have a sense of duty to the nation, which weighs all the heavier when our choice will become Prime Minister directly.0 -
Hope not, has to be Fox fifth.rottenborough said:5th, like Gove.
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I missed Gideon Rachman's article in the FT yesterday about how relations between Britain and the EU could progressively deteriorate:
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/23f91dce-41c8-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html?siteedition=uk
It looks horribly plausible.0 -
Most sophisticated electorate in the world.....and most humble as well.
I'd have thought it's in May's interest to donate a few votes to Michael Gove - as these would likely head Leadsom's way once he's out, and if Gove comes in the top 2, May will crush him, and if he's third then his votes will never transfer so Leadsom doesn't have momentum going into the members' vote.
I'd vote for Crabb, but I suspect I'm one of the select few. He's the sort of person you sometimes wonder how he ended up in the Tory party.0 -
According to BBC - 1st round of the election between 11:00 BST and 18:00 BST. - Results expected at about 19:00 BST.rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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Worth remembering Leadsom is at best the Brexiteers 3rd choice.
BoZo was stabbed. The Gover imploded.
Leadsom had has some very wobbly moments, but is still standing.
If they just believe enough, that she believes enough, anything is possible...0 -
Morning again all
As was briefly mooted at the weekend, I do wonder whether IF May gets a convincing vote and indeed the majority of MPs, there will be intense pressure on Leadsom (if she is second) to stand down in favour of a top job in a May Cabinet.
There was a lot of "we need to get this over with" talk from some but how would the Conservative membership to being excluded from the process ? I do agree with OGH that a protracted campaign (apart from helping the sales of popcorn among those of us enjoying the Conservative dinosaurs tearing lumps out of each other) gives Leadsom a chance as it would allow people to scrutinise May more carefully.
The pro-EU dissidents and the Cameroons are rushing to back May - rather like overthrowing a Communist dictator and electing a Communist as your new leader.
That didn't happen anywhere, did it ?0 -
Given that negotiating with the EU is by far now the single most important issue of the next two+ years it seems entirely reasonable to make it a consideration.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
Which I would not have said ever before, but the facts have changed. Until a new deal is negotated this has to be the number one priority and so the best candidate to be PM will surely be the best candidate to get the best deal "on the subject of the EU".
Your definition of what is best may vary, but the importance of the subject surely should not be underestimated.0 -
Leave supporting MPs will surely get together to decide which of Gove, Leadsom and Fox has the best chance of beating May in the membership election and then get behind that candidate?0
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1.18 GBP ->EUR
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If the first Tory candidate out of the running is Fox, does that not mean his ministerial hopes and raison d'etre for standing is also shot?0
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If I were an MP I think I would throw Crabb a bone in the first round, but vote for May later. He isn't experienced enough, and I'd like reassurances about the extent to which his faith informs his judgments.tpfkar said:Most sophisticated electorate in the world.....and most humble as well.
I'd have thought it's in May's interest to donate a few votes to Michael Gove - as these would likely head Leadsom's way once he's out, and if Gove comes in the top 2, May will crush him, and if he's third then his votes will never transfer so Leadsom doesn't have momentum going into the members' vote.
I'd vote for Crabb, but I suspect I'm one of the select few. He's the sort of person you sometimes wonder how he ended up in the Tory party.0 -
Normal approach would be to do the deal at the time you drop out, in return for the endorsement and hope that your supporters act like a bloc. It will depend on how much May thinks she needs his help (or fears his swinging behind AL - which is politically what we would expect).SimonStClare said:If the first Tory candidate out of the running is Fox, does that not mean his ministerial hopes and raison d'etre for standing is also shot?
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Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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It'll be Leadsom unless Gove beats her in the first round. Is it possible to bet on both Fox and Crabb departing the contest today? I think that's a strong possibility.David_Evershed said:Leave supporting MPs will surely get together to decide which of Gove, Leadsom and Fox has the best chance of beating May in the membership election and then get behind that candidate?
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FPT: Mr. Tonda, indeed. MPs need to ensure they get two candidates, either of whom they could accept (or, failing that, the three worst are defenestrated before the members get a vote).
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MI5 need time to do their workMarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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Brexit doesn't make me nervous. This part does.0 -
Precisely - I don't think we'll make that mistake again. I voted for IDS; there's no way I'd vote for Leadsom.logical_song said:
Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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I suspect the answer to the Q is that, were it not for Crabb's religion, he wouldn't be in the Tories to start with. Perhaps he is the leading edge (evangelist?) for US-style right-wing politics, where religious views trump economic (self-interest)?Tissue_Price said:
If I were an MP I think I would throw Crabb a bone in the first round, but vote for May later. He isn't experienced enough, and I'd like reassurances about the extent to which his faith informs his judgments.tpfkar said:Most sophisticated electorate in the world.....and most humble as well.
I'd have thought it's in May's interest to donate a few votes to Michael Gove - as these would likely head Leadsom's way once he's out, and if Gove comes in the top 2, May will crush him, and if he's third then his votes will never transfer so Leadsom doesn't have momentum going into the members' vote.
I'd vote for Crabb, but I suspect I'm one of the select few. He's the sort of person you sometimes wonder how he ended up in the Tory party.
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Mr. P, I do wonder if Boris could've carried on.0
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Which is why we need someone who is pragmatic and doesn't have pre-determined red lines. If we get an ideologically pure type as PM who has said we will leave FoM come what may then there will be a very high price to pay for that, if we have someone who isn't bothered but is able to manoeuvre some restrictions on FoM in return for reciprocal restrictions we'll be in a better position.Philip_Thompson said:
Given that negotiating with the EU is by far now the single most important issue of the next two+ years it seems entirely reasonable to make it a consideration.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
Which I would not have said ever before, but the facts have changed. Until a new deal is negotated this has to be the number one priority and so the best candidate to be PM will surely be the best candidate to get the best deal "on the subject of the EU".
Your definition of what is best may vary, but the importance of the subject surely should not be underestimated.
FoM is seen in Brussels as one of the foundations of the union, without it, they say, the EU will crumble. If the UK were to be given three out of the four freedoms then the EU probably is finished. We need someone who can negotiate our way into getting 3.8/4 freedoms and then make changes to the benefits system so that the draw of our overly generous in working and housing benefits stops pulling people in.0 -
That's very unfair on IDS. He'd spent four years as a shadow Cabinet minister before standing for Leader of the Opposition.logical_song said:
Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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There are only 329 possible votes AFAIAA. There are only 2 counters. Won't take an hour but need to agree totals with candidates etcMarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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Because IIRC only one person counts the votes: the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady.MarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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Why did the governing group stir up the issue of existing migrants? New Government policy making after the referendum, has got off to a deeply unimpressive start with this bargaining chip approach to present migrants. It was announced by Mrs May on Sunday and then repeated by Hammond etc yesterday. But by the end of the day back tracking started and a more emollient tone was being used in the face of opposition from LEAVErs and Labour REMAINers. A problem in that the established civil service and current Govt continue to make basic errors. Messrs May, Hammond, Osborne, Sir Humphries etc remain out of touch. Maybe a full clear out is required? What I do not yet see is any intensive focus in the media on this obvious blunder and asking where the buck stops for that.0
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When did freedom of movement become one of the foundations of the union? Does it go back further than Maastricht?MaxPB said:
Which is why we need someone who is pragmatic and doesn't have pre-determined red lines. If we get an ideologically pure type as PM who has said we will leave FoM come what may then there will be a very high price to pay for that, if we have someone who isn't bothered but is able to manoeuvre some restrictions on FoM in return for reciprocal restrictions we'll be in a better position.Philip_Thompson said:
Given that negotiating with the EU is by far now the single most important issue of the next two+ years it seems entirely reasonable to make it a consideration.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
Which I would not have said ever before, but the facts have changed. Until a new deal is negotated this has to be the number one priority and so the best candidate to be PM will surely be the best candidate to get the best deal "on the subject of the EU".
Your definition of what is best may vary, but the importance of the subject surely should not be underestimated.
FoM is seen in Brussels as one of the foundations of the union, without it, they say, the EU will crumble. If the UK were to be given three out of the four freedoms then the EU probably is finished. We need someone who can negotiate our way into getting 3.8/4 freedoms and then make changes to the benefits system so that the draw of our overly generous in working and housing benefits stops pulling people in.0 -
Of course he could - it's bizarre that he pulled out.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. P, I do wonder if Boris could've carried on.
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Except that - they all hate each other!David_Evershed said:Leave supporting MPs will surely get together to decide which of Gove, Leadsom and Fox has the best chance of beating May in the membership election and then get behind that candidate?
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And she has wobbled now on A50 as well - the "submit the minute I am elected" position has gone. Whatever else she is, resolute/resilient is not up there.Scott_P said:Worth remembering Leadsom is at best the Brexiteers 3rd choice.
BoZo was stabbed. The Gover imploded.
Leadsom had has some very wobbly moments, but is still standing.
If they just believe enough, that she believes enough, anything is possible...0 -
And see Hague in the Telegraph today - the Tory Party has moved on from Leave and Remain.TudorRose said:
Except that - they all hate each other!David_Evershed said:Leave supporting MPs will surely get together to decide which of Gove, Leadsom and Fox has the best chance of beating May in the membership election and then get behind that candidate?
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I'm not sure she is that good...logical_song said:Leadsom = IDS
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Do Tory MPs in supposedly neutral positions (e.g. Bercow) get a vote?ToryJim said:
There are only 329 possible votes AFAIAA. There are only 2 counters. Won't take an hour but need to agree totals with candidates etcMarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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One hour to count 330 votes still sounds a long time, even if there is only one counter and he stops halfway through for a cup of tea and a biscuit. Perhaps one of the wealthier pb-ers could head down to the bank and withdraw 330 crisp tenners, and let us know.AndyJS said:
Because IIRC only one person counts the votes: the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady.MarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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@lindayueh: #Brexit Pound hits fresh 31 year low vs $ of $1.3115 & fell to 84.91 per € before BOE gov Carney presser at 11am BST https://t.co/WMFvnOWZOT0
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"My current view is that if it is Leadsom versus May in the Members’ ballot then the former is in with a very good chance. It’ll be a bit like Corbyn versus Burnham"
I would hope for better from a party that takes the business of government seriously (though it's easier to say this after seeing the youGov figures).
Those like Mike who got on Leadsom early have done extremely well. This next week might well be the time to cash out though, possibly after the second ballot, on the assumption that Fox goes out today.0 -
Unlike Labour electing Corbyn, the Conservative members have the responsibility to vote for the next PM. It was OK for the Labour members to go off on a flight of fancy. That is not open to us.
Fox, Crabb and Gove (they sound like the opposition defence in Roy of the Rovers...) have no chance. Leadsom has a slight chance - but she needs to have a storming campaign that disassociates itself from UKIP/Leave and shows she has the strength of character to be PMin her own right. May is not an ideal candidate by any means. Even without being a Remainer (albeit largely a silent one) her record at the Home Office seems to rest on her longevity in this political graveyard slot, rather than actually getting on top of any of the issues facing our borders and those who can pass through them.
I guess I am a bellwether in this election. Fox, Crabb and Gove - no. May - possibly. Leadsom - outside chance but it is unlikely. Write in for Boris - still my favoured option.0 -
Prior to the Maastricht Treaty and the concept of 'Citizenship of the European Union', the European Communities treaties provided guarantees for the free movement of economically active persons, but not, generally, for others.DecrepitJohnL said:
When did freedom of movement become one of the foundations of the union? Does it go back further than Maastricht?MaxPB said:
Which is why we need someone who is pragmatic and doesn't have pre-determined red lines. If we get an ideologically pure type as PM who has said we will leave FoM come what may then there will be a very high price to pay for that, if we have someone who isn't bothered but is able to manoeuvre some restrictions on FoM in return for reciprocal restrictions we'll be in a better position.Philip_Thompson said:
Given that negotiating with the EU is by far now the single most important issue of the next two+ years it seems entirely reasonable to make it a consideration.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
Which I would not have said ever before, but the facts have changed. Until a new deal is negotated this has to be the number one priority and so the best candidate to be PM will surely be the best candidate to get the best deal "on the subject of the EU".
Your definition of what is best may vary, but the importance of the subject surely should not be underestimated.
FoM is seen in Brussels as one of the foundations of the union, without it, they say, the EU will crumble. If the UK were to be given three out of the four freedoms then the EU probably is finished. We need someone who can negotiate our way into getting 3.8/4 freedoms and then make changes to the benefits system so that the draw of our overly generous in working and housing benefits stops pulling people in.0 -
A lot of Remain MPs seem to be keen on that line.DearPB said:
And see Hague in the Telegraph today - the Tory Party has moved on from Leave and Remain.TudorRose said:
Except that - they all hate each other!David_Evershed said:Leave supporting MPs will surely get together to decide which of Gove, Leadsom and Fox has the best chance of beating May in the membership election and then get behind that candidate?
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Bercow is not a Tory MPnot_on_fire said:
Do Tory MPs in supposedly neutral positions (e.g. Bercow) get a vote?ToryJim said:
There are only 329 possible votes AFAIAA. There are only 2 counters. Won't take an hour but need to agree totals with candidates etcMarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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I suspect the official line is a result "by" 7 not "at" 7. It also allows for candidates to talk, trade and come to a position prior to the announcement.DecrepitJohnL said:
One hour to count 330 votes still sounds a long time, even if there is only one counter and he stops halfway through for a cup of tea and a biscuit. Perhaps one of the wealthier pb-ers could head down to the bank and withdraw 330 crisp tenners, and let us know.AndyJS said:
Because IIRC only one person counts the votes: the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady.MarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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I think the Government line yesterday was sensible. One of the problems of having a transparent leadership election is that all the prospective PMs are disclosing their negotiating positions, which will undermine their ability to bargain after A50. Keeping all options open is the only way to approach things at present in my view.TCPoliticalBetting said:Why did the governing group stir up the issue of existing migrants? New Government policy making after the referendum, has got off to a deeply unimpressive start with this bargaining chip approach to present migrants. It was announced by Mrs May on Sunday and then repeated by Hammond etc yesterday. But by the end of the day back tracking started and a more emollient tone was being used in the face of opposition from LEAVErs and Labour REMAINers. A problem in that the established civil service and current Govt continue to make basic errors. Messrs May, Hammond, Osborne, Sir Humphries etc remain out of touch. Maybe a full clear out is required? What I do not yet see is any intensive focus in the media on this obvious blunder and asking where the buck stops for that.
And to those people who think it is unfair to use EU citizens as a 'bargaining chip' (and it does seem uncivilised at best) I would point out that we've already heard EU leaders say they won't negotiate on free movement of people - which is simply another way of using human beings as a bargaining chip.0 -
Yes. In general, strong currencies hurt exporters by pushing up prices, yet here we see it as a national tragedy that the pound falls. Did Lamont sing in his bath in vain?John_M said:0 -
I think people are underestimating Gove's chances should he make the final two. For many he is now beyond the pale and for me he will remain there. But he is the most intelligent and articulate of all the candidates and in a heads up with May he might win the argument and turn support back in his favour.
Leadsom on the other hand is showing serious signs of weakness and inexperience which should make her an easier opponent for May.
I would be very disappointed if Gove were to win. But at 24.0 he looks over priced and I've backed him.0 -
I saw him described as the Anti-Establishment Candidate on Sky. I was Eh? He's no David Davis.tpfkar said:Most sophisticated electorate in the world.....and most humble as well.
I'd have thought it's in May's interest to donate a few votes to Michael Gove - as these would likely head Leadsom's way once he's out, and if Gove comes in the top 2, May will crush him, and if he's third then his votes will never transfer so Leadsom doesn't have momentum going into the members' vote.
I'd vote for Crabb, but I suspect I'm one of the select few. He's the sort of person you sometimes wonder how he ended up in the Tory party.0 -
And indeed may never have been one...RochdalePioneers said:
Bercow is not a Tory MPnot_on_fire said:
Do Tory MPs in supposedly neutral positions (e.g. Bercow) get a vote?ToryJim said:
There are only 329 possible votes AFAIAA. There are only 2 counters. Won't take an hour but need to agree totals with candidates etcMarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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For very obvious reasons, except to a Labour remainer, those two are inseparable. 17.5 million people voted to leave the EU. The next British Prime Minister needs to be staggeringly competent on the subject.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. .
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Surely it's more important not to make any mistakes than get the result out quickly.DecrepitJohnL said:
One hour to count 330 votes still sounds a long time, even if there is only one counter and he stops halfway through for a cup of tea and a biscuit. Perhaps one of the wealthier pb-ers could head down to the bank and withdraw 330 crisp tenners, and let us know.AndyJS said:
Because IIRC only one person counts the votes: the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady.MarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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Sam Coates said the reason the contest is so long is that Mr Cameron wanted to play PM at the next G20 meeting. So there would be forces against a coronation!stodge said:Morning again all
As was briefly mooted at the weekend, I do wonder whether IF May gets a convincing vote and indeed the majority of MPs, there will be intense pressure on Leadsom (if she is second) to stand down in favour of a top job in a May Cabinet.
There was a lot of "we need to get this over with" talk from some but how would the Conservative membership to being excluded from the process ? I do agree with OGH that a protracted campaign (apart from helping the sales of popcorn among those of us enjoying the Conservative dinosaurs tearing lumps out of each other) gives Leadsom a chance as it would allow people to scrutinise May more carefully.
The pro-EU dissidents and the Cameroons are rushing to back May - rather like overthrowing a Communist dictator and electing a Communist as your new leader.
That didn't happen anywhere, did it ?
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Whereas poor inexperienced Andrea was just heading up bank departments aged 30.AlastairMeeks said:
That's very unfair on IDS. He'd spent four years as a shadow Cabinet minister before standing for Leader of the Opposition.logical_song said:
Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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I said the same below, first post. I think Gove could beat May tbh. They need to be very careful what they wish for.stjohn said:I think people are underestimating Gove's chances should he make the final two. For many he is now beyond the pale and for me he will remain there. But he is the most intelligent and articulate of all the candidates and in a heads up with May he might win the argument and turn support back in his favour.
I would be very disappointed if Gove were to win. But at 24.0 he looks over priced and I've backed him.
He spent 3 consecutive months ahead of her in ConHome polls.
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Anyone would think there has just been a referendum on the UK's future membership of the EU - in which a mandate to Leave secured more votes than any party/person/thing ever has done in British history.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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For ANY Tories whose membership lapsed in the last 3 months - you can still renew your subscription and vote under the current *grace period* rules.0
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I agree - he was formidable before last Thursday; he's formidable now. The idea that May would rather go up against Gove on the basis of him having a bad week and ignoring his track record is silly.stjohn said:I think people are underestimating Gove's chances should he make the final two. For many he is now beyond the pale and for me he will remain there. But he is the most intelligent and articulate of all the candidates and in a heads up with May he might win the argument and turn support back in his favour.
Leadsom on the other hand is showing serious signs of weakness and inexperience which should make her an easier opponent for May.
I would be very disappointed if Gove were to win. But at 24.0 he looks over priced and I've backed him.
Given 6 weeks and head to head debates he'd fancy his chances; May looks at Leadsom and surely thinks she can crush her mano a mano.0 -
If anyone else has seen a summary forecast of the Brexit impact, I'd appreciate a link. All I have at the moment is:DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes. In general, strong currencies hurt exporters by pushing up prices, yet here we see it as a national tragedy that the pound falls. Did Lamont sing in his bath in vain?John_M said:
https://www.globalcreditportal.com/ratingsdirect/renderArticle.do?articleId=1668576&SctArtId=393248&from=CM&nsl_code=LIME&sourceObjectId=9706178&sourceRevId=1&fee_ind=N&exp_date=20260704-14:55:10
From S&P.
Absent anything else, I suppose we'll have to wait on Mr Carney. Not expecting good news.0 -
Miss Plato, Sky's political reporting has recently been sub-optimal. I know it's diplomatic affairs, but it's a great shame Tim Marshal[sp] isn't there anymore. Top chap, really knew his beans.0
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Bercow is not a Tory, everyone else gets a vote but are conventionally circumspect about where it goesnot_on_fire said:
Do Tory MPs in supposedly neutral positions (e.g. Bercow) get a vote?ToryJim said:
There are only 329 possible votes AFAIAA. There are only 2 counters. Won't take an hour but need to agree totals with candidates etcMarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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Indeed; I did so on the morning of 24 June; as I'm Deputy Chairman Membership of my Association it would have been embarrassing to have missed out!PlatoSaid said:For ANY Tories whose membership lapsed in the last 3 months - you can still renew your subscription and vote under the current *grace period* rules.
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Was that at her brother-in-law's firm?Luckyguy1983 said:
Whereas poor inexperienced Andrea was just heading up bank departments aged 30.AlastairMeeks said:
That's very unfair on IDS. He'd spent four years as a shadow Cabinet minister before standing for Leader of the Opposition.logical_song said:
Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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But let's just be honest, so does everything to do with Brexit to you Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:I missed Gideon Rachman's article in the FT yesterday about how relations between Britain and the EU could progressively deteriorate:
It looks horribly plausible.0 -
Counting 330 of the exact same thing is quicker than reading and counting 330 different things. It would be more like having 330 £10 notes that were randomly sampled from Bank of England £10, Bank of Scotland £10, Royal Bank of Scotland £10, Clydesdale Bank £10 and Bank of Ireland £10 and then counting how many of each there were.DecrepitJohnL said:
One hour to count 330 votes still sounds a long time, even if there is only one counter and he stops halfway through for a cup of tea and a biscuit. Perhaps one of the wealthier pb-ers could head down to the bank and withdraw 330 crisp tenners, and let us know.AndyJS said:
Because IIRC only one person counts the votes: the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady.MarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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that doesnt count, you need to be in the home office and be seen failing to cope with mass riots and rising immigration in order to be experienced enough for the role of PM.Luckyguy1983 said:
Whereas poor inexperienced Andrea was just heading up bank departments aged 30.AlastairMeeks said:
That's very unfair on IDS. He'd spent four years as a shadow Cabinet minister before standing for Leader of the Opposition.logical_song said:
Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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So far this week I've been told that I'm a Lib Dem and now a Labour supporter. I'm hoping I'm going to complete the full set before the week is out, though I might struggle to get anyone to label me a kipper.JennyFreeman said:
For very obvious reasons, except to a Labour remainer, those two are inseparable. 17.5 million people voted to leave the EU. The next British Prime Minister needs to be staggeringly competent on the subject.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. .
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She should stay in the kitchen.Luckyguy1983 said:
Whereas poor inexperienced Andrea was just heading up bank departments aged 30.AlastairMeeks said:
That's very unfair on IDS. He'd spent four years as a shadow Cabinet minister before standing for Leader of the Opposition.logical_song said:
Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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Junker having another bad day.
.
Hungary to Hold Referendum on EU Migrant Quotas on Oct. 2
ABC News - 4 mins ago
The office of Hungarian President Janos Ader says he has set Oct. 2 as the date for a government-initiated referendum seeking political support ...0 -
competent doesn't necessarily equate with soundness, in the context it was used above!JennyFreeman said:
For very obvious reasons, except to a Labour remainer, those two are inseparable. 17.5 million people voted to leave the EU. The next British Prime Minister needs to be staggeringly competent on the subject.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. .
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This. This is PB. We're like the fucking Mount Everest of pedantsPhilip_Thompson said:
Counting 330 of the exact same thing is quicker than reading and counting 330 different things. It would be more like having 330 £10 notes that were randomly sampled from Bank of England £10, Bank of Scotland £10, Royal Bank of Scotland £10, Clydesdale Bank £10 and Bank of Ireland £10 and then counting how many of each there were.DecrepitJohnL said:
One hour to count 330 votes still sounds a long time, even if there is only one counter and he stops halfway through for a cup of tea and a biscuit. Perhaps one of the wealthier pb-ers could head down to the bank and withdraw 330 crisp tenners, and let us know.AndyJS said:
Because IIRC only one person counts the votes: the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady.MarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
. 0 -
Moving from a comprehensive rule based system to sets of not quite reciprocal deals will be a ten year grind. Time is not on our side. If we do nothing, our isolation develops by default as investors and traders start to ignore the UK in favour of the main action in Europe. On the other hand we are not in control of the process or the timetable. The EU side won't hate us but will simply be indifferent. That's the most frustrating thing of all.AlastairMeeks said:I missed Gideon Rachman's article in the FT yesterday about how relations between Britain and the EU could progressively deteriorate:
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/23f91dce-41c8-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html?siteedition=uk
It looks horribly plausible.0 -
It's those wicked Remainers TALKING DOWN BRITAIN.JennyFreeman said:
But let's just be honest, so does everything to do with Brexit to you Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:I missed Gideon Rachman's article in the FT yesterday about how relations between Britain and the EU could progressively deteriorate:
It looks horribly plausible.
Meanwhile, the country drifts, enervated.0 -
Some very sad news: Brian White, MP for Milton Keynes North 1997-2005, and MK councillor until this May, has died.0
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? This is not going to be a sealed bids auction. The EU nation states knowing the UK's position, and understanding the political importance of that position, would be a good thing.TudorRose said:
I think the Government line yesterday was sensible. One of the problems of having a transparent leadership election is that all the prospective PMs are disclosing their negotiating positions, which will undermine their ability to bargain after A50. Keeping all options open is the only way to approach things at present in my view.TCPoliticalBetting said:Why did the governing group stir up the issue of existing migrants? New Government policy making after the referendum, has got off to a deeply unimpressive start with this bargaining chip approach to present migrants. It was announced by Mrs May on Sunday and then repeated by Hammond etc yesterday. But by the end of the day back tracking started and a more emollient tone was being used in the face of opposition from LEAVErs and Labour REMAINers. A problem in that the established civil service and current Govt continue to make basic errors. Messrs May, Hammond, Osborne, Sir Humphries etc remain out of touch. Maybe a full clear out is required? What I do not yet see is any intensive focus in the media on this obvious blunder and asking where the buck stops for that.
And to those people who think it is unfair to use EU citizens as a 'bargaining chip' (and it does seem uncivilised at best) I would point out that we've already heard EU leaders say they won't negotiate on free movement of people - which is simply another way of using human beings as a bargaining chip.
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"Cameron gambled everything on the European referendum because he thought the centre was secure. He and George Osborne believed, as one of their cabinet allies told me: “It will be about jobs and the economy and it won’t even be close.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/how-remain-failed-inside-story-doomed-campaign0 -
FTSE : Sell on Carney appearing -, buy back after.
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You can get rainbow trout so perhaps you could be a rainbow kipper?AlastairMeeks said:
So far this week I've been told that I'm a Lib Dem and now a Labour supporter. I'm hoping I'm going to complete the full set before the week is out, though I might struggle to get anyone to label me a kipper.JennyFreeman said:
For very obvious reasons, except to a Labour remainer, those two are inseparable. 17.5 million people voted to leave the EU. The next British Prime Minister needs to be staggeringly competent on the subject.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. .
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The head of the liberal group in the [EU] parliament, former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, lambasted the European Council, the forum where EU governments decide policy.
He said the Council's reaction to Brexit was "we shouldn't change anything, just implement existing European policies". "I find this shocking and irresponsible," he said angrily.
There had been warning signs for the EU from previous referendums in Denmark and the Netherlands, he said.
"What are you waiting for? When will the Council recognise that this type of EU - you cannot defend it any more. Europe needs to be reformed... European citizens are not against Europe, they're against this Europe."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-367125500 -
We'll get you a kipper tie.AlastairMeeks said:
So far this week I've been told that I'm a Lib Dem and now a Labour supporter. I'm hoping I'm going to complete the full set before the week is out, though I might struggle to get anyone to label me a kipper.JennyFreeman said:
For very obvious reasons, except to a Labour remainer, those two are inseparable. 17.5 million people voted to leave the EU. The next British Prime Minister needs to be staggeringly competent on the subject.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. .
Reminds me of a joke I once heard long ago ..........0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36676558
Hovercraft boss: Brexit vote has 'brought new inquiries'
The recent fall in the value of the British pound has been taken by many as terrible economic news. But for British companies which are export-focused, it has been a gift because it's made their goods cheaper abroad.
The British Hovercraft Company, based in Kent, has reported a wave of new inquiries from abroad over the past week.
Its owner, Emma Pullen, is now planning a worldwide export drive, saying Brexit has opened up a "brave new world" for UK exporters.0 -
In order to negotiate 3.8 freedoms then we need someone who goes to the EU saying "three freedoms only" as their starting point and negotiate from there.MaxPB said:
Which is why we need someone who is pragmatic and doesn't have pre-determined red lines. If we get an ideologically pure type as PM who has said we will leave FoM come what may then there will be a very high price to pay for that, if we have someone who isn't bothered but is able to manoeuvre some restrictions on FoM in return for reciprocal restrictions we'll be in a better position.Philip_Thompson said:
Given that negotiating with the EU is by far now the single most important issue of the next two+ years it seems entirely reasonable to make it a consideration.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
Which I would not have said ever before, but the facts have changed. Until a new deal is negotated this has to be the number one priority and so the best candidate to be PM will surely be the best candidate to get the best deal "on the subject of the EU".
Your definition of what is best may vary, but the importance of the subject surely should not be underestimated.
FoM is seen in Brussels as one of the foundations of the union, without it, they say, the EU will crumble. If the UK were to be given three out of the four freedoms then the EU probably is finished. We need someone who can negotiate our way into getting 3.8/4 freedoms and then make changes to the benefits system so that the draw of our overly generous in working and housing benefits stops pulling people in.
If we send someone who says "four freedoms" then we will negotiate four freedoms with no wriggle room as they will have no reason to compromise.
Only someone demanding as a starting point an end to freedom of movement can negotiate a deal with a slightly restricted but still existing freedom of movement. A good negotiator never opens up with their bottom line.0 -
Sajid Javid was a Vice President at his bank in his 20s - youngest ever if I recall - I guess we should all be voting for him and Crabb then.CarlottaVance said:
Was that at her brother-in-law's firm?Luckyguy1983 said:
Whereas poor inexperienced Andrea was just heading up bank departments aged 30.AlastairMeeks said:
That's very unfair on IDS. He'd spent four years as a shadow Cabinet minister before standing for Leader of the Opposition.logical_song said:
Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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Kipper.AlastairMeeks said:
So far this week I've been told that I'm a Lib Dem and now a Labour supporter. I'm hoping I'm going to complete the full set before the week is out, though I might struggle to get anyone to label me a kipper.JennyFreeman said:
For very obvious reasons, except to a Labour remainer, those two are inseparable. 17.5 million people voted to leave the EU. The next British Prime Minister needs to be staggeringly competent on the subject.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. .
Yeah, so I couldn't resist. Sue me.0 -
Barclays I think.CarlottaVance said:
Was that at her brother-in-law's firm?Luckyguy1983 said:
Whereas poor inexperienced Andrea was just heading up bank departments aged 30.AlastairMeeks said:
That's very unfair on IDS. He'd spent four years as a shadow Cabinet minister before standing for Leader of the Opposition.logical_song said:
Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
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To me and people such as Andrea Leadsom it is just immoral. We also need to attract the best to our country, not the worst.TudorRose said:
I think the Government line yesterday was sensible. One of the problems of having a transparent leadership election is that all the prospective PMs are disclosing their negotiating positions, which will undermine their ability to bargain after A50. Keeping all options open is the only way to approach things at present in my view.TCPoliticalBetting said:Why did the governing group stir up the issue of existing migrants? New Government policy making after the referendum, has got off to a deeply unimpressive start with this bargaining chip approach to present migrants. It was announced by Mrs May on Sunday and then repeated by Hammond etc yesterday. But by the end of the day back tracking started and a more emollient tone was being used in the face of opposition from LEAVErs and Labour REMAINers. A problem in that the established civil service and current Govt continue to make basic errors. Messrs May, Hammond, Osborne, Sir Humphries etc remain out of touch. Maybe a full clear out is required? What I do not yet see is any intensive focus in the media on this obvious blunder and asking where the buck stops for that.
And to those people who think it is unfair to use EU citizens as a 'bargaining chip' (and it does seem uncivilised at best) I would point out that we've already heard EU leaders say they won't negotiate on free movement of people - which is simply another way of using human beings as a bargaining chip.
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But if candidates have promised a particular stance on, say, EU residents in the UK it does limit their ability to trade this later in the negotiations.anotherDave said:
? This is not going to be a sealed bids auction. The EU nation states knowing the UK's position, and understanding the political importance of that position, would be a good thing.TudorRose said:
I think the Government line yesterday was sensible. One of the problems of having a transparent leadership election is that all the prospective PMs are disclosing their negotiating positions, which will undermine their ability to bargain after A50. Keeping all options open is the only way to approach things at present in my view.TCPoliticalBetting said:Why did the governing group stir up the issue of existing migrants? New Government policy making after the referendum, has got off to a deeply unimpressive start with this bargaining chip approach to present migrants. It was announced by Mrs May on Sunday and then repeated by Hammond etc yesterday. But by the end of the day back tracking started and a more emollient tone was being used in the face of opposition from LEAVErs and Labour REMAINers. A problem in that the established civil service and current Govt continue to make basic errors. Messrs May, Hammond, Osborne, Sir Humphries etc remain out of touch. Maybe a full clear out is required? What I do not yet see is any intensive focus in the media on this obvious blunder and asking where the buck stops for that.
And to those people who think it is unfair to use EU citizens as a 'bargaining chip' (and it does seem uncivilised at best) I would point out that we've already heard EU leaders say they won't negotiate on free movement of people - which is simply another way of using human beings as a bargaining chip.0 -
Yesterday The Moggster said that the right to remain should have ended on June 23rd, ie two weeks ago. If not then, then as soon as possible.TCPoliticalBetting said:Why did the governing group stir up the issue of existing migrants? New Government policy making after the referendum, has got off to a deeply unimpressive start with this bargaining chip approach to present migrants. It was announced by Mrs May on Sunday and then repeated by Hammond etc yesterday. But by the end of the day back tracking started and a more emollient tone was being used in the face of opposition from LEAVErs and Labour REMAINers. A problem in that the established civil service and current Govt continue to make basic errors. Messrs May, Hammond, Osborne, Sir Humphries etc remain out of touch. Maybe a full clear out is required? What I do not yet see is any intensive focus in the media on this obvious blunder and asking where the buck stops for that.
This is the reality of our vote to Leave. Loon-o-Mogg is a Govester. I can't think Andrea is to the left of him on this one.
So it has begun, A50 or not. A candidate for PM, perhaps two, wants to end immediately the right of EU nationals to remain in the UK. As of this afternoon's BA319 CDG - LHR. Have the rEU27 been consulted? What would their view be, I wonder.
All well and good if that's their policy. But it is dreadful, immature, harmful politics and we are contemplating handing these people the reins of power.0 -
Partially agree. As we run a trade deficit, then those that profit from that will be engaged. I'd expect 6-7 countries to be really motivated to help us plus a few of the A8 who worry about Russia.FF43 said:
Moving from a comprehensive rule based system to sets of not quite reciprocal deals will be a ten year grind. Time is not on our side. If we do nothing, our isolation develops by default as investors and traders start to ignore the UK in favour of the main action in Europe. On the other hand we are not in control of the process or the timetable. The EU side won't hate us but will simply be indifferent. That's the most frustrating thing of all.AlastairMeeks said:I missed Gideon Rachman's article in the FT yesterday about how relations between Britain and the EU could progressively deteriorate:
http://app.ft.com/cms/s/23f91dce-41c8-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d.html?siteedition=uk
It looks horribly plausible.
The minnows won't care one way or another. For example, there are about 1,000 Slovenians here and ~500 Brits in Slovenia. We do little trade with them and almost none in services. They still get to vote on things. It's the middling countries that are hard to call - Austria, Czechs etc.0 -
Oh come on! My 10-year-old could do all that in considerably less than an hour - and still have time for a couple of rounds of Top Trumps.Philip_Thompson said:
Counting 330 of the exact same thing is quicker than reading and counting 330 different things. It would be more like having 330 £10 notes that were randomly sampled from Bank of England £10, Bank of Scotland £10, Royal Bank of Scotland £10, Clydesdale Bank £10 and Bank of Ireland £10 and then counting how many of each there were.DecrepitJohnL said:
One hour to count 330 votes still sounds a long time, even if there is only one counter and he stops halfway through for a cup of tea and a biscuit. Perhaps one of the wealthier pb-ers could head down to the bank and withdraw 330 crisp tenners, and let us know.AndyJS said:
Because IIRC only one person counts the votes: the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady.MarqueeMark said:
Voting finishes at 6pm. Why it takes an hour to count 330 votes is something of a mystery. They should have word with Sunderland....rottenborough said:
Somebody said 7pm on here earlier.Philip_Thompson said:Any idea what time we get the Round 1 results?
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No it's just that your needle is stuck, your needle is stuck, your needle is stAlastairMeeks said:
It's those wicked Remainers TALKING DOWN BRITAIN.JennyFreeman said:
But let's just be honest, so does everything to do with Brexit to you Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:I missed Gideon Rachman's article in the FT yesterday about how relations between Britain and the EU could progressively deteriorate:
It looks horribly plausible.0 -
An excellent response from Verhofstadt, leader of the ALDE group. It's a pity Farron isn't following this line which would be much easier to defend rather than simply hoping (somehow) we would be allowed back into the EU on the same terms we rejected last month.MarqueeMark said:The head of the liberal group in the [EU] parliament, former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, lambasted the European Council, the forum where EU governments decide policy.
He said the Council's reaction to Brexit was "we shouldn't change anything, just implement existing European policies". "I find this shocking and irresponsible," he said angrily.
There had been warning signs for the EU from previous referendums in Denmark and the Netherlands, he said.
"What are you waiting for? When will the Council recognise that this type of EU - you cannot defend it any more. Europe needs to be reformed... European citizens are not against Europe, they're against this Europe."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36712550
Unfortunately, neither the conservatives nor the socialists in Europe want any kind of change or reform as the current system suits them both so well.
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it also helps if the first announcement you make on immigration has to be hastily amended under the onslaught from LEAVErs and a depressed Labour party.Brom said:
that doesnt count, you need to be in the home office and be seen failing to cope with mass riots and rising immigration in order to be experienced enough for the role of PM.Luckyguy1983 said:
Whereas poor inexperienced Andrea was just heading up bank departments aged 30.AlastairMeeks said:
That's very unfair on IDS. He'd spent four years as a shadow Cabinet minister before standing for Leader of the Opposition.logical_song said:
Leadsom = IDS but this time as Prime Minister.AlastairMeeks said:It's all going to come down to whether Conservative members are looking to select the person who is most fit in the round to be Prime Minister or the person who is most sound on the subject of the EU. That the second is even potentially relevant shows just how crazed the electorate is.
0
