politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON leadership line-up is worryingly thin
Comments
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Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.tyson said:
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.ReggieCide said:
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not prettyJobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.0 -
yes, the conservatives do look rather thin, but sadly they're fat bastards compared to the other parties,
Who is there in Labour - zilch
LDs ? - nada
UKIP ? hmmmm
This is more of a sad indictment on our whole politcal class than just the Tories.0 -
I actually always looked forward to the County Council Meetings- the councillors were invariably polite, and complimentary. I'd get a much easier time than from my own board for instance.DearPB said:
County Councillor's are generally (in my Tory experience) fairly sensible, moderate and importantly, without further ambition. Day time meetings mean they're all retired.tyson said:
I was a Regional Director in the Health Service.....so had quite alot to do with Oxfordshire County Council. I always found the Tory County Council really quite easy to deal with, as too Kent when I worked in the Local Authority. Tory Shire Councillors are a rather pleasant lot.DearPB said:
Are you a) the Chief Exec of Oxfordshire County Council b) the Leader of the Conservative Group c) a member of the electorate - just so I can put appropriate weight to your lack of recollection!tyson said:
Gosh- that is where I know Angela Leadsom from. Oxfordshire County Council- she was a councillor. It was bugging me where I knew her from.CarlottaVance said:
That said, she hardly made any kind of impression on me.
Oxford City was a different kettle of fish. Larry Sanders (Bernie's brother) was very prominent, and there were some very outspoken, lefty firebrands that were really quite difficult.
I'm glad I'm out though. I worked through a golden era when I could develop services. I don't blame the Tories for austerity though, but I'm glad I didn't have to be responsible for the cuts and reorganisations that followed my departure.
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Are you watching what I'm watching?NickPalmer said:Regardless of other consideration, Corbyn handling the Committee hearings extraordinarily well IMO. I've been on four SCs and they operate on a basis of politely but searchingly catching people out, and he's giving a good example of patient and intelligent responses under fire.
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Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.Jobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
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@MSmithsonPB: A Gove CON leadership victory would make last September's LAB choice of Corbyn seem totally rational0
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Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end wellSean_F said:
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.tyson said:
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.ReggieCide said:
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not prettyJobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.
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.@MattSingh_ : the 2.8 million unlikely voters who made #Brexit happen https://t.co/R7XG4ZiOe0 via @BV https://t.co/akd3zbll5HSean_F said:
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.Jobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
"The missing piece to the puzzle is referendum turnout. At 72 percent, turnout was very high by modern standards. Low turnout was expected to make Brexit more likely, given that Brexit supporters were more enthusiastic and would form a larger proportion of a low turnout. But the high turnout raises a different question: Who were the 2.8 million new voters?
The BES's 2015 study had suggested that non-voters as a whole had similar views on the EU to voters generally; they encompassed both idealistic (yet politically disinterested) youngsters and disaffected blue-collar workers. We now know that what former BBC political editor Nick Robinson observed when he spoke to people in the northeastern city of Sunderland was no fluke: Many who hadn’t voted since the 1980s turned out heavily to vote "leave." Anecdotes can mislead, but this one is supported by analysis....
The slope of the fit line implies that a one-vote increase in turnout almost equals a one-vote increase in the "leave" vote. In other words, the net impact of the 2.8 million extra votes was entirely to the benefit of the Brexiters."0 -
I voted Remain but I agree with this analysis.Sean_F said:
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.Jobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.0 -
Conservative backbench who seeks a government position has to choose between stating he is supporting the favourite candidate for PM or the outsider he believes is the more suitable candidate. It's a secret ballot.
Which door does he open?
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Well Corbyn fits the put forward poorly category. And for years of trashing the EU and playing the Eurosceptic card to his party, Cameron was just an implausible front man. People didn't believe him, so another one for the put forward poorly box.Sean_F said:
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.Jobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
The campaign needed to be fronted by David Miliband, and Ken Clarke.
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Surely the opposite. The EU, with CAP subsidising farmers and compulsory tariffs for those without - not least third world agricultural produces IS a modern day version of the corn laws.felix said:
Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end wellSean_F said:
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.tyson said:
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.ReggieCide said:
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not prettyJobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.0 -
The pollsters were told. They guessed that people were lying and changed what they published accordingly.PlatoSaid said:
.@MattSingh_ : the 2.8 million unlikely voters who made #Brexit happen https://t.co/R7XG4ZiOe0 via @BV https://t.co/akd3zbll5HSean_F said:
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.Jobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
"The missing piece to the puzzle is referendum turnout. At 72 percent, turnout was very high by modern standards. Low turnout was expected to make Brexit more likely, given that Brexit supporters were more enthusiastic and would form a larger proportion of a low turnout. But the high turnout raises a different question: Who were the 2.8 million new voters?
The BES's 2015 study had suggested that non-voters as a whole had similar views on the EU to voters generally; they encompassed both idealistic (yet politically disinterested) youngsters and disaffected blue-collar workers. We now know that what former BBC political editor Nick Robinson observed when he spoke to people in the northeastern city of Sunderland was no fluke: Many who hadn’t voted since the 1980s turned out heavily to vote "leave." Anecdotes can mislead, but this one is supported by analysis...."
Virtually every pollster had a definite to vote response that said Leave would win after purdah had been reached.
Populus were especially shocking though.0 -
DearPB said:
A point I made earlier - and I bloody voted for him. I was young what can I say...rural_voter said:
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Assuming it is Leadsom v May
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Clarke
People tend to become more right wing as they age.
To what do we attribute this?0 -
Mr. Evershed, idealism being replaced with experience?0
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Growing wisdom with age.David_Evershed said:DearPB said:
A point I made earlier - and I bloody voted for him. I was young what can I say...rural_voter said:
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Assuming it is Leadsom v May
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Clarke
People tend to become more right wing as they age.
To what do we attribute this?0 -
The slope of the fit line implies that a one-vote increase in turnout almost equals a one-vote increase in the "leave" vote. In other words, the net impact of the 2.8 million extra votes was entirely to the benefit of the Brexiters."chestnut said:
The pollsters were told. They guessed that people were lying and changed what they published accordingly.PlatoSaid said:
.@MattSingh_ : the 2.8 million unlikely voters who made #Brexit happen https://t.co/R7XG4ZiOe0 via @BV https://t.co/akd3zbll5HSean_F said:
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.Jobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
"The missing piece to the puzzle is referendum turnout. At 72 percent, turnout was very high by modern standards. Low turnout was expected to make Brexit more likely, given that Brexit supporters were more enthusiastic and would form a larger proportion of a low turnout. But the high turnout raises a different question: Who were the 2.8 million new voters?
The BES's 2015 study had suggested that non-voters as a whole had similar views on the EU to voters generally; they encompassed both idealistic (yet politically disinterested) youngsters and disaffected blue-collar workers. We now know that what former BBC political editor Nick Robinson observed when he spoke to people in the northeastern city of Sunderland was no fluke: Many who hadn’t voted since the 1980s turned out heavily to vote "leave." Anecdotes can mislead, but this one is supported by analysis...."
Virtually every pollster had a definite to vote response that said Leave once purdah passed.
Populus were especially shocking though.0 -
Big big news on Con Home - Leadsom beats May in their Leader Survey0
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I would hate to have lost a campaign to them then.Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.0 -
paulyork64 said:
I would hate to have lost a campaign to them then.Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
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I thought most of con home were UKIP members?DearPB said:Big big news on Con Home - Leadsom beats May in their Leader Survey
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BF now has a 1st/2nd market for Tories:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1254394150 -
Common sense and experience.David_Evershed said:DearPB said:
A point I made earlier - and I bloody voted for him. I was young what can I say...rural_voter said:
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Assuming it is Leadsom v May
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Clarke
People tend to become more right wing as they age.
To what do we attribute this?0 -
Cheering for andy but i really rate kyrgios.0
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Loss of brain cells maybe?David_Evershed said:DearPB said:
A point I made earlier - and I bloody voted for him. I was young what can I say...rural_voter said:
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Assuming it is Leadsom v May
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Clarke
People tend to become more right wing as they age.
To what do we attribute this?
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I doubt it;Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I thought most of con home were UKIP members?DearPB said:Big big news on Con Home - Leadsom beats May in their Leader Survey
But even still it has a big effect on momentum and the other also rans, it also rules out a May coronation.0 -
May needs to keep Leadsom out of last two. Time to play dirty.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I thought most of con home were UKIP members?DearPB said:Big big news on Con Home - Leadsom beats May in their Leader Survey
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I think it's Joseph Stiglitz who has theorised that globalisation puts the integrity of nation states under stress. His view is that societies can choose any two out of democracy, national sovereignty, and economic integration but not all three. What the Brexit vote showed is people opting for the first two of those.felix said:
Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end wellSean_F said:
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.tyson said:
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.ReggieCide said:
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not prettyJobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.0 -
Maybe because they accrue wealth and arent so keen to share it?David_Evershed said:DearPB said:
A point I made earlier - and I bloody voted for him. I was young what can I say...rural_voter said:
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Assuming it is Leadsom v May
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Clarke
People tend to become more right wing as they age.
To what do we attribute this?0 -
Tory PBers, is ConHome representative of Tory members?
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But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?0
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I get your point but the EU being a zero tariff zone was the parallel I was drawing along with the nature of the Conservatives then and now. Cameron has many faults but 'ultra' and 'backwoodsman' are not among them.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Surely the opposite. The EU, with CAP subsidising farmers and compulsory tariffs for those without - not least third world agricultural produces IS a modern day version of the corn laws.felix said:
Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end wellSean_F said:
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.tyson said:
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.ReggieCide said:
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not prettyJobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.0 -
Just glancing at the scores. Nishikori's being destroyed by Cilic (currently 6-1, 5-1).0
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DearPB said:
Big big news on Con Home - Leadsom beats May in their Leader Survey
Indeed.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I thought most of con home were UKIP members?DearPB said:Big big news on Con Home - Leadsom beats May in their Leader Survey
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I know it's viewed as being to the right, but I'd say it's broadly representative. I'd be considered on the left of the Party these days (moving left as I get older) but I drop in occasionally and always take the surveys. Pre-referendum Gove was way out ahead in their last Leadership survey.The_Apocalypse said:Tory PBers, is ConHome representative of Tory members?
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This genuinely scares me. A complete unknown, untested, non-Cabinet, non-front rank politician who has been an MP for a handful of years might be made PM by the end of August.TheScreamingEagles said:
How do we know she wont be completely overwhelmed by being PM? We have no clue. None.
Truly politics has gone bonkers.0 -
Absolutely notThe_Apocalypse said:Tory PBers, is ConHome representative of Tory members?
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And surprise, surprise, Leadsom was not a member of the County Council, she was a Councillor in South Oxfordshire District Council!DearPB said:
Are you a) the Chief Exec of Oxfordshire County Council b) the Leader of the Conservative Group c) a member of the electorate - just so I can put appropriate weight to your lack of recollection!tyson said:
Gosh- that is where I know Angela Leadsom from. Oxfordshire County Council- she was a councillor. It was bugging me where I knew her from.CarlottaVance said:
That said, she hardly made any kind of impression on me.0 -
Indeed - the shock there is just how close May is.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I thought most of con home were UKIP members?DearPB said:Big big news on Con Home - Leadsom beats May in their Leader Survey
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Time for me to publish my hatchet job on Andrea Leadsom0
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She won't be.rottenborough said:
This genuinely scares me. A complete unknown, untested, non-Cabinet, non-front rank politician who has been an MP for a handful of years might be made PM by the end of August.TheScreamingEagles said:
How do we know she wont be completely overwhelmed by being PM? We have no clue. None.
Truly politics has gone bonkers.0 -
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?Morris_Dancer said:But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
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Voodoo - anyone can do it.Morris_Dancer said:But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
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Gove's actions are beginning to start to make sense now.rottenborough said:
May needs to keep Leadsom out of last two. Time to play dirty.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
I thought most of con home were UKIP members?DearPB said:Big big news on Con Home - Leadsom beats May in their Leader Survey
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Con Home .. Its a voodoo poll at best at worst is completely bonkers(like its adherents). It has about as much value as asking my dogs. They are just as likely to bark at the right time0
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pls do.TheScreamingEagles said:Time for me to publish my hatchet job on Andrea Leadsom
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Contains the phrase 'the loathsome Leadsome' and 'do you fancy being a Leadsomite?'rottenborough said:
pls do.TheScreamingEagles said:Time for me to publish my hatchet job on Andrea Leadsom
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Probably bad news for Leadsom as MPs will now seek to keep her off the members ballot. Most of them aren't stupid enough to risk the reputational damage to the Party and the economic damage to the country that would result from a Leadsom win.DearPB said:
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?Morris_Dancer said:But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
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Doesn't make it meaningless - it's part of the narrative; it will be reported and be reported without provisos.SquareRoot said:Con Home .. Its a voodoo poll at best at worst is completely bonkers(like its adherents). It has about as much value as asking my dogs. They are just as likely to bark at the right time
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Could do with some more liquidity. Betting on May winning has almost exactly the same odds as May winning AND Leadsom coming second.rottenborough said:BF now has a 1st/2nd market for Tories:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1254394150 -
Unfortunately that's a fair observation..DearPB said:
Doesn't make it meaningless - it's part of the narrative; it will be reported and be reported without provisos.SquareRoot said:Con Home .. Its a voodoo poll at best at worst is completely bonkers(like its adherents). It has about as much value as asking my dogs. They are just as likely to bark at the right time
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Maybe they could all live in a camp near calais. Shady pines jungle.JonathanD said:
All the more reason to make sure they stay abroad and aren't returned by a victorious EU. May's negotiating position is the logical result of the Leave vote - as much as we regret it.tyson said:DearPB said:
LOLtyson said:
The vast majority of EU citizens in Britain are vibrant, professional, young and contributing massively to the economy. Our lot abroad, are mostly a bunch of inactive, elderly expats with a range of chronic health complaints.Morris_Dancer said:I am perplexed by the view EU citizens here should have rights guaranteed unilaterally, without a corresponding guarantee in place for UK citizens in the EU.
I don't think May has quite thought through her bargaining position through since we would hope that the EU citizens stay, and none of the lumpen, idle, and mostly old expats return.
May's position is an absolutely nonsense. I don't think know of any EU citizen who has come to England to retire. Clacton on Sea doesn't quite cut it. They all come to the UK to work mostly.
Our lot abroad are predominantly oldies, tight fisted- as old people invariably are- and sponging off the local health system.
Also I think we do pay towards UK citizens medical treatment abroad although I'm not sure of exact figures.0 -
Are you sure? Anything seems to happen these days.ToryJim said:
Probably bad news for Leadsom as MPs will now seek to keep her off the members ballot. Most of them aren't stupid enough to risk the reputational damage to the Party and the economic damage to the country that would result from a Leadsom win.DearPB said:
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?Morris_Dancer said:But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
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Already seeing retweets by credible people.SquareRoot said:
Unfortunately that's a fair observation..DearPB said:
Doesn't make it meaningless - it's part of the narrative; it will be reported and be reported without provisos.SquareRoot said:Con Home .. Its a voodoo poll at best at worst is completely bonkers(like its adherents). It has about as much value as asking my dogs. They are just as likely to bark at the right time
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Cheers for the answers.
Now, a more important question: I'm toying with not buying any more Game of Thrones DVDs (got the first four seasons as the sets came out) until the series is done, then getting a big box set of all of it.
Sensible idea, or dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez?0 -
If we, of our own free will, pool our sovereignty for the greater good and consequently our own benefit too, we resolve the three things. But pooled sovereignty needs to be sold and it is a harder sell to make than barking "control" at every turn.Sean_F said:
I think it's Joseph Stiglitz who has theorised that globalisation puts the integrity of nation states under stress. His view is that societies can choose any two out of democracy, national sovereignty, and economic integration but not all three. What the Brexit vote showed is people opting for the first two of those.felix said:
Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end wellSean_F said:
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.tyson said:
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.ReggieCide said:
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not prettyJobabob said:
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.John_M said:
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?Jobabob said:RealBritain said:Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.0 -
Yep, May supporters must now vote tactically for Gove.
No question about it.
This is what members of political parties are like. For the last year we've seen people laughing at Labour members for choosing Corbyn. This shows the Conservatives are just the same - with members completely out of line with the mainstream of public opinion.
Con MPs now have a very serious job on their hands. Lab MPs didn't get their job done and are now paying a massive price. Will Con MPs now do the same?0 -
I agree with Alastair's post and the implicit conclusion that there's only one reasonable choice.
Theresa May should propose a motion to the Commons within a few days that the government should make a proper plan for Brexit and lay it before the Commons within three months, and that if the Commons approves the plan then the government will also lay it before the people in a referendum. Phrase the first motion as "This house has confidence in the government and its proposal". See how the Leavite Tory MPs fancy defending their seats next month against LibDems and how their Remainer colleagues rate their chances against UKIP.
It's about time that a government showed a bit of leadership. Leadership, thigh-high boots and cleavage - what more can we ask?
Given Theresa's penchant for showing cleavage, when the next referendum comes she may even be able to persuade the Sun to cause the right side to win, rather than the wrong side as it did last week. And next time, can we only have British citizens on the franchise please? I'll compromise and allow the Irish to have a vote, in the interests of friendship and because the British and they used to be in the same country and legally speaking "Ireland is not a foreign country". But Australians, Canadians, Indians - no. This is an issue of British foreign policy. It's not electing the local council.
Oh and could someone ask why the monarch hasn't complained about the Sun's front page article on the eve of the referendum?
That Liam Fox is on the ticket is remarkable. One name: Adam Werritty. I hope May doesn't offer him a job. What's he even doing in parliament?0 -
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/7499909901534535680 -
It consolidates Leadsom as the UKIP candidate and the Leadsomites as kippers-manqueDearPB said:
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?Morris_Dancer said:But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
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I wake up to see he's resigned!...... Evans that is 0
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I doubt it is, anymore than this place is representative of the electorate as whole. The collective wisdom of PB tends to be wrong on all the big decisions.The_Apocalypse said:Tory PBers, is ConHome representative of Tory members?
There are some posters who do tend to get it right but you must do your own research.0 -
Another set of experts making stuff up about the property business. Really, haven't they got the message yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/7499909901534535680 -
There is a theory that people stay where they are but the zeitgeist moves left. In the 1960s radical causes might have included equal pay for women, homosexual or abortion rights. Those battles have been won. You can repeat the thought exercise for later decades. It is not as if anyone yearns to send small boys up chimneys on collecting their free bus pass.David_Evershed said:DearPB said:
A point I made earlier - and I bloody voted for him. I was young what can I say...rural_voter said:
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.Paul_Bedfordshire said:Assuming it is Leadsom v May
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Clarke
People tend to become more right wing as they age.
To what do we attribute this?0 -
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/7499909901534535680 -
Mr. Eagles, consider the alternative.
We vote to stay in on what people perceive as the status quo, then Martin Schulz reveals he wants the Commission to become a Government of the EU.
Economic uncertainty is a bad thing, but also a transient thing.0 -
That's where it finished quite a while ago; he retired injured.Morris_Dancer said:Just glancing at the scores. Nishikori's being destroyed by Cilic (currently 6-1, 5-1).
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Pretty sure.rottenborough said:
Are you sure? Anything seems to happen these days.ToryJim said:
Probably bad news for Leadsom as MPs will now seek to keep her off the members ballot. Most of them aren't stupid enough to risk the reputational damage to the Party and the economic damage to the country that would result from a Leadsom win.DearPB said:
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?Morris_Dancer said:But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
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At least the Tories retained a system where MPs have serious say in matters and also don't allow anyone with £3 to vote. Ed Miliband should have resigned from Labour in disgrace over that idea.MikeL said:Yep, May supporters must now vote tactically for Gove.
No question about it.
This is what members of political parties are like. For the last year we've seen people laughing at Labour members for choosing Corbyn. This shows the Conservatives are just the same - with members completely out of line with the mainstream of public opinion.
Con MPs now have a very serious job on their hands. Lab MPs didn't get their job done and are now paying a massive price. Will Con MPs now do the same?0 -
Hmm. Even a Remainic like me thinks that's a bit odd. It's only been a week.DearPB said:
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/7499909901534535680 -
That's why it simply has to be May vs Gove before the members. An insurance policy. I wouldn't want Gove to win, but I could live with that (as could the country) more than Leadsom winning.rottenborough said:
This genuinely scares me. A complete unknown, untested, non-Cabinet, non-front rank politician who has been an MP for a handful of years might be made PM by the end of August.TheScreamingEagles said:
How do we know she wont be completely overwhelmed by being PM? We have no clue. None.
Truly politics has gone bonkers.
Please Tory MPs, make sure it's May vs Gove.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/749990990153453568
Leavers would argue that it is because of all the over-egged warnings, and then complete failure to prepare for a Leave decision, that is causing the problems.
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Mr. Anorak, ah, that would explain it.
Mr. Sykes, no taste for Crabb?0 -
That's what I thought - must be more to it.rottenborough said:
Hmm. Even a Remainic like me thinks that's a bit odd. It's only been a week.DearPB said:
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/7499909901534535680 -
Looks like affordable property is going to make a comeback.0
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Sorry I meant post-Brexit. These are stressful times...SeanT said:
Their business has collapsed because they were pro-Brexit???DearPB said:
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/749990990153453568
Those REMAINIACS are vicious.
Also, I do not believe a restaurant can collapse just 9 days after a vote, because of that vote.0 -
Aviva property fund (mainly used by pension funds) also suspendedTheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/7499909901534535680 -
Mr. Hopkins, that argument was made before the vote, indeed.0
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The Number Cruncher Politics central projection of 52.7 percent "remain" and 47.3 percent "leave" would have equated to remain gaining 16.2 million votes and "leave" 14.5 million among existing 2015 voters. Using the same samples, but with a likely voter screen that reflects the actual turnout pattern, gives "remain" 16.1 million, "leave" 17.4 million – the exact result."
Bloody hell.0 -
Who needs money or food when you've taken back control.SeanT said:
Could just be jitters.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/749990990153453568
*buys tinned food*
Feel the sovereignty.0 -
Great to hear Andrea guaranteeing the rights of those EU workers already here the right to stay. May and Hammond are pathetic. Even if the EU commences the ethnic cleansing of Brits from Europe, we should not take out on innocent EU citizens who have made Britain their home.0
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It's exactly what I'm doingMorris_Dancer said:Cheers for the answers.
Now, a more important question: I'm toying with not buying any more Game of Thrones DVDs (got the first four seasons as the sets came out) until the series is done, then getting a big box set of all of it.
Sensible idea, or dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez? 0 -
If we hadn't said X and predicted Y and then maybe had said Z.......nunu said:The Number Cruncher Politics central projection of 52.7 percent "remain" and 47.3 percent "leave" would have equated to remain gaining 16.2 million votes and "leave" 14.5 million among existing 2015 voters. Using the same samples, but with a likely voter screen that reflects the actual turnout pattern, gives "remain" 16.1 million, "leave" 17.4 million – the exact result."
Bloody hell.
They screwed up enormously.0 -
Well, he would certainly help Theresa win, but having two Remainers fight it out for the job would utterly destroy the Tory Party once and for all. It has to be May vs a Brexiter, and May has to win.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Anorak, ah, that would explain it.
Mr. Sykes, no taste for Crabb?0 -
It was desk banging for Fox and Gove. But May gets *door* banging as she speaks at 1922 Cttee
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) July 4, 2016
It's a whole new level of Tory support folks.0 -
UKIPhome indeed.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
What % RDA of calories is a helping of sovereignty. And does it go well with chips?TheScreamingEagles said:
Who needs money or food when you've taken back control.SeanT said:
Could just be jitters.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/749990990153453568
*buys tinned food*
Feel the sovereignty.0 -
I think I've lost count of the things that would utterly destroy the Tory party...Bob__Sykes said:
Well, he would certainly help Theresa win, but having two Remainers fight it out for the job would utterly destroy the Tory Party once and for all. It has to be May vs a Brexiter, and May has to win.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Anorak, ah, that would explain it.
Mr. Sykes, no taste for Crabb?
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DearPB said:
It was desk banging for Fox and Gove. But May gets *door* banging as she speaks at 1922 Cttee
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) July 4, 2016
It's a whole new level of Tory support folks.
People desperate to get out??
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The one prediction I got right is that Leavers would blame those that warned about stuff going wrong rather than those that dismissed the warnings as fearmongering and carried on regardless.MarkHopkins said:TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/749990990153453568
Leavers would argue that it is because of all the over-egged warnings, and then complete failure to prepare for a Leave decision, that is causing the problems.
The key point about Cassandra was that she was right about the Trojan Horse.0 -
Commercial property sector was dead in run up to Brexit vote = expectation was once it was out the way, it would kick back in - but not so due to the shock result.rottenborough said:
Another set of experts making stuff up about the property business. Really, haven't they got the message yet?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/749990990153453568
Being such an illiquid investment asset, swings between buyers and sellers are a problem as we saw last time the sector crashed after a prolonged boom. It could 'snap back' but I rather doubt it and I'm very defensively positioned for clients now in the sector and been cashing out those with larger % exposures. The often 5% bid/offer hit to pricing is one thing but being locked in for months isn't fun.0 -
It's a survey of ConHome readers, not Tory members.rottenborough said:
This genuinely scares me. A complete unknown, untested, non-Cabinet, non-front rank politician who has been an MP for a handful of years might be made PM by the end of August.TheScreamingEagles said:
How do we know she wont be completely overwhelmed by being PM? We have no clue. None.
Truly politics has gone bonkers.0 -
You have a political class with the gumption and the leadership skills to convince the voters of the benefits of immigration.SeanT said:
There is no way to square this circle. People really really don't want uncontrolled immigration. They really DO want to take back control of the borders. How do you do that without crashing the economy?TheScreamingEagles said:
Who needs money or food when you've taken back control.SeanT said:
Could just be jitters.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/749990990153453568
*buys tinned food*
Feel the sovereignty.
Answers on an e-postcard to Number 100 -
I see UKIP home has May neck and neck with Leadsom in their 'poll', so that's good news for TM!!0
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I find that difficult to believe. Unless most of the diners are Eurocrats.DearPB said:
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/7499909901534535680 -
Watch London where nearly 40% of residents are born abroad.SeanT said:There's no denying these are ominous signs. Property underpins the UK economy.
Brrr.
We may yet see a reversal of the vote. Or May (if she wins) has to come out and say it's EEA at the minimum, with the Single Market, so very little will change economically - to calm things.
Many BTL landlords are dependent on a never ending flow of migrant workers to give them their yield.
A combination of the Benefits Cap, the BTL tax regime and now this are squeezing them.
The average home in London is now trading at nearly £500k -four times the level of most of the country.
The rest of the country won't feel this anywhere near as much, but London...
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CONTEXT, guys. The sector was already deep in shit back in February because of excess outflows, when the referendum was invisibly far in the future and everyone knew remain were going to walk it anyway. Post Brexit non est propter Brexit.TheScreamingEagles said:
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?SeanT said:Not good. Really not good
https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/749990990153453568
Edit linky for you: https://next.ft.com/content/1b359b94-1b77-11e6-b286-cddde55ca1220
