Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not pretty
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.
Gosh- that is where I know Angela Leadsom from. Oxfordshire County Council- she was a councillor. It was bugging me where I knew her from. That said, she hardly made any kind of impression on me.
Are you a) the Chief Exec of Oxfordshire County Council b) the Leader of the Conservative Group c) a member of the electorate - just so I can put appropriate weight to your lack of recollection!
I was a Regional Director in the Health Service.....so had quite alot to do with Oxfordshire County Council. I always found the Tory County Council really quite easy to deal with, as too Kent when I worked in the Local Authority. Tory Shire Councillors are a rather pleasant lot. Oxford City was a different kettle of fish. Larry Sanders (Bernie's brother) was very prominent, and there were some very outspoken, lefty firebrands that were really quite difficult.
County Councillor's are generally (in my Tory experience) fairly sensible, moderate and importantly, without further ambition. Day time meetings mean they're all retired.
I actually always looked forward to the County Council Meetings- the councillors were invariably polite, and complimentary. I'd get a much easier time than from my own board for instance.
I'm glad I'm out though. I worked through a golden era when I could develop services. I don't blame the Tories for austerity though, but I'm glad I didn't have to be responsible for the cuts and reorganisations that followed my departure.
Regardless of other consideration, Corbyn handling the Committee hearings extraordinarily well IMO. I've been on four SCs and they operate on a basis of politely but searchingly catching people out, and he's giving a good example of patient and intelligent responses under fire.
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not pretty
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.
Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end well
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.
"The missing piece to the puzzle is referendum turnout. At 72 percent, turnout was very high by modern standards. Low turnout was expected to make Brexit more likely, given that Brexit supporters were more enthusiastic and would form a larger proportion of a low turnout. But the high turnout raises a different question: Who were the 2.8 million new voters?
The BES's 2015 study had suggested that non-voters as a whole had similar views on the EU to voters generally; they encompassed both idealistic (yet politically disinterested) youngsters and disaffected blue-collar workers. We now know that what former BBC political editor Nick Robinson observed when he spoke to people in the northeastern city of Sunderland was no fluke: Many who hadn’t voted since the 1980s turned out heavily to vote "leave." Anecdotes can mislead, but this one is supported by analysis....
The slope of the fit line implies that a one-vote increase in turnout almost equals a one-vote increase in the "leave" vote. In other words, the net impact of the 2.8 million extra votes was entirely to the benefit of the Brexiters."
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.
Conservative backbench who seeks a government position has to choose between stating he is supporting the favourite candidate for PM or the outsider he believes is the more suitable candidate. It's a secret ballot.
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.
Well Corbyn fits the put forward poorly category. And for years of trashing the EU and playing the Eurosceptic card to his party, Cameron was just an implausible front man. People didn't believe him, so another one for the put forward poorly box.
The campaign needed to be fronted by David Miliband, and Ken Clarke.
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not pretty
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.
Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end well
Surely the opposite. The EU, with CAP subsidising farmers and compulsory tariffs for those without - not least third world agricultural produces IS a modern day version of the corn laws.
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.
"The missing piece to the puzzle is referendum turnout. At 72 percent, turnout was very high by modern standards. Low turnout was expected to make Brexit more likely, given that Brexit supporters were more enthusiastic and would form a larger proportion of a low turnout. But the high turnout raises a different question: Who were the 2.8 million new voters?
The BES's 2015 study had suggested that non-voters as a whole had similar views on the EU to voters generally; they encompassed both idealistic (yet politically disinterested) youngsters and disaffected blue-collar workers. We now know that what former BBC political editor Nick Robinson observed when he spoke to people in the northeastern city of Sunderland was no fluke: Many who hadn’t voted since the 1980s turned out heavily to vote "leave." Anecdotes can mislead, but this one is supported by analysis...."
The pollsters were told. They guessed that people were lying and changed what they published accordingly.
Virtually every pollster had a definite to vote response that said Leave would win after purdah had been reached.
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
Alternatively, the arguments put forward by Remain were poor, or put forward poorly, or they were trying to sell a poor product to the voters.
"The missing piece to the puzzle is referendum turnout. At 72 percent, turnout was very high by modern standards. Low turnout was expected to make Brexit more likely, given that Brexit supporters were more enthusiastic and would form a larger proportion of a low turnout. But the high turnout raises a different question: Who were the 2.8 million new voters?
The BES's 2015 study had suggested that non-voters as a whole had similar views on the EU to voters generally; they encompassed both idealistic (yet politically disinterested) youngsters and disaffected blue-collar workers. We now know that what former BBC political editor Nick Robinson observed when he spoke to people in the northeastern city of Sunderland was no fluke: Many who hadn’t voted since the 1980s turned out heavily to vote "leave." Anecdotes can mislead, but this one is supported by analysis...."
The pollsters were told. They guessed that people were lying and changed what they published accordingly.
Virtually every pollster had a definite to vote response that said Leave once purdah passed.
Populus were especially shocking though.
The slope of the fit line implies that a one-vote increase in turnout almost equals a one-vote increase in the "leave" vote. In other words, the net impact of the 2.8 million extra votes was entirely to the benefit of the Brexiters."
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
I would hate to have lost a campaign to them then.
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
I would hate to have lost a campaign to them then.
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not pretty
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.
Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end well
I think it's Joseph Stiglitz who has theorised that globalisation puts the integrity of nation states under stress. His view is that societies can choose any two out of democracy, national sovereignty, and economic integration but not all three. What the Brexit vote showed is people opting for the first two of those.
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not pretty
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.
Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end well
Surely the opposite. The EU, with CAP subsidising farmers and compulsory tariffs for those without - not least third world agricultural produces IS a modern day version of the corn laws.
I get your point but the EU being a zero tariff zone was the parallel I was drawing along with the nature of the Conservatives then and now. Cameron has many faults but 'ultra' and 'backwoodsman' are not among them.
Tory PBers, is ConHome representative of Tory members?
I know it's viewed as being to the right, but I'd say it's broadly representative. I'd be considered on the left of the Party these days (moving left as I get older) but I drop in occasionally and always take the surveys. Pre-referendum Gove was way out ahead in their last Leadership survey.
This genuinely scares me. A complete unknown, untested, non-Cabinet, non-front rank politician who has been an MP for a handful of years might be made PM by the end of August.
How do we know she wont be completely overwhelmed by being PM? We have no clue. None.
Gosh- that is where I know Angela Leadsom from. Oxfordshire County Council- she was a councillor. It was bugging me where I knew her from. That said, she hardly made any kind of impression on me.
Are you a) the Chief Exec of Oxfordshire County Council b) the Leader of the Conservative Group c) a member of the electorate - just so I can put appropriate weight to your lack of recollection!
And surprise, surprise, Leadsom was not a member of the County Council, she was a Councillor in South Oxfordshire District Council!
This genuinely scares me. A complete unknown, untested, non-Cabinet, non-front rank politician who has been an MP for a handful of years might be made PM by the end of August.
How do we know she wont be completely overwhelmed by being PM? We have no clue. None.
But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?
Con Home .. Its a voodoo poll at best at worst is completely bonkers(like its adherents). It has about as much value as asking my dogs. They are just as likely to bark at the right time
But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?
Probably bad news for Leadsom as MPs will now seek to keep her off the members ballot. Most of them aren't stupid enough to risk the reputational damage to the Party and the economic damage to the country that would result from a Leadsom win.
Con Home .. Its a voodoo poll at best at worst is completely bonkers(like its adherents). It has about as much value as asking my dogs. They are just as likely to bark at the right time
Doesn't make it meaningless - it's part of the narrative; it will be reported and be reported without provisos.
Con Home .. Its a voodoo poll at best at worst is completely bonkers(like its adherents). It has about as much value as asking my dogs. They are just as likely to bark at the right time
Doesn't make it meaningless - it's part of the narrative; it will be reported and be reported without provisos.
I am perplexed by the view EU citizens here should have rights guaranteed unilaterally, without a corresponding guarantee in place for UK citizens in the EU.
The vast majority of EU citizens in Britain are vibrant, professional, young and contributing massively to the economy. Our lot abroad, are mostly a bunch of inactive, elderly expats with a range of chronic health complaints.
I don't think May has quite thought through her bargaining position through since we would hope that the EU citizens stay, and none of the lumpen, idle, and mostly old expats return.
LOL
May's position is an absolutely nonsense. I don't think know of any EU citizen who has come to England to retire. Clacton on Sea doesn't quite cut it. They all come to the UK to work mostly.
Our lot abroad are predominantly oldies, tight fisted- as old people invariably are- and sponging off the local health system.
All the more reason to make sure they stay abroad and aren't returned by a victorious EU. May's negotiating position is the logical result of the Leave vote - as much as we regret it. Also I think we do pay towards UK citizens medical treatment abroad although I'm not sure of exact figures.
Maybe they could all live in a camp near calais. Shady pines jungle.
But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?
Probably bad news for Leadsom as MPs will now seek to keep her off the members ballot. Most of them aren't stupid enough to risk the reputational damage to the Party and the economic damage to the country that would result from a Leadsom win.
Are you sure? Anything seems to happen these days.
Con Home .. Its a voodoo poll at best at worst is completely bonkers(like its adherents). It has about as much value as asking my dogs. They are just as likely to bark at the right time
Doesn't make it meaningless - it's part of the narrative; it will be reported and be reported without provisos.
Now, a more important question: I'm toying with not buying any more Game of Thrones DVDs (got the first four seasons as the sets came out) until the series is done, then getting a big box set of all of it.
Sensible idea, or dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez?
Stuart seems to be suffering some kind of 'buyer's remorse". Suddenly the welfare of EU migrants is all of her biggest concern. I did say her demeanour seemed very bizarre throughout the campaign, as someone in a clear conflict or crisis ; simultaneously highly emotional and very disconnected.
The collective intelligence of the Leave campaign is roughly similar to that of a small school of rainbow trout.
And yet you lost. Isn't that so humiliating?
No. Dumb invective beats intelligent nuance when dealing with the Great British Public – one of the great many problems with referendums.
God - Jobatwobob in superior being mode - not pretty
One of the bizarre elements of the referendum is the role of the free market Thatcherites championing the WWC. I wonder if after all this time, is this simply guilt kicking in since they destroyed these very communities through their neo liberal ideology and have shown no remorse since.
Or have they stoked up the WWC by playing the race card and making promises about all this money that will come back to them in pursuit of another nihilistic cause.
Conservatism has always been divided between those who most cherish economic integration, and those who most cherish tradition and sovereignty. Sometimes the same person will be pulled between both directions. This time round, Conservatives split about 60/40 for the latter, but some very wealthy Conservative areas voted the other way.
Yup - Brexit was basically a victory which has reversed the Repeal of the Corn Laws - I hope not but fear it may not end well
I think it's Joseph Stiglitz who has theorised that globalisation puts the integrity of nation states under stress. His view is that societies can choose any two out of democracy, national sovereignty, and economic integration but not all three. What the Brexit vote showed is people opting for the first two of those.
If we, of our own free will, pool our sovereignty for the greater good and consequently our own benefit too, we resolve the three things. But pooled sovereignty needs to be sold and it is a harder sell to make than barking "control" at every turn.
Yep, May supporters must now vote tactically for Gove.
No question about it.
This is what members of political parties are like. For the last year we've seen people laughing at Labour members for choosing Corbyn. This shows the Conservatives are just the same - with members completely out of line with the mainstream of public opinion.
Con MPs now have a very serious job on their hands. Lab MPs didn't get their job done and are now paying a massive price. Will Con MPs now do the same?
I agree with Alastair's post and the implicit conclusion that there's only one reasonable choice.
Theresa May should propose a motion to the Commons within a few days that the government should make a proper plan for Brexit and lay it before the Commons within three months, and that if the Commons approves the plan then the government will also lay it before the people in a referendum. Phrase the first motion as "This house has confidence in the government and its proposal". See how the Leavite Tory MPs fancy defending their seats next month against LibDems and how their Remainer colleagues rate their chances against UKIP.
It's about time that a government showed a bit of leadership. Leadership, thigh-high boots and cleavage - what more can we ask?
Given Theresa's penchant for showing cleavage, when the next referendum comes she may even be able to persuade the Sun to cause the right side to win, rather than the wrong side as it did last week. And next time, can we only have British citizens on the franchise please? I'll compromise and allow the Irish to have a vote, in the interests of friendship and because the British and they used to be in the same country and legally speaking "Ireland is not a foreign country". But Australians, Canadians, Indians - no. This is an issue of British foreign policy. It's not electing the local council.
Oh and could someone ask why the monarch hasn't complained about the Sun's front page article on the eve of the referendum?
That Liam Fox is on the ticket is remarkable. One name: Adam Werritty. I hope May doesn't offer him a job. What's he even doing in parliament?
But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?
It consolidates Leadsom as the UKIP candidate and the Leadsomites as kippers-manque
Tory PBers, is ConHome representative of Tory members?
I doubt it is, anymore than this place is representative of the electorate as whole. The collective wisdom of PB tends to be wrong on all the big decisions.
There are some posters who do tend to get it right but you must do your own research.
Are the tories crazy enough when given the choice of someone who has held down the post of home Sectretary (normally the graveyard of political careers) for over six years and someone no one heard of until a couple of recent TV debates....
At a time when it is vital to have a calm experienced hand on the tiller...
Vote for the complete unknown?
Well they turned down Ken Clarke, one of the best leaders they've never had and an MP since 1970 in favour of IDS.
A point I made earlier - and I bloody voted for him. I was young what can I say...
People tend to become more right wing as they age. To what do we attribute this?
There is a theory that people stay where they are but the zeitgeist moves left. In the 1960s radical causes might have included equal pay for women, homosexual or abortion rights. Those battles have been won. You can repeat the thought exercise for later decades. It is not as if anyone yearns to send small boys up chimneys on collecting their free bus pass.
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.
But is that a proper poll or just internet voodoo?
Doesn't claim to be a proper poll - it's a reader survey. But 1200 responses, and they do a monthly survey. The point is it consolidates Leadsom as May's challenger and rules out a coronation. Leadsom can point at it and ask why should she pull out?
Probably bad news for Leadsom as MPs will now seek to keep her off the members ballot. Most of them aren't stupid enough to risk the reputational damage to the Party and the economic damage to the country that would result from a Leadsom win.
Are you sure? Anything seems to happen these days.
Yep, May supporters must now vote tactically for Gove.
No question about it.
This is what members of political parties are like. For the last year we've seen people laughing at Labour members for choosing Corbyn. This shows the Conservatives are just the same - with members completely out of line with the mainstream of public opinion.
Con MPs now have a very serious job on their hands. Lab MPs didn't get their job done and are now paying a massive price. Will Con MPs now do the same?
At least the Tories retained a system where MPs have serious say in matters and also don't allow anyone with £3 to vote. Ed Miliband should have resigned from Labour in disgrace over that idea.
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.
Hmm. Even a Remainic like me thinks that's a bit odd. It's only been a week.
This genuinely scares me. A complete unknown, untested, non-Cabinet, non-front rank politician who has been an MP for a handful of years might be made PM by the end of August.
How do we know she wont be completely overwhelmed by being PM? We have no clue. None.
Truly politics has gone bonkers.
That's why it simply has to be May vs Gove before the members. An insurance policy. I wouldn't want Gove to win, but I could live with that (as could the country) more than Leadsom winning.
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
Leavers would argue that it is because of all the over-egged warnings, and then complete failure to prepare for a Leave decision, that is causing the problems.
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.
Hmm. Even a Remainic like me thinks that's a bit odd. It's only been a week.
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.
Their business has collapsed because they were pro-Brexit???
Those REMAINIACS are vicious.
Also, I do not believe a restaurant can collapse just 9 days after a vote, because of that vote.
Sorry I meant post-Brexit. These are stressful times...
The Number Cruncher Politics central projection of 52.7 percent "remain" and 47.3 percent "leave" would have equated to remain gaining 16.2 million votes and "leave" 14.5 million among existing 2015 voters. Using the same samples, but with a likely voter screen that reflects the actual turnout pattern, gives "remain" 16.1 million, "leave" 17.4 million – the exact result."
Great to hear Andrea guaranteeing the rights of those EU workers already here the right to stay. May and Hammond are pathetic. Even if the EU commences the ethnic cleansing of Brits from Europe, we should not take out on innocent EU citizens who have made Britain their home.
Now, a more important question: I'm toying with not buying any more Game of Thrones DVDs (got the first four seasons as the sets came out) until the series is done, then getting a big box set of all of it.
Sensible idea, or dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez?
The Number Cruncher Politics central projection of 52.7 percent "remain" and 47.3 percent "leave" would have equated to remain gaining 16.2 million votes and "leave" 14.5 million among existing 2015 voters. Using the same samples, but with a likely voter screen that reflects the actual turnout pattern, gives "remain" 16.1 million, "leave" 17.4 million – the exact result."
Bloody hell.
If we hadn't said X and predicted Y and then maybe had said Z.......
Well, he would certainly help Theresa win, but having two Remainers fight it out for the job would utterly destroy the Tory Party once and for all. It has to be May vs a Brexiter, and May has to win.
Well, he would certainly help Theresa win, but having two Remainers fight it out for the job would utterly destroy the Tory Party once and for all. It has to be May vs a Brexiter, and May has to win.
I think I've lost count of the things that would utterly destroy the Tory party...
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
Leavers would argue that it is because of all the over-egged warnings, and then complete failure to prepare for a Leave decision, that is causing the problems.
The one prediction I got right is that Leavers would blame those that warned about stuff going wrong rather than those that dismissed the warnings as fearmongering and carried on regardless.
The key point about Cassandra was that she was right about the Trojan Horse.
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
Another set of experts making stuff up about the property business. Really, haven't they got the message yet?
Commercial property sector was dead in run up to Brexit vote = expectation was once it was out the way, it would kick back in - but not so due to the shock result.
Being such an illiquid investment asset, swings between buyers and sellers are a problem as we saw last time the sector crashed after a prolonged boom. It could 'snap back' but I rather doubt it and I'm very defensively positioned for clients now in the sector and been cashing out those with larger % exposures. The often 5% bid/offer hit to pricing is one thing but being locked in for months isn't fun.
This genuinely scares me. A complete unknown, untested, non-Cabinet, non-front rank politician who has been an MP for a handful of years might be made PM by the end of August.
How do we know she wont be completely overwhelmed by being PM? We have no clue. None.
Truly politics has gone bonkers.
It's a survey of ConHome readers, not Tory members.
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
Could just be jitters.
*buys tinned food*
Who needs money or food when you've taken back control.
Feel the sovereignty.
There is no way to square this circle. People really really don't want uncontrolled immigration. They really DO want to take back control of the borders. How do you do that without crashing the economy?
Answers on an e-postcard to Number 10
You have a political class with the gumption and the leadership skills to convince the voters of the benefits of immigration.
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
I today had an email from a local restaurant claiming that they were shutting down because their business has collapsed pro-Brexit. So it's at all levels.
I find that difficult to believe. Unless most of the diners are Eurocrats.
There's no denying these are ominous signs. Property underpins the UK economy.
Brrr.
We may yet see a reversal of the vote. Or May (if she wins) has to come out and say it's EEA at the minimum, with the Single Market, so very little will change economically - to calm things.
Watch London where nearly 40% of residents are born abroad.
Many BTL landlords are dependent on a never ending flow of migrant workers to give them their yield.
A combination of the Benefits Cap, the BTL tax regime and now this are squeezing them.
The average home in London is now trading at nearly £500k -four times the level of most of the country.
The rest of the country won't feel this anywhere near as much, but London...
If only someone has warned you that a Brexit vote was like setting a bomb under the UK economy huh?
CONTEXT, guys. The sector was already deep in shit back in February because of excess outflows, when the referendum was invisibly far in the future and everyone knew remain were going to walk it anyway. Post Brexit non est propter Brexit.
Comments
Who is there in Labour - zilch
LDs ? - nada
UKIP ? hmmmm
This is more of a sad indictment on our whole politcal class than just the Tories.
I'm glad I'm out though. I worked through a golden era when I could develop services. I don't blame the Tories for austerity though, but I'm glad I didn't have to be responsible for the cuts and reorganisations that followed my departure.
Halfon, the beer-tax-cutting Tombstoner, just came out for Theresa May.
"The missing piece to the puzzle is referendum turnout. At 72 percent, turnout was very high by modern standards. Low turnout was expected to make Brexit more likely, given that Brexit supporters were more enthusiastic and would form a larger proportion of a low turnout. But the high turnout raises a different question: Who were the 2.8 million new voters?
The BES's 2015 study had suggested that non-voters as a whole had similar views on the EU to voters generally; they encompassed both idealistic (yet politically disinterested) youngsters and disaffected blue-collar workers. We now know that what former BBC political editor Nick Robinson observed when he spoke to people in the northeastern city of Sunderland was no fluke: Many who hadn’t voted since the 1980s turned out heavily to vote "leave." Anecdotes can mislead, but this one is supported by analysis....
The slope of the fit line implies that a one-vote increase in turnout almost equals a one-vote increase in the "leave" vote. In other words, the net impact of the 2.8 million extra votes was entirely to the benefit of the Brexiters."
Which door does he open?
The campaign needed to be fronted by David Miliband, and Ken Clarke.
Virtually every pollster had a definite to vote response that said Leave would win after purdah had been reached.
Populus were especially shocking though.
People tend to become more right wing as they age.
To what do we attribute this?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125439415
But even still it has a big effect on momentum and the other also rans, it also rules out a May coronation.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/07/our-special-next-party-leader-survey-result-its-a-two-horse-race-activists-want-leadsom-v-may-in-the-final.html
How do we know she wont be completely overwhelmed by being PM? We have no clue. None.
Truly politics has gone bonkers.
Now, a more important question: I'm toying with not buying any more Game of Thrones DVDs (got the first four seasons as the sets came out) until the series is done, then getting a big box set of all of it.
Sensible idea, or dafter than a mongoose wearing a fez?
No question about it.
This is what members of political parties are like. For the last year we've seen people laughing at Labour members for choosing Corbyn. This shows the Conservatives are just the same - with members completely out of line with the mainstream of public opinion.
Con MPs now have a very serious job on their hands. Lab MPs didn't get their job done and are now paying a massive price. Will Con MPs now do the same?
Theresa May should propose a motion to the Commons within a few days that the government should make a proper plan for Brexit and lay it before the Commons within three months, and that if the Commons approves the plan then the government will also lay it before the people in a referendum. Phrase the first motion as "This house has confidence in the government and its proposal". See how the Leavite Tory MPs fancy defending their seats next month against LibDems and how their Remainer colleagues rate their chances against UKIP.
It's about time that a government showed a bit of leadership. Leadership, thigh-high boots and cleavage - what more can we ask?
Given Theresa's penchant for showing cleavage, when the next referendum comes she may even be able to persuade the Sun to cause the right side to win, rather than the wrong side as it did last week. And next time, can we only have British citizens on the franchise please? I'll compromise and allow the Irish to have a vote, in the interests of friendship and because the British and they used to be in the same country and legally speaking "Ireland is not a foreign country". But Australians, Canadians, Indians - no. This is an issue of British foreign policy. It's not electing the local council.
Oh and could someone ask why the monarch hasn't complained about the Sun's front page article on the eve of the referendum?
That Liam Fox is on the ticket is remarkable. One name: Adam Werritty. I hope May doesn't offer him a job. What's he even doing in parliament?
There are some posters who do tend to get it right but you must do your own research.
We vote to stay in on what people perceive as the status quo, then Martin Schulz reveals he wants the Commission to become a Government of the EU.
Economic uncertainty is a bad thing, but also a transient thing.
Please Tory MPs, make sure it's May vs Gove.
Leavers would argue that it is because of all the over-egged warnings, and then complete failure to prepare for a Leave decision, that is causing the problems.
Mr. Sykes, no taste for Crabb?
Bloody hell.
Feel the sovereignty.
They screwed up enormously.
People desperate to get out??
The key point about Cassandra was that she was right about the Trojan Horse.
Being such an illiquid investment asset, swings between buyers and sellers are a problem as we saw last time the sector crashed after a prolonged boom. It could 'snap back' but I rather doubt it and I'm very defensively positioned for clients now in the sector and been cashing out those with larger % exposures. The often 5% bid/offer hit to pricing is one thing but being locked in for months isn't fun.
Many BTL landlords are dependent on a never ending flow of migrant workers to give them their yield.
A combination of the Benefits Cap, the BTL tax regime and now this are squeezing them.
The average home in London is now trading at nearly £500k -four times the level of most of the country.
The rest of the country won't feel this anywhere near as much, but London...
Edit linky for you: https://next.ft.com/content/1b359b94-1b77-11e6-b286-cddde55ca122