politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON leadership line-up is worryingly thin
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Yes, my WhatsApp straw poll of Zac campaigners had May with a big lead regardless of leave/remain. I think people who think that the party is still split along those lines and are trying to take advantage of it are in for a surprise. Look at Grayling and Davis as an example of how that divide is yesterday's news. Both were high profile die hard leavers and both have declared for May. Here's the results of the straw poll of members, more replied than the first time, it is not demographically representative and entirely anecdata.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of here predecessors had failed to solve).
41 people responded
Outright preference:
May - 27
Gove - 7
Leadsom - 4
Fox - 2
Crabb - 1
Matchups:
May - 33
Gove - 8
May - 28
Leadsom - 10
DK - 1
Leave voters - 24
Remain voters - 17
Members based in North and West London mainly.0 -
I get increasingly bored by nay-sayers who claim we'd be lucky to get a deal like Norway. We're 5th largest economy, Norway is 13th.John_M said:
That's an excellent point. Our #1 export market is the US. China is #5 on our import list. No hablo FTAs with either. The US has a grand total of 20 FTAs.david_kendrick1 said:
We don't need trade deals deals with the rest of the world. We've never had a trade deal with the US. Over 1M Brits work for American companies, and over 1M Yanks work for Briish companies. Trade deals are vastly over-rated.Scott_P said:
Bollocksdavid_kendrick1 said:May explained that she was going to delegate the job of negotiating Brexit to a minister who backed Leave.
That on its own ought to disqualify her as PM material.
Those negotiations aren't just one of the jobs of the next PM They ought to be his prime focus---pretty much his only concern. It is absolutely key. This is personal to the PM. The harder, and better he works and achieves with our European friends, the better for all of us.
If the Brexiteers are right, we also need to be negotiating with all of the the other trading nations in the World.
Are they less important than the EU, in which case the case for leaving has a slight problem?
Trade deals are immaterial (except at the margin, with out-of-date restrictive groups like the EU). That is where the new PM should concentrate, and really only there because of recent history.
If there were no EU, we'd probably want to do trade deals with 9 or 10 of the EU27, tops.
I'm not saying they don't matter, of course. It'd take a lot of spade work to figure out what the UK's economic priorities should be. More than I'm prepared to do, unpaid
.
It's such a bizarre self-defeating mindset. I genuinely have no idea who'd seriously think like this, especially so if they were from a commercial negotiation background.0 -
KENBO CLARKE
The choice from a Greater Britain in Europe.0 -
KENBO CLARKE
The choice for a Greater Britain in Europe.0 -
Currently:
Johanna Baxter (Div. III - CLPs)
Ann Black (Div. III - CLPs)
Ken Livingstone (Div. III - CLPs) -Suspended
Ellie Reeves (NEC Vice-chair - Div. III - CLPs)
Christine Shawcroft (Div. III - CLPs)
Pete Willsman (Div. III - CLPs)0 -
That was a party political broadcast for the Theresa May campaign.PlatoSaid said:Well, I watched Leadsom's whole press conf and thought she was excellent - and handled tricky stuff with aplomb and good humour.
The room laughed with her twice.
I'm feeling pretty confident about her.0 -
It is so obvious a point, it's hard to believe it even needs making.SeanT said:
Yes, exactly that. In this "golden pre-A50 period" we have several cards to play. One of which is, itself, When will they trigger A50? That is entirely our choice.TOPPING said:
But hold on...are you saying that if we don't trigger we will have a say and influence over the EU? The EU that shuts us out at every turn, outvotes us, and generally bullies us? But now in this golden pre-A50 period we will be important and influential?SeanT said:Agree it should be May. Gove is unelectable, Fox ditto, Crabb is a gag, Leadsom has mad policies.
Relatedly, FPT for Philip T on A50
No, triggering it at once it's insane. Once you invoke it you are locked out of all EU decisions, lose all your leverage, and you just have to hurriedly plead your case, because a two year deadline is imposed, after which you're out, entirely, and into the WTO.
If you think things are uncertain now, it will be ten times worse after A50 is triggered, if we have no informal agreement on the Single Market in place.
Also, during that two years (if we trigger now) there are French and German elections, which could change things entirely, so we might start negotiating with Hollande and end up negotiating with Sarkozy, ditto in Berlin.
This is a recipe for disaster, even if all sides have the best will in the world (which they don't).
Oh my aching sides.
We should be using this period, which we can prolong for as long as the markets allow, to talk to the City, industry, all the political parties, everyone, to see what they want, and what they think is deliverable. At the same time talk to European capitals, and our friends in Washington and elsewhere. Informal negotiations.
Once we have triggered A50 all these discussions will be telescoped into 24 months, at the end of which we are ejected to the WTO and outside all the EU stuff we like (science, education, etc), if we have no agreement. Suddenly the pressure is on us to concede on everything, because the alternative is worse.
Fuck that. A50 is ours to trigger when we like, and significant delay suits us (if the markets permit). May is entirely right. Leadsom is utterly wrong.
But then we are dealing with fruitcakes and whackjobs....0 -
Is this Charlotte's new job now Full time SJW. The voice of an ungrateful generation.tlg86 said:0 -
Simba is going to be chucking his hat in the ring shortly.Jobabob said:
That was a party political broadcast for the Theresa May campaign.PlatoSaid said:Well, I watched Leadsom's whole press conf and thought she was excellent - and handled tricky stuff with aplomb and good humour.
The room laughed with her twice.
I'm feeling pretty confident about her.0 -
Sometimes organisations/people do not behave rationally. The way our economies are integrated, we need more than a free trade agreement with the EU, we need to be part of the Single Market. They know that, and we know that.PlatoSaid said:
I get increasingly bored by nay-sayers who claim we'd be lucky to get a deal like Norway. We're 5th largest economy, Norway is 13th.John_M said:
That's an excellent point. Our #1 export market is the US. China is #5 on our import list. No hablo FTAs with either. The US has a grand total of 20 FTAs.david_kendrick1 said:
We don't need trade deals deals with the rest of the world. We've never had a trade deal with the US. Over 1M Brits work for American companies, and over 1M Yanks work for Briish companies. Trade deals are vastly over-rated.Scott_P said:
Bollocksdavid_kendrick1 said:May explained that she was going to delegate the job of negotiating Brexit to a minister who backed Leave.
That on its own ought to disqualify her as PM material.
Those negotiations aren't just one of the jobs of the next PM They ought to be his prime focus---pretty much his only concern. It is absolutely key. This is personal to the PM. The harder, and better he works and achieves with our European friends, the better for all of us.
If the Brexiteers are right, we also need to be negotiating with all of the the other trading nations in the World.
Are they less important than the EU, in which case the case for leaving has a slight problem?
Trade deals are immaterial (except at the margin, with out-of-date restrictive groups like the EU). That is where the new PM should concentrate, and really only there because of recent history.
If there were no EU, we'd probably want to do trade deals with 9 or 10 of the EU27, tops.
I'm not saying they don't matter, of course. It'd take a lot of spade work to figure out what the UK's economic priorities should be. More than I'm prepared to do, unpaid.
It's such a bizarre self-defeating mindset. I genuinely have no idea who'd seriously think like this, especially so if they were from a commercial negotiation background.
Our economy is not integrated with any other trading bloc/economy around the world in such a way.
We are in a good negotiating position, but if we have migration control as a red line, it might not end up holding if we want an agreement.0 -
Politico Daily
Bercow grants UQs:
1) @GiselaStuart: Legal status of EU nationals living in UK
2) @johnmcdonnellMP: Govt surplus target & corporation tax0 -
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Yes, absolutely right...just had Remain won, most of us would have had no problem with a moderate Leaver as next leader. The division at grass roots levels between members was nothing like as rancorous as the national campaigns might have suggested.SeanT said:
Isn't that kinda the point of May, and one reason she is the likely winner? She unites the party, as a tepid REMAINIAC.JohnO said:
Also out with friends (all active party members) on Friday and overwhelmingly for May and I was the only Remainer too. She's going to win big.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of here predecessors had failed to solve).
All the others will badly divide the Tories, and - though I'm not a Tory - I get the sense the party wants to come together, and go back to governing - and having the odd hearty laugh at Labour.0 -
You have to remember she is trying to win over members rather than the public at large. However, most members I know aren't interested in plumping for an unknown. As I said, the most I see her supported is by internet commenters, most of whom don't have a vote.Jobabob said:
That was a party political broadcast for the Theresa May campaign.PlatoSaid said:Well, I watched Leadsom's whole press conf and thought she was excellent - and handled tricky stuff with aplomb and good humour.
The room laughed with her twice.
I'm feeling pretty confident about her.0 -
The aspect that isn't been discussed enough on PB but among my fellow Tory activists there's a desire to choose the most electable leader, so we don't want to see PM Corbyn on our fucking watch.SeanT said:
Isn't that kinda the point of May, and one reason she is the likely winner? She unites the party, as a tepid REMAINIAC.JohnO said:
Also out with friends (all active party members) on Friday and overwhelmingly for May and I was the only Remainer too. She's going to win big.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of here predecessors had failed to solve).
All the others will badly divide the Tories, and - though I'm not a Tory - I get the sense the party wants to come together, and go back to governing - and having the odd hearty laugh at Labour.
Future generations will never forgive us.0 -
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??0 -
Or have a vote for a different party.MaxPB said:
You have to remember she is trying to win over members rather than the public at large. However, most members I know aren't interested in plumping for an unknown. As I said, the most I see her supported is by internet commenters, most of whom don't have a vote.Jobabob said:
That was a party political broadcast for the Theresa May campaign.PlatoSaid said:Well, I watched Leadsom's whole press conf and thought she was excellent - and handled tricky stuff with aplomb and good humour.
The room laughed with her twice.
I'm feeling pretty confident about her.0 -
As it stands, the Conservatives could elect a small stuffed toy to be leader and win in 2020.TheScreamingEagles said:
The aspect that isn't been discussed enough on PB but among my fellow Tory activists there's a desire to choose the most electable leader, so we don't want to see PM Corbyn on our fucking watch.SeanT said:
Isn't that kinda the point of May, and one reason she is the likely winner? She unites the party, as a tepid REMAINIAC.JohnO said:
Also out with friends (all active party members) on Friday and overwhelmingly for May and I was the only Remainer too. She's going to win big.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of here predecessors had failed to solve).
All the others will badly divide the Tories, and - though I'm not a Tory - I get the sense the party wants to come together, and go back to governing - and having the odd hearty laugh at Labour.
Future generations will never forgive us.
Corbyn is a symptom of Labour's woes, not the cause of them.0 -
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??0 -
It is surely only out of his innate statesmanship and reluctance to cause division and discord that he hasn't done so already.Pulpstar said:
Simba is going to be chucking his hat in the ring shortly.Jobabob said:
That was a party political broadcast for the Theresa May campaign.PlatoSaid said:Well, I watched Leadsom's whole press conf and thought she was excellent - and handled tricky stuff with aplomb and good humour.
The room laughed with her twice.
I'm feeling pretty confident about her.0 -
Is this why she pulled out of WATO?
@JohnRentoul: Leadsom used to be for Out to get a better In deal. Thanks to @LeyNathan for reminding me of this. https://t.co/9FfqDxwKfg0 -
I'm guessing either Plaid or UKIP is up....AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/7499426201981501440 -
The fear I have sensed is that we need someone electable in case Labour come to their senses and finally depose Corbyn. Their travails over the last few days has definitely brought that theoretical threat much closer to reality. May answers that question as well where the others don't, possibly apart from Crabb.TheScreamingEagles said:
The aspect that isn't been discussed enough on PB but among my fellow Tory activists there's a desire to choose the most electable leader, so we don't want to see PM Corbyn on our fucking watch.SeanT said:
Isn't that kinda the point of May, and one reason she is the likely winner? She unites the party, as a tepid REMAINIAC.JohnO said:
Also out with friends (all active party members) on Friday and overwhelmingly for May and I was the only Remainer too. She's going to win big.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of here predecessors had failed to solve).
All the others will badly divide the Tories, and - though I'm not a Tory - I get the sense the party wants to come together, and go back to governing - and having the odd hearty laugh at Labour.
Future generations will never forgive us.0 -
Ken has resigned last week in order to let fellow left winger Darren Williams (next in line on 2014 results) get in and attend meetings with voting right.
Williams has been called by head of dispute and discipline for a meeting today. Apparently he's accused to have "taken a photo of Welsh Labour print material and sent this to the press.”Pulpstar said:Currently:
Johanna Baxter (Div. III - CLPs)
Ann Black (Div. III - CLPs)
Ken Livingstone (Div. III - CLPs) -Suspended
Ellie Reeves (NEC Vice-chair - Div. III - CLPs)
Christine Shawcroft (Div. III - CLPs)
Pete Willsman (Div. III - CLPs)0 -
What were they thinking off in that location. A small room with photographers jumping up and down and then taking over again after she had done some questions, preventing more, and completely obscuring her from the broadcast media camerasPlatoSaid said:Well, I watched Leadsom's whole press conf and thought she was excellent - and handled tricky stuff with aplomb and good humour.
The room laughed with her twice.
I'm feeling pretty confident about her.
Compare and contrast Theresa May's launch in an elegant library with plenty of photographic opportunities and unrestricted access to her on questions.
I am sure this will be said many times - 'This is not the time for a novice'0 -
It has to be UKIP.Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??0 -
Incredibly quick response to the news of Farage's resignationAlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%?? 0 -
Plaid up two points, no doubt.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/7499426201981501440 -
That too. We have to assume that GE 2020 labour are led by someone like Dan JarvisMaxPB said:
The fear I have sensed is that we need someone electable in case Labour come to their senses and finally depose Corbyn. Their travails over the last few days has definitely brought that theoretical threat much closer to reality. May answers that question as well where the others don't, possibly apart from Crabb.TheScreamingEagles said:
The aspect that isn't been discussed enough on PB but among my fellow Tory activists there's a desire to choose the most electable leader, so we don't want to see PM Corbyn on our fucking watch.SeanT said:
Isn't that kinda the point of May, and one reason she is the likely winner? She unites the party, as a tepid REMAINIAC.JohnO said:
Also out with friends (all active party members) on Friday and overwhelmingly for May and I was the only Remainer too. She's going to win big.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of here predecessors had failed to solve).
All the others will badly divide the Tories, and - though I'm not a Tory - I get the sense the party wants to come together, and go back to governing - and having the odd hearty laugh at Labour.
Future generations will never forgive us.0 -
Why don't we extend the "significant delay" to NEVER ?SeanT said:
Yes, exactly that. In this "golden pre-A50 period" we have several cards to play. One of which is, itself, When will they trigger A50? That is entirely our choice.TOPPING said:
But hold on...are you saying that if we don't trigger we will have a say and influence over the EU? The EU that shuts us out at every turn, outvotes us, and generally bullies us? But now in this golden pre-A50 period we will be important and influential?SeanT said:Agree it should be May. Gove is unelectable, Fox ditto, Crabb is a gag, Leadsom has mad policies.
Relatedly, FPT for Philip T on A50
No, triggering it at once it's insane. Once you invoke it you are locked out of all EU decisions, lose all your leverage, and you just have to hurriedly plead your case, because a two year deadline is imposed, after which you're out, entirely, and into the WTO.
If you think things are uncertain now, it will be ten times worse after A50 is triggered, if we have no informal agreement on the Single Market in place.
Also, during that two years (if we trigger now) there are French and German elections, which could change things entirely, so we might start negotiating with Hollande and end up negotiating with Sarkozy, ditto in Berlin.
This is a recipe for disaster, even if all sides have the best will in the world (which they don't).
Oh my aching sides.
We should be using this period, which we can prolong for as long as the markets allow, to talk to the City, industry, all the political parties, everyone, to see what they want, and what they think is deliverable. At the same time talk to European capitals, and our friends in Washington and elsewhere. Informal negotiations.
Once we have triggered A50 all these discussions will be telescoped into 24 months, at the end of which we are ejected to the WTO and outside all the EU stuff we like (science, education, etc), if we have no agreement. Suddenly the pressure is on us to concede on everything, because the alternative is worse.
Fuck that. A50 is ours to trigger when we like, and significant delay suits us (if the markets permit). May is entirely right. Leadsom is utterly wrong.
Next question: how long does the remit of a referendum last even if it only advisory ? Surely not beyond the following general election ?0 -
Mainly of the purple kind...TOPPING said:
Or have a vote for a different party.MaxPB said:
You have to remember she is trying to win over members rather than the public at large. However, most members I know aren't interested in plumping for an unknown. As I said, the most I see her supported is by internet commenters, most of whom don't have a vote.Jobabob said:
That was a party political broadcast for the Theresa May campaign.PlatoSaid said:Well, I watched Leadsom's whole press conf and thought she was excellent - and handled tricky stuff with aplomb and good humour.
The room laughed with her twice.
I'm feeling pretty confident about her.0 -
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??0 -
Mr Betting, I cannot but feel that you are still in Tory Party Leave mode. You, know, saying whatever you like, in the hopes that it will be damaging enough. It worked brilliantly for Johnson, Gove, Farage, Leadsom and others -most of whom have now slunked away leaving their mess for others to clear up.TCPoliticalBetting said:So how about Mr Meeks, writing your view about Farron (remember him) wanting the LDs to stand on a "get us back in" commitment in their 2020 manifesto irrespective of what happens over the next 4 years? Is that a) wise, b) desperate or c) a hostage to future evenets
Back to the point. Where has Tim Farron said that he wants the country to be in the EU "irrespective of what happens over the next 4 years"? I don`t remember that.0 -
@MrHarryCole: Latest Corbyn hostage video https://t.co/kUV2SA2fWp0
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Plaidslide!Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??0 -
Federer progresses, completely untroubled.0
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BBC are running about a Vote Leave email that fails to thank Leadsom whilst thanking everyone else. Also refers to leadership election but mentions Gove and May but nobody else. Hmm.0
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“What we fail to consider is what ‘out’ really means,” Andrea Leadsom, co-founder of Fresh Start, said in an interview in London. “If Britain votes to leave the EU, we haven’t left: we start negotiations. That set of negotiations to leave may even be more fruitful than the negotiations before the referendum.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-14/tory-seeking-to-keep-u-k-in-eu-says-out-vote-might-help0 -
Darren McCaffrey
WATCH: Labour Leader finally appears on camera, no journalists, no questions but message: I'm going nowhere. https://t.co/wUgQXUp9nP0 -
She's become the darling of Leave.EU, UKIP and the Tombstone Group. Vote Leave was a Cameroon project at its core.ToryJim said:BBC are running about a Vote Leave email that fails to thank Leadsom whilst thanking everyone else. Also refers to leadership election but mentions Gove and May but nobody else. Hmm.
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So to summarise... A leader for hard times:
Gove – a gossipy backstabber who treats the UK like an Oxford debating society
Leadsom – a Platoite far right frother funded by Ukip who was a europhile until 2013
Crabb – a bible basher who thinks homosexuality is a disease that can be cured
Fox – Liam Fox, Fox, Fox
May – a teetotal 60-year-old lady with bags of experience who spends her holidays hill walking with her husband
Now let me think.0 -
Well, evens on Cameron out before Corbyn seems good value at the moment. (No idea if it's still available)PlatoSaid said:Darren McCaffrey
WATCH: Labour Leader finally appears on camera, no journalists, no questions but message: I'm going nowhere. https://t.co/wUgQXUp9nP0 -
I'm not sure that the Tories are considering that actually. There are definitely more electorally appealing MPs than May.John_M said:
As it stands, the Conservatives could elect a small stuffed toy to be leader and win in 2020.TheScreamingEagles said:
The aspect that isn't been discussed enough on PB but among my fellow Tory activists there's a desire to choose the most electable leader, so we don't want to see PM Corbyn on our fucking watch.SeanT said:
Isn't that kinda the point of May, and one reason she is the likely winner? She unites the party, as a tepid REMAINIAC.JohnO said:
Also out with friends (all active party members) on Friday and overwhelmingly for May and I was the only Remainer too. She's going to win big.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of here predecessors had failed to solve).
All the others will badly divide the Tories, and - though I'm not a Tory - I get the sense the party wants to come together, and go back to governing - and having the odd hearty laugh at Labour.
Future generations will never forgive us.
Corbyn is a symptom of Labour's woes, not the cause of them.
Rather it may well be she is so far ahead because Labour are in such a mess. If there was a fear of Labour winning I think we might be considering a different range of options (though Mr Meeks would be appalled by their lack of experience.)
I think we're having a bit of a young cardinals moment As the oldest option by some way - 60 later this year, the younger brighter contenders are thinking they've a chance in 8 years prior to 2025. They'll be 50 or so and have been in the Cabinet a while.0 -
. She was very savvy.. end of.PlatoSaid said:
Well quite. Having seen May's track record over 6yrs - I really can't see much merit in it myself. Her MacCavity act during Remain campaign speaks volumes. She hides. And we've noticed.Patrick said:Alastair did you think the same of Labour in 1997? What were you saying about Blair? Grumbling about his experience? You never know how someone will do in a top job until they do it. Gordon Brown was the most experienced psychopath we've ever had in No.10.
0 -
It's the bloody rules that are preventing the deposition, not the will!!MaxPB said:
The fear I have sensed is that we need someone electable in case Labour come to their senses and finally depose Corbyn. Their travails over the last few days has definitely brought that theoretical threat much closer to reality. May answers that question as well where the others don't, possibly apart from Crabb.TheScreamingEagles said:
The aspect that isn't been discussed enough on PB but among my fellow Tory activists there's a desire to choose the most electable leader, so we don't want to see PM Corbyn on our fucking watch.SeanT said:
Isn't that kinda the point of May, and one reason she is the likely winner? She unites the party, as a tepid REMAINIAC.JohnO said:
Also out with friends (all active party members) on Friday and overwhelmingly for May and I was the only Remainer too. She's going to win big.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of here predecessors had failed to solve).
All the others will badly divide the Tories, and - though I'm not a Tory - I get the sense the party wants to come together, and go back to governing - and having the odd hearty laugh at Labour.
Future generations will never forgive us.
That all said, Portillo thinks that Corbyn will need nominations (which he won't get) – says the incumbency rule won't stand up in court because Corbyn doesn't have the support of the PLP.0 -
Yes of course I shouldnt have lumped a whole group together, like the way people call everyone who voted leave stupid and racist.Bob__Sykes said:0 -
It's interesting that at least 3 (I don't know about Gove or Fox) consider themselves committed Christians. I wonder if parliament has a higher than proportional number of people of faith (of all kinds)? And their faith leads to a belief in duty.Jobabob said:So to summarise... A leader for hard times:
Gove – a gossipy backstabber who treats the UK like an Oxford debating society
Leadsom – a Platoite far right frother funded by Ukip who was a europhile until 2013
Crabb – a bible basher who thinks homosexuality is a disease that can be cured
Fox – Liam Fox, Fox, Fox
May – a teetotal 60-year-old lady with bags of experience who spends her holidays hill walking with her husband
Now let me think.0 -
IIRC thus far, of all the Conservative members posting here, is Plato the only one to declare for Leadsom with May capturing literally every one else? Can't recall that Gove, Crabb and Fox have attracted any votes. It's a sign I tell you....0
-
Yes - turns out she was a good politician.SquareRoot said:
. She was very savvy.. end of.PlatoSaid said:
Well quite. Having seen May's track record over 6yrs - I really can't see much merit in it myself. Her MacCavity act during Remain campaign speaks volumes. She hides. And we've noticed.Patrick said:Alastair did you think the same of Labour in 1997? What were you saying about Blair? Grumbling about his experience? You never know how someone will do in a top job until they do it. Gordon Brown was the most experienced psychopath we've ever had in No.10.
0 -
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."0 -
Labour collapse.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/7499426201981501440 -
Still can’t believe Fox bothered to stand – the man’s an idiot.0
-
I thought they used the Nation Builder platform.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."
http://nationbuilder.com
0 -
Labour can hold up in UK polls due to their London strength and a bit of dodgy weighting. Wales far more like provincial England. But who benefits. UKIP would be the obvious choice, but who knows.chestnut said:
Labour collapse.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/7499426201981501440 -
what's in their database? no personal information surely.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."0 -
Another overhyped poll......UKIP have to be on 40% in Wales to make up for their shit a f ground game to gain significant number of seats.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??0 -
I was amazed how young he is - he did come third last time.SimonStClare said:Still can’t believe Fox bothered to stand – the man’s an idiot.
0 -
It's the party members that are the issue, if you challenge Corbyn outright to a leadership race he probably still wins on the back of £3 voters. Labour are left in the pathetic position of hoping he will resign for the greater good. I also didn't realise Portillo had become a Labour constitutional expert.Jobabob said:
It's the bloody rules that are preventing the deposition, not the will!!
That all said, Portillo thinks that Corbyn will need nominations (which he won't get) – says the incumbency rule won't stand up in court because Corbyn doesn't have the support of the PLP.0 -
The text isToryJim said:BBC are running about a Vote Leave email that fails to thank Leadsom whilst thanking everyone else. Also refers to leadership election but mentions Gove and May but nobody else. Hmm.
"This campaign did not win because of support in Westminster - it won because of support in the country that has forced Westminster to listen. But three MPs in particular worked closely together and helped us win: Michael Gove (Conservative), Boris Johnson (Conservative), and Gisela Stuart (Labour) who was also a wonderful Chair. We want to thank all three of them too. They put their careers and reputations on the line. THANK YOU Boris, Gisela, and Michael. Thank you too to other MPs of all parties who helped, such as Anne-Marie Trevelyan and Graham Stringer."
0 -
In some other universe, Crabb might have my vote. But he will completely alienate the Leavers, and the right (who overlap), and the Tories won't pull together to face Corbyn or his successor as well.JohnO said:IIRC thus far, of all the Conservative members posting here, is Plato the only one to declare for Leadsom with May capturing literally every one else? Can't recall that Gove, Crabb and Fox have attracted any votes. It's a sign I tell you....
0 -
It's to get a cabinet job.SimonStClare said:Still can’t believe Fox bothered to stand – the man’s an idiot.
0 -
What do you think would happen if we tried that tactic? I don't believe this will be tolerated by the EU in terms of actually leaving (though it might get us better terms for exit).surbiton said:
Why don't we extend the "significant delay" to NEVER ?
Next question: how long does the remit of a referendum last even if it only advisory ? Surely not beyond the following general election ?
Think about it - we have just had a vote that confirms in the clearest possible terms that we are misfits in the EU project. I think that they realise by now that an amicable divorce is the best result for both sides and enables the EU to get rid of their British anchor.0 -
I think @TCPoliticalBetting is undecided and doesn't trust May to deliver on free movement.JohnO said:IIRC thus far, of all the Conservative members posting here, is Plato the only one to declare for Leadsom with May capturing literally every one else? Can't recall that Gove, Crabb and Fox have attracted any votes. It's a sign I tell you....
0 -
It won't be entirely accurate, could have me down as a "leave" voter because I entered their Euro competition maybe and I signed up for their propaganda by e-mailTheWhiteRabbit said:
what's in their database? no personal information surely.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..." 0 -
Given that they've just had an election and on the assumption that the FTPA is not repealed, what would they be polling for?AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/7499426201981501440 -
I don't see how this is contentious.Scott_P said:Is this why she pulled out of WATO?
@JohnRentoul: Leadsom used to be for Out to get a better In deal. Thanks to @LeyNathan for reminding me of this. https://t.co/9FfqDxwKfg
"“If Britain votes to leave the EU, we haven’t left: we start negotiations. That set of negotiations to leave may even be more fruitful than the negotiations before the referendum."
That's what everyone is saying TODAY.
0 -
Oh, I hadn't realised that TC was a member: had assumed, presumably incorrectly that she/he was a kipper.MaxPB said:
I think @TCPoliticalBetting is undecided and doesn't trust May to deliver on free movement.JohnO said:IIRC thus far, of all the Conservative members posting here, is Plato the only one to declare for Leadsom with May capturing literally every one else? Can't recall that Gove, Crabb and Fox have attracted any votes. It's a sign I tell you....
0 -
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-closet-and-cabinetTheScreamingEagles said:
It's to get a cabinet job.SimonStClare said:Still can’t believe Fox bothered to stand – the man’s an idiot.
They both mean (in my knowledge) a small room for storing something. But what is the difference? I have searched on google but did not find a clear answer.0 -
Get ready to be bombarded by Andrea Leadsom for leader emails then.Pulpstar said:
It won't be entirely accurate, could have me down as a "leave" voter because I entered their Euro competition maybe and I signed up for their propaganda by e-mailTheWhiteRabbit said:
what's in their database? no personal information surely.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."0 -
You should be able to ignore those three. Gove did the stabbing (never ends well) and has a charisma bypass and his leaked e mail by his wife ought to do for him. Fox had to resign and is a right wing fruitcake and as for, Crabb, who the hell is he?JohnO said:IIRC thus far, of all the Conservative members posting here, is Plato the only one to declare for Leadsom with May capturing literally every one else? Can't recall that Gove, Crabb and Fox have attracted any votes. It's a sign I tell you....
So its a May or Leadsom, the latter unknown, the former, a highly competent Home Secretary who handled the difficulties she faced with aplomb and further to her credit that there were so few issues in 6 yrs.
So Mrs May it is, it really is that simple IMHO , unless the Tories have brainfart.0 -
She said it as an argument for staying inanotherDave said:I don't see how this is contentious.
"“If Britain votes to leave the EU, we haven’t left: we start negotiations. That set of negotiations to leave may even be more fruitful than the negotiations before the referendum."
That's what everyone is saying TODAY.
Is she Remain's longest serving sleeper agent?0 -
That's only the code (i.e structure) not the data.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."
In other words you have a template for building your own database.0 -
It seems to me that the conditions in northern England and in Wales are similar to the ones in Scotland in 2014.Pulpstar said:
Labour can hold up in UK polls due to their London strength and a bit of dodgy weighting. Wales far more like provincial England. But who benefits. UKIP would be the obvious choice, but who knows.chestnut said:
Labour collapse.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Scotland 2010: Labour 42%
Scotland 2015: Labour 24%
They lost about 40% of their vote post referendum.
Labour are now 3rd in the UK polls among pensioners. 7% in today's ICM over 75s. 7%!! 3rd in Scotland.
The children of Beveridge. 7% back Labour.0 -
The bod at Vote Leave is Mr Gove's right hand man, isn't he?PlatoSaid said:
The text isToryJim said:BBC are running about a Vote Leave email that fails to thank Leadsom whilst thanking everyone else. Also refers to leadership election but mentions Gove and May but nobody else. Hmm.
"This campaign did not win because of support in Westminster - it won because of support in the country that has forced Westminster to listen. But three MPs in particular worked closely together and helped us win: Michael Gove (Conservative), Boris Johnson (Conservative), and Gisela Stuart (Labour) who was also a wonderful Chair. We want to thank all three of them too. They put their careers and reputations on the line. THANK YOU Boris, Gisela, and Michael. Thank you too to other MPs of all parties who helped, such as Anne-Marie Trevelyan and Graham Stringer."
0 -
That's all deleted.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what's in their database? no personal information surely.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."0 -
The thought of a frothing kipper in Leadsom becoming PM, without any Cabinet/Shadow Cabinet experience, fills me with horror.Jobabob said:So to summarise... A leader for hard times:
Gove – a gossipy backstabber who treats the UK like an Oxford debating society
Leadsom – a Platoite far right frother funded by Ukip who was a europhile until 2013
Crabb – a bible basher who thinks homosexuality is a disease that can be cured
Fox – Liam Fox, Fox, Fox
May – a teetotal 60-year-old lady with bags of experience who spends her holidays hill walking with her husband
Now let me think.
Gove has to be the other name on the ballot for the simple reason that if May fails for some reason, at least there is someone with a bit of experience and a degree of moderation at heart, who could probably have a stab at leading the country, even if he will most likely prove toxic and hand Labour's new leader the 2020 election on a plate. It would be like Labour foisting Brown on us, whereas Leadsom would be like Tony Blair being deposed post 1997 and replaced in 1998 with Dennis Skinner....0 -
What's left? Voter demographics?PlatoSaid said:
That's all deleted.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what's in their database? no personal information surely.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."
0 -
If they release that they are almost certainly breaking Data Protection law and would be liable to a very big fine. Euro-origin law admittedly.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what's in their database? no personal information surely.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."0 -
You can anonymise individuals and still hav their age, sex, VI etc etcTheWhiteRabbit said:
What's left? Voter demographics?PlatoSaid said:
That's all deleted.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what's in their database? no personal information surely.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."0 -
I'm sorry, but it's simply incorrect to say there are no trade deals between us and the United States. The US is a signatory to a number of treaties including the 1996 WIPO and 1995 GATS treaty that have specific provisions regarding trade between the EU/UK and the US. Furthermore there are specific treaties regarding defence that allow the UK (and some European countries) access to certain markets in the US that are not open to other countries.david_kendrick1 said:
We don't need trade deals deals with the rest of the world. We've never had a trade deal with the US. Over 1M Brits work for American companies, and over 1M Yanks work for Briish companies. Trade deals are vastly over-rated.Scott_P said:
Bollocksdavid_kendrick1 said:May explained that she was going to delegate the job of negotiating Brexit to a minister who backed Leave.
That on its own ought to disqualify her as PM material.
Those negotiations aren't just one of the jobs of the next PM They ought to be his prime focus---pretty much his only concern. It is absolutely key. This is personal to the PM. The harder, and better he works and achieves with our European friends, the better for all of us.
If the Brexiteers are right, we also need to be negotiating with all of the the other trading nations in the World.
Are they less important than the EU, in which case the case for leaving has a slight problem?
Trade deals are immaterial (except at the margin, with out-of-date restrictive groups like the EU). That is where the new PM should concentrate, and really only there because of recent history.0 -
"Database product" rather than database. "The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns"TheWhiteRabbit said:
what's in their database? no personal information surely.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."
I think this probably the smart phone app they wanted everyone to download. I didn't use it, but as I recall it enabled you to input canvassing data, and encouraged you to email friends and family.
http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/app
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why Wales voted for Brexitmatt said:
Given that they've just had an election and on the assumption that the FTPA is not repealed, what would they be polling for?AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/7499426201981501440 -
It sounds like they're offering the code not the data, which would be illegal.FF43 said:
If they release that they are almost certainly breaking Data Protection law and would be liable to a very big fine. Euro-origin law admittedly.TheWhiteRabbit said:
what's in their database? no personal information surely.PlatoSaid said:
VoteLeave are about to publish their whole database - for free. It's a huge resource.eek said:
Let's be honest. How many on here would be surprised by that...AlastairMeeks said:
At a wild guess, UKIP gaining dramatically at Labour's expense?Jobabob said:
It's hard to imagine what an 'exciting' Welsh poll looks like.AlastairMeeks said:Now here's a teaser:
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/749942620198150144
Plaid Cymru on 50%??
From their email
"We did new things. Nobody in the UK has ever successfully built a web-based electoral database. Companies have spent millions and failed. We did it in a few months and succeeded. The combination of this database, our digital communication effort and our ground campaign broke new ground for political campaigns. This database product is worth a lot of money. We will shortly put the code online so that everyone can use it for free in the future (keep an eye on Github if interested). Hopefully it will help other campaigns give the public a powerful voice as we have. We’ve shown political parties how they can change and stop ignoring large parts of the country.
Why is this important? The British political system is broken in many ways and needs big changes - the EU is not our only problem. Our campaign was never controlled by any party though there were great people from all parties who helped us. All the parties have very deep problems. The way they are structured incentivises MPs to focus on themselves and their party - not the public interest..."0 -
My possibly-faulty understanding: a closet goes from the floor, or near it, and can be walked into. A cabinet is off the floor and cannot be walked into.Pulpstar said:
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-closet-and-cabinetTheScreamingEagles said:
It's to get a cabinet job.SimonStClare said:Still can’t believe Fox bothered to stand – the man’s an idiot.
They both mean (in my knowledge) a small room for storing something. But what is the difference? I have searched on google but did not find a clear answer.0 -
Gove surely has to be value at 15/1 with Betfair. If he gets into the last three (and he almost certainly will) he's bound to come down to about half of that at least.0
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Codebase.TheWhiteRabbit said:
What's left? Voter demographics?0 -
Isnt that civil service only? Given you are neither civil not in service I can foresee an issueTheScreamingEagles said:
I've told Dave I don't want a peerage in his resignation honours. I've asked for a God Calls Me GodJohnO said:
TSE and I will be entering the House of Peers on the same day. You are invited to the ceremony.Tissue_Price said:
Are you talking about TSE or Mr Davis?JohnO said:
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM
Would you prefer a Bath or a Garter instead?0 -
He isn't but he takes an interest in the machinations of the party. I just thought it was worth mentioning.MaxPB said:
It's the party members that are the issue, if you challenge Corbyn outright to a leadership race he probably still wins on the back of £3 voters. Labour are left in the pathetic position of hoping he will resign for the greater good. I also didn't realise Portillo had become a Labour constitutional expert.Jobabob said:
It's the bloody rules that are preventing the deposition, not the will!!
That all said, Portillo thinks that Corbyn will need nominations (which he won't get) – says the incumbency rule won't stand up in court because Corbyn doesn't have the support of the PLP.0 -
Anyone who thinks the future of the Labour Party will be contested in court should be immediately ignored.Jobabob said:
He isn't but he takes an interest in the machinations of the party. I just thought it was worth mentioning.MaxPB said:
It's the party members that are the issue, if you challenge Corbyn outright to a leadership race he probably still wins on the back of £3 voters. Labour are left in the pathetic position of hoping he will resign for the greater good. I also didn't realise Portillo had become a Labour constitutional expert.Jobabob said:
It's the bloody rules that are preventing the deposition, not the will!!
That all said, Portillo thinks that Corbyn will need nominations (which he won't get) – says the incumbency rule won't stand up in court because Corbyn doesn't have the support of the PLP.0 -
I don't have any problems with his politics. But he's a total incompetent.SimonStClare said:Still can’t believe Fox bothered to stand – the man’s an idiot.
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Article 50 is a max of 2 years, not 2 yearsedmundintokyo said:
The problem is, when is it the last minute?MaxPB said:The idea that the EU isn't going to negotiate before we serve article 50 is stupid. We've already begun negotiating, the new PM will have the outline of a deal ready and then trigger article 50 and hammer out the details once that is done. Both sides will then claim to have got the best deal, there will be some last minute tension and at 11.59pm it will be done.
The EU isn't generally able to deal get anything seriously contentious done without an actual, proper crisis deadline, and it can't always do it even then. This sounds like it's going to be contentious, and there are going to be 28 governments that all need to go through the motions of getting the best possible deal.
With Article 50 it's easy: The deadline is 2 years after they invoke it. But it's hard to imagine basically getting the whole thing worked out then waiting 2 years before finalizing it, so what's going to make this actually happen if it isn't the Article 50 timetable?0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Worth mentioning Gove is Justice Secretary and was Education Secretary, and Fox was Defence Secretary.0 -
....as opposed to Tom Watson, who is the last person I want to talk to.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If you are in the closet, and it is lifted off the floor - are you then in the cabinet ?JosiasJessop said:
My possibly-faulty understanding: a closet goes from the floor, or near it, and can be walked into. A cabinet is off the floor and cannot be walked into.Pulpstar said:
https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-closet-and-cabinetTheScreamingEagles said:
It's to get a cabinet job.SimonStClare said:Still can’t believe Fox bothered to stand – the man’s an idiot.
They both mean (in my knowledge) a small room for storing something. But what is the difference? I have searched on google but did not find a clear answer.0 -
It was briefly the Purple Turtle I believe!TheWhiteRabbit said:
How times change.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/kingsleydc/status/249819350779981824
Our next PM potentially
It's just called "Cellar" now.0 -
I'm still not sure of the degree to which those 1990s agreements have been subsumed or substantially altered by the successive WTO rounds. Trying to understand the trade picture is pretty hard work. Mind you, it's interesting in a nerdy sort of way. Certainly feel the referendum has led me into some interesting nooks and crannies.rcs1000 said:
I'm sorry, but it's simply incorrect to say there are no trade deals between us and the United States. The US is a signatory to a number of treaties including the 1996 WIPO and 1995 GATS treaty that have specific provisions regarding trade between the EU/UK and the US. Furthermore there are specific treaties regarding defence that allow the UK (and some European countries) access to certain markets in the US that are not open to other countries.david_kendrick1 said:
We don't need trade deals deals with the rest of the world. We've never had a trade deal with the US. Over 1M Brits work for American companies, and over 1M Yanks work for Briish companies. Trade deals are vastly over-rated.Scott_P said:
Bollocksdavid_kendrick1 said:May explained that she was going to delegate the job of negotiating Brexit to a minister who backed Leave.
That on its own ought to disqualify her as PM material.
Those negotiations aren't just one of the jobs of the next PM They ought to be his prime focus---pretty much his only concern. It is absolutely key. This is personal to the PM. The harder, and better he works and achieves with our European friends, the better for all of us.
If the Brexiteers are right, we also need to be negotiating with all of the the other trading nations in the World.
Are they less important than the EU, in which case the case for leaving has a slight problem?
Trade deals are immaterial (except at the margin, with out-of-date restrictive groups like the EU). That is where the new PM should concentrate, and really only there because of recent history.0 -
SeanT said:TOPPING said:SeanT said:
Agree it should be May. Gove is unelectable, Fox ditto, Crabb is a gag, Leadsom has mad policies.
Relatedly, FPT for Philip T on A50
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"No, triggering it at once it's insane....... May is entirely right. Leadsom is utterly wrong."
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You keep saying this and it's bollox.
Leadsom repeated AGAIN @the launch this am : there is NO A50 timetable.
" she would not put a date on when the UK would begin official negotiations with the EU about exit, she said she wanted to proceed "with urgency" to give businesses certainty and aimed to keep the talks as short as possible."
Watch it yourself this evening: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07lfn8h0 -
Sure, but the deadline is at the end of 2 years, and the EU can't get anything done without a deadline.Charles said:
Article 50 is a max of 2 years, not 2 yearsedmundintokyo said:
The problem is, when is it the last minute?MaxPB said:The idea that the EU isn't going to negotiate before we serve article 50 is stupid. We've already begun negotiating, the new PM will have the outline of a deal ready and then trigger article 50 and hammer out the details once that is done. Both sides will then claim to have got the best deal, there will be some last minute tension and at 11.59pm it will be done.
The EU isn't generally able to deal get anything seriously contentious done without an actual, proper crisis deadline, and it can't always do it even then. This sounds like it's going to be contentious, and there are going to be 28 governments that all need to go through the motions of getting the best possible deal.
With Article 50 it's easy: The deadline is 2 years after they invoke it. But it's hard to imagine basically getting the whole thing worked out then waiting 2 years before finalizing it, so what's going to make this actually happen if it isn't the Article 50 timetable?0
