politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON leadership line-up is worryingly thin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CON leadership line-up is worryingly thin
Don’t you like farce? The Conservative party leadership election is dishing up plenty of it, and all of the blackest variety. Like horror movies, there are rules for Conservative party leadership elections:
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Thanks Alastair. Agree about the loathsome Leadsom0
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Jezza must stay
Britain Elects @britainelects 16m16 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 37% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 15% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-1)
(via ICM, online / 01 - 03 Jul)0 -
I think this is all immense fun to watch, and read about, and above all, politics should be fun.0
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Yet right now she is second favourite. One can only conclude that the Conservative party has completely taken leave of its senses.
One could also conclude that she is a clear lay at 5.0.0 -
For the first time in a while I agree with a Meeks thread.0
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How many of those complaining about Leadsom's lack of experience are doing so despite agreeing with her politics? And how many are doing so while completely disagreeing with her politics?
It seems a convenient hook to attack based on rather than an act of principle.0 -
Does Fox once being Defence Secretary not count as holding one of the great offices of state?
Edit: OK, CoE, Home and Foreign are the traditional ones, but still pushing the point a little.0 -
Agree.Tissue_Price said:Yet right now she is second favourite. One can only conclude that the Conservative party has completely taken leave of its senses.
One could also conclude that she is a clear lay at 5.0.0 -
I agree with her politics and votes to Leave. She is not the right candidate to take us forwards in turbulent times when the country is split down the middle. Ideological purity should make way for pragmatism.Philip_Thompson said:How many of those complaining about Leadsom's lack of experience are doing so despite agreeing with her politics? And how many are doing so while completely disagreeing with her politics?
It seems a convenient hook to attack based on rather than an act of principle.0 -
Whilst I am not doubting that I don't think Ms Leadsom should be the next PM, how do we know she's second favourite? Betting markets? Opinion polls? Because both have been so wonderfully accurate of late?0
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Doesn't the thread raise the question which other Tory MP who isn't standing, should be?
The field is of course a consequence of Osborne and Johnson having been put (or putting themselves) out of the running, and Hague Mark II not being realistic.0 -
We have a parliamentary democracy. Get over it.0
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Alastair did you think the same of Labour in 1997? What were you saying about Blair? Grumbling about his experience? You never know how someone will do in a top job until they do it. Gordon Brown was the most experienced psychopath we've ever had in No.10.0
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I thought the great office of state were Home, FCO, and the TreasuryJohnO said:Does Fox once being Defence Secretary not count as holding one of the great offices of state?
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(I've acknowledged this in my edit)TheScreamingEagles said:
I thought the great office of state were Home, FCO, and the TreasuryJohnO said:Does Fox once being Defence Secretary not count as holding one of the great offices of state?
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Kenny Clarke should throw his hat into the ring.0
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I think we're all repressing Liam Fox's time as Defence Secretary, especially its inglorious denouement.JohnO said:
(I've acknowledged this in my edit)TheScreamingEagles said:
I thought the great office of state were Home, FCO, and the TreasuryJohnO said:Does Fox once being Defence Secretary not count as holding one of the great offices of state?
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Some of you thought that this didn't exist:
"We’ve gained exclusive access to a leaked plan that was put together by the Vote Leave campaign, the UKIP, and Nigel Farage. It includes detailed solutions for the following political and economic issues expected after the United Kingdom departs the European Union."
http://thebrexitplan.com/0 -
What would be the Tory majority on this vote share?Scrapheap_as_was said:Jezza must stay
Britain Elects @britainelects 16m16 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 37% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 15% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-1)
(via ICM, online / 01 - 03 Jul)0 -
Slippery and slimy, like a few of the toads that have (dis)graced our TV screens recently.Tissue_Price said:Some of you thought that this didn't exist:
"We’ve gained exclusive access to a leaked plan that was put together by the Vote Leave campaign, the UKIP, and Nigel Farage. It includes detailed solutions for the following political and economic issues expected after the United Kingdom departs the European Union."
http://thebrexitplan.com/0 -
Blair was LOTO for three years before he became PM and he was shadow home secretary for two years before that. Compared to Leadsom he had vastly more experience, especially given that Labour hadn't been in power since 1979. He'd also been an MP for 11 years before becoming LOTO and 14 years before he became PM.Patrick said:Alastair did you think the same of Labour in 1997? What were you saying about Blair? Grumbling about his experience? You never know how someone will do in a top job until they do it. Gordon Brown was the most experienced psychopath we've ever had in No.10.
Leadsom has nowhere near the experience that Blair had when he became PM.0 -
Remember to add a couple for Tories and take a couple for labour.murali_s said:
What would be the Tory majority on this vote share?Scrapheap_as_was said:Jezza must stay
Britain Elects @britainelects 16m16 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 37% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 15% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-1)
(via ICM, online / 01 - 03 Jul)0 -
FPT
Seems fairly straightforward to end it (below taken from thelocal.fr)TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do the terms of the treaty say about ending it?Paristonda said:Alain Juppe says he will scrap the bilateral treaty regarding the Calais border. He kind of has to, as it's extremely unpopular in northern France, and pretty unpopular in the rest of France too.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-freedom-of-movement-eu-referendum-uk-france-border-french-presidential-election-alain-juppe-a7118511.html
What would be a reason for France to continue to honour this treaty?
According to professor Pierre-Yves Monjal, a public law specialist from the University of Tours, France does have the legal power to say stop.
“France could use article 56 of the Vienna Convention by applying the general EU rules (on terminating a treaty). But first we must look at whether the two countries took the initiative of including a 'termination' (denunciation) clause, which is certainly the case."
The last article of the treaty of Touquet grants the two signatory powers the option of ending the treaty “at any time”, simply by informing the other party in writing, via diplomatic channels. There would however be a two year delay before the change came into effect.
France also has powers to make changes to the treaty by a “simple exchange of notes” as well as taking the more drastic measure of employing its right to “take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security”.
If President François Hollande’s under-pressure government chose to make what would be a hugely controversial move, “everything would depend on the executive”, says Monjal.
“Parliament could be consulted but it is not mandatory. It would simply be enough if France announced to the UK that it was no longer willing to apply Le Touquet treaty,”0 -
That historical point isn't about to be overturned - May will win - maybe because of this. Tory members will look at the poor alternatives and choose May for that reason above all.
However the referendum has lead to a strange situation. The Chancellor would otherwise have been there. Also worth remembering that the trend for younger politicians in senior posts means that we are bound to have less experienced PMs.0 -
Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM0 -
Blair had been LOTO though (and a conspicuously effective one). That in itself is serious preparation. It's arguably the most difficult front bench job of all.Patrick said:Alastair did you think the same of Labour in 1997? What were you saying about Blair? Grumbling about his experience? You never know how someone will do in a top job until they do it. Gordon Brown was the most experienced psychopath we've ever had in No.10.
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On current boundaries, probably somewhere where we are now.murali_s said:
What would be the Tory majority on this vote share?Scrapheap_as_was said:Jezza must stay
Britain Elects @britainelects 16m16 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 37% (+1)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 15% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-1)
(via ICM, online / 01 - 03 Jul)0 -
FPT
No you're not locked out of all EU decisions, it is simply that in the exit negotiations the UK will negotiate with the EU-27 which makes perfect sense, we shouldn't be sat on both sides of the table in that conversation! For all other decisions we remain fully paid up members of the club until we leave.SeanT said:
No it's insane. Once you invoke it you are locked out of all EU decisions, lose all your leverage, and you just have to hurriedly plead your case, because a two year deadline is imposed, after which you're out, entirely, and into the WTO.Philip_Thompson said:Is implementing Article 50 immediately really the end of the world? Our EU partners have unanimously said they're not going to negotiate with us until after Article 50 is invoked and we should get on with it, so unless they're liars the new PM is going to have to invoke it sooner rather than later anyway.
If you think things are uncertain now, it will be ten times worse after A50 is triggered.
Also, during that two years (if we trigger now) there are French and German elections, which could change things entirely, so we might start negotiating with Hollande and end up negotiating with Sarkozy, ditto in Berlin.
This is a recipe for disaster, even if all sides have the best will in the world (which they don't).
As for being out and into the WTO that's the alternative no matter what. Either we are fully in the EU, we are able to negotiate a deal, or we are out - that is the same whether we've invoked the Article or not. Again if the EU-27 refuse to negotiate until we invoke Article 50 (as they've unanimously claimed they will) what are we supposed to do? Simply refuse to invoke, refuse to start negotiations? Because that is essentially just putting up the white flag and saying we are remaining afterall.
The uncertainty will only go away after a deal is reached. A deal can only be reached after Article 50 is invoked.
As Shakespeare wrote in Macbeth: If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well. It were done quickly.0 -
Mr Juppe is just floating lines for his presidential run.Paristonda said:FPT
Seems fairly straightforward to end it (below taken from thelocal.fr)TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do the terms of the treaty say about ending it?Paristonda said:Alain Juppe says he will scrap the bilateral treaty regarding the Calais border. He kind of has to, as it's extremely unpopular in northern France, and pretty unpopular in the rest of France too.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-freedom-of-movement-eu-referendum-uk-france-border-french-presidential-election-alain-juppe-a7118511.html
What would be a reason for France to continue to honour this treaty?
According to professor Pierre-Yves Monjal, a public law specialist from the University of Tours, France does have the legal power to say stop.
“France could use article 56 of the Vienna Convention by applying the general EU rules (on terminating a treaty). But first we must look at whether the two countries took the initiative of including a 'termination' (denunciation) clause, which is certainly the case."
The last article of the treaty of Touquet grants the two signatory powers the option of ending the treaty “at any time”, simply by informing the other party in writing, via diplomatic channels. There would however be a two year delay before the change came into effect.
France also has powers to make changes to the treaty by a “simple exchange of notes” as well as taking the more drastic measure of employing its right to “take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security”.
If President François Hollande’s under-pressure government chose to make what would be a hugely controversial move, “everything would depend on the executive”, says Monjal.
“Parliament could be consulted but it is not mandatory. It would simply be enough if France announced to the UK that it was no longer willing to apply Le Touquet treaty,”0 -
The questionI have is where does the power to declare article 50 lie and what did the Act specifically state.Philip_Thompson said:
Parliament has already had a vote. Parliament voted on the European Referendum Act 2015 and passed it with a majority.John_N4 said:b) Article 50 may only be invoked by the will of Parliament, because it would effectively repeal the European Communities Act 1972 or at least turn that Act into a dead letter, neither of which may be effected except by will of Parliament. To try to invoke it by royal prerogative would therefore be unlawful, and it would also be a breach of the spirit of both the Sewel convention and the Ponsonby rule.
Just because you don't like the result does not give justification to overturn it.
Most seem to be saying the government has the power to declare, but if it is the case that the power lies with parliament, did the Act transfer that power anywhere else? Since the referendum is not legally binding (although politically suicidal to try to prevent), that is fact, then if the power does lie with parliament they will need to vote upon it.
Remain or Leave, I don't see what the problem with a vote in parliament would be, assuming the legal authority does indeed lie there - ok, it may well be remainers who are pushing for it to cause problems, but if the power lies with parliament the parliament needs to vote, and I'm sure they would not dare risk thwarting the will of the people; they are far too scared to even ask for second referendum right now, and at least that would, if won, mean another democratic statement from the people.
If the legal power does not lie with parliament, then a vote might be politically sensible - as well as drawing a line between those accepting of the result and not - but not necessary.0 -
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM0 -
Give credit where its due. Sensible comment from Meeks.0
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So another part of "Project Fear" becomes reality...Paristonda said:FPT
Seems fairly straightforward to end it (below taken from thelocal.fr)TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do the terms of the treaty say about ending it?Paristonda said:Alain Juppe says he will scrap the bilateral treaty regarding the Calais border. He kind of has to, as it's extremely unpopular in northern France, and pretty unpopular in the rest of France too.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-freedom-of-movement-eu-referendum-uk-france-border-french-presidential-election-alain-juppe-a7118511.html
What would be a reason for France to continue to honour this treaty?
According to professor Pierre-Yves Monjal, a public law specialist from the University of Tours, France does have the legal power to say stop.
“France could use article 56 of the Vienna Convention by applying the general EU rules (on terminating a treaty). But first we must look at whether the two countries took the initiative of including a 'termination' (denunciation) clause, which is certainly the case."
The last article of the treaty of Touquet grants the two signatory powers the option of ending the treaty “at any time”, simply by informing the other party in writing, via diplomatic channels. There would however be a two year delay before the change came into effect.
France also has powers to make changes to the treaty by a “simple exchange of notes” as well as taking the more drastic measure of employing its right to “take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security”.
If President François Hollande’s under-pressure government chose to make what would be a hugely controversial move, “everything would depend on the executive”, says Monjal.
“Parliament could be consulted but it is not mandatory. It would simply be enough if France announced to the UK that it was no longer willing to apply Le Touquet treaty,”
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Lucy Fisher
As Labour civil war intensifies, Momentum has just said it's doubled its membership to 12k and is receiving small donations of £11k per day.0 -
@TimHarford: So if we all hold hands and say "I believe in Brexit, I do I do!" it will become a brilliant idea? Tinkerbell economics.0
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Davis does something mad every 3 months or so; no-one notices.JohnO said:
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM
Let's not forget he was the favourite going into the 2005 leadership contest!!0 -
Mr Meeks, a Lib Dem, sets out his view on the mistakes that Conservative party are making. ..... During the referendum Mr Meeks regularly wrote about all the mistakes that the LEAVE campaign were making and very rarely wrote articles about any mistakes being made by the REMAIN campaign. Funny how REMAIN LOST THE REFERENDUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So how about Mr Meeks, writing your view about Farron (remember him) wanting the LDs to stand on a "get us back in" commitment in their 2020 manifesto irrespective of what happens over the next 4 years? Is that a) wise, b) desperate or c) a hostage to future evenets0 -
The idea that the EU isn't going to negotiate before we serve article 50 is stupid. We've already begun negotiating, the new PM will have the outline of a deal ready and then trigger article 50 and hammer out the details once that is done. Both sides will then claim to have got the best deal, there will be some last minute tension and at 11.59pm it will be done.Philip_Thompson said:FPT
No you're not locked out of all EU decisions, it is simply that in the exit negotiations the UK will negotiate with the EU-27 which makes perfect sense, we shouldn't be sat on both sides of the table in that conversation! For all other decisions we remain fully paid up members of the club until we leave.SeanT said:
No it's insane. Once you invoke it you are locked out of all EU decisions, lose all your leverage, and you just have to hurriedly plead your case, because a two year deadline is imposed, after which you're out, entirely, and into the WTO.Philip_Thompson said:Is implementing Article 50 immediately really the end of the world? Our EU partners have unanimously said they're not going to negotiate with us until after Article 50 is invoked and we should get on with it, so unless they're liars the new PM is going to have to invoke it sooner rather than later anyway.
If you think things are uncertain now, it will be ten times worse after A50 is triggered.
Also, during that two years (if we trigger now) there are French and German elections, which could change things entirely, so we might start negotiating with Hollande and end up negotiating with Sarkozy, ditto in Berlin.
This is a recipe for disaster, even if all sides have the best will in the world (which they don't).
As for being out and into the WTO that's the alternative no matter what. Either we are fully in the EU, we are able to negotiate a deal, or we are out - that is the same whether we've invoked the Article or not. Again if the EU-27 refuse to negotiate until we invoke Article 50 (as they've unanimously claimed they will) what are we supposed to do? Simply refuse to invoke, refuse to start negotiations? Because that is essentially just putting up the white flag and saying we are remaining afterall.
The uncertainty will only go away after a deal is reached. A deal can only be reached after Article 50 is invoked.
As Shakespeare wrote in Macbeth: If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well. It were done quickly.0 -
If anything this article underplays the seriousness of the problem. Not only is the field thin but the need for an outstanding statesman is greater than at any time since the Second World War.0
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The only 'reality' from the french on this so far was the statement that nothing would change.not_on_fire said:
So another part of "Project Fear" becomes reality...Paristonda said:FPT
Seems fairly straightforward to end it (below taken from thelocal.fr)TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do the terms of the treaty say about ending it?Paristonda said:Alain Juppe says he will scrap the bilateral treaty regarding the Calais border. He kind of has to, as it's extremely unpopular in northern France, and pretty unpopular in the rest of France too.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-freedom-of-movement-eu-referendum-uk-france-border-french-presidential-election-alain-juppe-a7118511.html
What would be a reason for France to continue to honour this treaty?
According to professor Pierre-Yves Monjal, a public law specialist from the University of Tours, France does have the legal power to say stop.
“France could use article 56 of the Vienna Convention by applying the general EU rules (on terminating a treaty). But first we must look at whether the two countries took the initiative of including a 'termination' (denunciation) clause, which is certainly the case."
The last article of the treaty of Touquet grants the two signatory powers the option of ending the treaty “at any time”, simply by informing the other party in writing, via diplomatic channels. There would however be a two year delay before the change came into effect.
France also has powers to make changes to the treaty by a “simple exchange of notes” as well as taking the more drastic measure of employing its right to “take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security”.
If President François Hollande’s under-pressure government chose to make what would be a hugely controversial move, “everything would depend on the executive”, says Monjal.
“Parliament could be consulted but it is not mandatory. It would simply be enough if France announced to the UK that it was no longer willing to apply Le Touquet treaty,”
"Hollande said on Wednesday (29 June 2016) that Britain's Brexit vote should not change the France-UK deal"
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/francois-hollande-rejects-suspension-le-touquet-treaty-calais-despite-uk-brexit-15682330 -
Are you talking about TSE or Mr Davis?JohnO said:
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM
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Has Farage unresigned yet?Sean_F said:
I think this is all immense fun to watch, and read about, and above all, politics should be fun.
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TSE and I will be entering the House of Peers on the same day. You are invited to the ceremony.Tissue_Price said:
Are you talking about TSE or Mr Davis?JohnO said:
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM0 -
May explained that she was going to delegate the job of negotiating Brexit to a minister who backed Leave.
That on its own ought to disqualify her as PM material.
Those negotiations aren't just one of the jobs of the next PM They ought to be his prime focus---pretty much his only concern. It is absolutely key. This is personal to the PM. The harder, and better he works and achieves with our European friends, the better for all of us.0 -
I'm not a Lib Dem. I voted for Sadiq Khan in May. I voted for the Lib Dems at the 2015 election. I voted for Boris Johnson in 2012. And I voted Green in 2010.TCPoliticalBetting said:Mr Meeks, a Lib Dem, sets out his view on the mistakes that Conservative party are making. ..... During the referendum Mr Meeks regularly wrote about all the mistakes that the LEAVE campaign were making and very rarely wrote articles about any mistakes being made by the REMAIN campaign. Funny how REMAIN LOST THE REFERENDUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So how about Mr Meeks, writing your view about Farron (remember him) wanting the LDs to stand on a "get us back in" commitment in their 2020 manifesto irrespective of what happens over the next 4 years? Is that a) wise, b) desperate or c) a hostage to future evenets
I think that qualifies me as a floating voter.0 -
The PM is not a solo performer. HMG is a team effort.Wanderer said:If anything this article underplays the seriousness of the problem. Not only is the field thin but the need for an outstanding statesman is greater than at any time since the Second World War.
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But hold on...are you saying that if we don't trigger we will have a say and influence over the EU? The EU that shuts us out at every turn, outvotes us, and generally bullies us? But now in this golden pre-A50 period we will be important and influential?SeanT said:Agree it should be May. Gove is unelectable, Fox ditto, Crabb is a gag, Leadsom has mad policies.
Relatedly, FPT for Philip T on A50
No, triggering it at once it's insane. Once you invoke it you are locked out of all EU decisions, lose all your leverage, and you just have to hurriedly plead your case, because a two year deadline is imposed, after which you're out, entirely, and into the WTO.
If you think things are uncertain now, it will be ten times worse after A50 is triggered, if we have no informal agreement on the Single Market in place.
Also, during that two years (if we trigger now) there are French and German elections, which could change things entirely, so we might start negotiating with Hollande and end up negotiating with Sarkozy, ditto in Berlin.
This is a recipe for disaster, even if all sides have the best will in the world (which they don't).
Oh my aching sides.0 -
In response to the threader: we are where we are, as people annoyingly say, and the party is limited to having to choose one of the actual candidates. As far as Leadsom's lack of experience is concerned, everything is unprecedented until the first time it happens. If she were 25 years old I am sure you would rightly want to argue that we cannot have a 25 year old Prime Minister, but if you based your case on precedent you would run slap into the WPTY problem.
I don't understand when Boris said “I’ll be right back”, “Hello?” or “Who’s there?”0 -
Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.0
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Won't be fighting the 2020 election though (I had hoped he might have switched to the LDs for 2020 after the referendum - as it would be hilarious after 50 years as a Tory MP)DearPB said:
I'm half surprised he didn't! He's only 76 after all. Against the alternatives, I might have voted for him!!Jobabob said:Kenny Clarke should throw his hat into the ring.
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Bollocksdavid_kendrick1 said:May explained that she was going to delegate the job of negotiating Brexit to a minister who backed Leave.
That on its own ought to disqualify her as PM material.
Those negotiations aren't just one of the jobs of the next PM They ought to be his prime focus---pretty much his only concern. It is absolutely key. This is personal to the PM. The harder, and better he works and achieves with our European friends, the better for all of us.
If the Brexiteers are right, we also need to be negotiating with all of the the other trading nations in the World.
Are they less important than the EU, in which case the case for leaving has a slight problem?0 -
Jobabob said:
Kenny Clarke should throw his hat into the ring.
It's politically savvy to reach out as it may bring others in etc.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM0 -
I've told Dave I don't want a peerage in his resignation honours. I've asked for a God Calls Me GodJohnO said:
TSE and I will be entering the House of Peers on the same day. You are invited to the ceremony.Tissue_Price said:
Are you talking about TSE or Mr Davis?JohnO said:
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM0 -
It is only a thin field if you value experience in the second and third offices of state excessively. I think the Tories have a great line up. May is a serious heavy weight with years of experience at the Treasury. Gove is one of the great political intellects of our generation. Leadsom has wonderful communication skills and decades of experience at top businesses. Crabb is a rising star who has pulled himself up from a tough background. Fox is the only weak link due to the Verity mistake, but has also been coming across as very thoughtful recently.
Meanwhile Labour have a choice between Jeremy Corbyn and Angela Eagle. And the LibDems have Tim Farron.0 -
The problem is, when is it the last minute?MaxPB said:The idea that the EU isn't going to negotiate before we serve article 50 is stupid. We've already begun negotiating, the new PM will have the outline of a deal ready and then trigger article 50 and hammer out the details once that is done. Both sides will then claim to have got the best deal, there will be some last minute tension and at 11.59pm it will be done.
The EU isn't generally able to deal get anything seriously contentious done without an actual, proper crisis deadline, and it can't always do it even then. This sounds like it's going to be contentious, and there are going to be 28 governments that all need to go through the motions of getting the best possible deal.
With Article 50 it's easy: The deadline is 2 years after they invoke it. But it's hard to imagine basically getting the whole thing worked out then waiting 2 years before finalizing it, so what's going to make this actually happen if it isn't the Article 50 timetable?0 -
Well quite. Having seen May's track record over 6yrs - I really can't see much merit in it myself. Her MacCavity act during Remain campaign speaks volumes. She hides. And we've noticed.Patrick said:Alastair did you think the same of Labour in 1997? What were you saying about Blair? Grumbling about his experience? You never know how someone will do in a top job until they do it. Gordon Brown was the most experienced psychopath we've ever had in No.10.
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Around half of the Conservative party most certainly did take leave of its senses two weeks ago.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
And the betting markets did very very well for most of us here on PB over the course of June 23rd and early June 24th thank you very much. Won't hear a word against them.0 -
That was the conclusion I'd drawn, but it's very reassuring to hear you (and Tissue Price) back that up.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
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That would be handy, but we must make do with what we have and hope some show greater presence than we've seen to date. How many genuinely world class statesman even exist in the world?Wanderer said:If anything this article underplays the seriousness of the problem. Not only is the field thin but the need for an outstanding statesman is greater than at any time since the Second World War.
Obama? No, not at all, despite being leader of the most powerful country.
Putin? A troublesome leader with influence but not one to be statesmanlike.
Merkel? One of the better candidates, but recent years have shown her vaunted caution and judgement may well be simple dithering in some instances.
Ban Ki Moon? UN leaders are invisible, so if he's done anything worthwhile who would know.
0 -
2019 EU Parliament election?edmundintokyo said:
The problem is, when is it the last minute?MaxPB said:The idea that the EU isn't going to negotiate before we serve article 50 is stupid. We've already begun negotiating, the new PM will have the outline of a deal ready and then trigger article 50 and hammer out the details once that is done. Both sides will then claim to have got the best deal, there will be some last minute tension and at 11.59pm it will be done.
The EU isn't generally able to deal get anything seriously contentious done without an actual, proper crisis deadline, and it can't always do it even then. This sounds like it's going to be contentious, and there are going to be 28 governments that all need to go through the motions of getting the best possible deal.
With Article 50 it's easy: The deadline is 2 years after they invoke it. But it's hard to imagine basically getting the whole thing worked out then waiting 2 years before finalizing it, so what's going to make this actually happen if it isn't the Article 50 timetable?0 -
Why would that matter? If it's not done by then the UK can elect some MEPs who then leave once the deal is done; They've done it in the other direction for new accession countries.anotherDave said:
2019 EU Parliament election?edmundintokyo said:
The problem is, when is it the last minute?MaxPB said:The idea that the EU isn't going to negotiate before we serve article 50 is stupid. We've already begun negotiating, the new PM will have the outline of a deal ready and then trigger article 50 and hammer out the details once that is done. Both sides will then claim to have got the best deal, there will be some last minute tension and at 11.59pm it will be done.
The EU isn't generally able to deal get anything seriously contentious done without an actual, proper crisis deadline, and it can't always do it even then. This sounds like it's going to be contentious, and there are going to be 28 governments that all need to go through the motions of getting the best possible deal.
With Article 50 it's easy: The deadline is 2 years after they invoke it. But it's hard to imagine basically getting the whole thing worked out then waiting 2 years before finalizing it, so what's going to make this actually happen if it isn't the Article 50 timetable?0 -
How times change.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/kingsleydc/status/249819350779981824
Our next PM potentially
It's just called "Cellar" now.0 -
That's not a bar - Cameron wasn't going to. Take on this big job as a last service blah blahkle4 said:
Won't be fighting the 2020 election though (I had hoped he might have switched to the LDs for 2020 after the referendum - as it would be hilarious after 50 years as a Tory MP)DearPB said:
I'm half surprised he didn't! He's only 76 after all. Against the alternatives, I might have voted for him!!Jobabob said:Kenny Clarke should throw his hat into the ring.
0 -
I agree. They are very rare. We desperately need one and almost certainly don't have one.kle4 said:
That would be handy, but we must make do with what we have and hope some show greater presence than we've seen to date. How many genuinely world class statesman even exist in the world?Wanderer said:If anything this article underplays the seriousness of the problem. Not only is the field thin but the need for an outstanding statesman is greater than at any time since the Second World War.
Obama? No, not at all, despite being leader of the most powerful country.
Putin? A troublesome leader with influence but not one to be statesmanlike.
Merkel? One of the better candidates, but recent years have shown her vaunted caution and judgement may well be simple dithering in some instances.
Ban Ki Moon? UN leaders are invisible, so if he's done anything worthwhile who would know.0 -
I think some people are being very flippant in comparisons of inexperience that are being thrown around. I would feel more comfortable, in a weird way, if people just felt experience was unnecessary than some of the equating going on.0
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Would have been a strong candidate. Although his deep europhilia may not have gone down too well among the more hardcore leavers!!DearPB said:
I'm half surprised he didn't! He's only 76 after all. Against the alternatives, I might have voted for him!!Jobabob said:Kenny Clarke should throw his hat into the ring.
0 -
Yes Hollande has indeed said that, but in 2017 he will almost certainly lose and be replaced by either Juppe, Sarko, or Le Pen. Leaving the EU doesn't in reality change any circumstance on why they would scrap it, but it is unpopular, and it doesn't particularly bring any downsides to France either to get rid of it (they will likely have more migrants passing through, but that is offset by the fact that it no longer becomes their border problem). So hardly of grave consequence if they did scrap it.anotherDave said:
The only 'reality' from the french on this so far was the statement that nothing would change.not_on_fire said:
So another part of "Project Fear" becomes reality...
"Hollande said on Wednesday (29 June 2016) that Britain's Brexit vote should not change the France-UK deal"
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/francois-hollande-rejects-suspension-le-touquet-treaty-calais-despite-uk-brexit-1568233
It's low hanging populist fruit for the centre right. Most importantly, the FN will be campaigning HARD to repeal it - why would Juppe choose to die on that hill rather than just capitulate and scrap it?0 -
Sir Screaming Eagles - has a nice ring to it. But Baron Johnny of Hersham in the County of Surrey (coat of arms incorporating Anna Soubry as a razzled unicorn with its horn up...you know where/whom) is, if I may so, rather classier.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've told Dave I don't want a peerage in his resignation honours. I've asked for a God Calls Me GodJohnO said:
TSE and I will be entering the House of Peers on the same day. You are invited to the ceremony.Tissue_Price said:
Are you talking about TSE or Mr Davis?JohnO said:
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM0 -
How is that reality? France could invoke an article in the treaty is news how exactly? That was said at the time.not_on_fire said:
So another part of "Project Fear" becomes reality...Paristonda said:FPT
Seems fairly straightforward to end it (below taken from thelocal.fr)TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do the terms of the treaty say about ending it?Paristonda said:Alain Juppe says he will scrap the bilateral treaty regarding the Calais border. He kind of has to, as it's extremely unpopular in northern France, and pretty unpopular in the rest of France too.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-freedom-of-movement-eu-referendum-uk-france-border-french-presidential-election-alain-juppe-a7118511.html
What would be a reason for France to continue to honour this treaty?
According to professor Pierre-Yves Monjal, a public law specialist from the University of Tours, France does have the legal power to say stop.
“France could use article 56 of the Vienna Convention by applying the general EU rules (on terminating a treaty). But first we must look at whether the two countries took the initiative of including a 'termination' (denunciation) clause, which is certainly the case."
The last article of the treaty of Touquet grants the two signatory powers the option of ending the treaty “at any time”, simply by informing the other party in writing, via diplomatic channels. There would however be a two year delay before the change came into effect.
France also has powers to make changes to the treaty by a “simple exchange of notes” as well as taking the more drastic measure of employing its right to “take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security”.
If President François Hollande’s under-pressure government chose to make what would be a hugely controversial move, “everything would depend on the executive”, says Monjal.
“Parliament could be consulted but it is not mandatory. It would simply be enough if France announced to the UK that it was no longer willing to apply Le Touquet treaty,”
If France announced it IS invoking that clause then that would be "becomes reality".0 -
Yes, but even there it's hope not faith imo. She's likely to be an adequate Prime Minister (more than can be said of any of the others) but we need more than that.Pulpstar said:
May is the only one who remotely fits the bill.Wanderer said:If anything this article underplays the seriousness of the problem. Not only is the field thin but the need for an outstanding statesman is greater than at any time since the Second World War.
0 -
And, extending that point, what is going to happen is an initial set of rounds in which Theresa May gets the overwhelming support of Conservative MPs, and a final round in which she gets the overwhelming support of party members. Far from being a divisive contest, it is turning into a unifying one.
(And a profitable one!)0 -
Juppe isn't even a shoo-in to get his party's nomination. The official French line is that the agreement stands.anotherDave said:
The only 'reality' from the french on this so far was the statement that nothing would change.not_on_fire said:
So another part of "Project Fear" becomes reality...Paristonda said:FPT
Seems fairly straightforward to end it (below taken from thelocal.fr)TheWhiteRabbit said:
What do the terms of the treaty say about ending it?Paristonda said:Alain Juppe says he will scrap the bilateral treaty regarding the Calais border. He kind of has to, as it's extremely unpopular in northern France, and pretty unpopular in the rest of France too.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-freedom-of-movement-eu-referendum-uk-france-border-french-presidential-election-alain-juppe-a7118511.html
What would be a reason for France to continue to honour this treaty?
According to professor Pierre-Yves Monjal, a public law specialist from the University of Tours, France does have the legal power to say stop.
“France could use article 56 of the Vienna Convention by applying the general EU rules (on terminating a treaty). But first we must look at whether the two countries took the initiative of including a 'termination' (denunciation) clause, which is certainly the case."
The last article of the treaty of Touquet grants the two signatory powers the option of ending the treaty “at any time”, simply by informing the other party in writing, via diplomatic channels. There would however be a two year delay before the change came into effect.
France also has powers to make changes to the treaty by a “simple exchange of notes” as well as taking the more drastic measure of employing its right to “take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security”.
If President François Hollande’s under-pressure government chose to make what would be a hugely controversial move, “everything would depend on the executive”, says Monjal.
“Parliament could be consulted but it is not mandatory. It would simply be enough if France announced to the UK that it was no longer willing to apply Le Touquet treaty,”
"Hollande said on Wednesday (29 June 2016) that Britain's Brexit vote should not change the France-UK deal"
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/francois-hollande-rejects-suspension-le-touquet-treaty-calais-despite-uk-brexit-1568233
We've got some pretty potent ammunition of our own if the French want to get into a pissing match. I don't think they do - it's just dog whistling to the French right.0 -
We don't need trade deals deals with the rest of the world. We've never had a trade deal with the US. Over 1M Brits work for American companies, and over 1M Yanks work for Briish companies. Trade deals are vastly over-rated.Scott_P said:
Bollocksdavid_kendrick1 said:May explained that she was going to delegate the job of negotiating Brexit to a minister who backed Leave.
That on its own ought to disqualify her as PM material.
Those negotiations aren't just one of the jobs of the next PM They ought to be his prime focus---pretty much his only concern. It is absolutely key. This is personal to the PM. The harder, and better he works and achieves with our European friends, the better for all of us.
If the Brexiteers are right, we also need to be negotiating with all of the the other trading nations in the World.
Are they less important than the EU, in which case the case for leaving has a slight problem?
Trade deals are immaterial (except at the margin, with out-of-date restrictive groups like the EU). That is where the new PM should concentrate, and really only there because of recent history.0 -
Dave do it. Make your last act as PM ennobling the great JohnO.JohnO said:
Sir Screaming Eagles - has a nice ring to it. But Baron Johnny of Hersham in the County of Surrey (coat of arms incorporating Anna Soubry as a razzled unicorn with its horn up...you know where/whom) is, if I may so, rather classier.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've told Dave I don't want a peerage in his resignation honours. I've asked for a God Calls Me GodJohnO said:
TSE and I will be entering the House of Peers on the same day. You are invited to the ceremony.Tissue_Price said:
Are you talking about TSE or Mr Davis?JohnO said:
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM
I'll give up my Knighthood.0 -
Oh look, Alastair suddenly cares about the country again. Amazing how the spittle-flecked tantrum can subside in favour of the mantle of statesmanship descending upon him again when the occasion demands.0
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Experience is a hard thing to judge and measure - and increasingly not rated highly in other walks of life.kle4 said:I think some people are being very flippant in comparisons of inexperience that are being thrown around. I would feel more comfortable, in a weird way, if people just felt experience was unnecessary than some of the equating going on.
What this does show is that politics doesn't really attract the best and the brightest anymore. And why would it - we treat politicians like dirt, pay them nothing, and assume they're all in it for themselves. We get what we deserve.0 -
Could not agree more. Theresa May is the only serious candidate.0
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Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
0 -
The last dance of the sane wing of the Conservative party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave do it. Make your last act as PM ennobling the great JohnO.JohnO said:
Sir Screaming Eagles - has a nice ring to it. But Baron Johnny of Hersham in the County of Surrey (coat of arms incorporating Anna Soubry as a razzled unicorn with its horn up...you know where/whom) is, if I may so, rather classier.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've told Dave I don't want a peerage in his resignation honours. I've asked for a God Calls Me GodJohnO said:
TSE and I will be entering the House of Peers on the same day. You are invited to the ceremony.Tissue_Price said:
Are you talking about TSE or Mr Davis?JohnO said:
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM
I'll give up my Knighthood.
Farewell Yorrick..0 -
Thatcher was a shrill housewife who said there would never be a female leader in her lifetime. She was laughed at at the dispatch box. Cometh the hour, cometh the woman.0
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The Tory Party (for all last weeks sub-Game of Thrones stuff (not that I've ever seen it)) is coming together. Very few remainers were enthusiastic remainers, so it's easy to reconcile oneself; as evidenced by Osborne telling people to stop moping around and get on with it.Richard_Nabavi said:And, extending that point, what is going to happen is an initial set of rounds in which Theresa May gets the overwhelming support of Conservative MPs, and a final round in which she gets the overwhelming support of party members. Far from being a divisive contest, it is turning into a unifying one.
(And a profitable one!)
May is the only grown up running. But it's hard to imagine being a fervent May supporter - she's the only plausible choice.0 -
CLP nominations for Labour NEC - Members representatives (6 to be elected, in First 6 Past the Post)
GA=Centre-Left Grassroots Alliance (some would say they can drop the "centre" bit)
LF= Labour First
Labour First, Progress and Baxter were usually recommended together as the "moderate"/"right" (depending on who was referring to them) slate.
Ann Black (GA) 301
Christine Shawcroft (GA) 189
Pete Willsman (GA) 164
Ellie Reeves (LF) 149
Claudia Webbe (GA) 145
Darren Williams (GA) 144
Bex Bailey (PROG) 132
Rhea Wolfson (GA) 130
Johanna Baxter (Ind) 123
Luke Akehurst (LF) 107
Parmjit Dhanda (PROG) 105
Eddie Izzard (Ind) 91
Peter Wheeler (LF) 87
John Gallagher (Ind) 25
Amanat Gul (Ind) 4
0 -
Compared to 2014 elections
GA 1073 (+321 compared to 2014)
Lab First+Progress+Baxter 703 (+107)
Candidates in both 2016 and 2014
Black +81
Shawcroft +76
Williams +68
Willsman +48
Reeves +34
Akehurst +13
Wheeler -5
Baxter -39
0 -
On topic, I see why there should be a correlation between experience and being good at the job but looking at examples of actual national leaders, I don't think there is.0
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I commented on the last thread that we won't really know where the also-rans stand until tomorrow - it could still be any one of the other 4 (apart from Fox obviously)MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
0 -
We're the provisional wing of continuinty Cameroon armyPulpstar said:
The last dance of the sane wing of the Conservative party.TheScreamingEagles said:
Dave do it. Make your last act as PM ennobling the great JohnO.JohnO said:
Sir Screaming Eagles - has a nice ring to it. But Baron Johnny of Hersham in the County of Surrey (coat of arms incorporating Anna Soubry as a razzled unicorn with its horn up...you know where/whom) is, if I may so, rather classier.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've told Dave I don't want a peerage in his resignation honours. I've asked for a God Calls Me GodJohnO said:
TSE and I will be entering the House of Peers on the same day. You are invited to the ceremony.Tissue_Price said:
Are you talking about TSE or Mr Davis?JohnO said:
Most disagreeable. Beware Theresa, he'll do a Gove on you within 3 months: he just can't help himself.TheScreamingEagles said:Ugh. I might have to reevaluate my support for Theresa May.
@TheresaMay2016: I'm delighted to have the support of @DavidDavisMP for my campaign to provide the strong, united leadership our country needs. Thank you -TM
I'll give up my Knighthood.
Farewell Yorrick..
We haven't gone away you know.0 -
Well, I watched Leadsom's whole press conf and thought she was excellent - and handled tricky stuff with aplomb and good humour.
The room laughed with her twice.
I'm feeling pretty confident about her.0 -
That's an excellent point. Our #1 export market is the US. China is #5 on our import list. No hablo FTAs with either. The US has a grand total of 20 FTAs.david_kendrick1 said:
We don't need trade deals deals with the rest of the world. We've never had a trade deal with the US. Over 1M Brits work for American companies, and over 1M Yanks work for Briish companies. Trade deals are vastly over-rated.Scott_P said:
Bollocksdavid_kendrick1 said:May explained that she was going to delegate the job of negotiating Brexit to a minister who backed Leave.
That on its own ought to disqualify her as PM material.
Those negotiations aren't just one of the jobs of the next PM They ought to be his prime focus---pretty much his only concern. It is absolutely key. This is personal to the PM. The harder, and better he works and achieves with our European friends, the better for all of us.
If the Brexiteers are right, we also need to be negotiating with all of the the other trading nations in the World.
Are they less important than the EU, in which case the case for leaving has a slight problem?
Trade deals are immaterial (except at the margin, with out-of-date restrictive groups like the EU). That is where the new PM should concentrate, and really only there because of recent history.
If there were no EU, we'd probably want to do trade deals with 9 or 10 of the EU27, tops.
I'm not saying they don't matter, of course. It'd take a lot of spade work to figure out what the UK's economic priorities should be. More than I'm prepared to do, unpaid
.
0 -
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of her predecessors had failed to solve).0 -
@PeterMannionMP: Some well-briefed members of audience laughing there, just *before* the punchline :-/PlatoSaid said:
The room laughed with her twice.
#andrealeadsom #toryleadership0 -
The noises coming from the EU side are contradictory. On the one hand they want to move on, and try to sort themselves out now the UK is out of the picture. So get Article 50 and the negotiations over with as quickly as possible. On the other hand they want as little to change as possible. So ignore the UK entirely and don't be upset if it never actually leaves.
In some cases it's the same people holding these opposite views, neither of which is particularly helpful to the UK interest.0 -
Also out with friends (all active party members) on Friday and overwhelmingly for May and I was the only Remainer too. She's going to win big.Richard_Nabavi said:
I was at a do on Friday where there were lots of ordinary members. Unsurprisingly the leadership contest was a big topic of conversation. There were a few Leadsom supporters, but the vast majority were going to vote for May, irrespective of how they voted in the referendum. Not a single one mentioned any other contender, except to express disdain for Gove and for Stephen Crabb's arrangement of his facial hair.MaxPB said:
Yes, I haven't seen much appetite for Leadsom to be PM beyond a few internet commenters, most of whom aren't eligible.Richard_Nabavi said:Alastair, uncharacteristially, is making a big logical mistake. The Conservative party hasn't taken leave of its senses. The betting markets have.
One interesting point that was made was that Theresa May actually has a very good record of patient international negotiation, for example with the French over the Calais jungle, and with the Jordanians over Abu Qatada (a problem which several of here predecessors had failed to solve).0
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