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SystemSystem Posts: 12,678
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huge YouGov boost for Theresa May on the night before nominations close

Let us lust remind ourselves how the CON leadership election works. There will be a series of secret ballot of MPs until they get down to a final two – then the choice will be made by party members in a postal ballot.

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,729
    edited June 2016
    First like Theresa
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,729
    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    If I'd heard May's speech before the referendum, I might very well have changed my mind. It was extremely cogent and well argued. Even better, it had actual crunchy numbers. I guess Remain thought it was more effective to keep calling me a racist Little Englander.

    She made a very interesting point that I've not seen made elsewhere. With Brexit, the free trade faction of the EU won't have the 35% blocking threshold that it has with us as a member.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Great insight from the bunker from Nick Watt.

    Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.

    The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    Newsnight: "Corbyn is a broken man."
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Fifth like Crabbid.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May

    If she gets on the ballot, I think she wins.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,377
    If Boris could do the Brexit Ref again, I wonder what he'd do differently.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    Oh, and I'd back Theresa too (and I was a rabid Leaver).
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Boris Johnson and Theresa May aim to cut migration and stay in single market

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/working-eu-uk-free-movement-permit-easy-entry-migrants-jobs-automatic-rights-?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May


    And PBers generally (less a betting tip, but perhaps an indicator of mood)
  • OnceEvery3yearsPBCOnceEvery3yearsPBC Posts: 3
    If May becomes PM she will be a lazy authoritarian beholden to Dacre and that is a dreadful thought. Also her or crabb seem to be back to basics style tories and if they are, however rosy (comparatively) it looks for the conservative party right now that is certainly not what the country wants.

    On the labour side, interesting times, if corbyn survives and purges the labour party (Creepy Tom watson was looking decidely sheepish now the plot has failed-ish) then no one can accuse him of lacking leadership or guts. All he needs is a young protege in the wings and slightly moderated policies (bear in mind that the world is becoming more and more unequal and therefore heading to the left) and i would not right off his chances in 2020 (and i think it will be then as any earlier will look like cynical opportunism and be punished)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,915
    Stark_Dawning said:

    If Boris could do the Brexit Ref again, I wonder what he'd do differently.

    Lose it. Just. That was his objective.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    KentRising said:

    Newsnight: "Corbyn is a broken man."

    Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    The ConHome reader survey had Johnson/May tied.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/our-next-tory-leader-survey-finds-may-leading-johnson-by-just-ten-votes-in-well-over-a-thousand.html
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    @SeanT FPT

    His career might be over if he doesn't win it, do you think? Or hyperbole?
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Jobabob said:

    Great insight from the bunker from Nick Watt.

    Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.

    The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.

    Is there time though?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    I am a Tory member and was going to vote for Boris but now feel that I have to vote for May as Boris will be too divisive in what has become a very fractured nation.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    KentRising said:

    Oh, and I'd back Theresa too (and I was a rabid Leaver).

    Rabies eventually destroys the brain. You may have reached the final stages. :(

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,915
    I'm away to bed, but a final thought: too much writing off of Boris. Early days. Many twists to come.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    OnceEvery3yearsPBC said:

    If May becomes PM she will be a lazy authoritarian beholden to Dacre and that is a dreadful thought. Also her or crabb seem to be back to basics style tories and if they are, however rosy (comparatively) it looks for the conservative party right now that is certainly not what the country wants.

    On the labour side, interesting times, if corbyn survives and purges the labour party (Creepy Tom watson was looking decidely sheepish now the plot has failed-ish) then no one can accuse him of lacking leadership or guts. All he needs is a young protege in the wings and slightly moderated policies (bear in mind that the world is becoming more and more unequal and therefore heading to the left) and i would not right off his chances in 2020 (and i think it will be then as any earlier will look like cynical opportunism and be punished)

    Bonkers.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,029
    The £350m may well turn out to be Boris' albatross. A Pyrrhic victory for him: won the referendum and lost the leadership.

    We need to start seeing more MP declarations though. I think the last I heard was May could count on around 70-80 and Boris 100. May needs a few more converts to be guaranteed a spot in the final ballot. Polls like this will help though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Has Andrea Leadsom announced yet? She's a far better choice than Theresa May IMO.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    CornishBlue said:

    I am a Tory member and was going to vote for Boris but now feel that I have to vote for May as Boris will be too divisive in what has become a very fractured nation.

    We need May for the 48%, I feel. We mustn't forget them (not that it's likely given all the squawking ;) ).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,729
    anotherDave said:

    The ConHome reader survey had Johnson/May tied.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/our-next-tory-leader-survey-finds-may-leading-johnson-by-just-ten-votes-in-well-over-a-thousand.html

    Voodoo poll
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,721
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May

    I'd trust her more.

    I've said this a lot, and my fellow leavers don't like it, but in a scenario where the PM had backed leave, there is absolutely no chance that Boris would be on any side other than remain.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Stark_Dawning said:

    If Boris could do the Brexit Ref again, I wonder what he'd do differently.

    He would back Remain. It would depend on which newspaper article he publishes and whether he was tired or not !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,721
    CornishBlue said:

    I am a Tory member and was going to vote for Boris but now feel that I have to vote for May as Boris will be too divisive in what has become a very fractured nation.

    Also remember that PM Boris would have to deliver the bullshit leave manifesto, PM Theresa could appoint Boris to fail at it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DavidPBMaddox: Have heard a dark horse for Labour leadership is @IanMurrayMP. Popular in PLP and passionate about leftwing politics including antiTrident
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    John_M said:

    CornishBlue said:

    I am a Tory member and was going to vote for Boris but now feel that I have to vote for May as Boris will be too divisive in what has become a very fractured nation.

    We need May for the 48%, I feel. We mustn't forget them (not that it's likely given all the squawking ;) ).
    I'm a Leaver but always wanted an EFTA/EEA membership for the UK. So things are working out pretty well. ;)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Has Andrea Leadsom announced yet? She's a far better choice than May IMO.

    That's not clear. She had an article in the Times the other day. Guido says she has 60 MPs (she headed up the Fresh Start Group in the HoC), and is angling on trading her support for the Chancellor gig.

    https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom

    http://order-order.com/2016/06/29/gove-chief-negotiator-boris-leadsom-summit-priti-rumours/


  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    rottenborough said:

    I'm away to bed, but a final thought: too much writing off of Boris. Early days. Many twists to come.

    Quite. Few punters ever made money writing off Boris....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,729
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May

    I'd trust her more.

    I've said this a lot, and my fellow leavers don't like it, but in a scenario where the PM had backed leave, there is absolutely no chance that Boris would be on any side other than remain.
    That Casino is not backing Boris tells you a lot.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Jobabob said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May


    And PBers generally (less a betting tip, but perhaps an indicator of mood)
    Richard Nabavi & I - on opposite sides in the referendum - were both tipping her around 10/1 a few months back.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So May becomes PM, makes Boris Minister for Brexit (he can't turn it down), but she needs a chancellor.

    Someone who can calm the markets. Someone with experience. Someone who knows where the bodies are buried.

    Yes, step forward, George Osborne...
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    AndyJS said:

    Has Andrea Leadsom announced yet? She's a far better choice than Theresa May IMO.

    Leadsom was in both debates. She'd be as toxic as Boris in six months.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Scousers are definitely the wittiest people...

    McDonnell compares the Parliamentary Labour Party to “a lynch mob without a rope”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-resignation-news-latest-john-mcdonnell-compares-parliamentary-labour-party-to-lynch-a7110076.html
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MaxPB said:

    CornishBlue said:

    I am a Tory member and was going to vote for Boris but now feel that I have to vote for May as Boris will be too divisive in what has become a very fractured nation.

    Also remember that PM Boris would have to deliver the bullshit leave manifesto, PM Theresa could appoint Boris to fail at it.
    Much as some people would love to see him come a cropper, I think it'd be better for the country to appoint someone who's not a flibbertigibbet.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    anotherDave said:

    The ConHome reader survey had Johnson/May tied.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/our-next-tory-leader-survey-finds-may-leading-johnson-by-just-ten-votes-in-well-over-a-thousand.html

    Voodoo poll
    They claim to have a good track record in Con leadership contests. This must be a very difficult electorate to poll.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,721
    AndyJS said:

    Has Andrea Leadsom announced yet? She's a far better choice than Theresa May IMO.

    I don't think now is time for a novice, to borrow a line from Brown. We need a ready made PM, it has to be one of Boris or Theresa. This leadership election has come two years too early for Leadsom. Also, I wouldn't trust her to keep us in the single market, similar Gove I think she really does want to remove us from the single market to gain immigration control.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    YellowSubmarine said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has Andrea Leadsom announced yet? She's a far better choice than Theresa May IMO.

    Leadsom was in both debates. She'd be as toxic as Boris in six months.
    You do know Leave won the Referendum, right?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May

    PB Tories have been right in the last few elections. Very in touch with the people.
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    Like I said in the last thread, I asked 89 of "The Great and the Good" today at the Royal Norfolk Show, highlight of the social calendar here in Norfolk, how they would vote in a forced choice between May and Johnson. This included an even mix of remainers and leavers.

    Remarkably, 87 broke for Theresa May. Of the two that chose Johnson, the second said they'd change their mind when I told them who the other person backing Boris was.
    Has he become that toxic already to those in the sticks?

    So the poll of party members is no surprise based on my straw poll.... except to say that I wonder whether it's actually OVERstating Boris's support.

    I was also told by a Parliamentarian that a bombshell revelation with 'news from Scotland' is due, which might explain the change in tone amongst some of the broadsheets, who now seem much more open minded to the TM4PM message. :Cryptic:

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Scott_P said:

    So May becomes PM, makes Boris Minister for Brexit (he can't turn it down), but she needs a chancellor.

    Someone who can calm the markets. Someone with experience. Someone who knows where the bodies are buried.

    Yes, step forward, George Osborne...

    I can see Osborne as Chancellor... it's his punishment - he can't leave the Treasury until that surplus comes about... hahahaha
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,721
    Scott_P said:

    So May becomes PM, makes Boris Minister for Brexit (he can't turn it down), but she needs a chancellor.

    Someone who can calm the markets. Someone with experience. Someone who knows where the bodies are buried.

    Yes, step forward, George Osborne...

    More likely to be Leadsom, she may need Leadsom's MPs to make the final round.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    edited June 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Great insight from the bunker from Nick Watt.

    Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.

    The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.

    Sounds like his family might step in and call this off.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Tissue_Price said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May


    And PBers generally (less a betting tip, but perhaps an indicator of mood)
    Richard Nabavi & I - on opposite sides in the referendum - were both tipping her around 10/1 a few months back.
    Only last month, but I think she is definitely the favourite - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/05/11/guest-post-summer-2016-might-lead-to-a-generational-shift-in-the-two-main-parties/

    'but it is hard to look beyond May at the still generous 8/1 in the same market.'
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    CornishBlue said:

    I am a Tory member and was going to vote for Boris but now feel that I have to vote for May as Boris will be too divisive in what has become a very fractured nation.

    That's my thinking. Boris is too divisive: we need a more neutral - yet hardened - figure.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    Wow, it also reads like a list of people easy to ignore on most issues....
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    FPT
    nunu said:

    anotherDave said:

    nunu said:

    anotherDave said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Paristonda said:

    slightly off topic. - I was thinking about the pre referendum predictions on turnout - the consensus seemed to be sub-60% meant leave, 60-75% meant remain, and above 75% meant leave. I don't think anyone was saying leave on 72% turnout - any theories on why we saw decently but not massively elevated turnout from GE yet a leave vote?

    The highest increases came from council estates, in Scotland where the debate was one sided turnout was similar to GE, I.e. middle class more likely to turnout.
    The turnout of pensioners was at a record high, the turnout of working class voters in safe seats rose more than was expected, the turnout of younger voters esp 18-24 appears to have been below 50%. Turnout in Scotland and London was good, but not as good as most of the English provinces. Thus turnout rose, but not evenly.
    Some good turnouts in Berkshire.

    Wokingham 80%, W.Berkshire 80%, Bracknell 76%, Reading 72%

    http://www.getreading.co.uk/news/reading-berkshire-news/eu-referendum-result-reading-wokingham-11518563

    -----------

    Mr Elliot of the Vote Leave team said they had 30,000 activists, and they wanted to be involved. Not what I saw in my patch, but who knows.

    https://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/how-leave-beat-back-a-u-s-consultant-led-effort-to-remain-in-the-eu
    We wanted to be involved but obviously had no data so hard to target our voters.
    We got some addresses to target in the last week. These looked more like market research targeting than registered/canvassed supporters.
    If we had ukip data we might have had an even better vote share, but then again Nigel Garage is toxic for most voters so swings and roundabouts really
    Also its questionable how good ukips data is as they always fail on the ground game anyway.
    I don't know if its significant, but I noticed Vote Leave were using the same platform as UKIP (Nation Builder)

    http://nationbuilder.com
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Tissue_Price said:

    Jobabob said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It is interesting that PBers who have a vote in this election are overwhelmingly breaking for Mrs May


    And PBers generally (less a betting tip, but perhaps an indicator of mood)
    Richard Nabavi & I - on opposite sides in the referendum - were both tipping her around 10/1 a few months back.
    And as I said the other day Richard Wilson is clear that May is by far the best choice
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    All this Tory poll means is LEAVERS will look for a stronger candidate than Johnson...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,729
    MyBurningEars said:

    Has anybody senior in the Conservative party considered changing the leadership contest rules, so that the membership only get a vote in certain circumstances, and otherwise MPs just have a ballot on the final two?

    It can be a real downer for the country, as we are seeing now, when there is a leadership vacuum while the Tories are governing the country, so a simple "membership vote in opposition, MP vote in power" would make sense. It was eminently foreseeable that sitting PMs are quite likely to be toppled during some sort of crisis, and a lame duck or temporary PM can then be very damaging. (Since such crises might involve lack of confidence in the PM from backbenchers, it would make particular sense in this scenario to ensure that the new leader has majority support from MPs, not just "scraped into the final two" levels of support.)

    I appreciate that there are some other scenarios e.g. "orderly handing over of the reins of power" where a membership vote might make sense even while in government, so perhaps a more sophisticated rule change might be in order, but I am surprised I haven't seen serious discontent at the current rules. (Must be some furious Tories watching Sturgeon strutting about and thinking "she owns the stage until September - can't my party get a move on?")

    It has been considered, never implemented.

    There's talk of weighting the votes into an electoral college of both MPs and members.

    They want to avoid the IDS situation where he was elected with only the support of 1/3 of Tory MPs and 2/3 thinking he was useful as a chocolate fireguard
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    How dare you omit the Engineering Employers Federation, you heartless swine!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNewsnight: "Theresa looks like a responsible adult instead of winging it & ad-libbing it like Boris" Guardian's Jonathan Freedland tells #newsnight
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    CornishBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    So May becomes PM, makes Boris Minister for Brexit (he can't turn it down), but she needs a chancellor.

    Someone who can calm the markets. Someone with experience. Someone who knows where the bodies are buried.

    Yes, step forward, George Osborne...

    I can see Osborne as Chancellor... it's his punishment - he can't leave the Treasury until that surplus comes about... hahahaha
    Groan.

    I'd like to see Osborne out pronto. That last budget was a political disaster. He is meant to be a political chancellor.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    bunnco said:

    Like I said in the last thread, I asked 89 of "The Great and the Good" today at the Royal Norfolk Show, highlight of the social calendar here in Norfolk, how they would vote in a forced choice between May and Johnson. This included an even mix of remainers and leavers.

    Remarkably, 87 broke for Theresa May. Of the two that chose Johnson, the second said they'd change their mind when I told them who the other person backing Boris was.
    Has he become that toxic already to those in the sticks?

    So the poll of party members is no surprise based on my straw poll.... except to say that I wonder whether it's actually OVERstating Boris's support.

    I was also told by a Parliamentarian that a bombshell revelation with 'news from Scotland' is due, which might explain the change in tone amongst some of the broadsheets, who now seem much more open minded to the TM4PM message. :Cryptic:

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    The carefully scripted line from Amber Rudd to Boris in the first debate was a clue.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RodCrosby said:

    All this Tory poll means is LEAVERS will look for a stronger candidate than Johnson...

    He knew this day would come. It is his destiny.

    Step forward, IDS...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    delete
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If this is accurate, proof that Boris didn't expect to win:

    twitter.com/lewisiwu/status/746076633644281856
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    You and I have different definitions of "significant"

    ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mortimer said:

    I'd like to see Osborne out pronto. That last budget was a political disaster. He is meant to be a political chancellor.

    His next budget will be dead easy.

    £350 quid a week for the NHS, job done...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,721
    Two more votes for May from leave Tories that I know well.

    "Boris is too divisive"

    "We need a serious political to deal with the EU talks"

    Were the reasons given.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    Does the Tower still take guests?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    SeanT said:

    Incidentally, watching Newsnight, it's interesting how the implicit consensus is that we are definitely OUT, in some form, despite the hopes of some (including me at about 3pm every day, for the last week)

    And they are right. We are OUT. We can't just ignore 17m votes. BREXIT is here.

    Article 50 will be triggered, probably before the end of the year. We need to roll up our sleeves and get on with it.

    Yup, that is the sound of reality dawning.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    kle4 said:

    KentRising said:

    Newsnight: "Corbyn is a broken man."

    Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
    Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'd like to see Osborne out pronto. That last budget was a political disaster. He is meant to be a political chancellor.

    His next budget will be dead easy.

    £350 quid a week for the NHS, job done...
    er, million :)
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First like Theresa

    Tory Women Prime Ministers = 2

    Labour WPM (until extinction) = 0
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    Aaronovitch is bidding against Trevor Phillips for the most WTF Are You On comments under their articles. About 500 each.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Wanderer said:


    er, million :)

    OK, it was a typo, but I fear, accurate
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:

    If this is accurate, proof that Boris didn't expect to win:

    twitter.com/lewisiwu/status/746076633644281856

    In fairness, pretty much everyone conceded that Remain had won, right up until Sunderland, which was another Nuneaton 2015 moment.

    PS Was only joking with the 'heartless swine' remark. I hope I haven't offended you!
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    Does the Tower still take guests?
    Quite. Anti-democrats. Sickening.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,387
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    You and I have different definitions of "significant"

    ;)
    A couple of superannuated politicians and a washed up columnist have stupid opinions shocker.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    test
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,386
    SeanT said:

    Incidentally, watching Newsnight, it's interesting how the implicit consensus is that we are definitely OUT, in some form, despite the hopes of some (including me at about 3pm every day, for the last week)

    And they are right. We are OUT. We can't just ignore 17m votes. BREXIT is here.

    Article 50 will be triggered, probably before the end of the year. We need to roll up our sleeves and get on with it.

    I think we are out, but I think there is a possibility, albeit very slim, we won't be - but that no one credible could say that as the plan now. Even the LDs are not pretending they can stop it. The slim change would be some incredible change in circumstances and fortune which unequivocally changed opinion in parliament and the public, within the next 3-4 months, if we can hold off declaring article 50 before then.

    Not probable at all, but I think public pronouncements or acceptance that out is out mean little right now - so soon after only fools could declare that their approach, but there are people who would revive it as a possibility if things unravel much more significantly prior to article 50.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Scott_P said:

    RodCrosby said:

    All this Tory poll means is LEAVERS will look for a stronger candidate than Johnson...

    He knew this day would come. It is his destiny.

    Step forward, IDS...
    Nah. The one man we really want to lead this great nation of ours is... Rees-Mogg! :D

    (Seriously - the more I see of him, the higher my regard... though he's not PM material in the current age, he should have a more prominent role somehow..)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    edited June 2016
    anotherDave said:

    delete

    Ah.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Mortimer said:

    CornishBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    So May becomes PM, makes Boris Minister for Brexit (he can't turn it down), but she needs a chancellor.

    Someone who can calm the markets. Someone with experience. Someone who knows where the bodies are buried.

    Yes, step forward, George Osborne...

    I can see Osborne as Chancellor... it's his punishment - he can't leave the Treasury until that surplus comes about... hahahaha
    Groan.

    I'd like to see Osborne out pronto. That last budget was a political disaster. He is meant to be a political chancellor.
    Leadsom may be the anti-Osborne choice.

    "Andrea Leadsom, billed by anyone who’d met her as a rising star in the party, was repeatedly left out of reshuffles because she had the temerity to question Osborne’s handling of the Libor scandal in 2012. She was eventually made economic secretary to the Treasury — Tories suggested this was a case of Osborne keeping his enemies closer — and is now minister of state for the rather lesser Department of Energy and Climate Change."

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/08/inside-george-osbornes-empire-how-the-chancellor-rules-westminster/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,729
    MyBurningEars said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MyBurningEars said:

    Has anybody senior in the Conservative party considered changing the leadership contest rules, so that the membership only get a vote in certain circumstances, and otherwise MPs just have a ballot on the final two?

    It can be a real downer for the country, as we are seeing now, when there is a leadership vacuum while the Tories are governing the country, so a simple "membership vote in opposition, MP vote in power" would make sense. It was eminently foreseeable that sitting PMs are quite likely to be toppled during some sort of crisis, and a lame duck or temporary PM can then be very damaging. (Since such crises might involve lack of confidence in the PM from backbenchers, it would make particular sense in this scenario to ensure that the new leader has majority support from MPs, not just "scraped into the final two" levels of support.)

    I appreciate that there are some other scenarios e.g. "orderly handing over of the reins of power" where a membership vote might make sense even while in government, so perhaps a more sophisticated rule change might be in order, but I am surprised I haven't seen serious discontent at the current rules. (Must be some furious Tories watching Sturgeon strutting about and thinking "she owns the stage until September - can't my party get a move on?")

    It has been considered, never implemented.

    There's talk of weighting the votes into an electoral college of both MPs and members.

    They want to avoid the IDS situation where he was elected with only the support of 1/3 of Tory MPs and 2/3 thinking he was useful as a chocolate fireguard
    Since it's the membership aspect of the vote that eats so much of the contest time, I wondered if a "fast-track leadership selection process" might work for e.g. national emergencies. I guess the hope is that if the situation were really bad, MPs would knock their heads together to ensure that only one candidate stood, but if the current situation doesn't qualify I don't know how bad it would have to be. I do think a lot of the British public - especially those who are not involved in Tory politics, and are unsettled by the current chaos - would welcome a speedier transition than is currently on offer.
    We did it in 2003
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    CornishBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    RodCrosby said:

    All this Tory poll means is LEAVERS will look for a stronger candidate than Johnson...

    He knew this day would come. It is his destiny.

    Step forward, IDS...
    Nah. The one man we really want to lead this great nation of ours is... Rees-Mogg! :D

    (Seriously - the more I see of him, the higher my regard... though he's not PM material in the current age, he should have a more prominent role somehow..)
    Bill Cash 4 Leader
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    CornishBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    RodCrosby said:

    All this Tory poll means is LEAVERS will look for a stronger candidate than Johnson...

    He knew this day would come. It is his destiny.

    Step forward, IDS...
    Nah. The one man we really want to lead this great nation of ours is... Rees-Mogg! :D

    (Seriously - the more I see of him, the higher my regard... though he's not PM material in the current age, he should have a more prominent role somehow..)
    Agreed.

    JRM would make an excellent Brexit negotiator. EXCELLENT.
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    YellowSubmarine said:

    bunnco said:

    Like I said in the last thread, I asked 89 of "The Great and the Good" today at the Royal Norfolk Show, highlight of the social calendar here in Norfolk, how they would vote in a forced choice between May and Johnson. This included an even mix of remainers and leavers.

    Remarkably, 87 broke for Theresa May. Of the two that chose Johnson, the second said they'd change their mind when I told them who the other person backing Boris was.
    Has he become that toxic already to those in the sticks?

    So the poll of party members is no surprise based on my straw poll.... except to say that I wonder whether it's actually OVERstating Boris's support.

    I was also told by a Parliamentarian that a bombshell revelation with 'news from Scotland' is due, which might explain the change in tone amongst some of the broadsheets, who now seem much more open minded to the TM4PM message. :Cryptic:

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    The carefully scripted line from Amber Rudd to Boris in the first debate was a clue.
    Yep - a real jaw-dropping game changer, which you may only be able to read about on Guido or over the pond in TTIP-land
  • reverend_catreverend_cat Posts: 71
    Jobabob said:

    kle4 said:

    KentRising said:

    Newsnight: "Corbyn is a broken man."

    Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
    Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
    How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?

    Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited June 2016
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First like Theresa

    Tory Women Prime Ministers = 2

    Labour WPM (until extinction) = 0
    Labour are a bunch of dinosaurs.

    Brexit (thanks to Corbers) is their meteorite.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    Soubry's a dreadful woman: Clarke and Hezza are antidemocratic europhiles. Lammy's an idiot.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    Ben Fellows really should have written Ken Clarke's obituary a long long time ago.........

    What a sad man hanging around in parliament.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    DanSmith said:

    Jobabob said:

    Great insight from the bunker from Nick Watt.

    Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.

    The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.

    Sounds like his family might step in and call this off.
    They would be right to. He is essentially a placeholder for the far left now. Clearly they have run the numbers and know they won't get anyone on the ballot if Corbyn concedes.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Scott_P said:

    RodCrosby said:

    All this Tory poll means is LEAVERS will look for a stronger candidate than Johnson...

    He knew this day would come. It is his destiny.

    Step forward, IDS...
    That would be an ecumenical matter....
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    YellowSubmarine said:

    bunnco said:

    Like I said in the last thread, I asked 89 of "The Great and the Good" today at the Royal Norfolk Show, highlight of the social calendar here in Norfolk, how they would vote in a forced choice between May and Johnson. This included an even mix of remainers and leavers.

    Remarkably, 87 broke for Theresa May. Of the two that chose Johnson, the second said they'd change their mind when I told them who the other person backing Boris was.
    Has he become that toxic already to those in the sticks?

    So the poll of party members is no surprise based on my straw poll.... except to say that I wonder whether it's actually OVERstating Boris's support.

    I was also told by a Parliamentarian that a bombshell revelation with 'news from Scotland' is due, which might explain the change in tone amongst some of the broadsheets, who now seem much more open minded to the TM4PM message. :Cryptic:

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot

    The carefully scripted line from Amber Rudd to Boris in the first debate was a clue.
    If Boris Johnson and Eddie Izzard are revealed to be the same person, I'm going to be very disappointed.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    KentRising said:

    CornishBlue said:

    I am a Tory member and was going to vote for Boris but now feel that I have to vote for May as Boris will be too divisive in what has become a very fractured nation.

    That's my thinking. Boris is too divisive: we need a more neutral - yet hardened - figure.
    Yep - not necessarily May, but if it's Boris v May then May it is.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    And now misery guts herself standing against Jeremy Corbyn. Even Labour's worst enemy couldn't surely have wished their current fate upon them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Actually Heseltine said there should either be another referendum or a general election.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    KentRising said:

    AndyJS said:

    Significant figures who have so far called for Parliament to vote for the UK to stay in the EU in defiance of the referendum result:

    Ken Clarke MP
    Jim Dowd MP
    Anna Soubry MP
    David Lammy MP
    Tam Dalyell
    Richard Dawkins
    Michael Heseltine
    David Aaronovitch

    Soubry's a dreadful woman: Clarke and Hezza are antidemocratic europhiles. Lammy's an idiot.
    And what a sad decline for Tam Dalyell having raised the perfectly legitimate West Lothian question back in the day.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2016
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/748281223903076353
    ...or will be asking the Electoral Commission to re-register itself as The Silly Party...
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Mortimer said:

    CornishBlue said:

    Scott_P said:

    RodCrosby said:

    All this Tory poll means is LEAVERS will look for a stronger candidate than Johnson...

    He knew this day would come. It is his destiny.

    Step forward, IDS...
    Nah. The one man we really want to lead this great nation of ours is... Rees-Mogg! :D

    (Seriously - the more I see of him, the higher my regard... though he's not PM material in the current age, he should have a more prominent role somehow..)
    Agreed.

    JRM would make an excellent Brexit negotiator. EXCELLENT.
    The Euros wouldn't know what to think, say or do faced with the Moggster.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    reverend_cat said:

    Jobabob said:

    kle4 said:

    KentRising said:

    Newsnight: "Corbyn is a broken man."

    Even he cannot keep this up. Even if his enemies are right that Labour is more a vehicle for him than a true cause, it's a vehicle he would need, and his staying blows its tires off. He'll switch to a new driver he trusts.
    Very hard for him to do so. Unlikely a Corbynite would make the ballot.
    How many nominations would be needed this time? 35 again?

    Are there 35 or more MPs with sympathy to Corbyn style policies??
    He would have to attract a score of nominations from the soft left to get over the line I should think. Unlikely, possibly very unlikely – the likes of Eagle and Nandy are part of the rebellion. The rebellion covers every MP from soft left, centre-left, centre, right and union right.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    If Boris gets forced out of contest, my 16/1 Leadsom ticket looks more like a runner :)

    (There surely must be at least one Leave MP in the final two)
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Jobabob said:

    DanSmith said:

    Jobabob said:

    Great insight from the bunker from Nick Watt.

    Corbyn a broken man. Would quit were it not for the far-left telling him that if he leaves then Momentum loses control of the party.

    The PLP should hold off, and don't challenge, but keep up the pressure. More NCV in CLPs, more council leader resignations, appoint a leader in the Commons. Keep turning the screw. Horrible, but necessary.

    Sounds like his family might step in and call this off.
    They would be right to. He is essentially a placeholder for the far left now. Clearly they have run the numbers and know they won't get anyone on the ballot if Corbyn concedes.
    That's a good point about running the numbers. If they thought they could get him on the ballot surely they'd switch to McD or Lewis at this point.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Zero sunspots on the sun for 6 days now, La Nina rapidly reducing global temperatures leading into the grand solar minimum from 2024 to 2034. And a few governments around the world are starting to prepare for the resultant food shortages without informing the public in advance:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-29/fema-contractor-unrest-after-395-food-price-spike-coming-soon
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