politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An SDP Mark 2 is now a real possibility within 4 months

HYUFD said:

Corbyn would beat Eagle, the only viable replacement I can see is McDonnell

in the Corbyn side of Labour, no one is "viable"

SquareRoot said:

HYUFD said:

Corbyn would beat Eagle, the only viable replacement I can see is McDonnell

in the Corbyn side of Labour, no one is "viable"

McDonnell is the Corbyn side

SouthamObserver said:

Is it me, or have Boris's promises changed?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/748047629758660608

The fascinating thing is that I think Boris will finish as the 'proto-remain' candidate in the leadership election, with a much more pro-integration platform than May. Today's article from Truss is an early indicator.

Boris is the one who wanted to stay in the EU, but joined Leave for tactical reasons. May is the one who wanted to leave the EU, but stayed with remain for a combination of loyalty and tactics.

The weird thing at the moment, watching the debate in the Tory party, is that many of the fervent leavers think Boris is their candidate, with May the remain candidate. As the campaign progresses many of them are going to realise they are in the wrong side!

Boris's problem is that he never imagined becoming quite so tied to the leave platform, and promises, as he now is. He is famed for his 'flexibility" but even he is going to find it very difficult to get his position back to his original pro-EU (reformed) instincts....

david_herdson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Omnium said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Yep, the one thing that can save the Labour party now is an early election, so that the majority of MPs returned to the much smaller group that ends up in the new Commons is made up of those who oppose Corbyn. At that stage, not only will the glorious leader have led Labour to crushing defeat, but he will be faced with five more years of not being able to run an opposition. Even Corbyn may give up at that point and then Labour can begin the slow, painful process of rebuilding.

The alternative is that the election is not called early and the PLP effectively creates a new party that has the time to build support, develop an organisation and get some money. I suspect it will attract a fair amount of that, especially as it would become the official opposition. However, when the election does come, both official Labour and whatever the new party is called (the Co-operative party?) will be wiped out and millions of voters will have no representation at all.

Of course, if Corbyn were to stand down, all this could be prevented. A new candidate on the left could stand against candidates from the centre and the right, and Labour members would get to choose who they wanted to be in charge. The very high probability is that everyone would accept the result and rally around the new leader.

Obviously, that is not going to happen.

Labour is finished.

What are the odds on those MP's not supporting Corbyn being deselected?

High. Which will force a split before that can happen.

A split only works if the right has big donors lined up; without cash to fight an election, they are scuppered (maybe Tony Blair can put his hand in his pocket). Perhaps they have, and this is a carefully-plotted coup, though Angela Eagle as putative LOTO suggests otherwise.

There are three things that an SDP2 would need which it doesn't currently have: money, yes, but also organisation (VI data, computer systems, local leadership structure), and activists.

All the same, if the MPs are going looking at a high chance of being booted out and also see no future for their party, then they might accept all of those short-term hits.

If 120+ Labour MPs joined the LibDems now, then Tim Farron would be LOTO and would lead the opposition at PMQs. (They'd probably elect a new leader). The policy platform would be pro-EU, pro-business but with a strong strand of social justice and personal liberty.

Party renamed Liberal Labour or LibLab for short.

They would get funding from pro-EU business. Current LibDem PPCs would step down in favour of current LibLab MPs.

I'm just dreaming. LibDems most seats at next election now 20 on Betfair.

MaxPB said:

mr-claypole said:

A realignment is coming- not just in Labour. The notional majority of the government is gone because there are a number in Tory ranks who will move to the Remain party as soon as the split happens in Labour, which the liberals will join. That is why an election is certain. Socially liberal,middle of the Road and pragmatic, pro EU. One of the reasons Ukip now in a no lose situation. Tory grandees will be at the vanguard- Cameron Osborne Major.

And no more referendums. Ever.

No, you can already see the Tories begin to unite behind the leave vote. If May becomes the leader it will be complete, I took a straw pollof members I know over WhatsApp last night, in a May vs Boris contest May wins a fairly decent majority of votes. That's also among a group of voters in favour of leave overall. The leave members split 50/50 and the remain members were almost united in their support of Mrs May.

Hopefully other members can do the same and report on here, but if it is a final two of seriousness and gravitas vs piffle and classics, the first option will win. I think most members recognise we need a Thatcher, not a Hague.

PM May is much scarier than Brexit

Jonathan said:

Whilst we must never say never at the moment, it is very unlikely that anything like the SDP will be created. No-one on the Labour side wants it.

Jonathan. Who do you think would be the best Labour MP to stand against Corbyn?

Seems more likely that Eagle will be the one, as Hodge is pointing out that Watson might lose deputy post and although Hodges says it doesn't matter if he does if Corbyn wins: it'll be all over.

MarkHopkins said:

SouthamObserver said:

Is it me, or have Boris's promises changed?
twitter.com/adambienkov/status/748047629758660608

Result was 52:48, not 67:33. So I doubt it is fair to enact every promise fully. Compromise will have to be made.

I wonder how many Leave (and Remain) voters are opposed to an extra £350 million a week on the NHS, VAT cuts, no public spending cuts and no tax rises. My guess is that Boris wouldn't need to compromise on those. I'm amazed he forgot to put them on his new pledge list.

I'm still unclear on what the rogue MPs want re Europe. The LDs have cone out for rejoining, not a second referendum as I understand it, though if we did have an election before article 50 I suppose they would endorse Not declaring at all. The Tories, already being split in half in parliament, I think accept there's no point fighting leaving, and it's a question what option gets most of the party on board and who can sell it to the country. A few suggestions they might want a new, as opposed to a rerun, election, on any deal, but I do t get the impression most want that, and they clearly don't want a GE.

But what about labour? They surely can't say we won't leave on their watch without losing seats in the north, so are they going to go for eea? Are they going to say we need a new referendum? Why when they cannot do that without Tory agreement anyway?

I really am co fused what their intentions now could be.

I hadn't realised quite how out of touch with mainstream Labour MPs Jezza was until yesterday.

All Labour MPs are alien lefty species from my viewpoint, so it hadn't really registered ;-)

But to lose a no-confidence vote so spectacularly and still carry on is breathtaking and hilarious. Ain;t gonna end well!

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Is it me, or have Boris's promises changed?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/748047629758660608

The fascinating thing is that I think Boris will finish as the 'proto-remain' candidate in the leadership election, with a much more pro-integration platform than May. Today's article from Truss is an early indicator.

Boris is the one who wanted to stay in the EU, but joined Leave for tactical reasons. May is the one who wanted to leave the EU, but stayed with remain for a combination of loyalty and tactics.

The weird thing at the moment, watching the debate in the Tory party, is that many of the fervent leavers think Boris is their candidate, with May the remain candidate. As the campaign progresses many of them are going to realise they are in the wrong side!

Boris's problem is that he never imagined becoming quite so tied to the leave platform, and promises, as he now is. He is famed for his 'flexibility" but even he is going to find it very difficult to get his position back to his original pro-EU (reformed) instincts....

I won't be voting for Boris.

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

PlatoSaid said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

A Syriza/Podemos party is more likely than an SDP2. It already has a name. Momentum

More likely a new swanky name such as "NEW Labour

FPT I posted this
Re Corbyn.

The Labour Party could split and the rebels would need a new name but as pointed out up thread retaining the Labour name due to its "strong branding" would be really important to retain seats.

They have already had "New Labour" hence the convention is to go one step further so how about.

"New Improved Labour"

The Co-operative party could split with Labour and that would become the new party's name. Not sure if that's possible, but it's the obvious choice if it is.

I am not sure the word Co-Op in todays world is a good idea. It summons up the idea of little old ladies with hairnets and fags hanging off their lip whilst collecting their divi stamps.

Very unappealing

Ena Sharples. I associate Co-op with low tech little supermarkets, having a bank crisis and generally behind the times.

Coop now has the best digital outfit in the UK.

Plato is not part of the relevant demographic. Right wing Tories are not going to vote for a centre left party.

Dearie me.

Rather than deciding what I think or what my personal circumstances are, again - just stick to your own.

You look silly and childish.

Ha, ha. You are a right wing Tory. Why are you so ashamed to admit it? You have floated all the way from Labour to the brink of UKIP. Do you think people don't notice these things. Yesterday you were advocating Angela Leadsom be the Chancellor because she was as dry as sand. You support this:
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/737525064199856128

You keep posting this SO - do you think incentivising better and longer working rather than reliance on social welfare is a bad thing?

Oh - and if supporting austerity makes you a right wing Tory, then we're going to have a lot of right wing Tory governments....

I think making poor people poorer is definitely a bad thing. Boris has promised more public spending and no tax rises, so it looks like austerity is on the way out.

Well done SO, you are now into double figures on the posting of that particular Jo Maugham tweet....

All well and good to get on your high horse about tax and benefits - but when your Labour party was overseeing those same affected people losing their jobs, where were you? You keep posting that tweet, but the flip side is that at least there are jobs now for people.

rottenborough said:

Barnesian said:

david_herdson said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Omnium said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

snip
Labour is finished.

What are the odds on those MP's not supporting Corbyn being deselected?

High. Which will force a split before that can happen.

A split only works if the right has big donors lined up; without cash to fight an election, they are scuppered (maybe Tony Blair can put his hand in his pocket). Perhaps they have, and this is a carefully-plotted coup, though Angela Eagle as putative LOTO suggests otherwise.

There are three things that an SDP2 would need which it doesn't currently have: money, yes, but also organisation (VI data, computer systems, local leadership structure), and activists.

All the same, if the MPs are going looking at a high chance of being booted out and also see no future for their party, then they might accept all of those short-term hits.

If 120+ Labour MPs joined the LibDems now, then Tim Farron would be LOTO and would lead the opposition at PMQs. (They'd probably elect a new leader). The policy platform would be pro-EU, pro-business but with a strong strand of social justice and personal liberty.

Party renamed Liberal Labour or LibLab for short.

They would get funding from pro-EU business. Current LibDem PPCs would step down in favour of current LibLab MPs.

I'm just dreaming. LibDems most seats at next election now 20 on Betfair.

The problem with these dreams/ideas of SDPII is they don't take account of what Beckett called "the family" aspect of Labour. The level of personal commitment and tribalism of MPs to Labour is very very high. Also I can't see anyone jumping who doesn't have full backing of their own constituency exec/members.

And if you take soundings with them and misjudge you'll be out of there for good.

Indigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarkHopkins said:

SouthamObserver said:

Is it me, or have Boris's promises changed?
twitter.com/adambienkov/status/748047629758660608

Result was 52:48, not 67:33. So I doubt it is fair to enact every promise fully. Compromise will have to be made.

I wonder how many Leave (and Remain) voters are opposed to an extra £350 million a week on the NHS, VAT cuts, no public spending cuts and no tax rises. My guess is that Boris wouldn't need to compromise on those. I'm amazed he forgot to put them on his new pledge list.

No your not, this is becoming rather tiresome, we all know how politics is done. Dave broke nine of his manifesto pledges in the first month of this parliament, how many voters could name those now, or care what they were ? Voters won't expect to get all of it, and many will be pleasantly surprised if they get any of it! Especially since none of it will happen at all for two years or more.

I think plenty of people will remember this one ...
https://twitter.com/rossfootball/status/746491245208420353

Charles said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

We don't know what the new party's platform would be. We don't know how popular leaving the EU will be when the election is called. We don't know what the themes of the next GE will be. If Boris is PM and has not delivered on his promises, then that may well be the major issue. The voters may be at a point where what they want to do most of all is get rid of the Tories. That's why an early election is probably in Boris's best interests. He should get it out of the way before the scale of his betrayal becomes apparent.

The problem that the opponents of Corbyn had in the last leadership election is we never knew what they stood for either. Progressive Labour (and surely Progressive will be the name of the new party) has not recovered from the Brown calamity, the horrific consequences for the country's finances and a managerialist mindset that worked up to a point when in power but looks empty and pointless out of it. But one thing we unequivocally know is that they are pro EU, rabidly so. It is a core, arguably the core, of their identity.

I have to say that I completely disagree with that. I would call them pragmatic above all else. They will not campaign on a return to the EU. They will campaign against Boris's betrayal of Leave voters and to get the Tories out. It would be more effective if Labour were united and doing it. But Labour isn't.

I have been mildly astonished at the genuine and deep anger of Remainers in Scotland since the result. As a Leave supporter I have been hectored and abused by people desperate to vent their frustration and disappointment. Sturgeon is looking to harness that energy and there is little doubt that a section of the Unionist vote is very angry with the English decision and more open to her siren songs than ever before.

Whether that will last who knows but certainly on the Scottish experience you should not underestimate how these people feel about the result of the referendum.

My sister has been reduced to tears by people hectoring her, calling her racist and God know what for voting Leave.

I have avoided this by admitting it to nobody...I was even nervous about telling my wife who voted Remain but she seems fine with it

Almost everyone I work with assumes "everyone" here voted Remain. Same on facebook. Ah well.

MarqueeMark said:

Well done SO, you are now into double figures on the posting of that particular Jo Maugham tweet....

All well and good to get on your high horse about tax and benefits - but when your Labour party was overseeing those same affected people losing their jobs, where were you? You keep posting that tweet, but the flip side is that at least there are jobs now for people.

I am not defending the Labour party. It is indefensible. I am merely observing that Tory Leavers who claim to care about ordinary people have enthusiastically supported policies that actively harm them. Still, the good news is that Boris has promised tax cuts and increases in public spending, so austerity will soon be coming to an end.

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

PlatoSaid said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

A Syriza/Podemos party is more likely than an SDP2. It already has a name. Momentum

More likely a new swanky name such as "NEW Labour

FPT I posted this
Re Corbyn.

The Labour Party could split and the rebels would need a new name but as pointed out up thread retaining the Labour name due to its "strong branding" would be really important to retain seats.

They have already had "New Labour" hence the convention is to go one step further so how about.

"New Improved Labour"

The Co-operative party could split with Labour and that would become the new party's name. Not sure if that's possible, but it's the obvious choice if it is.

I am not sure the word Co-Op in todays world is a good idea. It summons up the idea of little old ladies with hairnets and fags hanging off their lip whilst collecting their divi stamps.

Very unappealing

Ena Sharples. I associate Co-op with low tech little supermarkets, having a bank crisis and generally behind the times.

Coop now has the best digital outfit in the UK.

Plato is not part of the relevant demographic. Right wing Tories are not going to vote for a centre left party.

Dearie me.

Rather than deciding what I think or what my personal circumstances are, again - just stick to your own.

You look silly and childish.

Ha, ha. You are a right wing Tory. Why are you so ashamed to admit it? You have floated all the way from Labour to the brink of UKIP. Do you think people don't notice these things. Yesterday you were advocating Angela Leadsom be the Chancellor because she was as dry as sand. You support this:
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/737525064199856128

That bloke know's his tax, but he's a bit silly when he claims that 'sticking up VAT hits the poor', then 'cutting VAT hits the poor'

JonCisBack said:

Charles said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

We don't know what the new party's platform would be. We don't know how popular leaving the EU will be when the election is called. We don't know what the themes of the next GE will be. If Boris is PM and has not delivered on his promises, then that may well be the major issue. The voters may be at a point where what they want to do most of all is get rid of the Tories. That's why an early election is probably in Boris's best interests. He should get it out of the way before the scale of his betrayal becomes apparent.

The problem that the opponents of Corbyn had in the last leadership election is we never knew what they stood for either. Progressive Labour (and surely Progressive will be the name of the new party) has not recovered from the Brown calamity, the horrific consequences for the country's finances and a managerialist mindset that worked up to a point when in power but looks empty and pointless out of it. But one thing we unequivocally know is that they are pro EU, rabidly so. It is a core, arguably the core, of their identity.

I have to say that I completely disagree with that. I would call them pragmatic above all else. They will not campaign on a return to the EU. They will campaign against Boris's betrayal of Leave voters and to get the Tories out. It would be more effective if Labour were united and doing it. But Labour isn't.

I have been mildly astonished at the genuine and deep anger of Remainers in Scotland since the result. As a Leave supporter I have been hectored and abused by people desperate to vent their frustration and disappointment. Sturgeon is looking to harness that energy and there is little doubt that a section of the Unionist vote is very angry with the English decision and more openndum.

My sister has been reduced to tears by people hectoring her, calling her racist and God know what for voting Leave.

I have avoided this by admitting it to nobody...I was even nervous about telling my wife who voted Remain but she seems fine with it

Almost everyone I work with assumes "everyone" here voted Remain. Same on facebook. Ah well.

Same here. I've not said I voted remain, and I've tried avoiding lying about it, but everyone clearly assumes I must have voted remain.

It's cowardly of me not yo correct that, but I feel detailing any nuanced opinion or the assessing to take the decision would take too long in person. And if things go very wrong at least it's only pbers who will have the right to call me an idiot.

I see in the papers today that England's result against Iceland is terribly unpopular in some quarters and driving an angry reaction. But don't worry: The petition to replay the game has over 3 million votes now.

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

SouthamObserver said:

MarkHopkins said:

SouthamObserver said:

Is it me, or have Boris's promises changed?
twitter.com/adambienkov/status/748047629758660608

Result was 52:48, not 67:33. So I doubt it is fair to enact every promise fully. Compromise will have to be made.

I wonder how many Leave (and Remain) voters are opposed to an extra £350 million a week on the NHS, VAT cuts, no public spending cuts and no tax rises. My guess is that Boris wouldn't need to compromise on those. I'm amazed he forgot to put them on his new pledge list.

No your not, this is becoming rather tiresome, we all know how politics is done. Dave broke nine of his manifesto pledges in the first month of this parliament, how many voters could name those now, or care what they were ? Voters won't expect to get all of it, and many will be pleasantly surprised if they get any of it! Especially since none of it will happen at all for two years or more.

I think plenty of people will remember this one ...
https://twitter.com/rossfootball/status/746491245208420353

Yes.

Slackbladder said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

PlatoSaid said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

A Syriza/Podemos party is more likely than an SDP2. It already has a name. Momentum

More likely a new swanky name such as "NEW Labour

FPT I posted this
Re Corbyn.

The Labour Party could split and the rebels would need a new name but as pointed out up thread retaining the Labour name due to its "strong branding" would be really important to retain seats.

They have already had "New Labour" hence the convention is to go one step further so how about.

"New Improved Labour"

The Co-operative party could split with Labour and that would become the new party's name. Not sure if that's possible, but it's the obvious choice if it is.

I am not sure the word Co-Op in todays world is a good idea. It summons up the idea of little old ladies with hairnets and fags hanging off their lip whilst collecting their divi stamps.

Very unappealing

Ena Sharples. I associate Co-op with low tech little supermarkets, having a bank crisis and generally behind the times.

Coop now has the best digital outfit in the UK.

Plato is not part of the relevant demographic. Right wing Tories are not going to vote for a centre left party.

Dearie me.

Rather than deciding what I think or what my personal circumstances are, again - just stick to your own.

You look silly and childish.

Ha, ha. You are a right wing Tory. Why are you so ashamed to admit it? You have floated all the way from Labour to the brink of UKIP. Do you think people don't notice these things. Yesterday you were advocating Angela Leadsom be the Chancellor because she was as dry as sand. You support this:
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/737525064199856128

That bloke know's his tax, but he's a bit silly when he claims that 'sticking up VAT hits the poor', then 'cutting VAT hits the poor'

It's an IFS chart.

Morning everyone.

FTSE 100 and 250 up quite nicely this morning I notice...

SouthamObserver said:

Slackbladder said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

PlatoSaid said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

A Syriza/Podemos party is more likely than an SDP2. It already has a name. Momentum

More likely a new swanky name such as "NEW Labour

FPT I posted this
Re Corbyn.

The Labour Party could split and the rebels would need a new name but as pointed out up thread retaining the Labour name due to its "strong branding" would be really important to retain seats.

They have already had "New Labour" hence the convention is to go one step further so how about.

"New Improved Labour"

The Co-operative party could split with Labour and that would become the new party's name. Not sure if that's possible, but it's the obvious choice if it is.

I am not sure the word Co-Op in todays world is a good idea. It summons up the idea of little old ladies with hairnets and fags hanging off their lip whilst collecting their divi stamps.

Very unappealing

Ena Sharples. I associate Co-op with low tech little supermarkets, having a bank crisis and generally behind the times.

Coop now has the best digital outfit in the UK.

Plato is not part of the relevant demographic. Right wing Tories are not going to vote for a centre left party.

Dearie me.

Rather than deciding what I think or what my personal circumstances are, again - just stick to your own.

You look silly and childish.

Ha, ha. You are a right wing Tory. Why are you so ashamed to admit it? You have floated all the way from Labour to the brink of UKIP. Do you think people don't notice these things. Yesterday you were advocating Angela Leadsom be the Chancellor because she was as dry as sand. You support this:
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/737525064199856128

That bloke know's his tax, but he's a bit silly when he claims that 'sticking up VAT hits the poor', then 'cutting VAT hits the poor'

It's an IFS chart.

I know, but he's said that to me on twitter in the past.

Indigo said:

logical_song said:

That's obvious.

Labour, the party of the working man, where just about all their supporters on this forum are sneering at the choice of the said working (wo)man just as hard as they can... My FB feed is full of lefties complaining that they have lost their country because of the "bloody chavs". I am sure it won't be noticed.

Disagreeing with you is not sneering at the choice of anyone. Leave made big promisrs to working men and women, they will be expected to deliver on them. Your cynical "all politicians lie" line will not wash, I'm afraid.

dugarbandier said:

Indigo said:

dugarbandier said:

blackburn63 said:

last week the electorate stated it wanted to control immigration,

that's not what it said on the ballot

Stop playing games. There is what the ballot said, what the campaign promoted, and what the voters want, they are not even remotely the same. Even if VoteLeave was full to the eyeballs of positive Gisela Stuart types, a large chunk of the country would have seen it as an opportunity to reduce immigration, either directly, or as a necessarily first step.

not playing games at all. just think that you can't really make the claim that "the electorate" want what you say. Sure, a goodly number of them probably did vote for primarily that reason, but not necessarily a majority of those that voted leave.

... and remember Leave only just won, by 3.8%.
Considering the enormity of the lies used (£350m/wk and reduced immigration) and which have since been renounced, you can't claim "the electorate" wanted to do anything in particular.

blackburn63 said:

Nearly a week on and Remainers are still in name calling denial while the rest of us get on with our lives.

I simply don't understand why you place so much faith in politicians when they prove time and again to be useless. We should now have a referendum to remove the House of Lords and get rid of another layer of needless bureaucracy.

I think it will be a very long time before we have a referendum on any subject.

Except a 2nd EU one of course.

SouthamObserver said:

Slackbladder said:

SouthamObserver said:

PlatoSaid said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

PlatoSaid said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Moses_ said:

SquareRoot said:

Jonathan said:

A Syriza/Podemos party is more likely than an SDP2. It already has a name. Momentum

More likely a new swanky name such as "NEW Labour

FPT I posted this
Re Corbyn.

The Labour Party could split and the rebels would need a new name but as pointed out up thread retaining the Labour name due to its "strong branding" would be really important to retain seats.

They have already had "New Labour" hence the convention is to go one step further so how about.

"New Improved Labour"

The Co-operative party could split with Labour and that would become the new party's name. Not sure if that's possible, but it's the obvious choice if it is.

I am not sure the word Co-Op in todays world is a good idea. It summons up the idea of little old ladies with hairnets and fags hanging off their lip whilst collecting their divi stamps.

Very unappealing

Ena Sharples. I associate Co-op with low tech little supermarkets, having a bank crisis and generally behind the times.

Coop now has the best digital outfit in the UK.

Plato is not part of the relevant demographic. Right wing Tories are not going to vote for a centre left party.

Dearie me.

Rather than deciding what I think or what my personal circumstances are, again - just stick to your own.

You look silly and childish.

Ha, ha. You are a right wing Tory. Why are you so ashamed to admit it? You have floated all the way from Labour to the brink of UKIP. Do you think people don't notice these things. Yesterday you were advocating Angela Leadsom be the Chancellor because she was as dry as sand. You support this:
https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/status/737525064199856128

That bloke know's his tax, but he's a bit silly when he claims that 'sticking up VAT hits the poor', then 'cutting VAT hits the poor'

It's an IFS chart.

Paid for by the EU. Or something.

dugarbandier said:

MaxPB said:

mr-claypole said:

A realignment is coming- not just in Labour. The notional majority of the government is gone because there are a number in Tory ranks who will move to the Remain party as soon as the split happens in Labour, which the liberals will join. That is why an election is certain. Socially liberal,middle of the Road and pragmatic, pro EU. One of the reasons Ukip now in a no lose situation. Tory grandees will be at the vanguard- Cameron Osborne Major.

And no more referendums. Ever.

No, you can already see the Tories begin to unite behind the leave vote. If May becomes the leader it will be complete, I took a straw pollof members I know over WhatsApp last night, in a May vs Boris contest May wins a fairly decent majority of votes. That's also among a group of voters in favour of leave overall. The leave members split 50/50 and the remain members were almost united in their support of Mrs May.

Hopefully other members can do the same and report on here, but if it is a final two of seriousness and gravitas vs piffle and classics, the first option will win. I think most members recognise we need a Thatcher, not a Hague.

PM May is much scarier than Brexit

And IMHO more Brexit than Boris

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

We don't know what the new party's platform would be. We don't know how popular leaving the EU will be when the election is called. We don't know what the themes of the next GE will be. If Boris is PM and has not delivered on his promises, then that may well be the major issue. The voters may be at a point where what they want to do most of all is get rid of the Tories. That's why an early election is probably in Boris's best interests. He should get it out of the way before the scale of his betrayal becomes apparent.

The problem that the opponents of Corbyn of their identity.

I have to say that I completely disagree with that. I would call them pragmatic above all else. They will not campaign on a return to the EU. They will campaign against Boris's betrayal of Leave voters and to get the Tories out. It would be more effective if Labour were united and doing it. But Labour isn't.

I have been mildly astonished at the genuine and deep anger of Remainers in Scotland since the result. As a Leave supporter I have been hectored and abused by people desperate to vent their frustration and disappointment. Sturgeon is looking to harness that energy and there is little doubt that a section of the Unionist vote is very angry with the English decision and more open to her siren songs than ever before.

Whether that will last who knows but certainly on the Scottish experience you should not underestimate how these people feel about the result of the referendum.

Seriously, you didn't realise this was going to be the outcome of a leave vote?

The break up of the union and the short term economic damage were my reasons for voting remain. Indy will be won on the basis of promises about lots of financial firms moving to an EU based Edinburgh and the anger over the fact that the English deliberately put the UK into a recession so that they could indulge their fantasises.

I think PB Leavers were so engrossed in their elegant, thoughtful desired Leave position (in contradistinction to the actual Leave position, and peoples' reasons for voting Leave) that it comes as a genuine shock when the reality, both of what they have helped to do, and of how the Leave vote has affected those outside the PB bubble, finally dawns on them.

@DavidL, one of the bright PB Leavers, with his well-thought out, theoretically attractive motives and desired outcomes, is perhaps the most curious example.

blackburn63 said:

About ten years ago I decided we'd be better off out of the EU and voted and campaigned accordingly, swimming against the tide. In recent weeks my heart took over as the abuse reached its crescendo. I've spoken to countless people who feel the same way.

I know - feels great, right?

foxinsoxuk said:

GIN1138 said:

Morning everyone.

FTSE 100 and 250 up quite nicely this morning I notice...

Only because Article 50 is now pushed into the future, indeed quite possibly indefinitely.

The spin begins.

Nobody is gonna know for six months how this plays out.. Let's just wait and see whether it was all worth it.

JackW said:

FART News - Falconer Active Resignation Timetable News

0910 hours - There is dismay in Primrose Hill as news filters through that a reclusive and demur local author has been toppled from the Sunday Times best seller list by Volume 5 of Charlie Falconer's book - "My Struggle - The First Hundred Days".

Clearly book buying, with only a few peculiar exceptions, had already hit the brick wall of Brexit. Who would have thought it would be the first industry to succumb?

Morning all

An interesting piece by David and, as always, I don't agree with most of it but thank you for putting it forward.

Labour is a victim of its own democracy just as, arguably, the Conservatives are or will be. The days of the MPs getting together and quickly choosing a new leader (as happened with the departures of Macmillan, Wilson and Thatcher) are over and it's astonishing neither party has allowed for it in its constitution as an "emergency measure".

This mirrors 1979-81 in the sense that the PLP has become detached from the Labour Party on the ground. The membership clearly wanted Corbyn last year though opening the floodgates to Conservative spoilers (and indeed other spoilers) was an act of unmitigated stupidity. Back in the late 70s, Militant (the Momentum of its day) was talking over CLPs and Union branches - is that happening now ? I don't sense it.

Clearly, a "sensible" Labour party is the Conservative nightmare just as the SDP was in 1981-82. We forget, because it was made up primarily of Labour MPs, how much Conservative support it attracted. I canvassed in Bromley in south east London in the bleak midwinter of February 1982 and the Conservative vote was disintegrating, The 1982 GLC elections would have been a bloodbath for the Conservatives.

The Falklands saved both the Conservative and Labour parties in different ways.

The SDP had until then coasted along on a tide of public goodwill and support - it had leaders in Jenkins, Owen and Williams who were liked and respected more outside Labour than within Foot's party. As a Liberal in the south, we welcomed them and Cyril Smith's comment wasn't widely shared apart from in the north where the SDP seemed likely to replace Labour as the dominant political force.

Yet none of this happened overnight - from the Dimbleby Lecture, it was a full 18 months until Limehouse. Owen came quite late to the idea of a new party as I recall. Things move faster now - if the Conservatives choose an outright LEAVE supporter, whither the Conservative REMAIN supporters ?

The parallel for me is the idea of the "king across the water" - as it was with Jenkins, so might it be for David Miliband. Were he to return and publicly endorse the new centre-left force, I think it would be significant.

TGOHF said:

foxinsoxuk said:

GIN1138 said:

Morning everyone.

FTSE 100 and 250 up quite nicely this morning I notice...

Only because Article 50 is now pushed into the future, indeed quite possibly indefinitely.

We are all Brexiteers now - article 50 or not.

When I see the term Brexiteers, I feel I am letting the side down if I don't wear swords, leather boots and a large, plumed hat...

Perfect ...
https://twitter.com/itsjamesherring/status/748024161520463873

Paristonda said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

one thing we unequivocally know is that they are pro EU, rabidly so. It is a core, arguably the core, of their identity.

I have to say that I completely disagree with that. I would call them pragmatic above all else. They will not campaign on a return to the EU. They will campaign against Boris's betrayal of Leave voters and to get the Tories out. It would be more effective if Labour were united and doing it. But Labour isn't.

I have been mildly astonished at the genuine and deep anger of Remainers in Scotland since the result. As a Leave supporter I have been hectored and abused by people desperate to vent their frustration and disappointment. Sturgeon is looking to harness that energy and there is little doubt that a section of the Unionist vote is very angry with the English decision and more open to her siren songs than ever before.

Whether that will last who knows but certainly on the Scottish experience you should not underestimate how these people feel about the result of the referendum.

I think that remainer anger generally will become intense If things aren't handled properly. If we had voted to remain, leave voters will have voted for something they want and not been given it - so a profound disappointment not to get what you want. By voting to leave, remainer voters wanted to keep something they had, and have had it taken from them - there's a more intense visceral anger to that I think. Especially as we weren't expecting to lose it.

In Scotland, There will be even more anger among unionists at the thought that English voters were warned about the risks to the union and voted to leave anyway. I expect a creeping anti-English backlash to play a bigger part of the next indyref campaign - it will be a lot less positive than the previous Yes case.

My two Scottish contacts (both anti-Indy1) do not seem particularly angry. But they are sad and disappointed, both with the vote outcome and with the British parties. Both admiring of how Sturgeon has handled things and much more receptive to independence than before, provided it secures Scotland within the EU. This is the capital that Sturgeon is accumulating right now - apart possibly from Tim Farron she is the only politician emerging from this fiasco fortnight with any credit.

SouthamObserver said:

Perfect ...
https://twitter.com/itsjamesherring/status/748024161520463873

Wot - no killer weather? Disappointed....

edmundintokyo said:

david_herdson said:

There are three things that an SDP2 would need which it doesn't currently have: money, yes, but also organisation (VI data, computer systems, local leadership structure), and activists.

Work with the LibDems from the get-go. That'll at least get them the national stuff. Then they bring their own activists in some places, and let the LibDems take the lead in others.

But how many seats do the Lib Dems have data, activists and organisation in these days, where it would be of use to Labour? On top of which, it's one thing to co-operate with a party of 30-40 MPs, as in 1981; it's a different matter to do likewise with one of 150+, when you only have eight.

The best bet for the Lib Dems would be to avoid all co-operation with either Labour or SDP2 and look to come through the middle while retaining their independence. The price, of course, would be an immense Tory majority at the next election.

blackburn63 said:

The leader of the Labour Party is irrelevant until it changes its message, last week the electorate stated it wanted to control immigration, any party that wants to win the next GE will have to pledge to control immigration.

That may be unpalatable to some but its true.

There's an interesting choice to be made here and changes aren't impossible. The position is that:
1. Traditionally the party has supported immigration, partly from Europhilia, partly to satisfy ethnic minority voters who wanteds to bring family over, and partly in reaction to racists. Far from all immigrants vote Labour (many Eastern Europeans are natural Conservatives, for instance),
2. It's perfectly obvious that one reason that many WWC voters are disillusioned with the party is this issue because they feel economically (or otherwise) threatened by mass immigration. It's less obvious that a moderate shift on this would bring them back.
3. Non-EU migration is no longer easy, nor is it automatically supported by ethnic minorities. Virtually nobody is in favour of unlimited immigrstion.
4. Many in the party like the cultural side of immigration - diversity etc. This is Jeremy's position (and mine), but he also hasn't endorsed unlimited immigration, merely observed correctly that it is/was a condition of EU membership. If we're no longer members, change is an option.

I'd expect the party to favour something on points-based lines at the next election, while flatly rejecting Trump-like hostility to Muslims or any other particular groups. I think that's also where the public mostly is. But those voters who feel it's the dominant issue will probably go UKIP anyway.

SouthamObserver said:

Ha, ha ...
https://twitter.com/chrismcsh/status/748035604441600000

Starting to think the party is actually better off, splitting. Become the Progressive Party/Democratic Party with a Chuka/Luciana centrist leader and woo Tory Europhile left wingers and Liberals. Short term pain for potential long term gain. The Labour Party is screwed. Corbyn will go down in history as the man who wantonly destroyed one of Britain's great parties of state through his gross narcissism.